Search results for: decision processes

Authors: Khushi, Simrat

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The study aims to investigate the relationship between emotions and employee's social cognition and decision-making among employees. The sample of the study was the total number of participants, which included employees from various industries and job positions. Research papers in the same area were reviewed, providing a comprehensive review of existing literature and theoretical frameworks and shedding light on the interpersonal effects of emotions in the workplace. It emphasizes how one worker's emotions can significantly impact the overall work environment and productivity as well as the work of a common phenomenon known as Emotional contagion at the workplace, affecting social interactions and group dynamics. Therefore, this study concludes that Emotional contagion can lead to a ripple effect within the workplace, influencing the overall atmosphere and productivity. Emotions can shape how employees process information and make choices, ultimately impacting organizational outcomes.

Keywords: employee decision making, social cognition, emotions, industry, emotional contagion, workplace dynamics

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Authors: Sahar Navabakhsh, Rokia Raslan, Yair Schwartz

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Decision-making on regeneration of housing estates, whether to refurbish or re-build, has been mostly triggered by economic factors. To enable sustainable growth, it is vital that environmental and social impacts of different scenarios are also taken into account. The methodology used to include all the three sustainable development pillars is called Life Cycle Sustainability Assessment (LCSA), which comprises of Life Cycle Assessment (LCA) for the assessment of environmental impacts of buildings. Current practice of LCA is regularly conducted post design stage and by sustainability experts. Not only is undertaking an LCA at this stage less effective, but issues such as the limited scope for the definition and assessment of environmental impacts, the implication of changes in the system boundary and the alteration of each of the variable metrics, employment of different Life Cycle Impact Assessment Methods and use of various inventory data for Life Cycle Inventory Analysis can result in considerably contrasting results. Given the niche nature and scarce specialist domain of LCA of buildings, the majority of the stakeholders do not contribute to the generation or interpretation of the impact assessment, and the results can be generated and interpreted subjectively due to the mentioned uncertainties. For an effective and democratic assessment of environmental impacts, different stakeholders, and in particular the community and design team should collaborate in the process of data collection, assessment and analysis. This paper examines and evaluates a participatory approach to LCSA through the analysis of a case study of a housing estate in South West London. The study has been conducted throughout tier-based collaborative methods to collect and share data through surveys and co-design workshops with the community members and the design team as the main stakeholders. The assessment of lifecycle impacts is conducted throughout the process and has influenced the decision-making on the design of the Community Plan. The evaluation concludes better assessment transparency and outcome, alongside other socio-economic benefits of identifying and engaging the most contributive stakeholders in the process of conducting LCSA.

Keywords: life cycle assessment, participatory LCA, life cycle sustainability assessment, participatory processes, decision-making, housing estate regeneration

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Authors: Bahman Ghaderi, Hedayat Hosseini, Parviz Kafche

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The role of knowledge management processes in achieving the strategic goals of organizations is crucial. To this end, understanding the relationship between knowledge management processes and different aspects of strategic thinking (followed by long-term organizational planning) should be considered. This research examines the relationship between each of the five knowledge management processes (creation, storage, transfer, audit, and deployment) with each dimension of strategic thinking (vision, creativity, thinking, communication and analysis) in one of the major sectors of the food industry in Iran. In this research, knowledge management and its dimensions (knowledge acquisition, knowledge storage, knowledge transfer, knowledge auditing, and finally knowledge utilization) as independent variables and strategic thinking and its dimensions (creativity, systematic thinking, vision, strategic analysis, and strategic communication) are considered as the dependent variable. The statistical population of this study consisted of 245 managers and employees of Minoo Food Industrial Group in Tehran. In this study, a simple random sampling method was used, and data were collected by a questionnaire designed by the research team. Data were analyzed using SPSS 21 software. LISERL software is also used for calculating and drawing models and graphs. Among the factors investigated in the present study, knowledge storage with 0.78 had the most effect, and knowledge transfer with 0.62 had the least effect on knowledge management and thus on strategic thinking.

Keywords: knowledge management, strategic thinking, knowledge management processes, food industry

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Authors: Ainura Kairanbayeva

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Currently, the issue of maintaining the operational condition of highways at the required level is acute in Kazakhstan. The impact of landslides on the state of the road industry in Kazakhstan has been poorly studied. This article presents the classification of natural hazards and examines the influence of atmospheric natural processes on the operational condition of the sections of the highway "Ayusai–Kosmostantsia" passing along the mountain slopes of the Trans-Ili Alatau. According to the results of field studies, multi-turn reflected cracks have been identified, this is also due to the fact that the base of the road is made of a sand-gravel mixture and is not treated with reinforcing additives and the actual density of the asphalt concrete pavement is below regulatory requirements.

