Search results for: shape prediction

Authors: Nuwan Kuruwitaarachchi, M. K. M. Peiris, C. N. Madawala, K. M. A. R. Perera, V. U. N Perera

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Dealing with businesses with the foreign market always took a special place in a country’s economy. Political and social factors came into play making currency rate changes fluctuate rapidly. Currency rate prediction has become an important factor for larger international businesses since large amounts of money exchanged between countries. This research focuses on comparing the accuracy of mainly three models; Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA), Artificial Neural Networks(ANN) and Support Vector Machines(SVM). series of data import, export, USD currency exchange rate respect to LKR has been selected for training using above mentioned algorithms. After training the data set and comparing each algorithm, it was able to see that prediction in SVM performed better than other models. It was improved more by combining SVM and SVR models together.

Keywords: ARIMA, ANN, FFNN, RMSE, SVM, SVR

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Authors: M. Pienaar, J. W. Odendaal, J. C. Smit, J. Joubert

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Simulations are commonly used to predict the bistatic radar cross section (RCS) of military targets since characterization measurements can be expensive and time consuming. It is thus important to accurately predict the bistatic RCS of targets. Computational electromagnetic (CEM) methods can be used for bistatic RCS prediction. CEM methods are divided into full-wave and asymptotic methods. Full-wave methods are numerical approximations to the exact solution of Maxwell’s equations. These methods are very accurate but are computationally very intensive and time consuming. Asymptotic techniques make simplifying assumptions in solving Maxwell's equations and are thus less accurate but require less computational resources and time. Asymptotic techniques can thus be very valuable for the prediction of bistatic RCS of electrically large targets, due to the decreased computational requirements. This study extends previous work by validating the accuracy of asymptotic techniques to predict bistatic RCS through comparison with full-wave simulations as well as measurements. Validation is done with canonical structures as well as complex realistic aircraft models instead of only looking at a complex slicy structure. The slicy structure is a combination of canonical structures, including cylinders, corner reflectors and cubes. Validation is done over large bistatic angles and at different polarizations. Bistatic RCS measurements were conducted in a compact range, at the University of Pretoria, South Africa. The measurements were performed at different polarizations from 2 GHz to 6 GHz. Fixed bistatic angles of β = 30.8°, 45° and 90° were used. The measurements were calibrated with an active calibration target. The EM simulation tool FEKO was used to generate simulated results. The full-wave multi-level fast multipole method (MLFMM) simulated results together with the measured data were used as reference for validation. The accuracy of physical optics (PO) and geometrical optics (GO) was investigated. Differences relating to amplitude, lobing structure and null positions were observed between the asymptotic, full-wave and measured data. PO and GO were more accurate at angles close to the specular scattering directions and the accuracy seemed to decrease as the bistatic angle increased. At large bistatic angles PO did not perform well due to the shadow regions not being treated appropriately. PO also did not perform well for canonical structures where multi-bounce was the main scattering mechanism. PO and GO do not account for diffraction but these inaccuracies tended to decrease as the electrical size of objects increased. It was evident that both asymptotic techniques do not properly account for bistatic structural shadowing. Specular scattering was calculated accurately even if targets did not meet the electrically large criteria. It was evident that the bistatic RCS prediction performance of PO and GO depends on incident angle, frequency, target shape and observation angle. The improved computational efficiency of the asymptotic solvers yields a major advantage over full-wave solvers and measurements; however, there is still much room for improvement of the accuracy of these asymptotic techniques.

Keywords: asymptotic techniques, bistatic RCS, geometrical optics, physical optics

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Authors: Hassan Baji, Chun-Qing Li, Wei Yang

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Water seepage is one of the most common causes of damage in tunnel structures, which can cause direct and indirect e.g. reinforcement corrosion and calcium leaching damages. Estimation of water seepage or inflow is one of the main challenges in probabilistic assessment of tunnels. The methodology proposed in this study is an attempt for mathematically modeling the water seepage in tunnel structures and further predicting its service life. Using the time-dependent reliability, water seepage is formulated as a failure mode, which can be used for prediction of service life. Application of the formulated seepage failure mode to a case study tunnel is presented.

