Search results for: population decline
Commenced in January 2007
Frequency: Monthly
Edition: International
Paper Count: 6169

Search results for: population decline

6169 Prevalence of Cognitive Decline in Major Depressive Illness

Authors: U. B. Zubair, A. Kiyani

Abstract:

Introduction: Depressive illness predispose individuals to a lot of physical and mental health issues. Anxiety and substance use disorders have been studied widely as comorbidity. Biological symptoms also now considered part of the depressive spectrum. Cognitive abilities also decline or get affected and need to be looked into in detail in depressed patients. Objective: To determine the prevalence of cognitive decline among patients with major depressive illness and analyze the associated socio-demographic factors. Methods: 190 patients of major depressive illness were included in our study to determine the presence of cognitive decline among them. Depression was diagnosed by a consultant psychiatrist by using the ICD-10 criteria for major depressive disorder. British Columbia Cognitive Complaints Inventory (BC-CCI) was the psychometric tool used to determine the cognitive decline. Sociodemographic profile was recorded and the relationship of various factors with cognitive decline was also ascertained. Findings: 70% of the patients suffering from depression included in this study showed the presence of some degree of cognitive decline, while 30% did not show any evidence of cognitive decline when screened through BCCCI. Statistical testing revealed that the female gender was the only socio-demographic parameter linked significantly with the presence of cognitive decline. Conclusion: Decline in cognitive abilities was found in a significant number of patients suffering from major depression in our sample population. Screening for this parameter f mental function should be done in depression clinics to pick it early.

Keywords: depression, cognitive decline, prevalence, socio-demographic factors

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6168 Assessment of Population Trends of Birds at Taunsa Barrage Wildlife Sanctuary, Pakistan

Authors: Fehmeada Bibi, Shafqat Nawaz Qaisrani, Masood Akhtar, Zulfiqar Ali

Abstract:

Population trends learning is an important tool for conservation programs in rare as well as in common species of birds. A study was conducted to assess annual decline in species of birds and to identify the causes of this decline at Taunsa Barrage wildlife Sanctuary, Punjab, Pakistan. Data were collected by direct census method during wintering and breeding periods (2001 to 2002 and 2008 to 2011). The results indicated an increasing trend in 157, whereas a decreasing trend in 14 species of birds. Among the species with declining trend, there was a 92% decrease in White-backed Vulture (Gyps bengalensis), 60% in Greater Painted Snipe (Rostratula benghalensis), 57% in Garganey (Anas querquedula), Pallas’s Fish Eagle and Long-legged Buzzard (Buteo rufinus) 50% each, 41% in Grey Heron (Ardea cinerea), 39% in Little Cormorant (Phalacrocorax niger), 37% in Gadwall (Anas strepera), 33% in Marsh Harrier (Circus aeruginosus), 30% in Black Drongo (Dicrurus macrocercus) and 26% in Red-crested Pochard (Netta rufina) population. Habitat exploitation, hunting and grazing were found the main causes of this decline. In conclusion, conservation and management of the study area is foremost to interests of declining bird population. It is suggested, therefore, to take immediate steps for the protection of the sanctuary to conserve the declining population of birds.

Keywords: population trends, wildlife sanctuary, bird, habitat exploitation

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6167 Economic Benefit of Wild Animals: A Possible Threat to Conservation in Ovia Southwest, Edo State, Nigeria

Authors: B. G. Oguntuase, M. O. Olofinsae

Abstract:

This study was carried out to assess the contribution of bush meat to Edo people’s livelihood and the consequence of utilization on conservation. Five markets were selected in Ovia Southwest local government area of Edo State, twenty bush meat sellers were selected from each market. Direct observations were made to document the composition of wild animals under sale in the study area. A total of one hundred questionnaires were administered to the respondents. The questionnaires were all retrieved and analyzed using descriptive analysis. The results show that thirteen animal species are being traded in the area. The price for the animal species (whole animal) ranged from N200 to N9,520. Respondents reported that there is a decline in the animal population over time. Between 64% and 95% of the respondents acknowledged population decline in seven of the thirteen animal species available for sale compared to what it used to be some ten years ago. Sales of wild animal species could be regarded as a profitable business in the rural community, supporting livelihood of the community, but could have devastating effect on conservation as already observed in this study if harvesting of wild animals is not regulated on controlled or sustainable basis.

Keywords: conservation, economic benefits, hunting, population, wild animals

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6166 Sense of Involvement and Support in Persons with Cognitive Decline in Ordinary Dwelling

Authors: Annika Kjallman Alm, Ove Hellzen, Malin Rising-Holmstrom

Abstract:

Worldwide, the number of people who are living with dementia is increasing because of an aging population, which leads to increased financial and social costs, including reduced quality of life for people with dementia and their care partners. Most people who have dementia reside in the community. Aging in place could be described as having the health and social supports and services you need to live safely and independently in your home or your society for as long as you wish and are able. People with dementia are not different than people without dementia where they want to remain at home, if possible, with a sense of familiarity and engagement in typical everyday activities. So how do persons with dementia or cognitive decline see their possibilities to be socially involved and experience support? The aim of this study was to explore persons with cognitive decline's sense of involvement and support living in the ordinary dwelling. The study was approved by the Ethical Review Authority in Sweden prior to the interviews. Interviews were conducted with 20 persons living at home, either alone or in a relationship. The persons had perceived cognitive decline; some were under investigation or already had a diagnose of early dementia. Thematic analysis was used to identify, analyze, and report patterns within the data. Researchers extracted three main themes through participants’ interviews: a) Importance of social involvement with family and friends. b) Hindrances for social involvement. c) Struggling mentally with a new life situation. Results found that going to activity centers, staying involved, and meeting friends and family enhanced the sense of involvement and support. There were also hindrances to a sense of involvement and support as they struggled with the diagnose and the changes in daily life, such as physical problems, mental problems, or economic issues. The mental struggle of accepting the cognitive decline and the changes in daily life it brought was also an issue for some of the participants. A multidimensional support should be provided by the community to enable persons with cognitive decline to stay involved in family and community in the comfort of their own homes.

