Search results for: selection of risk measures

Authors: Atousa Khodadadyan, Gabe Mythen, Hirbod Assa, Beverley Bishop

Abstract:

Risk assessment and the knowledge provided through this process is a crucial part of any decision-making process in the management of risks and uncertainties. Failure in assessment of risks can cause inadequacy in the entire process of risk management, which in turn can lead to failure in achieving organisational objectives as well as having significant damaging consequences on populations affected by the potential risks being assessed. The choice of tools and techniques in risk assessment can influence the degree and scope of decision-making and subsequently the risk response strategy. There are various available qualitative and quantitative tools and techniques that are deployed within the broad process of risk assessment. The sheer diversity of tools and techniques available to practitioners makes it difficult for organisations to consistently employ the most appropriate methods. This tools and techniques adaptation is rendered more difficult in public risk regulation organisations due to the sensitive and complex nature of their activities. This is particularly the case in areas relating to the environment, food, and human health and safety, when organisational goals are tied up with societal, political and individuals’ goals at national and international levels. Hence, recognising, analysing and evaluating different decision support tools and techniques employed in assessing risks in public risk management organisations was considered. This research is part of a mixed method study which aimed to examine the perception of risk assessment and the extent to which organisations practise risk assessment’ tools and techniques. The study adopted a semi-structured questionnaire with qualitative and quantitative data analysis to include a range of public risk regulation organisations from the UK, Germany, France, Belgium and the Netherlands. The results indicated the public risk management organisations mainly use diverse tools and techniques in the risk assessment process. The primary hazard analysis; brainstorming; hazard analysis and critical control points were described as the most practiced risk identification techniques. Within qualitative and quantitative risk analysis, the participants named the expert judgement, risk probability and impact assessment, sensitivity analysis and data gathering and representation as the most practised techniques.

Keywords: decision-making, public risk management organisations, risk assessment, tools and techniques

Procedia PDF Downloads 282

Authors: Ali E. Abbas

Abstract:

This paper highlights some of the normative issues that might result by setting independent thresholds in risk analyses and particularly with safety regions. A second objective is to explain how such regions can be specified appropriately in a meaningful way. We start with a review of the importance of setting deterministic trade-offs among target requirements. We then show how to determine safety regions for risk analysis appropriately using utility functions.

Keywords: decision analysis, thresholds, risk, reliability

Procedia PDF Downloads 312

Authors: Mara Balestrieri, Clara Pusceddu

Abstract:

Issues relating to the destructive phenomena that can damage people and goods have returned to the centre of debate in Italy with the increase in catastrophic episodes in recent years in a country which is highly vulnerable to hydrological risk. Environmental factors and geological and geomorphological territorial characteristics play an important role in determining the level of vulnerability and the natural tendency to risk. However, a territory has also been subjected to the requirements of and transformations of society, and this brings other relevant factors. The reasons for the increase in destructive phenomena are often to be found in the territorial development models adopted. Stewardship of the landscape and management of risk are related issues. This study aims to summarize the most relevant elements about this connection and at the same time to clarify the role of environmental risk assessment as a tool to aid in the sustainable management of landscape. How planners relate to this problem and which aspects should be monitored in order to prepare responsible and useful interventions?

Keywords: assessment, landscape, risk, planning

Procedia PDF Downloads 463

Authors: Maryam Vaezjalali, Foad Davoodbeglou, Mehrnaz Mesdaghi, Hossein Goudarzi, Fariba Shojaei, Hourieh Aram

Abstract:

Introduction: Hepatitis B virus (HBV) infection causes chronic infection in human population, with high mortality. Some people are more susceptible to this infection. One of the high risk communities is mentally retarded children, who are institutionalized. Special conditions in these centers predispose children for HBV infection and transmission to healthy people. In this study our objective was to determine the prevalence of HBV infection among institutionalized mentally retarded children and study its associated risk factors. Materials and methods: In this study, 250 mentally retarded children (younger than 14 years old) were included. They were living in 5 nursing institutions, located in different parts of Tehran. HBsAg was measured in the sera of these patients by ELISA method. Results: Among 250 children, 20 children (8%) were HBsAg positive. HBV infection in girls was more than boys (11% to 5.6%). Among the types of mental retardation, children with cerebral palsy had the highest positive result for HBsAg. The most HBV infection (28.5%) was seen in children with longest duration of being institutionalized (10 to 11 years). Vaccinated children were more HBsAg positive (8.7%) than non-vaccinated children (5.3%). However, no significant relationship was observed between any of these factors and HBsAg positivity. Conclusion: Despite improvement of people’s health condition and implementation of HBV vaccination, the prevalence of HBV infection is high in institutionalized mentally retarded children, which highlights the need for active measures to reduce this infection among this high risk population.

