Search results for: real estate price

Authors: Doseong Eom, Jeongmin Kim, Kwang Ryel Ryu

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Large exhibition halls require a lot of energy to maintain comfortable atmosphere for the visitors viewing inside. One way of reducing the energy cost is to have thermal energy storage systems installed so that the thermal energy can be stored in the middle of night when the energy price is low and then used later when the price is high. To minimize the overall energy cost, however, we should be able to decide how much energy to save during which time period exactly. If we can foresee future energy load and the corresponding cost, we will be able to make such decisions reasonably. In this paper, we use machine learning technique to obtain models for predicting weather conditions and the number of visitors on hourly basis for the next day. Based on the energy load thus predicted, we build a cost-optimal daily operation plan for the thermal energy storage systems and cooling and heating facilities through simulation-based optimization.

Keywords: building energy management, machine learning, operation planning, simulation-based optimization

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Authors: Olusegun F. Adebowale

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Research has confirmed that the emergence of information technology is significantly reflected in the field of psychology and its related disciplines due to its widespread use at reasonable price and its user-friendliness. It is consequently affecting ordinary life in many areas like shopping, advertising, corresponding and educating. Specifically the innovations of computer technology led to several new forms of communication, all with implications and applicability for counselling and psychotherapy practices. This is premise on which online counselling is based. Most institutions of higher learning in Nigeria have established their presence on the Internet and have deployed a variety of applications through ICT. Some are currently attempting to include counselling services in such applications with the belief that many counselling needs of students are likely to be met. This study therefore explored different challenges and preferences students present in online counselling interaction in a given Nigerian university with the view to guide new universities that may want to invest into these areas as to necessary preparations and referral requirements. The study is a mixed method research incorporating qualitative and quantitative methodologies to sample the preferences and concerns students express in online interaction. The sample comprised all the 876 students who visited the university online counselling platform either voluntarily, by invitation or by referral. The instrument for data collection was the online counselling platform of the university 'OAU Online counsellors'. The period of data collection spanned between January 2011 and October 2012. Data were analysed quantitatively (using percentages and Mann-Whitney U test) and qualitatively (using Interpretative Phenomenological Analysis (IPA)). The results showed that the students seem to prefer real-time chatting as their online medium of communicating with the online counsellor. The majority of students resorted to e-mail when their effort to use real-time chatting were becoming thwarted. Also, students preferred to enter into online counselling relationships voluntarily to other modes of entry. The results further showed that the prevalent counselling needs presented by students during online counselling sessions were mainly in the areas of social interaction and academic/educational concerns. Academic concerns were found to be prevalent, in form of course offerings, studentship matters and academic finance matters. The personal/social concerns were in form of students’ welfare, career related concerns and relationship matters. The study concludes students’ preferences include voluntary entry into online counselling, communication by real-time chatting and a specific focus on their academic concerns. It also recommends that all efforts should be made to encourage students’ voluntary entry into online counselling through reliable and stable internet infrastructure that will be able to support real-time chatting.

Keywords: online, counselling, needs, preferences

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Authors: Zichun Guo

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Guangzhou's housing prices have declined for a long time compared with the other three major cities. As Guangzhou's housing price ladder increases, the influencing factors of housing prices have gradually attracted attention. This article attempts to use housing price data and POI data and uses the Kriging spatial interpolation method and the geographically weighted regression model to explore the distribution of housing prices and the impact of factors. Caused, especially located in Huadu District and the city center. The response is mainly obvious in surrounding areas, which may be related to housing positioning. Economic POIs close to the city center have stronger responses. The factors affecting housing prices provide this method, which is conducive to the management and macro-control of relevant departments, better meets the demand for home purchases, and realizes financing-side reforms.

Keywords: housing prices, spatial heterogeneity, Guangzhou, POI

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Authors: Isah Wada

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The current research investigates the role of financial development in an environmental sustainability-energy consumption nexus for OPEC-1 member countries. The empirical findings suggest that financial development increases environmental sustainability but energy consumption and real output expansion diminishes environmental sustainability, generally. Thus, whilst real output and financial development accelerates energy consumption, environmental sustainability quality diminishes clean energy initiatives. Even more so, energy consumption and financial development stimulates real output growth. The result empirically demonstrates that policy advocates must address broader issues relating to financial development whilst seeking to achieve environmental sustainability due largely to energy consumption.

