Search results for: call drop probability

Authors: S. Zhang, L. Zhang, X. Chen

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Due to the large uncertainty on the mechanical properties of FRP (fibre reinforced plastic), the reliability evaluation of FRP structures are currently receiving much attention in industry. However, possible statistical correlation between ply mechanical properties has been so far overlooked, and they are mostly assumed to be independent random variables. In this study, the statistical correlation between ply mechanical properties of uni-directional and plain weave composite is firstly analyzed by a combination of Monte-Carlo simulation and finite element modeling of the FRP unit cell. Large linear correlation coefficients between the in-plane mechanical properties are observed, and the correlation coefficients are heavily dependent on the uncertainty of the fibre volume ratio. It is also observed that the correlation coefficients related to Poisson’s ratio are negative while others are positive. To experimentally achieve the statistical correlation coefficients between in-plane mechanical properties of FRP, all concerned in-plane mechanical properties of the same specimen needs to be known. In-plane shear modulus of FRP is experimentally derived by the approach suggested in the ASTM standard D5379M. Tensile tests are conducted using the same specimens used for the shear test, and due to non-uniform tensile deformation a modification factor is derived by a finite element modeling. Digital image correlation is adopted to characterize the specimen non-uniform deformation. The preliminary experimental results show a good agreement with the numerical analysis on the statistical correlation. Then, failure probability of laminate plates is calculated in cases considering and not considering the statistical correlation, using the Monte-Carlo and Markov Chain Monte-Carlo methods, respectively. The results highlight the importance of accounting for the statistical correlation between ply mechanical properties to achieve accurate failure probability of laminate plates. Furthermore, it is found that for the multi-layer laminate plate, the statistical correlation between the ply elastic properties significantly affects the laminate reliability while the effect of statistical correlation between the ply strength is minimal.

Keywords: failure probability, FRP, reliability, statistical correlation

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Authors: V. Kumar, K. Jha

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The present study is done to explore design modifications of the vortex finder, as it has a significant effect on the cyclone separator performance. It is evident that modifications of the vortex finder improve the performance of the cyclone separator significantly. The study conducted strives to improve the overall performance of cyclone separators by utilizing a converging-diverging (CD) vortex finder instead of the traditional uniform diameter vortex finders. The velocity and pressure fields inside a Stairmand cyclone separator with body diameter 0.29m and vortex finder diameter 0.1305m are calculated. The commercial software, Ansys Fluent v14.0 is used to simulate the flow field in a uniform diameter cyclone and six cyclones modified with CD vortex finders. Reynolds stress model is used to simulate the effects of turbulence on the fluid and particulate phases, discrete phase model is used to calculate the particle trajectories. The performance of the modified vortex finders is compared with the traditional vortex finder. The effects of the lengths of the converging and diverging sections, the throat diameter and the end diameters of the convergent divergent section are also studied to achieve enhanced performance. The pressure and velocity fields inside the vortex finder are presented by means of contour plots and velocity vectors and changes in the flow pattern due to variation of the geometrical variables are also analysed. Results indicate that a convergent-divergent vortex finder is capable of decreasing the pressure drop than that achieved through a uniform diameter vortex finder. It is also observed that the end diameters of the CD vortex finder, the throat diameter and the length of the diverging part of the vortex finder have a significant impact on the cyclone separator performance. Increase in the lower diameter of the vortex finder by 66% results in 11.5% decrease in the dimensionless pressure drop (Euler number) with 5.8% decrease in separation efficiency. Whereas 50% decrease in the throat diameter gives 5.9% increase in the Euler number with 10.2% increase in the separation efficiency and increasing the length of the diverging part gives 10.28% increase in the Euler number with 5.74% increase in the separation efficiency. Increasing the upper diameter of the CD vortex finder is seen to produce an adverse effect on the performance as it increases the pressure drop significantly and decreases the separation efficiency. Increase in length of the converging is not seen to affect the performance significantly. From the present study, it is concluded that convergent-divergent vortex finders can be used in place of uniform diameter vortex finders to achieve a better cyclone separator performance.

Keywords: convergent-divergent vortex finder, cyclone separator, discrete phase modeling, Reynolds stress model

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Authors: Ricardo Mendoza, Jason Briceño, Juan F. Santa, Gabriel Peluffo, Mauricio Márquez, Beatriz Cardozo, Carlos Gutiérrez

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The most common controlled method to obtain impact strength of composites materials is performing a Charpy Impact Test which consists of a pendulum with calibrated mass and length released from a known height. In fact, composites components experience impact events in normal operations such as when a tool drops or a foreign object strikes it. These events are categorized into low velocity impact (LVI) which typically occurs at velocities below 10m/s. In this study, the major aim was to calculate the absorbed energy during the impact. Tests were performed on three types of composite panels: fiberglass laminated panels, coir fiber reinforced polyester and coir fiber reinforced polyester subjected to water immersion for 48 hours. Coir fibers were obtained in local plantations of the Caribbean coast of Colombia. They were alkali treated in 5% aqueous NaOH solution for 2h periods. Three type of shape impactors were used on drop-weight impact test including hemispherical, ogive and pointed. Failure mechanisms and failure modes of specimens were examined using an optical microscope. Results demonstrate a reduction in absorbed energy correlated with the increment of water absorption of the panels. For each level of absorbed energy, it was possible to associate a different fracture state. This study compares results of energy absorbed obtained from two impact test methods.