Keywords: aging in place, cognitive decline, dementia, sense of involvement

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6165 The Reasons for the Continuous Decline in the Quality of Higher Education in Iran, with a Case Study of Students at Tehran University Law School

Authors: Mohammad Matin

Abstract:

Nowadays, one of the basic problems of higher education is a significant decline in the quality of education and reduction in efficiency of training. These research and studies are aiming to assess affecting factors of the erosion of academic quality, including educational environmental and content, social and economic factors, elements of the training, elements of education, family factors, from the perspective of students. The result of such improper competition, totally, has led to the decline of education quality in higher education centers, and in many aspects. The results showed a significant difference between male and female students' perspective for two areas of social and economic factors.

Keywords: higher education, decline, the quality of education, student

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6164 Smartphone Addiction and Reaction Time in Geriatric Population

Authors: Anjali N. Shete, G. D. Mahajan, Nanda Somwanshi

Abstract:

Context: Smartphones are the new generation of mobile phones; they have emerged over the last few years. Technology has developed so much that it has become part of our life and mobile phones are one of them. These smartphones are equipped with the capabilities to display photos, play games, watch videos and navigation, etc. The advances have a huge impact on many walks of life. The adoption of new technology has been challenging for the elderly. But, the elder population is also moving towards digitally connected lives. As age advances, there is a decline in the motor and cognitive functions of the brain, and hence the reaction time is affected. The study was undertaken to assess the usefulness of smartphones in improving cognitive functions. Aims and Objectives: The aim of the study was to observe the effects of smartphone addiction on reaction time in elderly population Material and Methods: This is an experimental study. 100 elderly subjects were enrolled in this study randomly from urban areas. They all were using smartphones for several hours a day. They were divided into two groups according to the scores of the mobile phone addiction scale (MPAS). Simple reaction time was estimated by the Ruler drop method. The reaction time was then calculated for each subject in both groups. The data were analyzed using mean, standard deviation, and Pearson correlation test. Results: The mean reaction time in Group A is 0.27+ 0.040 and in Group B is 0.20 + 0.032. The values show a statistically significant change in reaction time. Conclusion: Group A with a high MPAS score has a low reaction time compared to Group B with a low MPAS score. Hence, it can be concluded that the use of smartphones in the elderly is useful, delaying the neurological decline, and smarten the brain.

Keywords: smartphones, MPAS, reaction time, elderly population

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6163 Demographic Dividend Explained by Infrastructure Costs of Population Growth Rate, Distinct from Age Dependency

Authors: Jane N. O'Sullivan

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Although it is widely believed that fertility decline has benefitted economic advancement, particularly in East and South-East Asian countries, the causal mechanisms for this stimulus are contested. Since the turn of this century, demographic dividend theory has been increasingly recognised, hypothesising that higher proportions of working-age people can contribute to economic expansion if conditions are met to employ them productively. Population growth rate, as a systemic condition distinct from age composition, has not been similar attention since the 1970s and has lacked methodology for quantitative assessment. This paper explores conceptual and empirical quantification of the burden of expanding physical capital to accommodate a growing population. In proof-of-concept analyses of Australia and the United Kingdom, actual expenditure on gross fixed capital formation was compiled over four decades and apportioned to maintenance/turnover or expansion to accommodate population growth, based on lifespan of capital assets and population growth rate. In both countries, capital expansion was estimated to cost 6.5-7.0% of GDP per 1% population growth rate. This opportunity cost impedes the improvement of per capita capacity needed to realise the potential of the working-age population. Economic modelling of demographic scenarios have to date omitted this channel of influence; the implications of its inclusion are discussed.

Keywords: age dependency, demographic dividend, infrastructure, population growth rate

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6162 Contribution of Family Planning Effort to Demographic and Macroeconomic Outcomes in High Fertility Countries: A Longitudinal Study

Authors: Jane N. O'Sullivan

Abstract:

In most studies relating change in fertility to potentially causal factors (such as girls’ educational attainment, infant mortality or urbanization), the presence or nature of family planning efforts are not examined, potentially misattributing their contributions. Modest impacts of voluntary family planning programs on fertility change have been claimed, citing the near-term effects of historical quasi-experimental projects – notably in Bangladesh and in Ghana – where recipients and non-recipients could be contrasted. By their nature, such experiments lacked the wider cultural impacts of national programs. Concurrently, analyses relating population growth with economic advancement have been equivocal, discrediting previous widespread concern which prevailed before the 1980s. This neutral view has been revised more recently with demographic dividend theory crediting higher working-age proportion with some economic stimulus if supported by sufficient institutional and human capacity. In this study of country-level data, cross-country comparisons spanning six decades relate fertility decline with family planning effort, GDP per capita and female education, finding that the timing of rapid fertility decline aligns with commencement of voluntary family planning programs, while economic betterment came after substantial fertility fall. The relationship between fertility and primary education completion was inconsistent, with potential channels of causation operating in both directions. GDP per capita was unrelated to rate of fertility decline, but total fertility rates above three children per woman strongly impeded enrichment. By synchronizing countries with respect to their fertility transition, strong relationships are revealed which suggest lower fertility enables economic betterment, rather than the other way around. These results argue in favour of elevating voluntary family planning as a development priority.

Keywords: economic advance, family planning effort, fertility decline, population growth rate

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6161 Study and Historical Rooting the Causes of the Decline of Islamic Civilization (Case Study: From the 11th Century to the Contemporary Era)

Authors: Sajjad Shalsouz, Hamid karamipour

Abstract:

Islamic civilization after a period of glory in the ninth and tenth centuries AD, known as the Islamic Renaissance, stagnated and declined from the eleventh century, despite the political and military power of Islamic governments, faced a scientific and cultural decline in later, foreign invaders such as the Mongol invasion, the Crusades, and Timur invasions also caused severe political, social, and economic instability, some of which were never remedied. Lack of growth of intellectual sciences in Islamic societies, which is necessary for the growth and development of any civilization, and lack of attention of the ruling class and the masses to this important factor, the tyranny of kings, social and economic turmoil from the thirteenth century onwards, absence of Islamic societies from global developments all intensified and stabilized the decline Islamic civilizations, the consequences of which are still evident. This article tries to deal with the historical factors of this decline and decadence from the 11th century to the contemporary era by examining historical events and issues and achieves a desirable and efficient result in this field.

