Search results for: hedging and risk management

Authors: Pubudu K. Hitigala Kaluarachchilage, Champike Attanayake, Sasith Rajasooriya, Chris P. Tsokos

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Operating system (OS) security is a key component of computer security. Assessing and improving OSs strength to resist against vulnerabilities and attacks is a mandatory requirement given the rate of new vulnerabilities discovered and attacks occurring. Frequency and the number of different kinds of vulnerabilities found in an OS can be considered an index of its information security level. In the present study five mostly used OSs, Microsoft Windows (windows 7, windows 8 and windows 10), Apple’s Mac and Linux are assessed for their discovered vulnerabilities and the risk associated with each. Each discovered and reported vulnerability has an exploitability score assigned in CVSS score of the national vulnerability database. In this study the risk from vulnerabilities in each of the five Operating Systems is compared. Risk Indexes used are developed based on the Markov model to evaluate the risk of each vulnerability. Statistical methodology and underlying mathematical approach is described. Initially, parametric procedures are conducted and measured. There were, however, violations of some statistical assumptions observed. Therefore the need for non-parametric approaches was recognized. 6838 vulnerabilities recorded were considered in the analysis. According to the risk associated with all the vulnerabilities considered, it was found that there is a statistically significant difference among average risk levels for some operating systems, indicating that according to our method some operating systems have been more risk vulnerable than others given the assumptions and limitations. Relevant test results revealing a statistically significant difference in the Risk levels of different OSs are presented.

Keywords: cybersecurity, Markov chain, non-parametric analysis, vulnerability, operating system

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Authors: Marc S. Paolella, Pawel Polak

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The paper proposes a framework for large-scale portfolio optimization which accounts for all the major stylized facts of multivariate financial returns, including volatility clustering, dynamics in the dependency structure, asymmetry, heavy tails, and non-ellipticity. It introduces a so-called risk fear portfolio strategy which combines portfolio optimization with active risk monitoring. The former selects optimal portfolio weights. The latter, independently, initiates market exit in case of excessive risks. The strategy agrees with the stylized fact of stock market major sell-offs during the initial stage of market downturns. The advantages of the new framework are illustrated with an extensive empirical study. It leads to superior multivariate density and Value-at-Risk forecasting, and better portfolio performance. The proposed risk fear portfolio strategy outperforms various competing types of optimal portfolios, even in the presence of conservative transaction costs and frequent rebalancing. The risk monitoring of the optimal portfolio can serve as an early warning system against large market risks. In particular, the new strategy avoids all the losses during the 2008 financial crisis, and it profits from the subsequent market recovery.

Keywords: comfort, financial crises, portfolio optimization, risk monitoring

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Authors: Maryam Ghavam Sadri, Kimia Moiniafshari

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Objectives: Autism is a neuro-developmental disorder that has negative effects on verbal, mental and behavioral development. Studies have shown the role of a maternal dietary pattern before and during pregnancy. The relation of exerting of nutritional management programs in prevention of Autism has been approved. This review article has been made to investigate the role of nutritional management strategies before and during pregnancy in the prevention of Autism. Methods: This review study was accomplished by using the keywords related to the topic, 67 articles were found (2000-2015) and finally 20 article with criteria such as including maternal lifestyle, nutritional deficiencies and Autism prevention were selected. Results: Maternal dietary pattern and health before and during pregnancy have important roles in the incidence of Autism. Studies have suggested that high dietary fat intake and obesity can increase the risk of Autism in offspring. Maternal metabolic condition specially gestational diabetes (GDM) (p-value < 0.04) and folate deficiency (p-value = 0.04) is associated with risk of Autism. Studies have shown that folate intake in mothers with autistic children is less than mothers who have typically developing children (TYP) (p-value<0.01). As folate is an essential micronutrient for fetus mental development, consumption of average 600 mcg/day especially in P1 phase of pregnancy results in significant reduction in incidence of Autism (OR:1.53, 95%CI=0.42-0.92, p-value = 0.02). furthermore, essential fatty acid deficiency especially omega-3 fatty acid increases the rate of Autism and consumption of supplements and food sources of omega-3 can decrease the risk of Autism up to 34% (RR=1.53, 95%CI=1-2.32). Conclusion: regards to nutritional deficiency and maternal metabolic condition before and during pregnancy in prevalence of Autism, carrying out the appropriate nutritional strategies such as well-timed folate supplementation before pregnancy and healthy lifestyle adherence for prevention of metabolic syndrome (GDM) seems to help Autism prevention.

