Search results for: modified simplex algorithm

Authors: Firdaous Zair, Zoubir Elfelsoufi, Mohammed Fourka

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The allocation of resources is an issue that is needed on the tactical and operational strategic plan. This work considers the allocation of resources in the case of pure players, manufacturers and Click & Mortars that have launched online sales. The aim is to improve the level of customer satisfaction and maintaining the benefits of e-retailer and of its cooperators and reducing costs and risks. Our contribution is a decision support system and tool for improving the allocation of resources in logistics chains e-commerce B2C context. We first modeled the B2C chain with all operations that integrates and possible scenarios since online retailers offer a wide selection of personalized service. The personalized services that online shopping companies offer to the clients can be embodied in many aspects, such as the customizations of payment, the distribution methods, and after-sales service choices. In addition, every aspect of customized service has several modes. At that time, we analyzed the optimization problems of supply chain resource allocation in customized online shopping service mode, which is different from the supply chain resource allocation under traditional manufacturing or service circumstances. Then we realized an optimization model and algorithm for the development based on the analysis of the allocation of the B2C supply chain resources. It is a multi-objective optimization that considers the collaboration of resources in operations, time and costs but also the risks and the quality of services as well as dynamic and uncertain characters related to the request.

Keywords: e-commerce, supply chain, B2C, optimisation, resource allocation

Procedia PDF Downloads 274

Authors: Bingchun Liu, Pei-Chann Chang, Natasha Huang, Dun Li

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Machine Learning and Data Mining are the two important tools for extracting useful information and knowledge from large datasets. In machine learning, classification is a wildly used technique to predict qualitative variables and is generally preferred over regression from an operational point of view. Due to the enormous increase in air pollution in various countries especially China, Air Quality Classification has become one of the most important topics in air quality research and modelling. This study aims at introducing a hybrid classification model based on information theory and Support Vector Machine (SVM) using the air quality data of four cities in China namely Beijing, Guangzhou, Shanghai and Tianjin from Jan 1, 2014 to April 30, 2016. China's Ministry of Environmental Protection has classified the daily air quality into 6 levels namely Serious Pollution, Severe Pollution, Moderate Pollution, Light Pollution, Good and Excellent based on their respective Air Quality Index (AQI) values. Using the information theory, information gain (IG) is calculated and feature selection is done for both categorical features and continuous numeric features. Then SVM Machine Learning algorithm is implemented on the selected features with cross-validation. The final evaluation reveals that the IG and SVM hybrid model performs better than SVM (alone), Artificial Neural Network (ANN) and K-Nearest Neighbours (KNN) models in terms of accuracy as well as complexity.

Keywords: machine learning, air quality classification, air quality index, information gain, support vector machine, cross-validation

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Authors: Mohamed Al-Badrashiny, Abdelghani Bellaachia

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This paper presents a classifier ensemble approach for predicting the survivability of the breast cancer patients using the latest database version of the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) Program of the National Cancer Institute. The system consists of two main components; features selection and classifier ensemble components. The features selection component divides the features in SEER database into four groups. After that it tries to find the most important features among the four groups that maximizes the weighted average F-score of a certain classification algorithm. The ensemble component uses three different classifiers, each of which models different set of features from SEER through the features selection module. On top of them, another classifier is used to give the final decision based on the output decisions and confidence scores from each of the underlying classifiers. Different classification algorithms have been examined; the best setup found is by using the decision tree, Bayesian network, and Na¨ıve Bayes algorithms for the underlying classifiers and Na¨ıve Bayes for the classifier ensemble step. The system outperforms all published systems to date when evaluated against the exact same data of SEER (period of 1973-2002). It gives 87.39% weighted average F-score compared to 85.82% and 81.34% of the other published systems. By increasing the data size to cover the whole database (period of 1973-2014), the overall weighted average F-score jumps to 92.4% on the held out unseen test set.

Keywords: classifier ensemble, breast cancer survivability, data mining, SEER

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Authors: Sila Akhan, Muge Toygar, Murat Sayan, Simge Fidan

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Chronic viral hepatitis B, C, and D can cause hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC), cirrhosis and death. The proper treatment reduce the risk of development of HCC importantly, but not to zero point. Materials and Methods: We analysed retrospectively our chronic viral hepatitis B, C and D patients who attended to our Infectious Diseases policlinic between 2004-2018. From 589 biopsy-proven chronic hepatitis patients 3 have hepatocellular carcinoma on our follow up. First case is 74 years old patient. His HCV infection diagnosis was made 8 years ago. First treatment was pegylated interferon plus ribavirin only 28 weeks, because of HCV RNA breakthrough under treatment. In 2013 he was retreated with telaprevir, pegylated interferon plus ribavirin 24 weeks. But at the end of the therapy HCV RNA was found 1.290.000 IU/mL. He has abdominal ultrasonography (US) controls and alpha-fetoprotein (AFP) at 6 months intervals. All seemed normal until 2015 then he has an abdominal magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) and found HCC by chance. His treatment began in Oncology Clinic after verified with biopsy of HCC. And then sofosbuvir/ledipasvir was given to him for HCV 24 weeks. Sustained virologic response (SVR) was obtained. He is on cure for HCV infection and under control of Oncology for HCC. Second patient is 36 years old man. He knows his HBV infection since 2008. HBsAg and HBeAg positive; HDV RNA negative. Liver biopsy revealed grade:4, stage 3-4 according modified Knodell scoring system. In 2010 tenofovir treatment was began. His abdominal US and AFP were normal. His controls took place at 6 months intervals and HBV DNA negative, US, and AFP were normal until 2016 continuously. AFP found 37 above the normal range and then HCC was found in MRI. Third patient is 57 years old man. As hepatitis B infection was first diagnosed; he has cirrhosis and was began tenofovir as treatment. In short time he has HCC despite normal AFP values. Conclusion: In Mediterranian countries including Turkey naturally occurring pre-S/S variants are more than 75% of all chronic hepatitis B patients. This variants may contribute to the development of progressive liver damage and hepatocarcinogenesis. HCV-induced development of HCC is a gradual process and is affected by the duration of disease and viral genotype. All the chronic viral hepatitis patients should be followed up in 6 months intervals not only with US and AFP for HCC. Despite they have proper treatment there is always the risk development of HCC. Chronic hepatitis patients cannot be dropped from follow up even treated well.

