Search results for: prediction capability

Authors: Haifeng Wang, Haili Zhang

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Most movie recommendation systems have been developed for customers to find items of interest. This work introduces a predictive model usable by small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) who are in need of a data-based and analytical approach to stock proper movies for local audiences and retain more customers. We used classification models to extract features from thousands of customers’ demographic, behavioral and social information to predict their movie genre preference. In the implementation, a Gaussian kernel support vector machine (SVM) classification model and a logistic regression model were established to extract features from sample data and their test error-in-sample were compared. Comparison of error-out-sample was also made under different Vapnik–Chervonenkis (VC) dimensions in the machine learning algorithm to find and prevent overfitting. Gaussian kernel SVM prediction model can correctly predict movie genre preferences in 85% of positive cases. The accuracy of the algorithm increased to 93% with a smaller VC dimension and less overfitting. These findings advance our understanding of how to use machine learning approach to predict customers’ preferences with a small data set and design prediction tools for these enterprises.

Keywords: computational social science, movie preference, machine learning, SVM

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Authors: Afroditi Zamanidou, Dionysios Giannakopoulos, Konstantinos Manolitsis

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A notable amount of electrical energy demand in many countries worldwide is used to cover public energy demand for road, square and other public spaces’ lighting. Renewable energy can contribute in a significant way to the electrical energy demand coverage for public lighting. This paper focuses on the sizing and design of a hybrid energy system (HES) exploiting the solar-wind energy potential to meet the electrical energy needs of lighting roads, squares and other public spaces. Moreover, the proposed HES provides coverage of the electrical energy demand for a Wi-Fi hotspot and a charging hotspot for the end-users. Alongside the sizing of the energy production system of the proposed HES, in order to ensure a reliable supply without interruptions, a storage system is added and sized. Multiple scenarios of energy consumption are assumed and applied in order to optimize the sizing of the energy production system and the energy storage system. A database with meteorological prediction data for 51 areas in Greece is developed in order to assess the possible deployment of the proposed HES. Since there are detailed meteorological prediction data for all 51 areas under investigation, the use of these data is evaluated, comparing them to real meteorological data. The meteorological prediction data are exploited to form three hourly production profiles for each area for every month of the year; minimum, average and maximum energy production. The energy production profiles are combined with the energy consumption scenarios and the sizing results of the energy production system and the energy storage system are extracted and presented for every area. Finally, the economic performance of the proposed HES in terms of Levelized cost of energy is estimated by calculating and assessing construction, operation and maintenance costs.

Keywords: energy production system sizing, Greece’s deployment potential, meteorological prediction data, wind-solar hybrid energy system, levelized cost of energy

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Authors: Chaiyaporn Yuksen

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Backgroud: Supraventricular tachycardia (SVT) is an abnormally fast atrial tachycardia characterized by narrow (≤ 120 ms) and constant QRS. Adenosine was the drug of choice; the first dose was 6 mg. It can be repeated with the second and third doses of 12 mg, with greater than 90% success. The study found that patients observed at 4 hours after normal sinus rhythm was no recurrence within 24 hours. The objective of this study was to investigate the factors that influence the recurrence of SVT after adenosine in the emergency department (ED). Method: The study was conducted retrospectively exploratory model, prognostic study at the Emergency Department (ED) in Faculty of Medicine, Ramathibodi Hospital, a university-affiliated super tertiary care hospital in Bangkok, Thailand. The study was conducted for ten years period between 2010 and 2020. The inclusion criteria were age > 15 years, visiting the ED with SVT, and treating with adenosine. Those patients were recorded with the recurrence SVT in ED. The multivariable logistic regression model developed the predictive model and prediction score for recurrence PSVT. Result: 264 patients met the study criteria. Of those, 24 patients (10%) had recurrence PSVT. Five independent factors were predictive of recurrence PSVT. There was age>65 years, heart rate (after adenosine) > 100 per min, structural heart disease, and dose of adenosine. The clinical risk score to predict recurrence PSVT is developed accuracy 74.41%. The score of >6 had the likelihood ratio of recurrence PSVT by 5.71 times Conclusion: The clinical predictive score of > 6 was associated with recurrence PSVT in ED.

Keywords: clinical prediction score, SVT, recurrence, emergency department

Procedia PDF Downloads 155

Authors: Yu Hua Yan

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Background: This research attempts to extend and apply the concept of service dominant logic on My Health Bank platform, analyzed to find out are there any significant difference in wills to participate (potential factors for value) on the results of value co-creation? Methods: The questionnaires were delivered from August 2017 to October 2017 in hospitals. 167 valid ones were received, with an effective response rate of 98.2%. Results: This research employed the questionnaire method in collecting research data, with patients that have used My Health Bank as objects, to whom questionnaires were sent. Regarding the factors influencing therapeutic effects, in the statistics of capability and interaction, it reached a significant level (p <0.1). Regarding the factors influencing satisfaction on medical service, in the statistics of capability and interaction, it reached a significant level (p <0.001). Conclusion: Regarding the contributions of this research, it is possible to clarify its contents with the studies on value co-creation to enrich the literature of the studies of service dominant logic and value co-creation in Taiwan. Regarding its contribution in practice, the results of this research allows the value advocator – the government, to have a broader view in the consideration of making the policies on value co-creation.