Keywords: autism, autism prevention, dietary inadequacy, maternal lifestyle

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Authors: Wlodzimierz Ogryczak, Michal Przyluski, Tomasz Sliwinski

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In problems of portfolio selection, the reward-risk ratio criterion is optimized to search for a risky portfolio with the maximum increase of the mean return in proportion to the risk measure increase when compared to the risk-free investments. In the classical model, following Markowitz, the risk is measured by the variance thus representing the Sharpe ratio optimization and leading to the quadratic optimization problems. Several Linear Programming (LP) computable risk measures have been introduced and applied in portfolio optimization. In particular, the Mean Absolute Deviation (MAD) measure has been widely recognized. The reward-risk ratio optimization with the MAD measure can be transformed into the LP formulation with the number of constraints proportional to the number of scenarios and the number of variables proportional to the total of the number of scenarios and the number of instruments. This may lead to the LP models with huge number of variables and constraints in the case of real-life financial decisions based on several thousands scenarios, thus decreasing their computational efficiency and making them hardly solvable by general LP tools. We show that the computational efficiency can be then dramatically improved by an alternative model based on the inverse risk-reward ratio minimization and by taking advantages of the LP duality. In the introduced LP model the number of structural constraints is proportional to the number of instruments thus not affecting seriously the simplex method efficiency by the number of scenarios and therefore guaranteeing easy solvability. Moreover, we show that under natural restriction on the target value the MAD risk-reward ratio optimization is consistent with the second order stochastic dominance rules.

Keywords: portfolio optimization, reward-risk ratio, mean absolute deviation, linear programming

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Authors: Jeffrey Tzu-Hao Tsai, Yi-Shan Wong

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This article proposes a cohort-age-period (CAP) model to characterize multi-population mortality processes using cohort, age, and period variables. Distinct from the factor-based Lee-Carter-type decomposition mortality model, this approach is empirically based and includes the age, period, and cohort variables into the equation system. The model not only provides a fruitful intuition for explaining multivariate mortality change rates but also has a better performance in forecasting future patterns. Using the US and the UK mortality data and performing ten-year out-of-sample tests, our approach shows smaller mean square errors in both countries compared to the models in the literature.

Keywords: longevity risk, stochastic mortality model, multivariate mortality rate, risk management

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Authors: Ljiljana Seric, Vladimir Divic, Marin Bugaric

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This paper presents methodology for spatial analysis of GIS data that is used for assessing the microlocation risk index from potential damages of high winds. The analysis is performed on freely available GIS data comprising information about wind load, terrain cover and topography of the area. The methodology utilizes the legislation of Eurocode norms for determination of wind load of buildings and constructions. The core of the methodology is adoption of the wind load parameters related to location on geographical spatial grid. Presented work is a part of the Wind Risk Project, supported by the European Commission under the Civil Protection Financial Instrument of the European Union (ECHO). The partners involved in Wind Risk project performed Wind Risk assessment and proposed action plan for three European countries – Slovenia, Croatia and Germany. The proposed method is implemented in GRASS GIS open source GIS software and demonstrated for Case study area of wider area of Split, Croatia. Obtained Wind Risk Index is visualized and correlated with critical infrastructures like buildings, roads and power lines. The results show good correlation between high Wind Risk Index with recent incidents related to wind.

Keywords: Eurocode norms, GIS, spatial analysis, wind distribution, wind risk

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Authors: Babak Mohajeri, Sen Bao, Timo Nyberg

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Customer experience is increasingly the differentiator between successful companies and those who struggle. Currently, customer experiences become more dynamic; and they advance with each interaction between the company and a customer. Every customer conversation and any effort to evolve these conversations would be beneficial and should ultimately result in a positive customer experience. The aim of this paper is to analyze the evolving customer experience management landscape and the relevant challenges and opportunities. A case study on the “paper machine” companies is chosen. Hence, this paper analyzes the challenges and opportunities in customer experience management of paper machine companies for the case of “road to steel”. Road to steel shows the journey of steel from raw material to end product (i.e. paper machine in this paper). ALPHA (Steel company) and BETA (paper machine company), are chosen and their efforts to evolve the customer experiences are investigated. Semi-structured interviews are conducted with experts in those companies to identify the challenges and opportunities of the evolving customer experience management from their point of view. The findings of this paper contribute to the theory and business practices in the realm of the evolving customer experience management landscape.

Keywords: Customer Experience Management, Paper Machine , Value Chain Management, Risk Analysis

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Authors: Sunita Patel

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Cardiovascular diseases are the leading cause of morbidity as well as mortality in India. Objective of this study is to examine CVDs prevalence and identify their behavioral and cultural risk factors with the help of SAGE-2007 data conducted on 6th states in India. Findings reveal that 18.3% of people diagnosed with CVDs in India. Higher disease occurs in an increasing rate between ages of 30-39 having OR 2.45 (CI: 1.66-3.63) and 70+ age OR 7.45 (CI: 4.82-11.49) times higher compare to 18-29 age group respectively. Wealth quintile higher CVD occurs as 3rd in 60% (CI: 1.16-2.21) and in richest 5th quintile 58% (CI: 1.13-2.21) contrast to lowest quintile. Relative risk depicted that 22.4% in moderate and 44% in vigorous activity have less chance of diseases compare to who performed no work and those who consumed alcohol. Results reveal that policy prospect should be recommended and that it would be beneficial for awareness of people and their future.

