Search results for: time series chaos
Commenced in January 2007
Frequency: Monthly
Edition: International
Paper Count: 19993

Search results for: time series chaos

19543 An AFM Approach of RBC Micro and Nanoscale Topographic Features During Storage

Authors: K. Santacruz-Gomez, E. Silva-Campa, S. Álvarez-García, V. Mata-Haro, D. Soto-Puebla, M. Pedroza-Montero

Abstract:

Blood gamma irradiation is the only available method to prevent transfusion-associated graft versus host disease (TA-GVHD). However, when blood is irradiated, determine blood shelf time is crucial. Non-irradiated blood has a self-time from 21 to 35 days when is preserved with an anticoagulated solution and stored at 4°C. During their storage, red blood cells (RBC) undergo a series of biochemical, biomechanical and molecular changes involving what is known as storage lesion (SL). SL include loss of structural integrity of RBC, a decrease of 2,3-diphosphatidylglyceric acid levels, and an increase of both ion potassium concentration and hemoglobin (Hb). On the other hand, Atomic force Microscopy (AFM) represents a versatile tool for a nano-scale high-resolution topographic analysis in biological systems. In order to evaluate SL in irradiated and non-irradiated blood, RBC topography and morphometric parameters were obtained from an AFM XE-BIO system. Cell viability was followed using flow cytometry. Our results showed that early markers as nanoscale roughness, allow us to evaluate blood quality since another perspective.

Keywords: AFM, blood γ-irradiation, roughness, storage lesion

Procedia PDF Downloads 533
19542 Influence of Atmospheric Pollutants on Child Respiratory Disease in Cartagena De Indias, Colombia

Authors: Jose A. Alvarez Aldegunde, Adrian Fernandez Sanchez, Matthew D. Menden, Bernardo Vila Rodriguez

Abstract:

Up to five statistical pre-processings have been carried out considering the pollutant records of the stations present in Cartagena de Indias, Colombia, also taking into account the childhood asthma incidence surveys conducted in hospitals in the city by the Health Ministry of Colombia for this study. These pre-processings have consisted of different techniques such as the determination of the quality of data collection, determination of the quality of the registration network, identification and debugging of errors in data collection, completion of missing data and purified data, as well as the improvement of the time scale of records. The characterization of the quality of the data has been conducted by means of density analysis of the pollutant registration stations using ArcGis Software and through mass balance techniques, making it possible to determine inconsistencies in the records relating the registration data between stations following the linear regression. The results obtained in this process have highlighted the positive quality in the pollutant registration process. Consequently, debugging of errors has allowed us to identify certain data as statistically non-significant in the incidence and series of contamination. This data, together with certain missing records in the series recorded by the measuring stations, have been completed by statistical imputation equations. Following the application of these prior processes, the basic series of incidence data for respiratory disease and pollutant records have allowed the characterization of the influence of pollutants on respiratory diseases such as, for example, childhood asthma. This characterization has been carried out using statistical correlation methods, including visual correlation, simple linear regression correlation and spectral analysis with PAST Software which identifies maximum periodicity cycles and minimums under the formula of the Lomb periodgram. In relation to part of the results obtained, up to eleven maximums and minimums considered contemporary between the incidence records and the particles have been identified taking into account the visual comparison. The spectral analyses that have been performed on the incidence and the PM2.5 have returned a series of similar maximum periods in both registers, which are at a maximum during a period of one year and another every 25 days (0.9 and 0.07 years). The bivariate analysis has managed to characterize the variable "Daily Vehicular Flow" in the ninth position of importance of a total of 55 variables. However, the statistical correlation has not obtained a favorable result, having obtained a low value of the R2 coefficient. The series of analyses conducted has demonstrated the importance of the influence of pollutants such as PM2.5 in the development of childhood asthma in Cartagena. The quantification of the influence of the variables has been able to determine that there is a 56% probability of dependence between PM2.5 and childhood respiratory asthma in Cartagena. Considering this justification, the study could be completed through the application of the BenMap Software, throwing a series of spatial results of interpolated values of the pollutant contamination records that exceeded the established legal limits (represented by homogeneous units up to the neighborhood level) and results of the impact on the exacerbation of pediatric asthma. As a final result, an economic estimate (in Colombian Pesos) of the monthly and individual savings derived from the percentage reduction of the influence of pollutants in relation to visits to the Hospital Emergency Room due to asthma exacerbation in pediatric patients has been granted.

Keywords: Asthma Incidence, BenMap, PM2.5, Statistical Analysis

Procedia PDF Downloads 116
19541 Between Order and Chaos: Politics and the Challenge of Peace in Mozambique

Authors: Edmilson Nhambe, Belisario Machaieie

Abstract:

Since the signing of the General Peace Agreement-GPA in 1992, Mozambique has seen successive setbacks in the search for effective peace, civil war, social conflicts, terrorism, and armed conflicts mix the reality of Mozambican democracy. The article seeks to understand the dynamics of conflict and peace in Mozambique. Specifically, it seeks to analyze the structural factors that lead to (violent) conflict situations and the factors that favor or promote peace. For this purpose, desk research was chosen to analyze studies of peace and conflict. This article develops the argument that the non-violation of the peace agreement, in particular the GPA in Rome, as it had a structuring effect on the Mozambican political system, no longer guarantees in itself the irreversibility of the pacification process. In fact, the country is currently stagnating in the category of a fragile peace process with the risk of slipping into a situation of war or open armed conflict.