Keywords: hepatitis B virus, HBV vaccine, intellectually disabled children, mentally retarded

Procedia PDF Downloads 481

Authors: Pantaleon Lutta, Mohamed Sedky, Mohamed Hassan

Abstract:

The inability of organizations to put in place management control measures for Internet of Things (IoT) complexities persists to be a risk concern. Policy makers have been left to scamper in finding measures to combat these security and privacy concerns. IoT forensics is a cumbersome process as there is no standardization of the IoT products, no or limited historical data are stored on the devices. This paper highlights why IoT forensics is a unique adventure and brought out the legal challenges encountered in the investigation process. A quadrant model is presented to study the conflicting aspects in IoT forensics. The model analyses the effectiveness of forensic investigation process versus the admissibility of the evidence integrity; taking into account the user privacy and the providers’ compliance with the laws and regulations. Our analysis concludes that a semi-automated forensic process using machine learning, could eliminate the human factor from the profiling and surveillance processes, and hence resolves the issues of data protection (privacy and confidentiality).

Keywords: cloud forensics, data protection Laws, GDPR, IoT forensics, machine Learning

Procedia PDF Downloads 150

Authors: Ladda Thiamwong, Renata Komalasari

Abstract:

Falls are the leading cause of disability and hospitalization in low-income older adults. Fear of falling is present in 20% to 85 % of older adults and has been identified as an independent risk factor of fall risk, activity restriction, and loss of independence. About 12% of American older adults have subjective cognitive decline. Cognitive impairment is also an established factor of fall risk. However, it is unclear whether measures of fear of falling and subjective cognitive decline have the greatest association with fall risk in low-income older adults. The aim of this study was to evaluate the association between fear of falling, subjective cognitive decline-functional performance (SCD-FP), and fall risk using simple screening tools. In this cross-section study, we collected data from community-dwelling older adults 60 years or older in low-income settings in Central Florida, and 86 participants were included in the data analysis. Fear of falling was assessed by the Short Fall Efficacy Scale- International (Short FES-I) with seven items. Subjective cognitive decline-functional performance (SCD-FP) was assessed by a self-reported experience of worsening or more frequent confusion or memory loss in the past 12 months and its functional implications. Fall risk was evaluated by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC)'s Stay Independent checklist with 12 items. The majority of participants were female, and more than half of the participants were African American. More than half of the participants had a higher school degree or higher, and less than 20% had no financial problems. Less than 30% of the participants perceived their general health as very good- excellent. More than half of the participants lived alone, and less than 15% lived with a partner or spouse. About 60% of the participants had hypertension, 40% had diabetes, 16% had cancer, and 50% had arthritis. About 30% of the participants had difficulty walking up ten steps without resting, more than 40% felt unsteady when walking, and 30% had been advised to use a cane or walker to get around safely. Regression analysis showed that fall risk was associated with fear of falling ( = .524, p <.001) and subjective cognitive decline-functional performance ( = .465, p =.027). The structure coefficient showed that fear of falling (rs2 = .922) was a stronger predictor of fall risk than subjective cognitive decline-functional performance (rs2= .200). Fear of falling and subjective cognitive decline-functional performance are growing public health issues, and addressing those issues is a public priority. Proactive screening for fear of falling and subjective cognitive decline-functional performance is critical in fall prevention. A combination of all three self-reported tools (Short FES-I, SCD-FP, and CDC's Stay Independent checklist) takes less than 5 minutes to complete. Primary care providers or public health professionals should consider including these tools to screen fear of falling and subjective cognitive decline-functional performance as part of fall risk assessment, especially in low-income settings. Thus, encouraging older adults and healthcare professionals to discuss fear of falling, subjective cognitive decline, and fall risk during routine medical office visits.

Keywords: falls, fall risk, fear of falling, cognition, subjective cognitive decline, low-income, older adults, community, screening, nursing, primary care

Procedia PDF Downloads 74

Authors: R. A. Temah, L. A. Nkengla-Asi

Abstract:

Planning for future disasters sets the stage for a variety of activities that may trigger multiple recurring operations and expose the community to opportunities to minimize risks. Local communities are increasingly embracing the necessity for planning based on local risks, but are also significantly challenged to effectively plan and response to disasters. This research examines basic risk-based disaster planning model and compares it with advanced risk-based planning that introduces the identification and alignment of varieties of local capabilities within and out of the local community that can be pivotal to facilitate the management of local risks and cascading effects prior to a disaster. A critical review shows that the identification and alignment of capabilities can potentially enhance risk-based disaster planning. A tailored holistic approach to risk based disaster planning is pivotal to enhance collective action and a reduction in disaster collective cost.