Keywords: My Health Bank, interactive, participation, value creation

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Authors: D. Abdelrazek, M. NaguibAly, A. A. Badawi, Asmaa G. Abo Elnour, A. A. El-Kafas

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This work is developed within IAEA Coordinated Research Program 1496, “Innovative methods in research reactor analysis: Benchmark against experimental data on neutronics and thermal-hydraulic computational methods and tools for operation and safety analysis of research reactors.” The study investigates the capability of Code RELAP5/Mod3.4 to solve complex geometry complexity. Its results are compared to the results of PARET, a common code in thermal hydraulic analysis for research reactors, belonging to MTR-PC groups. The WWR-SM reactor at the Institute of Nuclear Physics (INP) in the Republic of Uzbekistan is simulated using both PARET and RELAP5 at steady state. Results from the two codes are compared. REALP5 code succeeded in solving the complex fuel geometry. The PARET code needed some calculations to obtain the final result. Although the final results from the PARET are more accurate, the small differences in both results makes using RELAP5 code recommended in case of complex fuel assemblies.

Keywords: complex fuel geometry, PARET, RELAP5, WWR-SM reactor

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Authors: S. Girish, N. Ajay

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Permeation properties have been widely used to quantify durability characteristics of concrete for assessing long term performance and sustainability. The processes of deterioration in concrete are mediated largely by water. There is a strong interest in finding a better way of assessing the material properties of concrete in terms of durability. Water sorptivity is a useful single material property which can be one of the measures of durability useful in service life planning and prediction, especially in severe environmental conditions. This paper presents the results of the comparative study of sorptivity of Self-Compacting Concrete (SCC) with conventionally vibrated concrete. SCC is a new, special type of concrete mixture, characterized by high resistance to segregation that can flow through intricate geometrical configuration in the presence of reinforcement, under its own mass, without vibration and compaction. SCC mixes were developed for the paste contents of 0.38, 0.41 and 0.43 with fly ash as the filler for different cement contents ranging from 300 to 450 kg/m3. The study shows better performance by SCC in terms of capillary absorption. The sorptivity value decreased as the volume of paste increased. The use of higher paste content in SCC can make the concrete robust with better densification of the micro-structure, improving the durability and making the concrete more sustainable with improved long term performance. The sorptivity based on secondary absorption can be effectively used as a durability index to predict the time duration required for the ingress of water to penetrate the concrete, which has practical significance.

Keywords: self-compacting concrete, service life prediction, sorptivity, volume of paste

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Authors: Harish Kumar Ponnappan, Joseph C. Chen

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The main objective of this research is to optimize the surface roughness of a milling operation on AISI 1018 steel using live tooling on a HAAS ST-20 lathe. In this study, Taguchi analysis is used to optimize the milling process by investigating the effect of different machining parameters on surface roughness. The L₉ orthogonal array is designed with four controllable factors with three different levels each and an uncontrollable factor, resulting in 18 experimental runs. The optimal parameters determined from Taguchi analysis were feed rate – 76.2 mm/min, spindle speed 1150 rpm, depth of cut – 0.762 mm and 2-flute TiN coated high-speed steel as tool material. The process capability Cp and process capability index Cpk values were improved from 0.62 and -0.44 to 1.39 and 1.24 respectively. The average surface roughness values from the confirmation runs were 1.30 µ, decreasing the defect rate from 87.72% to 0.01%. The purpose of this study is to efficiently utilize the Taguchi design to optimize the surface roughness in a milling operation using live tooling.

Keywords: live tooling, surface roughness, taguchi analysis, CNC milling operation, CNC turning operation

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Authors: Arpit Patil, Atharav Bhagwat, Rajas Bhope, Pramod Bide

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This research integrates IoT and ML to predict heart failure risks, utilizing the Framingham dataset. IoT devices gather real-time physiological data, focusing on heart rate dynamics, while ML, specifically Random Forest, predicts heart failure. Rigorous feature selection enhances accuracy, achieving over 90% prediction rate. This amalgamation marks a transformative step in proactive healthcare, highlighting early detection's critical role in cardiovascular risk mitigation. Challenges persist, necessitating continual refinement for improved predictive capabilities.

Keywords: cardiovascular diseases, internet of things, machine learning, cardiac risk assessment, heart failure prediction, early detection, cardio data analysis

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Authors: Raymond K. Jonkers

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The present study investigated approaches and techniques to enhance strategic management governance and decision making within the framework of a performance-based balanced scorecard. The review of best practices from strategic, program, process, and systems engineering management provided for a holistic approach toward effective outcome-based capability management. One technique, based on factorial experimental design methods, was used to develop an empirical model. This model predicted the degree of capability effectiveness and is dependent on controlled system input variables and their weightings. These variables represent business performance measures, captured within a strategic balanced scorecard. The weighting of these measures enhances the ability to quantify causal relationships within balanced scorecard strategy maps. The focus in this study was on the performance of tangible assets within the scorecard rather than the traditional approach of assessing performance of intangible assets such as knowledge and technology. Tangible assets are represented in this study as physical systems, which may be thought of as being aboard a ship or within a production facility. The measures assigned to these systems include project funding for upgrades against demand, system certifications achieved against those required, preventive maintenance to corrective maintenance ratios, and material support personnel capacity against that required for supporting respective systems. The resultant scorecard is viewed as complimentary to the traditional balanced scorecard for program and performance management. The benefits from these scorecards are realized through the quantified state of operational capabilities or outcomes. These capabilities are also weighted in terms of priority for each distinct system measure and aggregated and visualized in terms of overall state of capabilities achieved. This study proposes the use of interactive controls within the scorecard as a technique to enhance development of alternative solutions in decision making. These interactive controls include those for assigning capability priorities and for adjusting system performance measures, thus providing for what-if scenarios and options in strategic decision-making. In this holistic approach to capability management, several cross functional processes were highlighted as relevant amongst the different management disciplines. In terms of assessing an organization’s ability to adopt this approach, consideration was given to the P3M3 management maturity model.