Keywords: peace, conflict, GPA, instability

Procedia PDF Downloads 202
19540 Dynamic Response of Nano Spherical Shell Subjected to Termo-Mechanical Shock Using Nonlocal Elasticity Theory

Authors: J. Ranjbarn, A. Alibeigloo

Abstract:

In this paper, we present an analytical method for analysis of nano-scale spherical shell subjected to thermo-mechanical shocks based on nonlocal elasticity theory. Thermo-mechanical properties of nano shpere is assumed to be temperature dependent. Governing partial differential equation of motion is solved analytically by using Laplace transform for time domain and power series for spacial domain. The results in Laplace domain is transferred to time domain by employing the fast inverse Laplace transform (FLIT) method. Accuracy of present approach is assessed by comparing the the numerical results with the results of published work in literature. Furtheremore, the effects of non-local parameter and wall thickness on the dynamic characteristics of the nano-sphere are studied.

Keywords: nano-scale spherical shell, nonlocal elasticity theory, thermomechanical shock, dynamic response

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19539 Co-Seismic Surface Deformation Induced By 24 September 2019 Mirpur, Pakistan Earthquake Along an Active Blind Fault Estimated Using Sentinel-1 TOPS Interferometry

Authors: Muhammad Ali, Zeeshan Afzal, Giampaolo Ferraioli, Gilda Schirinzi, Muhammad Saleem Mughal, Vito Pascazio

Abstract:

On 24 September 2019, an earthquake with 5.6 Mw and 10 km depth stroke in Mirpur. The Mirpur area was highly affected by this earthquake, with the death of 34 people. This study aims to estimate the surface deformation associated with this earthquake. The interferometric synthetic aperture radar (InSAR) technique is applied to study earthquake induced surface motion. InSAR data using 9 Sentinel-1A SAR images from 11 August 2019 to 22 October 2019 is used to investigate the pre, co-, and post-seismic deformation trends. Time series investigation reveals that there was not such deformation in pre-seismic time period. In the co-seismic time period, strong displacement was observed, and in post-seismic results, small displacement is seen due to aftershocks. Our results show the existence of a previously unpublished blind fault in Mirpur and help to locate the fault line. Previous this fault line was triggered during the 2005 earthquake, and now it’s activated on 24 September 2019. Study area is already facing many problems due to natural hazards where additional surface deformations, particularly because of an earthquake with an activated blind fault, have increased its vulnerability.

Keywords: surface deformation, InSAR, earthquake, sentinel-1, mirpur

Procedia PDF Downloads 130
19538 Study of Climate Change Process on Hyrcanian Forests Using Dendroclimatology Indicators (Case Study of Guilan Province)

Authors: Farzad Shirzad, Bohlol Alijani, Mehry Akbary, Mohammad Saligheh

Abstract:

Climate change and global warming are very important issues today. The process of climate change, especially changes in temperature and precipitation, is the most important issue in the environmental sciences. Climate change means changing the averages in the long run. Iran is located in arid and semi-arid regions due to its proximity to the equator and its location in the subtropical high pressure zone. In this respect, the Hyrcanian forest is a green necklace between the Caspian Sea and the south of the Alborz mountain range. In the forty-third session of UNESCO, it was registered as the second natural heritage of Iran. Beech is one of the most important tree species and the most industrial species of Hyrcanian forests. In this research, using dendroclimatology, the width of the tree ring, and climatic data of temperature and precipitation from Shanderman meteorological station located in the study area, And non-parametric Mann-Kendall statistical method to investigate the trend of climate change over a time series of 202 years of growth ringsAnd Pearson statistical method was used to correlate the growth of "ring" growth rings of beech trees with climatic variables in the region. The results obtained from the time series of beech growth rings showed that the changes in beech growth rings had a downward and negative trend and were significant at the level of 5% and climate change occurred. The average minimum, medium, and maximum temperatures and evaporation in the growing season had an increasing trend, and the annual precipitation had a decreasing trend. Using Pearson method during fitting the correlation of diameter of growth rings with temperature, for the average in July, August, and September, the correlation is negative, and the average temperature in July, August, and September is negative, and for the average The average maximum temperature in February was correlation-positive and at the level of 95% was significant, and with precipitation, in June the correlation was at the level of 95% positive and significant.

Keywords: climate change, dendroclimatology, hyrcanian forest, beech

Procedia PDF Downloads 104
19537 Application of Fourier Series Based Learning Control on Mechatronic Systems

Authors: Sandra Baßler, Peter Dünow, Mathias Marquardt

Abstract:

A Fourier series based learning control (FSBLC) algorithm for tracking trajectories of mechanical systems with unknown nonlinearities is presented. Two processes are introduced to which the FSBLC with PD controller is applied. One is a simplified service robot capable of climbing stairs due to special wheels and the other is a propeller driven pendulum with nearly the same requirements on control. Additionally to the investigation of learning the feed forward for the desired trajectories some considerations on the implementation of such an algorithm on low cost microcontroller hardware are made. Simulations of the service robot as well as practical experiments on the pendulum show the capability of the used FSBLC algorithm to perform the task of improving control behavior for repetitive task of such mechanical systems.

