Search results for: multi-criteria decision aiding
3560 Performance Evaluation and Planning for Road Safety Measures Using Data Envelopment Analysis and Fuzzy Decision Making
Authors: Hamid Reza Behnood, Esmaeel Ayati, Tom Brijs, Mohammadali Pirayesh Neghab
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Investment projects in road safety planning can benefit from an effectiveness evaluation regarding their expected safety outcomes. The objective of this study is to develop a decision support system (DSS) to support policymakers in taking the right choice in road safety planning based on the efficiency of previously implemented safety measures in a set of regions in Iran. The measures considered for each region in the study include performance indicators about (1) police operations, (2) treated black spots, (3) freeway and highway facility supplies, (4) speed control cameras, (5) emergency medical services, and (6) road lighting projects. To this end, inefficiency measure is calculated, defined by the proportion of fatality rates in relation to the combined measure of road safety performance indicators (i.e., road safety measures) which should be minimized. The relative inefficiency for each region is modeled by the Data Envelopment Analysis (DEA) technique. In a next step, a fuzzy decision-making system is constructed to convert the information obtained from the DEA analysis into a rule-based system that can be used by policy makers to evaluate the expected outcomes of certain alternative investment strategies in road safety.Keywords: performance indicators, road safety, decision support system, data envelopment analysis, fuzzy reasoning
Procedia PDF Downloads 3243559 Marketing Mix Factor Affecting Decision Making Behavior in Using Fitness Service
Authors: Siri-Orn Champatong
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The objectives of this research were to study the attitude of service marketing mix that affected the decision making behavior to use fitness service in case of the fitness in Thailand. This study employed by survey research and questionnaire was used to collect the data from 400 of consumers who have used the service and interested in using the service in the future. The descriptive statistics and multiple regression analysis were used to analyze data. The results revealed that the attitude toward overall marketing mix was at moderate level. For particulars, attitude toward product and service aspects were at good level, however, attitude toward price, place, promotion, people, physical evidence and service quality aspects were at moderate level. The hypothesis testing results showed that attitude toward each aspect affected word of mouth, however, attitude toward product and service, place, promotion, people and physical evidence affected tendency to use fitness service at .05 statistically significant level.Keywords: decision making behavior, fitness, marketing mix, marketing service
Procedia PDF Downloads 3083558 A Framework for an Automated Decision Support System for Selecting Safety-Conscious Contractors
Authors: Rawan A. Abdelrazeq, Ahmed M. Khalafallah, Nabil A. Kartam
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Selection of competent contractors for construction projects is usually accomplished through competitive bidding or negotiated contracting in which the contract bid price is the basic criterion for selection. The evaluation of contractor’s safety performance is still not a typical criterion in the selection process, despite the existence of various safety prequalification procedures. There is a critical need for practical and automated systems that enable owners and decision makers to evaluate contractor safety performance, among other important contractor selection criteria. These systems should ultimately favor safety-conscious contractors to be selected by the virtue of their past good safety records and current safety programs. This paper presents an exploratory sequential mixed-methods approach to develop a framework for an automated decision support system that evaluates contractor safety performance based on a multitude of indicators and metrics that have been identified through a comprehensive review of construction safety research, and a survey distributed to domain experts. The framework is developed in three phases: (1) determining the indicators that depict contractor current and past safety performance; (2) soliciting input from construction safety experts regarding the identified indicators, their metrics, and relative significance; and (3) designing a decision support system using relational database models to integrate the identified indicators and metrics into a system that assesses and rates the safety performance of contractors. The proposed automated system is expected to hold several advantages including: (1) reducing the likelihood of selecting contractors with poor safety records; (2) enhancing the odds of completing the project safely; and (3) encouraging contractors to exert more efforts to improve their safety performance and practices in order to increase their bid winning opportunities which can lead to significant safety improvements in the construction industry. This should prove useful to decision makers and researchers, alike, and should help improve the safety record of the construction industry.Keywords: construction safety, contractor selection, decision support system, relational database
Procedia PDF Downloads 2553557 From Intuitive to Constructive Audit Risk Assessment: A Complementary Approach to CAATTs Adoption
Authors: Alon Cohen, Jeffrey Kantor, Shalom Levy