Keywords: management, systems, performance, scorecard

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Authors: Farid Khosravikia, Patricia Clayton

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The main objective of this study is to evaluate the advantages and disadvantages of various machine learning techniques in forecasting ground-motion intensity measures given source characteristics, source-to-site distance, and local site condition. Intensity measures such as peak ground acceleration and velocity (PGA and PGV, respectively) as well as 5% damped elastic pseudospectral accelerations at different periods (PSA), are indicators of the strength of shaking at the ground surface. Estimating these variables for future earthquake events is a key step in seismic hazard assessment and potentially subsequent risk assessment of different types of structures. Typically, linear regression-based models, with pre-defined equations and coefficients, are used in ground motion prediction. However, due to the restrictions of the linear regression methods, such models may not capture more complex nonlinear behaviors that exist in the data. Thus, this study comparatively investigates potential benefits from employing other machine learning techniques as a statistical method in ground motion prediction such as Artificial Neural Network, Random Forest, and Support Vector Machine. The algorithms are adjusted to quantify event-to-event and site-to-site variability of the ground motions by implementing them as random effects in the proposed models to reduce the aleatory uncertainty. All the algorithms are trained using a selected database of 4,528 ground-motions, including 376 seismic events with magnitude 3 to 5.8, recorded over the hypocentral distance range of 4 to 500 km in Oklahoma, Kansas, and Texas since 2005. The main reason of the considered database stems from the recent increase in the seismicity rate of these states attributed to petroleum production and wastewater disposal activities, which necessities further investigation in the ground motion models developed for these states. Accuracy of the models in predicting intensity measures, generalization capability of the models for future data, as well as usability of the models are discussed in the evaluation process. The results indicate the algorithms satisfy some physically sound characteristics such as magnitude scaling distance dependency without requiring pre-defined equations or coefficients. Moreover, it is shown that, when sufficient data is available, all the alternative algorithms tend to provide more accurate estimates compared to the conventional linear regression-based method, and particularly, Random Forest outperforms the other algorithms. However, the conventional method is a better tool when limited data is available.

Keywords: artificial neural network, ground-motion models, machine learning, random forest, support vector machine

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Authors: Caihong Sun, Xizi Zhang

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Rating prediction is an important problem for recommender systems. The task is to predict the rating for an item that a user would give. Most of the existing algorithms for the task ignore the effect of negative ratings rated by users on items, but the negative ratings have a significant impact on users’ purchasing decisions in practice. In this paper, we present a rating prediction algorithm based on factorization machines that consider the effect of negative ratings inspired by Loss Aversion theory. The aim of this paper is to develop a concave and a convex negative disgust function to evaluate the negative ratings respectively. Experiments are conducted on MovieLens dataset. The experimental results demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed methods by comparing with other four the state-of-the-art approaches. The negative ratings showed much importance in the accuracy of ratings predictions.

Keywords: factorization machines, feature engineering, negative ratings, recommendation systems

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Authors: Mohammed T. Hayajneh

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Machining of Metal Matrix Composites (MMCs) is very significant process and has been a main problem that draws many researchers to investigate the characteristics of MMCs during different machining process. The poor machining properties of hard particles reinforced MMCs make drilling process a rather interesting task. Unlike drilling of conventional materials, many problems can be seriously encountered during drilling of MMCs, such as tool wear and cutting forces. Cutting tool wear is a very significant concern in industries. Cutting tool wear not only influences the quality of the drilled hole, but also affects the cutting tool life. Prediction the cutting tool life during drilling is essential for optimizing the cutting conditions. However, the relationship between tool life and cutting conditions, tool geometrical factors and workpiece material properties has not yet been established by any machining theory. In this research work, fuzzy subtractive clustering system has been used to model the cutting tool life in drilling of Al₂O₃ particle reinforced aluminum alloy composite to investigate of the effect of cutting conditions on cutting tool life. This investigation can help in controlling and optimizing of cutting conditions when the process parameters are adjusted. The built model for prediction the tool life is identified by using drill diameter, cutting speed, and cutting feed rate as input data. The validity of the model was confirmed by the examinations under various cutting conditions. Experimental results have shown the efficiency of the model to predict cutting tool life.