Keywords: behavioral risk, cultural risk, cardio-vascular diseases, wealth quintile

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Authors: George Mariano Soriano

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In this study, a Rapid Earthquake Risk Ranking Criteria was formulated by integrating various existing maps and databases by the Department of Public Works and Highways (DPWH) and Philippine Institute of Volcanology and Seismology (PHIVOLCS). Utilizing Geographic Information System (GIS) software, the above-mentioned maps and databases were used in extracting seismic hazard parameters and bridge vulnerability characteristics in order to rank the seismic damage risk rating of bridges in the National Capital Region.

Keywords: bridge, earthquake, GIS, hazard, risk, vulnerability

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Authors: Molly Gerrish

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This work explores the physical, emotional, social, and cognitive risks and benefits related to nature-based teaching and highlights the importance of promoting a sustainable workforce within early childhood programs. Assessing and managing risks can help programs reimagine their approach to teaching, learning, recruitment, family connectivity, and staff motivation. The importance of staff sustainability and motivation/engagement related to social justice and the environment will be discussed. We will explore ways to manage fears and limitations faced by early childhood programs regarding nature experiences and risky play in a variety of locations using a lens of place-based learning. We will also examine the alignment of sustainability and social-emotional development, mental health supports, social awareness, and risk assessment. The work will discuss the varied perceptions of risk in diverse areas and the impact on the early childhood workforce. Motivational theory and compassion resiliency are hallmarks of both recruiting and retaining high-quality early childhood educators; the work will discuss how to balance programmatic constraints and healthy motivation for students and teachers while empowering individuals to advocate for their mental health and well-being. Finally, the work will highlight the positive impact of nature-based teaching practices and the overall benefit to young children and their educators.

Keywords: child’s rights, inclusion, nature-based education, risk assessment

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Authors: Mohamed Fairooz Abdul Khir

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The linkage between liability for risk and legitimacy of reward is a governing principle that must be fully observed in financial transactions. It is the cornerstone of any Islamic business or financial deal. The absence of risk taking principle may give rise to numerous prohibited elements such as ribā, gharar and gambling that violate the objectives of financial transactions. However, fiqhī domains from which it emanates have not been clearly spelled out by the scholars. In addition, the concept of risk taking in relation to contemporary risks associated with financial contracts, such as credit risk, liquidity risk, reputational risk and market risk, needs further scrutiny as regard their Sharīʿah bases. Hence, this study is imperatively significant to prove that absence of risk taking concept in Islamic financial instruments give rise to prohibited elements particularly ribā. This study is primarily intended to clarify the concept of risk in Islamic financial transactions from the fiqhī perspective and evaluate analytically the selected issues involving risk taking based on the established concept of risk taking from fiqhī viewpoint. The selected issues are amongst others charging cost of fund on defaulting customers, holding the lessee liable for total loss of leased asset under ijārah thumma al-bayʿ and capital guarantee under mushārakah based instruments. This is a library research in which data has been collected from various materials such as classical fiqh books, regulators’ policy guidelines and journal articles. This study employed deductive and inductive methods to analyze the data critically in search for conclusive findings. It suggests that business risks have to be evaluated based on their subjects namely (i) property (māl) and (ii) work (ʿamal) to ensure that Islamic financial instruments structured based on certain Sharīʿah principles are not diverted from the risk taking concept embedded in them. Analysis of the above selected cases substantiates that when risk taking principle is breached, the prohibited elements such as ribā, gharar and maysir do arise and that they impede the realization of the maqāṣid al-Sharīʿah intended from Islamic financial contracts.

Keywords: Islamic finance, ownership risk, ribā, risk taking

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Authors: Babak Mirbaha, Mahmoud Saffarzadeh, Atieh Asgari Toorzani

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Pedestrians are the most vulnerable road users since they do not have a protective shell. One of the most common collisions for them is pedestrian-vehicle at intersections. In order to develop appropriate countermeasures to improve safety for them, researches have to be conducted to identify the factors that affect the risk of getting involved in such collisions. More specifically, this study investigates factors such as the influence of walking alone or having a baby while crossing the street, the observable age of pedestrian, the speed of pedestrians and the speed of approaching vehicles on risk perception of pedestrians. A nested logit model was used for modeling the behavioral structure of pedestrians. The results show that the presence of more lanes at intersections and not being alone especially having a baby while crossing, decrease the probability of taking a risk among pedestrians. Also, it seems that teenagers show more risky behaviors in crossing the street in comparison to other age groups. Also, the speed of approaching vehicles was considered significant. The probability of risk taking among pedestrians decreases by increasing the speed of approaching vehicle in both the first and the second lanes of crossings.