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The use of the audit risk model in auditing has faced limitations and difficulties, leading auditors to rely on a conceptual level of its application. The qualitative approach to assessing risks has resulted in different risk assessments, affecting the quality of audits and decision-making on the adoption of CAATTs. This study aims to investigate risk factors impacting the implementation of the audit risk model and propose a complementary risk-based instrument (KRIs) to form substance risk judgments and mitigate against heightened risk of material misstatement (RMM). The study addresses the question of how risk factors impact the implementation of the audit risk model, improve risk judgments, and aid in the adoption of CAATTs. The study uses a three-stage scale development procedure involving a pretest and subsequent study with two independent samples. The pretest involves an exploratory factor analysis, while the subsequent study employs confirmatory factor analysis for construct validation. Additionally, the authors test the ability of the KRIs to predict audit efforts needed to mitigate against heightened RMM. Data was collected through two independent samples involving 767 participants. The collected data was analyzed using exploratory factor analysis and confirmatory factor analysis to assess scale validity and construct validation. The suggested KRIs, comprising two risk components and seventeen risk items, are found to have high predictive power in determining audit efforts needed to reduce RMM. The study validates the suggested KRIs as an effective instrument for risk assessment and decision-making on the adoption of CAATTs. This study contributes to the existing literature by implementing a holistic approach to risk assessment and providing a quantitative expression of assessed risks. It bridges the gap between intuitive risk evaluation and the theoretical domain, clarifying the mechanism of risk assessments. It also helps improve the uniformity and quality of risk assessments, aiding audit standard-setters in issuing updated guidelines on CAATT adoption. A few limitations and recommendations for future research should be mentioned. First, the process of developing the scale was conducted in the Israeli auditing market, which follows the International Standards on Auditing (ISAs). Although ISAs are adopted in European countries, for greater generalization, future studies could focus on other countries that adopt additional or local auditing standards. Second, this study revealed risk factors that have a material impact on the assessed risk. However, there could be additional risk factors that influence the assessment of the RMM. Therefore, future research could investigate other risk segments, such as operational and financial risks, to bring a broader generalizability to our results. Third, although the sample size in this study fits acceptable scale development procedures and enables drawing conclusions from the body of research, future research may develop standardized measures based on larger samples to reduce the generation of equivocal results and suggest an extended risk model.Keywords: audit risk model, audit efforts, CAATTs adoption, key risk indicators, sustainability
Procedia PDF Downloads 463556 The Impact of Structural Empowerment on Risk Management Practices: A Case Study of Saudi Arabia Construction Small and Medium-Sized Enterprises
Authors: S. Alyami, S. Mohammad
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These Risk management practices have a significant impact on construction SMEs. The effective utilisation of these practices depends on culture change in order to optimise decision making for critical activities within construction projects. Thus, successful implementation of empowerment strategies would enhance operational employees to participate in effective decision making. However, there remain many barriers to individuals and organisations within empowerment strategies that require empirical investigation before the industry can benefit from their implementation. Gaps in understanding the relationship between employee empowerment and risk management practices still exist. This research paper aims to examine the impact of the structural empowerment on risk management practices in construction SMEs. The questionnaire has been distributed to participants (162 employees) that involve projects and civil engineers within a case study from Saudi construction SMEs. Partial least squares based structural equation modeling (PLS-SEM) was utilised to perform analysis. The results reveal a positive relationship between empowerment and risk management practices. The study shows how structural empowerment contributes to operational employees in risk management practices through involving activities such as decision making, self-efficiency, and autonomy. The findings of this study will contribute to close the current gaps in the construction SMEs context.Keywords: construction SMEs, culture, decision making, empowerment, risk management
Procedia PDF Downloads 933555 Ad Hocism Aiding Sufferings of Urban Refugees in Nepal: A Case Study of Pakistani Ahmadi Refugees
Authors: Shishir Lamichhane
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Nepal neither is a party to any international refugee instruments nor does it have a national legislation to govern the refugee concerns legislated in the international legal instruments. In the absence of both of these, Nepal has adopted a rather ad hoc approach to dealing with refugees. Whereas Nepali state’s ad hocism seems to be paying off well with prominent (and mainstream) refugee populations of Bhutanese and Tibetans, urban refugees like Pakistani Ahmadiyya refugees have been left mostly at the odds. This paper is an attempt to reflect how the ad hoc approach taken by the host country (Nepal) is resulting in the further persecution of the Pakistani Ahmadiyya refugees and is lined up with arguments about how the basic rights of these refugees are being violated in the absence of a proper law. Relevant information regarding urban refugees residing in Kathmandu has been gathered by applying Empirical Research Methodology, while the paper also reviews pertinent literature already available on the case of Ahmadiya community.Keywords: Pakistan, Ahmadiya community, Nepal, urban refugees
Procedia PDF Downloads 1973554 A Value-Oriented Metamodel for Small and Medium Enterprises’ Decision Making
Authors: Romain Ben Taleb, Aurélie Montarnal, Matthieu Lauras, Mathieu Dahan, Romain Miclo
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To be competitive and sustainable, any company has to maximize its value. However, unlike listed companies that can assess their values based on market shares, most Small and Medium Enterprises (SMEs) which are non-listed cannot have direct and live access to this critical information. Traditional accounting reports only give limited insights to SME decision-makers about the real impact of their day-to-day decisions on the company’s performance and value. Most of the time, an SME’s financial valuation is made one time a year as the associated process is time and resource-consuming, requiring several months and external expertise to be completed. To solve this issue, we propose in this paper a value-oriented metamodel that enables real-time and dynamic assessment of the SME’s value based on the large definition of their assets. These assets cover a wider scope of resources of the company and better account for immaterial assets. The proposal, which is illustrated in a case study, discusses the benefits of incorporating assets in the SME valuation.Keywords: SME, metamodel, decision support system, financial valuation, assets