Keywords: Islamic civilization, decline, historical factors, intellectual sciences

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6160 Effects of Aging on Ultra: Triathlon Performance

Authors: Richard S. Jatau, Kankanala Venkateswarlu, Bulus Kpame

Abstract:

The purpose of this critical review is to find out what is known and what is unknown about the effects of aging on endurance performance, especially on ultra- triathlon performance. It has been shown that among master’s athlete’s peak levels of performance decreased by 50% by age 50 it has also been clearly revealed that age associated atrophy, weakness and fatigability cannot be halted, although year round athletic training can slow down this age associated decline. Studies have further revealed that 30% to 50% decrease in skeletal muscle mass between ages 40 and 80 years, which is accompanied by an equal or even greater decline in strength and power and an increase in muscle weakness and fatigability. Studies on ultra- triathlon athletes revealed that 30 to 39 year old showed fastest time, with athletes in younger and older age groups were slower. It appears that the length of the endurance performance appears to influence age related endurance performance decline in short distance triathlons. A significant decline seems to start at the age of 40 to 50 years, whereas in long distance triathlons this decline seems to start after the age of 65 years. However, it is not clear whether this decline is related in any way to the training methods used, the duration of training, or the frequency of training. It’s also not clear whether the triathlon athletes experience more injuries due to long hours of training. It’s also not clear whether these athletes used performance enhancing drugs to enhance their performance. It’s not also clear whiles there has been tremendous increase in the number of athletes specializing in triathlon. On the basis of our experience and available research evidence we have provided answers to some of these questions. We concluded that aging associated decline in ultra–endurance performance is inevitable although it can be slowed down.

Keywords: aging, triathlon, atrophy, endurance

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6159 Characteristics of Regional Issues in Local Municipalities of Japan in Consideration of Socio-Economic Condition

Authors: Akiko Kondo, Akio Kondo

Abstract:

We are facing serious problems related to a long-term depopulation and an aging society with a falling birth rate in Japan. In this situation, we are suffering from a shortfall in human resources as well as a shortage of workforce in rural regions. In addition, we are struggling with a protracted economic slump and excess concentration of population in the Tokyo Metropolitan area. It is an urgent national issue to consider how to live in this country and what kind of structure of society and administration policy is needed. It is necessary to clarify people’s desire for their way of living and social assistance to be provided. The aim of this study is to clarify the characteristics of regional issues and the degree of their seriousness in local municipalities of Japan. We conducted a questionnaire survey about regional agenda in all local municipalities in Japan. We obtained responses concerning the degree of seriousness of regional issues and degree of importance of policies. Based on the data gathered from the survey, it is apparent that many local municipalities are facing an aging population and declining population. We constructed a model to analyze factors for declining population. Using the model, it was clarified that a population’s age structure, job opportunities, and income level affect the decline of population. In addition, we showed the way of the evaluation of the state of a local municipality.

Keywords: evaluation, local municipality, regional analysis, regional issue

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6158 The Effects of Cardiovascular Risk on Age-Related Cognitive Decline in Healthy Older Adults

Authors: A. Badran, M. Hollocks, H. Markus

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Background: Common risk factors for cardiovascular disease are associated with age-related cognitive decline. There has been much interest in treating modifiable cardiovascular risk factors in the hope of reducing cognitive decline. However, there is currently no validated neuropsychological test to assess the subclinical cognitive effects of vascular risk. The Brief Memory and Executive Test (BMET) is a clinical screening tool, which was originally designed to be sensitive and specific to Vascular Cognitive Impairment (VCI), an impairment characterised by decline in frontally-mediated cognitive functions (e.g. Executive Function and Processing Speed). Objective: To cross-sectionally assess the validity of the BMET as a measure of the subclinical effects of vascular risk on cognition, in an otherwise healthy elderly cohort. Methods: Data from 346 participants (57 ± 10 years) without major neurological or psychiatric disorders were included in this study, gathered as part of a previous multicentre validation study for the BMET. Framingham Vascular Age was used as a surrogate measure of vascular risk, incorporating several established risk factors. Principal Components Analysis of the subtests was used to produce common constructs: an index for Memory and another for Executive Function/Processing Speed. Univariate General Linear models were used to relate Vascular Age to performance on Executive Function/Processing Speed and Memory subtests of the BMET, adjusting for Age, Premorbid Intelligence and Ethnicity. Results: Adverse vascular risk was associated with poorer performance on both the Memory and Executive Function/Processing Speed indices, adjusted for Age, Premorbid Intelligence and Ethnicity (p=0.011 and p<0.001, respectively). Conclusions: Performance on the BMET reflects the subclinical effects of vascular risk on cognition, in age-related cognitive decline. Vascular risk is associated with decline in both Executive Function/Processing Speed and Memory groups of subtests. Future studies are needed to explore whether treating vascular risk factors can effectively reduce age-related cognitive decline.

Keywords: age-related cognitive decline, vascular cognitive impairment, subclinical cerebrovascular disease, cognitive aging

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6157 Understanding the Linkages of Human Development and Fertility Change in Districts of Uttar Pradesh

Authors: Mamta Rajbhar, Sanjay K. Mohanty

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India's progress in achieving replacement level of fertility is largely contingent on fertility reduction in the state of Uttar Pradesh as it accounts 17% of India's population with a low level of development. Though the TFR in the state has declined from 5.1 in 1991 to 3.4 by 2011, it conceals large differences in fertility level across districts. Using data from multiple sources this paper tests the hypothesis that the improvement in human development significantly reduces the fertility levels in districts of Uttar Pradesh. The unit of analyses is district, and fertility estimates are derived using the reverse survival method(RSM) while human development indices(HDI) are are estimated using uniform methodology adopted by UNDP for three period. The correlation and linear regression models are used to examine the relationship of fertility change and human development indices across districts. Result show the large variation and significant change in fertility level among the districts of Uttar Pradesh. During 1991-2011, eight districts had experienced a decline of TFR by 10-20%, 30 districts by 20-30% and 32 districts had experienced decline of more than 30%. On human development aspect, 17 districts recorded increase of more than 0.170 in HDI, 18 districts in the range of 0.150-0.170, 29 districts between 0.125-0.150 and six districts in the range of 0.1-0.125 during 1991-2011. Study shows significant negative relationship between HDI and TFR. HDI alone explains 70% variation in TFR. Also, the regression coefficient of TFR and HDI has become stronger over time; from -0.524 in 1991, -0.7477 by 2001 and -0.7181 by 2010. The regression analyses indicate that 0.1 point increase in HDI value will lead to 0.78 point decline in TFR. The HDI alone explains 70% variation in TFR. Improving the HDI will certainly reduce the fertility level in the districts.

