Search results for: load and price uncertainties

Authors: Svetlana Pushkar

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Eco-indicator 99 (EI99) considers fundamental life cycle assessment (LCA) uncertainties via egalitarian/egalitarian (e/e), hierarchist/hierarchist (h/h), individualist/individualist (i/i), individualist/average (i/a), egalitarian/average (e/a), and hierarchist/average (h/a) methodological options. The objective of this study is to provide a reliable two-stage nested mixed balanced Analysis of Variance (ANOVA) test as a supplemental test to EI99 to address the problematic combination of similarly and not similarly produced materials usually found in building technologies. The robustness of the test was determined from both the “EI99 (all options)” stage (including e/e, i/i, h/h, e/a, i/a, and h/a - all methodological options) and the “EI99 (perspectives)” stage (including e/e, i/i, and h/h methodological options of EI99 - the methodological options with their particular weighting set or e/a, i/a, and h/a methodological options of EI99 - the methodological options with the average weighting set) of evaluating building technologies.

Keywords: building technologies, LCA uncertainty, Eco-indicator 99, two-stage nested mixed ANOVA test

Procedia PDF Downloads 309

Authors: M. Ali, K. Alam, E. Ohioma

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This paper presents a numerical investigation on the behavior of fiber reinforced polymer composite tubes (FRP) under thermomechanical coupled loading using finite element software ABAQUS and a special add-on subroutine, CZone. Three cases were explored; pure mechanical loading, pure thermal loading, and coupled thermomechanical loading. The failure index (Tsai-Wu) under all three loading cases was assessed for all plies in the tube walls. The simulation results under pure mechanical loading showed that composite tube failed at a tensile load of 3.1 kN. However, with the superposition of thermal load on mechanical load on the composite tube, the failure index of the previously failed plies in tube walls reduced significantly causing the tube to fail at 6 kN. This showed 93% improvement in the load carrying capacity of the composite tube in present study. The increase in load carrying capacity was attributed to the stress effects of the coefficients of thermal expansion (CTE) on the laminate as well as the inter-lamina stresses induced due to the composite stack layup.

Keywords: thermal, mechanical, composites, square tubes

Procedia PDF Downloads 386

Authors: Nur Ashida Salim, Muhammad Murtadha Othman, Ismail Musirin, Mohd Salleh Serwan

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Uncertainty of system operating conditions is one of the causative reasons which may render to the instability of a transmission system. This will encumber the performance of transmission system to efficiently transmit the electrical power between areas. For that reason, accurate assessment of Transmission Reliability Margin (TRM) is essential in order to ensure effective power transfer between areas during the occurrence of system uncertainties. The power transfer is also called as the Available Transfer Capability (ATC) in which it is the information required by the utilities and marketers to instigate selling and buying the electric energy. This paper proposes a computationally effective approach to estimate TRM and ATC by considering the uncertainties of system cascading collapse and transmission line outages which is identified as the main reasons in power system instability. In accordance to the results that have been obtained, the proposed method is essential for the transmission providers which could help the power marketers and planning sectors in the operation and reserving transmission services based on the ATC calculated.

Keywords: system cascading collapse, transmission line outages, transmission reliability margin, available transfer capability

Procedia PDF Downloads 426

Authors: Nakache Radouane, M. Boukelloul, M. Fredj

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Method room and pillar sizes are key factors for safe mining and their recovery in open-stop mining. This method is advantageous due to its simplicity and requirement of little information to be used. It is probably the most representative method among the total load approach methods although it also remains a safe design method. Using a finite element software (PLAXIS 3D), analyses were carried out with an elasto-plastic model and comparisons were made with methods based on the total load approach. The results were presented as the optimization for improving the ore recovery rate while maintaining a safe working environment.

