Search results for: Northern Ethiopia

Authors: Mohamed Al-Hilal

Abstract:

The main purpose of the present study is to assess the role of active tectonics in influencing the emanation level of soil radon across two tectonically active structures of the Northern Dead Sea Fault (NDSF) in northwestern Syria: namely, the Qastoon and Al-Harif fault segments. The radon measurements were basically directed by the results drawn from earlier studies of archaeoseismic and paleoseismic investigation in Al-Harif, besides integrated geophysical and morphotectonic survey at the Qastoon site. In view of that, a total of 80 soil gas radon points were measured in this work with a sampling depth of 75 cm, using the AlphaGUARD PQ 2000Pro radon detector. The background range of normal radon emission from local soil was determined in area located away from the influence of the tectonic disturbances. The obtained radon data were statistically analyzed, and the mean values have been standardized in terms of probability of magnitude, which enhances the comparison process and so facilitating the separation of normal radon variations from other anomalous or geotectonic related values. The overall results revealed remarkable occurrences of fault-associated radon anomalies with maximum peak values of ~6 to 7 times above the background, trending in accordance with the predicted traces of the fault ruptures at the Qastoon and Al-Harif, respectively.

Keywords: soil gas radon, active tectonic structure, northern dead sea fault, western Syria

Procedia PDF Downloads 175

Authors: Sunil Kumar, Uday C. Ghoshal

Abstract:

Background and aims: Serotonin (5-hydroxtryptamine, 5-HT) is an important factor in gut function, playing key roles in intestinal peristalsis and secretion, and in sensory signaling in the brain-gut axis. Removal from its sites of action is mediated by a specific protein called the serotonin reuptake transporter (SERT). Polymorphisms in the promoter region of the SERT gene have effects on transcriptional activity, resulting in altered 5-HT reuptake efficiency. Functional polymorphisms may underlie disturbance in gut function in individuals suffering with disorders such as irritable bowel syndrome (IBS). The aim of this study was to assess the potential association between SERT polymorphisms and the diarrhea predominant IBS (D-IBS) phenotype Subjects: A total of 36 northern Indian female patients and 55 female northern Indian healthy controls (HC) were subjected to genotyping. Methods: Leucocyte DNA of all subjects was analyzed by polymerase chain reaction based technologies for SERT polymorphisms, specifically the insertion/deletion polymorphism in the promoter (SERT-P). Statistical analysis was performed to assess association of SERT polymorphism allele with the D-IBS phenotype. Results: The frequency of distribution of SERT-P gene was comparable between female patients with IBS and HC (p = 0.086). However, frequency of SERT-P deletion/deletion genotype was significantly higher in female patients with D-IBS compared to C-IBS and A-IBS [17/19 (89.5%) vs. 4/12 (33.3%) vs. 1/5 (20%), p=0.001, respectively]. The mucosal level of serotonin was higher in D-IBS compared to C-IBS and A-IBS [Median, range (159.26, 98.78–212.1) vs. 110.4, 67.87–143.53 vs. 92.34, 78.8–166.3 pmol/mL, p=0.001, respectively]. The mucosal level of serotonin was higher in female patients with IBS with SERT-P deletion/deletion genotype compared deletion/insertion and insertion/insertion [157.65, 67.87–212.1 vs. 110.4, 78.1–143.32 vs. 100.5, 69.1–132.03 pmol/mL, p=0.001, respectively]. Patients with D-IBS with deletion/deletion genotype more often reported symptoms of abdominal pain, discomfort (p=0.025) and bloating (p=0.039). Symptoms development following lactose ingestion was strongly associated with D-IBS and SERT-P deletion/deletion genotype (p=0.004). Conclusions: Significant association was observed between D-IBS and the SERT-P deletion/deletion genotype, suggesting that the serotonin transporter is a potential candidate gene for D-IBS in women.

Keywords: serotonin, SERT, inflammatory bowel disease, genetic polymorphism

Procedia PDF Downloads 333

Authors: Odinah Cuartero-Enteria, Aive Pecasales, Jhadly Philip Buniel, Christian Joy Vega, Shiela Estubo

Abstract:

In the Philippines, Mindanao Island has the cheapest electricity because of the hydroelectric plants. Due to the rapid increase of the electricity consumption which the sources of electricity cannot support, it causes rotating brownout during summer season. This study investigated the household energy usage and practices in the rural areas of northern part of the Mindanao Island, Philippines. The questionnaire that includes the respondents’ profile and their common practices in energy consumptions was used as a tool in gathering the data. Several households were subjected to the survey. Results show energy consumption is not dependent on the profile of the respondents. It was observed that most of the families prefer to use energy saving methods of reducing electricity consumption. The main energy saving methods are unplugging unused home appliances, using of compact fluorescent bulb and energy-efficient gadgets, and using high electricity consumption appliances by schedule. Based on the results, the households in the rural areas know the practices of reducing electricity consumption. However, it is highly recommended that concern agencies should initiate information dissemination and strict implementation of well-formulated energy conservation practices all over the areas in Mindanao.

Keywords: Philippines, Mindanao island, rural areas, households, energy usages, practices

Procedia PDF Downloads 381

Authors: Zeliha Erdogan, Hatice Torcu Koc

Abstract:

The fish, Sarpa salpa (L.), is one of the main macroherbivores in the Mediterranean. A total of 600 Salema individuals were collected from around Gökçeada, Sea of Northern Aegean, between January 2014 and January 2015 in order to evaluate some information on the biology of the Salema population. For this aim, measurements of the Salema were obtained using a caliper. The age readings were made from otoliths. The population was composed of 6 age classes (I-VI). The total lengths and total weights of sampled fish were determined to be ranged from 12.5 to 33.1 cm and 33.57 to 559.33 g, respectively. Length-weight relationship for all individuals was calculated as W=0.0085*L3.1723, R2=0.9524. Growth parameters were determined as L∞= 35.55cm, k=0.31, t0= -9.2, '=2.60. As the sexual ratio was 1.08:1 (M: F), the Salema population consisted of 51.66% male and 47.5% female individuals. The highest average condition factors were observed for females in May (1.68) and for males in May (1.67). According to gonad somatic index values, the spawning period was determined twice a year in spring (April) and autumn (October). The highest average hepatosomatix index value was observed for all individuals in May and December. It was estimated that total (Z) mortality, natural (M) mortality, and fishing (F) mortality rates were Z=0.44 year-1, M=0.064 year-1 and F=0.38 year-1, respectively. As the exploitation rate was estimated as E=0.86, it can be shown that the Salema stock was highly influenced by overfishing.

