Search results for: random generation
4970 Analysis of Cross-Correlations in Emerging Markets Using Random Matrix Theory
Authors: Thomas Chinwe Urama, Patrick Oseloka Ezepue, Peters Chimezie Nnanwa
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This paper investigates the universal financial dynamics in two dominant stock markets in Sub-Saharan Africa, through an in-depth analysis of the cross-correlation matrix of price returns in Nigerian Stock Market (NSM) and Johannesburg Stock Exchange (JSE), for the period 2009 to 2013. The strength of correlations between stocks is known to be higher in JSE than that of the NSM. Particularly important for modelling Nigerian derivatives in the future, the interactions of other stocks with the oil sector are weak, whereas the banking sector has strong positive interactions with the other sectors in the stock exchange. For the JSE, it is the oil sector and beverages that have greater sectorial correlations, instead of the banks which have the weaker correlation with other sectors in the stock exchange.Keywords: random matrix theory, cross-correlations, emerging markets, option pricing, eigenvalues eigenvectors, inverse participation ratios and implied volatility
Procedia PDF Downloads 2994969 A Social Network Analysis for Formulating Construction Defect Generation Mechanisms
Authors: Hamad Aljassmi, Sangwon Han
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Various solutions for preventing construction defects have been suggested. However, a construction company may have difficulties adopting all these suggestions due to financial and practical constraints. Based on this recognition, this paper aims to identify the most significant defect causes and formulate their defect generation mechanism in order to help a construction company to set priorities of its defect prevention strategies. For this goal, we conducted a questionnaire survey of 106 industry professionals and identified five most significant causes including: (1) organizational culture, (2) time pressure and constraints, (3) workplace quality system, (4) financial constraints upon operational expenses and (5) inadequate employee training or learning opportunities.Keywords: defect, quality, failure, risk
Procedia PDF Downloads 6274968 Experiential Learning: Roles and Attributes of an Optometry Educator Recommended by a Millennial Generation
Authors: E. Kempen, M. J. Labuschagne, M. P. Jama
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There is evidence that experiential learning is truly influential and favored by the millennial generation. However, little is known about the role and attributes an educator has to adopt during the experiential learning cycle, especially when applied in optometry education. This study aimed to identify the roles and attributes of an optometry educator during the different modes of the experiential learning cycle. Methods: A qualitative case study design was used. Data was collected using an open-ended questionnaire survey, following the application of nine different teaching-learning methods based on the experimental learning cycle. The total sample population of 68 undergraduate students from the Department of Optometry at the University of the Free State, South Africa were invited to participate. Focus group interviews (n=15) added additional data that contributed to the interpretation and confirmation of the data obtained from the questionnaire surveys. Results: The perceptions and experiences of the students identified a variety of roles and attributes as well as recommendations on the effective adoption of these roles and attributes. These roles and attributes included being knowledgeable, creating an interest, providing guidance, being approachable, building confidence, implementing ground rules, leading by example, and acting as a mediator. Conclusion: The findings suggest that the actions of an educator have the most substantial impact on students’ perception of a learning experience. Not only are the recommendations based on the views of a millennial generation, but the implementation of the personalized recommendations may also transform a learning environment. This may lead an optometry student to a deeper understanding of knowledge.Keywords: experiences and perceptions, experiential learning, millennial generation, recommendation for optometry education
Procedia PDF Downloads 1154967 Predicting Costs in Construction Projects with Machine Learning: A Detailed Study Based on Activity-Level Data
Authors: Soheila Sadeghi
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Construction projects are complex and often subject to significant cost overruns due to the multifaceted nature of the activities involved. Accurate cost estimation is crucial for effective budget planning and resource allocation. Traditional methods for predicting overruns often rely on expert judgment or analysis of historical data, which can be time-consuming, subjective, and may fail to consider important factors. However, with the increasing availability of data from construction projects, machine learning techniques can be leveraged to improve the accuracy of overrun predictions. This study applied machine learning algorithms to enhance the prediction of cost overruns in a case study of a construction project. The methodology involved the development and evaluation of two machine learning models: Random Forest and Neural Networks. Random Forest can handle high-dimensional data, capture complex relationships, and provide feature importance estimates. Neural Networks, particularly Deep Neural Networks (DNNs), are capable of automatically learning and modeling complex, non-linear