Keywords: composite, fuzzy, tool life, wear

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Authors: Soheila Sadeghi

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Accurate cost prediction is essential for effective project management and decision-making in the construction industry. This study aims to develop a cost prediction model for construction projects using Machine Learning techniques and Particle Swarm Optimization (PSO). The research utilizes a comprehensive dataset containing project cost estimates, actual costs, resource details, and project performance metrics from a road reconstruction project. The methodology involves data preprocessing, feature selection, and the development of an Artificial Neural Network (ANN) model optimized using PSO. The study investigates the impact of various input features, including cost estimates, resource allocation, and project progress, on the accuracy of cost predictions. The performance of the optimized ANN model is evaluated using metrics such as Mean Squared Error (MSE), Root Mean Squared Error (RMSE), Mean Absolute Error (MAE), and R-squared. The results demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed approach in predicting project costs, outperforming traditional benchmark models. The feature selection process identifies the most influential variables contributing to cost variations, providing valuable insights for project managers. However, this study has several limitations. Firstly, the model's performance may be influenced by the quality and quantity of the dataset used. A larger and more diverse dataset covering different types of construction projects would enhance the model's generalizability. Secondly, the study focuses on a specific optimization technique (PSO) and a single Machine Learning algorithm (ANN). Exploring other optimization methods and comparing the performance of various ML algorithms could provide a more comprehensive understanding of the cost prediction problem. Future research should focus on several key areas. Firstly, expanding the dataset to include a wider range of construction projects, such as residential buildings, commercial complexes, and infrastructure projects, would improve the model's applicability. Secondly, investigating the integration of additional data sources, such as economic indicators, weather data, and supplier information, could enhance the predictive power of the model. Thirdly, exploring the potential of ensemble learning techniques, which combine multiple ML algorithms, may further improve cost prediction accuracy. Additionally, developing user-friendly interfaces and tools to facilitate the adoption of the proposed cost prediction model in real-world construction projects would be a valuable contribution to the industry. The findings of this study have significant implications for construction project management, enabling proactive cost estimation, resource allocation, budget planning, and risk assessment, ultimately leading to improved project performance and cost control. This research contributes to the advancement of cost prediction techniques in the construction industry and highlights the potential of Machine Learning and PSO in addressing this critical challenge. However, further research is needed to address the limitations and explore the identified future research directions to fully realize the potential of ML-based cost prediction models in the construction domain.

Keywords: cost prediction, construction projects, machine learning, artificial neural networks, particle swarm optimization, project management, feature selection, road reconstruction

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Authors: R. Burahee, B. Chassinat, T. de Laclos, A. Dépée, A. Sastim

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The purpose of this paper is to propose a solution to detect, predict and reconstitute rain drops in real time – during the night – using an embedded material with an infrared camera. To prevent the system from needing too high hardware resources, simple models are considered in a powerful image treatment algorithm reducing considerably calculation time in OpenCV software. Using a smart model – drops will be matched thanks to a process running through two consecutive pictures for implementing a sophisticated tracking system. With this system drops computed trajectory gives information for predicting their future location. Thanks to this technique, treatment part can be reduced. The hardware system composed by a Raspberry Pi is optimized to host efficiently this code for real time execution.

Keywords: reconstitution, prediction, detection, rain drop, real time, raspberry, infrared

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Authors: J. K. Alhassan, B. Attah, S. Misra

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Human beings have the ability to make logical decisions. Although human decision - making is often optimal, it is insufficient when huge amount of data is to be classified. medical dataset is a vital ingredient used in predicting patients health condition. In other to have the best prediction, there calls for most suitable machine learning algorithms. This work compared the performance of Artificial Neural Network (ANN) and Decision Tree Algorithms (DTA) as regards to some performance metrics using diabetes data. The evaluations was done using weka software and found out that DTA performed better than ANN. Multilayer Perceptron (MLP) and Radial Basis Function (RBF) were the two algorithms used for ANN, while RegTree and LADTree algorithms were the DTA models used. The Root Mean Squared Error (RMSE) of MLP is 0.3913,that of RBF is 0.3625, that of RepTree is 0.3174 and that of LADTree is 0.3206 respectively.

Keywords: artificial neural network, classification, decision tree algorithms, diabetes mellitus

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Authors: Ioannis P. Panapakidis, Marios N. Moschakis

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The Greek Energy Market is structured as a mandatory pool where the producers make their bid offers in day-ahead basis. The System Operator solves an optimization routine aiming at the minimization of the cost of produced electricity. The solution of the optimization problem leads to the calculation of the System Marginal Price (SMP). Accurate forecasts of the SMP can lead to increased profits and more efficient portfolio management from the producer`s perspective. Aim of this study is to provide a comparative analysis of various machine learning models such as artificial neural networks and neuro-fuzzy models for the prediction of the SMP of the Greek market. Machine learning algorithms are favored in predictions problems since they can capture and simulate the volatilities of complex time series.

Keywords: deregulated energy market, forecasting, machine learning, system marginal price

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Authors: Keda Li, Hong Hu

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Auxetic materials, as an emerging artificial designed metamaterial has attracted growing attention due to their promising negative Poisson’s ratio behaviors and tunable properties. The conventional auxetic lattice structures for which the deformation process is governed by a bending-dominated mechanism have faced the limitation of poor mechanical performance for many potential engineering applications. Recently, both load-bearing and energy absorption capabilities have become a crucial consideration in auxetic structure design. This study reports the finite element analysis of a class of hexagonal double-arrowhead auxetic structures with enhanced stiffness and energy absorption performance. The structure design was developed by extending the traditional double-arrowhead honeycomb to a hexagon frame, the stretching-dominated deformation mechanism was determined according to Maxwell’s stability criterion. The finite element (FE) models of 2D lattice structures established with stainless steel material were analyzed in ABAQUS/Standard for predicting in-plane structural deformation mechanism, failure process, and compressive elastic properties. Based on the computational simulation, the parametric analysis was studied to investigate the effect of the structural parameters on Poisson’s ratio and mechanical properties. The geometrical optimization was then implemented to achieve the optimal Poisson’s ratio for the maximum specific energy absorption. In addition, the optimized 2D lattice structure was correspondingly converted into a 3D geometry configuration by using the orthogonally splicing method. The numerical results of 2D and 3D structures under compressive quasi-static loading conditions were compared separately with the traditional double-arrowhead re-entrant honeycomb in terms of specific Young's moduli, Poisson's ratios, and specified energy absorption. As a result, the energy absorption capability and stiffness are significantly reinforced with a wide range of Poisson’s ratio compared to traditional double-arrowhead re-entrant honeycomb. The auxetic behaviors, energy absorption capability, and yield strength of the proposed structure are adjustable with different combinations of joint angle, struts thickness, and the length-width ratio of the representative unit cell. The numerical prediction in this study suggests the proposed concept of hexagonal double-arrowhead structure could be a suitable candidate for the energy absorption applications with a constant request of load-bearing capacity. For future research, experimental analysis is required for the validation of the numerical simulation.