Keywords: room and pillar, mining, total load approach, elasto-plastic

Procedia PDF Downloads 330

Authors: Samir K. Safi

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The purpose of this study was to compare the performance of two types of models, namely MIDAS and MIDAS-GARCH, in predicting the volatility of crude oil returns based on gold price returns and the COVID-19 pandemic. The study aimed to identify which model would provide more accurate short-term and long-term predictions and which model would perform better in handling the increased volatility caused by the pandemic. The findings of the study revealed that the MIDAS model performed better in predicting short-term and long-term volatility before the pandemic, while the MIDAS-GARCH model performed significantly better in handling the increased volatility caused by the pandemic. The study highlights the importance of selecting appropriate models to handle the complexities of real-world data and shows that the choice of model can significantly impact the accuracy of predictions. The practical implications of model selection and exploring potential methodological adjustments for future research will be highlighted and discussed.

Keywords: GARCH-MIDAS, MIDAS, crude oil, gold, COVID-19, volatility

Procedia PDF Downloads 65

Authors: Ashkan Shafee, Masoud Ghodrati, Ahmad Fahimifar

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Pervious concrete combines considerable permeability with adequate strength, which makes it very beneficial in pavement construction and also in ground improvement projects. In this paper, a single pervious concrete pile subjected to vertical and lateral loading is analysed using a verified three dimensional finite element code. A parametric study was carried out in order to investigate load bearing capacity of a single unreinforced pervious concrete pile in saturated soft soil and also gain insight into the failure mechanism of this rather new soil improvement technique. The results show that concrete damaged plasticity constitutive model can perfectly simulate the highly brittle nature of the pervious concrete material and considering the computed vertical and horizontal load bearing capacities, some suggestions have been made for ground improvement projects.

Keywords: concrete damaged plasticity, ground improvement, load-bearing capacity, pervious concrete pile

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Authors: H. Abaal, R. Skouri

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A power flow analysis is a steady-state study of power grid. The goal of power flow analysis is to determine the voltages, currents, and real and reactive power flows in a system under a given load conditions. In this paper, the load flow analysis program by Newton Raphson polar coordinates Method is developed. The effectiveness of the developed program is evaluated through a simple 5-IEEE test system bus by simulations using MATLAB.

Keywords: power flow analysis, Newton Raphson polar coordinates method

Procedia PDF Downloads 603

Authors: Mandeep Kaur, Fatehgarh Sahib

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The purpose of economic load dispatch is to allocate the required load demand between the available generation units such that the cost of operation is minimized. It is an optimization problem to find the most economical schedule of the generating units while satisfying load demand and operational constraints. The multiobjective optimization problem in which the engineer’s goal is to maximize or minimize not a single objective function but several objective functions simultaneously. The purpose of multiobjective problems in the mathematical programming framework is to optimize the different objective functions. Many approaches and methods have been proposed in recent years to solve multiobjective optimization problems. Weighting method has been applied to convert multiobjective optimization problems into scalar optimization. MATLAB 7.10 has been used to write the code for the complete algorithm with the help of genetic algorithm (GA). The validity of the proposed method has been demonstrated on a three-unit power system.

Keywords: economic load dispatch, genetic algorithm, generating units, multiobjective optimization, weighting method

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Authors: Ali Hamad, Ibrahim Al-Drous, Saleh Al-Jufout

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This paper presents a case study of using STATCOM to enhance the performance of Al-Qatraneh 33-kV transmission line. The location of the STATCOM was identified maintaining minimum voltage drops at the 110 load nodes. The transmission line and the 110 load nodes have been modeled by MATLAB/Simulink. The suggested STATCOM and its location will increase the transmission capability of this transmission line and overcome the overload expected in the year 2020. The annual percentage loading rise has been considered as 14%. A graphical representation of the line voltages and the voltage drops at different load nodes has been illustrated.

Keywords: FACTS, MATLAB, STATCOM, transmission line, voltage drop

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Authors: Kanhaiya Singh

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Indian corporate sector has been raising resources through various international financial instruments important among them are Global depository receipts (GDRs) and American Depository Receipts (ADRs). The purpose of raising resources through such instruments is multifold such as lower cost of capital, increased visibility of the company, liberal tax environment, increased trading liquidity etc. One of the significant reason is also the value addition of the company in terms of market capitalization. Obviously, the stocks of such companies are cross listed, one in India and other at the International stock exchange. The sensitivity and movements of stock prices on one stock exchange as compared to other may have an impact on the price movement of the particular scrip. If there is any relationship exists is an issue of study. Having this in view this study is an attempt to identify the extent of impact of price movement of the scrip on one stock exchange on account of change in the prices on the counter stock exchange. Also there is an attempt to find out the difference between pre and post cross listed domestic firm. The study also analyses the impact of exchange rate movements on stock prices.