Keywords: capabilities, disaster planning, hazards, local community, risk-based

Procedia PDF Downloads 206

Authors: S. Cowley, M. Lawrance, D. Bick, R. McCord

Abstract:

Technology that automates manual handling (musculoskeletal disorder or MSD) risk assessments is increasingly available to ergonomists, engineers, generalist health and safety practitioners alike. The risk assessment process is generally based on the use of wearable motion sensors that capture information about worker movements for real-time or for posthoc analysis. Traditionally, MSD risk assessment is undertaken with the assistance of a checklist such as that from the SafeWork Australia code of practice, the expert assessor observing the task and ideally engaging with the worker in a discussion about the detail. Automation enables the non-expert to complete assessments and does not always require the assessor to be there. This clearly has cost and time benefits for the practitioner but is it an improvement on the assessment by the human. Human risk assessments draw on the knowledge and expertise of the assessor but, like all risk assessments, are highly subjective. The complexity of the checklists and models used in the process can be off-putting and sometimes will lead to the assessment becoming the focus and the end rather than a means to an end; the focus on risk control is lost. Automated risk assessment handles the complexity of the assessment for the assessor and delivers a simple risk score that enables decision-making regarding risk control. Being machine-based, they are objective and will deliver the same each time they assess an identical task. However, the WHS professional needs to know that this emergent technology asks the right questions and delivers the right answers. Whether it improves the risk assessment process and results or simply distances the professional from the task and the worker. They need clarity as to whether automation of manual task risk analysis and reporting leads to risk control or to a focus on the worker. Critically, they need evidence as to whether automation in this area of hazard management leads to better risk control or just a bigger collection of assessments. Practitioner experienced determinants of this automated manual task risk analysis and reporting being a benefit or distraction will address an understanding of emergent risk assessment technology, its use and things to consider when making decisions about adopting and applying these technologies.

Keywords: automated, manual-handling, risk-assessment, machine-based

Procedia PDF Downloads 119

Authors: Jehad Al Dallal

Abstract:

Class cohesion is a key object-oriented software quality attribute that is used to evaluate the degree of relatedness of class attributes and methods. Researchers have proposed several class cohesion measures. However, the effect of considering the special methods (i.e., constructors, destructors, and access and delegation methods) in cohesion calculation is not thoroughly theoretically studied for most of them. In this paper, we address this issue for three popular connectivity-based class cohesion measures. For each of the considered measures we theoretically study the impact of including or excluding special methods on the values that are obtained by applying the measure. This study is based on analyzing the definitions and formulas that are proposed for the measures. The results show that including/excluding special methods has a considerable effect on the obtained cohesion values and that this effect varies from one measure to another. For each of the three connectivity-based measures, the proposed theoretical study recommended excluding the special methods in cohesion measurement.

Keywords: object-oriented class, software quality, class cohesion measure, class cohesion, special methods

Procedia PDF Downloads 297

Authors: Donatus Otuiheoma Ohajianya, Augusta Onyekachi Unamba

Abstract:

This study analyzed risk among poultry farm enterprises in Imo State of Nigeria. Specifically, it examined sources of risks, the major risks associated with poultry farm enterprise, and the risk-reducing strategies among the poultry farm enterprises in the study area. Primary data collected in 2015 with validated questionnaire from 120 proportionately and randomly selected poultry farm enterprises were used for the study. The data were analyzed with descriptive statistics and W-Statistic that was validated with Pearson Criterion (X2). The results showed that major risk sources affecting poultry farm enterprises were production, marketing, financial and political in that order. The results found a W-Statistic value of 0.789, which was verified by Pearson Criterion to obtain X2-Calculated value of 4.65 which is lower that X2-Critical value of 11.07 at 5% significant level. The risk-reducing strategies were found to be diversification, savings, co-operative marketing, borrowing, and insurance. It was recommended that government and donor agencies should make policies aimed at encouraging poultry farm enterprises adopt the highlighted risk-reducing strategies in risk management to improve their productivity and farm income.

Keywords: risk, measurement, management, poultry farm, Imo State

Procedia PDF Downloads 300

Authors: Bahareh Zare

Abstract:

The theory of the investment model of dating infidelity maintains that loyalty is an essential power within romantic relationships. Loyalty signifies both motivation and psychological attachment to maintain a relationship. This study examined the relationship between the Big Five Personality Factors (Extraversion, Neuroticism, Openness, Conscientiousness, and Agreeableness), probability of marital infidelity, and risk of divorce. The participants completed NEO-FFI, INFQ (infidelity questionnaire) and were interviewed by OHI (Oral History Interview). The results demonstrated that extraversion and agreeableness traits were significant predictors for the probability of infidelity and risk of divorce. In addition, conscientiousness predicted the probability of infidelity, while neuroticism predicted the risk of divorce.