Keywords: water seepage, tunnels, time-dependent reliability, service life

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Authors: Fitri CaturLestari

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According to National Population and Family Planning Board (BKKBN), demographic bonus will occur in 2025-2035, when the number of people within the productive age bracket is higher than the number of elderly people and children. This time will be a gold moment for Indonesia to achieve maximum productivity and prosperity. But it will be a demographic bomb if it isn’t balanced by economic and social aspect considerations. Therefore it is important to make a prediction mapping of all provinces in Indonesia whether in demographic bomb or bonus condition after 100 years Indonesian independence. The purpose of this research were to make the demographic mapping based on the economic and social aspects of the provinces in Indonesia and categorizing them into demographic bomb and bonus condition. The research data are gained from Statistics Indonesia (BPS) as the secondary data. The multiregional component method, regression and quadrant analysis were used to predict the number of people, economic growth, Human Development Index (HDI), and gender equality in education and employment. There were different characteristic of provinces in Indonesia from economic aspect and social aspect. The west Indonesia was already better developed than the east one. The prediction result, many provinces in Indonesia will get demographic bonus but the others will get demographic bomb. It is important to prepare particular strategy to particular provinces with all of their characteristic based on the prediction result so the demographic bomb can be minimalized.

Keywords: demography, economic growth, gender, HDI

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Authors: Gonzalo Reyes, Magdalena Walczak, Esteban Ramos-Moore, Jorge Ramos-Grez

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Metal additive manufacture technologies have gained strong support and acceptance as a promising and alternative method to manufacture high performance complex geometry products. The main purpose of the present work is to study the microstructure and phase transformation temperatures of Cu-Al-Ni shape memory alloys fabricated from a direct laser additive process using metallic powders as precursors. The potential application is to manufacture self-centering seismic dampers for earthquake protection of buildings out of a copper based alloy by an additive process. In this process, the Cu-Al-Ni alloy is melted, inside of a high temperature and vacuum chamber with the aid of a high power fiber laser under inert atmosphere. The laser provides the energy to melt the alloy powder layer. The process allows fabricating fully dense, oxygen-free Cu-Al-Ni specimens using different laser power levels, laser powder interaction times, furnace ambient temperatures, and cooling rates as well as modifying concentration of the alloying elements. Two sets of specimens were fabricated with a nominal composition of Cu-13Al-3Ni and Cu-13Al-4Ni in wt.%, however, semi-quantitative chemical analysis using EDX examination showed that the specimens’ resulting composition was closer to Cu-12Al-5Ni and Cu-11Al-8Ni, respectively. In spite of that fact, it is expected that the specimens should still possess shape memory behavior. To confirm this hypothesis, phase transformation temperatures will be measured using DSC technique, to look for martensitic and austenitic phase transformations at 150°C. So far, metallographic analysis of the specimens showed defined martensitic microstructures. Moreover, XRD technique revealed diffraction peaks corresponding to (0 0 18) and (1 2 8) planes, which are too associated with the presence of martensitic phase. We conclude that it would be possible to obtain fully dense Cu-Al-Ni alloys having shape memory effect behavior by direct laser fabrication process, and to advance into fabrication of self centering seismic dampers by a controllable metal additive manufacturing process.

Keywords: Cu-Al-Ni alloys, direct laser fabrication, shape memory alloy, self-centering seismic dampers

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Authors: Mahdad M’hamed, Belaidi Idir

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This paper develops a meshless approach, called Element Free Galerkin (EFG) method, which is based on the weak form Moving Least Squares (MLS) of the partial differential governing equations and employs the interpolation to construct the meshless shape functions. The variation weak form is used in the EFG where the trial and test functions are approximated bye the MLS approximation. Since the shape functions constructed by this discretization have the weight function property based on the randomly distributed points, the essential boundary conditions can be implemented easily. The local weak form of the partial differential governing equations is obtained by the weighted residual method within the simple local quadrature domain. The spline function with high continuity is used as the weight function. The presently developed EFG method is a truly meshless method, as it does not require the mesh, either for the construction of the shape functions, or for the integration of the local weak form. Several numerical examples of two-dimensional static structural analysis are presented to illustrate the performance of the present EFG method. They show that the EFG method is highly efficient for the implementation and highly accurate for the computation. The present method is used to analyze the static deflection of beams and plate hole

Keywords: numerical computation, element-free Galerkin (EFG), moving least squares (MLS), meshless methods

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Authors: Senol Dogan, Gunay Karli

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Identification of relevant publications based on a Medline query is time-consuming and error-prone. An all based process has the potential to solve this problem without any manual work. To the best of our knowledge, our study is the first to investigate the ability of machine learning to identify relevant articles accurately. 5 different machine learning algorithms were tested using 23 predictors based on several metadata fields attached to publications. We find that the Boosted model is the best-performing algorithm and its overall accuracy is 96%. In addition, specificity and sensitivity of the algorithm is 97 and 93%, respectively. As a result of the work, we understood that we can apply the same procedure to understand cancer gene expression big data.