Keywords: HCC, HCV, HBV, DAA

Procedia PDF Downloads 139

Authors: Endris Yibru Hanurry, Wei-Hsin Hsu, Hsieh-Chih Tsai

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In recent years, the discovery of small interfering RNAs (siRNAs) has got great attention for the treatment of cancer and other diseases. However, the therapeutic efficacy of siRNAs has been faced with many drawbacks because of short half-life in blood circulation, poor membrane penetration, weak endosomal escape and inadequate release into the cytosol. To overcome these drawbacks, we designed a non-viral vector by conjugating polyamidoamine generation 4.5 dendrimer (PDG4.5) with diethylenetriamine (DETA)- and tetraethylenepentamine (TEPA) followed by binding with siRNA to form polyplexes through electrostatic interaction. The result of 1H nuclear magnetic resonance (NMR), 13C NMR, correlation spectroscopy, heteronuclear single–quantum correlation spectroscopy, and Fourier transform infrared spectroscopy confirmed the successful conjugation of DETA and TEPA with PDG4.5. Then, the size, surface charge, morphology, binding ability, stability, release assay, toxicity and cellular internalization were analyzed to explore the physicochemical and biological properties of PDG4.5-DETA and PDG4.5-TEPA polyplexes at specific N/P ratios. The polyplexes (N/P = 8) exhibited spherical nanosized (125 and 85 nm) particles with optimum surface charge (13 and 26 mV), showed strong siRNA binding ability, protected the siRNA against enzyme digestion and accepted biocompatibility to the HeLa cells. Qualitatively, the fluorescence microscopy image revealed the delocalization (Manders’ coefficient 0.63 and 0.53 for PDG4.5-DETA and PDG4.5-TEPA, respectively) of polyplexes and the translocation of the siRNA throughout the cytosol to show a decent cellular internalization and intracellular biodistribution of polyplexes in HeLa cells. Quantitatively, the flow cytometry result indicated that a significant (P < 0.05) amount of siRNA was internalized by cells treated with PDG4.5-DETA (68.5%) and PDG4.5-TEPA (73%) polyplexes. Generally, PDG4.5-DETA and PDG4.5-TEPA were ideal nanocarriers of siRNA in vitro and might be used as promising candidates for in vivo study and future pharmaceutical applications.

Keywords: non-viral carrier, oligoalkylamine, poly(amidoamine) dendrimer, polyplexes, siRNA

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Authors: Virginia Martin Torrejon, Binjie Wu

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Gelatine is a protein biopolymer obtained from the partial hydrolysis of animal tissues which contain collagen, the primary structural component in connective tissue. Gelatine hydrogels have attracted considerable research in recent years as an alternative to synthetic materials due to their outstanding gelling properties, biocompatibility and compostability. Surfactants, such as sodium dodecyl sulfate (SDS), are often used in hydrogels solutions as surface modifiers or solubility enhancers, and their incorporation can influence the hydrogel’s viscoelastic properties and, in turn, its processing and applications. Literature usually focuses on studying the impact of formulation parameters (e.g., gelatine content, gelatine strength, additives incorporation) on gelatine hydrogels properties, but processing parameters, such as curing temperature, are commonly overlooked. For example, some authors have reported a decrease in gel strength at lower curing temperatures, but there is a lack of research on systematic viscoelastic characterisation of high strength gelatine and gelatine-SDS systems at a wide range of curing temperatures. This knowledge is essential to meet and adjust the technological requirements for different applications (e.g., viscosity, setting time, gel strength or melting/gelling temperature). This work investigated the effect of curing temperature (10, 15, 20, 23 and 25 and 30°C) on the elastic modulus (G’) and melting temperature of high strength gelatine-SDS hydrogels, at 10 wt% and 20 wt% gelatine contents, by small-amplitude oscillatory shear rheology coupled with Fourier Transform Infrared Spectroscopy. It also correlates the gel strength obtained by rheological measurements with the gel strength measured by texture analysis. Gelatine and gelatine-SDS hydrogels’ rheological behaviour strongly depended on the curing temperature, and its gel strength and melting temperature can be slightly modified to adjust it to given processing and applications needs. Lower curing temperatures led to gelatine and gelatine-SDS hydrogels with considerably higher storage modulus. However, their melting temperature was lower than those gels cured at higher temperatures and lower gel strength. This effect was more considerable at longer timescales. This behaviour is attributed to the development of thermal-resistant structures in the lower strength gels cured at higher temperatures.

Keywords: gelatine gelation kinetics, gelatine-SDS interactions, gelatine-surfactant hydrogels, melting and gelling temperature of gelatine gels, rheology of gelatine hydrogels

Procedia PDF Downloads 102

Authors: Roongtiwa Chobchuen, Siriporn Mongkholthawornchai, Boonsong Hatawaikarn, Uriwan Chaichangreet, Kobkaew Thongtid, Pusda Pukdeekumjorn, Panita Limpawattana

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Background: Age-friendly nursing service system in Srinagarind Hospital has been developed continuously based on the value and cultural background of Thailand which corporates with the modified WHO’s Age friendly Primary Care Service System. It consists of 3 issues; 1) development of staff training, 2) age-friendly service and 3) appropriate physical environment. Objective: To evaluate the efficacy of Age-friendly Nursing Service System: KKU (AFNS:KKU) model and to evaluate factors associated with nursing perception with AFN:KKU. Study design: Descriptive study Setting: 31 wards that served older patients in Srinagarind Hospital Populations: Nursing staff from 11 departments (31 wards) Instrument: Age-friendly nursing care scale as perceived by hospitalized older person Procedure and statistical analysis: All participants were asked questions using age-friendly nursing care scale as perceived by hospitalized older person questionnaires. Descriptive statistics and multiple logistic regression analyses were used to analyse the outcomes. Results: There were 337 participants recruited in this study. The majority of them were women (92%) with the mean ages of 29 years and 77.45% were nurse practitioners. They had average nursing experiences of 5 years. The average scores of age-friendly nursing care scale were high and highest in the area of attitude and communication. Age, sex, educational level, duration of work among, and having experience in aging training were not associated with nursing perception where type of department was an independent factor. Nurses from department of Surgery and Orthopedic, Eye and ENT, special ward and Obstetrics and Gynecological had significant greater perception than nurses from Internal Medicine Department (p < 0.05). Conclusion: Nurses had high scores in all dimensions of age-friendly concept. The result indicates that nurses have good attitude to aging care which can lead to improve quality of care. Organization should support other domains of ageing care to achieve greater effectiveness in geriatric care.