Keywords: ADR, GDR, cross listing, liquidity, exchange rate

Procedia PDF Downloads 381

Authors: A. Al-Rifaie, Z. W. Guan, S. W. Jones

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Beam to column connection can be considered as the most important structural part that affects the response of buildings to progressive collapse. However, many studies were conducted to investigate the beam to column connection under accidental loads such as fire, blast and impact load to investigate the connection response. The study is a part of a PhD plan to investigate different types of connections under lateral impact load. The conventional test setups, such as cruciform setup, were designed to apply shear forces and bending moment on the connection, whilst, in the lateral impact case, the connection is subjected to combined tension and moment. Hence, a review is presented to introduce the previous test setup that is used to investigate the connection behaviour. Then, the design and fabrication of the novel test setup is presented. Finally, some trial test results to investigate the efficiency of the proposed setup are discussed. The final results indicate that the setup was efficient in terms of the simplicity and strength.

Keywords: connections, impact load, drop hammer, testing methods

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Authors: Ramin Vafadary, Maryam Khanbaghi

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Forecasting electricity load is important for various purposes like planning, operation, and control. Forecasts can save operating and maintenance costs, increase the reliability of power supply and delivery systems, and correct decisions for future development. This paper compares various time series methods to forecast 24 hours ahead of electricity load. The methods considered are the Holt-Winters smoothing, SARIMA Modeling, LSTM Network, Fbprophet, and Tensorflow probability. The performance of each method is evaluated by using the forecasting accuracy criteria, namely, the mean absolute error and root mean square error. The National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) residential energy consumption data is used to train the models. The results of this study show that the SARIMA model is superior to the others for 24 hours ahead forecasts. Furthermore, a Bagging technique is used to make the predictions more robust. The obtained results show that by Bagging multiple time-series forecasts, we can improve the robustness of the models for 24 hours ahead of electricity load forecasting.

Keywords: bagging, Fbprophet, Holt-Winters, LSTM, load forecast, SARIMA, TensorFlow probability, time series

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Authors: E. Benga, T. Tengen, A. Alugongo

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Periodic and continuous inventory models are the two classical management tools used to handle inventories. These models have advantages and disadvantages. The implementation of both continuous (r,Q) inventory and periodic (R, S) inventory models in most manufacturing plants comes with higher cost. Such high inventory costs are due to the fact that most manufacturing plants are not flexible enough. Since demand and lead-time are two important variables of every inventory models, their effect on the flexibility of the manufacturing plant matter most. Unfortunately, these effects are not clearly understood by managers. The reason is that the decision parameters of the continuous (r, Q) inventory and periodic (R, S) inventory models are not designed to effectively deal with the issues of uncertainties such as poor manufacturing performances, delivery performance supplies performances. There is, therefore, a need to come up with a predictive and hybrid inventory model that can combine in some sense the feature of the aforementioned inventory models. A linear combination technique is used to hybridize both continuous (r, Q) inventory and periodic (R, S) inventory models. The behavior of such hybrid inventory model is described by a differential equation and then optimized. From the results obtained after simulation, the continuous (r, Q) inventory model is more effective than the periodic (R, S) inventory models in the short run, but this difference changes as time goes by. Because the hybrid inventory model is more cost effective than the continuous (r,Q) inventory and periodic (R, S) inventory models in long run, it should be implemented for strategic decisions.