relationships between input features and the target variable. These models can adapt to new data, reduce human bias, and uncover hidden patterns in the dataset. The findings of this study demonstrate that both Random Forest and Neural Networks can significantly improve the accuracy of cost overrun predictions compared to traditional methods. The Random Forest model also identified key cost drivers and risk factors, such as changes in the scope of work and delays in material delivery, which can inform better project risk management. However, the study acknowledges several limitations. First, the findings are based on a single construction project, which may limit the generalizability of the results to other projects or contexts. Second, the dataset, although comprehensive, may not capture all relevant factors influencing cost overruns, such as external economic conditions or political factors. Third, the study focuses primarily on cost overruns, while schedule overruns are not explicitly addressed. Future research should explore the application of machine learning techniques to a broader range of projects, incorporate additional data sources, and investigate the prediction of both cost and schedule overruns simultaneously.Keywords: cost prediction, machine learning, project management, random forest, neural networks
Procedia PDF Downloads 544966 Experimental Demonstration of an Ultra-Low Power Vertical-Cavity Surface-Emitting Laser for Optical Power Generation
Authors: S. Nazhan, Hassan K. Al-Musawi, Khalid A. Humood
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This paper reports on an experimental investigation into the influence of current modulation on the properties of a vertical-cavity surface-emitting laser (VCSEL) with a direct square wave modulation. The optical output power response, as a function of the pumping current, modulation frequency, and amplitude, is measured for an 850 nm VCSEL. We demonstrate that modulation frequency and amplitude play important roles in reducing the VCSEL’s power consumption for optical generation. Indeed, even when the biasing current is below the static threshold, the VCSEL emits optical power under the square wave modulation. The power consumed by the device to generate light is significantly reduced to > 50%, which is below the threshold current, in response to both the modulation frequency and amplitude. An operating VCSEL device at low power is very desirable for less thermal effects, which are essential for a high-speed modulation bandwidth.Keywords: vertical-cavity surface-emitting lasers, VCSELs, optical power generation, power consumption, square wave modulation
Procedia PDF Downloads 1654965 Racial Bias by Prosecutors: Evidence from Random Assignment
Authors: CarlyWill Sloan
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Racial disparities in criminal justice outcomes are well-documented. However, there is little evidence on the extent to which racial bias by prosecutors is responsible for these disparities. This paper tests for racial bias in conviction by prosecutors. To identify effects, this paper leverages as good as random variation in prosecutor race using detailed administrative data on the case assignment process and case outcomes in New York County, New York. This paper shows that the assignment of an opposite-race prosecutor leads to a 5 percentage point (~ 8 percent) increase in the likelihood of conviction for property crimes. There is no evidence of effects for other types of crimes. Additional results indicate decreased dismissals by opposite-race prosecutors likely drive my property crime estimates.Keywords: criminal justice, discrimination, prosecutors, racial disparities
Procedia PDF Downloads 1914964 A Comparison of Generation Dependent Brain Targeting Potential of(Poly Propylene Mine) Dendrimers
Authors: Nitin Dwivedi, Jigna Shah
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Aim and objective of study: This article indicates a comparison among various generations of dendrimers, a dendrimer is a bioactive material has repetitively branched molecule and used for delivery of various therapeutic active agents. This debut report compares the effect various generations of PPI dendrimers for brain targeting and management of neurodegenerative disorders potential on single platform. This report involves the study of the various mechanism of synthesis ligand anchored various generations PPI dendrimers deliver the drug directly to the CNS, prove their effectiveness in the management of the various neurodegenerative disease. Material and Methods: The Memantine an anti-Alzheimer drug loaded in different generations (3.0G, 4.0G, and 5.0G) of PPI dendrimers which were synthesized were synthesized. The various studies investigate the effect of PPI dendrimers generation on different characteristic parameters i.e. synthesis procedure, drug loading, release behavior, hemolysis profile at different concentration, MRI study for determine the route drug from olfactory transfer, animal model study in vitro, as well as in vivo performance. The outcomes of the investigation indicate drug delivery benefit as well as superior biocompatibility of 4.0G PPI dendrimer over 3.0G and 5.0G dendrimer, respectively. Results and Conclusion: The above study indicate the superiority of in drug delivery system with maximum drug utilization and minimize the drug dose for neurodegenerative disorder over 5.0G PPI dendrimers. So, 4.0G PPI dendrimers are the safe formulations for the symptomatic treatment of the neurodegenerative disorder. The fifth-generation poly(propyleneimine) (PPI) dendrimers, inherent toxicity due to the presence of many peripheral cationic groups is the major issue that limits their applicability.Keywords: Alzheimer disease, generation, memantine, PPI