Keywords: prediction of publications, machine learning, algorithms, bariatric surgery, comparison of algorithms, boosted, tree, logistic regression, ANN model

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Authors: Alexander P. Vazhenin, Mikhail M. Lavrentiev, Alexey A. Romanenko, Pavel V. Tatarintsev

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One of the problems obstructing effective tsunami modelling is the lack of information about initial wave shape at source. The existing methods; geological, sea radars, satellite images, contain an important part of uncertainty. Therefore, direct measurement of tsunami waves obtained at the deep water bottom peruse recorders is also used. In this paper we propose a new method to reconstruct the initial sea surface displacement at tsunami source by the measured signal (marigram) approximation with the help of linear combination of synthetic marigrams from the selected set of unit sources, calculated in advance. This method has demonstrated good precision and very high performance. The mathematical model and results of numerical tests are here described.

Keywords: numerical tests, orthogonal decomposition, Tsunami Initial Sea Surface Displacement

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Authors: Shauma L. Tamba

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This study examined whether morality is the most important aspect in actual behavior. The prediction was that people tend to behave in line with moral (as compared to competence) norms, especially when such norms are presented by their ingroup. The actual behavior that was tested was support for a military intervention without a mandate from the UN. In addition, this study also examined whether identification with the ingroup and religion moderated the effect of group and norm on support for the norm that was prescribed by their ingroup. The prediction was that those who identified themselves higher with the ingroup moral would show a higher support for the norm. Furthermore, the prediction was also that those who have religion would show a higher support for the norm in the ingroup moral rather than competence. In an online survey, participants were asked to read a scenario in which a military intervention without a mandate was framed as either the moral (but stupid) or smart (but immoral) thing to do by members of their own (ingroup) or another (outgroup) society. This study found that when people identified themselves with the smart (but immoral) norm, they showed a higher support for the norm. However, when people identified themselves with the moral (but stupid) norm, they tend to show a lesser support towards the norm. Most of the results in the study did not support the predictions. Possible explanations and implications are discussed.

Keywords: morality, competence, ingroup identification, religion, group norm

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Authors: Nima Dastanboo, Xiao-Qing Li, Hamed Gharibdoost

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The purpose of this study is to investigate about the geological properties ahead of a tunnel face with using Electrical Resistivity Tomography ERT and Tunnel Seismic Prediction TSP303 methods. In deep tunnels with hydro-geological conditions, it is important to study the geological structures of the region before excavating tunnels. Otherwise, it would lead to unexpected accidents that impose serious damage to the project. For constructing Nosoud tunnel in west of Iran, the ERT and TSP303 methods are employed to predict the geological conditions dynamically during the excavation. In this paper, based on the engineering background of Nosoud tunnel, the important results of applying these methods are discussed. This work demonstrates seismic method and electrical tomography as two geophysical techniques that are able to detect a tunnel. The results of these two methods were being in agreement with each other but the results of TSP303 are more accurate and quality. In this case, the TSP 303 method was a useful tool for predicting unstable geological structures ahead of the tunnel face during excavation. Thus, using another geophysical method together with TSP303 could be helpful as a decision support in excavating, especially in complicated geological conditions.

Keywords: tunnel seismic prediction (TSP303), electrical resistivity tomography (ERT), seismic wave, velocity analysis, low-velocity zones