Keywords: five factors personality, infidelity, risk of divorce, investment theory

Procedia PDF Downloads 93

Authors: V. Davaakhuu, D. Tserendagva, D. Amarsaikhan, T. Altanstetseg

Abstract:

In this study we aimed to detect main risk factors for diabetes in Mongolia and obtain data we used survey modified questionnaire. Survey data were obtained from 634 valid nurses (day work nurses-317, shift work nurses-317). Participants who were pregnant, less than 20 years old and no check for fasting glucose level were excluded from the survey in order to determine the risk factors of diabetes. Our study result shows the main risk factors of diabetes were physical inactivity, overweight and obesity, alcohol and tobacco use and lack of vegetable and fruit consumption. Peripheral blood glucose level was normal in subjects with BMI 26.28 ± 0.56, but 20 % of the subjects with normal blood glucose level were obese. Blood glucose level was higher in subjects with BMI 28.63 ± 2.32 and 36 % of them were obese. According to our study results, 3.62% of the surveyed population were identified having no diabetes risk factors, 52.3% were at risk, 28.8% were in higher risk for diabetes by the WHO criteria. In general, the prevalence of blood glucose were especially higher in shift work nurses.

Keywords: day work nurses, shift work nurses, BMI, WHR

Procedia PDF Downloads 593

Authors: Janneke K. Oostrom, Richard Ronay

Abstract:

The so called “red sneakers effect” refers to people’s inclination to infer status and competence from signals of nonconformity. In the current research, we explore an untested possible boundary condition to the red sneakers effect within the context of personnel selection. In two experimental studies (total N = 156), we examined how (non)conforming dress style interacts with the quality of a job applicant’s resume to determine hirability perceptions. We found that dress style indeed impacts hirability perceptions, but that the exact impact depends on the quality of the applicant’s resume. Results revealed that applicants with a low quality resume were punished for behaving in a nonconforming way, whereas applicants with a high quality resume appeared to have the leeway to dress as they please. Importantly, the observed interaction effect was mediated by perceptions of power. These findings suggest that nonconforming dress acts as a power-signaling mechanism in the context of personnel selection. However, the signaling effects of non-conforming dress style can backfire when accompanied by evidence that such posturing is not matched by cues of actual competence.

Keywords: clothing, hirability, nonconformity, personnel selection, power

Procedia PDF Downloads 178

Authors: Shirin Aghanajafizadeh

Abstract:

Nest site selection of Crested Lark was investigated in Boroyeh wildlife sanctuary of Harat during spring 2014. Habitat variables such as number of plant species, soil texture, distance to the nearest water resources, farms and roads were compared in the species presence plots with absence ones. Our analysis showed that the average number of Zygophyllum atriplicoidesand, Artemisia sieberi were higher while fine-textured soil percent cover (with very little and gravel) was lower in species presence plots than control plots. We resulted that the most affecting factor in the species nest site selection is the number of Z .atriplicoides and soil texture. Z. atriplicoides and A. sieberi can provide cover for nests and chickens against predators and environmental harsh events such as sunshine and wind. The stability of built nest forces the birds to select sites with not fine-textured soil. Some of the nests were detected in Alfalfa farms that can be related to its cover producing capability.

Keywords: habitat selection, Yazd Province, presence and absence plots, habitat variables

Procedia PDF Downloads 186

Authors: Tunjo Perič, Marin Fatović

Abstract:

In this paper a new methodology for vendor selection and supply quotas determination (VSSQD) is proposed. The problem of VSSQD is solved by the model that combines revised weighting method for determining the objective function coefficients, and a multiple objective linear programming (MOLP) method based on the cooperative game theory for VSSQD. The criteria used for VSSQD are: (1) purchase costs and (2) product quality supplied by individual vendors. The proposed methodology is tested on the example of flour purchase for a bakery with two decision makers.

Keywords: cooperative game theory, multiple objective linear programming, revised weighting method, vendor selection

Procedia PDF Downloads 358

Authors: Espinosa Carlos, Nobrega Doris

Abstract:

Children are at high risk for lead (Pb) exposure. The objective of this study was to identify risk factors that contribute to high blood lead (PbB) levels in Venezuelan children. The concentration of PbB was determined in 60 children (ages 4-9 years old), coming from the Michelena sector, Valencia District, Carabobo State. The relationship between these concentrations and socio-economical parameters (A: high quality life; B: fair quality life; C: critic poverty), Pb levels of faucet water (Pb-water) and dust Pb levels of floor (Pb-dust) of their houses, was established. Living areas were classified according to sectors and socio-economical status. Forty [40=66.7%] children resulted with PbB levels above the permissible concentration (LAPC). Average PbB was not significantly higher than the permissible levels. Odds ratio proved that children from status C are 7.28 times more likely to have LAPC of PbB than the ones coming from A or B. Thirty-four percent (34%) of the children with LAPC come from status C which could be considered the most critical status from the exposure risk point of view. The 76,3% of the sampled houses reported VSLP of Pb-water, being the Pb-water average in 35 ± 25.5 ug/L. This average significantly went superior to the permissible limit established by Venezuela and international organisms (10 ug/L). When grouping the results of PbB and Pb-water by sex, were that 50,8% of the children who presented/displayed VSLP of Pb-water and PbB. Was a significant relation (p ≤ 0.05), between masculine sex and the VSLP of PbB and Pb-water (x² = 3,672). In relation to the Pb-Dust analyses, were not statistically significant differences with respect to their permissible limit value (40 ug/pie²). This study shows that by correlating geographical and health data, we can identify 'high risk' areas, leading to a proactive public health action. The results of this study are excellent, in order to take preventive measures for the care from the health. Later studies are suggested predicting main to determine of more conclusive form of levels elevated of PbB in the investigated population.

Keywords: demographic, lead, risk, socio-economical status

Procedia PDF Downloads 135

Authors: Konstantinos G. Kostinakis, Asimina M. Athanatopoulou

Abstract:

A key issue in seismic risk analysis within the context of Performance-Based Earthquake Engineering is the evaluation of the expected seismic damage of structures under a specific earthquake ground motion. The assessment of the seismic performance strongly depends on the choice of the seismic Intensity Measure (IM), which quantifies the characteristics of a ground motion that are important to the nonlinear structural response. Several conventional IMs of ground motion have been used to estimate their damage potential to structures. Yet, none of them has been proved to be able to predict adequately the seismic damage. Therefore, alternative, scalar intensity measures, which take into account not only ground motion characteristics but also structural information have been proposed. Some of these IMs are based on integration of spectral values over a range of periods, in an attempt to account for the information that the shape of the acceleration, velocity or displacement spectrum provides. The adequacy of a number of these IMs in predicting the structural damage of 3D R/C buildings is investigated in the present paper. The investigated IMs, some of which are structure specific and some are nonstructure-specific, are defined via integration of spectral values. To achieve this purpose three symmetric in plan R/C buildings are studied. The buildings are subjected to 59 bidirectional earthquake ground motions. The two horizontal accelerograms of each ground motion are applied along the structural axes. The response is determined by nonlinear time history analysis. The structural damage is expressed in terms of the maximum interstory drift as well as the overall structural damage index. The values of the aforementioned seismic damage measures are correlated with seven scalar ground motion IMs. The comparative assessment of the results revealed that the structure-specific IMs present higher correlation with the seismic damage of the three buildings. However, the adequacy of the IMs for estimation of the structural damage depends on the response parameter adopted. Furthermore, it was confirmed that the widely used spectral acceleration at the fundamental period of the structure is a good indicator of the expected earthquake damage level.

Keywords: damage measures, bidirectional excitation, spectral based IMs, R/C buildings

Procedia PDF Downloads 328

Authors: Min-Ming Wen

Abstract:

Applying the U.S. lodging and tourism industry as a research sample, we examine the relation between the corporate governance structure and managerial risk-taking behavior. In light of the global financial crisis, the importance of effective governance structures is essential in protecting claimholder interests. We propose a governance structure consisting of shareholder governance measured by anti-takeover provisions to examine whether the governance structure has a significant impact on managerial risk-taking behaviors in terms of the investment policy. We will use capital expenditure and R&D investment to measure managerial risk-taking and the firm’s investment policy. In addition, we will examine whether the effects of governance on investment policy differ significantly between speculative and investment-grade firms.

Keywords: corporate governance, risk-taking, firm value, lodging industry

Procedia PDF Downloads 615

Authors: Abbas Fazelinia

Abstract:

Terrorism is not a new phenomenon to the world, yet it remains difficult to define and to counter. Countering terrorism requires several measures that must be taken at the same time. Counterterrorism strategies of most countries depend on military measures. However, those strategies should also focus on nonlethal measures, such as economic, political, and social measures. The psychological dimensions of terrorism must be understood, evaluated, and used in countering terrorism. This study suggests that psychological operations, as nonlethal military operations, can be used to influence individuals not to join terrorist organizations and to facilitate defections from terrorist organizations. However, in order to implement effective psychological operations, one has to have appropriate intelligence about terrorist organizations. Examining terrorist organizations help us to identify their vulnerabilities and obtain this intelligence. This article concludes that terrorists’ motivations, terrorist organizations’ radicalization, recruitment, and conversion processes, ideology, goals, strategies, and general structure form the intelligence requirement for psychological operations in counterterrorism. The methodology used in this article is a mixed method.