Keywords: periodic inventory, continuous inventory, hybrid inventory, optimization, manufacturing plant

Procedia PDF Downloads 382

Authors: Piyanee Khumpao

Abstract:

Under the Thai Penal Code and Customs Act, sex toys are criminalized and completely prohibited through the legal interpretation as obscene objects by law enforcement, despite there is no explicit legal sanction against them. The purpose of preventing people from accessing sex toys is to preserve public morals. However, sex toys are still available, exposed, and sold publicly in main cities throughout Thailand. They are easily observed by people of any age. This paper argues that sexuality is human nature and human right. Human deserves sexual pleasure as long as getting sexual pleasure does not inflict any harm on others. Using sex toys in private (individually and/or as a couple with mutual consent) does not constitute any harm nor degrade public moral. Therefore, the complete ban of sex toys shall be lifted and decriminalized. Nevertheless, the economic analysis illustrates that criminalization and prohibition of sex toys would lead to its black market – higher price and lower quantity. Although it is socially desirable to have fewer sex toys in the market, there will usually be high demand for them because sexual pleasure is natural and, hence, people have a lower price elasticity of demand for such things, including pornography. Thus, its deterrent effect is not very effective. Moreover, sex toys vendors still always exist because higher price incentivizes them to act illegally and may gain benefits from selling low-quality sex toys. Consequently, consumers do not have a choice to select high-quality sex toys at a reasonable price. Then, they are forced to purchase low quality sex toys at a higher price. They also may suffer from health issues as well as other harms from its dangerous/toxic substances since lower quality products are manufactured poorly to save costs. A law and economics approach supports the decriminalization of sex toys in Thailand. Other measures to control its availability shall be adopted to protect the vulnerable, such as children. Options are i) zoning or regulation on-premises selling sex toys as in Singapore, Japan, and China, ii) regulations of sex toys as medical apparatus like in the state of Alabama, and iii) the prevention of sex toys exposure in the real (physical) appearance (i.e., allowing virtual exposure of sex toys) like in India.

Keywords: human nature, law and economics approach, sex toys, sexual pleasure

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Authors: Sungik Kang, Ja-Hoon Koo

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Globally, urban environments have become unequal, and cities have been segmented by income class. It is predicted that urban inequality has arisen by urban redevelopment and reconstruction projects that improve the urban environment and innovate cities. This study aims to analyze the occurrence and characteristics of urban inequality by using the housing price and sale price and demonstrating the correlation with the urban redevelopment project. This study measures 14 years of urban inequality index for 25 autonomous districts in Seoul and analyzes the correlation between urban inequality with urban redevelopment projects. As a conclusion of this study, first, the urban inequality index of Seoul has been continuously rising since 2015. Trends from 2006 to 2019 have been in U-curved shape in between 2015. In 2019, Seoul's urban inequality index was 0.420, a level similar to that of the 2007 financial crisis. Second, the correlation between urban redevelopment and urban inequality was not statistically significant. Therefore, we judged that urban redevelopment's scale or project structure has nothing with urban inequality. Third, while district designation of urban reconstruction temporarily alleviates urban inequality, the completion of the project increases urban inequality. When designating a district, urban inequality is likely to decrease due to decreased outdated housing transactions. However, the correlation with urban inequality increases as expensive houses has been placed after project completion.

Keywords: urban inequality, urban redevelopment projects, urban reconstruction projects, housing price inequality, panel analysis

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Authors: Said Yousif Khairi

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Being a developing economy, imports of capital, raw materials and manufactories goods are vital for sustainable economic growth. In 2006, Libya imported LD 8 billion (US$ 6.25 billion) which composed of mainly machinery and transport equipment (49.3%), raw material (18%), and food products and live animals (13%). This represented about 10% of GDP. Thus, it is pertinent to investigate factors affecting the amount of Libyan imports. An econometric model representing the aggregate import demand for Libya was developed and estimated using the bounds test procedure, which based on an unrestricted error correction model (UECM). The data employed for the estimation was from 1970–2010. The results of the bounds test revealed that the volume of imports and its determinants namely real income, consumer price index and exchange rate are co-integrated. The findings indicate that the demand for imports is inelastic with respect to income, index price level and The exchange rate variable in the short run is statistically significant. In the long run, the income elasticity is elastic while the price elasticity and the exchange rate remains inelastic. This indicates that imports are important elements for Libyan economic growth in the long run.