Keywords: age-friendly, nursing service system, excellence model, geriatric care

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Authors: Qing Zhang, Jiachen Nie, Yujia Wen, Guanyuan Kou, Peng Yu, Kun Xia, Qin Yang, Li Ding

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BACKGROUND: A facility layout problem (FLP) is an NP-complete (non-deterministic polynomial) problem, which is hard to obtain an exact optimal solution. FLP has been widely studied in various limited spaces and workflows. For example, cafeterias with many types of equipment for troops cause chaotic processes when dining. OBJECTIVE: This article tried to optimize the layout of troops’ cafeteria and to improve the overall efficiency of the dining process. METHODS: First, the original cafeteria layout design scheme was analyzed from an ergonomic perspective and two new design schemes were generated. Next, three facility layout models were designed, and further simulation was applied to compare the total time and density of troops between each scheme. Last, an experiment of the dining process with video observation and analysis verified the simulation results. RESULTS: In a simulation, the dining time under the second new layout is shortened by 2.25% and 1.89% (p<0.0001, p=0.0001) compared with the other two layouts, while troops-flow density and interference both greatly reduced in the two new layouts. In the experiment, process completing time and the number of interference reduced as well, which verified corresponding simulation results. CONCLUSIONS: Our two new layout schemes are tested to be optimal by a series of simulation and space experiments. In future research, similar approaches could be applied when taking layout-design algorithm calculation into consideration.

Keywords: layout optimization, dining efficiency, troops’ cafeteria, anylogic simulation, field experiment

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Authors: Komal Vig, Syamala Soumyakrishnan, Yadav Baral

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Bypass surgery, using the autologous vein has been one of the most effective treatments for cardiovascular diseases (CVD). More recently tissue engineering including engineered vascular grafts to synthesize blood vessels is gaining usage. Dacron and ePTFE has been employed for vascular grafts, however, these does not work well for small diameter grafts (<6 mm) due to intimal hyperplasia and thrombosis. In the present study PTFE was treated with LTP to improve the endothelialization of intimal surface of graft. Scaffolds were also modified with polyvinylpyrrolidone coated silver nanoparticles (Ag-PVP) and the antimicrobial peptides, p753 and p359. Human umbilical vein endothelial cells (HUVEC) were plated on the developed scaffolds and cell proliferation was determined by the MTT assay. Cells attachment on scaffolds was visualized by microscopy. mRNA expressions levels of different cell markers were investigated using quantitative real-time PCR (qPCR). X ray photoelectron spectroscopic confirmed the introduction of oxygenated functionalities from LTP air plasma. Microscopic and MTT assays indicated increase in cell viability in LTP treated scaffolds. Gene expression studies shows enhanced expression of cell adhesion marker Integrin- α 5 gene after LTP treatment. The KB test displayed a zone of inhibition for Ag-PVP, p753 and p359 of 19mm, 14mm, and 12mm respectively. To determine toxicity of antimicrobial agents to cells, MTT Assay was performed using HEK293 cells. MTT Assay exhibited that Ag-PVP and the peptides were non-toxic to cells at 100μg/mL and 50μg/mL, respectively. Live/dead analysis and plate count of treated bacteria exhibited bacterial inhibition on develop scaffold compared to non-treated scaffold. SEM was performed to analyze the structural changes of bacteria after treatment with antimicrobial agents. Gene expression studies were conducted on RNA from bacteria treated with Ag-PVP and peptides using qRT-PCR. Based on our initial results, more scaffolds alternatives will be developed and investigated for cell growth and vascularization studies.

Keywords: low temperature plasma, vascular graft, HUVEC cells, antimicrobial

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Authors: P. Geetha, R. S. D. Wahida Banu

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The crowning advances in Silicon based electronic technology have dominated the computation world for the past decades. The captivating performance of Si devices lies in sustainable scaling down of the physical dimensions, by that increasing device density and improved performance. But, the fundamental limitations due to physical, technological, economical, and manufacture features restrict further miniaturization of Si based devices. The pit falls are due to scaling down of the devices such as process variation, short channel effects, high leakage currents, and reliability concerns. To fix the above-said problems, it is needed either to follow a new concept that will manage the current hitches or to support the available concept with different materials. The new concept is to design spintronics, quantum computation or two terminal molecular devices. Otherwise, presently used well known three terminal devices can be modified with different materials that suits to address the scaling down difficulties. The first approach will occupy in the far future since it needs considerable effort; the second path is a bright light towards the travel. Modelling paves way to know not only the current-voltage characteristics but also the performance of new devices. So, it is desirable to model a new device of suitable gate control and project the its abilities towards capability of handling high current, high power, high frequency, short delay, and high velocity with excellent electronic and optical properties. Carbon nanotube became a thriving material to replace silicon in nano devices. A well-planned optimized utilization of the carbon material leads to many more advantages. The unique nature of this organic material allows the recent developments in almost all fields of applications from an automobile industry to medical science, especially in electronics field-on which the automation industry depends. More research works were being done in this area. This paper reviews the carbon nanotube field effect transistor with various gate configurations, number of channel element, CNT wall configurations and different modelling techniques.