Keywords: pedestrians, intersection, nested logit, risk

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Authors: Ezri Coda, Kris Justine Miparanum, Relvin Jay Sale

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The study dealt on suicide risk level of college students in UM Tagum College. The primary goal of the study was to assess the level of suicide risk among students at the UM Tagum College in terms of perceived burdensomeness, low belongingness/social alienation and acquired ability to enact lethal self-injury utilizing quantitative non- experimental study with 380 students in UM Tagum College as respondents of the study. Mean was the statistical tools used for the data treatment. Moreover, the study aims to determine the mean of the level of the suicide risk assessment in terms of program, type of student, age, year level, civil status and gender, and lastly, to design an intervention program for those identified students with high suicide risk. Results showed a low level of suicide risk in terms of perceived burdensomeness, low belongingness/social alienation and acquired ability to enact lethal self-injury.

Keywords: suicide risk, perceived burdensomeness, low belongingness/social alienation, acquired ability to enact lethal self-injury, UM Tagum College, Philippines

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Authors: Nael Y. Zabel, Maged E. Georgy, Moheeb E. Ibrahim

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A knowledge-based expert system with the acronym RASPE is developed as an application tool to help decision makers in construction companies make informed decisions about managing risks in pipeline construction projects. Choosing to use expert systems from all available artificial intelligence techniques is due to the fact that an expert system is more suited to representing a domain’s knowledge and the reasoning behind domain-specific decisions. The knowledge-based expert system can capture the knowledge in the form of conditional rules which represent various project scenarios and potential risk mitigation/response actions. The built knowledge in RASPE is utilized through the underlying inference engine that allows the firing of rules relevant to a project scenario into consideration. This paper provides an overview of the knowledge acquisition process and goes about describing the knowledge structure which is divided up into four major modules. The paper shows one module in full detail for illustration purposes and concludes with insightful remarks.

Keywords: expert system, knowledge management, pipeline projects, risk mismanagement

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Authors: Mohamed Chabi

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The project of helping students at risk started at the Math department in the new foundation program at Qatar University in the fall 2012 semester. The purpose was to find ways to help students who were struggling with their math courses Elementary algebra or Precalculus course due to many factors. Department had formed the Committee “students at Risk” at the start of 12-13 to assist struggling students in our math courses to get their studies on track. A mechanism was developed to support students who are at risk using a developed E-Monitoring system. E-Monitoring system was developed to manage automatically all transactions relevant to the students’ attendance, Students ‘‘warning Students’’ grading, etc. E-Monitoring System produce various statistics such as, Overall course statistics, Performance, Students at Risk… to help department to develop a higher quality of education in the Foundation Program at Math department. The mechanism was studies and evaluated. Whatever the cause, the sooner we identify students who are not performing well academically, the sooner we can provide, or direct them to the resources that are available to them. In this paper, we outline the mechanism and its effect on students’ performance. The collected data from various exams shows that students had benefited from the mechanism.

Keywords: students at risk, e-monitoring system, warning students, performance

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Authors: Mikhail V. Khachaturyan, Inga A. Koryagina, Eugenia V. Klicheva

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In modern conditions, scientific judgment of problems in developing mechanisms of value creation and risk management acquires special relevance. Formation of economic knowledge has resulted in the constant analysis of consumer behavior for all players from national and world markets. Effective mechanisms development of the demand analysis, crucial for consumer's characteristics of future production, and the risks connected with the development of this production are the main objectives of control systems in modern conditions. The modern period of economic development is characterized by a high level of globalization of business and rigidity of competition. At the same time, the considerable share of new products and services costs has a non-material intellectual nature. The most successful in Russia is the contemporary development of small innovative firms. Such firms, through their unique technologies and new approaches to process management, which form the basis of their intellectual capital, can show flexibility and succeed in the market. As a rule, such enterprises should have very variable structure excluding the tough scheme of submission and demanding essentially new incentives for inclusion of personnel in innovative activity. Realization of similar structures, as well as a new approach to management, can be constructed based on value-oriented management which is directed to gradual change of consciousness of personnel and formation from groups of adherents included in the solution of the general innovative tasks. At the same time, valuable changes can gradually capture not only innovative firm staff, but also the structure of its corporate partners. Introduction of new technologies is the significant factor contributing to the development of new valuable imperatives and acceleration of the changing values systems of the organization. It relates to the fact that new technologies change the internal environment of the organization in a way that the old system of values becomes inefficient in new conditions. Introduction of new technologies often demands change in the structure of employee’s interaction and training in their new principles of work. During the introduction of new technologies and the accompanying change in the value system, the structure of the management of the values of the organization is changing. This is due to the need to attract more staff to justify and consolidate the new value system and bring their view into the motivational potential of the new value system of the organization.