Keywords: Fertility, HDI, Uttar Pradesh

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6156 Genetic Assessment of The Managed Gharial Population In The Girwa River, India

Authors: Surya Prasad Sharma, Suyash Katdare, Syed Ainul Hussain

Abstract:

Human-induced factors contributed to the population decline of crocodylians in India which became evident by the mid-20th century when authorities forewarned the extinction risk for the crocodile and proposed regulation in the crocodile trade. The proposed action led to the enactment of national and international wildlife regulations to prohibit the trade-in of crocodile skins and parts. Subsequently, conservation translocation programs were initiated to restore the species in the wild through a 'head-start' approach. In India, the crocodile conservation program, which began in the early 1970s, has been one of India's longest-running conservation initiatives. The gharial (Gavialis gangeticus) population has benefitted, and the gharial number increased rapidly owing to these efforts. The immediate risk of extinction was averted as the gharial has recovered due to decades-long cumulative conservation efforts, the consideration of the genetic for monitoring the recovery of the recovered populations is still lacking. Hence, we assessed the genetic diversity of the Girwa gharial population in India using six polymorphic nuclear microsatellites loci and mitochondrial control region. The number of alleles per loci ranged between 2 to 5, and the allelic richness (Ar) was 2.67 ± 0.49, and the observed (Ho) and expected (He) heterozygosities were 0.42 ± 0.08 and 0.42 ± 0.09, respectively. The M-ratio yielded a value of (0.41 ± 0.16) lower than critical M, suggesting a genetic bottleneck in the Girwa population. We observed more mitochondrial control region haplotypes in the Girwa population than previously reported in the largest gharial population in the Chambal River. Overall, our study indicates that genetic diversity remains low despite the recovery in the Girwa population. Hence, we recommend a range-wide genetic assessment of gharial populations using high-throughput techniques to identify the source population and plan future translocation programs.

Keywords: conservation translocation, recovery, crocodile, bottleneck

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6155 A Study of Life Expectancy in an Urban Set up of North-Eastern India under Dynamic Consideration Incorporating Cause Specific Mortality

Authors: Mompi Sharma, Labananda Choudhury, Anjana M. Saikia

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Background: The period life table is entirely based on the assumption that the mortality patterns of the population existing in the given period will persist throughout their lives. However, it has been observed that the mortality rate continues to decline. As such, if the rates of change of probabilities of death are considered in a life table then we get a dynamic life table. Although, mortality has been declining in all parts of India, one may be interested to know whether these declines had appeared more in an urban area of underdeveloped regions like North-Eastern India. So, attempt has been made to know the mortality pattern and the life expectancy under dynamic scenario in Guwahati, the biggest city of North Eastern India. Further, if the probabilities of death changes then there is a possibility that its different constituent probabilities will also change. Since cardiovascular disease (CVD) is the leading cause of death in Guwahati. Therefore, an attempt has also been made to formulate dynamic cause specific death ratio and probabilities of death due to CVD. Objectives: To construct dynamic life table for Guwahati for the year 2011 based on the rates of change of probabilities of death over the previous 10 and 25 years (i.e.,2001 and 1986) and to compute corresponding dynamic cause specific death ratio and probabilities of death due to CVD. Methodology and Data: The study uses the method proposed by Denton and Spencer (2011) to construct dynamic life table for Guwahati. So, the data from the Office of the Birth and Death, Guwahati Municipal Corporation for the years 1986, 2001 and 2011 are taken. The population based data are taken from 2001 and 2011 census (India). However, the population data for 1986 has been estimated. Also, the cause of death ratio and probabilities of death due to CVD are computed for the aforementioned years and then extended to dynamic set up for the year 2011 by considering the rates of change of those probabilities over the previous 10 and 25 years. Findings: The dynamic life expectancy at birth (LEB) for Guwahati is found to be higher than the corresponding values in the period table by 3.28 (5.65) years for males and 8.30 (6.37) years for females during the period of 10 (25) years. The life expectancies under dynamic consideration in all the other age groups are also seen higher than the usual life expectancies, which may be possible due to gradual decline in probabilities of death since 1986-2011. Further, a continuous decline has also been observed in death ratio due to CVD along with cause specific probabilities of death for both sexes. As a consequence, dynamic cause of death probability due to CVD is found to be less in comparison to usual procedure. Conclusion: Since incorporation of changing mortality rates in period life table for Guwahati resulted in higher life expectancies and lower probabilities of death due to CVD, this would possibly bring out the real situation of deaths prevailing in the city.

Keywords: cause specific death ratio, cause specific probabilities of death, dynamic, life expectancy

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6154 Using Eigenvalues and Eigenvectors in Population Growth and Stability Obtaining

Authors: Abubakar Sadiq Mensah

Abstract:

The Knowledge of the population growth of a nation is paramount to national planning. The population of a place is studied and a model developed over a period of time, Matrices is used to form model for population growth. The eigenvalue ƛ of the matrix A and its corresponding eigenvector X is such that AX = ƛX is calculated. The stable age distribution of the population is obtained using the eigenvalue and the characteristic polynomial. Hence, estimation could be made using eigenvalues and eigenvectors.

Keywords: eigenvalues, eigenvectors, population, growth/stability

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6153 Mathematics Model Approaching: Parameter Estimation of Transmission Dynamics of HIV and AIDS in Indonesia

Authors: Endrik Mifta Shaiful, Firman Riyudha

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Acquired Immunodeficiency Syndrome (AIDS) is one of the world's deadliest diseases caused by the Human Immunodeficiency Virus (HIV) that infects white blood cells and cause a decline in the immune system. AIDS quickly became a world epidemic disease that affects almost all countries. Therefore, mathematical modeling approach to the spread of HIV and AIDS is needed to anticipate the spread of HIV and AIDS which are widespread. The purpose of this study is to determine the parameter estimation on mathematical models of HIV transmission and AIDS using cumulative data of people with HIV and AIDS each year in Indonesia. In this model, there are parameters of r ∈ [0,1) which is the effectiveness of the treatment in patients with HIV. If the value of r is close to 1, the number of people with HIV and AIDS will decline toward zero. The estimation results indicate when the value of r is close to unity, there will be a significant decline in HIV patients, whereas in AIDS patients constantly decreases towards zero.

