Search results for: endogenous switching regression model

Authors: Yusra Abdulsalam Alqamati, Ahmed Alkilany

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The teaching staff is a distinct group whose impact is on the educational process and which plays an important role in enhancing the quality of the academic education process. To improve the management effectiveness of the academy, the Teaching Staff Management System (TSMS) proposes that all teacher processes be digitized. Since the BPMN approach can accurately describe the processes, it lacks a clear picture of the process flow map, something that the process mining approach has, which is extracting information from event logs for discovery, monitoring, and model enhancement. Therefore, these two methodologies were combined to create the most accurate representation of system operations, the ability to extract data records and mining processes, recreate them in the form of a Petri net, and then generate them in a BPMN model for a more in-depth view of process flow. Additionally, the TSMS processes will be orchestrated to handle all requests in a guaranteed small-time manner thanks to the integration of the Google Cloud Platform (GCP), the BPM engine, and allowing business owners to take part throughout the entire TSMS project development lifecycle.

Keywords: process mining, BPM, business process model and notation, Petri net, teaching staff, Google Cloud Platform

Procedia PDF Downloads 135

Authors: Fauzia Dianawati, Riska W. Purnomo

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Food and agricultural sector become the biggest sector contributing to inflation in Indonesia. Especially in Wonogiri district, red cayenne pepper was the biggest sector contributing to inflation on 2016. A national statistic proved that in recent five years red cayenne pepper has the highest average level of fluctuation among all commodities. Some factors, like supply chain, price disparity, production quantity, crop failure, and oil price become the possible factor causes high volatility level in red cayenne pepper price. Therefore, this research tries to find the key factor causing fluctuation on red cayenne pepper by using ARCH/GARCH method. The method could accommodate the presence of heteroscedasticity in time series data. At the end of the research, it is statistically found that the second level of supply chain becomes the biggest part contributing to inflation with 3,35 of coefficient in fluctuation forecasting model of red cayenne pepper price. This model could become a reference to the government to determine the appropriate policy in maintaining the price stability of red cayenne pepper.

Keywords: ARCH/GARCH, forecasting, red cayenne pepper, volatility, supply chain

Procedia PDF Downloads 182

Authors: Amit R. Bhende, G. K. Awari

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Remaining useful life (RUL) prediction is one of key technologies to realize prognostics and health management that is being widely applied in many industrial systems to ensure high system availability over their life cycles. The present work proposes a data-driven method of RUL prediction based on multiple health state assessment for rolling element bearings. Bearing degradation data at three different conditions from run to failure is used. A RUL prediction model is separately built in each condition. Feed forward back propagation neural network models are developed for prediction modeling.

Keywords: bearing degradation data, remaining useful life (RUL), back propagation, prognosis

Procedia PDF Downloads 433

Authors: Jia-Chao Wang

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A model of the universe without invoking space expansion is proposed to explain the observed redshift-distance relation and the cosmic microwave background radiation (CMB). The main hypothesized feature of the model is that photons traveling in space interact with the CMB photon gas. This interaction causes the photons to gradually lose energy through dissipation and, therefore, experience redshift. The interaction also causes some of the photons to be scattered off their track toward an observer and, therefore, results in beam intensity attenuation. As observed, the CMB exists everywhere in space and its photon density is relatively high (about 410 per cm³). The small average energy of the CMB photons (about 6.3×10⁻⁴ eV) can reduce the energies of traveling photons gradually and will not alter their momenta drastically as in, for example, Compton scattering, to totally blur the images of distant objects. An object moving through a thermalized photon gas, such as the CMB, experiences a drag. The cause is that the object sees a blue shifted photon gas along the direction of motion and a redshifted one in the opposite direction. An example of this effect can be the observed CMB dipole: The earth travels at about 368 km/s (600 km/s) relative to the CMB. In the all-sky map from the COBE satellite, radiation in the Earth's direction of motion appears 0.35 mK hotter than the average temperature, 2.725 K, while radiation on the opposite side of the sky is 0.35 mK colder. The pressure of a thermalized photon gas is given by Pγ = Eγ/3 = αT⁴/3, where Eγ is the energy density of the photon gas and α is the Stefan-Boltzmann constant. The observed CMB dipole, therefore, implies a pressure difference between the two sides of the earth and results in a CMB drag on the earth. By plugging in suitable estimates of quantities involved, such as the cross section of the earth and the temperatures on the two sides, this drag can be estimated to be tiny. But for a photon traveling at the speed of light, 300,000 km/s, the drag can be significant. In the present model, for the dissipation part, it is assumed that a photon traveling from a distant object toward an observer has an effective interaction cross section pushing against the pressure of the CMB photon gas. For the attenuation part, the coefficient of the typical attenuation equation is used as a parameter. The values of these two parameters are determined by fitting the 748 µ vs. z data points compiled from 643 supernova and 105 γ-ray burst observations with z values up to 8.1. The fit is as good as that obtained from the lambda cold dark matter (ΛCDM) model using online cosmological calculators and Planck 2015 results. The model can be used to interpret Hubble's constant, Olbers' paradox, the origin and blackbody nature of the CMB radiation, the broadening of supernova light curves, and the size of the observable universe.