Keywords: energy consumption, environmental sustainability, financial development, OPEC, real output

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Authors: Setya Winarno

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Due to abundant Merapi volcanic sand in Yogyakarta City, many local people have utilized it for mass production of concrete blocks through mini plants although their products are low in quality. This paper presents a practice model for quality improvement in this situation in order to supply the current customer interest in good quality of construction material. The method of this research was to investigate a techno economic evaluation through laboratory test and interview. Samples of twenty existing concrete blocks made by local people had only 19.4 kg/cm2 in average compression strength which was lower than the minimum Indonesian standard of 25 kg/cm2. Through repeat testing in laboratory for fulfilling the standard, the concrete mix design of water cement ratio should not be more than 0.64 by weight basis. The proportion of sand as aggregate content should not be more than 9 parts to 1 part by volume of Portland cement. Considering the production cost, the basic price was Rp 1,820 for each concrete block, comparing to Rp 2,000 as a normal competitive market price. At last, the model describes (a) maximum water cement ratio is 0.64, (b) maximum proportion of sand and cement is 1:9, (c) the basic price is about Rp. 1,820.00 and (d) strategies to win the competitive market on mass production of concrete blocks are focus in quality, building relationships with consumer, rapid respond to customer need, continuous innovation by product diversification, promotion in social media, and strict financial management.

Keywords: concrete block, good quality, improvement model, diversification

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Authors: Daniel Mokatsanyane, Johnny Jansen Van Rensburg

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This paper is a concise introduction of the risk management on the water derivatives market. Water, a new commodity in the market, is one of the most important commodity on earth. As important to life and planet as crops, metals, and energy, none of them matters without water. This paper presents a brief overview of water as a tradable commodity via a new first of its kind futures contract on the Nasdaq Veles California Water Index (NQH2O) derivative instrument, TheGeneralised Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity (GARCH) statistical model will be the used to measure the water price volatility of the instrument and its performance since it’s been traded. describe the main products and illustrate their usage in risk management and also discuss key challenges with modeling and valuation of water as a traded commodity and finally discuss how water derivatives may be taken as an alternative asset investment class.

Keywords: water derivatives, commodity market, nasdaq veles california water Index (NQH2O, water price, risk management

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Authors: Q. Toufeeq, R. Kauser, U. R. Jamil, N. Sohaib

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Foundation design of a structure needs soil investigation to avoid failures due to settlements. This soil investigation is expensive and time-consuming. Developments of new residential societies involve huge leveling of large sites that is accompanied by heavy land filling. Poor practices of land fill for deep depths cause differential settlements and consolidations of underneath soil that sometimes result in the collapse of structures. The extent of filling remains unknown to the individual developer unless soil investigation is carried out. Soil investigation cannot be performed on each available site due to involved costs. However, fair estimate of bearing capacity can be made if such tests are already done in the surrounding areas. The geotechnical guidance maps can provide a fair assessment of soil properties. Previously, GIS-based approaches have been used to develop maps using extrapolation and interpolations techniques for bearing capacities, underground recharge, soil classification, geological hazards, landslide hazards, socio-economic, and soil liquefaction mapping. Standard penetration test (SPT) data of surrounding sites were already available. Google Earth is used for digitization of collected data. Few points were considered for data calibration and validation. Resultant Geographic information system (GIS)-based guidance maps are helpful to anticipate the bearing capacity in the real estate industry.

Keywords: bearing capacity, soil classification, geographical information system, inverse distance weighted, radial basis function

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Authors: Tom D. Gedeon, Ujala Rampaul

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The evaluation of electronic consumer goods are most often done from the perspective of analysing the latest models, comparing their advantages and disadvantages with respect to price. This style of evaluation is often performed by one or a few product experts on a wide range of features that may not be applicable to each user. We instead used a scenario-based approach to evaluate a number of e-readers. The setting is similar to a user who is interested in a new product or technology and has allocated a limited budget. We evaluate the quality and usability of e-readers available within that budget range. This is based on the assumption of a rational market which prices older second hand devices the same as functionally equivalent new devices. We describe our evaluation and comparison of four branded eReaders, as the initial stage of a larger project. The scenario has a range of tasks approximating a busy person who does not bother to read the manual. We found that navigation within books to be the most significant differentiator between the eReaders in our scenario based evaluation process.

Keywords: eReader, scenario based, price comparison, Kindle, Kobo, Nook, Sony, technology adoption

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Authors: Fatima Achouri, Zakaria Smahi

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Bir El Djir is an important coastal township in Oran department, located at 450 Km far away from Algiers on northwest of Algeria. In this coastal area, the urban sprawl is one of the main problems that reduce the limited highly fertile land. So, using the remote sensing and GIS technologies have shown their great capabilities to solve many earth resources issues. The aim of this study is to produce land use and cover map for the studied area at varied periods to monitor possible changes that may occurred, particularly in the urban areas and subsequently predict likely changes. For this, two spatial images SPOT and Landsat satellites from 1987 and 2014 respectively were used to assess the changes of urban expansion and encroachment during this period with photo-interpretation and GIS approach. The results revealed that the town of Bir El Djir has shown a highest growth rate in the period 1987-2014 which is 521.1 hectares in terms of area. These expansions largely concern the new real estate constructions falling within the social and promotional housing programs launched by the government. Indeed, during the last census period (1998 -2008), the population of this town has almost doubled from 73 029 to 152 151 inhabitants with an average annual growth of 5.2%. This also significant population growth is causing an accelerated urban expansion of the periphery which causing its conurbation with the towns of Oran in the West side. The most urban expansion is characterized by the new construction in the form of spontaneous or peripheral precarious habitat, but also unstructured slums settled especially in the southeastern part of town.