Keywords: coir fiber, polyester composites, low velocity impact, Charpy impact test, drop-weight impact test

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Authors: Zhilin Wang, Zhihao Zheng, Linxin Liu

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This study proposes a low-code model-building approach that aims to simplify the development and deployment of artificial intelligence (AI) models. With an intuitive way to drag and drop and connect components, users can easily build complex models and integrate multiple algorithms for training. After the training is completed, the system automatically generates a callable model service API. This method not only lowers the technical threshold of AI development and improves development efficiency but also enhances the flexibility of algorithm integration and simplifies the deployment process of models. The core strength of this method lies in its ease of use and efficiency. Users do not need to have a deep programming background and can complete the design and implementation of complex models with a simple drag-and-drop operation. This feature greatly expands the scope of AI technology, allowing more non-technical people to participate in the development of AI models. At the same time, the method performs well in algorithm integration, supporting many different types of algorithms to work together, which further improves the performance and applicability of the model. In the experimental part, we performed several performance tests on the method. The results show that compared with traditional model construction methods, this method can make more efficient use, save computing resources, and greatly shorten the model training time. In addition, the system-generated model service interface has been optimized for high availability and scalability, which can adapt to the needs of different application scenarios.

Keywords: low-code, model building, artificial intelligence, algorithm integration, model deployment

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Authors: Mahmoud Nabilu

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The present study explored the effect of using Mobile listening applications on developing listening skills by Iranian intermediate EFL learners. Fifty male intermediate English learners whose age range was between 15 and 20, participated in the study. The participants were placed in two groups on the basis of their scores on a placement test. Therefore, the participants of the study were homogenized in terms of general proficiency, and groups were assigned as one experimental group and one control group. The experimental group was instructed by the treatment which was using mobile applications to develop their listening skills while the control group received traditional methods. The research data were obtained from the 40-item multiple-choice tests as a pre-test and a post-test. The results of the t-test clearly revealed that the learners in the experimental group performed better in the post-test than the pre-test. This implies that using a mobile application for developing listening skills as a treatment was effective in helping the language learners perform better on post-test. However, a statistically significant difference was found between the post-tests scores of the two groups. The mean of the experimental group was greater compared to the control group. The participants were Iranian and from an Iranian Language Institute, so care should be taken while generalizing the results to the learners of other nationalities. However, in the researcher's view, the findings of this study have valuable implications for teachers and learners, methodologists and syllabus designers, linguists and MALL/CALL (mobile/computer-assisted language learning) experts. Using the result of the present paper is an aim of raising the consciousness of a better technique of developing listening skills in order to make language learning more efficient for the learners.

Keywords: Mobile listening applications, intermediate EFL learners, MALL, CALL

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Authors: B. F. Espiritu

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This paper examines the resistance of the Lumad people, the indigenous peoples in Mindanao, Southern Philippines, and of environmental and human rights activists to the Philippine government's neoliberal policies and their call for justice and a new economic paradigm that will uphold peoples' rights and environmental protection in two alternative media online sites. The study contributes to the body of knowledge on indigenous resistance to neoliberal globalization and the quest for a new economic paradigm that upholds social justice for the marginalized in society, empathy and compassion for those who depend on the land for their survival, and environmental sustainability. The study analyzes the discourses in selected news articles from Davao Today and Kalikasan (translated to English as 'Nature') People's Network for the Environment’s statements and advocacy articles for the Lumad and the environment from 2018 to February 2020. The study reveals that the alternative media news articles and the advocacy articles contain statements that expose the oppression and violation of human rights of the Lumad people, farmers, government environmental workers, and environmental activists as shown in their killings, illegal arrest and detention, displacement of the indigenous peoples, destruction of their schools by the military and paramilitary groups, and environmental plunder and destruction with the government's permit for the entry and operation of extractive and agribusiness industries in the Lumad ancestral lands. Anchored on Christian Fuch's theory of alternative media as critical media and Bert Cammaerts' theorization of alternative media as counterhegemonic media that are part of civil society and form a third voice between state media and commercial media, the study reveals the counterhegemonic discourses of the news and advocacy articles that oppose the dominant economic system of neoliberalism which oppresses the people who depend on the land for their survival. Furthermore, the news and advocacy articles seek to advance social struggles that transform society towards the realization of cooperative potentials or a new economic paradigm that upholds economic democracy, where the local people, including the indigenous people, are economically empowered their environment and protected towards the realization of self-sustaining communities. The study highlights the call for justice, empathy, and compassion for both the people and the environment and the need for a new economic paradigm wherein indigenous peoples and local communities are empowered towards becoming self-sustaining communities in a sustainable environment.

Keywords: alternative media, environmental sustainability, human rights, indigenous resistance

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Authors: Andre Slonopas, Zona Kostic, Warren Thompson

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Obfuscation is one of the most useful tools to prevent network compromise. Previous research focused on the obfuscation of the network communications between external-facing edge devices. This work proposes the use of two edge devices, external and internal facing, which communicate via private IPv4 addresses in a software-defined pseudo-random IP hopping. This methodology does not require additional IP addresses and/or resources to implement. Statistical analyses demonstrate that the hopping surface must be at least 1e3 IP addresses in size with a broad standard deviation to minimize the possibility of coincidence of monitored and communication IPs. The probability of breaking the hopping algorithm requires a collection of at least 1e6 samples, which for large hopping surfaces will take years to collect. The probability of dropped packets is controlled via memory buffers and the frequency of hops and can be reduced to levels acceptable for video streaming. This methodology provides an impenetrable layer of security ideal for information and supervisory control and data acquisition systems.