Keywords: biology, sarpa salpa, Gökceada, meadows

Procedia PDF Downloads 80

Authors: Budsarin Padwang, Darunee Jongudomkarn, Thawan Nieamsup, Autchareeya Patumwan, Rutja Phuphaibul

Abstract:

In Northern Thailand, a pilot study by the qualitative data, on caring for family members with chronic illness/bedridden based on in-depth interviews of the 12 elderly caregivers in family was carried out during November to December 2017. There are four families that living with three generations in the family. This report is part of a larger study of 'The intergenerational contract of the family in long-term care for older members' to understand the situation and context related to the research questions. Content analysis was obtained and the results revealed as followings. 1) No choice and no freedom: most caregivers were asked by their family members to do the care giving roles because of various appropriate reasons and they could not refuse and felt like having no freedom. 2) ‘Katanyu’ to the parents: The Thai ideology of making merit by taking care of parents was beliefs to do the best in their caregiver roles. 3) The family commitments: The issues of family caring and relationships were the key value of keeping family members to take care of older members with chronic illness/bedridden. The preliminary findings can be beneficial for other regions and will lead to in-depth explore to answer the research questions of the larger study in the future.

Keywords: intergenerational contract, long term care, older members, generational family

Procedia PDF Downloads 156

Authors: Minbale Aschale, Bitew K. Dessie, Endaweke Assegide, Yosef Abebe, Tena Alamirew, Claire L. Walsh, Gete Zeleke

Abstract:

The upper Awash Basin faces pollution challenges due to urbanization, population growth, and expanding industries. It receives various pollutants from its catchments. The study aimed to assess the impact of wastewater irrigation on vegetables and inform stakeholders about pollution challenges and consequences. Eighty-two composite samples of matured vegetables were randomly collected from twenty-one agricultural farm sites. These samples were analyzed for potentially toxic elements, including Cd, Pb, Cr, Hg, As, Ni, Sr, B, Co, Cu, Mn, Fe, Zn, and Se. The results indicated significant variations in concentrations across different sites, with localized contributions from various contaminants. Cr, Cd, and Pb concentrations in most vegetables exceeded recommended levels. Pollution levels varied with metals and vegetable types. Different vegetables contribute differently to health risks. The relative contributions of Ethiopian kale, cabbage, red beet, lettuce, Swiss chard, Gurage cabbage, tomato, zucchini, carrot, onion, watermelon, and potato to the aggregated risk were 12.69%, 12.25%, 11.83%, 11.20%, 10.21%, 9.91%, 8.49%, 5.66%, 3.96%, 3.35%, 3.10%, and 2.72%, respectively. Comparison with permissible standards revealed inadequate environmental management by relevant regulatory bodies and industries. Despite good laws and standards at the federal and regional levels, they are ineffectively implemented or enforced to prevent environmental pollution. Mitigation measures are urgently recommended to address the potential health implications of toxic substances.

Keywords: pollution, upper Awash Basin, health risk, Ethiopia

Procedia PDF Downloads 51

Authors: Betelhem M. Negede, Maarten Voors, Hugo De Groote, Bart Minten

Abstract:

Farmers in Ethiopia produce most of their own food during one agricultural season per year. Therefore, they need to use on-farm storage technologies to bridge the lean season and benefit from price arbitrage. Maize stored using traditional storage bags offer no protection from insects and molds, leading to high storage losses. In Ethiopia access to and use of modern storage technologies are still limited, restraining farmers to benefit from local maize price fluctuations. We used a randomized controlled trial among 871 maize farmers to evaluate the impacts of Purdue Improved Crop Storage (PICS) bags, also known as hermetic bags, on storage losses, and especially on behavioral changes with respect to consumption, marketing, and income among maize farmers in Ethiopia. This study builds upon the limited previous experimental research that has tried to understand farmers’ grain storage and post-harvest losses and identify mechanisms behind the persistence of these challenges. Our main hypothesis is that access to PICS bags allows farmers to increase production, storage and maize income. Also delay the length of maize storage, reduce maize post-harvest losses and improve their food security. Our results show that even though farmers received only three PICS bags that represent 10percent of their total maize stored, they delay their length of maize storage for sales by two weeks. However, we find no treatment effect on maize income, suggesting that the arbitrage of two weeks is too small. Also, we do not find any reduction in storage losses due to farmers’ reaction by selling early and by using cheap and readily available but potentially harmful storage chemicals. Looking at the heterogeneity treatment effects between the treatment variable and highland and lowland villages, we find a decrease in the percentage of maize stored by 4 percent in the highland villages. This confirms that location specific factors, such as agro-ecology and proximity to markets are important factors that influence whether and how much of the harvest a farmer stores. These findings highlight the benefits of hermetic storage bags, by allowing farmers to make inter-temporal arbitrage and by reducing potential health risks from storage chemicals. The main policy recommendation that emanates from our study is that postharvest losses reduction throughout the whole value chain is an important pathway to food and income security in Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA). However, future storage loss interventions with hermetic storage technologies should take into account the agro-ecology of the study area and quantify storage losses beyond farmers self-reported losses, such as the count and weigh method. Finally, studies on hermetic storage technologies indicate positive impacts on post-harvest losses and in improving food security, but the adoption and use of these technologies is currently still low in SSA. Therefore, future works on the scaling up of hermetic bags, should consider reasons why farmers only use PICS bags to store grains for consumption, which is usually related to a safety-first approach or due to lack of incentives (higher price from maize not treated with chemicals), and no grain quality check.

Keywords: arbitrage, PICS hermetic bags, post-harvest storage loss, RCT

Procedia PDF Downloads 136

Authors: Selam Mulugeta, Barkot Milkias, Mesfin Araya, Abel Worku, Eyasu Mulugeta

Abstract:

In Ethiopia, there is inadequate information on non-adherence to antidepressant treatment in patients with depressive disorders. Having awareness of the pattern of adherence is important in future prognosis, quality of life, and functionality in these patients. This hospital-based cross-sectional quantitative study was done on a sample of 216 consecutive outpatients with depressive disorders. Data were collected using questionnaires through in-person and phone call interviews. The 8-item Morisky scale was used to assess the pattern of medication adherence. Other specially developed tools were used to obtain sociodemographic and clinical information from electronic medical records and patient interviews. Data were analyzed using the Statistical Package for the Social Sciences Version - 25. Univariate and multivariable analyses were carried out to assess factors associated with non-adherence. 90% of the participants had a primary diagnosis of major depressive disorder. Based on the 8-item Morisky Medication Adherence Scale, the prevalence of non-adherence was found to be 84.7%. Living distance between 11 to 50 km from the hospital (AOR= 11, 95% CI (29,46.6)), post-secondary level of education (AOR= 8.3, 95% CI (1, 64.4)) and taking multiple medications (AOR= 6.1, 95% CI (1, 34.9)) were found to have significantly increased odds of non-adherence. Non-adherence was significantly associated with factors such as increased living distance from the hospital, relatively higher educational level, and polypharmacy. Proper and patient-centered psychoeducation, addressing the communication gap between patients and doctors, adherence to prescribing guidelines, avoiding polypharmacy unless indicated & working on accessibility of treatment is essential to decrease non-adherence.