Keywords: urban expansion, remote sensing, photo-interpretation, spatial dynamics

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Authors: B. Makhlouf, O. Bouchhida, M. Nibouche, K. Laidi

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A variety of methods for selective harmonics elimination pulse width modulation have been developed, the most frequently used for real-time implementation based on look-up tables method. To address real-time requirements based in modified carrier signal is proposed in the presented work, with a general formulation to real-time harmonics control/elimination in switched inverters. Firstly, the proposed method has been demonstrated for a single value of the modulation index. However, in reality, this parameter is variable as a consequence of the voltage (amplitude) variability. In this context, a simple interpolation method for calculating the modified sine carrier signal is proposed. The method allows a continuous adjustment in both amplitude and frequency of the fundamental. To assess the performance of the proposed method, software simulations and hardware experiments have been carried out in the case of a single-phase inverter. Obtained results are very satisfactory.

Keywords: harmonic elimination, Particle Swarm Optimisation (PSO), polynomial interpolation, pulse width modulation, real-time harmonics control, voltage inverter

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Authors: Raj Kumari Bahl, Sotirios Sabanis

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In this paper, we are concerned with the valuation of the first Catastrophic Mortality Bond that was launched in the market namely the Swiss Re Mortality Bond 2003. This bond encapsulates the behavior of a well-defined mortality index to generate payoffs for the bondholders. Pricing this bond is a challenging task. We adapt the payoff of the terminal principal of the bond in terms of the payoff of an Asian put option and present an approach to derive model-independent bounds exploiting comonotonic theory. We invoke Jensen’s inequality for the computation of lower bounds and employ Lagrange optimization technique to achieve the upper bound. The success of these bounds is based on the availability of compatible European mortality options in the market. We carry out Monte Carlo simulations to estimate the bond price and illustrate the strength of these bounds across a variety of models. The fact that our bounds are model-independent is a crucial breakthrough in the pricing of catastrophic mortality bonds.

Keywords: mortality bond, Swiss Re Bond, mortality index, comonotonicity

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Authors: Algia Hammami, Abdelfatteh Bouri

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In this work, our objective is to study the transmission of volatility between oil and stock markets in developed (USA, Germany, Italy, France and Japan) and emerging countries (Tunisia, Thailand, Brazil, Argentina, and Jordan) for the period 1998-2015. Our methodology consists of analyzing the monthly data by the GARCH-BEKK model to capture the effect in terms of volatility in the variation of the oil price on the different stock market. The empirical results in the emerging countries indicate that the relationships are unidirectional from the stock market to the oil market. For the developed countries, we find that the transmission of volatility is unidirectional from the oil market to stock market. For the USA and Italy, we find no transmission between the two markets. The transmission is bi-directional only in Thailand. Following our estimates, we also noticed that the emerging countries influence almost the same extent as the developed countries, while at the transmission of volatility there a bid difference. The GARCH-BEKK model is more effective than the others versions to minimize the risk of an oil-stock portfolio.

Keywords: GARCH, oil prices, stock market, volatility transmission

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Authors: Haidy S. Ghali, Engy Serag, A. Samer Ezeldin

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Copper is an essential raw material used in the construction industry. During the year 2021 and the first half of 2022, the global market suffered from a significant fluctuation in copper raw material prices due to the aftermath of both the COVID-19 pandemic and the Russia-Ukraine war, which exposed its consumers to an unexpected financial risk. Thereto, this paper aims to develop two ANN-LSTM price prediction models, using Python, that can forecast the average monthly copper prices traded in the London Metal Exchange; the first model is a multivariate model that forecasts the copper price of the next 1-month and the second is a univariate model that predicts the copper prices of the upcoming three months. Historical data of average monthly London Metal Exchange copper prices are collected from January 2009 till July 2022, and potential external factors are identified and employed in the multivariate model. These factors lie under three main categories: energy prices and economic indicators of the three major exporting countries of copper, depending on the data availability. Before developing the LSTM models, the collected external parameters are analyzed with respect to the copper prices using correlation and multicollinearity tests in R software; then, the parameters are further screened to select the parameters that influence the copper prices. Then, the two LSTM models are developed, and the dataset is divided into training, validation, and testing sets. The results show that the performance of the 3-Month prediction model is better than the 1-Month prediction model, but still, both models can act as predicting tools for diverse economic situations.