Keywords: array of channels, carbon nanotube field effect transistor, double gate transistor, gate wrap around transistor, modelling, multi-walled CNT, single-walled CNT

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Authors: Bernard Kumi-Boateng, Issaka Yakubu

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Forest fire, which is, an uncontrolled fire occurring in nature has become a major concern for the Forestry Commission of Ghana (FCG). The forest fires in Ghana usually result in massive destruction and take a long time for the firefighting crews to gain control over the situation. In order to assess the effect of forest fire at local scale, it is important to consider the role fire plays in vegetation composition, biodiversity, soil erosion, and the hydrological cycle. The occurrence, frequency and behaviour of forest fires vary over time and space, primarily as a result of the complicated influences of changes in land use, vegetation composition, fire suppression efforts, and other indigenous factors. One of the forest zones in Ghana with a high level of vegetation stress is the Goaso forest area. The area has experienced changes in its traditional land use such as hunting, charcoal production, inefficient logging practices and rural abandonment patterns. These factors which were identified as major causes of forest fire, have recently modified the incidence of fire in the Goaso area. In spite of the incidence of forest fires in the Goaso forest area, most of the forest services do not provide a cartographic representation of the burned areas. This has resulted in significant amount of information being required by the firefighting unit of the FCG to understand fire risk factors and its spatial effects. This study uses Remote Sensing and Geographic Information System techniques to develop a fire risk hazard model using the Goaso Forest Area (GFA) as a case study. From the results of the study, natural forest, agricultural lands and plantation cover types were identified as the major fuel contributing loads. However, water bodies, roads and settlements were identified as minor fuel contributing loads. Based on the major and minor fuel contributing loads, a forest fire risk hazard model with a reasonable accuracy has been developed for the GFA to assist decision making.

Keywords: forest, GIS, remote sensing, Goaso

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Authors: Christoph Ostermair

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We deal with the effect of correlation between prospects on human decision making under uncertainty as proposed by the comparatively new and promising model of “salience theory of choice under risk”. In this regard, we show that the theory entails the prediction that the inconsistency of choices, known as the Allais paradox, should not be an issue in the context of “real-life decision making”, which typically corresponds to situations of subjective uncertainty. The Allais paradox, probably the best-known anomaly regarding expected utility theory, would then essentially have no practical relevance. If, however, empiricism contradicts this prediction, salience theory might suffer a serious setback. Explanations of the model for variable human choice behavior are mostly the result of a particular mechanism that does not come to play under perfect correlation. Hence, if it turns out that correlation between prospects – as typically found in real-world applications – does not influence human decision making in the expected way, this might to a large extent cost the theory its explanatory power. The empirical literature regarding the Allais paradox under subjective uncertainty is so far rather moderate. Beyond that, the results are hard to maintain as an argument, as the presentation formats commonly employed, supposably have generated so-called event-splitting effects, thereby distorting subjects’ choice behavior. In our own incentivized experimental study, we control for such effects by means of two different choice settings. We find significant event-splitting effects in both settings, thereby supporting the suspicion that the so far existing empirical results related to Allais paradoxes under subjective uncertainty may not be able to answer the question at hand. Nevertheless, we find that the basic tendency behind the Allais paradox, which is a particular switch of the preference relation due to a modified common consequence, shared by two prospects, is still existent both under an event-splitting and a coalesced presentation format. Yet, the modal choice pattern is in line with the prediction of salience theory. As a consequence, the effect of correlation, as proposed by the model, might - if anything - only weaken the systematic choice pattern behind the Allais paradox.

Keywords: Allais paradox, common consequence effect, models of decision making under risk and uncertainty, salience theory

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Authors: Ajai Singh

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Simulation of hydrological processes at the watershed outlet through modelling approach is essential for proper planning and implementation of appropriate soil conservation measures in Damodar Barakar catchment, Hazaribagh, India where soil erosion is a dominant problem. This study quantifies the parametric uncertainty involved in simulation of stream flow using Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT), a watershed scale model and Radial Basis Neural Network (RBNN), an artificial neural network model. Both the models were calibrated and validated based on measured stream flow and quantification of the uncertainty in SWAT model output was assessed using ‘‘Sequential Uncertainty Fitting Algorithm’’ (SUFI-2). Though both the model predicted satisfactorily, but RBNN model performed better than SWAT with R2 and NSE values of 0.92 and 0.92 during training, and 0.71 and 0.70 during validation period, respectively. Comparison of the results of the two models also indicates a wider prediction interval for the results of the SWAT model. The values of P-factor related to each model shows that the percentage of observed stream flow values bracketed by the 95PPU in the RBNN model as 91% is higher than the P-factor in SWAT as 87%. In other words the RBNN model estimates the stream flow values more accurately and with less uncertainty. It could be stated that RBNN model based on simple input could be used for estimation of monthly stream flow, missing data, and testing the accuracy and performance of other models.

Keywords: SWAT, RBNN, SUFI 2, bootstrap technique, stream flow, simulation

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Authors: Rhea Kapoor

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Fractal dimension provides a way to characterize non-geometric shapes like those found in nature. The purpose of this research is to estimate Minkowski fractal dimension of human lung images for early detection of lung cancer. Lung cancer is the leading cause of death among all types of cancer and an early histopathological analysis will help reduce deaths primarily due to late diagnosis. A Python application program, PathoPy2.0, was developed for analyzing medical images in pixelated format and estimating Minkowski fractal dimension using a new box-counting algorithm that allows windowing of images for more accurate calculation in the suspected areas of cancerous growth. Benchmark geometric fractals were used to validate the accuracy of the program and changes in fractal dimension of lung images to indicate the presence of issues in the lung. The accuracy of the program for the benchmark examples was between 93-99% of known values of the fractal dimensions. Fractal dimension values were then calculated for lung images, from National Cancer Institute, taken over time to correctly detect the presence of cancerous growth. For example, as the fractal dimension for a given lung increased from 1.19 to 1.27 due to cancerous growth, it represents a significant change in fractal dimension which lies between 1 and 2 for 2-D images. Based on the results obtained on many lung test cases, it was concluded that fractal dimension of human lungs can be used to diagnose lung cancer early. The ideas behind PathoPy2.0 can also be applied to study patterns in the electrical activity of the human brain and DNA matching.