Keywords: building materials and products, construction of highways and engineering structures, construction processes, displacements of the earth's surface, geodynamic processes

Procedia PDF Downloads 61

Authors: Pejman Hosseinioun, Hasan Shakeri, Ghasem Ghorbanirostam

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In recent years, we have seen an increasing importance of research and study on knowledge source, decision support systems, data mining and procedure of knowledge discovery in data bases and it is considered that each of these aspects affects the others. In this article, we have merged information source and knowledge source to suggest a knowledge based system within limits of management based on storing and restoring of knowledge to manage information and improve decision making and resources. In this article, we have used method of data mining and Apriori algorithm in procedure of knowledge discovery one of the problems of Apriori algorithm is that, a user should specify the minimum threshold for supporting the regularity. Imagine that a user wants to apply Apriori algorithm for a database with millions of transactions. Definitely, the user does not have necessary knowledge of all existing transactions in that database, and therefore cannot specify a suitable threshold. Our purpose in this article is to improve Apriori algorithm. To achieve our goal, we tried using fuzzy logic to put data in different clusters before applying the Apriori algorithm for existing data in the database and we also try to suggest the most suitable threshold to the user automatically.

Keywords: decision support system, data mining, knowledge discovery, data discovery, fuzzy logic

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Authors: Alice Brites, Gerd Sparovek, Jean Paul Metzger, Ricardo Rodrigues

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The segregation between science and policy in decision making process hinders nature conservation efforts worldwide. Scientists have been criticized for not producing information that leads to effective solutions for environmental problems. In an attempt to bridge this gap between science and practice, we conducted a project aimed at supporting the implementation of the Brazilian Native Vegetation Protection Law (NVPL) implementation in São Paulo State (SP), Brazil. To do so, we conducted multiple open meetings with the stakeholders involved in this discussion. Throughout this process, we raised stakeholders' demands for scientific information and brought feedbacks about our findings. However, our main scientific advice was not taken into account during the NVPL implementation in SP. The NVPL has a mechanism that exempts landholders who converted native vegetation without offending the legislation in place at the time of the conversion from restoration requirements. We found out that there were no accurate spatialized data for native vegetation cover before the 1960s. Thus, the initial benchmark for the mechanism application should be the 1965 Brazilian Forest Act. Even so, SP kept the 1934 Brazilian Forest Act as the initial legal benchmark for the law application. This decision implies the use of a probabilistic native vegetation map that has uncertainty and subjectivity as its intrinsic characteristics, thus its use can lead to legal queries, corruption, and an unfair benefit application. But why this decision was made even after the scientific advice was vastly divulgated? We raised some possible reasons to explain it. First, the decision was made during a government transition, showing that circumstantial political events can overshadow scientific arguments. Second, the debate about the NVPL in SP was not pacified and powerful stakeholders could benefit from the confusion created by this decision. Finally, the native vegetation protection mechanism is a complex issue, with many technical aspects that can be hard to understand for a non-specialized courtroom, such as the one that made the final decision at SP. This example shows that science and decision-makers still have a long way ahead to improve their way to interact and that science needs to find its way to be heard above the political buzz.

Keywords: Brazil, forest act, science-based dialogue, science-policy interface

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Authors: Yin-Yann Chen, Tzu-Ling Chen

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This study presents the case of an actual Taiwanese semiconductor assembly and testing manufacturer. Three major bottleneck manufacturing processes, namely, die bond, wire bond, and molding, are analyzed to determine how to use finite resources to achieve the optimal capacity allocation. A medium-term capacity allocation planning model is developed by considering the optimal total profit to satisfy the promised volume demanded by customers and to obtain the best migration decision among production lines for machines and tools. Finally, sensitivity analysis based on the actual case is provided to explore the effect of various parameter levels.

Keywords: capacity planning, capacity allocation, machine migration, resource configuration

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Authors: Ahmed Emad Ahmed

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This paper aims to address the concept of human resources information systems (HRIS) and how to link it to new technologies such as artificial intelligence (AI) to be implemented in two human resources processes. A literature view has been collected to cover the main points related to HRIS, AI, and BC. A study case has been presented by generating a random HRIS to apply some AI operations to it. Then, an algorithm was applied to the database to complete some human resources processes, including training and performance appraisal, using a pre-trained AI model. After that, outputs and results have been presented and discussed briefly. Finally, a conclusion has been introduced to show the ability of new technologies such as AI and ML to be applied to the human resources management processes.