Keywords: depressive disorders, Ethiopia, medication adherence, Addis Ababa

Procedia PDF Downloads 149

Authors: Zabihullah Mahdi, Khwaja Naweed Seddiqi

Abstract:

Afghanistan is located in a tectonically complex and dynamic area, surrounded by rocks that originated on the mother continent of Gondwanaland. The northern Afghanistan basin, which runs along the country's northern border, has the potential for petroleum generation and accumulation. The Amu Darya basin has the largest petroleum potential in the region. Sedimentation occurred in the Amu Darya basin from the Jurassic to the Eocene epochs. Kashkari oil field is located in northern Afghanistan's Amu Darya basin. The field structure consists of a narrow northeast-southwest (NE-SW) anticline with two structural highs, the northwest limb being mild and the southeast limb being steep. The first oil production well in the Kashkari oil field was drilled in 1976, and a total of ten wells were drilled in the area between 1976 and 1979. The amount of original oil in place (OOIP) in the Kashkari oil field, based on the results of surveys and calculations conducted by research institutions, is estimated to be around 140 MMbbls. The objective of this study is to increase recoverable oil reserves in the Kashkari oil field through the implementation of low-salinity water flooding (LSWF) enhanced oil recovery (EOR) technique. The LSWF involved conducting a core flooding laboratory test consisting of four sequential steps with varying salinities. The test commenced with the use of formation water (FW) as the initial salinity, which was subsequently reduced to a salinity level of 0.1%. Afterwards, the numerical simulation model of core scale oil recovery by LSWF was designed by Computer Modelling Group’s General Equation Modeler (CMG-GEM) software to evaluate the applicability of the technology to the field scale. Next, the Kahskari oil field simulation model was designed, and the LSWF method was applied to it. To obtain reasonable results, laboratory settings (temperature, pressure, rock, and oil characteristics) are designed as far as possible based on the condition of the Kashkari oil field, and several injection and production patterns are investigated. The relative permeability of oil and water in this study was obtained using Corey’s equation. In the Kashkari oilfield simulation model, three models: 1. Base model (with no water injection), 2. FW injection model, and 3. The LSW injection model were considered for the evaluation of the LSWF effect on oil recovery. Based on the results of the LSWF laboratory experiment and computer simulation analysis, the oil recovery increased rapidly after the FW was injected into the core. Subsequently, by injecting 1% salinity water, a gradual increase of 4% oil can be observed. About 6.4% of the field, is produced by the application of the LSWF technique. The results of LSWF (salinity 0.1%) on the Kashkari oil field suggest that this technology can be a successful method for developing Kashkari oil production.

Keywords: low salinity water flooding, immiscible displacement, kashkari oil field, twophase flow, numerical reservoir simulation model

Procedia PDF Downloads 42

Authors: Temesgen Kassa Getahun, Gezahegn Mamo, Beksisa Urge

Abstract:

A cross-sectional study was conducted from December 2019 to May 2020 with the aim of determining the seroprevalence of brucellosis in dairy cows and their owners in the central highland of Oromia, Ethiopia. A total of 352 blood samples from dairy cattle, 149 from animal owners, and 17 from farm workers were collected and initially screened using the Rose Bengal Plate test and confirmed by the Complement Fixation test. Overall seroprevalence was 0.6% (95% CI: 0.0016–0.0209) in bovines and 1.2% (95% CI: 0.0032–0.0427) in humans. Market-based stock replacement (OR=16.55, p=0.002), breeding by artificial insemination (OR=7.58, p=0.05), and parturition pen (OR = 11.511, p=0.027) were found to be significantly associated with the seropositivity for Brucella infection in dairy cattle. Human housing (OR=1.8, p=0.002), contact with an aborted fetus (OR=21.19, p=0.017), drinking raw milk from non-aborted (OR=24.99, p=0.012), aborted (OR=5.72, p=0.019) and retained fetal membrane (OR=4.22, p=0.029) cows had a significant influence on human brucellosis. A structured interview question was administered to 284 respondents. Accordingly, most respondents had no knowledge of brucellosis (93.3%), and in contrast, 90% of them consumed raw milk. In conclusion, the present seroprevalence study revealed that brucellosis was low among dairy cattle and exposed individuals in the study areas. However, since there were no control strategies implemented in the study areas, there is a potential risk of transmission of brucellosis in dairy cattle and the exposed human population in the study areas. Implementation of a test and slaughter strategy with compensation to farmers is recommended, while in the case of human brucellosis, continuous social training and implementing one health approach framework must be applied.

Keywords: abortion, bovine brucellosis, human brucellosis, risk factors, seroprevalence

Procedia PDF Downloads 105

Authors: Zabihullah Mahdi, Khwaja Naweed Seddiqi

Abstract:

Afghanistan is located in a tectonically complex and dynamic area, surrounded by rocks that originated on the mother continent of Gondwanaland. The northern Afghanistan basin, which runs along the country's northern border, has the potential for petroleum generation and accumulation. The Amu Darya basin has the largest petroleum potential in the region. Sedimentation occurred in the Amu Darya basin from the Jurassic to the Eocene epochs. Kashkari oil field is located in northern Afghanistan's Amu Darya basin. The field structure consists of a narrow northeast-southwest (NE-SW) anticline with two structural highs, the northwest limb being mild and the southeast limb being steep. The first oil production well in the Kashkari oil field was drilled in 1976, and a total of ten wells were drilled in the area between 1976 and 1979. The amount of original oil in place (OOIP) in the Kashkari oil field, based on the results of surveys and calculations conducted by research institutions, is estimated to be around 140 MMbbls. The objective of this study is to increase recoverable oil reserves in the Kashkari oil field through the implementation of low-salinity water flooding (LSWF) enhanced oil recovery (EOR) technique. The LSWF involved conducting a core flooding laboratory test consisting of four sequential steps with varying salinities. The test commenced with the use of formation water (FW) as the initial salinity, which was subsequently reduced to a salinity level of 0.1%. Afterward, the numerical simulation model of core scale oil recovery by LSWF was designed by Computer Modelling Group’s General Equation Modeler (CMG-GEM) software to evaluate the applicability of the technology to the field scale. Next, the Kahskari oil field simulation model was designed, and the LSWF method was applied to it. To obtain reasonable results, laboratory settings (temperature, pressure, rock, and oil characteristics) are designed as far as possible based on the condition of the Kashkari oil field, and several injection and production patterns are investigated. The relative permeability of oil and water in this study was obtained using Corey’s equation. In the Kashkari oilfield simulation model, three models: 1. Base model (with no water injection), 2. FW injection model, and 3. The LSW injection model was considered for the evaluation of the LSWF effect on oil recovery. Based on the results of the LSWF laboratory experiment and computer simulation analysis, the oil recovery increased rapidly after the FW was injected into the core. Subsequently, by injecting 1% salinity water, a gradual increase of 4% oil can be observed. About 6.4% of the field is produced by the application of the LSWF technique. The results of LSWF (salinity 0.1%) on the Kashkari oil field suggest that this technology can be a successful method for developing Kashkari oil production.