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Authors: Osman Adiguzel

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Shape memory alloys take place in a class of smart materials by exhibiting a peculiar property called the shape memory effect. This property is characterized by the recoverability of two certain shapes of material at different temperatures. These materials are often called smart materials due to their functionality and their capacity of responding to changes in the environment. Shape memory materials are used as shape memory devices in many interdisciplinary fields such as medicine, bioengineering, metallurgy, building industry and many engineering fields. The shape memory effect is performed thermally by heating and cooling after first cooling and stressing treatments, and this behavior is called thermoelasticity. This effect is based on martensitic transformations characterized by changes in the crystal structure of the material. The shape memory effect is the result of successive thermally and stress-induced martensitic transformations. Shape memory alloys exhibit thermoelasticity and superelasticity by means of deformation in the low-temperature product phase and high-temperature parent phase region, respectively. Superelasticity is performed by stressing and releasing the material in the parent phase region. Loading and unloading paths are different in the stress-strain diagram, and the cycling loop reveals energy dissipation. The strain energy is stored after releasing, and these alloys are mainly used as deformation absorbent materials in control of civil structures subjected to seismic events, due to the absorbance of strain energy during any disaster or earthquake. Thermal-induced martensitic transformation occurs thermally on cooling, along with lattice twinning with cooperative movements of atoms by means of lattice invariant shears, and ordered parent phase structures turn into twinned martensite structures, and twinned structures turn into the detwinned structures by means of stress-induced martensitic transformation by stressing the material in the martensitic condition. Thermal induced transformation occurs with the cooperative movements of atoms in two opposite directions, <110 > -type directions on the {110} - type planes of austenite matrix which is the basal plane of martensite. Copper-based alloys exhibit this property in the metastable β-phase region, which has bcc-based structures at high-temperature parent phase field. Lattice invariant shear and twinning is not uniform in copper-based ternary alloys and gives rise to the formation of complex layered structures, depending on the stacking sequences on the close-packed planes of the ordered parent phase lattice. In the present contribution, x-ray diffraction and transmission electron microscopy (TEM) studies were carried out on two copper-based CuAlMn and CuZnAl alloys. X-ray diffraction profiles and electron diffraction patterns reveal that both alloys exhibit superlattice reflections inherited from the parent phase due to the displacive character of martensitic transformation. X-ray diffractograms taken in a long time interval show that diffraction angles and intensities of diffraction peaks change with the aging duration at room temperature. In particular, some of the successive peak pairs providing a special relation between Miller indices come close to each other. This result refers to the rearrangement of atoms in a diffusive manner.

Keywords: shape memory effect, martensitic transformation, reversibility, superelasticity, twinning, detwinning

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Authors: Behzad Behnia, Noah LaRussa-Trott

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In recent years, fibers have been successfully used as an additive to reinforce asphalt concrete materials and to enhance the sustainability and resiliency of transportation infrastructure. Roads covered with fiber-reinforced asphalt concrete (FRAC) require less frequent maintenance and tend to have a longer lifespan. The present work investigates the application of sasobit-coated aramid fibers in asphalt pavements and employs machine learning to develop prediction models to evaluate the cracking performance of FRAC materials. For the experimental part of the study, the effects of several important parameters such as fiber content, fiber length, and testing temperature on fracture characteristics of FRAC mixtures were thoroughly investigated. Two mechanical performance tests, i.e., the disk-shaped compact tension [DC(T)] and indirect tensile [ID(T)] strength tests, as well as the non-destructive acoustic emission test, were utilized to experimentally measure the cracking behavior of the FRAC material in both macro and micro level, respectively. The experimental results were used to train the supervised machine learning approach in order to establish prediction models for fracture performance of the FRAC mixtures in the field. Experimental results demonstrated that adding fibers improved the overall fracture performance of asphalt concrete materials by increasing their fracture energy, tensile strength and lowering their 'embrittlement temperature'. FRAC mixtures containing long-size fibers exhibited better cracking performance than regular-size fiber mixtures. The developed prediction models of this study could be easily employed by pavement engineers in the assessment of the FRAC pavements.

Keywords: fiber reinforced asphalt concrete, machine learning, cracking performance tests, prediction model

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Authors: Han Ding, Wang Xiaoliang, Duan Dengping

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During the process of airship design, the layout and the geometric shape of the hull and fins are crucial to the motion characteristics of the airship. In this paper, we obtained the quantification motion sensitivity of the airship to geometric parameters through turning circles and horizontal/vertical zigzag maneuvers by the parameterization of airship shape and building the dynamic model using Lagrangian approach and MATLAB Simulink program. In the dynamics simulation program, the affection of geometric parameters to the mass, center of gravity, moments of inertia, product of inertia, added mass and the aerodynamic forces and moments have been considered.

Keywords: airship, Lagrangian approach, turning circles, horizontal/vertical zigzag maneuvers

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Authors: Yusuf S. Dambatta, Ahmed A. D. Sarhan

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Fused deposition modelling (FDM) is one of the most prominent rapid prototyping (RP) technologies which is being used to efficiently fabricate CAD 3D geometric models. However, the process is coupled with many drawbacks, of which the surface quality of the manufactured RP parts is among. Hence, studies relating to improving the surface roughness have been a key issue in the field of RP research. In this work, a technique of modelling the surface roughness in FDM is presented. Using experimentally measured surface roughness response of the FDM parts, an ANFIS prediction model was developed to obtain the surface roughness in the FDM parts using the main critical process parameters that affects the surface quality. The ANFIS model was validated and compared with experimental test results.