Keywords: human resources new technologies, HR artificial intelligence, HRIS AI models, construction AI HRIS

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Authors: Moustafa Osman Mohammed

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This paper will explore formation of HCl aerosol at atmospheric boundary layers and encourages the uptake of environmental modeling systems (EMSs) as a practice evaluation of gaseous emissions (“framework measures”) from small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs). The conceptual model predicts greenhouse gas emissions to ecological points beyond landfill site operations. It focuses on incorporation traditional knowledge into baseline information for both measurement data and the mathematical results, regarding parameters influence model variable inputs. The paper has simplified parameters of aerosol processes based on the more complex aerosol process computations. The simple model can be implemented to both Gaussian and Eulerian rural dispersion models. Aerosol processes considered in this study were (i) the coagulation of particles, (ii) the condensation and evaporation of organic vapors, and (iii) dry deposition. The chemical transformation of gas-phase compounds is taken into account photochemical formulation with exposure effects according to HCl concentrations as starting point of risk assessment. The discussion set out distinctly aspect of sustainability in reflection inputs, outputs, and modes of impact on the environment. Thereby, models incorporate abiotic and biotic species to broaden the scope of integration for both quantification impact and assessment risks. The later environmental obligations suggest either a recommendation or a decision of what is a legislative should be achieved for mitigation measures of landfill gas (LFG) ultimately.

Keywords: air pollution, landfill emission, environmental management, monitoring/methods and impact assessment

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Authors: R. Hellmuth

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The orientation of flexibility and adaptability with regard to factory planning is at machine and process level. Factory buildings are not the focus of current research. Factory planning has the task of designing products, plants, processes, organization, areas and the construction of a factory. The adaptability of a factory can be divided into three types: spatial, organizational and technical adaptability. Spatial adaptability indicates the ability to expand and reduce the size of a factory. Here, the area-related breathing capacity plays the essential role. It mainly concerns the factory site, the plant layout and the production layout. The organizational ability to change enables the change and adaptation of organizational structures and processes. This includes structural and process organization as well as logistical processes and principles. New and reconfigurable operating resources, processes and factory buildings are referred to as technical adaptability. These three types of adaptability can be regarded independently of each other as undirected potentials of different characteristics. If there is a need for change, the types of changeability in the change process are combined to form a directed, complementary variable that makes change possible. When planning adaptability, importance must be attached to a balance between the types of adaptability. The vision of the intelligent factory building and the 'Internet of Things' presupposes the comprehensive digitalization of the spatial and technical environment. Through connectivity, the factory building must be empowered to support a company's value creation process by providing media such as light, electricity, heat, refrigeration, etc. In the future, communication with the surrounding factory building will take place on a digital or automated basis. In the area of industry 4.0, the function of the building envelope belongs to secondary or even tertiary processes, but these processes must also be included in the communication cycle. An integrative view of a continuous communication of primary, secondary and tertiary processes is currently not yet available and is being developed with the aid of methods in this research work. A comparison of the digital twin from the point of view of production and the factory building will be developed. Subsequently, a tool will be elaborated to classify digital twins from the perspective of data, degree of visualization, and the trades. Thus a contribution is made to better integrate the secondary and tertiary processes in a factory into the added value.

Keywords: adaptability, digital factory twin, factory planning, industry 4.0

Procedia PDF Downloads 139

Authors: D. Pinto, L. Castro, M. L. Cruzat, S. Barros, J. Gironás, C. Oberli, M. Torres, C. Escauriaza, A. Cipriano

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Flash floods, together with landslides, are a common natural threat for people living in mountainous regions and foothills. One way to deal with this constant menace is the use of Early Warning Systems, which have become a very important mitigation strategy for natural disasters. In this work, we present our proposal for a pilot Flash Flood Early Warning System for Santiago, Chile, the first stage of a more ambitious project that in a future stage shall also include early warning of landslides. To give a context for our approach, we first analyze three existing Flash Flood Early Warning Systems, focusing on their general architectures. We then present our proposed system, with main focus on the decision support system, a system that integrates empirical models and fuzzy expert systems to achieve reliable risk estimations.

Keywords: decision support systems, early warning systems, flash flood, natural hazard

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Authors: Hiba El Assibi

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This study aims to weakly solve Kalah, a two-player board game, by developing a start-to-finish winning strategy using an optimized Minimax algorithm with Alpha-Beta Pruning. In weakly solving Kalah, our focus is on creating an optimal strategy from the game's beginning rather than analyzing every possible position. The project will explore additional enhancements like symmetry checking and code optimizations to speed up the decision-making process. This approach is expected to give insights into efficient strategy formulation in board games and potentially help create games with a fair distribution of outcomes. Furthermore, this research provides a unique perspective on human versus Artificial Intelligence decision-making in strategic games. By comparing the AI-generated optimal moves with human choices, we can explore how seemingly advantageous moves can, in the long run, be harmful, thereby offering a deeper understanding of strategic thinking and foresight in games. Moreover, this paper discusses the evaluation of our strategy against existing methods, providing insights on performance and computational efficiency. We also discuss the scalability of our approach to the game, considering different board sizes (number of pits and stones) and rules (different variations) and studying how that affects performance and complexity. The findings have potential implications for the development of AI applications in strategic game planning, enhancing our understanding of human cognitive processes in game settings, and offer insights into creating balanced and engaging game experiences.