Keywords: value, risk, creation, problems, organization

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Authors: Samuel Owoade, Zainab Idowu, Idris Ajibade, Abel Uzoka

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Cloud computing adoption continues to soar, with 83% of enterprise workloads estimated to be in the cloud by 2022. However, this rapid migration raises security concerns, needing strong security management solutions to safeguard sensitive data and essential applications. This paper investigates the critical role of technical project managers in orchestrating security management initiatives for cloud environments, evaluating their responsibilities, challenges, and best practices for assuring the resilience and integrity of cloud infrastructures. Drawing from a comprehensive review of industry reports and interviews with cloud security experts, this research highlights the multifaceted landscape of security management in cloud environments. Despite the rapid adoption of cloud services, only 25% of organizations have matured their cloud security practices, indicating a pressing need for effective management strategies. This paper proposes a strategy framework adapted to the demands of technical project managers, outlining the important components of effective cloud security management. Notably, 76% of firms identify misconfiguration as a major source of cloud security incidents, underlining the significance of proactive risk assessment and constant monitoring. Furthermore, the study emphasizes the importance of technical project managers in facilitating cross-functional collaboration, bridging the gap between cybersecurity professionals, cloud architects, compliance officers, and IT operations teams. With 68% of firms seeing difficulties integrating security policies into their cloud systems, effective communication and collaboration are critical to success. Case studies from industry leaders illustrate the practical use of security management projects in cloud settings. These examples demonstrate the importance of technical project managers in using their expertise to address obstacles and generate meaningful outcomes, with 92% of firms reporting improved security practices after implementing proactive security management tactics. In conclusion, this research underscores the critical role of technical project managers in safeguarding cloud environments against evolving threats. By embracing their role as guardians of the cloud realm, project managers can mitigate risks, optimize resource utilization, and uphold the trust and integrity of cloud infrastructures in an era of digital transformation.

Keywords: cloud security, security management, technical project management, cybersecurity, cloud infrastructure, risk management, compliance

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Authors: Oyuntsetseg Sandag, Lkhagvadorj Khosbayar, Naidansuren Tsendeekhuu, Densenbal Dansran, Bandi Solongo

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Introduction: Obstructive sleep apnea (OSA) is a common disorder affecting at least 2% to 4% of the adult population. It is estimated that nearly 80% of men and 93% of women with moderate to severe sleep apnea are undiagnosed. A number of screening questionnaires and clinical screening models have been developed to help identify patients with OSA, also it’s indeed to clinical practice. Purpose of study: Determine dependence of obstructive sleep apnea between for severe risk and risk factor. Material and Methods: A cross-sectional study included 114 patients presenting from theCentral state 3th hospital and Central state 1th hospital. Patients who had obstructive sleep apnea (OSA)selected in this study. Standard StopBang questionnaire was obtained from all patients.According to the patients’ response to the StopBang questionnaire was divided into low risk, intermediate risk, and high risk.Descriptive statistics were presented mean ± standard deviation (SD). Each questionnaire was compared on the likelihood ratio for a positive result, the likelihood ratio for a negative test result of regression. Statistical analyses were performed utilizing SPSS 16. Results: 114 patients were obtained (mean age 48 ± 16, male 57)that divided to low risk 54 (47.4%), intermediate risk 33 (28.9%), high risk 27 (23.7%). Result of risk factor showed significantly increasing that mean age (38 ± 13vs. 54 ± 14 vs. 59 ± 10, p<0.05), blood pressure (115 ± 18vs. 133 ± 19vs. 142 ± 21, p<0.05), BMI(24 IQR 22; 26 vs. 24 IQR 22; 29 vs. 28 IQR 25; 34, p<0.001), neck circumference (35 ± 3.4 vs. 38 ± 4.7 vs. 41 ± 4.4, p<0.05)were increased. Results from multiple logistic regressions showed that age is significantly independently factor for OSA (odds ratio 1.07, 95% CI 1.02-1.23, p<0.01). Predictive value of age was significantly higher factor for OSA (AUC=0.833, 95% CI 0.758-0.909, p<0.001). Our study showing that risk of OSA is beginning 47 years old (sensitivity 78.3%, specifity74.1%). Conclusions: According to most of all patients’ response had intermediate risk and high risk. Also, age, blood pressure, neck circumference and BMI were increased such as risk factor was increased for OSA. Especially age is independently factor and highest significance for OSA. Patients’ age one year is increased likelihood risk factor 1.1 times is increased.

Keywords: obstructive sleep apnea, Stop-Bang, BMI (Body Mass Index), blood pressure

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Authors: Piotr Prewysz-Kwinto

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The market of financial instruments with high risk is developing very dynamically in recent years and attracts more and more interest of investors. It consists essentially of two groups of instruments, i.e. derivatives and exchange traded product (ETP), and each year new types are introduced and offered to investors. The aim of this paper is to present the principles concerning financial instruments with high investment risk available on the Warsaw Stock Exchange (WSE), because they have quite complex constructions, and to evaluate the development of this market. In order to achieve this aim, statistical data from 2014-2016 was analyzed. The results confirm that the financial instruments with high investment risk available on the WSE constitute a diversified and the most numerous group of financial instruments and attract the most interest of investors. Responsible investing requires, however, a good knowledge of how they work and how they can generate profit to not expose oneself to unexpected losses.