Keywords: auxetic, energy absorption capacity, finite element analysis, negative Poisson's ratio, re-entrant hexagonal honeycomb

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Authors: Venencia Albert, Arulselvi Subramanian, Hara Prasad Pati, Asok K. Mukhophadhyay

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Acute traumatic coagulopathy in an endogenous dysregulation of the intrinsic coagulation system in response to the injury, associated with three-fold risk of poor outcome, and is more amenable to corrective interventions, subsequent to early identification and management. Multiple definitions for stratification of the patients' risk for early acute coagulopathy have been proposed, with considerable variations in the defining criteria, including several trauma-scoring systems based on prehospital data. We aimed to develop a clinically relevant definition for acute coagulopathy of trauma based on conventional coagulation assays and to assess its efficacy in comparison to recently established prehospital prediction models. Methodology: Retrospective data of all trauma patients (n = 490) presented to our level I trauma center, in 2014, was extracted. Receiver operating characteristic curve analysis was done to establish cut-offs for conventional coagulation assays for identification of patients with acute traumatic coagulopathy was done. Prospectively data of (n = 100) adult trauma patients was collected and cohort was stratified by the established definition and classified as "coagulopathic" or "non-coagulopathic" and correlated with the Prediction of acute coagulopathy of trauma score and Trauma-Induced Coagulopathy Clinical Score for identifying trauma coagulopathy and subsequent risk for mortality. Results: Data of 490 trauma patients (average age 31.85±9.04; 86.7% males) was extracted. 53.3% had head injury, 26.6% had fractures, 7.5% had chest and abdominal injury. Acute traumatic coagulopathy was defined as international normalized ratio ≥ 1.19; prothrombin time ≥ 15.5 s; activated partial thromboplastin time ≥ 29 s. Of the 100 adult trauma patients (average age 36.5±14.2; 94% males), 63% had early coagulopathy based on our conventional coagulation assay definition. Overall prediction of acute coagulopathy of trauma score was 118.7±58.5 and trauma-induced coagulopathy clinical score was 3(0-8). Both the scores were higher in coagulopathic than non-coagulopathic patients (prediction of acute coagulopathy of trauma score 123.2±8.3 vs. 110.9±6.8, p-value = 0.31; trauma-induced coagulopathy clinical score 4(3-8) vs. 3(0-8), p-value = 0.89), but not statistically significant. Overall mortality was 41%. Mortality rate was significantly higher in coagulopathic than non-coagulopathic patients (75.5% vs. 54.2%, p-value = 0.04). High prediction of acute coagulopathy of trauma score also significantly associated with mortality (134.2±9.95 vs. 107.8±6.82, p-value = 0.02), whereas trauma-induced coagulopathy clinical score did not vary be survivors and non-survivors. Conclusion: Early coagulopathy was seen in 63% of trauma patients, which was significantly associated with mortality. Acute traumatic coagulopathy defined by conventional coagulation assays (international normalized ratio ≥ 1.19; prothrombin time ≥ 15.5 s; activated partial thromboplastin time ≥ 29 s) demonstrated good ability to identify coagulopathy and subsequent mortality, in comparison to the prehospital parameter-based scoring systems. Prediction of acute coagulopathy of trauma score may be more suited for predicting mortality rather than early coagulopathy. In emergency trauma situations, where immediate corrective measures need to be taken, complex multivariable scoring algorithms may cause delay, whereas coagulation parameters and conventional coagulation tests will give highly specific results.

Keywords: trauma, coagulopathy, prediction, model

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Authors: Wade Ghribi, Abdelmoty M. Ahmed, Ahmed Said Badawy, Belgacem Bouallegue

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In higher education institutions, the most pressing priority is to improve student performance and retention. Large volumes of student data are used in Educational Data Mining techniques to find new hidden information from students' learning behavior, particularly to uncover the early symptom of at-risk pupils. On the other hand, data with noise, outliers, and irrelevant information may provide incorrect conclusions. By identifying features of students' data that have the potential to improve performance prediction results, comparing and identifying the most appropriate ensemble learning technique after preprocessing the data, and optimizing the hyperparameters, this paper aims to develop a reliable students' performance prediction model for Higher Education Institutions. Data was gathered from two different systems: a student information system and an e-learning system for undergraduate students in the College of Computer Science of a Saudi Arabian State University. The cases of 4413 students were used in this article. The process includes data collection, data integration, data preprocessing (such as cleaning, normalization, and transformation), feature selection, pattern extraction, and, finally, model optimization and assessment. Random Forest, Bagging, Stacking, Majority Vote, and two types of Boosting techniques, AdaBoost and XGBoost, are ensemble learning approaches, whereas Decision Tree, Support Vector Machine, and Artificial Neural Network are supervised learning techniques. Hyperparameters for ensemble learning systems will be fine-tuned to provide enhanced performance and optimal output. The findings imply that combining features of students' behavior from e-learning and students' information systems using Majority Vote produced better outcomes than the other ensemble techniques.