Keywords: HIV, AIDS, parameter estimation, mathematical models

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6152 A Study of Population Growth Models and Future Population of India

Authors: Sheena K. J., Jyoti Badge, Sayed Mohammed Zeeshan

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A Comparative Study of Exponential and Logistic Population Growth Models in India India is the second most populous city in the world, just behind China, and is going to be in the first place by next year. The Indian population has remarkably at higher rate than the other countries from the past 20 years. There were many scientists and demographers who has formulated various models of population growth in order to study and predict the future population. Some of the models are Fibonacci population growth model, Exponential growth model, Logistic growth model, Lotka-Volterra model, etc. These models have been effective in the past to an extent in predicting the population. However, it is essential to have a detailed comparative study between the population models to come out with a more accurate one. Having said that, this research study helps to analyze and compare the two population models under consideration - exponential and logistic growth models, thereby identifying the most effective one. Using the census data of 2011, the approximate population for 2016 to 2031 are calculated for 20 Indian states using both the models, compared and recorded the data with the actual population. On comparing the results of both models, it is found that logistic population model is more accurate than the exponential model, and using this model, we can predict the future population in a more effective way. This will give an insight to the researchers about the effective models of population and how effective these population models are in predicting the future population.

Keywords: population growth, population models, exponential model, logistic model, fibonacci model, lotka-volterra model, future population prediction, demographers

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6151 Advancing Our Understanding of Age-Related Changes in Executive Functions: Insights from Neuroimaging, Genetics and Cognitive Neurosciences

Authors: Yasaman Mohammadi

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Executive functions are a critical component of goal-directed behavior, encompassing a diverse set of cognitive processes such as working memory, cognitive flexibility, and inhibitory control. These functions are known to decline with age, but the precise mechanisms underlying this decline remain unclear. This paper provides an in-depth review of recent research investigating age-related changes in executive functions, drawing on insights from neuroimaging, genetics, and cognitive neuroscience. Through an interdisciplinary approach, this paper offers a nuanced understanding of the complex interplay between neural mechanisms, genetic factors, and cognitive processes that contribute to executive function decline in aging. Here, we investigate how different neuroimaging methods, like functional magnetic resonance imaging (fMRI) and positron emission tomography (PET), have helped scientists better understand the brain bases for age-related declines in executive function. Additionally, we discuss the role of genetic factors in mediating individual differences in executive functions across the lifespan, as well as the potential for cognitive interventions to mitigate age-related decline. Overall, this paper presents a comprehensive and integrative view of the current state of knowledge regarding age-related changes in executive functions. It underscores the need for continued interdisciplinary research to fully understand the complex and dynamic nature of executive function decline in aging, with the ultimate goal of developing effective interventions to promote healthy cognitive aging.

Keywords: executive functions, aging, neuroimaging, cognitive neuroscience, working memory, cognitive training

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6150 Interspecific Hybridization in Natural Sturgeon Populations of the Eastern Black Sea: The Consequence of Drastic Population Decline

Authors: Tamar Beridze, Elisa Boscari, Fleur Scheele, Tamari Edisherashvili, Cort Anderson, Leonardo Congiu

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The eastern part of the Black Sea and its tributaries are suitable habitats for several sturgeon species, among which Acipenser gueldenstaedtii, A. stellatus, A. nudiventris, A. persicus, A. sturio, and H. huso are well documented. However, different threats have led these species to a dramatic decline; all of them are currently listed as Critically Endangered and some Locally Extinct in that area. We tested 94 wild sturgeon samples from the Black Sea and Rioni River by analyzing the mitochondrial Control Region and nuclear markers for hybrid identification. The data analyses (1) assessed mitochondrial diversity among samples, (2) identified their species, as well as (3) indicated instances of hybridization. The data collected, besides confirming a sharp decrease of catches of Beluga and Stellate sturgeon in recent years, also revealed four juvenile hybrids between Russian and Stellate sturgeon, providing the first evidence of natural interspecific hybridization in the Rioni. The present communication raises concerns about the status of sturgeon species in this area and underlines the urgent need for conservation programs to restore self-sustaining populations.

Keywords: black sea, sturgeon, Rioni river, interspecific hybridization

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6149 Education as a Factor Which Reduces Poverty

Authors: E. V. Fakhrutdinova, Y. S. Kolesnikova, E. A. Karasik, V. M. Zagidullina

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Poverty as the social and economic phenomenon exists in any society and represents a many-sided problem. In this sense it is universal and for many centuries serves as a research objects for scientists. Special attention to a problem of poverty in Russia is caused, first of all, by the critical growth of inequality and by scales of expansion of poverty, considerable decrease in the level and quality of life of the population, decrease in availability of education during the period of reforming. The expansion of poverty on the working members of society, youth, which has to provide reproduction of the population is alarming. As poverty is the reason of weakening of national security of the country, degradation of the population, decline in the quality of the human capital, complication of a demographic situation, strengthening of social contradictions in society, so far as the reduction of poverty, so, the increase in production. Poverty: the characteristic of an economic situation of the individual or social group at which they can't satisfy certain minimum requirements necessary for life, preservations of working capacity and reproduction. Poverty became one of the critical factors expelling people from the system of the institutional interactions reducing social space in which their relations were building breaking their social identity. Complication of the problem of poverty in modern society happened due to penetration of the related relations into many spheres of life. It is known that negative consequences of poverty display not only at the personal level of the poor person, but also at the level of interpersonal social interactions, decline in the quality and level of development of the human capital, and also at social and economic system in general. We conducted a research on the influence of education on the change of poverty level of the population. We consider education as a resource for an increase of the income and social mobility. Dependence of the income of the population on the level of education, availability of education (level of education and quality of education) on the level of income of families is found. Differentiation of quality and number of educational services for children depending on the level of the income of families is revealed. Influence of a factor of poverty on the availability of education is also studied. We consider expenses on education as the limiter of access to education. We consider education as a factor of fixation and aggravation of a property inequality. In the solution of problems of poverty the defining condition is the state regulation of social and economic development by means of creation of the effective institutional environment. The state has to develop measures for an increase of availability of various services to all categories of citizens, in particular services of health care and education, especially for poor citizens enters. The special attention regarding an increase of availability of education services has to be paid to creation of system of social elevators.