Procedia PDF Downloads 673553 Multidirectional Product Support System for Decision Making in Textile Industry Using Collaborative Filtering Methods
Authors: A. Senthil Kumar, V. Murali Bhaskaran
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In the information technology ground, people are using various tools and software for their official use and personal reasons. Nowadays, people are worrying to choose data accessing and extraction tools at the time of buying and selling their products. In addition, worry about various quality factors such as price, durability, color, size, and availability of the product. The main purpose of the research study is to find solutions to these unsolved existing problems. The proposed algorithm is a Multidirectional Rank Prediction (MDRP) decision making algorithm in order to take an effective strategic decision at all the levels of data extraction, uses a real time textile dataset and analyzes the results. Finally, the results are obtained and compared with the existing measurement methods such as PCC, SLCF, and VSS. The result accuracy is higher than the existing rank prediction methods.Keywords: Knowledge Discovery in Database (KDD), Multidirectional Rank Prediction (MDRP), Pearson’s Correlation Coefficient (PCC), VSS (Vector Space Similarity)
Procedia PDF Downloads 2583552 Clarification of the Essential of Life Cycle Cost upon Decision-Making Process: An Empirical Study in Building Projects
Authors: Ayedh Alqahtani, Andrew Whyte
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Life Cycle Cost (LCC) is one of the goals and key pillars of the construction management science because it comprises many of the functions and processes necessary, which assist organisations and agencies to achieve their goals. It has therefore become important to design and control assets during their whole life cycle, from the design and planning phase through to disposal phase. LCCA is aimed to improve the decision making system in the ownership of assets by taking into account all the cost elements including to the asset throughout its life. Current application of LCC approach is impractical during misunderstanding of the advantages of LCC. This main objective of this research is to show a different relationship between capital cost and long-term running costs. One hundred and thirty eight actual building projects in United Kingdom (UK) were used in order to achieve and measure the above-mentioned objective of the study. The result shown that LCC is one of the most significant tools should be considered on the decision making process.Keywords: building projects, capital cost, life cycle cost, maintenance costs, operation costs
Procedia PDF Downloads 5263551 The Functional Magnetic Resonance Imaging and the Consumer Behaviour: Reviewing Recent Research
Authors: Mikel Alonso López
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In the first decade of the twenty-first century, advanced imaging techniques began to be applied for neuroscience research. The Functional Magnetic Resonance Imaging (fMRI) is one of the most important and most used research techniques for the investigation of emotions, because of its ease to observe the brain areas that oxygenate when performing certain tasks. In this research, we make a review about the main research carried out on the influence of the emotions in the decision-making process that is exposed by using the fMRI.Keywords: decision making, emotions, fMRI, consumer behaviour
Procedia PDF Downloads 4543550 Implications of Meteorological Parameters in Decision Making for Public Protective Actions during a Nuclear Emergency
Authors: M. Hussaina, K. Mahboobb, S. Z. Ilyasa, S. Shaheena
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Plume dispersion modeling is a computational procedure to establish a relationship between emissions, meteorology, atmospheric concentrations, deposition and other factors. The emission characteristics (stack height, stack diameter, release velocity, heat contents, chemical and physical properties of the gases/particle released etc.), terrain (surface roughness, local topography, nearby buildings) and meteorology (wind speed, stability, mixing height, etc.) are required for the modeling of the plume dispersion and estimation of ground and air concentration. During the early phase of Fukushima accident, plume dispersion modeling and decisions were taken for the implementation of protective measures. A difference in estimated results and decisions made by different countries for taking protective actions created a concern in local and international community regarding the exact identification of the safe zone. The current study is focused to highlight the importance of accurate and exact weather data availability, scientific approach for decision making for taking urgent protective actions, compatible and harmonized approach for plume dispersion modeling during a nuclear emergency. As a case study, the influence of meteorological data on plume dispersion modeling and decision-making process has been performed.Keywords: decision making process, radiation doses, nuclear emergency, meteorological implications
Procedia PDF Downloads 1613549 Application of the Critical Decision Method for Monitoring and Improving Safety in the Construction Industry
Authors: Juan Carlos Rubio Romero, Francico Salguero Caparros, Virginia Herrera-Pérez