Keywords: import demand, UECM, bounds test, Libya

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Authors: Siddarth A., Bhoomika K.

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Campuskart is a web-based platform that enables college students to buy and sell various items related to electronics, books, project materials, and electronic gadgets at reasonable prices. The application offers students the opportunity to resell their items at valuable and worthwhile prices, while also providing customers with the chance to purchase items at a lower price than the market price. The forthcoming paper will outline the various processes involved in developing the web application, including the design process, methodology, and overall functioning of the system. It will offer a comprehensive overview of how the platform operates and how it can benefit college students looking for affordable and convenient options for buying and selling various items.

Keywords: campuskart, web development, data structures, studentfriendlywebsite

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Authors: Eugene Y. C. Wong, Daniel Y. W. Mo, Cosmo T. Y. Ng, Jessica K. Y. Chan, Leith K. Y. Chan, Henry Y. K. Lau

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The real-time planning visualisation, precise allocation and loading optimisation in air cargo load planning operations are increasingly important as more considerations are needed on dangerous cargo loading, locations of lithium batteries, weight declaration and limited aircraft capacity. The planning of the unit load devices (ULD) can often be carried out only in a limited number of hours before flight departure. A dynamic air cargo load planning system is proposed with the optimisation of cargo load plan and visualisation of planning results in virtual reality systems. The system aims to optimise the cargo load planning and visualise the simulated loading planning decision on air cargo terminal operations. Adopting simulation tools, Cave Automatic Virtual Environment (CAVE) and virtual reality technologies, the results of planning with reference to weight and balance, Unit Load Device (ULD) dimensions, gateway, cargo nature and aircraft capacity are optimised and presented. The virtual reality system facilities planning, operations, education and training. Staff in terminals are usually trained in a traditional push-approach demonstration with enormous manual paperwork. With the support of newly customized immersive visualization environment, users can master the complex air cargo load planning techniques in a problem based training with the instant result being immersively visualised. The virtual reality system is developed with three-dimensional (3D) projectors, screens, workstations, truss system, 3D glasses, and demonstration platform and software. The content will be focused on the cargo planning and loading operations in an air cargo terminal. The system can assist decision-making process during cargo load planning in the complex operations of air cargo terminal operations. The processes of cargo loading, cargo build-up, security screening, and system monitoring can be further visualised. Scenarios are designed to support and demonstrate the daily operations of the air cargo terminal, including dangerous goods, pets and animals, and some special cargos.

Keywords: air cargo load planning, optimisation, virtual reality, weight and balance, unit load device

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Authors: Caio Marcelo Nunes, Anderson da Silva Soares, Gustavo Teodoro Laureano, Clarimar Jose Coelho

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This paper presents a methodology to pixel recognition in aerial images using fuzzy $c$-means algorithm. This algorithm is a alternative to recognize areas considering uncertainties and inaccuracies. Traditional clustering technics are used in recognizing of multispectral images of earth's surface. This technics recognize well-defined borders that can be easily discretized. However, in the real world there are many areas with uncertainties and inaccuracies which can be mapped by clustering algorithms that use fuzzy sets. The methodology presents in this work is applied to multispectral images obtained from Landsat-5/TM satellite. The pixels are joined using the $c$-means algorithm. After, a classification process identify the types of surface according the patterns obtained from spectral response of image surface. The classes considered are, exposed soil, moist soil, vegetation, turbid water and clean water. The results obtained shows that the fuzzy clustering identify the real type of the earth's surface.