Procedia PDF Downloads 6674963 Working Title: Estimating the Power Output of Photovoltaics in Kuwait Using a Monte Carlo Approach
Authors: Mohammad Alshawaf, Rahmat Poudineh, Nawaf Alhajeri
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The power generated from photovoltaic (PV) modules is non-dispatchable on demand due to the stochastic nature of solar radiation. The random variations in the measured intensity of solar irradiance are due to clouds and, in the case of arid regions, dust storms which decrease the intensity of intensity of solar irradiance. Therefore, modeling PV power output using average, maximum, or minimum solar irradiance values is inefficient to predict power generation reliably. The overall objective of this paper is to predict the power output of PV modules using Monte Carlo approach based the weather and solar conditions measured in Kuwait. Given the 250 Wp PV module used in study, the average daily power output is 1021 Wh/day. The maximum power was generated in April and the minimum power was generated in January 1187 Wh/day and 823 Wh/day respectively. The certainty of the daily predictions varies seasonally and according to the weather conditions. The output predictions were far more certain in the summer months, for example, the 80% certainty range for August is 89 Wh/day, whereas the 80% certainty range for April is 250 Wh/day.Keywords: Monte Carlo, solar energy, variable renewable energy, Kuwait
Procedia PDF Downloads 1314962 A Statistical Model for the Dynamics of Single Cathode Spot in Vacuum Cylindrical Cathode
Authors: Po-Wen Chen, Jin-Yu Wu, Md. Manirul Ali, Yang Peng, Chen-Te Chang, Der-Jun Jan
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Dynamics of cathode spot has become a major part of vacuum arc discharge with its high academic interest and wide application potential. In this article, using a three-dimensional statistical model, we simulate the distribution of the ignition probability of a new cathode spot occurring in different magnetic pressure on old cathode spot surface and at different arcing time. This model for the ignition probability of a new cathode spot was proposed in two typical situations, one by the pure isotropic random walk in the absence of an external magnetic field, other by the retrograde motion in external magnetic field, in parallel with the cathode surface. We mainly focus on developed relationship between the ignition probability density distribution of a new cathode spot and the external magnetic field.Keywords: cathode spot, vacuum arc discharge, transverse magnetic field, random walk
Procedia PDF Downloads 4344961 Mobile WiMAX Network based Wireless Communication on Rail: An Analysis
Authors: Vinod Kumar Jatav, Dr. Vrijendra Singh
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WiMAX is an emerging wireless technology designed by WiMAX forum. WiMAX technology delivers broadband internet access with QoS, mobility and robust security. WiMAX is among the prominent mobile broadband wireless technology which laid the foundation for the next generation networks (NGN). The next-generation communication system for railway should facilitate high level network availability, fast mobility for high speed trains with reliability, high handover rate, the firmness of train operations, and high QoS. The system should also be capable to provide various railway services by transmitting big data efficiently. One of the most promising technologies for the next generation railway wireless communication is Mobile WiMAX. This paper analyses some of the network architectures for railway wireless communication and considers the elementary concepts to facilitate the users with broadband internet access on trains. The paper aims to recognize the suitability of Mobile WiMAX technology for the special requirements of broadband internet facilities and wireless telecommunication services of Railways.Keywords: Broadband internet, IEEE 802.16e, mobile WiMAX, Railway wireless communication
Procedia PDF Downloads 5244960 A Novel Machining Method and Tool-Path Generation for Bent Mandrel
Authors: Hong Lu, Yongquan Zhang, Wei Fan, Xiangang Su
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Bent mandrel has been widely used as precise mould in automobile industry, shipping industry and aviation industry. To improve the versatility and efficiency of turning method of bent mandrel with fixed rotational center, an instantaneous machining model based on cutting parameters and machine dimension is prospered in this paper. The spiral-like tool path generation approach in non-axisymmetric turning process of bent mandrel is developed as well to deal with the error of part-to-part repeatability in existed turning model. The actual cutter-location points are calculated by cutter-contact points, which are obtained from the approach of spiral sweep process using equal-arc-length segment principle in polar coordinate system. The tool offset is set to avoid the interference between tool and work piece is also considered in the machining model. Depend on the spindle rotational angle, synchronization control of X-axis, Z-axis and C-axis is adopted to generate the tool-path of the turning process. The simulation method is developed to generate NC program according to the presented model, which includes calculation of cutter-location points and generation of tool-path of cutting process. With the approach of a bent mandrel taken as an example, the maximum offset of center axis is 4mm in the 3D space. Experiment results verify that the machining model and turning method are appropriate for the characteristics of bent mandrel.Keywords: bent mandrel, instantaneous machining model, simulation method, tool-path generation