Keywords: minimax, alpha beta pruning, transposition tables, weakly solving, game theory

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Authors: K. Allaw, J. Adjizian Gerard, M. Chehayeb, A. Raad, W. Fahs, A. Badran, A. Fakherdin, H. Madi, N. Badaro Saliba

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Population estimation using Geographic Information System (GIS) and remote sensing faces many obstacles such as the determination of permanent residents. A permanent resident is an individual who stays and works during all four seasons in his village. So, all those who move towards other cities or villages are excluded from this category. The aim of this study is to identify the factors affecting the percentage of permanent residents in a village and to determine the attributed weight to each factor. To do so, six factors have been chosen (slope, precipitation, temperature, number of services, time to Central Business District (CBD) and the proximity to conflict zones) and each one of those factors has been evaluated using one of the following data: the contour lines map of 50 m, the precipitation map, four temperature maps and data collected through surveys. The weighting procedure has been done using decision tree method. As a result of this procedure, temperature (50.8%) and percentage of precipitation (46.5%) are the most influencing factors.

Keywords: remote sensing, GIS, permanent residence, decision tree, Lebanon

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Authors: Yavuz Unal, Kemal Polat, H. Erdinc Kocer

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In this study, a decision support system comprising three stages has been proposed to detect the disc abnormalities of the lumbar region. In the first stage named the feature extraction, T2-weighted sagittal and axial Magnetic Resonance Images (MRI) were taken from 55 people and then 27 appearance and shape features were acquired from both sagittal and transverse images. In the second stage named the feature weighting process, k-means clustering based feature weighting (KMCBFW) proposed by Gunes et al. Finally, in the third stage named the classification process, the classifier algorithms including multi-layer perceptron (MLP- neural network), support vector machine (SVM), Naïve Bayes, and decision tree have been used to classify whether the subject has lumbar disc or not. In order to test the performance of the proposed method, the classification accuracy (%), sensitivity, specificity, precision, recall, f-measure, kappa value, and computation times have been used. The best hybrid model is the combination of k-means clustering based feature weighting and decision tree in the detecting of lumbar disc disease based on both sagittal and axial MR images.

Keywords: lumbar disc abnormality, lumbar MRI, lumbar spine, hybrid models, hybrid features, k-means clustering based feature weighting

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Authors: M. Shoukath Ali, Rajendra Prasad Singh

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Game Theory approaches and their application in improving the performance of Wireless Sensor Networks (WSNs) are discussed in this paper. The mathematical modeling and analysis of WSNs may have low success rate due to the complexity of topology, modeling, link quality, etc. However, Game Theory is a field, which can efficiently use to analyze the WSNs. Game Theory is related to applied mathematics that describes and analyzes interactive decision situations. Game theory has the ability to model independent, individual decision makers whose actions affect the surrounding decision makers. The outcome of complex interactions among rational entities can be predicted by a set of analytical tools. However, the rationality demands a stringent observance to a strategy based on measured of perceived results. Researchers are adopting game theory approaches to model and analyze leading wireless communication networking issues, which includes QoS, power control, resource sharing, etc.

Keywords: wireless sensor network, game theory, cooperative game theory, non-cooperative game theory

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Authors: Guoqian Ren, Haijiang Li, Jisong Zhang

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Over the past 40 years, urban development has undergone large-scale, high-speed expansion, beyond what was previously considered normal and in a manner not proportionally related to population growth or physical considerations. With more scientific and refined decision-making in the urban construction process, new urbanization approaches, aligned with public-private partnerships (PPPs) which evolved in the early 1990s, have become acceptable and, in some situations, even better solutions to outstanding urban municipal construction projects, especially in developing countries. However, as the main driving force to deal with urban public services, PPPs are still problematic regarding value for money (VFM) process in most large-scale construction projects. This paper therefore reviews recent PPP articles in popular project management journals and relevant toolkits, published in the last 10 years, to identify the indicators that influence VFM within PPPs across regions. With increasing concerns about profitability and environmental and social impacts, the current PPP structure requires a more integrated platform to manage multi-performance project life cycles. Building information modelling (BIM), a popular approach to the procurement process in AEC sectors, provides the potential to ensure VFM while also working in tandem with the semantic approach to holistically measure life cycle costs (LCC) and achieve better sustainability. This paper suggests that BIM applied to the entire PPP life cycle could support holistic decision-making regarding VFM processes and thus meet service targets.