Keywords: derivatives, exchange traded products (ETP), financial instruments, financial market, risk, stock exchange

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Authors: Natalia Kalinowska

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The adoption of the General Data Protection Regulation, (GDPR) finished the four-year work of the European Commission in this area in the European Union. Considering far-reaching changes, which will be applied by GDPR, the European legislator envisaged two-year transitional period. Member states and companies have to prepare for a new regulation until 25 of May 2018. The idea, which becomes a new look at an attitude to data protection in the European Union is risk-based approach. So far, as a result of implementation of Directive 95/46/WE, in many European countries (including Poland) there have been adopted very particular regulations, specifying technical and organisational security measures e.g. Polish implementing rules indicate even how long password should be. According to the new approach from May 2018, controllers and processors will be obliged to apply security measures adequate to level of risk associated with specific data processing. The risk in GDPR should be interpreted as the likelihood of a breach of the rights and freedoms of the data subject. According to Recital 76, the likelihood and severity of the risk to the rights and freedoms of the data subject should be determined by reference to the nature, scope, context and purposes of the processing. GDPR does not indicate security measures which should be applied – in recitals there are only examples such as anonymization or encryption. It depends on a controller’s decision what type of security measures controller considered as sufficient and he will be responsible if these measures are not sufficient or if his identification of risk level is incorrect. Data protection regulation indicates few levels of risk. Recital 76 indicates risk and high risk, but some lawyers think, that there is one more category – low risk/now risk. Low risk/now risk data processing is a situation when it is unlikely to result in a risk to the rights and freedoms of natural persons. GDPR mentions types of data processing when a controller does not have to evaluate level of risk because it has been classified as „high risk” processing e.g. processing on a large scale of special categories of data, processing with using new technologies. The methodology will include analysis of legal regulations e.g. GDPR, the Polish Act on the Protection of personal data. Moreover: ICO Guidelines and articles concerning risk based approach in GDPR. The main conclusion is that an appropriate risk assessment is a key to keeping data safe and avoiding financial penalties. On the one hand, this approach seems to be more equitable, not only for controllers or processors but also for data subjects, but on the other hand, it increases controllers’ uncertainties in the assessment which could have a direct impact on incorrect data protection and potential responsibility for infringement of regulation.

Keywords: general data protection regulation, personal data protection, privacy protection, risk based approach

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Authors: Silvia Rahmita

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Entrepreneurial success is crucial for economic growth, competitiveness, and job creation, yet many entrepreneurs face failure due to various challenges. This paper explores the critical role of strategic thinking in mitigating entrepreneurial failure. Entrepreneurial competencies—encompassing knowledge, skills, and traits—are essential for creating and growing ventures. Despite these competencies, numerous entrepreneurs fail due to poor management, inadequate support, and ineffective policies. The paper categorizes entrepreneurial failures into financial, operational, market, product or service, strategic, leadership, legal, human capital, technological, and environmental failures. Each failure type can be addressed through strategic thinking, which involves foresight, balancing short-term and long-term goals, and hypothesis-driven processes. By integrating strategic thinking into their approach, entrepreneurs can enhance risk management, adapt to market changes, and sustain growth. This process involves setting clear goals, innovating products, and maintaining a competitive edge. Ultimately, strategic thinking provides a framework for proactive planning, adaptation, and continuous improvement, reducing the likelihood of failure and ensuring long-term success. Entrepreneurs who prioritize strategic thinking are better equipped to navigate the complexities of the business environment and achieve sustainable growth.

Keywords: entrepreneurial failure, strategic thinking, risk management, business failure

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Authors: Ioannis Andrianakis, Vasileios Gkatas, Nikos Eleftheriadis, Alexios Ellinidis, Ermioni Avramidou

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The paper discusses the main aspects involved in the development of a supply chain management system using the newly developed PredictionSCMS software as a basis for the discussion. The discussion is focused on three topics: the first is demand forecasting, where we present the predictive algorithms implemented and discuss related concepts such as the calculation of the safety stock, the effect of out-of-stock days etc. The second topic concerns the design of a supply chain, where the core parameters involved in the process are given, together with a methodology of incorporating these parameters in a meaningful order creation strategy. Finally, the paper discusses some critical events that can happen during the operation of a supply chain management system and how the developed software notifies the end user about their occurrence.

Keywords: demand forecasting, machine learning, risk management, supply chain design

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Authors: Seyedmohammad Mousavian, Hanlu Fan, Quingliang Tang

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Climate change is emerging as a severe threat to our society, so businesses are expected to take actions to mitigate carbon emissions. However, the actions to be taken depend on managers’ perceptions of climate change risks. Yet, there is scant research on this issue, and understanding of the determinants of corporate perceptions of climate change is extremely limited. The purpose of this study is to close this gap by examining the relationship between perceptions of climate risk and firm-level and country-level factors. In this study, climate change risk captures physical, regulatory, and other risks, and we use data from European companies that participated in CDP from 2010 to 2017. This study reveals those perceptions of climate change risk are significantly positively associated with the environmental, social, and governance score, firm size, and membership in a carbon-intensive sector. In addition, we find that managers in firms operating in a geographic area that is sensitive to the consequences of global warming are more likely to perceive and formally recognize carbon-related risks in their CDP reports.