Keywords: aerial images, fuzzy clustering, image processing, pattern recognition

Procedia PDF Downloads 482

Authors: Onur Kaya, Halit Bayer

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Global grocery and supermarket sales are among the largest markets in the world and perishable products such as fresh produce, dairy and meat constitute the biggest section of these markets. Due to their deterioration over time, the demand for these products depends highly on their freshness. They become totally obsolete after a certain amount of time causing a high amount of wastage and decreases in grocery profits. In addition, customers are asking for higher product variety in perishable product categories, leading to less predictable demand per product and to more out-dating. Effective management of these perishable products is an important issue since it is observed that billions of dollars’ worth of food is expired and wasted every month. We consider coordinated inventory and pricing decisions for perishable products with a time and price dependent random demand function. We use stochastic dynamic programming to model this system for both periodically-reviewed and continuously-reviewed inventory systems and prove certain structural characteristics of the optimal solution. We prove that the optimal ordering decision scenario has a monotone structure and the optimal price value decreases by time. However, the optimal price changes in a non-monotonic structure with respect to inventory size. We also analyze the effect of 1 different parameters on the optimal solution through numerical experiments. In addition, we analyze simple-to-implement heuristics, investigate their effectiveness and extract managerial insights. This study gives valuable insights about the management of perishable products in order to decrease wastage and increase profits.

Keywords: age-dependent demand, dynamic programming, perishable inventory, pricing

Procedia PDF Downloads 247

Authors: Shih-Ching Wang, Mark Lang

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This paper examines the secondary effects and consequences of special displays on subsequent shopping behavior. Special displays are studied as a prominent form of in-store or shopper marketing activity. Two experiments are performed using special value and special quality-oriented displays in an online simulated store environment. The impact of exposure to special displays on mindsets and resulting product choices are tested in a shopping task. Impact on store image is also tested. The experiments find that special displays do trigger shopping mindsets that affect product choices and shopping basket composition and value. There are intended and unintended positive and negative effects found. Special value displays improve store price image but trigger a price sensitive shopping mindset that causes more lower-priced items to be purchased, lowering total basket dollar value. Special natural food displays improve store quality image and trigger a quality-oriented mindset that causes fewer lower-priced items to be purchased, increasing total basket dollar value. These findings extend the theories of product categorization, mind-sets, and price sensitivity found in communication research into the retail store environment. Findings also warn retailers to consider the total effects and consequences of special displays when designing and executing in-store or shopper marketing activity.

Keywords: special displays, mindset, shopping behavior, price consciousness, product categorization, store image

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Authors: Dodi Ikhsanshaleh

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When subjected to dynamic load, foundation oscillates in the way that depends on the soil behaviour, the geometry and inertia of the foundation and the dynamic exctation. The practical guideline to analysis block-type foundation excitated by dynamic load from vibrating machine is presented. The analysis use Lumped Mass Parameter Method to express dynamic properties such as stiffness and damping of soil. The numerical examples are performed on design block-type foundation supporting gas turbine compressor which is important equipment package in gas processing plant

Keywords: block foundation, dynamic load, lumped mass parameter

Procedia PDF Downloads 490

Authors: Yeo Kyeong Lee, Ji Yeon Kang, Eun Mi Ryu, Hee Sun Kim, Yeong Soo Shin

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The objective of this paper is an investigation of the effects of the thickness and axial loading during a fire test on the load-bearing capacity of a fire-damaged normal-strength concrete wall. Two factors are attributed to the temperature distributions in the concrete members and are mainly obtained through numerous experiments. Toward this goal, three wall specimens of different thicknesses are heated for 2 h according to the ISO-standard heating curve, and the temperature distributions through the thicknesses are measured using thermocouples. In addition, two wall specimens are heated for 2 h while simultaneously being subjected to a constant axial loading at their top sections. The test results show that the temperature distribution during the fire test depends on wall thickness and axial load during the fire test. After the fire tests, the specimens are cured for one month, followed by the loading testing. The heated specimens are compared with three unheated specimens to investigate the residual load-bearing capacities. The fire-damaged walls show a minor difference of the load-bearing capacity regarding the axial loading, whereas a significant difference became evident regarding the wall thickness. To validate the experiment results, finite element models are generated for which the material properties that are obtained for the experiment are subject to elevated temperatures, and the analytical results show sound agreements with the experiment results. The analytical method based on validated thought experimental results is applied to generate the fire-damaged walls with 2,800 mm high considering the buckling effect: typical story height of residual buildings in Korea. The models for structural analyses generated to deformation shape after thermal analysis. The load-bearing capacity of the fire-damaged walls with pin supports at both ends does not significantly depend on the wall thickness, the reason for it is restraint of pinned ends. The difference of the load-bearing capacity of fire-damaged walls as axial load during the fire is within approximately 5 %.