Keywords: moving target defense, cybersecurity, network security, hopping randomization, software defined network, network security theory

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Authors: Valerii Dashuk

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The usage of the confidence intervals in economics and econometrics is widespread. To be able to investigate a random variable more thoroughly, joint tests are applied. One of such examples is joint mean-variance test. A new approach for testing such hypotheses and constructing confidence sets is introduced. Exploring both the value of the random variable and its deviation with the help of this technique allows checking simultaneously the shift and the probability of that shift (i.e., portfolio risks). Another application is based on the normal distribution, which is fully defined by mean and variance, therefore could be tested using the introduced approach. This method is based on the difference of probability density functions. The starting point is two sets of normal distribution parameters that should be compared (whether they may be considered as identical with given significance level). Then the absolute difference in probabilities at each 'point' of the domain of these distributions is calculated. This measure is transformed to a function of cumulative distribution functions and compared to the critical values. Critical values table was designed from the simulations. The approach was compared with the other techniques for the univariate case. It differs qualitatively and quantitatively in easiness of implementation, computation speed, accuracy of the critical region (theoretical vs. real significance level). Stable results when working with outliers and non-normal distributions, as well as scaling possibilities, are also strong sides of the method. The main advantage of this approach is the possibility to extend it to infinite-dimension case, which was not possible in the most of the previous works. At the moment expansion to 2-dimensional state is done and it allows to test jointly up to 5 parameters. Therefore the derived technique is equivalent to classic tests in standard situations but gives more efficient alternatives in nonstandard problems and on big amounts of data.

Keywords: confidence set, cumulative distribution function, hypotheses testing, normal distribution, probability density function

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Authors: Nouf Aljohani

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The research project described in this presentation focuses on designing and evaluating oral tasks related to students’ needs and levels to foster communication and negotiation of meaning for a group of female Saudi university students. The significance of the current research project lies in its contribution to determining the usefulness of synchronous technology-mediated interactive group discussion in improving different speaking strategies through using synchronous technology. Also, it discovers how to optimize learning outcomes, expand evaluation for online learning tasks and engaging students’ experience in evaluating synchronous interactive tools and tasks. The researcher used SpeakApps, a synchronous technology, that allows the students to practice oral interaction outside the classroom. Such a course of action was considered necessary due to low English proficiency among Saudi students. According to the author's knowledge, the main factor that causes poor speaking skills is that students do not have sufficient time to communicate outside English language classes. Further, speaking and listening course contents are not well designed to match the Saudi learning context. The methodology included designing speaking tasks to match the educational setting; a CALL framework for designing and evaluating tasks; participant involvement in evaluating these tasks in each online session; and an investigation of the factors that led to the successful implementation of Task-based Language Teaching (TBLT) and using SpeakApps. The analysis and data were drawn from the technology acceptance model surveys, a group interview, teachers’ and students’ weekly reflections, and discourse analysis of students’ interactions.

Keywords: CALL evaluation, synchronous technology, speaking skill, task-based language teaching

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Authors: Valery Yakubovich, Shuping wu

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Organization theorists have long claimed that organizational innovations are nontechnological, in part because they are unpatentable. The claim rests on the assumption that organizational innovations are abstract ideas embodied in persons and contexts rather than in context-free practical tools. However, over the last three decades, organizational knowledge has been increasingly embodied in digital tools which, in principle, can be patented. To provide the first empirical evidence regarding the patentability of organizational innovations, we trained two machine learning algorithms to identify a population of 205,434 patent applications for organizational technologies (OrgTech) and, among them, 141,285 applications that use organizational innovations accumulated over the 20th century. Our event history analysis of the probability of patenting an OrgTech invention shows that ideas from organizational innovations decrease the probability of patent allowance unless they describe a practical tool. We conclude that the present-day digital transformation places organizational innovations in the realm of high tech and turns the debate about organizational technologies into the challenge of designing practical organizational tools that embody big ideas about organizing. We outline an agenda for patent-based research on OrgTech as an emerging phenomenon.

Keywords: organizational innovation, organizational technology, high tech, patents, machine learning

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Authors: Daniel Etim Jacob, Samuel Onadeko, Edem A. Eniang, Imaobong Ufot Nelson

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This paper examined determinants of income diversification among households in support zones communities of national parks in Nigeria. This involved the use household data collected through questionnaires administered randomly among 1009 household heads in the study area. The data obtained were analyzed using probability and non-probability statistical analysis such as regression and analysis of variance to test for mean difference between parks. The result obtained indicates that majority of the household heads were male (92.57%0, between the age class of 21 – 40 years (44.90%), had non-formal education (38.16%), were farmers (65.21%), owned land (95.44%), with a household size of 1 – 5 (36.67%) and an annual income range of ₦401,000 - ₦600,000 (24.58%). Mean Simpson index of diversity showed a general low (0.375) level of income diversification among the households. Income, age, off-farm dependence, education, household size and occupation where significant (p<0.01) factors that affected households’ income diversification. The study recommends improvement in the existing infrastructures and social capital in the communities as avenues to improve the livelihood and ensure positive conservation behaviors in the study area.

Keywords: income diversification, protected area, livelihood, poverty, Nigeria

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Authors: Ahmed Abdullah Ahmed

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The task of recognizing the writer of a handwritten text has been an attractive research problem in the document analysis and recognition community with applications in handwriting forensics, paleography, document examination and handwriting recognition. This research presents an automatic method for writer recognition from digitized images of unconstrained writings. Although a great effort has been made by previous studies to come out with various methods, their performances, especially in terms of accuracy, are fallen short, and room for improvements is still wide open. The proposed technique employs optimal codebook based writer characterization where each writing sample is represented by a set of features computed from two codebooks, beginning and ending. Unlike most of the classical codebook based approaches which segment the writing into graphemes, this study is based on fragmenting a particular area of writing which are beginning and ending strokes. The proposed method starting with contour detection to extract significant information from the handwriting and the curve fragmentation is then employed to categorize the handwriting into Beginning and Ending zones into small fragments. The similar fragments of beginning strokes are grouped together to create Beginning cluster, and similarly, the ending strokes are grouped to create the ending cluster. These two clusters lead to the development of two codebooks (beginning and ending) by choosing the center of every similar fragments group. Writings under study are then represented by computing the probability of occurrence of codebook patterns. The probability distribution is used to characterize each writer. Two writings are then compared by computing distances between their respective probability distribution. The evaluations carried out on ICFHR standard dataset of 206 writers using Beginning and Ending codebooks separately. Finally, the Ending codebook achieved the highest identification rate of 98.23%, which is the best result so far on ICFHR dataset.