Keywords: public-private partnership, value for money, building information modelling, semantic approach

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Authors: Leila Mohammadi

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This paper presents the impact of persuasive communication implemented by fertility clinics websites, and how this information influences women at their decision-making for undertaking this procedure. The influential factors for women decisions to do social egg freezing (SEF) are analyzed from a framing theory perspective, with a specific focus on the impact of persuasive information on women’s decision making. This study follows a quantitative approach. A two-phase survey has been conducted to examine the interest rate to undertake SEF. In the first phase, a questionnaire was available during a month (May 2015) to women to answer whether or not they knew enough information of this process, with a total of 230 answers. The second phase took place in the two last weeks of July 2015. All the respondents were invited to a seminars called ‘All about egg freezing’ and afretwards they were requested to answer the second questionnaire. After the seminar, in which they were given an extensive amount of information about egg freezing, a total of 115 women replied the questionnaire. The collected data during this process were analyzed using descriptive statistics. Most of the respondents changed their opinion in the second questionaire which was after receiving information. Although in the first questionnaire their self-evaluation of having knowledge about this process and the implemented technologies was very high, they realized that they still need to access more information from different sources in order to be able to make a decision. The study reached the conclusion that persuasive and framed information by clinics would affect the decisions of these women. Despite the reasons women have to do egg freezing and their motivations behind it, providing people necessary information and unprejudiced data about this process (such as its positive and negative aspects, requirements, suppositions, possibilities and consequences) would help them to make a more precise and reasonable decision about what they are buying.

Keywords: decision making, fertility clinics, framing theory, persuasive information, social egg freezing

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Authors: Javad Jozaei, Rob G. Bell, Paula Blackett, Scott A. Stephens

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In the last few decades, Social Vulnerability Assessment (SVA) has been a favoured means in evaluating the susceptibility of social systems to drivers of change, including climate change and natural disasters. However, the application of SVA to inform responsive and practical strategies to deal with uncertain climate change impacts has always been challenging, and typically agencies resort back to conventional risk/vulnerability assessment. These challenges include complex nature of social vulnerability concepts which influence its applicability, complications in identifying and measuring social vulnerability determinants, the transitory social dynamics in a changing environment, and unpredictability of the scenarios of change that impacts the regime of vulnerability (including contention of when these impacts might emerge). Research suggests that the conventional quantitative approaches in SVA could not appropriately address these problems; hence, the outcomes could potentially be misleading and not fit for addressing the ongoing uncertain rise in risk. The second phase of New Zealand’s Resilience to Nature’s Challenges (RNC2) is developing a forward-looking vulnerability assessment framework and methodology that informs the decision-making and policy development in dealing with the changing coastal systems and accounts for complex dynamics of New Zealand’s coastal systems (including socio-economic, environmental and cultural). Also, RNC2 requires the new methodology to consider plausible drivers of incremental and unknowable changes, create mechanisms to enhance social and community resilience; and fits the New Zealand’s multi-layer governance system. This paper aims to analyse the conventional approaches and methodologies in SVA and offer recommendations for more responsive approaches that inform adaptive decision-making and policy development in practice. The research adopts a qualitative research design to examine different aspects of the conventional SVA processes, and the methods to achieve the research objectives include a systematic review of the literature and case study methods. We found that the conventional quantitative, reductionist and deterministic mindset in the SVA processes -with a focus the impacts of rapid stressors (i.e. tsunamis, floods)- show some deficiencies to account for complex dynamics of social-ecological systems (SES), and the uncertain, long-term impacts of incremental drivers. The paper will focus on addressing the links between resilience and vulnerability; and suggests how resilience theory and its underpinning notions such as the adaptive cycle, panarchy, and system transformability could address these issues, therefore, influence the perception of vulnerability regime and its assessment processes. In this regard, it will be argued that how a shift of paradigm from ‘specific resilience’, which focuses on adaptive capacity associated with the notion of ‘bouncing back’, to ‘general resilience’, which accounts for system transformability, regime shift, ‘bouncing forward’, can deliver more effective strategies in an era characterised by ongoing change and deep uncertainty.