Keywords: low-salinity water flooding, immiscible displacement, Kashkari oil field, two-phase flow, numerical reservoir simulation model

Procedia PDF Downloads 39

Authors: Shetie Gatew

Abstract:

Current soil maps of Ethiopia do not represent accurately the soils of Nech Sar National Park. In the framework of studies on the ecology of the park, we prepared a soil map based on field observations and a digital terrain model derived from SRTM data with a 30-m resolution. The landscape comprises volcanic cones, lava and basalt outflows, undulating plains, horsts, alluvial plains and river deltas. SOTER-like terrain mapping units were identified. First, the DTM was classified into 128 terrain classes defined by slope gradient (4 classes), relief intensity (4 classes), potential drainage density (2 classes), and hypsometry (4 classes). A soil-landscape relation between the terrain mapping units and WRB soil units was established based on 34 soil profile pits. Based on this relation, the terrain mapping units were either merged or split to represent a comprehensive soil and terrain map. The soil map indicates that Leptosols (30 %), Cambisols (26%), Andosols (21%), Fluvisols (12 %), and Vertisols (9%) are the most widespread Reference Soil Groups of the park. In contrast, the harmonized soil map of Africa derived from the FAO soil map of the world indicates that Luvisols (70%), Vertisols (14%) and Fluvisols (16%) would be the most common Reference Soil Groups. However, these latter mapping units are not consistent with the topography, nor did we find such extensive areas occupied by Luvisols during the field survey. This case study shows that with the now freely available SRTM data, it is possible to improve current soil information layers with relatively limited resources, even in a complex terrain like Nech Sar National Park.

Keywords: andosols, cambisols, digital elevation model, leptosols, soil-landscaps relation

Procedia PDF Downloads 105

Authors: Megersa Dugasa Fite

Abstract:

This paper analyses regulatory and supervisory issues in the Ethiopian micro finance sector, which caters to the needs of those who have been excluded from the formal financial sector. Micro-finance has received increased importance in development because of its grand goal to give credits to the poor to raise their economic and social well-being and improve the quality of lives. The micro-finance at present has been moving towards a credit-plus period through covering savings and insurance functions. It thus helps in reducing the rate of financial exclusion and social segregation, alleviating poverty and, consequently, stimulating development. The Ethiopian micro finance policy has been generally positive and developmental but major regulatory and supervisory limitations such as the absolute prohibition of NGOs to participate in micro credit functions, higher risks for depositors of micro-finance institutions, lack of credit information services with research and development, the unmet demand, and risks of market failures due to over-regulation are disappointing. Therefore, to remove the limited reach and high degree of problems typical in the informal means of financial intermediation plus to deal with the failure of formal banks to provide basic financial services to a significant portion of the country’s population, more needs to be done on micro finance. Certain key regulatory and supervisory revisions hence need to be taken to strengthen the Ethiopian micro finance sector so that it can practically provide majority poor access to a range of high quality financial services that help them work their way out of poverty and the incapacity it imposes.

Keywords: micro-finance, micro-finance regulation and supervision, micro-finance institutions, financial access, social segregation, poverty alleviation, development, Ethiopia

Procedia PDF Downloads 395

Authors: Mohammed Abaoli, Omer Kara

Abstract:

The current research has investigated the soil quality status under dryland vegetation of Yabello district, Southern Ethiopia in which we should identify the nature and extent of salinity problem of the area for further research bases. About 48 soil samples were taken from 0-30, 31-60, 61-90 and 91-120 cm soil depths by opening 12 representative soil profile pits at 1.5 m depth. Soil color, texture, bulk density, Soil Organic Carbon (SOC), Cation Exchange Capacity (CEC), Na, K, Mg, Ca, CaCO₃, gypsum (CaSO₄), pH, Sodium Adsorption Ratio (SAR), Exchangeable Sodium Percentage (ESP) were analyzed. The dominant soil texture was silty-clay-loam.  Bulk density varied from 1.1 to 1.31 g/cm³. High SOC content was observed in 0-30 cm. The soil pH ranged from 7.1 to 8.6. The electrical conductivity shows indirect relationship with soil depth while CaCO₃ and CaSO₄ concentrations were observed in a direct relationship with depth. About 41% are non-saline, 38.31% saline, 15.23% saline-sodic and 5.46% sodic soils. Na concentration in saline soils was greater than Ca and Mg in all the soil depths. Ca and Mg contents were higher above 60 cm soil depth in non-saline soils. The concentrations of SO₂^-4 and HCO^-3 were observed to be higher at the most lower depth than upper. SAR value tends to be higher at lower depths in saline and saline-sodic soils, but decreases at lower depth of the non-saline soils. The distribution of ESP above 60 cm depth was in an increasing order in saline and saline-sodic soils. The result of the research has shown the direction to which extent of salinity we should consider for the Commiphora plant species we want to grow on the area. 