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No one is in the slightest doubt about the high levels of risk involved in work in the construction industry. They are even higher in structural construction work. The Critical Decision Method (CDM) is a semi-structured interview technique that uses cognitive tests to identify the different disturbances that workers have to deal with in their work activity. At present, the vision of safety focused on daily performance and things that go well for safety and health management is facing the new paradigm known as Resilience Engineering. The aim of this study has been to describe the variability in formwork labour on concrete structures in the construction industry and, from there, to find out the resilient attitude of workers to unexpected events that they have experienced during their working lives. For this purpose, a series of semi-structured interviews were carried out with construction employees with extensive experience in formwork labour in Spain by applying the Critical Decision Method. This work has been the first application of the Critical Decision Method in the field of construction and, more specifically, in the execution of structures. The results obtained show that situations categorised as unthought-of are identified to a greater extent than potentially unexpected situations. The identification during these interviews of both expected and unexpected events provides insight into the critical decisions made and actions taken to improve resilience in daily practice in this construction work. From this study, it is clear that it is essential to gain more knowledge about the nature of the human cognitive process in work situations within complex socio-technical systems such as construction sites. This could lead to a more effective design of workplaces in the search for improved human performance.Keywords: resilience engineering, construction industry, unthought-of situations, critical decision method
Procedia PDF Downloads 1303548 Carbon Skimming: Towards an Application to Summarise and Compare Embodied Carbon to Aid Early-Stage Decision Making
Authors: Rivindu Nethmin Bandara Menik Hitihamy Mudiyanselage, Matthias Hank Haeusler, Ben Doherty
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Investors and clients in the Architectural, Engineering and Construction industry find it difficult to understand complex datasets and reports with little to no graphic representation. The stakeholders examined in this paper include designers, design clients and end-users. Communicating embodied carbon information graphically and concisely can aid with decision support early in a building's life cycle. It is essential to create a common visualisation approach as the level of knowledge about embodied carbon varies between stakeholders. The tool, designed in conjunction with Bates Smart, condenses Tally Life Cycle Assessment data to a carbon hot-spotting visualisation, highlighting the sections with the highest amounts of embodied carbon. This allows stakeholders at every stage of a given project to have a better understanding of the carbon implications with minimal effort. It further allows stakeholders to differentiate building elements by their carbon values, which enables the evaluation of the cost-effectiveness of the selected materials at an early stage. To examine and build a decision-support tool, an action-design research methodology of cycles of iterations was used along with precedents of embodied carbon visualising tools. Accordingly, the importance of visualisation and Building Information Modelling are also explored to understand the best format for relaying these results.Keywords: embodied carbon, visualisation, summarisation, data filtering, early-stage decision-making, materiality
Procedia PDF Downloads 593547 Double Diffusive Natural Convection in Horizontal Elliptical Annulus Containing a Fluid-Saturated Porous Medium: Effects of Lewis Number
Authors: Hichem Boulechfar, Mahfoud Djezzar
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Two-dimensional double diffusive natural convection in an annular elliptical space filled with fluid-saturated porous medium, is analyzed by solving numerically the mass balance, momentum, energy and concentration equations, using Darcy's law and Boussinesq approximation. Both walls delimiting the annular space are maintained at two uniform different temperatures and concentrations. The external parameter considered is the Lewis number. For the present work, the heat and mass transfer for natural convection is studied for the case of aiding buoyancies, where the flow is generated in a cooperative mode by both temperature and solutal gradients. The local Nusselt and Sherwood numbers are presented in term of the external parameter.Keywords: double diffusive, natural convection, porous media, elliptical annulus
Procedia PDF Downloads 1823546 Heart Attack Prediction Using Several Machine Learning Methods
Authors: Suzan Anwar, Utkarsh Goyal
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Heart rate (HR) is a predictor of cardiovascular, cerebrovascular, and all-cause mortality in the general population, as well as in patients with cardio and cerebrovascular diseases. Machine learning (ML) significantly improves the accuracy of cardiovascular risk prediction, increasing the number of patients identified who could benefit from preventive treatment while avoiding unnecessary treatment of others. This research examines relationship between the individual's various heart health inputs like age, sex, cp, trestbps, thalach, oldpeaketc, and the likelihood of developing heart disease. Machine learning techniques like logistic regression and decision tree, and Python are used. The results of testing and evaluating the model using the Heart Failure Prediction Dataset show the chance of a person having a heart disease with variable accuracy. Logistic regression has yielded an accuracy of 80.48% without data handling. With data handling (normalization, standardscaler), the logistic regression resulted in improved accuracy of 87.80%, decision tree 100%, random forest 100%, and SVM 100%.Keywords: heart rate, machine learning, SVM, decision tree, logistic regression, random forest
Procedia PDF Downloads 1183545 'Explainable Artificial Intelligence' and Reasons for Judicial Decisions: Why Justifications and Not Just Explanations May Be Required
Authors: Jacquelyn Burkell, Jane Bailey
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Artificial intelligence (AI) solutions deployed within the justice system face the critical task of providing acceptable explanations for decisions or actions. These explanations must satisfy the joint criteria of public and professional accountability, taking into account the perspectives and requirements of multiple stakeholders, including judges, lawyers, parties, witnesses, and the general public. This research project analyzes and integrates two existing literature on explanations in order to propose guidelines for explainable AI in the justice system. Specifically, we review three bodies of literature: (i) explanations of the purpose and function of 'explainable AI'; (ii) the relevant case law, judicial commentary and legal literature focused on the form and function of reasons for judicial decisions; and (iii) the literature focused on the psychological and sociological functions of these reasons for judicial decisions from the perspective of the public. Our research suggests that while judicial ‘reasons’ (arguably accurate descriptions of the decision-making process and factors) do serve similar explanatory functions as those identified in the literature on 'explainable AI', they also serve an important ‘justification’ function (post hoc constructions that justify the decision that was reached). Further, members of the public are also looking for both justification and explanation in reasons for judicial decisions, and that the absence of either feature is likely to contribute to diminished public confidence in the legal system. Therefore, artificially automated judicial decision-making systems that simply attempt to document the process of decision-making are unlikely in many cases to be useful to and accepted within the justice system. Instead, these systems should focus on the post-hoc articulation of principles and precedents that support the decision or action, especially in cases where legal subjects’ fundamental rights and liberties are at stake.Keywords: explainable AI, judicial reasons, public accountability, explanation, justification
Procedia PDF Downloads 1013544 Integrated Marketing Communication to Influencing International Standard Energy Economy Car Buying Decision of Consumers in Bangkok
Authors: Pisit Potjanajaruwit
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The objective of this research was to study the influence of Integrated Marketing Communication on Buying Decision of Consumers in Bangkok. A total of 397 respondents were collected from customers who drive in Bangkok. A questionnaire was utilized as a tool to collect data. Statistics utilized in this research included frequency, percentage, mean, standard deviation, and multiple regression analysis. Data were analyzed by using Statistical Package for the Social Sciences. The findings revealed that the majority of respondents were male with the age between 25-34 years old, hold undergraduate degree, married and stay together. The average income of respondents was between 10,001-20,000 baht. In terms of occupation, the majority worked for private companies. The effect to the Buying Decision of Consumers in Bangkok to including sale promotion with the low interest and discount for an installment, selling by introducing and gave product information through sales persons, public relation by website, direct marketing by annual motor show and advertisement by television media.Keywords: Bangkok metropolis, ECO car, integrated marketing communication, international standard
Procedia PDF Downloads 2823543 Visual Aid and Imagery Ramification on Decision Making: An Exploratory Study Applicable in Emergency Situations
Authors: Priyanka Bharti
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Decades ago designs were based on common sense and tradition, but after an enhancement in visualization technology and research, we are now able to comprehend the cognitive ability involved in the decoding of the visual information. However, many fields in visuals need intense research to deliver an efficient explanation for the events. Visuals are an information representation mode through images, symbols and graphics. It plays an impactful role in decision making by facilitating quick recognition, comprehension, and analysis of a situation. They enhance problem-solving capabilities by enabling the processing of more data without overloading the decision maker. As research proves that, visuals offer an improved learning environment by a factor of 400 compared to textual information. Visual information engages learners at a cognitive level and triggers the imagination, which enables the user to process the information faster (visuals are processed 60,000 times faster in the brain than text). Appropriate information, visualization, and its presentation are known to aid and intensify the decision-making process for the users. However, most literature discusses the role of visual aids in comprehension and decision making during normal conditions alone. Unlike emergencies, in a normal situation (e.g. our day to day life) users are neither exposed to stringent time constraints nor face the anxiety of survival and have sufficient time to evaluate various alternatives before making any decision. An emergency is an unexpected probably fatal real-life situation which may inflict serious ramifications on both human life and material possessions unless corrective measures are taken instantly. The situation demands the exposed user to negotiate in a dynamic and unstable scenario in the absence or lack of any preparation, but still, take swift and appropriate decisions to save life/lives or possessions. But the resulting stress and anxiety restricts cue sampling, decreases vigilance, reduces the capacity of working memory, causes premature closure in evaluating alternative options, and results in task shedding. Limited time, uncertainty, high stakes and vague goals negatively affect cognitive abilities to take appropriate decisions. More so, theory of natural decision making by experts has been understood with far more depth than that of an ordinary user. Therefore, in this study, the author aims to understand the role of visual aids in supporting rapid comprehension to take appropriate decisions during an emergency situation.Keywords: cognition, visual, decision making, graphics, recognition
Procedia PDF Downloads 2443542 Choice Analysis of Ground Access to São Paulo/Guarulhos International Airport Using Adaptive Choice-Based Conjoint Analysis (ACBC)
Authors: Carolina Silva Ansélmo
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Airports are demand-generating poles that affect the flow of traffic around them. The airport access system must be fast, convenient, and adequately planned, considering its potential users. An airport with good ground access conditions can provide the user with a more satisfactory access experience. When several transport options are available, service providers must understand users' preferences and the expected quality of service. The present study focuses on airport access in a comparative scenario between bus, private vehicle, subway, taxi and urban mobility transport applications to São Paulo/Guarulhos International Airport. The objectives are (i) to identify the factors that influence the choice, (ii) to measure Willingness to Pay (WTP), and (iii) to estimate the market share for each modal. The applied method was Adaptive Choice-based Conjoint Analysis (ACBC) technique using Sawtooth Software. Conjoint analysis, rooted in Utility Theory, is a survey technique that quantifies the customer's perceived utility when