Keywords: educational data mining, student performance prediction, e-learning, classification, ensemble learning, higher education

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Authors: Ahmad Abubakar Sadiq, Nwohu Ndubuka Mark, Jacob Tsado, Ahmad Adam Asharaf, Agbachi E. Okenna, Enesi E. Yahaya, Ambafi James Garba

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Transmission system performance analysis is vital to proper planning and operations of power systems in the presence of deregulation. Key performance indicators (KPIs) are often used as measure of degree of performance. This paper gives a novel method to determine the transmission efficiency by evaluating the ratio of real power losses incurred from a specified transfer direction. Available Transmission Transfer Efficiency (ATTE) expresses the percentage of real power received resulting from inter-area available power transfer. The Tie line (Rated system path) performance is seen to differ from system wide (Network response) performance and ATTE values obtained are transfer direction specific. The required sending end quantities with specified receiving end ATC and the receiving end power circle diagram are obtained for the tie line analysis. The amount of real power loss load relative to the available transfer capability gives a measure of the transmission grid efficiency.

Keywords: performance, transmission system, real power efficiency, available transfer capability

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Authors: Celso L. Fernando, Toshio Yoshii, Takahiro Tsubota

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Understanding the causes of a road accident and predicting their occurrence is key to preventing deaths and serious injuries from road accident events. Traditional statistical methods such as the Poisson and the Logistics regressions have been used to find the association of the traffic environmental factors with the accident occurred; recently, an artificial neural network, ANN, a computational technique that learns from historical data to make a more accurate prediction, has emerged. Although the ability to make accurate predictions, the ANN has difficulty dealing with highly unbalanced attribute patterns distribution in the training dataset; in such circumstances, the ANN treats the minority group as noise. However, in the real world data, the minority group is often the group of interest; e.g., in the road traffic accident data, the events of the accident are the group of interest. This study proposes a combination of the k-means with the ANN to improve the predictive ability of the neural network model by alleviating the effect of the unbalanced distribution of the attribute patterns in the training dataset. The results show that the proposed method improves the ability of the neural network to make a prediction on a highly unbalanced distributed attribute patterns dataset; however, on an even distributed attribute patterns dataset, the proposed method performs almost like a standard neural network.

Keywords: accident risks estimation, artificial neural network, deep learning, k-mean, road safety

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Authors: Alireza Derambakhsh

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The objective of this examination is to explore the capability of utilizing Google Earth for Internet GIS applications. The study particularly analyzes the utilization of vector and characteristic information and the capability of showing and preparing this information in new ways utilizing the Google Earth stage. It has progressively been perceived that future improvements in GIS will fixate on Internet GIS, and in three noteworthy territories: GIS information access, spatial data scattering and GIS displaying/preparing. Google Earth is one of the group of geobrowsers that offer a free and simple to utilize administration that empower information with a spatial part to be overlain on top of a 3-D model of the Earth. This examination makes a methodological structure to accomplish its objective that comprises of three noteworthy parts: A database level, an application level and a customer level. As verification of idea a web model has been produced, which incorporates a differing scope of datasets and lets clients direst inquiries and make perceptions of this custom information. The outcomes uncovered that both vector and property information can be successfully spoken to and imagined utilizing Google Earth. In addition, the usefulness to question custom information and envision results has been added to the Google Earth stage.

Keywords: Google earth, internet GIS, vector, characteristic information

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Authors: Yilin Liao, Hewen Li, Paula McConvey

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Speed skaters often face a risk of concussion when they fall on the ice floor and impact crash mats during practices and competitive races. Several variables, including those related to the skater, the crash mat, and the impact position (body side/head/feet impact), are believed to influence the severity of the skater's concussion. While computer simulation modeling can be employed to analyze these accidents, the simulation process is time-consuming and does not provide rapid information for coaches and teams to assess the skater's injury risk in competitive events. This research paper promotes the exploration of the feasibility of using AI techniques for evaluating skater’s potential concussion severity, and to develop a fast concussion prediction tool using artificial neural networks to reduce the risk of treatment delays for injured skaters. The primary data is collected through virtual tests and physical experiments designed to simulate skater-mat impact. It is then analyzed to identify patterns and correlations; finally, it is used to train and fine-tune the artificial neural networks for accurate prediction. The development of the prediction tool by employing machine learning strategies contributes to the application of AI methods in sports science and has theoretical involvements for using AI techniques in predicting and preventing sports-related injuries.