Keywords: climbing stairs, FSBLC, ILC, service robot

Procedia PDF Downloads 315
19536 Sustainable Traditional Architecture and Urban Planning in Hot-Arid Climate of Iran

Authors: Farnaz Nazem

Abstract:

The aim of sustainable architecture is to design buildings with the least adverse effects on the environment and provide better conditions for people. What building forms make the best use of land? This question was addressed in the late 1960s at the center of Land Use and Built Form Studies in Cambridge. This led to a number of influential papers which had a great influence on the practice of urban design. This paper concentrates on the results of sustainability caused by climatic conditions in Iranian traditional architecture in hot-arid regions. As people spent a significant amount of their time in houses, it was very important to have such houses to fulfill their needs physically and spiritually as well as satisfying their cultural and religious aspects of their lifestyles. In a vast country such as Iran with different climatic zones, traditional builders have presented series of logical solutions for human comfort. These solutions have been able to response to the environmental problems for a long period of time. As a result, by considering the experience in traditional architecture of hot–arid climate in Iran, it is possible to attain sustainable architecture.

Keywords: hot-arid climate, Iran, sustainable traditional architecture, urban planning

Procedia PDF Downloads 473
19535 The Uniting Control Lyapunov Functions in Permanent Magnet Synchronous Linear Motor

Authors: Yi-Fei Yang, Nai-Bao He, Shao-Bang Xing

Abstract:

This study investigates the permanent magnet synchronous linear motor (PMSLM) chaotic motion under the specific physical parameters, the stability and the security of motor-driven system will be unavoidably influenced. Therefore, it is really necessary to investigate the methods of controlling or suppressing chaos in PMSLM. Firstly, we derive a chaotic model of PMSLM in the closed-loop system. Secondly, in order to realize the local asymptotic stabilization of the mechanical subsystem and the global stabilization of the motor-driven system including electrical subsystem, we propose an improved uniting control lyapunov functions by introducing backstepping approach. Finally, an illustrated example is also given to show the electiveness of the obtained results.

Keywords: linear motor, lyapunov functions, chao control, hybrid controller

Procedia PDF Downloads 340
19534 Prime Graphs of Polynomials and Power Series Over Non-Commutative Rings

Authors: Walaa Obaidallah Alqarafi, Wafaa Mohammed Fakieh, Alaa Abdallah Altassan

Abstract:

Algebraic graph theory is defined as a bridge between algebraic structures and graphs. It has several uses in many fields, including chemistry, physics, and computer science. The prime graph is a type of graph associated with a ring R, where the vertex set is the whole ring R, and two vertices x and y are adjacent if either xRy=0 or yRx=0. However, the investigation of the prime graph over rings remains relatively limited. The behavior of this graph in extended rings, like R[x] and R[[x]], where R is a non-commutative ring, deserves more attention because of the wider applicability in algebra and other mathematical fields. To study the prime graphs over polynomials and power series rings, we used a combination of ring-theoretic and graph-theoretic techniques. This paper focuses on two invariants: the diameter and the girth of these graphs. Furthermore, the work discusses how the graph structures change when passing from R to R[x] and R[[x]]. In our study, we found that the set of strong zero-divisors of ring R represents the set of vertices in prime graphs. Based on this discovery, we redefined the vertices of prime graphs using the definition of strong zero divisors. Additionally, our results show that although the prime graphs of R[x] and R[[x]] are comparable to the graph of R, they have different combinatorial characteristics since these extensions contain new strong zero-divisors. In particular, we find conditions in which the diameter and girth of the graphs, as they expand from R to R[x] and R[[x]], do not change or do change. In conclusion, this study shows how extending a non-commutative ring R to R[x] and R[[x]] affects the structure of their prime graphs, particularly in terms of diameter and girth. These findings enhance the understanding of the relationship between ring extensions and graph properties.

Keywords: prime graph, diameter, girth, polynomial ring, power series ring

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19533 Increases in Serum Erythropoietin Hormone in Recreational Breath-Hold Divers Following a Series of Repeated Apnoeas: Apnoea beyond Freediving

Authors: Antonis Elia, Theo Loizou, Gladys Onambele-Pearson, Matthew Barlow, Georgina Stebbings

Abstract:

Hypoxic conditions have been reported to enhance red blood cell production in both acclimatised low-landers and altitude adapted populations. This process is mediated by the erythropoietin hormone, which is released predominantly by the hypoxic kidney. A higher haemoglobin concentration was previously reported in elite breath-hold divers when compared to elite-skiers and untrained individuals. Therefore, the present study aimed to investigate whether apnoea induced hypoxia could induce a significant increase in serum erythropoietin concentration in recreational breath-hold divers which would provide an explanation to the higher haemoglobin levels observed in elite breath-hold divers. Identifying whether apnoea induced hypoxia induces a significant increase in serum erythropoietin might suggest that apnoea can be used as an alternative acclimatisation method to high altitude exposure. Seven healthy, recreational male breath-hold divers performed two sets of five 180 second breath-holds with a ten-minute supine rest between each set and a two-minute seated rest between each apnoea. During each breath-hold, participant’s heart rate and peripheral oxygen saturation levels were recorded every subsequent 10 seconds until the end of the 180 second breath-hold. After each 180 second breath-hold a capillary blood sample was collected from the finger to identify circulating haemoglobin levels. Following completion of the apnoeic protocol, three blood samples were collected at 30, 90 and 180 minutes to measure circulating erythropoietin levels. A significant interaction between erythropoietin and time was observed (F(3,18)= 4.72, p < 0.001), with significant increases in erythropoietin evident at 30 (t(6)= -5.035, p < 0.0590 (t(6)= -6.162, p < 0.05) and 180 (t(6)= - 7.232, p < 0.001) minutes post the last apnoea when compared to baseline. Corresponding average increases when compared to baseline were 16% at 30, 23% at 90 and 40% at 180 minutes post the last apnoea. A significant interaction between haemoglobin and time was observed (F(78,84)= 20.814, p < 0.001), with significant increases in haemoglobin evident at the fifth (t(29)= -1.124, p < 0.001), ninth (t(29)= -1.357, p < 0.001) and tenth (t(29)= -1.211, p < 0.05) apnoeas when compared to baseline. A significant interaction between peripheral oxygen saturation and time was observed (F(10,60)= 408.23, p < 0.001). The present study demonstrates that a series of ten 180 second breath-holds is sufficient to induce a significant increase in the circulating erythropoietin concentration of recreational breath hold divers. These observations may suggest that apnoea induced hypoxia may be used as an alternative acclimatisation method to high altitude exposure.

Keywords: apnoea, breath-holding, diving reflex, erythropoietin, haemoglobin

Procedia PDF Downloads 180
19532 A New Floating Point Implementation of Base 2 Logarithm

Authors: Ahmed M. Mansour, Ali M. El-Sawy, Ahmed T. Sayed

Abstract:

Logarithms reduce products to sums and powers to products; they play an important role in signal processing, communication and information theory. They are primarily used for hardware calculations, handling multiplications, divisions, powers, and roots effectively. There are three commonly used bases for logarithms; the logarithm with base-10 is called the common logarithm, the natural logarithm with base-e and the binary logarithm with base-2. This paper demonstrates different methods of calculation for log2 showing the complexity of each and finds out the most accurate and efficient besides giving in- sights to their hardware design. We present a new method called Floor Shift for fast calculation of log2, and then we combine this algorithm with Taylor series to improve the accuracy of the output, we illustrate that by using two examples. We finally compare the algorithms and conclude with our remarks.

Keywords: logarithms, log2, floor, iterative, CORDIC, Taylor series

Procedia PDF Downloads 535
19531 Kosodum Tribal Dance Series, Series 1 Dhemsa and Rela: An Example of an Exceptional Inter-Organizational Cooperation for the Preservation of Tribal Dance Form

Authors: Vidya Meshram, Shrinivas Surpam, Akshay Kokode, Laxman Shedmake, Ramesh Parchake

Abstract:

Tribal dance form is an integral part of the tribal culture as they represent the traditional culture of the tribal community. This article provide the reasons for the need to preserve the tribal dance form of Indian tribal people as a part of the cultural heritage. This article describe our experience of co-ordination of three organization to conduct a dance performance of Gond Tribe artists in the Mumbai City. This is the part of the promotion of tribal artist at big platform, although the preservation and awareness of tribal dance form in the metro cities. This is an example of an exceptional Inter-Organizational Cooperation between Kosodum Welfare Private Limited, GondwanaJangomDhemsaRelaNrutya Dal &GondwanaMitraMandal, Mumbai, for the preservation of tribal dance form.

Keywords: tribal, art, culture, preservation

Procedia PDF Downloads 173
19530 Mathematical Based Forecasting of Heart Attack

Authors: Razieh Khalafi

Abstract:

Myocardial infarction (MI) or acute myocardial infarction (AMI), commonly known as a heart attack, occurs when blood flow stops to part of the heart causing damage to the heart muscle. An ECG can often show evidence of a previous heart attack or one that's in progress. The patterns on the ECG may indicate which part of your heart has been damaged, as well as the extent of the damage. In chaos theory, the correlation dimension is a measure of the dimensionality of the space occupied by a set of random points, often referred to as a type of fractal dimension. In this research by considering ECG signal as a random walk we work on forecasting the oncoming heart attack by analyzing the ECG signals using the correlation dimension. In order to test the model a set of ECG signals for patients before and after heart attack was used and the strength of model for forecasting the behavior of these signals were checked. Results shows this methodology can forecast the ECG and accordingly heart attack with high accuracy.

Keywords: heart attack, ECG, random walk, correlation dimension, forecasting

Procedia PDF Downloads 543
19529 Impact of Civil Engineering and Economic Growth in the Sustainability of the Environment: Case of Albania

Authors: Rigers Dodaj

Abstract:

Nowadays, the environment is a critical goal for civil engineers, human activity, construction projects, economic growth, and whole national development. Regarding the development of Albania's economy, people's living standards are increasing, and the requirements for the living environment are also increasing. Under these circumstances, environmental protection and sustainability this is the critical issue. The rising industrialization, urbanization, and energy demand affect the environment by emission of carbon dioxide gas (CO2), a significant parameter known to impact air pollution directly. Consequently, many governments and international organizations conducted policies and regulations to address environmental degradation in the pursuit of economic development, for instance in Albania, the CO2 emission calculated in metric tons per capita has increased by 23% in the last 20 years. This paper analyzes the importance of civil engineering and economic growth in the sustainability of the environment focusing on CO2 emission. The analyzed data are time series 2001 - 2020 (with annual frequency), based on official publications of the World Bank. The statistical approach with vector error correction model and time series forecasting model are used to perform the parameter’s estimations and long-run equilibrium. The research in this paper adds a new perspective to the evaluation of a sustainable environment in the context of carbon emission reduction. Also, it provides reference and technical support for the government toward green and sustainable environmental policies. In the context of low-carbon development, effectively improving carbon emission efficiency is an inevitable requirement for achieving sustainable economic and environmental protection. Also, the study reveals that civil engineering development projects impact greatly the environment in the long run, especially in areas of flooding, noise pollution, water pollution, erosion, ecological disorder, natural hazards, etc. The potential for reducing industrial carbon emissions in recent years indicates that reduction is becoming more difficult, it needs another economic growth policy and more civil engineering development, by improving the level of industrialization and promoting technological innovation in industrial low-carbonization.

Keywords: CO₂ emission, civil engineering, economic growth, environmental sustainability

Procedia PDF Downloads 86
19528 A Hazard Rate Function for the Time of Ruin

Authors: Sule Sahin, Basak Bulut Karageyik

Abstract:

This paper introduces a hazard rate function for the time of ruin to calculate the conditional probability of ruin for very small intervals. We call this function the force of ruin (FoR). We obtain the expected time of ruin and conditional expected time of ruin from the exact finite time ruin probability with exponential claim amounts. Then we introduce the FoR which gives the conditional probability of ruin and the condition is that ruin has not occurred at time t. We analyse the behavior of the FoR function for different initial surpluses over a specific time interval. We also obtain FoR under the excess of loss reinsurance arrangement and examine the effect of reinsurance on the FoR.

Keywords: conditional time of ruin, finite time ruin probability, force of ruin, reinsurance

Procedia PDF Downloads 407
19527 Risk Assessments of Longest Dry Spells Phenomenon in Northern Tunisia

Authors: Majid Mathlouthi, Fethi Lebdi

Abstract:

Throughout the world, the extent and magnitude of droughts have economic, social and environmental consequences. Today climate change has become more and more felt; most likely they increase the frequency and duration of droughts. An analysis by event of dry event, from series of observations of the daily rainfall is carried out. A daily precipitation threshold value has been set. A catchment localized in Northern Tunisia where the average rainfall is about 600 mm has been studied. Rainfall events are defined as an uninterrupted series of rainfall days understanding at least a day having received a precipitation superior or equal to a fixed threshold. The dry events are constituted of a series of dry days framed by two successive rainfall events. A rainfall event is a vector of coordinates the duration, the rainfall depth per event and the duration of the dry event. The depth and duration are found to be correlated. So we use conditional probabilities to analyse the depth per event. The negative binomial distribution fits well the dry event. The duration of the rainfall event follows a geometric distribution. The length of the climatically cycle adjusts to the Incomplete Gamma. Results of this analysis was used to study of the effects of climate change on water resources and crops and to calibrate precipitation models with little rainfall records. In response to long droughts in the basin, the drought management system is based on three phases during each of the three phases; different measurements are applied and executed. The first is before drought, preparedness and early warning; the second is drought management, mitigation in the event of drought; and the last subsequent drought, when the drought is over.

Keywords: dry spell, precipitation threshold, climate vulnerability, adaptation measures

Procedia PDF Downloads 85
19526 Democrat Support to Antiterorrism of USA from Hollywood: Homeland Series

Authors: Selman Selim Akyüz, Mete Kazaz

Abstract:

Since The First Gulf War, USA, “Leader of The Free World” has been in trouble with terror. The USA created a complexity in The Middle East and paid the price with terrorist attacks in homeland. USA has made serious mistakes in terms of antiterrorism and fight against its supporters. Democrats have repaired damages caused by the Republican Party's management. Old methods about antiterrorism have been slowly abandoned. Hollywood, too, has played an important part in this war. Sometimes, Hollywood became an unquestioned patriot, sometimes it cried for the death of American Soldiers far away. In this study, messages in The Homeland, broadcast in the USA and a lot of countries around the world, are analyzed in terms of Washington’s foreign policy and position of the CIA in the fight against antiterrorism. The series reflect an orientalist viewpoint and has been criticized for offensive policy against the government. Homeland wanted to offer a perspective for the USA to be the “Leader of The Free World” again but with a liberal-democrat approach, dialogue and rational intelligence methods.

Keywords: antiterrorism, CIA, homeland, USA

Procedia PDF Downloads 362
19525 PM10 Prediction and Forecasting Using CART: A Case Study for Pleven, Bulgaria

Authors: Snezhana G. Gocheva-Ilieva, Maya P. Stoimenova

Abstract:

Ambient air pollution with fine particulate matter (PM10) is a systematic permanent problem in many countries around the world. The accumulation of a large number of measurements of both the PM10 concentrations and the accompanying atmospheric factors allow for their statistical modeling to detect dependencies and forecast future pollution. This study applies the classification and regression trees (CART) method for building and analyzing PM10 models. In the empirical study, average daily air data for the city of Pleven, Bulgaria for a period of 5 years are used. Predictors in the models are seven meteorological variables, time variables, as well as lagged PM10 variables and some lagged meteorological variables, delayed by 1 or 2 days with respect to the initial time series, respectively. The degree of influence of the predictors in the models is determined. The selected best CART models are used to forecast future PM10 concentrations for two days ahead after the last date in the modeling procedure and show very accurate results.