choosing alternatives. Assessing user preferences provides insights into their priorities for product or service attributes. An additional advantage of conjoint analysis is its requirement for a smaller sample size compared to other methods. Furthermore, ACBC provides valuable insights into consumers' preferences, willingness to pay, and market dynamics, aiding strategic decision-making to provide a better customer experience, pricing, and market segmentation. In the present research, the ACBC questionnaire had the following variables: (i) access time to the boarding point, (ii) comfort in the vehicle, (iii) number of travelers together, (iv) price, (v) supply power, and (vi) type of vehicle. The case study questionnaire reached 213 valid responses considering the scenario of access from the São Paulo city center to São Paulo/Guarulhos International Airport. As a result, the price and the number of travelers are the most relevant attributes for the sample when choosing airport access. The market share of the selection is mainly urban mobility transport applications, followed by buses, private vehicles, taxis and subways.Keywords: adaptive choice-based conjoint analysis, ground access to airport, market share, willingness to pay
Procedia PDF Downloads 523541 A Project Screening System for Energy Enterprise Based on Dempster-Shafer Theory
Authors: Woosik Jang, Seung Heon Han, Seung Won Baek
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Natural gas (NG) is an energy resource in a few countries, and most NG producers do business in politically unstable countries. In addition, as 90% of the LNG market is controlled by a small number of international oil companies (IOCs) and national oil companies (NOCs), entry of latecomers into the market is extremely limited. To meet these challenges, project viability needs to be assessed based on limited information from a project screening perspective. However, the early stages of the project have the following difficulties: (1) What are the factors to consider? (2) How many professionals do you need to decide? (3) How to make the best decision with limited information? To address this problem, this study proposes a model for evaluating LNG project viability based on the Dempster-Shafer theory (DST). A total of 11 indicators for analyzing the gas field, reflecting the characteristics of the LNG industry, and 23 indicators for analyzing the market environment, were identified. The proposed model also evaluates the LNG project based on the survey and provides uncertainty of the results based on DST as well as quantified results. Thus, the proposed model is expected to be able to support the decision-making process of the gas field project using quantitative results as a systematic framework, and it was developed as a stand-alone system to improve its usefulness in practice. Consequently, the amount of information and the mathematical approach are expected to improve the quality and opportunity of decision making for LNG projects for enterprises.Keywords: project screen, energy enterprise, decision support system, Dempster-Shafer theory
Procedia PDF Downloads 3133540 Digital Platform of Crops for Smart Agriculture
Authors: Pascal François Faye, Baye Mor Sall, Bineta Dembele, Jeanne Ana Awa Faye
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In agriculture, estimating crop yields is key to improving productivity and decision-making processes such as financial market forecasting and addressing food security issues. The main objective of this paper is to have tools to predict and improve the accuracy of crop yield forecasts using machine learning (ML) algorithms such as CART , KNN and SVM . We developed a mobile app and a web app that uses these algorithms for practical use by farmers. The tests show that our system (collection and deployment architecture, web application and mobile application) is operational and validates empirical knowledge on agro-climatic parameters in addition to proactive decision-making support. The experimental results obtained on the agricultural data, the performance of the ML algorithms are compared using cross-validation in order to identify the most effective ones following the agricultural data. The proposed applications demonstrate that the proposed approach is effective in predicting crop yields and provides timely and accurate responses to farmers for decision support.Keywords: prediction, machine learning, artificial intelligence, digital agriculture
Procedia PDF Downloads 553539 Classification of Manufacturing Data for Efficient Processing on an Edge-Cloud Network
Authors: Onyedikachi Ulelu, Andrew P. Longstaff, Simon Fletcher, Simon Parkinson
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The widespread interest in 'Industry 4.0' or 'digital manufacturing' has led to significant research requiring the acquisition of data from sensors, instruments, and machine signals. In-depth research then identifies methods of analysis of the massive amounts of data generated before and during manufacture to solve a particular problem. The ultimate goal is for industrial Internet of Things (IIoT) data to be processed automatically to assist with either visualisation or autonomous system decision-making. However, the collection and processing of data in an industrial environment come with a cost. Little research has been undertaken on how to specify optimally what data to capture, transmit, process, and store at various levels of an edge-cloud network. The first step in this specification is to categorise IIoT data for efficient and effective use. This paper proposes the required attributes and classification to take manufacturing digital data from various sources to determine the most suitable location for data processing on the edge-cloud network. The proposed classification framework will minimise overhead in terms of network bandwidth/cost and processing time of machine tool data via efficient decision making on which dataset should be processed at the ‘edge’ and what to send to a remote server (cloud). A fast-and-frugal heuristic method is implemented for this decision-making. The framework is tested using case studies from industrial machine tools for machine productivity and maintenance.Keywords: data classification, decision making, edge computing, industrial IoT, industry 4.0
Procedia PDF Downloads 1553538 Development of Risk-Based Dam Safety Framework in Climate Change Condition for Batu Dam, Malaysia
Authors: Wan Noorul Hafilah Binti Wan Ariffin