Keywords: fractals, histopathological analysis, image processing, lung cancer, Minkowski dimension

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Authors: Shalaka Kadam, Dinesh Apte, Sagar Mainkar

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The life cycle of products is becoming shorter and shorter due to increased competition in market, shorter product development time and increased product diversity. Short life cycles are normal in retail industry, style business, entertainment media, and telecom and semiconductor industry. The subject of accurate forecasting for demand of short lifecycle products is of special enthusiasm for many researchers and organizations. Due to short life cycle of products the amount of historical data that is available for forecasting is very minimal or even absent when new or modified products are launched in market. The companies dealing with such products want to increase the accuracy in demand forecasting so that they can utilize the full potential of the market at the same time do not oversupply. This provides the challenge to develop a forecasting model that can forecast accurately while handling large variations in data and consider the complex relationships between various parameters of data. Many statistical models have been proposed in literature for forecasting time series data. Traditional time series forecasting models do not work well for short life cycles due to lack of historical data. Also artificial neural networks (ANN) models are very time consuming to perform forecasting. We have studied the existing models that are used for forecasting and their limitations. This work proposes an effective and powerful forecasting approach for short life cycle time series forecasting. We have proposed an approach which takes into consideration different scenarios related to data availability for short lifecycle products. We then suggest a methodology which combines statistical analysis with structured judgement. Also the defined approach can be applied across domains. We then describe the method of creating a profile from analogous products. This profile can then be used for forecasting products with historical data of analogous products. We have designed an application which combines data, analytics and domain knowledge using point-and-click technology. The forecasting results generated are compared using MAPE, MSE and RMSE error scores. Conclusion: Based on the results it is observed that no one approach is sufficient for short life-cycle forecasting and we need to combine two or more approaches for achieving the desired accuracy.

Keywords: forecast, short life cycle product, structured judgement, time series

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Authors: Simon Arunga, Teddy Kwaga, Rita Kageni, Michael Gichangi, Nyawira Mwangi, Fred Kagwa, Rogers Mwavu, Amos Baryashaba, Luis F. Nakayama, Katharine Morley, Michael Morley, Leo A. Celi, Jessica Haberer, Celestino Obua

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Purpose: The main aim for creating the Multimodal Database of Retinal Images for Africa (MoDRIA) was to provide a publicly available repository of retinal images for responsible researchers to conduct algorithm development in a bid to curb the challenges of ophthalmic artificial intelligence (AI) in Africa. Methods: Data and retina images were ethically sourced from sites in Uganda and Kenya. Data on medical history, visual acuity, ocular examination, blood pressure, and blood sugar were collected. Retina images were captured using fundus cameras (Foru3-nethra and Canon CR-Mark-1). Images were stored on a secure online database. Results: The database consists of 7,859 retinal images in portable network graphics format from 1,988 participants. Images from patients with human immunodeficiency virus were 18.9%, 18.2% of images were from hypertensive patients, 12.8% from diabetic patients, and the rest from normal’ participants. Conclusion: Publicly available data repositories are a valuable asset in the development of AI technology. Therefore, is a need for the expansion of MoDRIA so as to provide larger datasets that are more representative of Sub-Saharan data.

Keywords: retina images, MoDRIA, image repository, African database

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Authors: Timine Suoware, Sylvester Edelugo, Charles Amgbari

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The susceptibility of natural fibre polymer composites to flame has necessitated research to improve and develop flame retardant (FR) to delay the escape of combustible volatiles. Previous approaches relied mostly on FR such as aluminium tri-hydroxide (ATH) and ammonium polyphosphate (APP) to improve fire performances of wood sawdust polymer composites (WSPC) with emphasis on non-structural building applications. In this paper, APP was modified with gum Arabic powder (GAP) and then hybridized with ATH at 0, 12 and 18% loading ratio to form new FR species; WSPC12%APP-GAP and WSPC18%ATH/APP-GAP. The FR species were incorporated in wood sawdust waste reinforced in polyester resin to form panels for fireproof doors. The panels were produced using hand lay compression moulding technique and cured at room temperature. Specimen cut from panels were then tested for tensile strength (TS), flexural strength (FS) and impact strength (IS) using universal testing machine and impact tester; thermal stability using (TGA/DSC 1: Metler Toledo); time-to-ignition (Tig), heat release rates (HRR); peak HRR (HRRp), average HRR (HRRavg), total HRR (THR), peak mass loss rate (MLRp), average smoke production rate (SPRavg) and carbon monoxide production (COP ) were obtained using the cone calorimeter apparatus. From the mechanical properties obtained, improvements of IS for the panels were not noticeable whereas TS and FS for WSPC12%APP-GAP respectively stood at 12.44 MPa and 85.58 MPa more than those without FR (WSPC0%). For WSC18%ATH/APP-GAP TS and FS respectively stood at 16.45 MPa and 50.49 MPa more compared to (WSPC0%). From the thermal analysis, the panels did not exhibit any significant change as early degradation was observed. At 900 OC, the char residues improved by 15% for WSPC12%APP-GAP and 19% for WSPC18%ATH/APP-GAP more than (WSC0%) at 5%, confirming the APP-GAP to be a good FR. At 50 kW/m2 heat flux (HF), WSPC12%APP-GAP improved better the fire behaviour of the panels when compared to WSC0% as follows; Tig = 46 s, HRRp = 56.1 kW/2, HRRavg = 32.8 kW/m2, THR = 66.6 MJ/m2, MLRp = 0.103 g/s, TSR = 0.04 m2/s and COP = 0.051 kg/kg. These were respectively more than WSC0%. It can be concluded that the new concept of modifying FR with GAP in WSC could meet the requirement of a fireproof door for building applications.

Keywords: composite, flame retardant, wood sawdust, fireproof doors

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Authors: Xiaoying Guo, Xiangyun Wang, Chunhua Jia

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Web page has been one of the most important way of knowing the world. Humans catch a lot of information from it everyday. Thus, understanding where human looks when they surfing the web pages is rather important. In normal scenes, the down-top features and top-down tasks significantly affect humans’ eye movement. In this paper, we investigated if the conventional visual salience algorithm can properly predict humans’ visual attractive region when they viewing the web pages. First, we obtained the eye movement data when the participants viewing the web pages using an eye tracker. By the analysis of eye movement data, we studied the influence of visual saliency and thinking way on eye-movement pattern. The analysis result showed that thinking way affect human’ eye-movement pattern much more than visual saliency. Second, we compared the results of web page visual salience region extracted by Itti model and Spectral Residual (SR) model. The results showed that Spectral Residual (SR) model performs superior than Itti model by comparison with the heat map from eye movements. Considering the influence of mind habit on humans’ visual region of interest, we introduced one of the most important cue in mind habit-fixation position to improved the SR model. The result showed that the improved SR model can better predict the human visual region of interest in web pages.