Keywords: copper prices, prediction model, neural network, time series forecasting

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Authors: Golamhassan Ghahramani Aghdam, Pedram Bavili Tabrizi

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The aim of this research is to investigate the relationship between accounting information and the value of the companies accepted in Tehran Exchange Market. The dependent variable in this research is the value of a company that is measured by price coefficients, and the independent variables are balance sheet information, profit and loss information, cash flow state information, and profit quality characteristics. The profit quality characteristic index is to be related and to be on-time. This research is an application research, and the research population includes all companies that are active in Tehran exchange market. The number of 194 companies was selected by the systematic method as the statistics sample in the period of 2018-2019. The multi-variable linear regression model was used for the hypotheses test. The results show that there is no relationship between accounting information and companies’ value (stock value) that can be due to the lack of efficiency of the investment market and the inability to use the accounting information by investment market activists.

Keywords: accounting information, company value, profit quality characteristics, price coefficient

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Authors: Marlies Achenbach

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System competencies play a key role to ensure an effective and efficient improvement of production systems. Thus, there can be observed an increasing demand for developing system competencies in industry as well as in engineering education. System competencies consist of the following two main abilities: Evaluating the current state of a production system and developing a target state. The innovative course ‘multi-perspective learning in a real production plant (multi real)’ is developed to create a learning setting that supports the development of these system competencies. Therefore, the setting combines two innovative aspects: First, the Learning takes place in heterogeneous groups formed by students as well as professionals and managers from industry. Second, the learning takes place in a real production plant. This paper presents the innovative didactic concept of ‘multi real’ in detail, which will initially be implemented in October/November 2016 in the industrial engineering, logistics and mechanical master’s program at TU Dortmund University.

Keywords: experiential learning, heterogeneous groups, improving production systems, system competencies

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Authors: Baoubadi Atozou, Koffi Akakpo

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Since the decade 2000, the use of foodstuffs such as corn, wheat, and soybeans in biofuel production has been growing sharply in the United States, Canada, and Europe. Thus, prices for these agricultural products are rising in the world market. These cereals are the most important source of calorific energy for West African Economic and Monetary Union (WAEMU) countries members’ population. These countries are highly dependent on imports of most of these products. Thereby, rising prices can have an important impact on import levels and consequently on food security in these countries. This study aims to analyze the interrelationship between the prices of these commodities and their volatilities, and their effects on imports of these agricultural products by each WAEMU ’country member. The Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) model, the GARCH Multivariate model, and the Granger Causality Test are used in this investigation. The results show that import levels are highly and significantly sensitive to price changes as well as their volatility. In the short term as well as in the long term, there is a significant relationship between the prices of these products. There is a positive relationship in general between price volatility. And these volatilities have negative effects on the level of imports. The market characteristics affect food security in these countries, especially access to food for vulnerable and low-income populations. The policies makers must adopt viable strategies to increase agricultural production and limit their dependence on imports.

Keywords: price volatility, import of agricultural products, food safety, WAEMU

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Authors: E. A. Ojoko, G. B. Umbugadu

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This study aims at describing the expenditure pattern of households on millet, maize and sorghum across income groups in Nasarawa State. A multi-stage sampling technique was used to select a sample size of 316 respondents for the study. The Almost Ideal Demand System (AIDS) model was adopted in this study. Results from the study shows that the average household size was five persons with dependency ratio of 52 %, which plays an important role on the household’s expenditure pattern by increasing the household budget share. On the average 82 % were male headed households with an average age of 49 years and 13 years of formal education. Results on expenditure share show that maize has the highest expenditure share of 38 % across the three income groups and that most of the price effects are significantly different from zero at 5 % significant level. This shows that the low price of maize increased its demand as compared to other cereals. Household size and age of household members are major factors affecting the demand for cereals in the study. This agrees with the fact that increased household population (size) will bring about increase consumption. The results on factors influencing preferences for cereal grains reveals that cooking quality and appearance (65.7 %) were the most important factors affecting the demand for maize in the study area. This study recommends that cereal crop production should be prioritized in government policies and farming activities that help to boost food security and alleviate poverty should be subsidized.