Keywords: surface roughness, fused deposition modelling (FDM), adaptive neuro fuzzy inference system (ANFIS), orientation

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Authors: Aneta Oblouková, Eva Vítková

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The article deals with the issue of water and sewerage charge rate prices in the Czech Republic. The research is specifically focused on the analysis of the development of the average prices of water and sewerage charge rate in the Czech Republic in the years 1994-2021 and on the validation of the chosen methodology relevant for the prediction of the development of the average prices of water and sewerage charge rate in the Czech Republic. The research is based on data collection. The data for this research was obtained from the Czech Statistical Office. The aim of the paper is to validate the relevance of the mathematical linear trend estimate technique for the calculation of the predicted average prices of water and sewerage charge rates. The real values of the average prices of water and sewerage charge rates in the Czech Republic in the years 1994-2018 were obtained from the Czech Statistical Office and were converted into a mathematical equation. The same type of real data was obtained from the Czech Statistical Office for the years 2019-2021. Prediction of the average prices of water and sewerage charge rates in the Czech Republic in the years 2019-2021 were also calculated using a chosen method -a linear trend estimation technique. The values obtained from the Czech Statistical Office and the values calculated using the chosen methodology were subsequently compared. The research result is a validation of the chosen mathematical technique to be a suitable technique for this research.

Keywords: Czech Republic, linear trend estimation, price prediction, water and sewerage charge rate

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Authors: Malo Pocheau-Lesteven, Olivier Le Maître

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Engineering and optimisation of complex systems is often achieved through multi-disciplinary analysis of the system, where each subsystem is modeled and interacts with other subsystems to model the complete system. The coherence of the output of the different sub-systems is achieved through the use of compatibility constraints, which enforce the coupling between the different subsystems. Due to the complexity of some sub-systems and the computational cost of evaluating their respective models, it is often necessary to build surrogate models of these subsystems to allow repeated evaluation these subsystems at a relatively low computational cost. In this paper, gaussian processes are used, as their probabilistic nature is leveraged to evaluate the likelihood of satisfying the compatibility constraints. This paper presents infilling strategies to build accurate surrogate models of the subsystems in areas where they are likely to meet the compatibility constraint. It is shown that these infilling strategies can reduce the computational cost of building surrogate models for a given level of accuracy. An application of these methods to velocity prediction programs used in offshore racing naval architecture further demonstrates these method's applicability in a real engineering context. Also, some examples of the application of uncertainty quantification to field of naval architecture are presented.

Keywords: infilling strategy, gaussian process, multi disciplinary analysis, velocity prediction program

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Authors: Aragorn Joaquin Pineda Dela Cruz

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Road traffic congestion is continually deteriorating in Hong Kong. The largest contributing factor is the increase in vehicle fleet size, resulting in higher competition over the utilisation of road space. This study proposes a project that can process closed-circuit television images and videos to provide real-time traffic detection and prediction capabilities. Specifically, a deep-learning model involving computer vision techniques for video and image-based vehicle counting, then a separate model to detect and predict traffic congestion levels based on said data. State-of-the-art object detection models such as You Only Look Once and Faster Region-based Convolutional Neural Networks are tested and compared on closed-circuit television data from various major roads in Hong Kong. It is then used for training in long short-term memory networks to be able to predict traffic conditions in the near future, in an effort to provide more precise and quicker overviews of current and future traffic conditions relative to current solutions such as navigation apps.

Keywords: intelligent transportation system, vehicle detection, traffic analysis, deep learning, machine learning, computer vision, traffic prediction

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Authors: Lavinia B. Dulla

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The exploration study of the fuzzy regression approach attempts to present that fuzzy regression can be used as a possible alternative to classical regression. It likewise seeks to assess the differences and characteristics of simple linear regression and fuzzy regression using the width of prediction interval, mean absolute deviation, and variance of residuals. Based on the simple linear regression model, the fuzzy regression approach is worth considering as an alternative to simple linear regression when the sample size is between 10 and 20. As the sample size increases, the fuzzy regression approach is not applicable to use since the assumption regarding large sample size is already operating within the framework of simple linear regression. Nonetheless, it can be suggested for a practical alternative when decisions often have to be made on the basis of small data.