Keywords: psychological operations, terrorist, counterterrorism, terrorism

Procedia PDF Downloads 332

Authors: Emre Ipekci Cetin, Ebru Tarcan Icigen

Abstract:

Personnel selection process is considered as one of the most important and most difficult issues in human resources management. At the stage of personnel selection, the applicants are handled according to certain criteria, the candidates are dealt with, and efforts are made to select the most appropriate candidate. However, this process can be more complicated in terms of the managers who will carry out the staff selection process. Candidates should be evaluated according to different criteria such as work experience, education, foreign language level etc. It is crucial that a rational selection process is carried out by considering all the criteria in an integrated structure. In this study, the problem of choosing the front office manager of a 5 star accommodation enterprise operating in Antalya is addressed by using multi-criteria decision-making methods. In this context, SWARA (Step-wise weight assessment ratio analysis) and MOORA (Multi-Objective Optimization on the basis of ratio analysis) methods, which have relatively few applications when compared with other methods, have been used together. Firstly SWARA method was used to calculate the weights of the criteria and subcriteria that were determined by the business. After the weights of the criteria were obtained, the MOORA method was used to rank the candidates using the ratio system and the reference point approach. Recruitment processes differ from sector to sector, from operation to operation. There are a number of criteria that must be taken into consideration by businesses in accordance with the structure of each sector. It is of utmost importance that all candidates are evaluated objectively in the framework of these criteria, after these criteria have been carefully selected in the selection of suitable candidates for employment. In the study, staff selection process was handled by using SWARA and MOORA methods together.

Keywords: accommodation establishments, human resource management, multi-objective optimization on the basis of ratio analysis, multi-criteria decision making, step-wise weight assessment ratio analysis

Procedia PDF Downloads 343

Authors: Hossein Gitinavard, Mohammad Hossein Fazel Zarandi

Abstract:

In the last decades, concerns about the environmental issues lead to professional and academic efforts on green supplier selection problems. In this sake, one of the main issues in evaluating the green supplier selection problems, which could increase the uncertainty, is the preferences of the experts' judgments about the candidate green suppliers. Therefore, preparing an expert system to evaluate the problem based on the historical data and the experts' knowledge can be sensible. This study provides an expert evaluation system to assess the candidate green suppliers under selected criteria in a multi-period approach. In addition, a ranking approach under interval-valued hesitant fuzzy set (IVHFS) environment is proposed to select the most appropriate green supplier in planning horizon. In the proposed ranking approach, the IVHFS and the last aggregation approach are considered to margin the errors and to prevent data loss, respectively. Hence, a comparative analysis is provided based on an illustrative example to show the feasibility of the proposed approach.

Keywords: green supplier selection, expert system, ranking approach, interval-valued hesitant fuzzy setting

Procedia PDF Downloads 328

Authors: Liane Marcia Freitas Silva, Fernando Augusto Silva Marins, Maria Silene Alexandre Leite

Abstract:

The adoption of a network structure, like in the supply chains, favors the increase of dependence between companies and, by consequence, their vulnerability. Environment disasters, sociopolitical and economical events, and the dynamics of supply chains elevate the uncertainty of their operation, favoring the occurrence of events that can generate break up in the operations and other undesired consequences. Thus, supply chains are exposed to various risks that can influence the profitability of companies involved, and there are several previous studies that have proposed risk classification models in order to categorize the risks and to manage them. The objective of this paper is to analyze and discuss thirty of these risk classification models by means a theoretical survey. The research method adopted for analyzing and discussion includes three phases: The identification of the types of risks proposed in each one of the thirty models, the grouping of them considering equivalent concepts associated to their definitions, and, the analysis of these risks groups, evaluating their similarities and differences. After these analyses, it was possible to conclude that, in fact, there is more than thirty risks types identified in the literature of Supply Chains, but some of them are identical despite of be used distinct terms to characterize them, because different criteria for risk classification are adopted by researchers. In short, it is observed that some types of risks are identified as risk source for supply chains, such as, demand risk, environmental risk and safety risk. On the other hand, other types of risks are identified by the consequences that they can generate for the supply chains, such as, the reputation risk, the asset depreciation risk and the competitive risk. These results are consequence of the disagreements between researchers on risk classification, mainly about what is risk event and about what is the consequence of risk occurrence. An additional study is in developing in order to clarify how the risks can be generated, and which are the characteristics of the components in a Supply Chain that leads to occurrence of risk.