Keywords: expenditure pattern, AIDS model, budget share, price cereal grains and consumption

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Authors: Kara Gianina D. Rosas, Jade Emily L. Tong

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This study assesses the vulnerability of households to food price shocks. Using the Philippines as a case study, the researchers aim to understand how such shocks can cause food insecurity in different types of households. This paper measures the impact of actual food price changes during the food crisis of 2006-2009 on poverty in relation to their spatial location. Households are classified as rural or urban and agricultural or non-agricultural. By treating food prices and consumption patterns as heterogeneous, this study differs from conventional poverty analysis as actual prices are used. Merging the Family, Income and Expenditure Survey (FIES) with the Consumer Price Index dataset (CPI), the researchers were able to determine the effects on poverty measures, specifically, headcount index, poverty gap, and poverty severity. The study finds that, without other interventions, food inflation would lead to a significant increase in the number of households that fall below the poverty threshold, except for households whose income is derived from agricultural activities. It also finds that much of the inflation during these years was fueled by the rise in staple food prices. Essentially, this paper aims to broaden the economic perspective of policymakers with regard to the heterogeneity of impacts of inflation through analyzing the deeper microeconomic levels of different subgroups. In hopes of finding a solution to lessen the inequality gap of poverty between the rural and urban poor, this paper aims to aid policymakers in creating projects targeted towards food insecurity.

Keywords: poverty, food inflation, agricultural households, non-agricultural households, net consumption ratio, urban poor, rural poor, head count index, poverty gap, poverty severity

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Authors: Mohamad H. Atyeh, Ahmad Khaldi

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The main objective of this research is to measure the relationship between the Kuwait stock Exchange (KSE) index and its two marketing sectors after the new market classification. The findings of this research are important for Public economic policy makers as they need to know if the new system (new classification) is efficient and to what level, to monitor the markets and intervene with appropriate measures. The data used are the daily index of the whole Kuwaiti market and the daily closing price, number of deals and volume of shares traded of two marketing sectors (consumer goods and consumer services) for the period from the 13th of May 2012 till the 12th of December 2016. The results indicate a positive direct impact of the closing price, volume and deals indexes of the consumer goods and the consumer services companies on the overall KSE index, volume and deals of the Kuwaiti stock market (KSE).

Keywords: correlation, market capitalization, Kuwait Stock Exchange (KSE), marketing sectors, stock performance

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Authors: Y. Bhatt, N. Ghosh, N. Tiwari

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Acreage response function are modeled taking account of expected harvest prices, weather related variables and other non-price variables allowing for partial adjustment possibility. At the outset, based on the literature on price expectation formation, we explored suitable formulations for estimating the farmer’s expected prices. Assuming that farmers form expectations rationally, the prices of food and biofuel crops are modeled using time-series methods for possible ARCH/GARCH effects to account for volatility. The prices projected on the basis of the models are then inserted to proxy for the expected prices in the acreage response functions. Food crop acreages in different growing states are found sensitive to their prices relative to those of one or more of the biofuel crops considered. The required percentage improvement in food crop yields is worked to offset the acreage loss.

Keywords: acreage response function, biofuel, food security, sustainable development

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Authors: Zo Hasina Rabemananjara

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The North-East of Madagascar is the pillar of Madagascar's foreign trade, providing 41% and 80% of world exports of cloves and vanilla, respectively, in 2016. For Madagascar, the north-eastern escarpment is home to the last massifs of humid forest in large scale of the island, surrounded by a small scale agricultural mosaic. In the sites where this study is taking place, located in the peripheral zones of protected areas, the production of rent aims to supply international markets. In fact, importers of the cash crops produced in these areas are located mainly in India, Singapore, France, Germany and the United States. Recently, the price of these products has increased significantly, especially from the year 2015. For vanilla, the price has skyrocketed, from an approximate price of 73 USD per kilo in 2015 to more than 250 USD per kilo in 2016. The value of clove exports increased sharply by 49.4% in 2017, largely to Singapore and India due to the sharp increase in exported volume (+47, 6%) in 2017. If the relationship between the rise in prices of rented products and the change in physical environments is known, the evolution of the behavior of land users linked to this aspect was not yet addressed by research. In fact, the consequence of this price increase in the organization of the use of space at the local level still raises questions. Hence, the research question is: to what extent does this improvement in the price of imported products affect user behavior linked to the local organization of access to the factor of soil production? To fully appreciate this change in behavior, surveys of 144 land user households were carried out, and group interviews were also carried out. The results of this research showed that the rise in the prices of annuity products from the year 2015 caused significant changes in the behavior of land users in the study sites. Young people, who have not been attracted to farming for a long time, have started to show interest in it since the period of rising vanilla and clove prices. They have set up their own fields of vanilla and clove cultivation. This revival of interest conferred an important value on the land and caused conflicts especially between family members because the acquisition of the cultivated land was done by inheritance or donation. This change in user behavior has also affected the farmers' life strategy since the latter have decided to abandon rain-fed rice farming, which has long been considered a guaranteed subsistence activity for cash crops. This research will contribute to nourishing scientific reflection on the management of land use and also to support political decision-makers in decision-making on spatial planning.