Keywords: off-line text-independent writer identification, feature extraction, codebook, fragments

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Authors: Raymond Awinbilla

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The call for tree planting has long been set in motion by the government of Ghana. The Forestry Commission encourages plantation development through numerous interventions including formulating policies and enacting legislations. However, forest policies have failed and that has generated a major concern over the vast gap between the intentions of national policies and the realities established. This study addresses three objectives;1) Assessing the farmers' response and contribution to the tree planting initiative, 2) Identifying socio-economic factors hindering the development of smallholder plantations as a livelihood strategy, and 3) Determining the level of support available for smallholder tree growers and the factors influencing it. The field work was done in 12 farming communities in Ghana. The article illuminates that farmers have responded to the call for tree planting and have planted both exotic and indigenous tree species. Farmers have converted 17.2% (369.48ha) of their total land size into plantations and have no problem with land tenure. Operations and marketing constraints include lack of funds for operations, delay in payment, low price of wood, manipulation of price by buyers, documentation by buyers, and no ready market for harvesting wood products. Environmental institutions encourage tree planting; the only exception is with the Lands Commission. Support availed to farmers includes capacity building in silvicultural practices, organisation of farmers, linkage to markets and finance. Efforts by the Government of Ghana to enhance forest resources in the country could rely on the input of local populations.

Keywords: livelihood strategy, marketing constraints, environmental institutions, silvicultural practices

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Authors: Ibrahim Turfanda, Soniya Rai, Karan Vadher

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Objectives— The study aims to compare real-world adherence to and persistence with dulaglutide and liraglutide in patients with type 2 diabetes (T2D) initiating treatment in UAE. Methods— This was a retrospective, non-interventional study (observation period: 01 March 2017–31 August 2019) using the UAE Dubai e-Claims database. Included: adult patients initiating dulaglutide/liraglutide 01 September 2017–31 August 2018 (index period) with: ≥1 claim for T2D in the 6 months before index date (ID); ≥1 claim for dulaglutide/liraglutide during index period; and continuous medical enrolment for ≥6 months before and ≥12 months after ID. Key endpoints, assessed 3/6/12 months after ID: adherence to treatment (proportion of days covered [PDC; PDC ≥80% considered ‘adherent’], per-group mean±standard deviation [SD] PDC); and persistence (number of continuous therapy days from ID until discontinuation [i.e., >45 days gap] or end of observation period). Patients initiating dulaglutide/liraglutide were propensity score matched (1:1) based on baseline characteristics. Between-group comparison of adherence was analysed using the McNemar test (α=0.025). Persistence was analysed using Kaplan–Meier estimates with log-rank tests (α=0.025) for between-group comparisons. This study presents 12-month outcomes. Results— Following propensity score matching, 263 patients were included in each group. Mean±SD PDC for all patients at 12 months was significantly higher in the dulaglutide versus the liraglutide group (dulaglutide=0.48±0.30, liraglutide=0.39±0.28, p=0.0002). The proportion of adherent patients favored dulaglutide (dulaglutide=20.2%, liraglutide=12.9%, p=0.0302), as did the probability of being adherent to treatment (odds ratio [97.5% CI]: 1.70 [0.99, 2.91]; p=0.03). Proportion of persistent patients also favoured dulaglutide (dulaglutide=15.2%, liraglutide=9.1%, p=0.0528), as did the probability of discontinuing treatment 12 months after ID (p=0.027). Conclusions— Based on the UAE Dubai e-Claims database data, dulaglutide initiators exhibited significantly greater adherence in terms of mean PDC versus liraglutide initiators. The proportion of adherent patients and the probability of being adherent favored the dulaglutide group, as did treatment persistence.

Keywords: adherence, dulaglutide, effectiveness, liraglutide, persistence

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Authors: Donghun Jeong, Somyoung Shin, Yeoil Yun

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A large-scale traffic accident refers to an accident in which more than three people die or more than thirty people are dead or injured. In order to prevent a large-scale traffic accident from causing a big loss of lives or establish effective improvement measures, it is important to analyze accident situations in-depth and understand the effects of major accident variables on an accident. This study aims to analyze the contribution of individual accident variables to accident results, based on the accurate reconstruction of traffic accidents using PC-Crash’s Multi-Body, which is an accident reconstruction program, and simulation of each scenario. Multi-Body system of PC-Crash accident reconstruction program is used for multi-body accident reconstruction that shows motions in diverse directions that were not approached previously. MB System is to design and reproduce a form of body, which shows realistic motions, using several bodies. Targeting the 'freight truck cargo drop accident around the Changwon Tunnel' that happened in November 2017, this study conducted a simulation of the freight truck cargo drop accident and analyzed the contribution of individual accident majors. Then on the basis of the driving speed, cargo load, and stacking method, six scenarios were devised. The simulation analysis result displayed that the freight car was driven at a speed of 118km/h(speed limit: 70km/h) right before the accident, carried 196 oil containers with a weight of 7,880kg (maximum load: 4,600kg) and was not fully equipped with anchoring equipment that could prevent a drop of cargo. The vehicle speed, cargo load, and cargo anchoring equipment were major accident variables, and the accident contribution analysis results of individual variables are as follows. When the freight car only obeyed the speed limit, the scattering distance of oil containers decreased by 15%, and the number of dropped oil containers decreased by 39%. When the freight car only obeyed the cargo load, the scattering distance of oil containers decreased by 5%, and the number of dropped oil containers decreased by 34%. When the freight car obeyed both the speed limit and cargo load, the scattering distance of oil containers fell by 38%, and the number of dropped oil containers fell by 64%. The analysis result of each scenario revealed that the overspeed and excessive cargo load of the freight car contributed to the dispersion of accident damage; in the case of a truck, which did not allow a fall of cargo, there was a different type of accident when driven too fast and carrying excessive cargo load, and when the freight car obeyed the speed limit and cargo load, there was the lowest possibility of causing an accident.