Keywords: CMB as the lowest energy state, model of the universe, origin of CMB in a static universe, photon-CMB photon gas interaction

Procedia PDF Downloads 129

Authors: X. Wang, T. J. Craft, H. Iacovides

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When handling the near-wall regions of turbulent flows, it is necessary to account for the viscous effects which are important over the thin near-wall layers. Low-Reynolds- number turbulence models do this by including explicit viscous and also damping terms which become active in the near-wall regions, and using very fine near-wall grids to properly resolve the steep gradients present. In order to overcome the cost associated with the low-Re turbulence models, a more advanced wall function approach has been implemented within OpenFoam and tested together with a standard log-law based wall function in the prediction of flows which involve 2-D shock wave/turbulent boundary layer interactions (SWTBLIs). On the whole, from the calculation of the impinging shock interaction, the three turbulence modelling strategies, the Lauder-Sharma k-ε model with Yap correction (LS), the high-Re k-ε model with standard wall function (SWF) and analytical wall function (AWF), display good predictions of wall-pressure. However, the SWF approach tends to underestimate the tendency of the flow to separate as a result of the SWTBLI. The analytical wall function, on the other hand, is able to reproduce the shock-induced flow separation and returns predictions similar to those of the low-Re model, using a much coarser mesh.

Keywords: SWTBLIs, skin-friction, turbulence modeling, wall function

Procedia PDF Downloads 343

Authors: Yusuke Katayama, Tetsuhisa Kitamura, Kosuke Kiyohara, Sumito Hayashida, Taku Iwami, Takashi Kawamura, Takeshi Shimazu

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Background: Recently, the number of ambulance dispatches has been increasing in Japan and it is, therefore, difficult to accept emergency patients to hospitals smoothly and appropriately because of the limited hospital capacity. To facilitate the request for patient transport by ambulances and hospital acceptance, the emergency information system using information technology has been built up and introduced in various communities. However, its effectiveness has not been insufficiently revealed in Japan. In 2013, we developed a smartphone application system that enables the emergency-medical-service (EMS) personnel to share information about on-scene ambulance and hospital situation. The aim of this study was to assess the introduction effect of this application for EMS system in Osaka City, Japan. Methods: This study was a retrospective study with population-based ambulance records of Osaka Municipal Fire Department. This study period was six years from January 1, 2010 to December 31, 2015. In this study, we enrolled emergency patients that on-scene EMS personnel conducted the hospital selection for them. The main endpoint was difficulty in hospital acceptance at the scene. The definition of difficulty in hospital acceptance at the scene was to make >=5 phone calls by EMS personnel at the scene to each hospital until a decision to transport was determined. The definition of the smartphone application group was emergency patients transported in the period of 2013-2015 after the introduction of this application, and we assessed the introduction effect of smartphone application with multivariable logistic regression model. Results: A total of 600,526 emergency patients for whom EMS personnel selected hospitals were eligible for our analysis. There were 300,131 smartphone application group (50.0%) in 2010-2012 and 300,395 non-smartphone application group (50.0%) in 2013-2015. The proportion of the difficulty in hospital acceptance was 14.2% (42,585/300,131) in the smartphone application group and 10.9% (32,819/300,395) in the non-smartphone application group, and the difficulty in hospital acceptance significantly decreased by the introduction of the smartphone application (adjusted odds ration; 0.730, 95% confidence interval; 0.718-0.741, P<0.001). Conclusions: Sharing information between ambulance and hospital by introducing smartphone application at the scene was associated with decreasing the difficulty in hospital acceptance. Our findings may be considerable useful for developing emergency medical information system with using IT in other areas of the world.

Keywords: difficulty in hospital acceptance, emergency medical service, infomation technology, smartphone application