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Dam safety management is the crucial infrastructure as dam failure has a catastrophic effect on the community. Dam safety management is the effective framework of key actions and activities for the dam owner to manage the safety of the dam for its entire life cycle. However, maintaining dam safety is a challenging task as there are changes in current dam states. These changes introduce new risks to the dam's safety, which had not been considered when the dam was designed. A new framework has to be developed to adapt to the changes in the dam risk and make the dams resilient. This study proposes a risk-based decision-making adaptation framework for dam safety management. The research focuses on climate change's impact on hydrological situations as it causes floods and damages the dam structure. The risk analysis framework is adopted to improve the dam management strategies. The proposed study encompasses four phases. To start with, measuring the effect by assessing the impact of climate change on embankment dam, the second phase is to analyze the potential embankment dam failures. The third is analyzing the different components of risks related to the dam and, finally, developing a robust decision-making framework.Keywords: climate change, embankment dam, failure, risk-informed decision making
Procedia PDF Downloads 1203537 Wind Velocity Mitigation for Conceptual Design: A Spatial Decision (Support Framework)
Authors: Mohamed Khallaf, Hossein M Rizeei
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Simulating wind pattern behavior over proposed urban features is critical in the early stage of the conceptual design of both architectural and urban disciplines. However, it is typically not possible for designers to explore the impact of wind flow profiles across new urban developments due to a lack of real data and inaccurate estimation of building parameters. Modeling the details of existing and proposed urban features and testing them against wind flows is the missing part of the conceptual design puzzle where architectural and urban discipline can focus. This research aims to develop a spatial decision-support design method utilizing LiDAR, GIS, and performance-based wind simulation technology to mitigate wind-related hazards on a design by simulating alternative design scenarios at the pedestrian level prior to its implementation in Sydney, Australia. The result of the experiment demonstrates the capability of the proposed framework to improve pedestrian comfort in relation to wind profile.Keywords: spatial decision-support design, performance-based wind simulation, LiDAR, GIS
Procedia PDF Downloads 933536 Biological Activities of Species in the Genus Tulbaghia: A Review
Authors: S. Takaidza, M. Pillay, F. Mtunzi
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Since time immemorial, plants have been used by several communities to treat a large number of diseases. Numerous studies on the pharmacology of medicinal plants have been done. Medicinal plants constitute a potential source for the production of new medicines and may complement conventional antimicrobials and probably decrease health costs. Phytochemical compounds in plants are known to be biologically active aiding, for example, as antioxidants and antimicrobials. The overwhelming challenge of drug resistance has resulted in an increasing trend towards using medicinal plants to treat various diseases, especially in developing countries. Species of the genus Tulbaghia has been widely used in traditional medicine to treat various ailments such rheumatism, fits, fever, earache, tuberculosis etc. It is believed that the species possess several therapeutic properties. This paper evaluates some of the biological activities of the genus Tulbaghia. It is evident from current literature that T. violacea is the most promising species. The other species of Tulbaghia still require further studies to ascertain their medicinal potential.Keywords: biological activities, antimicrobial, antioxidant, phytochemicals, tulbaghia
Procedia PDF Downloads 3573535 Sustainable Intensification of Agriculture in Victoria’s Food Bowl: Optimizing Productivity with the use of Decision-Support Tools
Authors: M. Johnson, R. Faggian, V. Sposito
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A participatory and engaged approach is key in connecting agricultural managers to sustainable agricultural systems to support and optimize production in Victoria’s food bowl. A sustainable intensification (SI) approach is well documented globally, but participation rates amongst Victorian farmers is fragmentary, and key outcomes and implementation strategies are poorly understood. Improvement in decision-support management tools and a greater understanding of the productivity gains available upon implementation of SI is necessary. This paper reviews the current understanding and uptake of SI practices amongst farmers in one of Victoria’s premier food producing regions, the Goulburn Broken; and it spatially analyses the potential for this region to adapt to climate change and optimize food production. A Geographical Information Systems (GIS) approach is taken to develop an interactive decision-support tool that can be accessible to on-ground agricultural managers. The tool encompasses multiple criteria analysis (MCA) that identifies factors during the construction phase of the tool, using expert witnesses and regional knowledge, framed within an Analytical Hierarchy Process. Given the complexities of the interrelations between each of the key outcomes, this participatory approach, in which local realities and factors inform the key outcomes and help to strategies for a particular region, results in a robust strategy for sustainably intensifying production in key food producing regions. The creation of an interactive, locally embedded, decision-support management and education tool can help to close the gap between farmer knowledge and production, increase on-farm adoption of sustainable farming strategies and techniques, and optimize farm productivity.Keywords: agriculture, decision-support management tool, Geographic Information System, GIS, sustainable intensification
Procedia PDF Downloads 1393534 A Multigranular Linguistic ARAS Model in Group Decision Making
Authors: Wiem Daoud Ben Amor, Luis Martínez López, Hela Moalla Frikha