Keywords: normal-strength concrete wall, wall thickness, axial-load ratio, slenderness ratio, fire test, residual strength, finite element analysis

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Authors: Youn-Hwan Kim, Jae-Won Moon, Hae-Joong Kim

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This paper introduces the study on the method of accelerated life test to electrical rotating system. In recent years, as well as efficiency for motors and generators, there is a growing need for research on the life expectancy. It is considered impossible to calculate the acceleration coefficient by increasing the rotational load or temperature load as the acceleration stress in the motor system because the temperature of the copper exceeds the wire thermal class rating. In this paper, the accelerated life test methods of the electrical rotating system are classified according to the application. This paper describes the development of the test procedure for the highly accelerated life test (HALT) of the 100kW permanent magnet synchronous motor (PMSM) of electric vehicle. Finally, it explains how to select acceleration load for vibration, temperature, bearing load, etc. for accelerated life test.

Keywords: acceleration coefficient, electric vehicle motor, HALT, life expectancy, vibration

Procedia PDF Downloads 326

Authors: C. Senabre, S. Valero, M. Lopez, E. Velasco, M. Sanchez

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This paper focuses on an application of linear mixed models to short-term load forecasting. The challenge of this research is to improve a currently working model at the Spanish Transport System Operator, programmed by us, and based on linear autoregressive techniques and neural networks. The forecasting system currently forecasts each of the regions within the Spanish grid separately, even though the behavior of the load in each region is affected by the same factors in a similar way. A load forecasting system has been verified in this work by using the real data from a utility. In this research it has been used an integration of several regions into a linear mixed model as starting point to obtain the information from other regions. Firstly, the systems to learn general behaviors present in all regions, and secondly, it is identified individual deviation in each regions. The technique can be especially useful when modeling the effect of special days with scarce information from the past. The three most relevant regions of the system have been used to test the model, focusing on special day and improving the performance of both currently working models used as benchmark. A range of comparisons with different forecasting models has been conducted. The forecasting results demonstrate the superiority of the proposed methodology.

Keywords: short-term load forecasting, mixed effects models, neural networks, mixed effects models

Procedia PDF Downloads 189

Authors: Mahmoud M. Othman, Almoataz Y. Abdelaziz, Yasser G. Hegazy

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This paper presents a load control strategy based on modification of the Big Bang Big Crunch optimization method. The proposed strategy aims to determine the optimal load to be controlled and the corresponding time of control in order to minimize the energy purchased from substation. The presented strategy helps the distribution network operator to rely on the renewable energy sources in supplying the system demand. The renewable energy sources used in the presented study are modeled using the diagonal band Copula method and sequential Monte Carlo method in order to accurately consider the multivariate stochastic dependence between wind power, photovoltaic power and the system demand. The proposed algorithms are implemented in MATLAB environment and tested on the IEEE 37-node feeder. Several case studies are done and the subsequent discussions show the effectiveness of the proposed algorithm.

Keywords: big bang big crunch, distributed generation, load control, optimization, planning

Procedia PDF Downloads 344

Authors: Elijah Acquah-Andoh

Abstract:

The UK has had its fair share of the shale gas revolutionary waves blowing across the global oil and gas industry at present. Although, its exploitation is widely agreed to have been delayed, shale gas was looked upon favorably by the UK Parliament when they recognized it as genuine energy source and granted licenses to industry to search and extract the resource. This, although a significant progress by industry, there yet remains another test the UK fracking resource must pass in order to render shale gas extraction feasible – it must be economically extractible and sustainably so. Developing unconventional resources is much more expensive and risky, and for shale gas wells, producing in commercial volumes is conditional upon drilling horizontal wells and hydraulic fracturing, techniques which increase CAPEX. Meanwhile, investment in shale gas development projects is sensitive to gas price and technical and geological risks. Using a Two-Factor Model, the economics of the Bowland shale wells were analyzed and the operational conditions under which fracking is profitable in the UK was characterized. We find that there is a great degree of flexibility about Opex spending; hence Opex does not pose much threat to the fracking industry in the UK. However, we discover Bowland shale gas wells fail to add value at gas price of $8/ Mmbtu. A minimum gas price of $12/Mmbtu at Opex of no more than $2/ Mcf and no more than $14.95M Capex are required to create value within the present petroleum tax regime, in the UK fracking industry.