Keywords: commiphora species, dryland vegetation, ecological significance, soil quality, salinity problem

Procedia PDF Downloads 195

Authors: Mohamed Bualhamam

Abstract:

Due to the complex nature of tourism resources of the Northern part of the United Arab Emirates (UAE), the potential of Geographical Information Systems (GIS) and Remote Sensing (RS) in resolving these issues was used. The study was an attempt to use existing GIS data layers to identify sensitive natural environment and archaeological heritage resources that may be threatened by increased urban growth and give some specific recommendations to protect the area. By identifying sensitive natural environment and archaeological heritage resources, public agencies and citizens are in a better position to successfully protect important natural lands and direct growth away from environmentally sensitive areas. The paper concludes that applications of GIS and RS in study of urban growth impact in tourism resources are a strong and effective tool that can aid in tourism planning and decision-making. The study area is one of the fastest growing regions in the country. The increase in population along the region, as well as rapid growth of towns, has increased the threat to natural resources and archeological sites. Satellite remote sensing data have been proven useful in assessing the natural resources and in monitoring the changes. The study used GIS and RS to identify sensitive natural environment and archaeological heritage resources that may be threatened by increased urban growth. The result of GIS analyses shows that the Northern part of the UAE has variety for tourism resources, which can use for future tourism development. Rapid urban development in the form of small towns and different economic activities are showing in different places in the study area. The urban development extended out of old towns and have negative affected of sensitive tourism resources in some areas. Tourism resources for the Northern part of the UAE is a highly complex resources, and thus requires tools that aid in effective decision making to come to terms with the competing economic, social, and environmental demands of sustainable development. The UAE government should prepare a tourism databases and a GIS system, so that planners can be accessed for archaeological heritage information as part of development planning processes. Applications of GIS in urban planning, tourism and recreation planning illustrate that GIS is a strong and effective tool that can aid in tourism planning and decision- making. The power of GIS lies not only in the ability to visualize spatial relationships, but also beyond the space to a holistic view of the world with its many interconnected components and complex relationships. The worst of the damage could have been avoided by recognizing suitable limits and adhering to some simple environmental guidelines and standards will successfully develop tourism in sustainable manner. By identifying sensitive natural environment and archaeological heritage resources of the Northern part of the UAE, public agencies and private citizens are in a better position to successfully protect important natural lands and direct growth away from environmentally sensitive areas.

Keywords: GIS, natural environment, UAE, urban growth

Procedia PDF Downloads 261

Authors: Berhanu Terfa, Nengcheng C.

Abstract:

The study deals with the analysis of urban expansion and land transformation of Hawass City using remote sensing data and landscape metrics during last three decades (1987–2017). Remote sensing data from Various multi-temporal satellite images viz., TM (1987), TM (1995), ETM+ (2005) and OLI (2017) were used to examine the urban expansion, growth types, and spatial isolation within the urban landscape to develop an understanding the trends of built-up growth in Hawassa City, Ethiopia. Landscape metrics and built-up density were employed to analyze the pattern, process and overall growth status. The area under investigation was divided into concentric circles with a consecutive circle of 1 km incremental radius from the central pixel (Central Business District) for analysis. The result exhibited that the built-up area had increased by 541.32% between 1987 and 2017and an extension growth types (more than 67 %) was observed. The major growth took place in north-west direction followed by north direction in haphazard manner during 1987–1995 period, whereas predominant built-up development was observed in south and southwest direction during 1995–2017 period. Land scape metrics result revealed that the of urban patches density, total edge and edge density increased, while mean nearest neighbors’ distance decreased showing the tendency of sprawl.

Keywords: landscape metrics, spatial patterns, remote sensing, multi-temporal, urban sprawl

Procedia PDF Downloads 286

Authors: Tewele Gebretsadkan Haile

Abstract:

Mountain terrains are essential to regional water resources by regulating hydrological processes that use downstream water supplies. Nevertheless, limited observed earth data in complex topography poses challenges for water resources regulation. That's why satellite product is implemented in this study. This study evaluates hydrological processes on mountain catchment of Gumera, Ethiopia using HBV-light model with satellite precipitation products (CHIRPS) for the temporal scale of 1996 to 2010 and area coverage of 1289 km2. The catchment is characterized by cultivation dominant and elevation ranges from 1788 to 3606 m above sea level. Three meteorological stations have been used for downscaling of the satellite data and one stream flow for calibration and validation. The result shows total annual water balance showed that precipitation 1410 mm, simulated 828 mm surface runoff compared to 1042 mm observed stream flow with actual evapotranspiration estimate 586mm and 1495mm potential evapotranspiration. The temperature range is 9°C in winter to 21°C. The catchment contributes 74% as quack runoff to the total runoff and 26% as lower groundwater storage, which sustains stream flow during low periods. The model uncertainty was measured using different metrics such as coefficient of determination, model efficiency, efficiency for log(Q) and flow weighted efficiency 0.76, 0.74, 0.66 and 0.70 respectively. The research result highlights that HBV model captures the mountain hydrology simulation and the result indicates quack runoff due to the traditional agricultural system, slope factor of the topography and adaptation measure for water resource management is recommended.

Keywords: mountain hydrology, CHIRPS, Gumera, HBV model

Procedia PDF Downloads 12

Authors: Tewele Gebretsadkan Haile

Abstract:

Mountain terrains are essential to regional water resources by regulating hydrological processes that use downstream water supplies. Nevertheless, limited observed earth data in complex topography poses challenges for water resources regulation. That's why satellite product is implemented in this study. This study evaluates hydrological processes on mountain catchment of Gumera, Ethiopia using HBV-light model with satellite precipitation products (CHIRPS) for the temporal scale of 1996 to 2010 and area coverage of 1289 km2. The catchment is characterized by cultivation dominant and elevation ranges from 1788 to 3606 m above sea level. Three meteorological stations have been used for downscaling of the satellite data and one stream flow for calibration and validation. The result shows total annual water balance showed that precipitation 1410 mm, simulated 828 mm surface runoff compared to 1042 mm observed stream flow with actual evapotranspiration estimate 586mm and 1495mm potential evapotranspiration. The temperature range is 9°C in winter to 21°C. The catchment contributes 74% as quack runoff to the total runoff and 26% as lower groundwater storage, which sustains stream flow during low periods. The model uncertainty was measured using different metrics such as coefficient of determination, model efficiency, efficiency for log(Q) and flow weighted efficiency 0.76, 0.74, 0.66 and 0.70 respectively. The research result highlights that HBV model captures the mountain hydrology simulation and the result indicates quack runoff due to the traditional agricultural system, slope factor of the topography and adaptation measure for water resource management is recommended.

Keywords: mountain hydrology, CHIRPS, HBV model, Gumera

Procedia PDF Downloads 11

Authors: Addisu Tadesse Sahile, Tennyson Mgutshini

Abstract:

Background: Periodontal disease is a common, complex, inflammatory disease characterized by the destruction of tooth-supporting soft and hard tissues of the periodontium and a major public health problem across developed and developing countries. Objectives: The study was aimed at assessing the prevalence of periodontal disease and associated factors among diabetes patients in Addis Ababa, Ethiopia, 2018. Methods: Institutional based cross-sectional study was conducted on 388 diabetes patients selected by systematic random sampling method from March to May 2018. The study was conducted at two conveniently selected public hospitals in Addis Ababa. Data were collected with pre-tested, structured and translated questionnaire then entered to SPSS version 23 software for analysis. Descriptive statistics as a summary, in line with chi-square and binary logistics regression to identify factors associated with periodontal disease, were applied. A 95% CI with a p-value less than 5% was used as a level of significance. Results: Ninety-one percent (n=353) of participants had periodontal disease while oral examination was done in six regions. While only 9% (n=35) of participants were free of periodontal disease. The number of tooth brushings per day, correct techniques of brushing, malocclusion, and fillings that are defective were associated with periodontal disease at p < 0.05. Conclusion and recommendation: A higher prevalence of periodontal disease among diabetes patient was observed. The frequency of tooth brushing, correct techniques of brushing, malocclusion and defective fillings were associated with periodontal disease. Emphasis has to be given to oral health of diabetes patients by every concerned body so as to control the current higher burden of periodontal disease in diabetes.