Procedia PDF Downloads 3364959 Study of Changes in the Pulsation Period of Six Cepheid Variables
Authors: Mohamed Abdel Sabour, Mohamed Nouh, Ian Stevans, Essam Elkholy
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We study the period change of six Cepheids using 19376 accurate flux observations of the Solar Mass Ejection Imager (SMEI) onboard the Coriolis spacecraft. All observations for the six Cepheids have been derived as templates for each star, independent of the specific sites utilized to establish and update the O-C values. Sometimes, sinusoidal patterns are superimposed on the star's O-C changes, which cannot be regarded as random fluctuations in the pulsation period. Random period changes were detected and computed using Eddington's and Plakidis's approaches. A comparison of the observed and predicted period change reveals a good agreement with some published models and a very substantial divergence with others. Between the reported period change and that estimated by the current technique, a linear fit with a correlation coefficient of 90.08 percent was obtained. The temporal rate of period change in Cepheid stars might be connected to how well these stars' mass losses are known today.Keywords: cepheids, period change, mass loss, O-C changes, period change, mass loss, O-C
Procedia PDF Downloads 414958 Development of One-Axis Didactic Solar Tracker for Photovoltaic Panels
Authors: L. J. de Bessa Neto, M. R. B. Guerra Vale, F. K. O. M. Varella Guerra
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In recent years, solar energy has established itself as one of the main sources of renewable energy, gaining a large space in electricity generation around the world. However, due to the low performance of photovoltaic panels, technologies need to be sought to maximize the production of electricity. In this regard, the present study aims to develop a prototype of solar tracker for didactics applications, controlled with the Arduino® platform, that enables the movement of photovoltaic plates in relation to the sun positions throughout the day through an electromechanical system, optimizing, thus, the efficiency of solar photovoltaic generation and improvements for the photovoltaic effect. The solar tracking technology developed in this work was presented of the shape oral and practical in two middle schools in the municipality of Mossoró/RN, being one of the public network and other of the private network, always keeping the average age of the students, in the case, around 16 years, contemplating an average of 60 students in each of the visits. Thus, it is concluded that the present study contributed substantially to the dissemination of knowledge concerning the photovoltaic solar generation, as well as the study of solar trackers, thus arousing the interest and curiosity of the students regarding the thematic approached.Keywords: alternative energy, solar tracker, energy efficiency, photovoltaic panels
Procedia PDF Downloads 1474957 Gaussian Particle Flow Bernoulli Filter for Single Target Tracking
Authors: Hyeongbok Kim, Lingling Zhao, Xiaohong Su, Junjie Wang
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The Bernoulli filter is a precise Bayesian filter for single target tracking based on the random finite set theory. The standard Bernoulli filter often underestimates the number of targets. This study proposes a Gaussian particle flow (GPF) Bernoulli filter employing particle flow to migrate particles from prior to posterior positions to improve the performance of the standard Bernoulli filter. By employing the particle flow filter, the computational speed of the Bernoulli filters is significantly improved. In addition, the GPF Bernoulli filter provides a more accurate estimation compared with that of the standard Bernoulli filter. Simulation results confirm the improved tracking performance and computational speed in two- and three-dimensional scenarios compared with other algorithms.Keywords: Bernoulli filter, particle filter, particle flow filter, random finite sets, target tracking
Procedia PDF Downloads 924956 Domain Adaptive Dense Retrieval with Query Generation
Authors: Rui Yin, Haojie Wang, Xun Li
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Recently, mainstream dense retrieval methods have obtained state-of-the-art results on some datasets and tasks. However, they require large amounts of training data, which is not available in most domains. The severe performance degradation of dense retrievers on new data domains has limited the use of dense retrieval methods to only a few domains with large training datasets. In this paper, we propose an unsupervised domain-adaptive approach based on query generation. First, a generative model is used to generate relevant queries for each passage in the target corpus, and then, the generated queries are used for mining negative passages. Finally, the query-passage pairs are labeled with a cross-encoder and used to train a domain-adapted dense retriever. We also explore contrastive learning as a method for training domain-adapted dense retrievers and show that it leads to strong performance in various retrieval settings. Experiments show that our approach is more robust than previous methods in target domains that require less unlabeled data.Keywords: dense retrieval, query generation, contrastive learning, unsupervised training
Procedia PDF Downloads 1034955 Multivariate Analysis of Spectroscopic Data for Agriculture Applications