Keywords: fuzzy regression approach, minimum fuzziness criterion, interval regression, prediction interval

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Authors: Jaskirat Singh, Roshan Lal Virdi, Khushdeep Goyal

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The purpose of this paper is to perform a microstructural analysis of Friction Stir Welded joints of aluminum alloys 6063 and 5083, also to check the properties of the weld zone by SEM analysis. FSW experiments were carried on CNC Vertical milling machine. The tools used for welding were the round cylindrical pin shape and square pin shape. It is found that Microstructure shows the uniformly distributed material with minimum heat affected zone and dense welded zone without any defect. Microstructures indicate that the weld material is defect free. The SEM shows the diffusion of material with base metal with proper bonding without any defect.

Keywords: friction stir welding, aluminum alloy, microstructure, SEM analysis

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Authors: Amir Hossein Hejazi, Nima Amjady

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In recent years, due to environmental issues traditional energy sources had been replaced by renewable ones. Wind energy as the fastest growing renewable energy shares a considerable percent of energy in power electricity markets. With this fast growth of wind energy worldwide, owners and operators of wind farms, transmission system operators, and energy traders need reliable and secure forecasts of wind energy production. In this paper, a new forecasting strategy is proposed for short-term wind power prediction based on Echo State Networks (ESN). The forecast engine utilizes state-of-the-art training process including dynamical reservoir with high capability to learn complex dynamics of wind power or wind vector signals. The study becomes more interesting by incorporating prediction of wind direction into forecast strategy. The Big Bang-Big Crunch (BB-BC) evolutionary optimization algorithm is adopted for adjusting free parameters of ESN-based forecaster. The proposed method is tested by real-world hourly data to show the efficiency of the forecasting engine for prediction of both wind vector and wind power output of aggregated wind power production.

Keywords: wind power forecasting, echo state network, big bang-big crunch, evolutionary optimization algorithm

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Authors: Amiel Satvedi, Richard Pyne

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Injuries in professional sports occur on a regular basis. Some may be minor, while others can cause huge impact on a player's career and earning potential. In soccer, there is a high risk of players picking up injuries during game time. This research work seeks to help soccer players reduce the risk of getting injured by predicting the likelihood of injury while playing in the near future and then providing recommendations for intervention. The injury prediction tool will use a soccer player's number of minutes played on the field, number of appearances, distance covered and performance data for the current and previous seasons as variables to conduct statistical analysis and provide injury predictive results using a machine learning linear regression model.

Keywords: injury predictor, soccer injury prevention, machine learning in soccer, big data in soccer

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Authors: A. Jameel, G. A. Harmain, Y. Anand, J. H. Masoodi, F. A. Najar

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The present study investigates the effect of inclusions on the shape and size of crack tip plastic zones in engineering materials subjected to static loads by employing the element free Galerkin method (EFGM). The modeling of the discontinuities produced by cracks and inclusions becomes independent of the grid chosen for analysis. The standard displacement approximation is modified by adding additional enrichment functions, which introduce the effects of different discontinuities into the formulation. The level set method has been used to represent different discontinuities present in the domain. The effect of inclusions on the extent of crack tip plastic zones is investigated by solving some numerical problems by the EFGM.

Keywords: EFGM, stress intensity factors, crack tip plastic zones, inclusions

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Authors: Sun-Young Jang, Sung-Ah Kim, Dongyoun Shin

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The Intelligent transportation system is essential to build smarter cities. Machine learning based transportation prediction could be highly promising approach by delivering invisible aspect visible. In this context, this research aims to make a prototype model that predicts transportation network by using big data and machine learning technology. In detail, among urban transportation systems this research chooses bus system.  The research problem that existing headway model cannot response dynamic transportation conditions. Thus, bus delay problem is often occurred. To overcome this problem, a prediction model is presented to fine patterns of bus delay by using a machine learning implementing the following data sets; traffics, weathers, and bus statues. This research presents a flexible headway model to predict bus delay and analyze the result. The prototyping model is composed by real-time data of buses. The data are gathered through public data portals and real time Application Program Interface (API) by the government. These data are fundamental resources to organize interval pattern models of bus operations as traffic environment factors (road speeds, station conditions, weathers, and bus information of operating in real-time). The prototyping model is designed by the machine learning tool (RapidMiner Studio) and conducted tests for bus delays prediction. This research presents experiments to increase prediction accuracy for bus headway by analyzing the urban big data. The big data analysis is important to predict the future and to find correlations by processing huge amount of data. Therefore, based on the analysis method, this research represents an effective use of the machine learning and urban big data to understand urban dynamics.