Keywords: accident reconstruction, large-scale traffic accident, PC-Crash, MB system

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Authors: Jean-François Caron

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The current attempts to develop what we can call 'super soldiers' are problematic in many regards. This is what this text will try to explore by concentrating primarily on the repercussions of this technology and medical research on the physical and psychological integrity of soldiers. It argues that medicines or technologies may affect soldiers’ psychological and mental features and deprive them of their capacity to reflect upon their actions as autonomous subjects and that such a possibility entails serious moral as well as judicial consequences.

Keywords: military research, super soldiers, involuntary intoxication, criminal responsibility

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Authors: Haj Najafi Leila, Tehranizadeh Mohsen

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Dependencies between diverse factors involved in probabilistic seismic loss evaluation are recognized to be an imperative issue in acquiring accurate loss estimates. Dependencies among component damage costs could be taken into account considering two partial distinct states of independent or perfectly-dependent for component damage states; however, in our best knowledge, there is no available procedure to take account of loss dependencies in story level. This paper attempts to present a method called "modal cost superposition method" for decoupling story damage costs subjected to earthquake ground motions dealt with closed form differential equations between damage cost and engineering demand parameters which should be solved in complex system considering all stories' cost equations by the means of the introduced "substituted matrixes of mass and stiffness". Costs are treated as probabilistic variables with definite statistic factors of median and standard deviation amounts and a presumed probability distribution. To supplement the proposed procedure and also to display straightforwardness of its application, one benchmark study has been conducted. Acceptable compatibility has been proven for the estimated damage costs evaluated by the new proposed modal and also frequently used stochastic approaches for entire building; however, in story level, insufficiency of employing modification factor for incorporating occurrence probability dependencies between stories has been revealed due to discrepant amounts of dependency between damage costs of different stories. Also, more dependency contribution in occurrence probability of loss could be concluded regarding more compatibility of loss results in higher stories than the lower ones, whereas reduction in incorporation portion of cost modes provides acceptable level of accuracy and gets away from time consuming calculations including some limited number of cost modes in high mode situation.

Keywords: dependency, story-cost, cost modes, engineering demand parameter

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Authors: Deepti Kohli, Meeta Keswani Mehra

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The paper develops a theoretical model of electoral competition with purely opportunistic candidates and a uni-dimensional policy using the probability voting approach while focusing on the aspect of lobby formation to analyze the inherent complex interactions between centripetal and centrifugal forces and their effects on equilibrium policy platforms. There exist three types of agents, namely, Left-wing, Moderate and Right-wing who comprise of the total voting population. Also, it is assumed that the Left and Right agents are free to initiate a lobby of their choice. If initiated, these lobbies generate donations which in turn can be contributed to one (or both) electoral candidates in order to influence them to implement the lobby’s preferred policy. Four different lobby formation scenarios have been considered: no lobby formation, only Left, only Right and both Left and Right. The equilibrium policy platforms, amount of individual donations by agents to their respective lobbies and the contributions offered to the electoral candidates have been solved for under each of the above four cases. Since it is assumed that the agents cannot coordinate each other’s actions during the lobby formation stage, there exists a probability with which a lobby would be formed, which is also solved for in the model. The results indicate that the policy platforms of the two electoral candidates converge completely under the cases of no lobby and both (extreme) formations but diverge under the cases of only one (Left or Right) lobby formation. This is because in the case of no lobby being formed, only the centripetal forces (emerging from the election-winning aspect) are present while in the case of both extreme (Left-wing and Right-wing) lobbies being formed, centrifugal forces (emerging from the lobby formation aspect) also arise but cancel each other out, again resulting in a pure policy convergence phenomenon. In contrast, in case of only one lobby being formed, both centripetal and centrifugal forces interact strategically, leading the two electoral candidates to choose completely different policy platforms in equilibrium. Additionally, it is found that in equilibrium, while the donation by a specific agent type increases with the formation of both lobbies in comparison to when only one lobby is formed, the probability of implementation of the policy being advocated by that lobby group falls.

Keywords: electoral competition, equilibrium policy platforms, lobby formation, opportunistic candidates

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Authors: Mumtaz Ali Baloch

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This article aims at to review the policies and gaps including the socioeconomic and institutional factors that affected the enrollment of disabled children and caused drop-outs. It provides insights to scrutinize the gaps in policies, socioeconomic, and institutional factors with the specific concern in enrollment and drop out of disabled children in Pakistan, and Balochistan in particular. The findings of this study revealed that the old-age centralized policies and a number of socio-economic and institutional factors seemed to have significantly affected the enrollment and quality education in the case of physically disabled children. There were only a few schools functional in entire Balochistan. For example, an entire province (Balochistan) there are only two schools for disabled children, established in Quetta city. In the other 31 districts, an estimated population of 300,000 people of each district there were no schools for the disabled children. The findings of this study revealed that there is a great distinction between the policy and practice in the case of physically disabled children in Quetta, Balochistan. Consequently, such children seemed to have been out of schools. Dropout after the class eighth grade is almost 100%, as there are no high schools available for physically/disabled children, in Balochistan. The concerned organizations and authorities need to develop and ratify specific policies, provide required) facilities to the schools including sufficient budget, streamline the academic planning, and an effective monitoring and evaluation system. Only awareness and motivation could not help in improving the enrollment rate and decreasing the dropout in the case of physically disabled children. There is an urgent need to provide the required facilities to the schools. Almost all students needed assistive equipment, effective physical therapy as well as regular medical facilities. Such measures can improve the enrolment and rehabilitation of children.