Authors: Asmaa M. Hussein, Amr Wassal, Ahmed Farouk Al-Sadek, A. F. Abd El-Rahman
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In this study, a multivariate analysis of potato spectroscopic data was presented to detect the presence of brown rot disease or not. Near-Infrared (NIR) spectroscopy (1,350-2,500 nm) combined with multivariate analysis was used as a rapid, non-destructive technique for the detection of brown rot disease in potatoes. Spectral measurements were performed in 565 samples, which were chosen randomly at the infection place in the potato slice. In this study, 254 infected and 311 uninfected (brown rot-free) samples were analyzed using different advanced statistical analysis techniques. The discrimination performance of different multivariate analysis techniques, including classification, pre-processing, and dimension reduction, were compared. Applying a random forest algorithm classifier with different pre-processing techniques to raw spectra had the best performance as the total classification accuracy of 98.7% was achieved in discriminating infected potatoes from control.Keywords: Brown rot disease, NIR spectroscopy, potato, random forest
Procedia PDF Downloads 1904954 Metabolic Cost and Perceived Exertion during Progressive and Randomized Walking Protocols
Authors: Simeon E. H. Davies
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This study investigated whether selected metabolic responses and the perception of effort varied during four different walk protocols where speed increased progressively 3, 4, 5, 6, and 7 km/hr (progressive treadmill walk (PTW); and progressive land walk (PLW); or where the participant adjusted to random changes of speed e.g. 6, 3, 7, 4, and 5 km/hr during a randomized treadmill walk (RTW); and a randomized land walk (RLW). Mean stature and mass of the seven participants was 1.75m and 70kg respectively, with a mean body fat of 15%. Metabolic measures including heart rate, relative oxygen uptake, ventilation, increased in a linear fashion up to 6 km/hr, however at 7 km/hr there was a significant increase in metabolic response notably during the PLW, and to a similar, although lesser extent in RLW, probably as a consequence of the loss of kinetic energy when turning at each cone in order to maintain the speed during each shuttle. Respiration frequency appeared to be a more sensitive indicator of physical exertion, exhibiting a rapid elevation at 5 km/hr. The perception of effort during each mode and at each speed was largely congruent during each walk protocol.Keywords: exertion, metabolic, progressive, random, walking
Procedia PDF Downloads 4614953 The Misuse of Social Media in Order to Exploit "Generation Y"; The Tactics of IS
Authors: Ali Riza Perçin, Eser Bingül
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Internet technologies have created opportunities with which people share their ideologies, thoughts and products. This virtual world, named social media has given the chance of gathering individual users and people from the world's remote locations and establishing an interaction between them. However, to an increasingly higher degree terrorist organizations today use the internet and most notably social-network media to create the effects they desire through a series of on-line activities. These activities, designed to support their activities, include information collection (intelligence), target selection, propaganda, fundraising and recruitment to name a few. Meanwhile, these have been used as the most important tool for recruitment especially from the different region of the world, especially disenfranchised youth, in the West in order to mobilize support and recruit “foreign fighters.” The recruits have obtained the statue, which is not accessible in their society and have preferred the style of life that is offered by the terrorist organizations instead of their current life. Like other terrorist groups, for a while now the terrorist organization Islamic State (IS) in Iraq and Syria has employed a social-media strategy in order to advance their strategic objectives. At the moment, however, IS seems to be more successful in their on-line activities than other similar organizations. IS uses social media strategically as part of its armed activities and for the sustainability of their military presence in Syria and Iraq. In this context, “Generation Y”, which could exist at the critical position and undertake active role, has been examined. Additionally, the explained characteristics of “Generation Y” have been put forward and the duties of families and society have been stated as well.Keywords: social media, "generation Y", terrorist organization, islamic state IS
Procedia PDF Downloads 4264952 Unravelling Domestic Electricity Demand by Domestic Renewable Energy Supply: A Case Study in Yogyakarta and Central Java, Indonesia
Authors: Diyono Harun
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Indonesia aims to reduce carbon emissions from energy generation by reaching 23% and 31% of the national energy supply from renewable energy sources (RES) in 2025 and 2030. The potential for RES in Indonesia is enormous, but not all province has the same potential for RES. Yogyakarta, one of the most travel-destinated provinces in Indonesia, has less potential than its neighbour, Central Java. Consequently, Yogyakarta must meet its electricity demand by importing electricity from Central Java if this province only wants to use electricity from RES. Thus, achieving the objective is balancing the electricity supply between an importer (Yogyakarta) and an exporter province (Central Java). This research aims to explore the RES potential and the current capacity of RES for electricity generation in both provinces. The results show that the present capacity of RES meets the annual domestic electricity demand in both provinces only with an extension of the RES potential. The renewable energy mixes in this research also can lower CO2 emissions compared to gas-fired power plants. This research eventually provides insights into exploring and using the domestic RES potentials between two areas with different RES capacities.Keywords: energy mix, renewable energy sources, domestic electricity, electricity generation