Keywords: big data, machine learning, smart city, social cost, transportation network

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Authors: Apurwa Rastogi, Anant Parghi

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Shape memory alloys (SMAs) are memory metals with a high calibre to outperform as a civil construction material. They showcase novel functionality of undergoing large deformations and self-healing capability (pseudoelasticity) that leads to its emerging applications in a variety of areas. In the existing literature, most of the studies focused on the behaviour of SMA when used in critical regions of the smart buildings/bridges designed to withstand severe earthquakes without collapse and also its various applications in retrofitting works. However, despite having high ductility, their uses as construction joints and shear connectors in composite bridges are still unexplored in the research domain. This article presents to gain a broad outlook on whether SMAs can be partially used as shear connectors in composite bridges. In this regard, existing papers on the characteristics of shear connectors in the composite bridges will be discussed thoroughly and matched with the fundamental characteristics and properties of SMA. Since due to the high strength, stiffness, and ductility phenomena of SMAs, it is expected to be a good material for the shear connectors in composite bridges, and the collected evidence encourages the prior scrutiny of its partial use in the composite constructions. Based on the comprehensive review, important and necessary conclusions will be affirmed, and further emergence of research direction on the use of SMA will be discussed. This opens the window of new possibilities of using smart materials to enhance the performance of bridges even more in the near future.

Keywords: composite bridges, ductility, pseudoelasticity, shape memory alloy, shear connectors

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Authors: Hui Zhang, Sherif Beskhyroun

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Structural Health monitoring systems (SHM) are commonly used to identify and assess structural damage. In terms of damage detection, SHM needs to periodically collect data from sensors placed in the structure as damage-sensitive features. This includes abnormal changes caused by the strain field and abnormal symptoms of the structure, such as damage and deterioration. Currently, deploying sensors on a large scale in a building structure is a challenge. In this study, a highly stretchable strain sensors are used in this study to collect data sets of strain generated on the surface of full-size reinforced concrete (RC) frames under extreme cyclic load application. This sensing sheet can be switched freely between the test bending strain and the axial strain to achieve two different configurations. On this basis, the deep neural network prediction model of the frame beam and frame column is established. The training results show that the method can accurately predict the strain value and has good generalization ability. The two deep neural network prediction models will also be deployed in the SHM system in the future as part of the intelligent strain sensor system.

Keywords: strain sensing sheets, deep neural networks, strain measurement, SHM system, RC frames

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Authors: A. B. M. Rezaul Islam, Ernur Karadogan

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Shape memory alloys (SMAs) are known for their shape memory effect and pseudoelasticity behavior. Their thermomechanical behaviors are modeled by numerous researchers using microscopic thermodynamic and macroscopic phenomenological point of view. Tanaka, Liang-Rogers and Ivshin-Pence models are some of the most popular SMA macroscopic phenomenological constitutive models. They describe SMA behavior in terms of stress, strain and temperature. These models involve material parameters and they have associated uncertainty present in them. At different operating temperatures, the uncertainty propagates to the output when the material is subjected to loading followed by unloading. The propagation of uncertainty while utilizing these models in real-life application can result in performance discrepancies or failure at extreme conditions. To resolve this, we used probabilistic approach to perform the sensitivity and uncertainty analysis of Tanaka, Liang-Rogers, and Ivshin-Pence models. Sobol and extended Fourier Amplitude Sensitivity Testing (eFAST) methods have been used to perform the sensitivity analysis for simulated isothermal loading/unloading at various operating temperatures. As per the results, it is evident that the models vary due to the change in operating temperature and loading condition. The average and stress-dependent sensitivity indices present the most significant parameters at several temperatures. This work highlights the sensitivity and uncertainty analysis results and shows comparison of them at different temperatures and loading conditions for all these models. The analysis presented will aid in designing engineering applications by eliminating the probability of model failure due to the uncertainty in the input parameters. Thus, it is recommended to have a proper understanding of sensitive parameters and the uncertainty propagation at several operating temperatures and loading conditions as per Tanaka, Liang-Rogers, and Ivshin-Pence model.