Keywords: carbon actions, CDP, climate change risk, risk perception

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Authors: Yahya N. Alfraidi, Abdel Halim Boussabaine

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Climate change risk impacts are one of the most challenging aspects that faces the built environment now and the near future. The impacts of climate change on buildings are considered in four different dimensions: physical, economic, social, and management. For each of these, the risks are discussed as they arise from various effects linked to climate change, including windstorms, precipitation, temperature change, flooding, and sea-level rise. For example, building assets in cities will be exposed to extreme hot summer days and nights due to the urban heat island effect and pollution. Buildings also could be vulnerable to water, electricity, gas, etc., scarcity. Building materials, fabric and systems could also be stressed by the emerging climate risks. More impotently the building users might experience extreme internal and extern comfort conditions leading to lower productivity, wellbeing and health problems. Thus, the main aim of this paper to document the emerging risks from climate change on building assets. An in-depth discussion on the consequences of these climate change risk is provided. It is expected that the outcome of this research will be a set of risk design indicators for developing and procuring resilient building assets.

Keywords: climate change, risks of climate change, risks on building from climate change, buildings

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Authors: Saleh Alzahrani, Halim Boussabaine

Abstract:

The majority of Public Private Partnership (PPP) are developed based on the rationale that the design, construction, operation, and financing of a public project is to be awarded to a private party within a single contractual framework. PPP project risks normally include the development and construction of a new asset as well as its operation for decades. Undoubtedly the most serious consequences of risks during the construction period are price and time overruns. These events are amongst the most broadly used scenarios in value for money analysis risks. The sources of risk change over the life cycle of a PPP project. In traditional procurement, the public sector normally has to cover all price distress from these risks. At least there is plenty evidence to suggest that price distress is a norm in some of the projects that are delivered under traditional procurement. This paper will find the impact of construction risk factors into actual construction price into PPP projects. The paper will present a brief literature review on PPP risk pricing strategies, and then using system dynamics (SD) to analyses of the risks associated with the estimated project price. Based on the finding from these analyses a risk pricing association model is presented and discussed. The paper concludes with thoughts for future research.

Keywords: Public Private Partnership (PPP), Risk, Risk Pricing, System Dynamics (SD), construction price

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Authors: Montserrat Guillen, Stephania Mosquera-Lopez, Jorge Uribe

Abstract:

An empirical study of market risk transmission between electricity prices in the Nord Pool interconnected market is done. Crucially, it is differentiated between risk propagation in the two tails of the price variation distribution. Thus, the downside risk from upside risk spillovers is distinguished. The results found document an asymmetric nature of risk and risk propagation in the two tails of the electricity price log variations. Risk spillovers following price increments in the market are transmitted to a larger extent than those after price reductions. Also, asymmetries related to both, the size of the transaction area and related to whether a given area behaves as a net-exporter or net-importer of electricity, are documented. For instance, on the one hand, the bigger the area of the transaction, the smaller the size of the volatility shocks that it receives. On the other hand, exporters of electricity, alongside countries with a significant dependence on renewable sources, tend to be net-transmitters of volatility to the rest of the system. Additionally, insights on the predictive power of positive and negative semivariances for future market volatility are provided. It is shown that depending on the forecasting horizon, downside and upside shocks to the market are featured by a distinctive persistence, and that upside volatility impacts more on net-importers of electricity, while the opposite holds for net-exporters.

Keywords: electricity prices, realized volatility, semivariances, volatility spillovers

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Authors: Hsin-Chih Lai, Yung-Lung Lee, Yun-Yao Chi, Ching-Yi Horng, Pei-Chih Wu, Hsien-Chang Wang

Abstract:

Taiwan, a climatically challenged island, has always been keen on the issue of water resource management due to its limitations in water storage. Since water resource management has been the focal point of many adaptations to climate change, there has been a lack of attention on another issue, water quality. This study chooses the Errer River Basin as the experimental focus for water quality in Taiwan. With the Errer River Basin being one of the most polluted rivers in Taiwan, this study observes the effects of climate change on this river over a period of time. Taiwan is also targeted by multiple typhoons every year, the heavy rainfall and strong winds create problems of pollution being carried to different river segments, including into the ocean. This study aims to create an impact and risk assessment on Errer River Basin, to show the connection from climate change to potential extreme events, which in turn could influence water quality and ultimately human health. Using dynamic downscaling, this study narrows the information from a global scale to a resolution of 1 km x 1 km. Then, through interpolation, the resolution is further narrowed into a resolution of 200m x 200m, to analyze the past, present, and future of extreme events. According to different climate change scenarios, this study designs an assessment index on the vulnerability of the Errer River Basin. Through this index, Errer River inhabitants can access advice on adaptations to climate change and act accordingly.