Keywords: sisks classification, survey, supply chain management, theoretical discussion

Procedia PDF Downloads 633

Authors: Mohammed Alquraish

Abstract:

Saudi Arabia and other emerging nations have faced significant challenges in the sustainable construction industry. This paper presents a quantitative approach to assessing sustainability risk in the Saudi Arabian construction industry and offers insights into holistic sustainability design in industry operations. The implementation of sustainable construction industry practices in the manufacturing sector has been susceptible to several risk factors that need to be identified. In order to successfully execute sustainable building projects, decision makers in the fields of construction and industry can benefit greatly from the advice this study offers by promoting the elements that motivate sustainability implementation. Sustainability risk can be measured from combining failure probability with cumulative effects from sustainability factors: social, environmental, and economic; that affect the integrity of the construction industry. The cumulative effects of sustainability risk are measured by classifying the outcomes resulting from these consequences. Operators of industrial construction can strategically manage and minimize potential disruptions affecting long-term sustainability incentives by measuring sustainability risk. Thus, the suggested strategy greatly reinforces the crucial role of the construction industry.

Keywords: sustainability, risk, construction industry, Saudi Arabia

Procedia PDF Downloads 40

Authors: Shokrya Saleh A. Alshqaq, Abdullah Ali H. Ahmadini

Abstract:

The Schwarz information criterion (SIC) is a popular tool for selecting the best variables in regression datasets. However, SIC is defined using an unbounded estimator, namely, the least-squares (LS), which is highly sensitive to outlying observations, especially bad leverage points. A method for robust variable selection based on SIC for linear regression models is thus needed. This study investigates the robustness properties of SIC by deriving its influence function and proposes a robust SIC based on the MM-estimation scale. The aim of this study is to produce a criterion that can effectively select accurate models in the presence of vertical outliers and high leverage points. The advantages of the proposed robust SIC is demonstrated through a simulation study and an analysis of a real dataset.

Keywords: influence function, robust variable selection, robust regression, Schwarz information criterion

Procedia PDF Downloads 139

Authors: Belhouchet Selma, Ben Amar Anis

Abstract:

We examine the impact of COVID-19 transmission, containment measures, and vaccination growth on daily stock market returns for the G7 countries (Canada, France, Germany, Italy, Japan, the United Kingdom, and the United States) from January 22, 2020, to August 31, 2021, more than a year and a half after COVID-19. For this objective, we use panel pooled ordinary least squares regressions. Our findings indicate that the spread of the pandemic has a negative impact on the daily performance of the world's seven main stock markets. Government measures to improve stock market returns are no longer successful. Furthermore, our findings demonstrate that immunization efforts in G7 nations do not increase stock market performance in these countries. A variety of robustness tests back up our conclusions. Our findings have far-reaching implications for investors, governments, and regulators not only in the G7 countries but also in all developed countries and all countries globally.

Keywords: COVID-19, G7 stock market, containment measures, vaccination

Procedia PDF Downloads 100

Authors: Siti Rohana Mohd Yatim, Ku Halim Ku Hamid, Kamariah Noor Ismail, Zulkifli Abdul Rashid

Abstract:

The aim of this study is to investigate odour emission profiles from storage of food waste and to assess the potential health risk caused by exposure to volatile compounds. Food waste decomposition process was conducted for 14 days and kept at 20°C and 30°C in self-made bioreactor. VOCs emissions from both samples were collected at different stages of decomposition starting at day 0, day 1, day 3, day 5, day 7, day 10, day 12 and day 14. It was analyzed using TD-GC/MS. Findings showed that various VOCs were released during decomposition of food waste. Compounds produced were influenced by time, temperature and the physico-chemical characteristics of the compounds. The most abundant compound released was dimethyl disulfide. Potential health risk of exposure to this compound is represented by hazard ratio, HR, calculated at 1.6 x 1011. Since HR equal to or less than 1.0 is considered negligible risk, this indicates that the compound posed a potential risk to human health.

Keywords: volatile organic compounds, decomposition process, food waste, health risk

Procedia PDF Downloads 520

Authors: Fatin Fadhilah Hasib, Puji Sucia Sukmaningrum, Imron Mawardi, Achsania Hendratmi

Abstract:

Murabaha is the most popular contract by the Islamic banks in Indonesia, since there is opinion stating that the risk level of mudharaba and musyaraka are higher and the return is uncertain. This research aims to analyze the difference of return, risk, and variation coefficient between profit sharing-based and trading-based financing in Islamic bank. This research uses quantitative approach using Wilcoxon signed rank test with data sampled from 13 Indonesian Islamic banks, collected from their quarterly financial reports from 2011 to 2015. The result shows the significant difference in return, while risk and variation coefficient are almost same. From the analysis, it can be concluded that profit sharing-based financing is less desirable not because of its risk. Trading-based financing is more desirable than the profit sharing because of its return.