Keywords: cross-validation, decision tree, lagged variables, short-term forecasting

Procedia PDF Downloads 196
19524 Generalized Synchronization in Systems with a Complex Topology of Attractor

Authors: Olga I. Moskalenko, Vladislav A. Khanadeev, Anastasya D. Koloskova, Alexey A. Koronovskii, Anatoly A. Pivovarov

Abstract:

Generalized synchronization is one of the most intricate phenomena in nonlinear science. It can be observed both in systems with a unidirectional and mutual type of coupling including the complex networks. Such a phenomenon has a number of practical applications, for example, for the secure information transmission through the communication channel with a high level of noise. Known methods for the secure information transmission needs in the increase of the privacy of data transmission that arises a question about the observation of such phenomenon in systems with a complex topology of chaotic attractor possessing two or more positive Lyapunov exponents. The present report is devoted to the study of such phenomenon in two unidirectionally and mutually coupled dynamical systems being in chaotic (with one positive Lyapunov exponent) and hyperchaotic (with two or more positive Lyapunov exponents) regimes, respectively. As the systems under study, we have used two mutually coupled modified Lorenz oscillators and two unidirectionally coupled time-delayed generators. We have shown that in both cases the generalized synchronization regime can be detected by means of the calculation of Lyapunov exponents and phase tube approach whereas due to the complex topology of attractor the nearest neighbor method is misleading. Moreover, the auxiliary system approaches being the standard method for the synchronous regime observation, for the mutual type of coupling results in incorrect results. To calculate the Lyapunov exponents in time-delayed systems we have proposed an approach based on the modification of Gram-Schmidt orthogonalization procedure in the context of the time-delayed system. We have studied in detail the mechanisms resulting in the generalized synchronization regime onset paying a great attention to the field where one positive Lyapunov exponent has already been become negative whereas the second one is a positive yet. We have found the intermittency here and studied its characteristics. To detect the laminar phase lengths the method based on a calculation of local Lyapunov exponents has been proposed. The efficiency of the method has been verified using the example of two unidirectionally coupled Rössler systems being in the band chaos regime. We have revealed the main characteristics of intermittency, i.e. the distribution of the laminar phase lengths and dependence of the mean length of the laminar phases on the criticality parameter, for all systems studied in the report. This work has been supported by the Russian President's Council grant for the state support of young Russian scientists (project MK-531.2018.2).

Keywords: complex topology of attractor, generalized synchronization, hyperchaos, Lyapunov exponents

Procedia PDF Downloads 278
19523 A New Mathematical Method for Heart Attack Forecasting

Authors: Razi Khalafi

Abstract:

Myocardial Infarction (MI) or acute Myocardial Infarction (AMI), commonly known as a heart attack, occurs when blood flow stops to part of the heart causing damage to the heart muscle. An ECG can often show evidence of a previous heart attack or one that's in progress. The patterns on the ECG may indicate which part of your heart has been damaged, as well as the extent of the damage. In chaos theory, the correlation dimension is a measure of the dimensionality of the space occupied by a set of random points, often referred to as a type of fractal dimension. In this research by considering ECG signal as a random walk we work on forecasting the oncoming heart attack by analysing the ECG signals using the correlation dimension. In order to test the model a set of ECG signals for patients before and after heart attack was used and the strength of model for forecasting the behaviour of these signals were checked. Results show this methodology can forecast the ECG and accordingly heart attack with high accuracy.

Keywords: heart attack, ECG, random walk, correlation dimension, forecasting

Procedia PDF Downloads 507
19522 Periodicity Analysis of Long-Term Waterquality Data Series of the Hungarian Section of the River Tisza Using Morlet Wavelet Spectrum Estimation

Authors: Péter Tanos, József Kovács, Angéla Anda, Gábor Várbíró, Sándor Molnár, István Gábor Hatvani

Abstract:

The River Tisza is the second largest river in Central Europe. In this study, Morlet wavelet spectrum (periodicity) analysis was used with chemical, biological and physical water quality data for the Hungarian section of the River Tisza. In the research 15, water quality parameters measured at 14 sampling sites in the River Tisza and 4 sampling sites in the main artificial changes were assessed for the time period 1993 - 2005. Results show that annual periodicity was not always to be found in the water quality parameters, at least at certain sampling sites. Periodicity was found to vary over space and time, but in general, an increase was observed in the company of higher trophic states of the river heading downstream.