Keywords: web page salience region, eye-tracker, spectral residual, visual salience

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Authors: Dileep Maarisetty, Janaki Komandur, Saroj S. Baral

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In the current work, photocatalytic degradation of phenol was carried both in UV and visible light to find the slowest step that is limiting the rate of photo-degradation process. Characterization such as XRD, SEM, FT-IR, TEM, XPS, UV-DRS, PL, BET, UPS, ESR and zeta potential experiments were conducted to assess the credibility of catalysts in boosting the photocatalytic activity. To explore the synergy, TiO₂ was doped with graphene and alumina. The orbital hybridization with alumina doping (mediated by graphene) resulted in higher electron transfer from the conduction band of TiO₂ to alumina surface where oxygen reduction reactions (ORR) occur. Besides, the doping of alumina and graphene introduced defects into Ti lattice and helped in improving the adsorptive properties of modified photo-catalyst. Results showed that these defects promoted the oxygen reduction reactions (ORR) on the catalyst’s surface. ORR activity aims at producing reactive oxygen species (ROS). These ROS species oxidizes the phenol molecules which is adsorbed on the surface of photo-catalysts, thereby driving the photocatalytic reactions. Since mass transfer is considered as rate limiting step, various mathematical models were applied to the experimental data to probe the best fit. By varying the parameters, it was found that intra-particle diffusion was the slowest step in the degradation process. Lagergren model gave the best R² values indicating the nature of rate kinetics. Similarly, different adsorption isotherms were employed and realized that Langmuir isotherm suits the best with tremendous increase in uptake capacity (mg/g) of TiO₂-rGO-Al₂O₃ as compared undoped TiO₂. This further assisted in higher adsorption of phenol molecules. The results obtained from experimental, kinetic modelling and adsorption isotherms; it is concluded that apart from changes in surface, optoelectronic and morphological properties that enhanced the photocatalytic activity, the intra-particle diffusion within the catalyst’s pores serve as rate-limiting step in deciding the fate of photo-catalytic degradation of phenol.

Keywords: ORR, phenol degradation, photo-catalyst, rate kinetics

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Authors: Jalil Qoulizadeh, Hasan Sadeghi

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Brain waves are electrical wave patterns that are produced in the human brain. Knowing these waves and activating them can have a positive effect on brain function and ultimately create an ideal life. The brain has the ability to produce waves from 0.1 to above 65 Hz. (The Beta One device produces exactly these waves) This is because it is said that the waves produced by the Beta One device exactly match the waves produced by the brain. The function and method of this device is based on the magnetic stimulation of the brain. The technology used in the design and producƟon of this device works in a way to strengthen and improve the frequencies of brain waves with a pre-defined algorithm according to the type of requested function, so that the person can access the expected functions in life activities. to perform better. The effect of this field on neurons and their stimulation: In order to evaluate the effect of this field created by the device, on the neurons, the main tests are by conducting electroencephalography before and after stimulation and comparing these two baselines by qEEG or quantitative electroencephalography method using paired t-test in 39 subjects. It confirms the significant effect of this field on the change of electrical activity recorded after 30 minutes of stimulation in all subjects. The Beta One device is able to induce the appropriate pattern of the expected functions in a soft and effective way to the brain in a healthy and effective way (exactly in accordance with the harmony of brain waves), the process of brain activities first to a normal state and then to a powerful one. Production of inexpensive neuroscience equipment (compared to existing rTMS equipment) Magnetic brain stimulation for clinics - homes - factories and companies - professional sports clubs.

Keywords: stimulation, brain, waves, betaOne

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Authors: Tim Nikolsky

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This paper seeks to explore the different ways in which music producers choose to embrace various levels of technology based on musical values, objectives, affordability, access and workflow benefits. Current digital audio production workflow is questioned. Engineers and music producers of today are increasingly divorced from the tangibility of music production. Making music no longer requires you to reach over and turn a knob. Ideas of authenticity in music production are being redefined. Calculations from the mathematical algorithm with the pretty pictures are increasingly being chosen over hardware containing transformers and tubes. Are mouse clicks and movements equivalent or inferior to the master brush strokes we are seeking to conjure? We are making audio production decisions visually by constantly looking at a screen rather than listening. Have we compromised our music objectives and values by removing the ‘hands-on’ nature of music making? DAW interfaces are making our musical decisions for us not necessarily in our best interests. Technological innovation has presented opportunities as well as challenges for education. What do music production students actually need to learn in a formalised education environment, and to what extent do they need to know it? In this brave new world of omnipresent music creation tools, do we still need tangibility in music production? Interviews with prominent Australian music producers that work in a variety of fields will be featured in this paper, and will provide insight in answering these questions and move towards developing an understanding how tangibility can be rediscovered in the next generation of music production.

Keywords: analogue, digital, digital audio workstation, music production, plugins, tangibility, technology, workflow

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Authors: M. Asl. Dehghan, M. H. Daemi, S. Radmard, S. H. Nabavi

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Thin disk lasers are engineered for efficient thermal cooling and exhibit superior performance for this task. However the disk thickness and large pumped area make the use of this gain format in a resonator difficult when constructing a single-mode laser. Choosing an unstable resonator design is beneficial for this purpose. On the other hand, the low gain medium restricts the application of unstable resonators to low magnifications and therefore to a poor beam quality. A promising idea to enable the application of unstable resonators to wide aperture, low gain lasers is to couple a fraction of the out coupled radiation back into the resonator. The output coupling gets dependent on the ratio of the back reflection and can be adjusted independently from the magnification. The excitation of the converging wave can be done by the use of an external reflector. The resonator performance is numerically predicted. First of all the threshold condition of linear, V and 2V shape resonator is investigated. Results show that the maximum magnification is 1.066 that is very low for high quality purposes. Inserting an additional reflector covers the low gain. The reflectivity and the related magnification of a 350 micron Yb:YAG disk are calculated. The theoretical model was based on the coupled Kirchhoff integrals and solved numerically by the Fox and Li algorithm. Results show that with back reflection mechanism in combination with increasing the number of beam incidents on disk, high gain and high magnification can occur.