Keywords: behavior of land users, North-eastern Madagascar, price of export products, spatial planning

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Authors: Hector Carcel Luis Alberiko Gil-Alana

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This paper examines the time series behavior of three variables (GDP, Price level of Consumption and Population) in the eight countries that belong to the West African Economic and Monetary Union (WAEMU), which are Benin, Burkina Faso, Côte d’Ivoire, Guinea-Bissau, Mali, Niger, Senegal and Togo. The reason for carrying out this study lies in the considerable heterogeneity that can be perceived in the data from these countries. We conduct a long memory and fractional integration modeling framework and we also identify potential breaks in the data. The aim of the study is to perceive up to which degree the eight West African countries that belong to the same monetary union follow the same economic patterns of stability. Testing for mean reversion, we only found strong evidence of it in the case of Senegal for the Price level of Consumption, and in the cases of Benin, Burkina Faso and Senegal for GDP.

Keywords: West Africa, Monetary Union, fractional integration, economic patterns

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Authors: Mingming Leng

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Wal-Mart has allocated considerable human resources for its quality assurance program, in which the largest retailer serves its supply chains as a quality gatekeeper. Asda Stores Ltd., the second largest supermarket chain in Britain, is now investing £27m in significantly increasing the frequency of quality control checks in its supply chains and thus enhancing quality across its fresh food business. Moreover, Tesco, the largest British supermarket chain, already constructed a quality assessment center to carry out its gatekeeping responsibility. Motivated by the above practices, we consider a supply chain in which a retailer plays the gatekeeping role in quality assurance by identifying defects among a manufacturer's products prior to selling them to consumers. The impact of a retailer's gatekeeping activity on pricing and quality assurance in a supply chain has not been investigated in the operations management area. We draw a number of managerial insights that are expected to help practitioners judiciously consider the quality gatekeeping effort at the retail level. As in practice, when the retailer identifies a defective product, she immediately returns it to the manufacturer, who then replaces the defect with a good quality product and pays a penalty to the retailer. If the retailer does not recognize a defect but sells it to a consumer, then the consumer will identify the defect and return it to the retailer, who then passes the returned 'unidentified' defect to the manufacturer. The manufacturer also incurs a penalty cost. Accordingly, we analyze a two-stage pricing and quality decision problem, in which the manufacturer and the retailer bargain over the manufacturer's average defective rate and wholesale price at the first stage, and the retailer decides on her optimal retail price and gatekeeping intensity at the second stage. We also compare the results when the retailer performs quality gatekeeping with those when the retailer does not. Our supply chain analysis exposes some important managerial insights. For example, the retailer's quality gatekeeping can effectively reduce the channel-wide defective rate, if her penalty charge for each identified de-fect is larger than or equal to the market penalty for each unidentified defect. When the retailer imple-ments quality gatekeeping, the change in the negotiated wholesale price only depends on the manufac-turer's 'individual' benefit, and the change in the retailer's optimal retail price is only related to the channel-wide benefit. The retailer is willing to take on the quality gatekeeping responsibility, when the impact of quality relative to retail price on demand is high and/or the retailer has a strong bargaining power. We conclude that the retailer's quality gatekeeping can help reduce the defective rate for consumers, which becomes more significant when the retailer's bargaining position in her supply chain is stronger. Retailers with stronger bargaining powers can benefit more from their quality gatekeeping in supply chains.

Keywords: bargaining, game theory, pricing, quality, supply chain

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Authors: Kahina Amal Djiar, Mouna Gharbi, Maha Messaoudene, Oumelkheir Chareb

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Over the last decade, Algerian authorities have implemented an ambitious program of urban renewal, which includes important relocation operations. The objectives behind such strategic interventions are on the one hand, to carry out an incremental approach aiming at eradicating precarious housing and on the other hand, to diversify alternative housing options for families requiring better living spaces. It is precisely for these same purposes that the Djenan el-Hassan and Carrières Jaubert estates, which are both located in Algiers, have undergone major urban transformations. These dwelling sites were built as part of the famous "Battle of Housing", which was launched by French colonial administration in the 1950s just before the independence of Algeria in 1962. Today, the Djenan el-Hassan estate is almost entirely demolished following the relocation of 171 families. The Carrières Jaubert estate, for its part, has seen two kinds of operations. The first has been shaped by a process of urban requalification and redevelopment, which allowed some of the residents to stay on site after the transformation of most housing cells into larger apartments. The second operation has required the relocation of over 300 families to entirely newly built dwellings. Such projects of urban renewal are supposed to create new opportunities, not only in terms of local urban development, but also in terms of social perspectives for those families who are involved, either directly or indirectly, in the process of relocation. In fact, the percentage of urban violence in Algiers has increased instead. Recent events in the newly built estates show that residents are repeatedly experiencing and even instigating episodes of brutality, hostility and aggression. The objective of this paper is to examine the causes that have engendered such rise in urban violence in newly built housing estates in Algiers. This paper aims to present the findings of a recent qualitative research and highlight the way that poorly designed neighbourhood, combined with a relocation process that leaves little room for community participation, create inevitably severe social tensions.