Keywords: annual periodicity water quality, spatiotemporal variability of periodic behavior, Morlet wavelet spectrum analysis, River Tisza

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19521 Parametric Evaluation for the Optimization of Gastric Emptying Protocols Used in Health Care Institutions

Authors: Yakubu Adamu

Abstract:

The aim of this research was to assess the factors contributing to the need for optimisation of the gastric emptying protocols in nuclear medicine and molecular imaging (SNMMI) procedures. The objective is to suggest whether optimisation is possible and provide supporting evidence for the current imaging protocols of gastric emptying examination used in nuclear medicine. The research involved the use of some selected patients with 30 dynamic series for the image processing using ImageJ, and by so doing, the calculated half-time, retention fraction to the 60 x1 minute, 5 minute and 10-minute protocol, and other sampling intervals were obtained. Results from the study IDs for the gastric emptying clearance half-time were classified into normal, abnormal fast, and abnormal slow categories. In the normal category, which represents 50% of the total gastric emptying image IDs processed, their clearance half-time was within the range of 49.5 to 86.6 minutes of the mean counts. Also, under the abnormal fast category, their clearance half-time fell between 21 to 43.3 minutes of the mean counts, representing 30% of the total gastric emptying image IDs processed, and the abnormal slow category had clearance half-time within the range of 138.6 to 138.6 minutes of the mean counts, representing 20%. The results indicated that the calculated retention fraction values from the 1, 5, and 10-minute sampling curves and the measured values of gastric emptying retention fraction from sampling curves of the study IDs had a normal retention fraction of <60% and decreased exponentially with an increase in time and it was evident with low percentages of retention fraction ratios of < 10% after the 4 hours. Thus, this study does not change categories suggesting that these values could feasibly be used instead of having to acquire actual images. Findings from the study suggest that the current gastric emptying protocol can be optimized by acquiring fewer images. The study recommended that the gastric emptying studies should be performed with imaging at a minimum of 0, 1, 2, and 4 hours after meal ingestion.

Keywords: gastric emptying, retention fraction, clearance halftime, optimisation, protocol

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19520 The Realization of a System’s State Space Based on Markov Parameters by Using Flexible Neural Networks

Authors: Ali Isapour, Ramin Nateghi

Abstract:

— Markov parameters are unique parameters of the system and remain unchanged under similarity transformations. Markov parameters from a power series that is convergent only if the system matrix’s eigenvalues are inside the unity circle. Therefore, Markov parameters of a stable discrete-time system are convergent. In this study, we aim to realize the system based on Markov parameters by using Artificial Neural Networks (ANN), and this end, we use Flexible Neural Networks. Realization means determining the elements of matrices A, B, C, and D.

Keywords: Markov parameters, realization, activation function, flexible neural network

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19519 Microbial Fuel Cells: Performance and Applications

Authors: Andrea Pietrelli, Vincenzo Ferrara, Bruno Allard, Francois Buret, Irene Bavasso, Nicola Lovecchio, Francesca Costantini, Firas Khaled

Abstract:

This paper aims to show some applications of microbial fuel cells (MFCs), an energy harvesting technique, as clean power source to supply low power device for application like wireless sensor network (WSN) for environmental monitoring. Furthermore, MFC can be used directly as biosensor to analyse parameters like pH and temperature or arranged in form of cluster devices in order to use as small power plant. An MFC is a bioreactor that converts energy stored in chemical bonds of organic matter into electrical energy, through a series of reactions catalysed by microorganisms. We have developed a lab-scale terrestrial microbial fuel cell (TMFC), based on soil that acts as source of bacteria and flow of nutrient and a lab-scale waste water microbial fuel cell (WWMFC), where waste water acts as flow of nutrient and bacteria. We performed large series of tests to exploit the capability as biosensor. The pH value has strong influence on the open circuit voltage (OCV) delivered from TMFCs. We analyzed three condition: test A and B were filled with same soil but changing pH from 6 to 6.63, test C was prepared using a different soil with a pH value of 6.3. Experimental results clearly show how with higher pH value a higher OCV was produced; indeed reactors are influenced by different values of pH which increases the voltage in case of a higher pH value until the best pH value of 7 is achieved. The influence of pH on OCV of lab-scales WWMFC was analyzed at pH value of 6.5, 7, 7.2, 7.5 and 8. WWMFCs are influenced from temperature more than TMFCs. We tested the power performance of WWMFCs considering four imposed values of ambient temperature. Results show how power performance increase proportionally with higher temperature values, doubling the output power from 20° to 40°. The best value of power produced from our lab-scale TMFC was equal to 310 μW using peaty soil, at 1KΩ, corresponding to a current of 0.5 mA. A TMFC can supply proper energy to low power devices of a WSN by means of the design of three stages scheme of an energy management system, which adapts voltage level of TMFC to those required by a WSN node, as 3.3V. Using a commercial DC/DC boost converter, that needs an input voltage of 700 mV, the current source of 0.5 mA, charges a capacitor of 6.8 mF until it will have accumulated an amount of charge equal to 700 mV in a time of 10 s. The output stage includes an output switch that close the circuit after a time of 10s + 1.5ms because the converter can boost the voltage from 0.7V to 3.3V in 1.5 ms. Furthermore, we tested in form of clusters connected in series up to 20 WWMFCs, we have obtained a high voltage value as output, around 10V, but low current value. MFC can be considered a suitable clean energy source to be used to supply low power devices as a WSN node or to be used directly as biosensor.