Procedia PDF Downloads 884951 A research of Dhuta Characteristic Poems Associated with Traditional Serpent Medicine (From Galkalla and Ratmalavetia Vedaparampara)
Authors: M. S. M. Anjalee Umesha Bandara
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Hela Veda Shastra is a science that is an endowment from generation to generation. There is also an individualistic science and indigenous practice of traditional herbs. There are many effective cures for snakes, fractures, head cancer, cuts, lunatics, reflexology, etc. Hela physicians who rescued them from infections caused by snakes have recognized poems to remember the medicines they used to cure the patients. Due to the harmony of the Hela Osu and Hela Knowledge poetry collection, it has become easy for the juniors of the Hela Veda generation to gain medical knowledge. It is a research problem whether it is possible to arrive at a correct conclusion about the patient form of the snake information thread through the existing Dhuta characteristics of Hela Serpa Vedakam. This research was done with the assumption that snake venom can be successfully treated according to its characteristics. In this research, two generations related to the Ratmalavatiya Vedaparamparava and the Vannihatpattu of the Kalla Veda generation have been identified as Veda Paramparas who treat and created Dutha Kavya, including the form of the Serpent Dasthana. They have collected ancient books, documents and interviews related to qualitative research on snake disease treatment. In addition, collecting data by referring to books related to Hela medicine. The ancient indigenous lineage methods that are superior to modern Western science's snake therapy should save the Hela's amazing wealth of wisdom for the future, leaving aside the selfishness of keeping the teaching to themselves.Keywords: snake venom medicine, vedic genealogy, Dhuta characteristic, snake
Procedia PDF Downloads 624950 Key Concepts of 5th Generation Mobile Technology
Authors: Magri Hicham, Noreddine Abghour, Mohamed Ouzzif
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The 5th generation of mobile networks is term used in various research papers and projects to identify the next major phase of mobile telecommunications standards. 5G wireless networks will support higher peak data rate, lower latency and provide best connections with QoS guarenty. In this article, we discuss various promising technologies for 5G wireless communication systems, such as IPv6 support, World Wide Wireless Web (WWWW), Dynamic Adhoc Wireless Networks (DAWN), BEAM DIVISION MULTIPLE ACCESS (BDMA), Cloud Computing and cognitive radio technology.Keywords: WWWW, BDMA, DAWN, 5G, 4G, IPv6, Cloud Computing
Procedia PDF Downloads 5144949 Overview of Risk Management in Electricity Markets Using Financial Derivatives
Authors: Aparna Viswanath
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Electricity spot prices are highly volatile under optimal generation capacity scenarios due to factors such as non-storability of electricity, peak demand at certain periods, generator outages, fuel uncertainty for renewable energy generators, huge investments and time needed for generation capacity expansion etc. As a result market participants are exposed to price and volume risk, which has led to the development of risk management practices. This paper provides an overview of risk management practices by market participants in electricity markets using financial derivatives.Keywords: financial derivatives, forward, futures, options, risk management
Procedia PDF Downloads 4794948 An Efficient Stud Krill Herd Framework for Solving Non-Convex Economic Dispatch Problem
Authors: Bachir Bentouati, Lakhdar Chaib, Saliha Chettih, Gai-Ge Wang
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The problem of economic dispatch (ED) is the basic problem of power framework, its main goal is to find the most favorable generation dispatch to generate each unit, reduce the whole power generation cost, and meet all system limitations. A heuristic algorithm, recently developed called Stud Krill Herd (SKH), has been employed in this paper to treat non-convex ED problems. The proposed KH has been modified using Stud selection and crossover (SSC) operator, to enhance the solution quality and avoid local optima. We are demonstrated SKH effects in two case study systems composed of 13-unit and 40-unit test systems to verify its performance and applicability in solving the ED problems. In the above systems, SKH can successfully obtain the best fuel generator and distribute the load requirements for the online generators. The results showed that the use of the proposed SKH method could reduce the total cost of generation and optimize the fulfillment of the load requirements.Keywords: stud krill herd, economic dispatch, crossover, stud selection, valve-point effect
Procedia PDF Downloads 1984947 An Efficient Acquisition Algorithm for Long Pseudo-Random Sequence
Authors: Wan-Hsin Hsieh, Chieh-Fu Chang, Ming-Seng Kao