Procedia PDF Downloads 267

Authors: Sofia N. Gonçalves, Duarte M. S. Albuquerque, José C. F. Pereira

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The energy transition is spurred by structural changes in energy demand, supply, and prices. Microwave technology was first proposed as a faster alternative for cooking food. It was found that food heated instantly when interacting with high-frequency electromagnetic waves. The dielectric properties account for a material’s ability to absorb electromagnetic energy and dissipate this energy in the form of heat. Many energy-intense industries could benefit from electromagnetic heating since many of the raw materials are dielectric at high temperatures. Limestone sedimentary rock is a dielectric material intensively used in the cement industry to produce unslaked lime. A numerical 3D model was implemented in COMSOL Multiphysics to study the limestone continuous processing under microwave heating. The model solves the two-way coupling between the Energy equation and Maxwell’s equations as well as the coupling between heat transfer and chemical interfaces. Complementary, a controller was implemented to optimize the overall heating efficiency and control the numerical model stability. This was done by continuously matching the cavity impedance and predicting the required energy for the system, avoiding energy inefficiencies. This controller was developed in MATLAB and successfully fulfilled all these goals. The limestone load influence on thermal decomposition and overall process efficiency was the main object of this study. The procedure considered the Verification and Validation of the chemical kinetics model separately from the coupled model. The chemical model was found to correctly describe the chosen kinetic equation, and the coupled model successfully solved the equations describing the numerical model. The interaction between flow of material and electric field Poynting vector revealed to influence limestone decomposition, as a result from the low dielectric properties of limestone. The numerical model considered this effect and took advantage from this interaction. The model was demonstrated to be highly unstable when solving non-linear temperature distributions. Limestone has a dielectric loss response that increases with temperature and has low thermal conductivity. For this reason, limestone is prone to produce thermal runaway under electromagnetic heating, as well as numerical model instabilities. Five different scenarios were tested by considering a material fill ratio of 30%, 50%, 65%, 80%, and 100%. Simulating the tube rotation for mixing enhancement was proven to be beneficial and crucial for all loads considered. When uniform temperature distribution is accomplished, the electromagnetic field and material interaction is facilitated. The results pointed out the inefficient development of the electric field within the bed for 30% fill ratio. The thermal efficiency showed the propensity to stabilize around 90%for loads higher than 50%. The process accomplished a maximum microwave efficiency of 75% for the 80% fill ratio, sustaining that the tube has an optimal fill of material. Electric field peak detachment was observed for the case with 100% fill ratio, justifying the lower efficiencies compared to 80%. Microwave technology has been demonstrated to be an important ally for the decarbonization of the cement industry.

Keywords: CFD numerical simulations, efficiency optimization, electromagnetic heating, impedance matching, limestone continuous processing

Procedia PDF Downloads 170

Authors: Khalid Kaddoura, Tarek Zayed

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Sewer networks are constructed to protect the communities and the environment from any contact with the sewer mediums. Pipelines, being laterals or sewer mains, and manholes form the huge underground infrastructure in every urban city. Due to the sewer networks importance, the infrastructure asset management field has extensive advancement in condition assessment and rehabilitation decision models. However, most of the focus was devoted to pipelines giving little attention toward manholes condition assessment. In fact, recent studies started to emerge in this area to preserve manholes from any malfunction. Therefore, the main objective of this study is to propose a condition assessment model for sewer manholes. The model divides the manhole into several components and determines the relative importance weight of each component using the Analytic Network Process (ANP) decision-making method. Later, the condition of the manhole is computed by aggregating the condition of each component with its corresponding weight. Accordingly, the proposed assessment model will enable decision-makers to have a final index suggesting the overall condition of the manhole and a backward analysis to check the condition of each component. Consequently, better decisions are made pertinent to maintenance, rehabilitation, and replacement actions.

Keywords: Analytic Network Process (ANP), condition assessment, decision-making, manholes

Procedia PDF Downloads 346

Authors: David A. Padilla, Rodolfo Villamizar

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In recent years, closed loop control strategies have been developed in order to establish a healthy glucose profile in type 1 diabetic mellitus (T1DM) patients. However, the controller itself is unable to define a suitable reference trajectory for glucose. In this paper, a control strategy Is proposed where the shape of the reference trajectory is generated bases in the amount of carbohydrates present during the digestive process, due to the effect of carbohydrate intake. Since there no exists a sensor to measure the amount of carbohydrates consumed, an estimator is proposed. Thus this paper presents the entire process of designing a carbohydrate estimator, which allows estimate disturbance for a predictive controller (MPC) in a T1MD patient, the estimation will be used to establish a profile of reference and improve the response of the controller by providing the estimated information of ingested carbohydrates. The dynamics of the diabetic model used are due to the equations described by the UVA/Padova model of the T1DMS simulator, the system was developed and simulated in Simulink, taking into account the noise and limitations of the glucose control system actuators.

Keywords: estimation, glucose control, predictive controller, MPC, UVA/Padova

Procedia PDF Downloads 258

Authors: Hiroki Yoshikai, Shin’ichi Arakawa, Tetsuya Takine, Masayuki Murata

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API (Application Programming Interface) economy is expected to create new value by converting corporate services such as information processing and data provision into APIs and using these APIs to connect services. Understanding the dynamics of a market of API economy under the strategies of participants is crucial to fully maximize the values of the API economy. To capture the behavior of a market in which the number of participants changes over time, we present a time-evolving market model for a platform in which API providers who provide APIs to service providers participate in addition to service providers and consumers. Then, we use the market model to clarify the role API providers play in expanding market participants and forming ecosystems. The results show that the platform with API providers increased the number of market participants by 67% and decreased the cost to develop services by 25% compared to the platform without API providers. Furthermore, during the expansion phase of the market, it is found that the profits of participants are mostly the same when 70% of the revenue from consumers is distributed to service providers and API providers. It is also found that when the market is mature, the profits of the service provider and API provider will decrease significantly due to their competition, and the profit of the platform increases.