Keywords: capex, economical, investment, profitability, shale gas development, sustainable

Procedia PDF Downloads 579

Authors: Min Chen, Rubi Gupta

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Understanding and predicting stock market movements is a challenging problem. It is believed stock markets are partially driven by public sentiments, which leads to numerous research efforts to predict stock market trend using public sentiments expressed on social media such as Twitter but with limited success. Recently a microblogging website StockTwits is becoming increasingly popular for users to share their discussions and sentiments about stocks and financial market. In this project, we analyze the text content of StockTwits tweets and extract financial sentiment using text featurization and machine learning algorithms. StockTwits tweets are first pre-processed using techniques including stopword removal, special character removal, and case normalization to remove noise. Features are extracted from these preprocessed tweets through text featurization process using bags of words, N-gram models, TF-IDF (term frequency-inverse document frequency), and latent semantic analysis. Machine learning models are then trained to classify the tweets' sentiment as positive (bullish) or negative (bearish). The correlation between the aggregated daily sentiment and daily stock price movement is then investigated using Pearson’s correlation coefficient. Finally, the sentiment information is applied together with time series stock data to predict stock price movement. The experiments on five companies (Apple, Amazon, General Electric, Microsoft, and Target) in a duration of nine months demonstrate the effectiveness of our study in improving the prediction accuracy.

Keywords: machine learning, sentiment analysis, stock price prediction, tweet processing

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Authors: B. Mavhuru, N. S. Nethengwe

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Human activities on land degradation have triggered several environmental problems especially in rural areas that are underdeveloped. The main aim of this study is to analyze the contribution of different land uses to gully development and sediment load on the Nzhelele River Valley in the Limpopo Province. Data was collected using different methods such as observation, field data techniques and experiments. Satellite digital images, topographic maps, aerial photographs and the sediment load static model also assisted in determining how land use affects gully development and sediment load. For data analysis, the researcher used the following methods: Analysis of Variance (ANOVA), descriptive statistics, Pearson correlation coefficient and statistical correlation methods. The results of the research illustrate that high land use activities create negative changes especially in areas that are highly fragile and vulnerable. Distinct impact on land use change was observed within settlement area (9.6 %) within a period of 5 years. High correlation between soil organic matter and soil moisture (R=0.96) was observed. Furthermore, a significant variation (p ≤ 0.6) between the soil organic matter and soil moisture was also observed. A very significant variation (p ≤ 0.003) was observed in bulk density and extreme significant variations (p ≤ 0.0001) were observed in organic matter and soil particle size. The sand mining and agricultural activities has contributed significantly to the amount of sediment load in the Nzhelele River. A high significant amount of total suspended sediment (55.3 %) and bed load (53.8 %) was observed within the agricultural area. The connection which associates the development of gullies to various land use activities determines the amount of sediment load. These results are consistent with other previous research and suggest that land use activities are likely to exacerbate the development of gullies and sediment load in the Nzhelele River Valley.

Keywords: drainage basin, geomorphological processes, gully development, land degradation, riparian land use and sediment load

Procedia PDF Downloads 307

Authors: Abdulrahman M. Alsuhaibani, Martin Maken

Abstract:

FACTS devices have great influence on the grid stability and power markets price. Recently, there is intent to integrate a large scale of renewable energy sources to the power system which in turn push the power system to operate closer to the security limits. This paper discusses the power system stability and reliability improvement that could be achieved by using FACTS. There is a comparison between FACTS devices to evaluate their performance for different functions. A case study has also been made about its effect on reducing generation cost and minimizing transmission losses which have good impact on efficient and economic operation of electricity markets

Keywords: FACTS, grid stability, spot price, OPF

Procedia PDF Downloads 158