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In this paper, a novel method termed the Phase Coherence Acquisition (PCA) is proposed for pseudo-random (PN) sequence acquisition. By employing complex phasors, the PCA requires only complex additions in the order of N, the length of the sequence, whereas the conventional method utilizing fast Fourier transform (FFT) requires complex multiplications and additions both in the order of Nlog2N . In order to combat noise, the input and local sequences are partitioned and mapped into complex phasors in PCA. The phase differences between pairs of input and local phasors are utilized for acquisition, and thus complex multiplications are avoided. For more noise-robustness capability, the multi-layer PCA is developed to extract the code phase step by step. The significant reduction of computational loads makes the PCA an attractive method, especially when the sequence length of is extremely large which becomes intractable for the FFT-based acquisition.Keywords: FFT, PCA, PN sequence, convolution theory
Procedia PDF Downloads 4784946 Wind Energy Potential of Southern Sindh, Pakistan for Power Generation
Authors: M. Akhlaque Ahmed, Maliha Afshan Siddiqui
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A study has been carried out to see the prospect of wind power potential of southern Sindh namely Karachi, Hawksbay, Norriabad, Hyderabad, Ketibander and Shahbander using local wind speed data. The monthly average wind speed for these area ranges from 4.5m/sec to 8.5m/sec at 30m height from ground. Extractable wind power, wind energy and Weibul parameter for above mentioned areas have been examined. Furthermore, the power output using fast and slow wind machine using different blade diameter along with the 4Kw and 20 Kw aero-generator were examined to see the possible use for deep well pumping and electricity supply to remote villages. The analysis reveals that in this wind corridor of southern Sindh Hawksbay, Ketibander and Shahbander belongs to wind power class-3 Hyderabad and Nooriabad belongs to wind power class-5 and Karachi belongs to wind power class-2. The result shows that the that higher wind speed values occur between June till August. It was found that considering maximum wind speed location, Hawksbay,Noriabad are the best location for setting up wind machines for power generation.Keywords: wind energy generation, Southern Sindh, seasonal change, Weibull parameter, wind machines
Procedia PDF Downloads 1494945 The Performance Improvement of Solar Aided Power Generation System by Introducing the Second Solar Field
Authors: Junjie Wu, Hongjuan Hou, Eric Hu, Yongping Yang
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Solar aided power generation (SAPG) technology has been proven as an efficient way to make use of solar energy for power generation purpose. In an SAPG plant, a solar field consisting of parabolic solar collectors is normally used to supply the solar heat in order to displace the high pressure/temperature extraction steam. To understand the performance of such a SAPG plant, a new simulation model was developed by the authors recently, in which the boiler was treated, as a series of heat exchangers unlike other previous models. Through the simulations using the new model, it was found the outlet properties of reheated steam, e.g. temperature, would decrease due to the introduction of the solar heat. The changes make the (lower stage) turbines work under off-design condition. As a result, the whole plant’s performance may not be optimal. In this paper, the second solar filed was proposed to increase the inlet temperature of steam to be reheated, in order to bring the outlet temperature of reheated steam back to the designed condition. A 600MW SAPG plant was simulated as a case study using the new model to understand the impact of the second solar field on the plant performance. It was found in the study, the 2nd solar field would improve the plant’s performance in terms of cycle efficiency and solar-to-electricity efficiency by 1.91% and 6.01%. The solar-generated electricity produced by per aperture area under the design condition was 187.96W/m2, which was 26.14% higher than the previous design.Keywords: solar-aided power generation system, off-design performance, coal-saving performance, boiler modelling, integration schemes
Procedia PDF Downloads 2904944 Development of Scenarios for Sustainable Next Generation Nuclear System
Authors: Muhammad Minhaj Khan, Jaemin Lee, Suhong Lee, Jinyoung Chung, Johoo Whang
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The Republic of Korea has been facing strong storage crisis from nuclear waste generation as At Reactor (AR) temporary storage sites are about to reach saturation. Since the country is densely populated with a rate of 491.78 persons per square kilometer, Construction of High-level waste repository will not be a feasible option. In order to tackle the storage waste generation problem which is increasing at a rate of 350 tHM/Yr. and 380 tHM/Yr. in case of 20 PWRs and 4 PHWRs respectively, the study strongly focuses on the advancement of current nuclear power plants to GEN-IV sustainable and ecological nuclear systems by burning TRUs (Pu, MAs). First, Calculations has made to estimate the generation of SNF including Pu and MA from PWR and PHWR NPPS by using the IAEA code Nuclear Fuel Cycle Simulation System (NFCSS) for the period of 2016, 2030 (including the saturation period of each site from 2024~2028), 2089 and 2109 as the number of NPPS will increase due to high import cost of non-nuclear energy sources. 2ndly, in order to produce environmentally sustainable nuclear energy systems, 4 scenarios to burnout the Plutonium and MAs are analyzed with the concentration on burning of MA only, MA and Pu together by utilizing SFR, LFR and KALIMER-600 burner reactor after recycling the spent oxide fuel from PWR through pyro processing technology developed by Korea Atomic Energy Research Institute (KAERI) which shows promising and sustainable future benefits by minimizing the HLW generation with regard to waste amount, decay heat, and activity. Finally, With the concentration on front and back end fuel cycles for open and closed fuel cycles of PWR and Pyro-SFR respectively, an overall assessment has been made which evaluates the quantitative as well as economical combativeness of SFR metallic fuel against PWR once through nuclear fuel cycle.Keywords: GEN IV nuclear fuel cycle, nuclear waste, waste sustainability, transmutation