Keywords: education policy, practices, physically disabled children, challenges, Balochistan, Pakistan

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Authors: Sara Sallam, Mohamed Taqi, Naoual Belouaggadia

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Solar thermal power plants using parabolic trough collectors (PTC) are currently a powerful technology for generating electricity. Most of these solar power plants use thermal oils as heat transfer fluid. The latter is heated in the solar field and transfers the heat absorbed in an oil-water heat exchanger for the production of steam driving the turbines of the power plant. Currently, we are seeking to develop PTCs with direct steam generation (DSG). This process consists of circulating water under pressure in the receiver tube to generate steam directly into the solar loop. This makes it possible to reduce the investment and maintenance costs of the PTCs (the oil-water exchangers are removed) and to avoid the environmental risks associated with the use of thermal oils. The pressure drops in these systems are an important parameter to ensure their proper operation. The determination of these losses is complex because of the presence of the two phases, and most often we limit ourselves to describing them by models using empirical correlations. A comparison of these models with experimental data was performed. Our calculations focused on the evolution of the pressure of the liquid-vapor mixture along the receiver tube of a PTC-DSG for pressure values and inlet flow rates ranging respectively from 3 to 10 MPa, and from 0.4 to 0.6 kg/s. The comparison of the numerical results with experience allows us to demonstrate the validity of some models according to the pressures and the flow rates of entry in the PTC-DSG receiver tube. The analysis of these two parameters’ effects on the evolution of the pressure along the receiving tub, shows that the increase of the inlet pressure and the decrease of the flow rate lead to minimal pressure losses.

Keywords: direct steam generation, parabolic trough collectors, Ppressure drop, empirical models

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Authors: Shivdayal Patel, Suhail Ahmad

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Safety assurance and failure prediction of composite material component of an offshore structure due to low velocity impact is essential for associated risk assessment. It is important to incorporate uncertainties associated with material properties and load due to an impact. Likelihood of this hazard causing a chain of failure events plays an important role in risk assessment. The material properties of composites mostly exhibit a scatter due to their in-homogeneity and anisotropic characteristics, brittleness of the matrix and fiber and manufacturing defects. In fact, the probability of occurrence of such a scenario is due to large uncertainties arising in the system. Probabilistic finite element analysis of composite plates due to low-velocity impact is carried out considering uncertainties of material properties and initial impact velocity. Impact-induced damage of composite plate is a probabilistic phenomenon due to a wide range of uncertainties arising in material and loading behavior. A typical failure crack initiates and propagates further into the interface causing de-lamination between dissimilar plies. Since individual crack in the ply is difficult to track. The progressive damage model is implemented in the FE code by a user-defined material subroutine (VUMAT) to overcome these problems. The limit state function is accordingly established while the stresses in the lamina are such that the limit state function (g(x)>0). The Gaussian process response surface method is presently adopted to determine the probability of failure. A comparative study is also carried out for different combination of impactor masses and velocities. The sensitivity based probabilistic design optimization procedure is investigated to achieve better strength and lighter weight of composite structures. Chain of failure events due to different modes of failure is considered to estimate the consequences of failure scenario. Frequencies of occurrence of specific impact hazards yield the expected risk due to economic loss.

Keywords: composites, damage propagation, low velocity impact, probability of failure, uncertainty modeling

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Authors: Ramin Vafadary, Maryam Khanbaghi

Abstract:

Forecasting electricity load is important for various purposes like planning, operation, and control. Forecasts can save operating and maintenance costs, increase the reliability of power supply and delivery systems, and correct decisions for future development. This paper compares various time series methods to forecast 24 hours ahead of electricity load. The methods considered are the Holt-Winters smoothing, SARIMA Modeling, LSTM Network, Fbprophet, and Tensorflow probability. The performance of each method is evaluated by using the forecasting accuracy criteria, namely, the mean absolute error and root mean square error. The National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) residential energy consumption data is used to train the models. The results of this study show that the SARIMA model is superior to the others for 24 hours ahead forecasts. Furthermore, a Bagging technique is used to make the predictions more robust. The obtained results show that by Bagging multiple time-series forecasts, we can improve the robustness of the models for 24 hours ahead of electricity load forecasting.

Keywords: bagging, Fbprophet, Holt-Winters, LSTM, load forecast, SARIMA, TensorFlow probability, time series

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Authors: Ugwu O. C., Mamah R. O., Awudu W. S.

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This work is aimed at enhancing signal reception on a mobile radio network and minimizing outage probability in a mobile radio network using adaptive beamforming antenna arrays. In this research work, an empirical real-time drive measurement was done in a cellular network of Globalcom Nigeria Limited located at Ikeja, the headquarters of Lagos State, Nigeria, with reference base station number KJA 004. The empirical measurement includes Received Signal Strength and Bit Error Rate which were recorded for exact prediction of the signal strength of the network as at the time of carrying out this research work. The Received Signal Strength and Bit Error Rate were measured with a spectrum monitoring Van with the help of a Ray Tracer at an interval of 100 meters up to 700 meters from the transmitting base station. The distance and angular location measurements from the reference network were done with the help Global Positioning System (GPS). The other equipment used were transmitting equipment measurements software (Temsoftware), Laptops and log files, which showed received signal strength with distance from the base station. Results obtained were about 11% from the real-time experiment, which showed that mobile radio networks are prone to signal failure and can be minimized using an Adaptive Beamforming Antenna Array in terms of a significant reduction in Bit Error Rate, which implies improved performance of the mobile radio network. In addition, this work did not only include experiments done through empirical measurement but also enhanced mathematical models that were developed and implemented as a reference model for accurate prediction. The proposed signal models were based on the analysis of continuous time and discrete space, and some other assumptions. These developed (proposed) enhanced models were validated using MATLAB (version 7.6.3.35) program and compared with the conventional antenna for accuracy. These outage models were used to manage the blocked call experience in the mobile radio network. 20% improvement was obtained when the adaptive beamforming antenna arrays were implemented on the wireless mobile radio network.