Keywords: unstable resonators, thin disk lasers, gain, external reflector

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Authors: Julius Onyancha, Valentina Plekhanova

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One of the significant issues facing web users is the amount of noise in web data which hinders the process of finding useful information in relation to their dynamic interests. Current research works consider noise as any data that does not form part of the main web page and propose noise web data reduction tools which mainly focus on eliminating noise in relation to the content and layout of web data. This paper argues that not all data that form part of the main web page is of a user interest and not all noise data is actually noise to a given user. Therefore, learning of noise web data allocated to the user requests ensures not only reduction of noisiness level in a web user profile, but also a decrease in the loss of useful information hence improves the quality of a web user profile. Noise Web Data Learning (NWDL) tool/algorithm capable of learning noise web data in web user profile is proposed. The proposed work considers elimination of noise data in relation to dynamic user interest. In order to validate the performance of the proposed work, an experimental design setup is presented. The results obtained are compared with the current algorithms applied in noise web data reduction process. The experimental results show that the proposed work considers the dynamic change of user interest prior to elimination of noise data. The proposed work contributes towards improving the quality of a web user profile by reducing the amount of useful information eliminated as noise.

Keywords: web log data, web user profile, user interest, noise web data learning, machine learning

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Authors: Ahmed Mahmoud Ahmed Abouelmagd

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The diversity is the usual remedy of the transmitted signal level variations (Fading phenomena) in radio frequency channels. Diversity techniques utilize two or more copies of a signal and combine those signals to combat fading. The basic concept of diversity is to transmit the signal via several independent diversity branches to get independent signal replicas via time – frequency - space - and polarization diversity domains. Coding and decoding processes can be an alternative remedy for fading phenomena, it cannot increase the channel capacity, but it can improve the error performance. In this paper we propose the use of replication decoding with BCH code class, and Viterbi decoding algorithm with convolution coding; as examples of coding and decoding processes. The results are compared to those obtained from two optimized selection space diversity techniques. The performance of Rayleigh fading channel, as the model considered for radio frequency channels, is evaluated for each case. The evaluation results show that the coding and decoding approaches, especially the BCH coding approach with replication decoding scheme, give better performance compared to that of selection space diversity optimization approaches. Also, an approach for combining the coding and decoding diversity as well as the space diversity is considered, the main disadvantage of this approach is its complexity but it yields good performance results.

Keywords: Rayleigh fading, diversity, BCH codes, Replication decoding, ‎convolution coding, viterbi decoding, space diversity

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Authors: Laura Amato, Paolo Mulatti, Fabrizio Montarsi, Matteo Mazzucato, Laura Gagliazzo, Michele Brichese, Manlio Palei, Gioia Capelli, Lebana Bonfanti

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West Nile virus (WNV) re-emerged in north-eastern Italy in 2008, after ten years from its first appearance in Tuscany. In 2009, a national surveillance programme was implemented, and re-modulated in north-eastern Italy in 2011. Hereby, we present the results of surveillance activities in 2008-2016 in the north-eastern Italian regions, with inferences on WNV epidemiological trend in the area. The re-modulated surveillance programmes aimed at early detecting WNV seasonal reactivation by searching IgM antibodies in horses. In 2013, the surveillance plans were further modified including a risk-based approach. Spatial analysis techniques, including Bernoulli space-time scan-statistics, were applied to the results of 2010–2012 surveillance on mosquitoes, equines, and humans to identify areas where WNV reactivation was more likely to occur. From 2008 to 2016, residential horses tested positive for anti-WNV antibodies on a yearly basis (503 cases), also in areas where WNV circulation was not detected in mosquito populations. Surveillance activities detected 26 syndromic cases in horses, 102 infected mosquito pools and WNV in 18 dead wild birds. Human cases were also recurrently detected in the study area during the surveillance period (68 cases of West Nile neuroinvasive disease). The recurrent identification of WNV in animals, mosquitoes, and humans indicates the virus has likely become endemic in the area. In 2016, findings of WNV positives in horses or mosquitoes were included as triggers for enhancing screening activities in humans. The evolution of the epidemiological situation prompts for continuous and accurate surveillance measures. The results of the 2013-2016 surveillance indicate that the risk-based approach was effective in early detecting seasonal reactivation of WNV, key factor of the integrated surveillance strategy in endemic areas.

Keywords: arboviruses, horses, Italy, surveillance, west nile virus, zoonoses

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Authors: Manop Aorpimai, Ponthep Navakitkanok

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In this paper, the development of the ephemeris generation module used for the Thaichote satellite operations is presented. It is a vital part of the flight dynamics system, which comprises, the orbit determination, orbit propagation, event prediction and station-keeping maneuver modules. In the generation of the spacecraft ephemeris data, the estimated orbital state vector from the orbit determination module is used as an initial condition. The equations of motion are then integrated forward in time to predict the satellite states. The higher geopotential harmonics, as well as other disturbing forces, are taken into account to resemble the environment in low-earth orbit. Using a highly accurate numerical integrator based on the Burlish-Stoer algorithm the ephemeris data can be generated for long-term predictions, by using a relatively small computation burden and short calculation time. Some events occurring during the prediction course that are related to the mission operations, such as the satellite’s rise/set viewed from the ground station, Earth and Moon eclipses, the drift in ground track as well as the drift in the local solar time of the orbital plane are all detected and reported. When combined with other modules to form a flight dynamics system, this application is aimed to be applied for the Thaichote satellite and successive Thailand’s Earth-observation missions.