Keywords: constitutive models, FAST sensitivity analysis, sensitivity analysis, sobol, shape memory alloy, uncertainty analysis

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Authors: Abdullah A. AlShaher

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In this paper, we demonstrate how regression curves can be used to recognize 2D non-rigid handwritten shapes. Each shape is represented by a set of non-overlapping uniformly distributed landmarks. The underlying models utilize 2^nd order of polynomials to model shapes within a training set. To estimate the regression models, we need to extract the required coefficients which describe the variations for a set of shape class. Hence, a least square method is used to estimate such modes. We then proceed by training these coefficients using the apparatus Expectation Maximization algorithm. Recognition is carried out by finding the least error landmarks displacement with respect to the model curves. Handwritten isolated Arabic characters are used to evaluate our approach.

Keywords: character recognition, regression curves, handwritten Arabic letters, expectation maximization algorithm

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Authors: Pedro Paulo Galindo Francisco, Eli Dhadad Junior

Abstract:

This study addresses the Meese-Rogoff Puzzle by introducing the latest machine learning techniques as alternatives for predicting the exchange rates. Using RMSE as a comparison metric, Meese and Rogoff discovered that economic models are unable to outperform the random walk model as short-term exchange rate predictors. Decades after this study, no statistical prediction technique has proven effective in overcoming this obstacle; although there were positive results, they did not apply to all currencies and defined periods. Recent advancements in artificial intelligence technologies have paved the way for a new approach to exchange rate prediction. Leveraging this technology, we applied five machine learning techniques to attempt to overcome the Meese-Rogoff puzzle. We considered daily data for the real, yen, British pound, euro, and Chinese yuan against the US dollar over a time horizon from 2010 to 2023. Our results showed that none of the presented techniques were able to produce an RMSE lower than the Random Walk model. However, the performance of some models, particularly LSTM and N-BEATS were able to outperform the ARIMA model. The results also suggest that machine learning models have untapped potential and could represent an effective long-term possibility for overcoming the Meese-Rogoff puzzle.

Keywords: exchage rate, prediction, machine learning, deep learning

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Authors: Minho Kwak, Suhwan Yun, Choonsoo Park

Abstract:

Nose shape optimizations of high-speed train are performed for the improvement of aerodynamic characteristics. Based on the commercial train, KTX-Sancheon, multi-objective optimizations are conducted for the improvement of the side wind stability and the micro-pressure wave following the optimization for the reduction of aerodynamic drag. 3D nose shapes are modelled by the Vehicle Modeling Function. Aerodynamic drag and side wind stability are calculated by three-dimensional compressible Navier-Stokes solver, and micro pressure wave is done by axi-symmetric compressible Navier-Stokes solver. The Maxi-min Latin Hypercube Sampling method is used to extract sampling points to construct the approximation model. The kriging model is constructed for the approximation model and the NSGA-II algorithm was used as the multi-objective optimization algorithm. Nose length, nose tip height, and lower surface curvature are design variables. Because nose length is a dominant variable for aerodynamic characteristics of train nose, two optimization processes are progressed respectively with and without the design variable, nose length. Each pareto set was obtained and each optimized nose shape is selected respectively considering Honam high-speed rail line infrastructure in South Korea. Through the optimization process with the nose length, when compared to KTX Sancheon, aerodynamic drag was reduced by 9.0%, side wind stability was improved by 4.5%, micro-pressure wave was reduced by 5.4% whereas aerodynamic drag by 7.3%, side wind stability by 3.9%, micro-pressure wave by 3.9%, without the nose length. As a result of comparison between two optimized shapes, similar shapes are extracted other than the effect of nose length.

Keywords: aerodynamic characteristics, design variable, multi-objective optimization, train nose shape

Procedia PDF Downloads 347

Authors: Danilo López, Johana Hernández, Edwin Rivas

Abstract:

The use of the Multilayer Perceptron Neural Networks (MLPNN) technique is presented to estimate the future state of use of a licensed channel by primary users (PUs); this will be useful at the spectral decision stage in cognitive radio networks (CRN) to determine approximately in which time instants of future may secondary users (SUs) opportunistically use the spectral bandwidth to send data through the primary wireless network. To validate the results, sequences of occupancy data of channel were generated by simulation. The results show that the prediction percentage is greater than 60% in some of the tests carried out.

Keywords: cognitive radio, neural network, prediction, primary user

Procedia PDF Downloads 371