Keywords: complexity, social vulnerability, resilience, transformation, uncertain risks

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Authors: Evgeni Baratashvili, Giorgi Sulashvili, Malkhaz Sulashvili, Bela Khotenashvili, Irma Makharashvili

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The most investment decision-making principle of regional travel firm's management and its partner is the formulation of the aims of investment programs. The investments can be targeted in order to reduce the firm's production costs and to purchase good transport equipment. In attractive region, in order to develop firm’s activities, the investment program can be targeted for increasing of provided services. That is the case where the sales already have been used in the market. The investment can be directed to establish the affiliate firms, branches, to construct new hotels, to create food and trade enterprises, to develop entertainment enterprises, etc. Economic development is of great importance to regional development. International experience shows that inclusive economic growth largely depends on not only the national, but also regional development planning and implementation of a strong and competitive regions. Regional development is considered as the key factor in achieving national success. Establishing a modern institute separate entities if the pilot centers will constitute a promotion, international best practice-based public-private partnership to encourage the use of models. Regional policy directions and strategies adopted in accordance with the successful implementation of major importance in the near future specific action plans for inclusive development and implementation, which will be provided in accordance with the effective monitoring and evaluation tools and measurable indicators combined. All of these above-mentioned investments are characterized by different levels, which are related to the following fact: How successful tourism marketing service is, whether it is able to determine the proper market's reaction according to the particular firm's actions. In the sphere of regional tourism industry and in the investment decision possible variants it can be developed the some specter of models. Each of the models can be modified and specified according to the situation, and characteristic skills of the existing problem that must be solved. Besides, while choosing the proper model, the process is affected by the regulation system of economic processes. Also, it is influenced by liberalization quality and by the level of state participation.

Keywords: net income of travel firm, economic growth, Investment profitability, regional development, tourist product, tourism development

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Authors: Anahita Farhang Ghahfarokhi, Alessandro Berti, Wil M.P. van der Aalst

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Process mining provides ways to analyze business processes. Common process mining techniques consider the process as a whole. However, in real-life business processes, different behaviors exist that make the overall process too complex to interpret. Process comparison is a branch of process mining that isolates different behaviors of the process from each other by using process cubes. Process cubes organize event data using different dimensions. Each cell contains a set of events that can be used as an input to apply process mining techniques. Existing work on process cubes assume single case notions. However, in real processes, several case notions (e.g., order, item, package, etc.) are intertwined. Object-centric process mining is a new branch of process mining addressing multiple case notions in a process. To make a bridge between object-centric process mining and process comparison, we propose a process cube framework, which supports process cube operations such as slice and dice on object-centric event logs. To facilitate the comparison, the framework is integrated with several object-centric process discovery approaches.

Keywords: multidimensional process mining, mMulti-perspective business processes, OLAP, process cubes, process discovery, process mining

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Authors: Martha E. Aguiar-Barrera, Humberto Gutierrez-Pulido, Veronica Vargas-Alejo

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Identifying and modeling random phenomena is a fundamental cognitive process to understand and transform reality. Recognizing situations governed by chance and giving them a scientific interpretation, without being carried away by beliefs or intuitions, is a basic training for citizens. Hence the importance of generating teaching-learning processes, supported using technology, paying attention to model creation rather than only executing mathematical calculations. In order to develop the student's knowledge about basic probability distributions and decision making; in this work a model eliciting activity (MEA) is reported. The intention was applying the Model and Modeling Perspective to design an activity related to civil engineering that would be understandable for students, while involving them in its solution. Furthermore, the activity should imply a decision-making challenge based on sample data, and the use of the computer should be considered. The activity was designed considering the six design principles for MEA proposed by Lesh and collaborators. These are model construction, reality, self-evaluation, model documentation, shareable and reusable, and prototype. The application and refinement of the activity was carried out during three school cycles in the Probability and Statistics class for Civil Engineering students at the University of Guadalajara. The analysis of the way in which the students sought to solve the activity was made using audio and video recordings, as well as with the individual and team reports of the students. The information obtained was categorized according to the activity phase (individual or team) and the category of analysis (sample, linearity, probability, distributions, mechanization, and decision-making). With the results obtained through the MEA, four obstacles have been identified to understand and apply the binomial distribution: the first one was the resistance of the student to move from the linear to the probabilistic model; the second one, the difficulty of visualizing (infering) the behavior of the population through the sample data; the third one, viewing the sample as an isolated event and not as part of a random process that must be viewed in the context of a probability distribution; and the fourth one, the difficulty of decision-making with the support of probabilistic calculations. These obstacles have also been identified in literature on the teaching of probability and statistics. Recognizing these concepts as obstacles to understanding probability distributions, and that these do not change after an intervention, allows for the modification of these interventions and the MEA. In such a way, the students may identify themselves the erroneous solutions when they carrying out the MEA. The MEA also showed to be democratic since several students who had little participation and low grades in the first units, improved their participation. Regarding the use of the computer, the RStudio software was useful in several tasks, for example in such as plotting the probability distributions and to exploring different sample sizes. In conclusion, with the models created to solve the MEA, the Civil Engineering students improved their probabilistic knowledge and understanding of fundamental concepts such as sample, population, and probability distribution.