Keywords: API economy, ecosystem, platform, API providers

Procedia PDF Downloads 84

Authors: Temur Chilachava

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In work the new nonlinear mathematical model describing assimilation of the people (population) with some less widespread language by two states with two various widespread languages, taking into account demographic factor is offered. In model three subjects are considered: the population and government institutions with the widespread first language, influencing by means of state and administrative resources on the third population with some less widespread language for the purpose of their assimilation; the population and government institutions with the widespread second language, influencing by means of state and administrative resources on the third population with some less widespread language for the purpose of their assimilation; the third population (probably small state formation, an autonomy), exposed to bilateral assimilation from two rather powerful states. Earlier by us it was shown that in case of zero demographic factor of all three subjects, the population with less widespread language completely assimilates the states with two various widespread languages, and the result of assimilation (redistribution of the assimilated population) is connected with initial quantities, technological and economic capabilities of the assimilating states. In considered model taking into account demographic factor natural decrease in the population of the assimilating states and a natural increase of the population which has undergone bilateral assimilation is supposed. At some ratios between coefficients of natural change of the population of the assimilating states, and also assimilation coefficients, for nonlinear system of three differential equations are received the two first integral. Cases of two powerful states assimilating the population of small state formation (autonomy), with different number of the population, both with identical and with various economic and technological capabilities are considered. It is shown that in the first case the problem is actually reduced to nonlinear system of two differential equations describing the classical model "predator - the victim", thus, naturally a role of the victim plays the population which has undergone assimilation, and a predator role the population of one of the assimilating states. The population of the second assimilating state in the first case changes in proportion (the coefficient of proportionality is equal to the relation of the population of assimilators in an initial time point) to the population of the first assimilator. In the second case the problem is actually reduced to nonlinear system of two differential equations describing type model "a predator – the victim", with the closed integrated curves on the phase plane. In both cases there is no full assimilation of the population to less widespread language. Intervals of change of number of the population of all three objects of model are found. The considered mathematical models which in some approach can model real situations, with the real assimilating countries and the state formations (an autonomy or formation with the unrecognized status), undergone to bilateral assimilation, show that for them the only possibility to avoid from assimilation is the natural demographic increase in population and hope for natural decrease in the population of the assimilating states.

Keywords: nonlinear mathematical model, bilateral assimilation, demographic factor, first integrals, result of assimilation, intervals of change of number of the population

Procedia PDF Downloads 465

Authors: Ahmed Z. Mazen, Nejat Rahmanian, Iqbal Mujtaba, Ali Hassanpour

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In oil and gas well drilling, the drill bit is an important part of the Bottom Hole Assembly (BHA), which is installed and designed to drill and produce a hole by several mechanisms. The efficiency of the bit depends on many drilling parameters such as weight on bit, rotary speed, and mud properties. When the bit is pulled out of the hole, the evaluation of the bit damage must be recorded very carefully to guide engineers in order to select the bits for further planned wells. Having a worn bit for hole drilling may cause severe damage to bit leading to cutter or cone losses in the bottom of hole, where a fishing job will have to take place, and all of these will increase the operating cost. The main factor to reduce the cost of drilling operation is to maximize the rate of penetration by analyzing real-time data to predict the drill bit wear while drilling. There are numerous models in the literature for prediction of the rate of penetration based on drilling parameters, mostly based on empirical approaches. One of the most commonly used approaches is Bourgoyne and Young model, where the rate of penetration can be estimated by the drilling parameters as well as a wear index using an empirical correlation, provided all the constants and coefficients are accurately determined. This paper introduces a new methodology to estimate the eight coefficients for Bourgoyne and Young model using the gPROMS parameters estimation GPE (Version 4.2.0). Real data collected form similar formations (12 ¼’ sections) in two different fields in Libya are used to estimate the coefficients. The estimated coefficients are then used in the equations and applied to nearby wells in the same field to predict the bit wear.

Keywords: Bourgoyne and Young model, bit wear, gPROMS, rate of penetration

Procedia PDF Downloads 149

Authors: Tatjana Pekmezovic, Milica Jecmenica-Lukic, Igor Petrovic, Vladimir Kostic

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Background: A group of atypical parkinsonian syndromes (APS) includes a variety of rare neurodegenerative disorders characterized by reduced life expectancy, increasing disability, and considerable impact on health-related quality of life (HRQoL). Aim: In this study we wanted to answer two questions: a) which demographic and clinical factors are main contributors of HRQoL in our cohort of patients with APS, and b) how does quality of life of these patients change over 1-year follow-up period. Patients and Methods: We conducted a prospective cohort study in hospital settings. The initial study comprised all consecutive patients who were referred to the Department of Movement Disorders, Clinic of Neurology, Clinical Centre of Serbia, Faculty of Medicine, University of Belgrade (Serbia), from January 31, 2000 to July 31, 2013, with the initial diagnoses of ‘Parkinson’s disease’, ‘parkinsonism’, ‘atypical parkinsonism’ and ‘parkinsonism plus’ during the first 8 months from the appearance of first symptom(s). The patients were afterwards regularly followed in 4-6 month intervals and eventually the diagnoses were established for 46 patients fulfilling the criteria for clinically probable progressive supranuclear palsy (PSP) and 36 patients for probable multiple system atrophy (MSA). The health-related quality of life was assessed by using the SF-36 questionnaire (Serbian translation). Hierarchical multiple regression analysis was conducted to identify predictors of composite scores of SF-36. The importance of changes in quality of life scores of patients with APS between baseline and follow-up time-point were quantified using Wilcoxon Signed Ranks Test. The magnitude of any differences for the quality of life changes was calculated as an effect size (ES). Results: The final models of hierarchical regression analysis showed that apathy measured by the Apathy evaluation scale (AES) score accounted for 59% of the variance in the Physical Health Composite Score of SF-36 and 14% of the variance in the Mental Health Composite Score of SF-36 (p<0.01). The changes in HRQoL were assessed in 52 patients with APS who completed 1-year follow-up period. The analysis of magnitude for changes in HRQoL during one-year follow-up period have shown sustained medium ES (0.50-0.79) for both Physical and Mental health composite scores, total quality of life as well as for the Physical Health, Vitality, Role Emotional and Social Functioning. Conclusion: This study provides insight into new potential predictors of HRQoL and its changes over time in patients with APS. Additionally, identification of both prognostic markers of a poor HRQoL and magnitude of its changes should be considered when developing comprehensive treatment-related strategies and health care programs aimed at improving HRQoL and well-being in patients with APS.