Keywords: flight dynamics system, orbit propagation, satellite ephemeris, Thailand’s Earth Observation Satellite

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Authors: Mikhail O. Eremin

Abstract:

Present work is devoted to experimental study and numerical modelling of failure of rocks typical for Kuzbass coal basin (Russia). The main goal was to define strength and deformation characteristics of rocks on the base of uniaxial compression and three-point bending loadings and then to build a mathematical model of failure process for both types of loading. Depending on particular physical-mechanical characteristics typical rocks of Kuzbass coal basin (sandstones, siltstones, mudstones, etc. of different series – Kolchuginsk, Tarbagansk, Balohonsk) manifest brittle and quasi-brittle character of failure. The strength characteristics for both tension and compression are found. Other characteristics are also found from the experiment or taken from literature reviews. On the base of obtained characteristics and structure (obtained from microscopy) the mathematical and structural models are built and numerical modelling of failure under different types of loading is carried out. Effective characteristics obtained from modelling and character of failure correspond to experiment and thus, the mathematical model was verified. An Instron 1185 machine was used to carry out the experiments. Mathematical model includes fundamental conservation laws of solid mechanics – mass, impulse, energy. Each rock has a sufficiently anisotropic structure, however, each crystallite might be considered as isotropic and then a whole rock model has a quasi-isotropic structure. This idea gives an opportunity to use the Hooke’s law inside of each crystallite and thus explicitly accounting for the anisotropy of rocks and the stress-strain state at loading. Inelastic behavior is described in frameworks of two different models: von Mises yield criterion and modified Drucker-Prager yield criterion. The damage accumulation theory is also implemented in order to describe a failure process. Obtained effective characteristics of rocks are used then for modelling of rock mass evolution when mining is carried out both by an open-pit or underground opening.

Keywords: damage accumulation, Drucker-Prager yield criterion, failure, mathematical modelling, three-point bending, uniaxial compression

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Authors: Mehrshad Khosraviani, Faramarz Abbaspour Leyl Abadi

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The fundamental component of the computer network of modern information society will be considered. These networks are connected to the network of the internet generally. Due to the fact that the primary purpose of the Internet is not designed for, in recent decades, none of these networks in many of the attacks has been very important. Today, for the provision of security, different security tools and systems, including intrusion detection systems are used in the network. A common diagnosis system based on artificial immunity, the designer, the Adhasaz Foundation has been evaluated. The idea of using artificial safety methods in the diagnosis of abnormalities in computer networks it has been stimulated in the direction of their specificity, there are safety systems are similar to the common needs of m, that is non-diagnostic. For example, such methods can be used to detect any abnormalities, a variety of attacks, being memory, learning ability, and Khodtnzimi method of artificial immune algorithm pointed out. Diagnosis of the common system of education offered in this paper using only the normal samples is required for network and any additional data about the type of attacks is not. In the proposed system of positive selection and negative selection processes, selection of samples to create a distinction between the colony of normal attack is used. Copa real data collection on the evaluation of ij indicates the proposed system in the false alarm rate is often low compared to other ir methods and the detection rate is in the variations.

Keywords: artificial immune system, abnormality detection, intrusion detection, computer networks

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Authors: Seyedvahid Najafi, Viliam Makis

Abstract:

In recent years, maintenance optimization has attracted special attention due to the growth of industrial systems complexity. Maintenance costs are high for many systems, and preventive maintenance is effective when it increases operations' reliability and safety at a reduced cost. The novelty of this research is to consider general repair in the modeling of multi-unit series systems and solve the maintenance problem for such systems using the semi-Markov decision process (SMDP) framework. We propose an opportunistic maintenance policy for a series system composed of two main units. Unit 1, which is more expensive than unit 2, is subjected to condition monitoring, and its deterioration is modeled using a gamma process. Unit 1 hazard rate is estimated by the proportional hazards model (PHM), and two hazard rate control limits are considered as the thresholds of maintenance interventions for unit 1. Maintenance is performed on unit 2, considering an age control limit. The objective is to find the optimal control limits and minimize the long-run expected average cost per unit time. The proposed algorithm is applied to a numerical example to compare the effectiveness of the proposed policy (policy Ⅰ) with policy Ⅱ, which is similar to policy Ⅰ, but instead of general repair, replacement is performed. Results show that policy Ⅰ leads to lower average cost compared with policy Ⅱ. 

Keywords: condition-based maintenance, proportional hazards model, semi-Markov decision process, two-unit series systems

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Authors: Aysenur Ozturk, Aysen Yildiz, Hilal Yilmaz, Pinar Ergenekon, Melek Ozkan

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Water scarcity is one of the most important environmental problems of the World today. Desalination process is regarded as a promising solution to solve drinking water problem of the countries facing with water shortages. Reverse osmosis membranes are widely used for desalination processes. Nano structured biomimetic membrane production is one of the most challenging research subject for improving water filtration efficiency of the membranes and for reducing the cost of desalination processes. There are several researches in the literature on the development of novel biomimetic nanofiltration membranes by incorporation of aquaporin Z molecules. Aquaporins are cell membrane proteins that allow the passage of water molecules and reject all other dissolved solutes. They are present in cell membranes of most of the living organisms and provide high water passage capacity. In this study, GST (Glutathione S-transferas) tagged E. coli aquaporinZ and H. elongate aquaporin proteins, which were previously cloned and characterized, were purified from E. coli BL21 cells and used for fabrication of modified Polysulphone Membrane (PS). Aquaporins were incorporated on the surface of the membrane by using 1,2-dioleoyl-sn-glycero-3-phosphocholine (DOPC) phospolipids as carrier liposomes. Aquaporin containing proteoliposomes were immobilized on the surface of the membrane with m-phenylene-diamine (MPD) and trimesoyl chloride (TMC) rejection layer. Water flux, salt rejection and glucose rejection performances of the thin film composite membranes were tested by using Dead-End Reactor Cell. In this study, effect of proteoliposome concentration, and filtration pressure on water flux and salt rejection rate of membranes were investigated. Type of aquaporin used for membrane fabrication, flux and pressure applied for filtration were found to be important parameters affecting rejection rates. Results suggested that optimization of concentration of aquaporin carriers (proteoliposomes) on the membrane surface is necessary for fabrication of effective composite membranes used for different purposes.

Keywords: aquaporins, biomimmetic membranes, desalination, water treatment

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