Keywords: relocation, social housing, violence, Algiers

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Authors: Andrey V. Timofeev

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An adaptive nonparametric method is proposed for stable real-time detection of seismoacoustic sources in multichannel C-OTDR systems with a significant number of channels. This method guarantees given upper boundaries for probabilities of Type I and Type II errors. Properties of the proposed method are rigorously proved. The results of practical applications of the proposed method in a real C-OTDR-system are presented in this report.

Keywords: guaranteed detection, multichannel monitoring systems, change point, interval estimation, adaptive detection

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Authors: Ichiro Takahashi

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One conundrum that macroeconomic theory faces is to explain how an economy can revive from depression, in which the aggregate demand has fallen substantially below its productive capacity. This paper examines an autonomous stabilizing mechanism using an agent-based Wicksell-Keynes macroeconomic model. This paper focuses on the effects of the number of firms and the length of the gestation period for investment that are often assumed to be one in a mainstream macroeconomic model. The simulations found the virtual economy was highly unstable, or more precisely, collapsing when these parameters are fixed at one. This finding may even suggest us to question the legitimacy of these common assumptions. A perpetual decline in capital stock will eventually encourage investment if the capital stock is short-lived because an inactive investment will result in insufficient productive capacity. However, for an economy characterized by a roundabout production method, a gradual decline in productive capacity may not be able to fall below the aggregate demand that is also shrinking. Naturally, one would then ask if our economy cannot rely on an external stimulus such as population growth and technological progress to revive investment, what factors would provide such a buoyancy for stimulating investments? The current paper attempts to answer this question by employing the artificial macroeconomic model mentioned above. The baseline model has the following three features: (1) the multi-period gestation for investment, (2) a large number of heterogeneous firms, (3) demand-constrained firms. The instability is a consequence of the following dynamic interactions. (a) A multiple-period gestation period means that once a firm starts a new investment, it continues to invest over some subsequent periods. During these gestation periods, the excess demand created by the investing firm will spill over to ignite new investment of other firms that are supplying investment goods: the presence of multi-period gestation for investment provides a field for investment interactions. Conversely, the excess demand for investment goods tends to fade away before it develops into a full-fledged boom if the gestation period of investment is short. (b) A strong demand in the goods market tends to raise the price level, thereby lowering real wages. This reduction of real wages creates two opposing effects on the aggregate demand through the following two channels: (1) a reduction in the real labor income, and (2) an increase in the labor demand due to the principle of equality between the marginal labor productivity and real wage (referred as the Walrasian labor demand). If there is only a single firm, a lower real wage will increase its Walrasian labor demand, thereby an actual labor demand tends to be determined by the derived labor demand. Thus, the second positive effect would not work effectively. In contrast, for an economy with a large number of firms, Walrasian firms will increase employment. This interaction among heterogeneous firms is a key for stability. A single firm cannot expect the benefit of such an increased aggregate demand from other firms.

Keywords: agent-based macroeconomic model, business cycle, demand constraint, gestation period, representative agent model, stability

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Authors: Aneta Oblouková, Eva Vítková

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The article deals with the issue of water and sewerage charge rate prices in the Czech Republic. The research is specifically focused on the analysis of the development of the average prices of water and sewerage charge rate in the Czech Republic in the years 1994-2021 and on the validation of the chosen methodology relevant for the prediction of the development of the average prices of water and sewerage charge rate in the Czech Republic. The research is based on data collection. The data for this research was obtained from the Czech Statistical Office. The aim of the paper is to validate the relevance of the mathematical linear trend estimate technique for the calculation of the predicted average prices of water and sewerage charge rates. The real values of the average prices of water and sewerage charge rates in the Czech Republic in the years 1994-2018 were obtained from the Czech Statistical Office and were converted into a mathematical equation. The same type of real data was obtained from the Czech Statistical Office for the years 2019-2021. Prediction of the average prices of water and sewerage charge rates in the Czech Republic in the years 2019-2021 were also calculated using a chosen method -a linear trend estimation technique. The values obtained from the Czech Statistical Office and the values calculated using the chosen methodology were subsequently compared. The research result is a validation of the chosen mathematical technique to be a suitable technique for this research.