Keywords: financing, Islamic bank, return, risk

Procedia PDF Downloads 378

Authors: Masoud Nasiri Sarvi, Yunhua Luo

Abstract:

Low-trauma hip fracture, usually caused by fall from standing height, has become a main source of morbidity and mortality for the elderly. Factors affecting hip fracture include sex, race, age, body weight, height, body mass distribution, etc., and thus, hip fracture risk in fall differs widely from subject to subject. It is therefore necessary to develop a subject-specific biomechanical model to predict hip fracture risk. The objective of this study is to develop a two-level, image-based, subject-specific biomechanical model consisting of a whole-body dynamics model and a proximal-femur finite element (FE) model for more accurately assessing the risk of hip fracture in lateral falls. Required information for constructing the model is extracted from a whole-body and a hip DXA (Dual Energy X-ray Absorptiometry) image of the subject. The proposed model considers all parameters subject-specifically, which will provide a fast, accurate, and non-expensive method for predicting hip fracture risk.

Keywords: bone mineral density, hip fracture risk, impact force, sideways falls

Procedia PDF Downloads 536

Authors: Karim Ahmed

Abstract:

The purpose of this study was to investigate how factoring the impact of natural disasters beyond flooding would affect managed retreat policy eligibility in the United States. For the study design, a correlation analysis method compared weighted measures of flooding and other natural disasters (e.g., wildfires, tornadoes, heatwaves, etc.) to CBSA Populated areas, the prevalence of cropland, and relative poverty on a county level. The study found that the vast majority of CBSAs eligible for managed retreat programs under a policy inclusive of non-flooding events would have already been covered by flood-only managed retreat policies. However, it is noteworthy that a majority of those counties that are not covered by a flood-only managed retreat policy have high rates of poverty and are either heavily populated and/or agriculturally active. The correlation is particularly strong between counties that are subject to multiple natural hazards and those that have both high rates of relative poverty and cropland prevalence. There is currently no managed retreat policy for agricultural land in the United States despite the environmental implications and food supply chain vulnerabilities related to at-risk cropland. The findings of this study suggest both that such a policy should be created and, when it is, that special attention should be paid to non-flood natural disasters affecting agricultural areas. These findings also reveal that, while current flood-based policies in the United States serve many areas that do need access to managed retreat funding and implementation, other vulnerable areas are overlooked by this approach. These areas are often deeply impoverished and are therefore particularly vulnerable to natural disaster; if and when those disasters do occur, these areas are often less financially prepared to recover or retreat from the disaster’s advance and, due to the limitations of the current policies discussed above, are less able to take the precautionary measures necessary to mitigate their risk.

Keywords: flood, hazard, land use, managed retreat, wildfire

Procedia PDF Downloads 126

Authors: Daniel Ter Goon, Aanuoluwa O. Adedokun, Eyitayo Omolara Owolabi, Oladele Vincent Adeniyi, Anthony Idowu Ajayi

Abstract:

Background: The unhealthy food choices and sedentary lifestyle of commercial drivers predisposes them to obesity and obesity related diseases. Yet, no attention has been paid to obesity burden among this high risk group in South Africa. This study examines the prevalence of obesity and its risk factors among commercial drivers in East London, South Africa. Methods: This cross-sectional study utilized the WHO STEP wise approach to screen for obesity among 403 drivers in Buffalo City Metropolitan Municipality (BCMM), South Africa. Anthropometric, blood pressure and blood glucose measurements were taken following a standard procedure. Overweight and obesity was defined as a body mass index (BMI) of 25.0 kgm⁻²–29.9 kg/m² and≥ 30 kg/ m², respectively. Bivariate and multivariate analysis were used to determine the prevalence and determinants of obesity. Result: The mean age of the participants was 43.3 (SD12.5) years, mean height (cm) and weight (kg) were 170.1(6.2cm) and 83(SD18.7), respectively. The prevalence of overweight and obesity was 34.0% and 38.0%, respectively. After adjusting for confounding factors, only age (OR 1.6, CI 1.0-2.7), hypertension (OR 3.6, CI 2.3-5.7) and non-smoking (OR 2.0, CI 1.3-3.1) were independent predictors of obesity. Conclusion: The prevalence of overweight and obesity is high among commercial drivers. Age, hypertension, and non-smoking were independent predictors of obesity among the sample. Measures aimed at promoting health and reducing obesity should be prioritized among this group.

Keywords: obesity and overweight, commercial taxi drivers, risk factors, South Africa

Procedia PDF Downloads 345