Keywords: atypical parkinsonian syndromes, follow-up study, quality of life, APS

Procedia PDF Downloads 301

Authors: Byeong-Sam Kim, Jongmin Park

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The present work is motivated by the industrial challenge to produce complex composite shapes cost-effectively. The model used an anisotropical thermoviscoelastic is analyzed by an implemented finite element solver. The stress relaxation can be constructed by Prony series for the nonlinear thermoviscoelastic model. The calculation of process induced internal stresses relaxation during the cooling stage of the manufacturing cycle was carried out by the spring back phenomena observed from the part containing a cylindrical segment. The finite element results obtained from the present formulation are compared with experimental data, and the results show good correlations.

Keywords: thermoviscoelastic, springback phenomena, FEM analysis, thermoplastic composite structures

Procedia PDF Downloads 356

Authors: D. Habibinia, M. R. Feyzi

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Nowadays, specialized software is vastly used to verify the performance of an electric machine prototype by evaluating a model of the system. These models mainly consist of electrical parameters such as inductances and resistances. However, when the operating frequency of the device is above one kHz, the effect of parasitic capacitances grows significantly. In this paper, a software-based procedure is introduced to model these capacitances within the electromagnetic simulation of the device. The case study is a high-frequency high-voltage pulse transformer. The Finite Element Analysis (FEA) software with coupled field analysis is used in this method.

Keywords: finite element analysis, parasitic capacitance, pulse transformer, high frequency

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Authors: Sofiane Bououden, Ilyes Boulkaibet

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In this paper, a robust model predictive controller (RMPC) for uncertain nonlinear system under actuator saturation is designed to control a DC-DC buck converter in PV pumping application, where this system is subject to actuator saturation and parameter uncertainties. The considered nonlinear system contains a linear constant part perturbed by an additive state-dependent nonlinear term. Based on the saturating actuator property, an appropriate linear feedback control law is constructed and used to minimize an infinite horizon cost function within the framework of linear matrix inequalities. The proposed approach has successfully provided a solution to the optimization problem that can stabilize the nonlinear plants. Furthermore, sufficient conditions for the existence of the proposed controller guarantee the robust stability of the system in the presence of polytypic uncertainties. In addition, the simulation results have demonstrated the efficiency of the proposed control scheme.

Keywords: PV pumping system, DC-DC buck converter, robust model predictive controller, nonlinear system, actuator saturation, linear matrix inequality

Procedia PDF Downloads 175

Authors: Fatimah A. Alhomaid

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A total of 40 one day-old LSL chicks (Lohman Selected Loghorn) were used in this study. In 20 days-old chicks, the bursa was formed of mucosa, musculosa and serosa. Its lamina propria was lymphoid in nature. After hatching, the bursa continued to grow and became fully developed at the 30th day post- hatching. It appeared as a blind sac. Its lumen was occupied by 12-13 mucosal folds. Each fold was lined by tall columnar or pseudo- stratified columnar epithelium. Its core was made of lamina propria infiltrated by a large number of lymphoid follicles. Most follicles possessed an outer corona surrounding a germinal center. At the age of 6 weeks physiological regression of the bursa was observed. The lymphoid follicles were decreased in size, the lymphocytes were depleted and the interfollicular stroma became obvious, thicker and more fibrous. Fibrosis of the lymphoid follicles was frequently seen in some sections at the age of 30 weeks.

Keywords: Bursa of fabricius, lymphocytes, cloacal Bursa

Procedia PDF Downloads 464

Authors: Birce Boga Bakirli

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In this paper, we investigate ideas on human capital development and management in industries. We structured a model to be able to gather the data from the interviews conducted with worker, specialists and owners of companies. Different aspects of the situation are found in these interviews, and we used the information to model the benefit of the business owners and workers perspectives. These are modelled as a bi-level programming problem. Several instances of the generic cases are solved. The results show the importance of education within and out of the company for workers, and it returns for the company.