Keywords: periodontal disease, risk factors, diabetes mellitus, Addis Ababa

Procedia PDF Downloads 128

Authors: Hagos Abraham, Solomon Gizaw, Mengistu Urge

Abstract:

A sound breeding objective is the basis for genetic improvement in overall economic merit of farm animals. Begait goat is one of the identified breeds in Ethiopia, which is a multipurpose breed as it serves as source of cash income and source of food (meat and milk). Despite its importance, no formal breeding objectives exist for Begait goat. The objective of the present study was to identify breeding objectives for the breed through two approaches: using own-flock ranking experiment and developing deterministic bio-economic models as a preliminary step towards designing sustainable breeding programs for the breed. In the own-flock ranking experiment, a total of forty five households were visited at their homesteads and were asked to select, with reasons, the first best, second best, third best and the most inferior does from their own flock. Age, previous reproduction and production information of the identified animals were inquired; live body weight and some linear body measurements were taken. The bio-economic model included performance traits (weights, daily weight gain, kidding interval, litter size, milk yield, kid mortality, pregnancy and replacement rates) and economic (revenue and costs) parameters. It was observed that there was close agreement between the farmers’ ranking and bio-economic model results. In general, the results of the present study indicated that Begait goat owners could improve performance of their goats and profitability of their farms by selecting for litter size, six month weight, pre-weaning kid survival rate and milk yield.

Keywords: bio-economic model, economic parameters, own-flock ranking, performance traits

Procedia PDF Downloads 67

Authors: Wondale Getinet Alemu, Lillian Mwanri, Clemence Due, Telake Azale, Anna Ziersch

Abstract:

Background: Mental illness is one of the most severe, chronic, and disabling public health problems that affect patients' Quality of life (QoL). Improving the QoL for people with mental illness is one of the most critical steps in stopping disease progression and avoiding complications of mental illness. Therefore, we aimed to assess the QoL and its determinants in patients with mental illness in outpatient clinics in Northwest Ethiopia in 2023. Methods: A facility-based cross-sectional study was conducted among people with mental illness in an outpatient clinic in Ethiopia. The sampling interval was decided by dividing the total number of study participants who had a follow-up appointment during the data collection period (2400) by the total sample size of 638, with the starting point selected by lottery method. The interviewer-administered WHOQOL BREF-26 tool was used to measure the QoL of people with mental illness. The domains and Health-Related Quality of Life (HRQoL) were identified. The indirect and direct effects of variables were calculated using structural equation modeling with SPSS-28 and Amos-28 software. A p-value of < 0.05 and a 95% CI were used to evaluate statistical significance. Results: A total of 636 (99.7%) participants responded and completed the WHOQOL-BREF questionnaire. The mean score of overall HRQoL of people with mental illness in the outpatient clinic was (49.6 ± 10 Sd). The highest QoL was found in the physical health domain (50.67 ±9.5 Sd), and the lowest mean QoL was found in the psychological health domain (48.41±10 Sd). Rural residents, drug nonadherence, suicidal ideation, not getting counseling, moderate or severe subjective severity, the family does not participate in patient care, and a family history of mental illness had an indirect negative effect on HRQoL. Alcohol use and psychological health domain had a direct positive effect on QoL. Furthermore, objective severity of illness, having low self-esteem, and having a history of mental illness in the family had both direct and indirect effects on QoL. Furthermore, sociodemographic factors (residence, educational status, marital status), social support-related factors (self-esteem, family not participating in patient care), substance use factors (alcohol use, tobacco use,) and clinical factors (objective and subjective severity of illness, not getting counseling, suicidal ideation, number of episodes, comorbid illness, family history of mental illness, poor drug adherence) directly and indirectly affected QoL. Conclusions: In this study, the QoL of people with mental illness was poor, with the psychological health domain being the most affected. Sociodemographic factors, social support-related factors, drug use factors, and clinical factors directly and indirectly, affect QoL through the mediator variables of physical health domains, psychological health domains, social relation health domains, and environmental health domains. In order to improve the QoL of people with mental illnesses, we recommend that emphasis be given to addressing the scourge of mental health, including the development of policy and practice drivers that address the above-identified factors.

Keywords: quality of life, mental wellbeing, mental illness, mental disorder, Ethiopia

Procedia PDF Downloads 80

Authors: A. R. Shokoohi, E. A. M. Bulder, C. Th. van Alphen, D. F. den Hertog, E. J. Hin

Abstract:

The Northern region of the Netherlands has beautiful landscapes, a nice diversity of green and blue areas, and dispersed settlements. However, some recent population changes can become threats to health and wellbeing in these areas. The rural areas in the three northern provinces -Groningen, Friesland, and Drenthe, see youngsters leave the region for which reason they are aging faster than other regions in the Netherlands. As a result, some villages have faced major population decline that is leading to loss of facilities/amenities and a decrease in accessibility and social cohesion. Those who still live in these villages are relatively old, low educated and have low-income. To develop a deeper understanding of the health status of the people living in these areas, and help them to improve their living environment, the GO!-Method is being applied in this study. This method has been developed by the National Institute for Public Health and the Environment (RIVM) of the Netherlands and is inspired by the broad definition of health by Machteld Huber: the ability to adapt and direct control, in terms of the physical, emotional and social challenges of life, while paying extra attention to vulnerable groups. A healthy living environment is defined as an environment that residents find it pleasant and encourages and supports healthy behavior. The GO!-method integrates six domains that constitute a healthy living environment: health and lifestyle, facilities and development, safety and hygiene, social cohesion and active citizens, green areas, and air and noise pollution. First of all, this method will identify opportunities for a healthier living environment using existing information and perceptions of residents and other local stakeholders in order to strengthen social participation and quality of life in these rural areas. Second, this approach will connect identified opportunities with available and effective evidence-based interventions in order to develop an action plan from the residents and local authorities perspective which will help them to design their municipalities healthier and more resilient. This method is being used for the first time in rural areas to our best knowledge, in close collaboration with the residents and local authorities of the three provinces to create a sustainable process and stimulate social participation. Our paper will present the outcomes of the first phase of this project in collaboration with the municipality of Westerkwartier, located in the northwest of the province of Groningen. And will describe the current situation, and identify local assets, opportunities, and policies relating to healthier environment; as well as needs and challenges to achieve goals. The preliminary results show that rural demographic changes in the northern Netherlands have negative impacts on service provisions and social cohesion, and there is a need to understand this complicated situation and improve the quality of life in those areas.