Keywords: beamforming algorithm, adaptive beamforming, simulink, reception

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Authors: Gianluca Del Rossi

Abstract:

Sub-concussive impacts occur frequently in collision sports such as American tackle football. Sub-concussive level impacts are defined as hits to the head that do not result in the clinical manifestation of concussion injury. Presently, there is limited information known about the short-term effects of repeated sub-concussive blows to the head. Therefore, the purpose of this investigation was to determine if standard clinical measures could detect acute impairments in neurologic function resulting from the accumulation of sub-concussive impacts throughout a season of high school American tackle football. Simple reaction time using the ruler-drop test, and oculomotor performance using the King-Devick (KD) test, were assessed in 15 athletes prior to the start of the athletic season, then repeated each week of the season, and once following its completion. The mean reaction times and fastest KD scores that were recorded or calculated from each study participant and from each test session were analyzed to assess for change in reaction time and oculomotor performance over the course of the American tackle football season. Analyses of KD data revealed improvements in oculomotor performance from baseline measurements (i.e., decreased time), with most weekly comparisons to baseline being significantly different. Statistical tests performed on the mean reaction times obtained via the ruler-drop test throughout the season revealed statistically significant declines (i.e., increased time) between baseline and weeks 3, 4, 10, and 12 of the athletic season. The inconsistent and contrasting findings between KD data and reaction time demonstrate the need to identify more robust clinical measures to definitively assess if repeated sub-concussive impacts to the head are acutely detrimental to patients.

Keywords: head injury, mTBI and sport, subclinical head trauma, sub-concussive impacts

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Authors: Mariam Jaber, Abdullah Yahya, Mohammad Alkhedher

Abstract:

The shift toward sustainable energy solutions increasingly focuses on hydrogen, recognized for its potential as a clean energy carrier. Despite its benefits, hydrogen storage poses significant challenges, primarily due to its low energy density and high volatility. Among the various solutions, pressure vessels designed for hydrogen storage range from Type I to Type V, each tailored for specific needs and benefits. Notably, Type V vessels, with their all-composite, liner-less design, significantly reduce weight and costs while optimizing space and decreasing maintenance demands. This study focuses on optimizing Type V hydrogen storage tanks by examining how different shapes affect performance in drop tests—a crucial aspect of achieving ISO 15869 certification. This certification ensures that if a tank is dropped, it will fail in a controlled manner, ideally by leaking before bursting. While cylindrical vessels are predominant in mobile applications due to their manufacturability and efficient use of space, spherical vessels offer superior stress distribution and require significantly less material thickness for the same pressure tolerance, making them advantageous for high-pressure scenarios. However, spherical tanks are less efficient in terms of packing and more complex to manufacture. Additionally, this study introduces toroidal vessels to assess their performance relative to the more traditional shapes, noting that the toroidal shape offers a more space-efficient option. The research evaluates how different shapes—spherical, cylindrical, and toroidal—affect drop test outcomes when combined with various composite materials and layup configurations. The ultimate goal is to identify optimal vessel geometries that enhance the safety and efficiency of hydrogen storage systems. For our materials, we selected high-performance composites such as Carbon T-700/Epoxy, Kevlar/Epoxy, E-Glass Fiber/Epoxy, and Basalt/Epoxy, configured in various orientations like [0,90]s, [45,-45]s, and [54,-54]. Our tests involved dropping tanks from different angles—horizontal, vertical, and 45 degrees—with an internal pressure of 35 MPa to replicate real-world scenarios as closely as possible. We used finite element analysis and first-order shear deformation theory, conducting tests with the Abaqus Explicit Dynamics software, which is ideal for handling the quick, intense stresses of an impact. The results from these simulations will provide valuable insights into how different designs and materials can enhance the durability and safety of hydrogen storage tanks. Our findings aim to guide future designs, making them more effective at withstanding impacts and safer overall. Ultimately, this research will contribute to the broader field of lightweight composite materials and polymers, advancing more innovative and practical approaches to hydrogen storage. By refining how we design these tanks, we are moving toward more reliable and economically feasible hydrogen storage solutions, further emphasizing hydrogen's role in the landscape of sustainable energy carriers.

Keywords: hydrogen storage, drop test, composite materials, type V tanks, finite element analysis

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Authors: Chiung-Hui Chen

Abstract:

The Internet of Things (IoT) was designed for widespread convenience. With the smart tag and the sensing network, a large quantity of dynamic information is immediately presented in the IoT. Through the internal communication and interaction, meaningful objects provide real-time services for users. Therefore, the service with appropriate decision-making has become an essential issue. Based on the science of human behavior, this study employed the environment model to record the time sequences and locations of different behaviors and adopted the probability module of the hierarchical Hidden Markov Model for the inference. The statistical analysis was conducted to achieve the following objectives: First, define user behaviors and predict the user behavior routes with the environment model to analyze user purposes. Second, construct the hierarchical Hidden Markov Model according to the logic framework, and establish the sequential intensity among behaviors to get acquainted with the use and activity fabric of the intelligent environment. Third, establish the intensity of the relation between the probability of objects’ being used and the objects. The indicator can describe the possible limitations of the mechanism. As the process is recorded in the information of the system created in this study, these data can be reused to adjust the procedure of intelligent design services.