Keywords: bi-level programming, corporate strategy, cost tradeoffs, human capital, mixed integer programming, Stackelberg game, supplier relations, strategic planning

Procedia PDF Downloads 349

Authors: Helene Thieblemont, Fariborz Haghighat

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Energy storage systems play a crucial role in decreasing building energy consumption during peak periods and expand the use of renewable energies in buildings. To provide a high building thermal performance, the energy storage system has to be properly controlled to insure a good energy performance while maintaining a satisfactory thermal comfort for building’s occupant. In the case of passive discharge storages, defining in advance the required amount of energy is required to avoid overheating in the building. Consequently, anticipatory supervisory control strategies have been developed forecasting future energy demand and production to coordinate systems. Anticipatory supervisory control strategies are based on some predictions, mainly of the weather forecast. However, if the forecasted hourly outdoor temperature may be found online with a high accuracy, solar radiations predictions are most of the time not available online. To estimate them, this paper proposes an advanced approach based on the forecast of weather conditions. Several methods to correlate hourly weather conditions forecast to real hourly solar radiations are compared. Results show that using weather conditions forecast allows estimating with an acceptable accuracy solar radiations of the next day. Moreover, this technique allows obtaining hourly data that may be used for building models. As a result, this solar radiation prediction model may help to implement model-based controller as Model Predictive Control.

Keywords: anticipatory control, model predictive control, solar radiation forecast, thermal storage

Procedia PDF Downloads 265

Authors: Ella Tyuryumina, Alexey Neznanov

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This study is an attempt to obtain reliable data on the natural history of breast cancer growth. We analyze the opportunities for using classical mathematical models (exponential and logistic tumor growth models, Gompertz and von Bertalanffy tumor growth models) to try to describe growth of the primary tumor and the secondary distant metastases of human breast cancer. The research aim is to improve predicting accuracy of breast cancer progression using an original mathematical model referred to CoMPaS and corresponding software. We are interested in: 1) modelling the whole natural history of the primary tumor and the secondary distant metastases; 2) developing adequate and precise CoMPaS which reflects relations between the primary tumor and the secondary distant metastases; 3) analyzing the CoMPaS scope of application; 4) implementing the model as a software tool. The foundation of the CoMPaS is the exponential tumor growth model, which is described by determinate nonlinear and linear equations. The CoMPaS corresponds to TNM classification. It allows to calculate different growth periods of the primary tumor and the secondary distant metastases: 1) ‘non-visible period’ for the primary tumor; 2) ‘non-visible period’ for the secondary distant metastases; 3) ‘visible period’ for the secondary distant metastases. The CoMPaS is validated on clinical data of 10-years and 15-years survival depending on the tumor stage and diameter of the primary tumor. The new predictive tool: 1) is a solid foundation to develop future studies of breast cancer growth models; 2) does not require any expensive diagnostic tests; 3) is the first predictor which makes forecast using only current patient data, the others are based on the additional statistical data. The CoMPaS model and predictive software: a) fit to clinical trials data; b) detect different growth periods of the primary tumor and the secondary distant metastases; c) make forecast of the period of the secondary distant metastases appearance; d) have higher average prediction accuracy than the other tools; e) can improve forecasts on survival of breast cancer and facilitate optimization of diagnostic tests. The following are calculated by CoMPaS: the number of doublings for ‘non-visible’ and ‘visible’ growth period of the secondary distant metastases; tumor volume doubling time (days) for ‘non-visible’ and ‘visible’ growth period of the secondary distant metastases. The CoMPaS enables, for the first time, to predict ‘whole natural history’ of the primary tumor and the secondary distant metastases growth on each stage (pT1, pT2, pT3, pT4) relying only on the primary tumor sizes. Summarizing: a) CoMPaS describes correctly the primary tumor growth of IA, IIA, IIB, IIIB (T1-4N0M0) stages without metastases in lymph nodes (N0); b) facilitates the understanding of the appearance period and inception of the secondary distant metastases.

Keywords: breast cancer, exponential growth model, mathematical model, metastases in lymph nodes, primary tumor, survival

Procedia PDF Downloads 336

Authors: Emin Gundogar, Burak Erkayman, Aysegul Yilmaz, Nusret Sazak

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When considering current competition conditions on the world, satisfying customer demands on time has become an important factor that enables the firms take a step further. Therefore, production process must be completed faster to take the competitive advantage. A balanced assembly line is the one of most important factors affecting the speed of production lines. The aim of this study is to build an assembly line to balance the assembly line and to simulate it for different scenarios through a refrigerator factory. The times of the operations is analyzed and grouped by the priorities. First, a Kilbridge & Wester heuristics is put to the model then a simulation approach is implemented to the model and the differences are observed.