Keywords: climate change, adaptation, water quality, risk assessment

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Authors: Jefferson Camacho Mejía, Jenny Paola Forero Pachón, Luis Carlos Gómez Flórez

Abstract:

Action research is a qualitative research methodology, which leads the researcher to delve into the problems of a community in order to understand its needs in depth and finally, to propose actions that lead to a change of social paradigm. Although this methodology had its beginnings in the human sciences, it has attracted increasing interest and acceptance in the field of information systems research since the 1990s. The countless possibilities offered nowadays by the use of Information Technologies (IT) in the development of different socio-economic activities have meant a change of social paradigm and the emergence of the so-called information and knowledge society. According to this, governments, large corporations, small entrepreneurs and in general, organizations of all kinds are using IT to virtualize their processes, taking them from the physical environment to the digital environment. However, there is a potential risk for organizations related with exposing valuable information without an appropriate framework for protecting it. This paper shows progress in the development of a methodological design to manage the information security risks associated with the IT-based processes virtualization, by applying the principles of the action research methodology and it is the result of a systematic review of the scientific literature. This design consists of seven fundamental stages. These are distributed in the three stages described in the action research methodology: 1) Observe, 2) Analyze and 3) Take actions. Finally, this paper aims to offer an alternative tool to traditional information security management methodologies with a view to being applied specifically in the planning stage of IT-based process virtualization in order to foresee risks and to establish security controls before formulating IT solutions in any type of organization.

Keywords: action research, information security, information technology, methodological design, process virtualization, risk management

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Authors: Atef Mohamed Kamel Ahmed

Abstract:

House crows (Corvus splendens) have become well-established in Ismailia Governorate, Egypt, where they pose several and serious impacts on native biodiversity, ecosystems and humans health. However, there is a lack of literature on the status and effects of invasive birds in Egypt. Over the past 10 years in Ismailia, House crow have increased at a rate approaching (60000 birds)15% per annum; if this were allowed to continue, the population now 10909 birds and will exceed more by 2013, probably accompanied by an increase in geographical distribution in all Suez canal regions and an exacerbation of the problems caused. Population control is recommended, involving improvements in urban hygiene and the capture of adult crows using stupefying baits. Suitable baits and stupefacient doses were identified and these should be used annually, just before the breeding season. Control should be accompanied by studies of relevant aspects of the biology of house crows in Ismailia Governorate.

Keywords: environmental impact t, non-native invasive species, House crow birds, risk management, Ismailia-Egypt

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Authors: Wassamon Kun-Amornpong

Abstract:

When a financial crisis occurs, there will be a law and regulatory reform in order to manage the turmoil and prevent a future crisis. One of the most important regulatory efforts to help cope with systemic risk and a financial crisis is the third version of the Basel Accord. Basel III has introduced some measures and tools (e.g., systemic risk buffer, countercyclical buffer, capital conservation buffer and liquidity risk) in order to mitigate systemic risk. Nevertheless, the effectiveness of these measures in Basel III in adequately addressing the problem of contagious runs that can quickly spread throughout the financial system is questionable. This paper seeks to contribute to the knowledge regarding the role of the Basel Accords in mitigating systemic risk. The research question is to what extent the Basel Accords can help control systemic risk in the financial markets? The paper tackles this question by analysing the concept of systemic risk. It will then examine the weaknesses of the Basel Accords before and after the Global financial crisis in 2008. Finally, it will suggest some possible solutions in order to improve the Basel Accord. The rationale of the study is the fact that academic works on systemic risk and financial crises are largely studied from economic or financial perspective. There is comparatively little research from the legal and regulatory perspective. The finding of the paper is that there are some problems in all of the three pillars of the Basel Accords. With regards to Pillar I, the risk model is excessively complex while the benefits of its complexity are doubtful. Concerning Pillar II, the effectiveness of the risk-based supervision in preventing systemic risk still depends largely upon its design and implementation. Factors such as organizational culture of the regulator and the political context within which the risk-based supervision operates might be a barrier against the success of Pillar II. Meanwhile, Pillar III could not provide adequate market discipline as market participants do not always act in a rational way. In addition, the too-big-to-fail perception reduced the incentives of the market participants to monitor risks. There has been some development in resolution measure (e.g. TLAC and MREL) which might potentially help strengthen the incentive of the market participants to monitor risks. However, those measures have some weaknesses. The paper argues that if the weaknesses in the three pillars are resolved, it can be expected that the Basel Accord could contribute to the mitigation of systemic risk in a more significant way in the future.

Keywords: Basel accords, financial regulation, risk-based supervision, systemic risk

Procedia PDF Downloads 128