Keywords: behavior, big data, hierarchical hidden Markov model, intelligent object

Procedia PDF Downloads 233

Authors: M. Bahari Mehrabani, Hua-Peng Chen

Abstract:

Management and maintenance of coastal defence structures during the expected life cycle have become a real challenge for decision makers and engineers. Accurate evaluation of the current condition and future performance of flood defence structures is essential for effective practical maintenance strategies on the basis of available field inspection data. Moreover, as coastal defence structures age, it becomes more challenging to implement maintenance and management plans to avoid structural failure. Therefore, condition inspection data are essential for assessing damage and forecasting deterioration of ageing flood defence structures in order to keep the structures in an acceptable condition. The inspection data for flood defence structures are often collected using discrete visual condition rating schemes. In order to evaluate future condition of the structure, a probabilistic deterioration model needs to be utilised. However, existing deterioration models may not provide a reliable prediction of performance deterioration for a long period due to uncertainties. To tackle the limitation, a time-dependent condition-based model associated with a transition probability needs to be developed on the basis of condition grade scheme for flood defences. This paper presents a probabilistic method for predicting future performance deterioration of coastal flood defence structures based on condition grading inspection data and deterioration curves estimated by expert judgement. In condition-based deterioration modelling, the main task is to estimate transition probability matrices. The deterioration process of the structure related to the transition states is modelled according to Markov chain process, and a reliability-based approach is used to estimate the probability of structural failure. Visual inspection data according to the United Kingdom Condition Assessment Manual are used to obtain the initial condition grade curve of the coastal flood defences. The initial curves then modified in order to develop transition probabilities through non-linear regression based optimisation algorithms. The Monte Carlo simulations are then used to evaluate the future performance of the structure on the basis of the estimated transition probabilities. Finally, a case study is given to demonstrate the applicability of the proposed method under no-maintenance and medium-maintenance scenarios. Results show that the proposed method can provide an effective predictive model for various situations in terms of available condition grading data. The proposed model also provides useful information on time-dependent probability of failure in coastal flood defences.

Keywords: condition grading, flood defense, performance assessment, stochastic deterioration modelling

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Authors: Erindi Allaj

Abstract:

This paper studies arbitrage pricing theory in financial markets with transaction costs. We extend the existing theory to include the more realistic possibility that the price at which the investors trade is dependent on the traded volume. The investors in the market always buy at the ask and sell at the bid price. Transaction costs are composed of two terms, one is able to capture the implicit transaction costs and the other the price impact. Moreover, a new definition of a self-financing portfolio is obtained. The self-financing condition suggests that continuous trading is possible, but is restricted to predictable trading strategies which have left and right limit and finite quadratic variation. That is, predictable trading strategies of infinite variation and of finite quadratic variation are allowed in our setting. Within this framework, the existence of an equivalent probability measure is equivalent to the absence of arbitrage opportunities, so that the first fundamental theorem of asset pricing (FFTAP) holds. It is also proved that, when this probability measure is unique, any contingent claim in the market is hedgeable in an L2-sense. The price of any contingent claim is equal to the risk-neutral price. To better understand how to apply the theory proposed we provide an example with linear transaction costs.

Keywords: arbitrage pricing theory,
transaction costs, fundamental theorems of arbitrage, financial markets

Procedia PDF Downloads 360

Authors: Mohammad Bakhshi, Firas Al Janabi

Abstract:

High resolution rain data are very important to fulfill the input of hydrological models. Among models of high-resolution rainfall data generation, the temporal disaggregation was chosen for this study. The paper attempts to generate three different rainfall resolutions (4-hourly, hourly and 10-minutes) from daily for around 20-year record period. The process was done by DiMoN tool which is based on random cascade model and method of fragment. Differences between observed and simulated rain dataset are evaluated with variety of statistical and empirical methods: Kolmogorov-Smirnov test (K-S), usual statistics, and Exceedance probability. The tool worked well at preserving the daily rainfall values in wet days, however, the generated data are cumulated in a shorter time period and made stronger storms. It is demonstrated that the difference between generated and observed cumulative distribution function curve of 4-hourly datasets is passed the K-S test criteria while in hourly and 10-minutes datasets the P-value should be employed to prove that their differences were reasonable. The results are encouraging considering the overestimation of generated high-resolution rainfall data.

Keywords: DiMoN Tool, disaggregation, exceedance probability, Kolmogorov-Smirnov test, rainfall

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Authors: Sai Sudarshan, Harsh Vyas, Riddhiman Sherlekar

Abstract:

The oil and gas industry has been unwilling to adopt stochastic definition of reserves. Nevertheless, Monte Carlo simulation methods have gained acceptance by engineers, geoscientists and other professionals who want to evaluate prospects or otherwise analyze problems that involve uncertainty. One of the common applications of Monte Carlo simulation is the estimation of recoverable hydrocarbon from a reservoir.Monte Carlo Simulation makes use of random samples of parameters or inputs to explore the behavior of a complex system or process. It finds application whenever one needs to make an estimate, forecast or decision where there is significant uncertainty. First, the project focuses on performing Monte-Carlo Simulation on a given data set using U. S Department of Energy’s MonteCarlo Software, which is a freeware e&p tool. Further, an algorithm for simulation has been developed for MATLAB and program performs simulation by prompting user for input distributions and parameters associated with each distribution (i.e. mean, st.dev, min., max., most likely, etc.). It also prompts user for desired probability for which reserves are to be calculated. The algorithm so developed and tested in MATLAB further finds implementation in Python where existing libraries on statistics and graph plotting have been imported to generate better outcome. With PyQt designer, codes for a simple graphical user interface have also been written. The graph so plotted is then validated with already available results from U.S DOE MonteCarlo Software.

Keywords: simulation, probability, confidence interval, sensitivity analysis

Procedia PDF Downloads 382