Procedia PDF Downloads 3524943 Artificial Neural Network Approach for Modeling Very Short-Term Wind Speed Prediction
Authors: Joselito Medina-Marin, Maria G. Serna-Diaz, Juan C. Seck-Tuoh-Mora, Norberto Hernandez-Romero, Irving Barragán-Vite
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Wind speed forecasting is an important issue for planning wind power generation facilities. The accuracy in the wind speed prediction allows a good performance of wind turbines for electricity generation. A model based on artificial neural networks is presented in this work. A dataset with atmospheric information about air temperature, atmospheric pressure, wind direction, and wind speed in Pachuca, Hidalgo, México, was used to train the artificial neural network. The data was downloaded from the web page of the National Meteorological Service of the Mexican government. The records were gathered for three months, with time intervals of ten minutes. This dataset was used to develop an iterative algorithm to create 1,110 ANNs, with different configurations, starting from one to three hidden layers and every hidden layer with a number of neurons from 1 to 10. Each ANN was trained with the Levenberg-Marquardt backpropagation algorithm, which is used to learn the relationship between input and output values. The model with the best performance contains three hidden layers and 9, 6, and 5 neurons, respectively; and the coefficient of determination obtained was r²=0.9414, and the Root Mean Squared Error is 1.0559. In summary, the ANN approach is suitable to predict the wind speed in Pachuca City because the r² value denotes a good fitting of gathered records, and the obtained ANN model can be used in the planning of wind power generation grids.Keywords: wind power generation, artificial neural networks, wind speed, coefficient of determination
Procedia PDF Downloads 1244942 Spatial Rank-Based High-Dimensional Monitoring through Random Projection
Authors: Chen Zhang, Nan Chen
Abstract:
High-dimensional process monitoring becomes increasingly important in many application domains, where usually the process distribution is unknown and much more complicated than the normal distribution, and the between-stream correlation can not be neglected. However, since the process dimension is generally much bigger than the reference sample size, most traditional nonparametric multivariate control charts fail in high-dimensional cases due to the curse of dimensionality. Furthermore, when the process goes out of control, the influenced variables are quite sparse compared with the whole dimension, which increases the detection difficulty. Targeting at these issues, this paper proposes a new nonparametric monitoring scheme for high-dimensional processes. This scheme first projects the high-dimensional process into several subprocesses using random projections for dimension reduction. Then, for every subprocess with the dimension much smaller than the reference sample size, a local nonparametric control chart is constructed based on the spatial rank test to detect changes in this subprocess. Finally, the results of all the local charts are fused together for decision. Furthermore, after an out-of-control (OC) alarm is triggered, a diagnostic framework is proposed. using the square-root LASSO. Numerical studies demonstrate that the chart has satisfactory detection power for sparse OC changes and robust performance for non-normally distributed data, The diagnostic framework is also effective to identify truly changed variables. Finally, a real-data example is presented to demonstrate the application of the proposed method.Keywords: random projection, high-dimensional process control, spatial rank, sequential change detection
Procedia PDF Downloads 2994941 Stock Price Prediction with 'Earnings' Conference Call Sentiment
Authors: Sungzoon Cho, Hye Jin Lee, Sungwhan Jeon, Dongyoung Min, Sungwon Lyu
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Major public corporations worldwide use conference calls to report their quarterly earnings. These 'earnings' conference calls allow for questions from stock analysts. We investigated if it is possible to identify sentiment from the call script and use it to predict stock price movement. We analyzed call scripts from six companies, two each from Korea, China and Indonesia during six years 2011Q1 – 2017Q2. Random forest with Frequency-based sentiment scores using Loughran MacDonald Dictionary did better than control model with only financial indicators. When the stock prices went up 20 days from earnings release, our model predicted correctly 77% of time. When the model predicted 'up,' actual stock prices went up 65% of time. This preliminary result encourages us to investigate advanced sentiment scoring methodologies such as topic modeling, auto-encoder, and word2vec variants.Keywords: earnings call script, random forest, sentiment analysis, stock price prediction
Procedia PDF Downloads 292