Keywords: assembly line design, assembly line balancing, simulation modelling, refrigeration industry

Procedia PDF Downloads 439

Authors: Malul Miki, Rafi Bar-El, Eithan Hourie

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In this article, we test the influence of an occupation as a calling on the value of job security and its connection with wage levels. Our sample consists of 495 workers in Israel from 10 occupations in the public sector, who are assumed to have a relatively high level of job security, and the private sector, who are assumed to have less job security or none at all. These 10 occupations are social workers, lecturers, lawyers, administration workers, accountants, high school teachers, bank workers, high-tech worker, nurses and psychologists. Using regression analysis, we find that those who have occupations that the literature has defined as a calling value job security less than those in ordinary employment. In addition, salary level has no effect on this relationship. Finally, those who work in occupations that are regarded as a calling have less status quo bias than those in ordinary employment.

Keywords: calling, loss aversion, job security, status quo bias

Procedia PDF Downloads 100

Authors: Archit Yajnik

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Part of Speech Tagging has always been a challenging task in the era of Natural Language Processing. This article presents POS tagging for Nepali text using Hidden Markov Model and Viterbi algorithm. From the Nepali text, annotated corpus training and testing data set are randomly separated. Both methods are employed on the data sets. Viterbi algorithm is found to be computationally faster and accurate as compared to HMM. The accuracy of 95.43% is achieved using Viterbi algorithm. Error analysis where the mismatches took place is elaborately discussed.

Keywords: hidden markov model, natural language processing, POS tagging, viterbi algorithm

Procedia PDF Downloads 323

Authors: Nusrat T. Chowdhury

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Green Supply Chain Management (GSCM) is becoming a key to success for profitable businesses. The various activities contributing to carbon emissions in a supply chain are transportation, ordering and holding of inventory. This research work develops a mixed-integer nonlinear programming (MINLP) model that considers the scenario of a supply chain with multiple periods, multiple products and multiple suppliers. The model assumes that the demand is deterministic, the buyer has a limited storage space in each period, the buyer is responsible for the transportation cost, a supplier-dependent ordering cost applies for each period in which an order is placed on a supplier and inventory shortage is permissible. The model provides an optimal decision regarding what products to order, in what quantities, with which suppliers, and in which periods in order to maximize the profit. For the purpose of evaluating the carbon emissions, three different carbon regulating policies i.e., carbon cap-and-trade, the strict cap on carbon emission and carbon tax on emissions, have been considered. The proposed MINLP has been validated using a randomly generated data set.

Keywords: green supply chain, carbon emission, mixed integer non-linear program, inventory shortage, carbon cap-and-trade

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Authors: Karina C. Azzolin, Luis E. Kosteski, Alisson S. Milani, Raquel C. Zydeck

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This work aims to represent Numerically tests experimentally developed in reduced scale walls with horizontal and inclined cuts by using the Lattice Discrete Element Method (LDEM) implemented On de Abaqus/explicit environment. The cuts were performed with depths of 20%, 30%, and 50% On the walls subjected to centered and eccentric loading. The parameters used to evaluate the numerical model are its strength, the failure mode, and the in-plane and out-of-plane displacements.

Keywords: structural masonry, wall chases, small scale, numerical model, lattice discrete element method

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Authors: Aimen Saleh

Abstract:

The Silurian Lower Acacus sandstone is one of the main reservoirs in North West Libya. Our aim in this study is to grasp a robust understanding of the hydrocarbon potential and distribution in the area. To date, the depositional environment of the Lower Acacus reservoir still open to discussion and contradiction. Henceforth, building three dimensional (3D) property modelling is one way to support the analysis and description of the reservoir, its properties and characterizations, so this will be of great value in this project. The 3D model integrates different data set, these incorporates well logs data, petrophysical reservoir properties and seismic data as well. The finalized depositional environment model of the Lower Acacus concludes that the area is located in a deltaic transitional depositional setting, which ranges from a wave dominated delta into tide dominated delta type. This interpretation carried out through a series of steps of model generation, core description and Formation Microresistivity Image tool (FMI) interpretation. After the analysis of the core data, the Lower Acacus layers shows a strong effect of tidal energy. Whereas these traces found imprinted in different types of sedimentary structures, for examples; presence of some crossbedding, such as herringbones structures, wavy and flaser cross beddings. In spite of recognition of some minor marine transgression events in the area, on the contrary, the coarsening upward cycles of sand and shale layers in the Lower Acacus demonstrate presence of a major regressive phase of the sea level. However, consequently, we produced a final package of this model in a complemented set of facies distribution, porosity and oil presence. And also it shows the record of the petroleum system, and the procedure of Hydrocarbon migration and accumulation. Finally, this model suggests that the area can be outlined into three main segments of hydrocarbon potential, which can be a textbook guide for future exploration and production strategies in the area.

Keywords: Acacus, Ghadames , Libya, Silurian

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Authors: Z. Bayat

Abstract:

A quantitative structure–property relationship (QSPR) study was performed to develop models those relate the structures of 65 Kovats retention index (RI) of adamantane derivatives. Molecular descriptors derived solely from 3D structures of the molecular compounds. The usefulness of the quantum chemical descriptors, calculated at the level of the DFT theories using 6-311+G** basis set for QSAR study of adamantane derivatives was examined. The use of descriptors calculated only from molecular structure eliminates the need to experimental determination of properties for use in the correlation and allows for the estimation of RI for molecules not yet synthesized. The prediction results are in good agreement with the experimental value. A multi-parametric equation containing maximum Four descriptors at B3LYP/6-31+G** method with good statistical qualities (R2train=0.913, Ftrain=97.67, R2test=0.770, Ftest=3.21, Q2LOO=0.895, R2adj=0.904, Q2LGO=0.844) was obtained by Multiple Linear Regression using stepwise method.