Keywords: energy harvesting, low power electronics, microbial fuel cell, terrestrial microbial fuel cell, waste-water microbial fuel cell, wireless sensor network

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19518 A General Variable Neighborhood Search Algorithm to Minimize Makespan of the Distributed Permutation Flowshop Scheduling Problem

Authors: G. M. Komaki, S. Mobin, E. Teymourian, S. Sheikh

Abstract:

This paper addresses minimizing the makespan of the distributed permutation flow shop scheduling problem. In this problem, there are several parallel identical factories or flowshops each with series of similar machines. Each job should be allocated to one of the factories and all of the operations of the jobs should be performed in the allocated factory. This problem has recently gained attention and due to NP-Hard nature of the problem, metaheuristic algorithms have been proposed to tackle it. Majority of the proposed algorithms require large computational time which is the main drawback. In this study, a general variable neighborhood search algorithm (GVNS) is proposed where several time-saving schemes have been incorporated into it. Also, the GVNS uses the sophisticated method to change the shaking procedure or perturbation depending on the progress of the incumbent solution to prevent stagnation of the search. The performance of the proposed algorithm is compared to the state-of-the-art algorithms based on standard benchmark instances.

Keywords: distributed permutation flow shop, scheduling, makespan, general variable neighborhood search algorithm

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19517 An Alternative Concept of Green Screen Keying

Authors: Jin Zhi

Abstract:

This study focuses on a green screen keying method developed especially for film visual effects. There are a series of ways of using existing tools for creating mattes from green or blue screen plates. However, it is still a time-consuming process, and the results vary especially when it comes to retaining tiny details, such as hair and fur. This paper introduces an alternative concept and method for retaining edge details of characters on a green screen plate, also, a number of connected mathematical equations are explored. At the end of this study, a simplified process of applying this method in real productions is also introduced.

Keywords: green screen, visual effects, compositing, matte

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19516 Establishing Multi-Leveled Computability as a Living-System Evolutionary Context

Authors: Ron Cottam, Nils Langloh, Willy Ranson, Roger Vounckx

Abstract:

We start by formally describing the requirements for environmental-reaction survival computation in a natural temporally-demanding medium, and develop this into a more general model of the evolutionary context as a computational machine. The effect of this development is to replace deterministic logic by a modified form which exhibits a continuous range of dimensional fractal diffuseness between the isolation of perfectly ordered localization and the extended communication associated with nonlocality as represented by pure causal chaos. We investigate the appearance of life and consciousness in the derived general model, and propose a representation of Nature within which all localizations have the character of quasi-quantal entities. We compare our conclusions with Heisenberg’s uncertainty principle and nonlocal teleportation, and maintain that computability is the principal influence on evolution in the model we propose.

Keywords: computability, evolution, life, localization, modeling, nonlocality

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19515 A Heteroskedasticity Robust Test for Contemporaneous Correlation in Dynamic Panel Data Models

Authors: Andreea Halunga, Chris D. Orme, Takashi Yamagata

Abstract:

This paper proposes a heteroskedasticity-robust Breusch-Pagan test of the null hypothesis of zero cross-section (or contemporaneous) correlation in linear panel-data models, without necessarily assuming independence of the cross-sections. The procedure allows for either fixed, strictly exogenous and/or lagged dependent regressor variables, as well as quite general forms of both non-normality and heteroskedasticity in the error distribution. The asymptotic validity of the test procedure is predicated on the number of time series observations, T, being large relative to the number of cross-section units, N, in that: (i) either N is fixed as T→∞; or, (ii) N²/T→0, as both T and N diverge, jointly, to infinity. Given this, it is not expected that asymptotic theory would provide an adequate guide to finite sample performance when T/N is "small". Because of this, we also propose and establish asymptotic validity of, a number of wild bootstrap schemes designed to provide improved inference when T/N is small. Across a variety of experimental designs, a Monte Carlo study suggests that the predictions from asymptotic theory do, in fact, provide a good guide to the finite sample behaviour of the test when T is large relative to N. However, when T and N are of similar orders of magnitude, discrepancies between the nominal and empirical significance levels occur as predicted by the first-order asymptotic analysis. On the other hand, for all the experimental designs, the proposed wild bootstrap approximations do improve agreement between nominal and empirical significance levels, when T/N is small, with a recursive-design wild bootstrap scheme performing best, in general, and providing quite close agreement between the nominal and empirical significance levels of the test even when T and N are of similar size. Moreover, in comparison with the wild bootstrap "version" of the original Breusch-Pagan test our experiments indicate that the corresponding version of the heteroskedasticity-robust Breusch-Pagan test appears reliable. As an illustration, the proposed tests are applied to a dynamic growth model for a panel of 20 OECD countries.

Keywords: cross-section correlation, time-series heteroskedasticity, dynamic panel data, heteroskedasticity robust Breusch-Pagan test

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19514 Application of Blockchain Technology in Geological Field

Authors: Mengdi Zhang, Zhenji Gao, Ning Kang, Rongmei Liu

Abstract:

Management and application of geological big data is an important part of China's national big data strategy. With the implementation of a national big data strategy, geological big data management becomes more and more critical. At present, there are still a lot of technology barriers as well as cognition chaos in many aspects of geological big data management and application, such as data sharing, intellectual property protection, and application technology. Therefore, it’s a key task to make better use of new technologies for deeper delving and wider application of geological big data. In this paper, we briefly introduce the basic principle of blockchain technology at the beginning and then make an analysis of the application dilemma of geological data. Based on the current analysis, we bring forward some feasible patterns and scenarios for the blockchain application in geological big data and put forward serval suggestions for future work in geological big data management.

Keywords: blockchain, intellectual property protection, geological data, big data management

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