Keywords: artificial neural networks, concussion, machine learning, impact, speed skater

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Authors: Amit Kumar Verma

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The present study deals with fire prediction model in Terai Arc Landscape, one of the most dramatic ecosystems in Asia where large, wide-ranging species such as tiger, rhinos, and elephant will thrive while bringing economic benefits to the local people. Forest fires cause huge economic and ecological losses and release considerable quantities of carbon into the air and is an important factor inflating the global burden of carbon emissions. Forest fire is an important factor of behavioral cum ecological habit of tiger in wild. Post fire changes i.e. micro and macro habitat directly affect the tiger habitat or land. Vulnerability of fire depicts the changes in microhabitat (humus, soil profile, litter, vegetation, grassland ecosystem). Microorganism like spider, annelids, arthropods and other favorable microorganism directly affect by the forest fire and indirectly these entire microorganisms are responsible for the development of tiger (Panthera tigris) habitat. On the other hand, fire brings depletion in prey species and negative movement of tiger from wild to human- dominated areas, which may leads the conflict i.e. dangerous for both tiger & human beings. Early forest fire prediction through mapping the risk zones can help minimize the fire frequency and manage forest fires thereby minimizing losses. Satellite data plays a vital role in identifying and mapping forest fire and recording the frequency with which different vegetation types are affected. Thematic hazard maps have been generated by using IDW technique. A prediction model for fire occurrence is developed for TAL. The fire occurrence records were collected from state forest department from 2000 to 2014. Disciminant function models was used for developing a prediction model for forest fires in TAL, random points for non-occurrence of fire have been generated. Based on the attributes of points of occurrence and non-occurrence, the model developed predicts the fire occurrence. The map of predicted probabilities classified the study area into five classes very high (12.94%), high (23.63%), moderate (25.87%), low(27.46%) and no fire (10.1%) based upon the intensity of hazard. model is able to classify 78.73 percent of points correctly and hence can be used for the purpose with confidence. Overall, also the model works correctly with almost 69% of points. This study exemplifies the usefulness of prediction model of forest fire and offers a more effective way for management of forest fire. Overall, this study depicts the model for conservation of tiger’s natural habitat and forest conservation which is beneficial for the wild and human beings for future prospective.

Keywords: fire prediction model, forest fire hazard, GIS, landsat, MODIS, TAL

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Authors: Abdullahi Jibrin, Aishetu Abdulkadir

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The development of allometric models is crucial to accurate forest biomass/carbon stock assessment. The aim of this study was to develop a set of biomass prediction models that will enable the determination of total tree aboveground biomass for savannah woodland area in Niger State, Nigeria. Based on the data collected through biometric measurements of 1816 trees and destructive sampling of 36 trees, five species specific and one site specific models were developed. The sample size was distributed equally between the five most dominant species in the study site (Vitellaria paradoxa, Irvingia gabonensis, Parkia biglobosa, Anogeissus leiocarpus, Pterocarpus erinaceous). Firstly, the equations were developed for five individual species. Secondly these five species were mixed and were used to develop an allometric equation of mixed species. Overall, there was a strong positive relationship between total tree biomass and the stem diameter. The coefficient of determination (R2 values) ranging from 0.93 to 0.99 P < 0.001 were realised for the models; with considerable low standard error of the estimates (SEE) which confirms that the total tree above ground biomass has a significant relationship with the dbh. The F-test value for the biomass prediction models were also significant at p < 0.001 which indicates that the biomass prediction models are valid. This study recommends that for improved biomass estimates in the study site, the site specific biomass models should preferably be used instead of using generic models.

Keywords: allometriy, biomass, carbon stock , model, regression equation, woodland, inventory

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Authors: O. B. Iskender, K. V. Ling, V. Dubanchet, L. Simonini

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This paper discusses the recent advances and future prospects of spacecraft position and attitude control using Model Predictive Control (MPC). First, the challenges of the space missions are summarized, in particular, taking into account the errors, uncertainties, and constraints imposed by the mission, spacecraft and, onboard processing capabilities. The summary of space mission errors and uncertainties provided in categories; initial condition errors, unmodeled disturbances, sensor, and actuator errors. These previous constraints are classified into two categories: physical and geometric constraints. Last, real-time implementation capability is discussed regarding the required computation time and the impact of sensor and actuator errors based on the Hardware-In-The-Loop (HIL) experiments. The rationales behind the scenarios’ are also presented in the scope of space applications as formation flying, attitude control, rendezvous and docking, rover steering, and precision landing. The objectives of these missions are explained, and the generic constrained MPC problem formulations are summarized. Three key design elements used in MPC design: the prediction model, the constraints formulation and the objective cost function are discussed. The prediction models can be linear time invariant or time varying depending on the geometry of the orbit, whether it is circular or elliptic. The constraints can be given as linear inequalities for input or output constraints, which can be written in the same form. Moreover, the recent convexification techniques for the non-convex geometrical constraints (i.e., plume impingement, Field-of-View (FOV)) are presented in detail. Next, different objectives are provided in a mathematical framework and explained accordingly. Thirdly, because MPC implementation relies on finding in real-time the solution to constrained optimization problems, computational aspects are also examined. In particular, high-speed implementation capabilities and HIL challenges are presented towards representative space avionics. This covers an analysis of future space processors as well as the requirements of sensors and actuators on the HIL experiments outputs. The HIL tests are investigated for kinematic and dynamic tests where robotic arms and floating robots are used respectively. Eventually, the proposed algorithms and experimental setups are introduced and compared with the authors' previous work and future plans. The paper concludes with a conjecture that MPC paradigm is a promising framework at the crossroads of space applications while could be further advanced based on the challenges mentioned throughout the paper and the unaddressed gap.