Keywords: linear model, models and modeling, probability, randomness, sample

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Authors: David Cook, Brynhildur Davidsdottir, Dadi. M. Kristofersson

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The approval of development projects with significant environmental impacts implies that the economic costs of the affected environmental resources must be less than the financial benefits, but such irreversible decisions are frequently made without ever attempting to estimate the monetary value of the losses. Due to this knowledge gap in the processes informing decision-making, development projects are commonly approved despite the potential for social welfare to be undermined. Heeding a repeated call by the OECD to commence economic accounting of environmental impacts as part of the cost-benefit analysis process for Icelandic energy projects, this paper sets out the results pertaining to the nation’s first two contingent valuation studies of geothermal areas likely to be developed in the near future. Interval regression using log-transformation was applied to estimate willingness to pay (WTP) for the preservation of the high-temperature Eldvörp and Hverahlíð fields. The estimated mean WTP was 8,333 and 7,122 ISK for Eldvörp and Hverahlíð respectively. Scaled up to the Icelandic population of national taxpayers, this equates to estimated total economic value of 2.10 and 1.77 billion ISK respectively. These results reinforce arguments in favour of accounting for the environmental impacts of Iceland’s future geothermal power projects as a mandatory component of the exploratory and production license application process. Further research is necessary to understand the economic impacts to specific ecosystem services associated with geothermal environments, particularly connected to changes in recreational amenity. In so doing, it would be possible to gain greater comprehension of the various components of total economic value, evolving understanding of why one geothermal area – in this case, Eldvörp – has a higher preservation value than another.

Keywords: decision-making, contingent valuation, geothermal energy, preservation

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Authors: D. Moser, D. Pinto, A. Cipriano

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A Disaster Management System (DMS) for countries with different disasters is very important. In the world different disasters like earthquakes, tsunamis, volcanic eruption, fire or other natural or man-made disasters occurs and have an effect on the population. It is also possible that two or more disasters arisen at the same time, this means to handle multi-risk situations. To handle such a situation a Decision Support System (DSS) based on multiagents is a suitable architecture. The most known DMSs deal with one (in the case of an earthquake-tsunami combination with two) disaster and often with one particular disaster. Nevertheless, a DSS helps for a better realtime response. Analyze the existing systems in the literature and expand them for multi-risk disasters to construct a well-organized system is the proposal of our work. The here shown work is an approach of a multi-risk system, which needs an architecture, and well-defined aims. In this moment our study is a kind of case study to analyze the way we have to follow to create our proposed system in the future.

Keywords: decision support system, disaster management system, multi-risk, multiagent system

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Authors: Ryspek Usubamatov, Tan San Chin, Sarken Kapaeva

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Productivity of the manufacturing systems depends on technological processes, a technical data of machines and a structure of systems. Technology is presented by the machining mode and data, a technical data presents reliability parameters and auxiliary time for discrete production processes. The term structure of manufacturing systems includes the number of serial and parallel production machines and links between them. Structures of manufacturing systems depend on the complexity of technological processes. Mathematical models of productivity rate for manufacturing systems are important attributes that enable to define best structure by criterion of a productivity rate. These models are important tool in evaluation of the economical efficiency for production systems.

Keywords: productivity, structure, manufacturing systems, structural design

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Authors: Sitthichai Laisema, Panita Wannapiroon

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This study is a research and development which is intended to: 1) design ubiquitous collaborative learning activities with virtual teams using CPS processes to develop creative thinking and collaboration skills, and 2) assess the suitability of the ubiquitous collaborative learning activities. Its methods are divided into 2 phases. Phase 1 is the design of ubiquitous collaborative learning activities with virtual teams using CPS processes, phase 2 is the assessment of the suitability of the learning activities. The samples used in this study are 5 professionals in the field of learning activity design, ubiquitous learning, information technology, creative thinking, and collaboration skills. The results showed that ubiquitous collaborative learning activities with virtual teams using CPS processes to develop creative thinking and collaboration skills consist of 3 main steps which are: 1) preparation before learning, 2) learning activities processing and 3) performance appraisal. The result of the learning activities suitability assessment from the professionals is in the highest level.