Keywords: DFT, adamantane, QSAR, Kovat

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Authors: Jiahe Liu, Hongyang Yu, Feng Qian, Miao Luo

Abstract:

SMPL-X was a powerful parametric human body model that included male, neutral, and female models, with significant gender differences between these three models. During the process of 3D human body reconstruction, the correct selection of standard templates was crucial for obtaining accurate results. To address this issue, we developed an efficient gender classification algorithm to automatically select the appropriate template for 3D human body reconstruction. The key to this gender classification algorithm was the precise analysis of human body features. By using the SMPL-X model, the algorithm could detect and identify gender features of the human body, thereby determining which standard template should be used. The accuracy of this algorithm made the 3D reconstruction process more accurate and reliable, as it could adjust model parameters based on individual gender differences. SMPL-X and the related gender classification algorithm have brought important advancements to the field of 3D human body reconstruction. By accurately selecting standard templates, they have improved the accuracy of reconstruction and have broad potential in various application fields. These technologies continue to drive the development of the 3D reconstruction field, providing us with more realistic and accurate human body models.

Keywords: gender classification, joint detection, SMPL-X, 3D reconstruction

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Authors: Muhammad A. Alsubaie, Mubarak K. H. Alhajri, Tarek S. Altowaim

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A repetitive controller designed to accommodate periodic disturbances via state feedback is discussed. Periodic disturbances can be represented by a time delay model in a positive feedback loop acting on system output. A direct use of the small gain theorem solves the periodic disturbances problem via 1) isolating the delay model, 2) finding the overall system representation around the delay model and 3) designing a feedback controller that assures overall system stability and tracking error convergence. This paper addresses uncertainty conditions for the repetitive controller designed in state feedback in either past error feedforward or current error feedback using singular values. The uncertainty investigation is based on the overall system found and the stability condition associated with it; depending on the scheme used, to set an upper/lower limit weighting parameter. This creates a region that should not be exceeded in selecting the weighting parameter which in turns assures performance improvement against system uncertainty. Repetitive control problem can be described in lifted form. This allows the usage of singular values principle in setting the range for the weighting parameter selection. The Simulation results obtained show a tracking error convergence against dynamic system perturbation if the weighting parameter chosen is within the range obtained. Simulation results also show the advantage of weighting parameter usage compared to the case where it is omitted.

Keywords: model mismatch, repetitive control, singular values, state feedback

Procedia PDF Downloads 146

Authors: Roberta Martino, Viviana Ventre

Abstract:

Every day we face choices whose consequences are deferred in time. These types of choices are the intertemporal choices and play an important role in the social, economic, and financial world. The Discounted Utility Model is the mathematical model of reference to calculate the utility of intertemporal prospects. The discount rate is the main element of the model as it describes how the individual perceives the indeterminacy of subsequent periods. Empirical evidence has shown a discrepancy between the behavior expected from the predictions of the model and the effective choices made from the decision makers. In particular, the term temporal inconsistency indicates those choices that do not remain optimal with the passage of time. This phenomenon has been described with hyperbolic models of the discount rate which, unlike the linear or exponential nature assumed by the discounted utility model, is not constant over time. This paper explores the problem of inconsistency by tracing the decision-making process through the concept of impatience. The degree of impatience and the degree of decrease of impatience are two parameters that allow to quantify the weight of emotional factors and cognitive limitations during the evaluation and selection of alternatives. In fact, although the theory assumes perfectly rational decision makers, behavioral finance and cognitive psychology have made it possible to understand that distortions in the decision-making process and emotional influence have an inevitable impact on the decision-making process. The degree to which impatience is diminished is the focus of the first part of the study. By comparing consistent and inconsistent preferences over time, it was possible to verify that some anomalies in the discounted utility model are a result of the combination of cognitive bias and emotional factors. In particular: the delay effect and the interval effect are compared through the concept of misperception of time; starting from psychological considerations, a criterion is proposed to identify the causes of the magnitude effect that considers the differences in outcomes rather than their ratio; the sign effect is analyzed by integrating in the evaluation of prospects with negative outcomes the psychological aspects of loss aversion provided by Prospect Theory. An experiment implemented confirms three findings: the greatest variation in the degree of decrease in impatience corresponds to shorter intervals close to the present; the greatest variation in the degree of impatience occurs for outcomes of lower magnitude; the variation in the degree of impatience is greatest for negative outcomes. The experimental phase was implemented with the construction of the hyperbolic factor through the administration of questionnaires constructed for each anomaly. This work formalizes the underlying causes of the discrepancy between the discounted utility model and the empirical evidence of preference reversal.

Keywords: decreasing impatience, discount utility model, hyperbolic discount, hyperbolic factor, impatience

Procedia PDF Downloads 100