Keywords: Czech Republic, linear trend estimation, price prediction, water and sewerage charge rate

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Authors: Fatihin Khoirul, Muhammad Muqorrobin Ist

Abstract:

Bojonegoro Regency is one of the districts that use the concept Agropolitan as the Territorial Development Policy. Three sub-district designated as Area Development District of Agropolitan are Kapas, Dander, and Kalitidu or commonly called KADEKA. Current policy has been shown results, but there was an inequality of results in some areas. One of them occurred in the Ngringinrejo village with the main commodities is Starfruit and Wedi village with the main commodities is Salak fruit. Therefore, a comparative study is used to search for causal factors of inequality result of the policy by using the 5 aspects compared, namely: (1) Management Development Agropolitan; (2) Physical Condition agropolitan Region; (3) Implementing Agency at the Village Level; (4) Village Government Support; and (5) Community support. Based on the discussion of qualitative analysis, it was found that five aspects have their respective roles in creating inequality of outcomes that occur in both villages. But beyond that, there are conditions where the two villages experienced the same condition that is when the initial implementation of the policy. The condition is referred to as 'the phenomenon of price trap.' The condition is caused by lower commodity prices, causing the village government's commitment in implementing policies too low, followed by public awareness in support of the policy is also low, so care for commodities is also low, and the quality is too low lead and eventually back causing low price. However, the difference is that the village Ngringinrejo able to get out of this condition with 'the new culture of administration' at the end of 2013. While the conditions in the village of Wedi compounded by not respected request assistance by the irrigation district.

Keywords: comparative policy analysis, qualitative comparative, inequallity, price trap, new culture of administration

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Authors: Mamoon M. Atout

Abstract:

The Middle East Gulf region has witnessed rapid growth and development in many areas over the last two decades. The development of the real-estate sector, construction industry and infrastructure projects are a major share of the development that has participated in the civilization of the countries of the Gulf. Construction industry projects were planned and managed by different types of experts, who came from all over the world having different types of experiences in construction management and industry. Some of these projects were completed on time, while many were not, due to many accumulating factors. Many accumulated factors are considered as the principle reason for the problem experienced at the project construction stage, which reflected negatively on the project success. Specific causes of delay have been identified by construction managers to avoid any unexpected delays through proper analysis and considerations to some implications such as risk assessment and analysis for many potential problems to ensure that projects will be delivered on time. Construction management implications were adopted and considered by project managers who have experience and knowledge in applying the techniques of the system of engineering construction management. The aim of this research is to determine the benefits of the implications of construction management by the construction team and level of considerations of the techniques and processes during the project development and construction phases to avoid any delay in the projects. It also aims to determine the factors that participate to project completion delays in case project managers are not well committed to their roles and responsibilities. The results of the analysis will determine the necessity of the applications required by the project team to avoid the causes of delays that help them deliver projects on time, e.g. verifying tender documents, quantities and preparing the construction method of the project.

Keywords: construction management, control process, cost control, planning and scheduling

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Authors: Trina Isabel D. Santiago, Juan Raphael M. Perez, Maria Angelica O. Soriano, Teresita B. Suing, Jumee F. Tayaban

Abstract:

To achieve universal healthcare for everyone, the World Health Organization has emphasized the importance of National Medicines Policies for increased accessibility and utilization of high-quality and affordable medications. In the Philippines, significant challenges have been identified surrounding the sustainability of essential medicines, resulting in limited access such as high cost and dominance and market dominance and monopoly of multinational companies (MNCs) in the Philippine pharmaceutical industry. These identified challenges have been addressed by several initiatives, such as the Philippine National Drug Policy and Generics Act of 1988 (Republic Act 6675), to attempt to reduce drug prices. Despite these efforts, the concerns with drug accessibility and affordability continue to persist; hence, Republic Act 9502 was enacted. This paper attempts to review RA 9502 in the pursuit of making medicines more affordable for Filipinos, analyze and critique the problems and challenges associated with the law, and provide recommendations to address identified problems and challenges. A literature search and review, as well as an analysis of the law, has been done to evaluate the policy. RA 9502 recognizes the importance of market competition in drug price reduction and quality medicine accessibility. Contentious issues prior to enactment of the law include 1) parallel importation, pointing out that the drug price will depend on the global market price, 2) contrasting approaches in the drafting of the law as the House version focused on medicine price control while the Senate version prioritized market competition, and 3) MNCs opposing the amendments with concerns on discrimination, constitutional violations, and noncompliance with international treaty obligations. There are also criticisms and challenges with the implementation of the law in terms of content or modeling, interpretation and implementation, and other external factors or hindrances. The law has been criticized for its narrow scope as it only covers specific essential medicines with no cooperation with the national health insurance program. Moreover, the law has sections taking advantage of the TRIPS flexibilities, which disallow smaller countries to reap the benefits of flexibilities. The sanctions and penalties have an insignificant role in implementation as they only ask for a small portion of the income of MNCs. Proposed recommendations for policy improvement include aligning existing legislation through strengthened price regulation and expanded law coverage, strengthening penalties to promote law adherence, and promoting research and development to encourage and support local initiatives. Through these comprehensive recommendations, the issues surrounding the policy can be addressed, and the goal of enhancing the affordability and accessibility of medicines in the country can be achieved.

Keywords: drug accessibility, drug affordability, price regulation, Republic Act 9502

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