Keywords: ubiquitous learning, collaborative learning, virtual team, creative problem solving

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Authors: Ange Weinrabe, James Tran, Ian B. Hickie

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Risk-taking behaviour is common during youth. In the time between adolescence and early adulthood, young people (aged 15-25 years) are more vulnerable to mood disorders, such as anxiety and depression. What impact does an emerging mood disorder have on decision-making in youth at critical decision points in their lives? In this article, we explore the impact of risk and ambiguity on youth decision-making in a clinical setting using a well-known economic experiment. At two time points, separated by six to eight weeks, we measured risky and ambiguous choices concurrently with findings from three psychological questionnaires, the 10-item Kessler Psychological Distress Scale (K10), the 17-item Quick Inventory of Depressive Symptomatology Adolescent Version (QIDS-A17), and the 12-item Somatic and Psychological Health Report (SPHERE-12), for young help seekers aged 16-25 (n=30, mean age 19.22 years, 19 males). When first arriving for care, we found that 50% (n=15) of participants experienced severe anxiety (K10 ≥ 30) and were severely depressed (QIDS-A17 ≥ 16). In Session 2, taking attrition rates into account (n=5), we found that 44% (n=11) remained severe across the full battery of questionnaires. When applying multiple regression analyses of the pooled sample of observations (N=55), across both sessions, we found that participants who rated severely anxious avoided making risky decisions. We suggest there is some statistically significant (although weak) (p=0.09) relation between risk and severe anxiety scores as measured by K10. Our findings may support working with novel tools with which to evaluate youth experiencing an emerging mood disorder and their cognitive capacities influencing decision-making.

Keywords: anxiety, decision-making, risk, adolescence

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Authors: O. Starineca, I. Voronchuk

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Human Resources (HR) selection and training have various implementation possibilities depending on an organization’s abilities and peculiarities. We propose to base HR selection and training decisions about on a competence-based approach. HR selection and training of employees are topical as there is room for improvement in this field; therefore, the aim of the research is to propose rational decision-making approaches for an organization HR selection and training choice. Our proposals are based on the training development and competence-based selection approaches created within previous researches i.e. Analytic-Hierarchy Process (AHP) and Linear Programming. Literature review on non-formal education, competence-based selection, AHP form our theoretical background. Some educational service providers in Latvia offer employees training, e.g. motivation, computer skills, accounting, law, ethics, stress management, etc. that are topical for Public Administration. Competence-based approach is a rational base for rational decision-making in both HR selection and considering HR training.

Keywords: competence-based selection, human resource, training, decision-making

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Authors: Azlinda Saadon

Abstract:

This paper provides detail review on river bank erosion studies with respect to their processes, methods of measurements and factors governing river bank erosion. Bank erosion processes are commonly associated with river changes initiation and development, through width adjustment and planform evolution. It consists of two main types of erosion processes; basal erosion due to fluvial hydraulic force and bank failure under the influence of gravity. Most studies had only focused on one factor rather than integrating both factors. Evidences of previous works have shown integration between both processes of fluvial hydraulic force and bank failure. Bank failure is often treated as probabilistic phenomenon without having physical characteristics and the geotechnical aspects of the bank. This review summarizes the findings of previous investigators with respect to measurement techniques and prediction rates of river bank erosion through field investigation, physical model and numerical model approaches. Factors governing river bank erosion considering physical characteristics of fluvial erosion are defined.

Keywords: river bank erosion, bank erosion, dimensional analysis, geotechnical aspects

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Authors: K. Marciniak, M. Owoc

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Managers as decision-makers present in different sectors should be supported in efficient and more and more sophisticated way. There are huge number of software tools developed for such users starting from simple registering data from business area – typical for operational level of management – up to intelligent techniques with delivering knowledge - for tactical and strategic levels of management. There is a big challenge for software developers to create intelligent management dashboards allowing to support different decisions. In more advanced solutions there is even an option for selection of intelligent techniques useful for managers in particular decision-making phase in order to deliver valid knowledge-base. Such a tool (called Intelligent Dashboard for SME Managers–InKOM) is prepared in the Business Intelligent framework of Teta products. The aim of the paper is to present solutions assumed for InKOM concerning on management of stored knowledge bases offering for business managers. The paper is managed as follows. After short introduction concerning research context the discussed supporting managers via information systems the InKOM platform is presented. In the crucial part of paper a process of knowledge transformation and validation is demonstrated. We will focus on potential and real ways of knowledge-bases acquiring, storing and validation. It allows for formulation conclusions interesting from knowledge engineering point of view.

Keywords: business intelligence, decision support systems, knowledge management, knowledge transformation, knowledge validation, managerial systems

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Authors: Pavel E. Golosov, Vladimir I. Gorelov, Oksana L. Karelova

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There are visible changes in the world organization, environment and health of national conscience that create a background for discussion on possible redefinition of global, state and regional management goals. Authors apply the sustainable development criteria to a hierarchical management scheme that is to lead the world community to non-contradictory growth. Concrete definitions are discussed in respect of decision-making process representing the state mostly. With the help of system analysis it is highlighted how to understand who would carry the distinctive sign of world leadership in the nearest future.

Keywords: decision-making, information technology, public administration

Procedia PDF Downloads 491