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Most of the multi-criteria group decision making (MCGDM) problems dealing with qualitative criteria require consideration of the large background of expert information. It is common that experts have different degrees of knowledge for giving their alternative assessments according to criteria. So, it seems logical that they use different evaluation scales to express their judgment, i.e., multi granular linguistic scales. In this context, we propose the extension of the classical additive ratio assessment (ARAS) method to the case of a hierarchical linguistics term for managing multi granular linguistic scales in uncertain contexts where uncertainty is modeled by means in linguistic information. The proposed approach is called the extended hierarchical linguistics-ARAS method (ARAS-ELH). Within the ARAS-ELH approach, the DM can diagnose the results (the ranking of the alternatives) in a decomposed style, i.e., not only at one level of the hierarchy but also at the intermediate ones. Also, the developed approach allows a feedback transformation i.e the collective final results of all experts able to be transformed at any level of the extended linguistic hierarchy that each expert has previously used. Therefore, the ARAS-ELH technique makes it easier for decision-makers to understand the results. Finally, An MCGDM case study is given to illustrate the proposed approach.Keywords: additive ratio assessment, extended hierarchical linguistic, multi-criteria group decision making problems, multi granular linguistic contexts
Procedia PDF Downloads 1863533 Developing a Decision-Making Tool for Prioritizing Green Building Initiatives
Authors: Tayyab Ahmad, Gerard Healey
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Sustainability in built environment sector is subject to many development constraints. Building projects are developed under different requirements of deliverables which makes each project unique. For an owner organization, i.e., a higher-education institution, involved in a significant building stock, it is important to prioritize some of the sustainability initiatives over the others in order to align the sustainable building development with organizational goals. The point-based green building rating tools i.e. Green Star, LEED, BREEAM are becoming increasingly popular and are well-acknowledged worldwide for verifying a sustainable development. It is imperative to synthesize a multi-criteria decision-making tool that can capitalize on the point-based methodology of rating systems while customizing the sustainable development of building projects according to the individual requirements and constraints of the client organization. A multi-criteria decision-making tool for the University of Melbourne is developed that builds on the action-learning and experience of implementing Green Buildings at the University of Melbourne. The tool evaluates the different sustainable building initiatives based on the framework of Green Star rating tool of Green Building Council of Australia. For each different sustainability initiative the decision-making tool makes an assessment based on at least five performance criteria including the ease with which a sustainability initiative can be achieved and the potential of a sustainability initiative to enhance project objectives, reduce life-cycle costs, enhance University’s reputation, and increase the confidence in quality construction. The use of a weighted aggregation mathematical model in the proposed tool can have a considerable role in the decision-making process of a Green Building project by indexing the Green Building initiatives in terms of organizational priorities. The index value of each initiative will be based on its alignment with some of the key performance criteria. The usefulness of the decision-making tool is validated by conducting structured interviews with some of the key stakeholders involved in the development of sustainable building projects at the University of Melbourne. The proposed tool is realized to help a client organization in deciding that within limited resources which sustainability initiatives and practices are more important to be pursued than others.Keywords: higher education institution, multi-criteria decision-making tool, organizational values, prioritizing sustainability initiatives, weighted aggregation model
Procedia PDF Downloads 2013532 Fuzzy Analytic Hierarchy Process for Determination of Supply Chain Performance Evaluation Criteria
Authors: Ibrahim Cil, Onur Kurtcu, H. Ibrahim Demir, Furkan Yener, Yusuf. S. Turkan, Muharrem Unver, Ramazan Evren
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Fuzzy AHP (Analytic Hierarchy Process) method is decision-making way at the end of integrating the current AHP method with fuzzy structure. In this study, the processes of production planning, inventory management and purchasing department of a system were analysed and were requested to decide the performance criteria of each area. At this point, the current work processes were analysed by various decision-makers and comparing each criteria by giving points according to 1-9 scale were completed. The criteria were listed in order to their weights by using Fuzzy AHP approach and top three performance criteria of each department were determined. After that, the performance criteria of supply chain consisting of three departments were asked to determine. The processes of each department were compared by decision-makers at the point of building the supply chain performance system and getting the performance criteria. According to the results, the criteria of performance system of supply chain by using Fuzzy AHP were determined for which will be used in the supply chain performance system in the future.Keywords: AHP, fuzzy, performance evaluation, supply chain
Procedia PDF Downloads 3133531 Reflections on Opportunities and Challenges for Systems Engineering
Authors: Ali E. Abbas
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This paper summarizes some of the discussions that occurred in a workshop in West Virginia, U.S.A which was sponsored by the National Science Foundation (NSF) in February 2016. The goal of the workshop was to explore the opportunities and challenges for applying systems engineering in large enterprises, and some of the issues that still persist. The main topics of the discussion included challenges with elaboration and abstraction in large systems, interfacing physical and social systems, and the need for axiomatic frameworks for large enterprises. We summarize these main points of discussion drawing parallels with decision making in organizations to instigate research in these discussion areas.Keywords: decision analysis, systems engineering, framing, value creation
Procedia PDF Downloads 303