Keywords: population decline, rural areas, healthy environment, Netherlands

Procedia PDF Downloads 96

Authors: Jonathan Ogwal, Louis H. Kamulegeya, John M. Bwanika, Davis Musinguzi

Abstract:

Introduction: Community retail Pharmacy drug distribution points (CRPDDP) were implemented in the Lango sub-region as part of the Ministry of Health’s response to improving access and adherence to antiretroviral treatment (ART). Clients received their ART refills from nearby local pharmacies; as such, the need for continuous engagement through mobile phone appointment reminders and health messages. We share learnings from the implementation of mobile text reminders and voice call follow-ups among ART clients attending the CRPDDP program in northern Uganda. Methods: A retrospective data review of electronic medical records from four pharmacies allocated for CRPDDP in the Lira and Apac districts of the Lango sub-region in Northern Uganda was done from February to August 2022. The process involved collecting phone contacts of eligible clients from the health facility appointment register and uploading them onto a messaging platform customized by Rapid-pro, an open-source software. Client information, including code name, phone number, next appointment date, and the allocated pharmacy for ART refill, was collected and kept confidential. Contacts received appointment reminder messages and other messages on positive living as an ART client. Routine voice call follow-ups were done to ascertain the picking of ART from the refill pharmacy. Findings: In total, 1,354 clients were reached from the four allocated pharmacies found in urban centers. 972 clients received short message service (SMS) appointment reminders, and 382 were followed up through voice calls. The majority (75%) of the clients returned for refills on the appointed date, 20% returned within four days after the appointment date, and the remaining 5% needed follow-up where they reported that they were not in the district by the appointment date due to other engagements. Conclusion: The use of mobile text reminders and voice call follow-ups improves the attendance of community retail pharmacy refills.

Keywords: antiretroviral treatment, community retail drug distribution points, mobile text reminders, voice call follow-up

Procedia PDF Downloads 99

Authors: Gashaw Abebaw

Abstract:

Concrete usage in Ethiopia is expanding at a faster rate than before. Cement is the most important and costly ingredient in this respect. The construction industry is currently challenged by cement scarcity and stock market inflation. Scholars' trays, on the other hand, will use natural pozzolan material to substitute cement. Apart from that, Metakaolin has pozzolanic characteristics. According to the industrial mineral occurrence map, Ethiopia kaolin may be found in abundance. Some of them include Debretabor, so it is good to utilize Metakaolin as cement replacement material. In this study, the capability of Ethiopian Metakaolin as a partial substitute for cement in C-25 concrete production with 0%, 5%, 10%, 15%, and 20% replacement of PPC by MA with 0.49 percent water to cement ratio is investigated. The study examines; the chemical properties of MA, Physical properties of cement paste, workability, compressive strength, water absorption, density and sulfate attack of concrete was investigated. The chemical composition of Metakaolin was examined and the summation of SiO₂, AlO₃, and FeO₃ is 86.25% and the ash was classified class N pozzolan. The normal consistency percent of water increases as the MA replacement amount increase and both initial and final setting time rang increase as the MA replacement amount increase. On the 28th day, the compressive strength of concrete with MA replacement of 5%, 10%, and 15% exceeds the goal mean strength (33.5Mpa) with compressive strength enhancements of 2.23 %, 4.05 %, and 2.23 %, respectively. Similarly, on the 56th day, 5 %, 10%, and 15% replacement enhance concrete strength by 2.06 %, 3.06 %, and 1.2 %, respectively. The MA mixed concrete has improved significantly in terms of water absorption and sulphate attack, with a 15% replacement level. MA content Metakaolin could possibly replace cement up to 15%, according to the studies. The study's findings will help to offset cement price increases while also boosting house affordability without significantly degrading.

Keywords: metakaolin, compressive strength, sulphate attack, water absorption, N pozzolan

Procedia PDF Downloads 119

Authors: Tadele Tesfay Teame, Tsegaye Abrehame, Hágen István Zsombor

Abstract:

Liquidity is one of the main concerns for banks, and thus achieving the optimum level of liquidity is critical. The main objective of this study is to discover the driving force of selected private commercial banks’ liquidity. In order to achieve the objective explanatory research design and quantitative research approach were used. Data has been collected from a secondary source of the sampled Ethiopian private commercial banks’ financial statements, the National Bank of Ethiopia, and the Minister of Finance, the sample covering the period from 2011 to 2022. Bank-specific and macroeconomic variables were analyzed by using the balanced panel fixed effect regression model. Bank’s liquidity ratio is measured by the total liquid asset to total deposits. The findings of the study revealed that bank size, capital adequacy, loan growth rate, and non-performing loan had a statistically significant impact on private commercial banks’ liquidity, and annual inflation rate and interest rate margin had a statistically significant impact on the liquidity of Ethiopian private commercial banks measured by L1 (bank liquidity). Thus, banks in Ethiopia should not only be concerned about internal structures and policies/procedures, but they must consider both the internal environment and the macroeconomic environment together in developing their strategies to efficiently manage their liquidity position and private commercial banks to maintain their financial proficiency shall have bank liquidity management policy by assimilating both bank-specific and macro-economic variables.

Keywords: liquidity, Ethiopian private commercial banks, liquidity ratio, panel data regression analysis

Procedia PDF Downloads 99

Authors: Bediru Abamecha

Abstract:

Background: Domestic violence is a global problem that occurs regardless of culture, ethnicity or socio-economic class. It is known to be responsible for numerous hospital visits undertaken by women. Violence on pregnant women is a health and social problem that poses particular risks to the woman and her unborn child. Objective: The Objective of this study will be to assess prevalence of domestic violence and its correalates among pregnant women in Manna Woreda of Jimma Zone. Methods: Simple Random Sampling technique will be used to select 12 kebeles (48% of the study area) and Systematic Sampling will be used to reach to the house hold in selected kebeles in manna woreda of Jimma zone, south west Ethiopia from february 15-25, 2011. An in-depth interview will be conducted on Women affairs, police office and Nurses working and minimum of 4FGD with 6-8 members on pregnant women and selected male from the community. SPSS version 16.0 will be used to enter, clean and analyze the data. Descriptive statistics such as mean or median for continuous variables and percent for categorical variables will be made. Bivariate analysis will be used to check the association between independent variables and domestic violence. Variables found to have association with domestic violence will be entered to multiple logistic regressions for controlling the possible effect of confounders and finally the variables which had significance association will be identified on basis of OR, with 95% CI. All statistical significance will be considered at p<0.05. The qualitative data will be summarized manually and thematic analysis will be performed and finally both will be triangulated.