Keywords: convex optimization, model predictive control, rendezvous and docking, spacecraft autonomy

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Authors: Eric Fang, Robert Chen, Ghim Song Chia, Bien Soo Tan

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Objective and Rationale: Training of radiology residents hinges on practical, on-the-job training in all facets and modalities of diagnostic radiology. Although residency is structured to be comprehensive, clinical exposure depends on the case mix available locally and during the posting period. To supplement clinical training, there are several e-learning resources available to allow for greater exposure to radiological cases. The objective of this study was to survey residents and faculty on the usefulness of these e-learning resources. Methods: E-learning resources were shortlisted with input from radiology residents, Google search and online discussion groups, and screened by their purported focus. Twelve e-learning resources were found to meet the criteria. Both radiology residents and experienced radiology faculty were then surveyed electronically. The e-survey asked for ratings on breadth, depth, testing capability and user-friendliness for each resource, as well as for rankings for the top 3 resources. Statistical analysis was performed using SAS 9.4. Results: Seventeen residents and fifteen faculties completed an e-survey. Mean response rate was 54% ± 8% (Range: 14- 96%). Ratings and rankings were statistically identical between residents and faculty. On a 5-point rating scale, breadth was 3.68 ± 0.18, depth was 3.95 ± 0.14, testing capability was 2.64 ± 0.16 and user-friendliness was 3.39 ± 0.13. Top-ranked resources were STATdx (first), Radiopaedia (second) and Radiology Assistant (third). 9% of responders singled out R-ITI as potentially good but ‘prohibitively costly’. Statistically significant predictive factors for higher rankings are familiarity with the resource (p = 0.001) and user-friendliness (p = 0.006). Conclusion: A good e-learning system will complement on-the-job training with a broad case base, deep discussion and quality trainee evaluation. Based on our study on twelve e-learning resources, no single program fulfilled all requirements. The perception and use of radiology e-learning resources depended more on familiarity and user-friendliness than on content differences and testing capability.

Keywords: e-learning, medicine, radiology, survey

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Authors: Royan Dawud Aldian, Endah Purwanti, Soegianto Soelistiono

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In this research we have been developed an automatic investigation to classify normal children voice or autistic by using modern computation technology that is computation based on artificial neural network. The superiority of this computation technology is its capability on processing and saving data. In this research, digital voice features are gotten from the coefficient of linear-predictive coding with auto-correlation method and have been transformed in frequency domain using fast fourier transform, which used as input of artificial neural network in back-propagation method so that will make the difference between normal children and autistic automatically. The result of back-propagation method shows that successful classification capability for normal children voice experiment data is 100% whereas, for autistic children voice experiment data is 100%. The success rate using back-propagation classification system for the entire test data is 100%.

Keywords: autism, artificial neural network, backpropagation, linier predictive coding, fast fourier transform

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Authors: Rohini Hariharan, Yazhini R, Bhamidipati Naga Shrikarti

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In the realm of cricket, particularly within the context of the Indian Premier League (IPL), the ability to predict team scores accurately holds significant importance for both cricket enthusiasts and stakeholders alike. This paper presents a comprehensive study on IPL score prediction utilizing various machine learning algorithms, including Support Vector Machines (SVM), XGBoost, Multiple Regression, Linear Regression, K-nearest neighbors (KNN), and Random Forest. Through meticulous data preprocessing, feature engineering, and model selection, we aimed to develop a robust predictive framework capable of forecasting team scores with high precision. Our experimentation involved the analysis of historical IPL match data encompassing diverse match and player statistics. Leveraging this data, we employed state-of-the-art machine learning techniques to train and evaluate the performance of each model. Notably, Multiple Regression emerged as the top-performing algorithm, achieving an impressive accuracy of 77.19% and a precision of 54.05% (within a threshold of +/- 10 runs). This research contributes to the advancement of sports analytics by demonstrating the efficacy of machine learning in predicting IPL team scores. The findings underscore the potential of advanced predictive modeling techniques to provide valuable insights for cricket enthusiasts, team management, and betting agencies. Additionally, this study serves as a benchmark for future research endeavors aimed at enhancing the accuracy and interpretability of IPL score prediction models.

Keywords: indian premier league (IPL), cricket, score prediction, machine learning, support vector machines (SVM), xgboost, multiple regression, linear regression, k-nearest neighbors (KNN), random forest, sports analytics

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Authors: David Percy

Abstract:

Landslides are a geologic phenomenon that affects a large number of inhabited places and are constantly being monitored and studied for the prediction of future occurrences. Reconstructability analysis (RA) is a methodology for extracting informative models from large volumes of data that work exclusively with discrete data. While RA has been used in medical applications and social science extensively, we are introducing it to the spatial sciences through applications like landslide prediction. Since RA works exclusively with discrete data, such as soil classification or bedrock type, working with continuous data, such as porosity, requires that these data are binned for inclusion in the model. RA constructs models of the data which pick out the most informative elements, independent variables (IVs), from each layer that predict the dependent variable (DV), landslide occurrence. Each layer included in the model retains its classification data as a primary encoding of the data. Unlike other machine learning algorithms that force the data into one-hot encoding type of schemes, RA works directly with the data as it is encoded, with the exception of continuous data, which must be binned. The usual physical and derived layers are included in the model, and testing our results against other published methodologies, such as neural networks, yields accuracy that is similar but with the advantage of a completely transparent model. The results of an RA session with a data set are a report on every combination of variables and their probability of landslide events occurring. In this way, every combination of informative state combinations can be examined.

Keywords: reconstructability analysis, machine learning, landslides, raster analysis

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