Keywords: poverty, education, human capital, quality of life

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6148 Fear of Falling and Subjective Cognitive Decline Are Predictors of Fall Risk in Community-dwelling Older Adults Living in Low-income Settings

Authors: Ladda Thiamwong, Renata Komalasari

Abstract:

Falls are the leading cause of disability and hospitalization in low-income older adults. Fear of falling is present in 20% to 85 % of older adults and has been identified as an independent risk factor of fall risk, activity restriction, and loss of independence. About 12% of American older adults have subjective cognitive decline. Cognitive impairment is also an established factor of fall risk. However, it is unclear whether measures of fear of falling and subjective cognitive decline have the greatest association with fall risk in low-income older adults. The aim of this study was to evaluate the association between fear of falling, subjective cognitive decline-functional performance (SCD-FP), and fall risk using simple screening tools. In this cross-section study, we collected data from community-dwelling older adults 60 years or older in low-income settings in Central Florida, and 86 participants were included in the data analysis. Fear of falling was assessed by the Short Fall Efficacy Scale- International (Short FES-I) with seven items. Subjective cognitive decline-functional performance (SCD-FP) was assessed by a self-reported experience of worsening or more frequent confusion or memory loss in the past 12 months and its functional implications. Fall risk was evaluated by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC)'s Stay Independent checklist with 12 items. The majority of participants were female, and more than half of the participants were African American. More than half of the participants had a higher school degree or higher, and less than 20% had no financial problems. Less than 30% of the participants perceived their general health as very good- excellent. More than half of the participants lived alone, and less than 15% lived with a partner or spouse. About 60% of the participants had hypertension, 40% had diabetes, 16% had cancer, and 50% had arthritis. About 30% of the participants had difficulty walking up ten steps without resting, more than 40% felt unsteady when walking, and 30% had been advised to use a cane or walker to get around safely. Regression analysis showed that fall risk was associated with fear of falling ( = .524, p <.001) and subjective cognitive decline-functional performance ( = .465, p =.027). The structure coefficient showed that fear of falling (rs2 = .922) was a stronger predictor of fall risk than subjective cognitive decline-functional performance (rs2= .200). Fear of falling and subjective cognitive decline-functional performance are growing public health issues, and addressing those issues is a public priority. Proactive screening for fear of falling and subjective cognitive decline-functional performance is critical in fall prevention. A combination of all three self-reported tools (Short FES-I, SCD-FP, and CDC's Stay Independent checklist) takes less than 5 minutes to complete. Primary care providers or public health professionals should consider including these tools to screen fear of falling and subjective cognitive decline-functional performance as part of fall risk assessment, especially in low-income settings. Thus, encouraging older adults and healthcare professionals to discuss fear of falling, subjective cognitive decline, and fall risk during routine medical office visits.

Keywords: falls, fall risk, fear of falling, cognition, subjective cognitive decline, low-income, older adults, community, screening, nursing, primary care

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6147 Relation between Copper, Lipid Profile, and Cognition in Elderly Jordanians

Authors: Eman Al-khateeba, Ebaa Al-Zayadneha, Osama Al-Dalahmahb, Zeinab Alawadib, Faisal Khatiba, Randa Naffaa, Yanal Shafagoj

Abstract:

The purpose of the current study was to examine the association of plasma copper and lipid concentrations with changes in cognitive function in elderly Jordanian individuals. The study population consisted of two groups; 52 subjects with dementia, and 50 controls. All individuals were screened with Mini-Mental State Examination (MMSE) and Clock drawing test (CDT).Serum copper and lipid profile were assessed in all subjects, and the results were statistically evaluated at P < 0.05 level of significance. Dementia group had 10.1 % higher copper levels than controls however the difference was not statistically significant. No significant differences could be found between the two groups in lipid profile levels. There was no significant correlation between serum copper, lipid profile and cognitive decline in elderly Jordanians. Demographic variables indicate that educational level less than 12 years and illiterate demonstrated a 3.29 fold (p=0.026) and 6.29 fold (p=0.002) increase in risk of developing dementia, respectively. While coffee intake showed a protective effect against cognitive decline with 6.25 fold lower risk with increased coffee intake.

Keywords: copper, cholesterol, dementia, Alzheimer's disease, lipid profile, coffee

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6146 Relations of Progression in Cognitive Decline with Initial EEG Resting-State Functional Network in Mild Cognitive Impairment

Authors: Chia-Feng Lu, Yuh-Jen Wang, Yu-Te Wu, Sui-Hing Yan

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This study aimed at investigating whether the functional brain networks constructed using the initial EEG (obtained when patients first visited hospital) can be correlated with the progression of cognitive decline calculated as the changes of mini-mental state examination (MMSE) scores between the latest and initial examinations. We integrated the time–frequency cross mutual information (TFCMI) method to estimate the EEG functional connectivity between cortical regions, and the network analysis based on graph theory to investigate the organization of functional networks in aMCI. Our finding suggested that higher integrated functional network with sufficient connection strengths, dense connection between local regions, and high network efficiency in processing information at the initial stage may result in a better prognosis of the subsequent cognitive functions for aMCI. In conclusion, the functional connectivity can be a useful biomarker to assist in prediction of cognitive declines in aMCI.