Keywords: ante natal care, ethiopian demographic and health survey, domestic violence, statistical package for social science

Procedia PDF Downloads 518

Authors: Ezgiamn Abraha Hagos

Abstract:

Higher education is important for college students to develop their authentic identity by means of getting exposure to diverse ideas and experiences. However, current college students are not successfully achieving a satisfying sense of meaning and purpose in their lives, which often places them in a state of existential vacuum. Thus, this study uncovers the existential concerns of youth in higher education by means of assessing their view on meaningful life and integration of it as a guide into their lives and challenges faced in doing so. Data were procured from thirty undergraduate students of Addis Ababa University, Ethiopia via interview, naïve sketch method, and content analysis of selected magazines and newspapers. Data were analyzed using organization, immersion, generating themes, coding, offering interpretation as well as checking the data. Relationship, education, and belief were found to be main sources of meaning. But, many of the study participants failed to articulate their meaning in life explicitly and identified to be in a state of drifting. Moreover, hopelessness, economic problems and quality of training impinge their sense of meaning in life negatively. The content analysis principally embodied the youth in higher education as a group of people confronted with rafts of challenges such as debauchery, moral crisis, self-destructive behaviors and hankering for support and direction. Thus, crafting the asset-based approach and counseling services that will prepare the youth for the future and develop holistically in terms of body and mind are tremendously vital.

Keywords: higher education institutions; meaning in life; youth

Procedia PDF Downloads 109

Authors: Akber Oumer Abdurezak

Abstract:

Road traffic accident is a major problem in Ethiopia, resulting in the deaths of many people and potential injuries and crash every year and loss of properties. According to the Federal Transport Authority, one of the main causes of traffic accident and crash in Ethiopia is over speeding. Implementation of different technologies is used to monitor the speed of vehicles in order to minimize accidents and crashes. This research aimed at designing a speed monitoring system to monitor the speed of travelling vehicles and movements, reporting illegal speeds or overspeeding vehicles to the concerned bodies. The implementation of the system is through a wireless sensor network. The proposed system can sense and detect the movement of vehicles, process, and analysis the data obtained from the sensor and the cloud system. The data is sent to the central controlling server. The system contains accelerometer and gyroscope sensors to sense and collect the data of the vehicle. Arduino to process the data and Global System for Mobile Communication (GSM) module for communication purposes to send the data to the concerned body. When the speed of the vehicle exceeds the allowable speed limit, the system sends a message to database as “over speeding”. Both accelerometer and gyroscope sensors are used to collect acceleration data. The acceleration data then convert to speed, and the corresponding speed is checked with the speed limit, and those above the speed limit are reported to the concerned authorities to avoid frequent accidents. The proposed system decreases the occurrence of accidents and crashes due to overspeeding and can be used as an eye opener for the implementation of other intelligent transport system technologies. This system can also integrate with other technologies like GPS and Google Maps to obtain better output.

Keywords: accelerometer, IOT, GSM, gyroscope

Procedia PDF Downloads 75

Authors: Umar Shehu Umar

Abstract:

Contract farming is a viable strategy agribusinesses rely on to strengthen vertical coordination. However, low contract compliance remains a significant setback to agribusinesses' contract performance. The present study aims to understand what drives smallholder farmers’ contract compliance behaviour. Qualitative information was collected through Focus Group Discussions to enrich the design of the survey questionnaire administered on a sample of 300 randomly selected farmers contracted by the Dangote Tomato Processing Plant (DTPP) in four regions of northern Nigeria. Novel transaction level data of tomato sales covering one season were collected in addition to socio-economic information of the sampled farmers. Binary logistic model results revealed that open fresh market tomato prices and payment delays negatively affect farmers' compliance behaviour while quantity harvested, education level and input provision correlated positively with compliance. The study suggests that contract compliance will increase if contracting firms devise a reliable and timely payment plan (e.g., digital payment), continue input and service provisions (e.g., improved seeds, extension services) and incentives (e.g., loyalty rewards, bonuses) in the contract.

Keywords: contract farming, compliance, farmers and processors., smallholder

Procedia PDF Downloads 56

Authors: Yonas Shuke Kitawa

Abstract:

Background: Although malaria incidence has substantially fallen sharply over the past few years, the rate of decline varies by district, time, and malaria type. Despite this turn-down, malaria remains a major public health threat in various districts of Ethiopia. Consequently, the present study is aimed at developing a predictive model that helps to identify the spatio-temporal variation in malaria risk by multiple plasmodium species. Methods: We propose a multivariate spatio-temporal Bayesian model to obtain a more coherent picture of the temporally varying spatial variation in disease risk. The spatial autocorrelation in such a data set is typically modeled by a set of random effects that assign a conditional autoregressive prior distribution. However, the autocorrelation considered in such cases depends on a binary neighborhood matrix specified through the border-sharing rule. Over here, we propose a graph-based optimization algorithm for estimating the neighborhood matrix that merely represents the spatial correlation by exploring the areal units as the vertices of a graph and the neighbor relations as the series of edges. Furthermore, we used aggregated malaria count in southern Ethiopia from August 2013 to May 2019. Results: We recognized that precipitation, temperature, and humidity are positively associated with the malaria threat in the area. On the other hand, enhanced vegetation index, nighttime light (NTL), and distance from coastal areas are negatively associated. Moreover, nonlinear relationships were observed between malaria incidence and precipitation, temperature, and NTL. Additionally, lagged effects of temperature and humidity have a significant effect on malaria risk by either species. More elevated risk of P. falciparum was observed following the rainy season, and unstable transmission of P. vivax was observed in the area. Finally, P. vivax risks are less sensitive to environmental factors than those of P. falciparum. Conclusion: The improved inference was gained by employing the proposed approach in comparison to the commonly used border-sharing rule. Additionally, different covariates are identified, including delayed effects, and elevated risks of either of the cases were observed in districts found in the central and western regions. As malaria transmission operates in a spatially continuous manner, a spatially continuous model should be employed when it is computationally feasible.

Keywords: disease mapping, MSTCAR, graph-based optimization algorithm, P. falciparum, P. vivax, waiting matrix

Procedia PDF Downloads 78