Keywords: cognitive decline, functional connectivity, MCI, MMSE

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6145 Iran’s Sexual and Reproductive Rights Roll-Back: An Overview of Iran’s New Population Policies

Authors: Raha Bahreini

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This paper discusses the roll-back of women’s sexual and reproductive rights in the Islamic Republic of Iran, which has come in the wake of a striking shift in the country’s official population policies. Since the late 1980s, Iran has won worldwide praise for its sexual and reproductive health and services, which have contributed to a steady decline in the country’s fertility rate–from 7.0 births per women in 1980 to 5.5 in 1988, 2.8 in 1996 and 1.85 in 2014. This is owed to a significant increase in the voluntary use of modern contraception in both rural and urban areas. In 1976, only 37 per cent of women were using at least one method of contraception; by 2014 this figure had reportedly risen to a high of nearly 79 per cent for married girls and women living in urban areas and 73.78 per cent for those living in rural areas. Such progress may soon be halted. In July 2012, Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Sayed Ali Khamenei denounced Iran’s family planning policies as an imitation of Western lifestyle. He exhorted the authorities to increase Iran’s population to 150 to 200 million (from around 78.5 million), including by cutting subsidies for contraceptive methods and dismantling the state’s Family and Population Planning Programme. Shortly thereafter, Iran’s Minister of Health and Medical Education announced the scrapping of the budget for the state-funded Family and Population Planning Programme. Iran’s Parliament subsequently introduced two bills; the Comprehensive Population and Exaltation of Family Bill (Bill 315), and the Bill to Increase Fertility Rates and Prevent Population Decline (Bill 446). Bill 446 outlaws voluntary tubectomies, which are believed to be the second most common method of modern contraception in Iran, and blocks access to information about contraception, denying women the opportunity to make informed decisions about the number and spacing of their children. Coupled with the elimination of state funding for Iran’s Family and Population Programme, the move would undoubtedly result in greater numbers of unwanted pregnancies, forcing more women to seek illegal and unsafe abortions. Bill 315 proposes various discriminatory measures in the areas of employment, divorce, and protection from domestic violence in order to promote a culture wherein wifedom and child-bearing is seen as women’s primary duty. The Bill, for example, instructs private and public entities to prioritize, in sequence, men with children, married men without children and married women with children when hiring for certain jobs. It also bans the recruitment of single individuals as family law lawyers, public and private school teachers and members of the academic boards of universities and higher education institutes. The paper discusses the consequences of these initiatives which would, if continued, set the human rights of women and girls in Iran back by decades, leaving them with a future shaped by increased inequality, discrimination, poor health, limited choices and restricted freedoms, in breach of Iran’s international human rights obligations.

Keywords: family planning and reproductive health, gender equality and empowerment of women, human rights, population growth

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6144 Trend and Cuses of Decline in Trifoliate Yam (Dioscorea dumentorum) Production in Enugu State, Nigeria: Implication for Food Security and Biodiversity Conservation

Authors: J. C. Iwuchukwu, K. C. Okwor

Abstract:

In recent time and in the study area, yam farmers are moving into less laborious and more economical crops and very few yam farmers are growing trifoliate yam. In yam markets, little or no bitter yam is displayed or sold. The work was therefore designed to ascertain trend and causes of decline in trifoliate yam production in Enugu state. Three agricultural zones, six blocks, eighteen circles and one hundred and eight trifoliate yam farmers that were purposively selected constituted sample for the study. An interview schedule was used to collect data while percentage, mean score and standard deviation were used for data analysis. Findings of the study revealed that the respondents had no extension contact, Majority (90.7%) sourced information on trifoliate yam from neighbours/friends/relatives and produced mainly for consumption (67.6%) during rainy season (70.4%). Trifoliate yam was produced manually(71.3%) and organically (58.3%) in a mixture of other crops (87%) using indigenous/local varieties (73.1%). Mean size of land allocated to trifoliate yam production was relatively steady, mean cost of input and income were increasing while output was decreasing within the years under consideration (before 2001 to 2014). Poor/lack of finance(M=1.8) and drudgery associated with trifoliate yam product(M=1.72) were some of the causes of decline in trifoliate yam production in the area. The study recommended that more research and public enlightenment campaigns on the importance of trifoliate yam should be carried out to encourage and consolidate farmers and the masses effort in production and consumption of the crop so that it will not go extinct and then contribute to food security.

Keywords: causes, decline, trend, trifoliate yam

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6143 Fungi Associated with Decline of Kikar (Acacia nilotica) and Red River Gum (Eucalyptus camaldulensis) in Faisalabad

Authors: I. Ahmad, A. Hannan, S. Ahmad, M. Asif, M. F. Nawaz, M. A. Tanvir, M. F. Azhar

Abstract:

During this research, a comprehensive survey of tree growing areas of Faisalabad district of Pakistan was conducted to observe the symptoms, spectrum, occurrence and severity of A. nilotica and E. camaldulensis decline. Objective of current research was to investigate specific fungal pathogens involved in decline of A. nilotica and E. camaldulensis. For this purpose, infected roots, bark, neck portion, stem, branches, leaves and infected soils were collected to identify associated fungi. Potato dextrose agar (PDA) and Czepak dox agar media were used for isolations. Identification of isolated fungi was done microscopically and different fungi were identified. During survey of urban locations of Faisalabad, disease incidence on Kikar and Eucalyptus was recorded as 3.9-7.9% and 2.6-7.1% respectively. Survey of Agroforest zones of Faisalabad revealed decline incidence on kikar 7.5% from Sargodha road while on Satiana and Jhang road it was not planted. In eucalyptus trees, 4%, 8% and 0% disease incidence was observed on Jhang road, Sargodha road and Satiana road respectively. The maximum fungus isolated from the kikar tree was Drechslera australiensis (5.00%) from the stem part. Aspergillus flavus also gave the maximum value of (3.05%) from the bark. Alternaria alternata gave the maximum value of (2.05%) from leaves. Rhizopus and Mucor spp. were recorded minimum as compared to the Drechslera, Alternaria and Aspergillus. The maximum fungus isolated from the Eucalyptus tree was Armillaria luteobubalina (5.00%) from the stem part. The other fungi isolated were Macrophamina phaseolina and A. niger.

Keywords: decline, frequency of mycoflora, A. nilotica and E. camaldulensis, Drechslera australiensis, Armillaria luteobubalina

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6142 Psychological Stress and Accelerated Aging in SCI Patients - A Longitudinal Pilot Feasibility Study

Authors: Simona Capossela, Ramona Schaniel, Singer Franziska, Aquino Fournier Catharine, Daniel Stekhoven, Jivko Stoyanov

Abstract:

A spinal cord injury (SCI) is a traumatic life event that often results in ageing associated health conditions such as muscle mass decline, adipose tissue increase, decline in immune function, frailty, systemic chronic inflammation, and psychological distress and depression. Psychological, oxidative, and metabolic stressors may facilitate accelerated ageing in the SCI population with reduced life expectancy. Research designs using biomarkers of aging and stress are needed to elucidate the role of psychological distress in accelerated aging. The aim of this project is a feasibility pilot study to observe changes in stress biomarkers and correlate them with aging markers in SCI patients during their first rehabilitation (longitudinal cohort study). Biological samples were collected in the SwiSCI (Swiss Spinal Cord Injury Cohort Study) Biobank in Nottwil at 4 weeks±12 days after the injury (T1) and at the end of the first rehabilitation (discharge, T4). The "distress thermometer" is used as a selfassessment tool for psychological distress. Stress biomarkers, as cortisol and protein carbonyl content (PCC), and markers of cellular aging, such as telomere lengths, will be measured. 2 Preliminary results showed that SCI patients (N= 129) are still generally distressed at end of rehabilitation, however we found a statistically significant (p< 0.001) median decrease in distress from 6 (T1) to 5 (T4) during the rehabilitation. In addition, an explorative transcriptomics will be conducted on N=50 SCI patients to compare groups of persons with SCI who have different trajectories of selfreported distress at the beginning and end of the first rehabilitation after the trauma. We identified 4 groups: very high chronic stress (stress thermometer values above 7 at T1 and T4; n=14); transient stress (high to low; n=14), low stress (values below 5 at T1 and T4; n=14), increasing stress (low to high; n=8). The study will attempt to identify and address issues that may occur in relation to the design and conceptualization of future study on stress and aging in the SCI population.

Keywords: stress, aging, spinal cord injury, biomarkers

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6141 Changing Trends of Population in Nashik District, Maharashtra, India

Authors: Pager Mansaram Pandit

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The present paper aims to changing trends of population in Nashik district. The spatial variation of changing trends of population from 1901 to 2011. Nasik, lying between 19° 33’ and 20° 53’ north latitude and 73° 16’ and 75° 16’, with an area of 15530 Sq. K.M.North South length is 120 km. East West length is 200 km. Nashik has a population of 6,109,052 of which 3,164,261 are males and 2,944,791 and females. Average literacy rate of Nashik district in 2011 was 82.91 compared to 80.96 in 2001. In 1901 the density was 52 and in 2011 the density was 393 per sq. km. The progressive growth rate from 1901 to 2012 was 11.25 to 642.22 percent, respectively. The population trend is calculated with the help of time series. In 1901 population was 45.44% more and less in 1941 i.e. -13.86. From 1921 to 1981 the population was below the population trend but after 1991 population it gradually increased. The average rainfall it receives is 1034 mm. In the present times, because of advances in good climate, industrialization, development of road, University level educational facilities, religious importance, cargo services, good quality of grapes, pomegranates and onions, more and more people are being attracted towards Nashik districts. Another cause for the increase in the population is the main attraction of Ramkund, Muktidham Temple, Kalaram Temple, Coin Museum, and Trimbakeshwar.

Keywords: density, growth, population, population trend

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6140 Cognitive Decline in People Living with HIV in India and Correlation with Neurometabolites Using 3T Magnetic Resonance Spectroscopy (MRS): A Cross-Sectional Study

Authors: Kartik Gupta, Virendra Kumar, Sanjeev Sinha, N. Jagannathan

Abstract:

Introduction: A significant number of patients having human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) infection show a neurocognitive decline (NCD) ranging from minor cognitive impairment to severe dementia. The possible causes of NCD in HIV-infected patients include brain injury by HIV before cART, neurotoxic viral proteins and metabolic abnormalities. In the present study, we compared the level of NCD in asymptomatic HIV-infected patients with changes in brain metabolites measured by using magnetic resonance spectroscopy (MRS). Methods: 43 HIV-positive patients (30 males and 13 females) coming to ART center of the hospital and HIV-seronegative healthy subjects were recruited for the study. All the participants completed MRI and MRS examination, detailed clinical assessments and a battery of neuropsychological tests. All the MR investigations were carried out at 3.0T MRI scanner (Ingenia/Achieva, Philips, Netherlands). MRI examination protocol included the acquisition of T2-weighted imaging in axial, coronal and sagittal planes, T1-weighted, FLAIR, and DWI images in the axial plane. Patients who showed any apparent lesion on MRI were excluded from the study. T2-weighted images in three orthogonal planes were used to localize the voxel in left frontal lobe white matter (FWM) and left basal ganglia (BG) for single voxel MRS. Single voxel MRS spectra were acquired with a point resolved spectroscopy (PRESS) localization pulse sequence at an echo time (TE) of 35 ms and a repetition time (TR) of 2000 ms with 64 or 128 scans. Automated preprocessing and determination of absolute concentrations of metabolites were estimated using LCModel by water scaling method and the Cramer-Rao lower bounds for all metabolites analyzed in the study were below 15\%. Levels of total N-acetyl aspartate (tNAA), total choline (tCho), glutamate + glutamine (Glx), total creatine (tCr), were measured. Cognition was tested using a battery of tests validated for Indian population. The cognitive domains tested were the memory, attention-information processing, abstraction-executive, simple and complex perceptual motor skills. Z-scores normalized according to age, sex and education standard were used to calculate dysfunction in these individual domains. The NCD was defined as dysfunction with Z-score ≤ 2 in at least two domains. One-way ANOVA was used to compare the difference in brain metabolites between the patients and healthy subjects. Results: NCD was found in 23 (53%) patients. There was no significant difference in age, CD4 count and viral load between the two groups. Maximum impairment was found in the domains of memory and simple motor skills i.e., 19/43 (44%). The prevalence of deficit in attention-information processing, complex perceptual motor skills and abstraction-executive function was 37%, 35%, 33% respectively. Subjects with NCD had a higher level of Glutamate in the Frontal region (8.03 ± 2.30 v/s. 10.26 ± 5.24, p-value 0.001). Conclusion: Among newly diagnosed, ART-naïve retroviral disease patients from India, cognitive decline was found in 53\% patients using tests validated for this population. Those with neurocognitive decline had a significantly higher level of Glutamate in the left frontal region. There was no significant difference in age, CD4 count and viral load at initiation of ART between the two groups.

Keywords: HIV, neurocognitive decline, neurometabolites, magnetic resonance spectroscopy

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