Search results for: geological uncertainty

Authors: M. M. S. Prahastomi, M. Muhajir Saputra, Axel Derian

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Lapindo mud (LUSI ) phenomenon which occurred in Sidoarjo 2006 is a national scale of the geological phenomenon. This mudflow forms a mud volcano that spreads by time is in the need of serious treatment. Some further research has been conducted either by the application method of geodesy, geophysics, and subsurface geology, but still remains a mystery to this phenomenon. Sidoarjo Physiographic regions are included in the Kendeng zone flanked by Rembang zones in northern and Solo zones in southern. In this region revealed Kabuh formation, Jombang formation, and alluvium. In general, in the northern part of the area is composed of sedimentary rocks Sidoarjo klastika, epiklastic, pyroclastics, and older alluvium of the Early Pleistocene to Resen. The study was conducted with the literature study of the stratigraphy and regional geology as well as secondary data from observations coupled gravity method (Anomaly Bouger). The aim of the study is to reveal the subsurface geology structure pattern and the changes in mass flow. Gravity anomaly data were obtained from the calculation of the value of gravity and altitude, then processed into gravity anomaly contours which reflect changes in density of each group observed gravity. The gravity data could indicate a bottom surface which deformation occur the stronger or more intense to the south. Deformation in the form of gravity impairment was associated with a decrease in future density which is indicated by the presence of gas, water and gas bursts. Sectional analysis of changes in the measured value of gravity at different times indicates a change in the value of gravity caused by the presence of subsurface subsidence. While the gravity anomaly section describes the fault zone causes the zone to be unstable.

Keywords: mud volcano, Lumpur Sidoarjo, Bouger anomaly, Indonesia

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Authors: M. Ndeley

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Now our days, Almost all manufacturing facilities need to use production planning and scheduling systems to increase productivity and to reduce production costs. Real-life production operations are subject to a large number of unexpected disruptions that may invalidate the original schedules. In these cases, rescheduling is essential to minimize the impact on the performance of the system. In this work we consider flow shop layouts that have seldom been studied in the rescheduling literature. We generate and employ three types of disruption that interrupt the original schedules simultaneously. We develop rescheduling algorithms to finally accomplish the twofold objective of establishing a standard framework on the one hand; and proposing rescheduling methods that seek a good trade-off between schedule quality and stability on the other.

Keywords: flow shop scheduling, uncertainty, rescheduling, stability

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Authors: Anthony Coogan

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Born’s probability interpretation of wave functions would have led to nearly identical results had he chosen a frequency interpretation instead. Logically, Born may have assumed that only one electron was under consideration, making it nonsensical to propose a frequency wave. Author’s suggestion: the actual experimental results were not of a single electron; rather, they were groups of reflected x-ray photons. The vertical waveform used by Scrhödinger in his Particle in the Box Theory makes sense if it was intended to represent a quantum leap. The author extended the single vertical panel to form a bar chart: separate panels would represent different energy levels. The proposed bar chart would be populated by reflected photons. Expansion of basic ideas: Part of Scrhödinger’s ‘Particle in the Box’ theory may be valid despite negative criticism. The waveform used in the diagram is vertical, which may seem absurd because real waves decay at a measurable rate, rather than instantaneously. However, there may be one notable exception. Supposedly, following from the theory, the Uncertainty Principle was derived – may a Quantum Leap not be represented as an instantaneous waveform? The great Scrhödinger must have had some reason to suggest a vertical waveform if the prevalent belief was that they did not exist. Complex wave forms representing a particle are usually assumed to be continuous. The actual observations made were x-ray photons, some of which had struck an electron, been reflected, and then moved toward a detector. From Born’s perspective, doing similar work the years in question 1926-7, he would also have considered a single electron – leading him to choose a probability distribution. Probability Distributions appear very similar to Frequency Distributions, but the former are considered to represent the likelihood of future events. Born’s interpretation of the results of quantum experiments led (or perhaps misled) many researchers into claiming that humans can influence events just by looking at them, e.g. collapsing complex wave functions by 'looking at the electron to see which slit it emerged from', while in reality light reflected from the electron moved in the observer’s direction after the electron had moved away. Astronomers may say that they 'look out into the universe' but are actually using logic opposed to the views of Newton and Hooke and many observers such as Romer, in that light carries information from a source or reflector to an observer, rather the reverse. Conclusion: Due to the controversial nature of these ideas, especially its implications about the nature of complex numbers used in applications in science and engineering, some time may pass before any consensus is reached.

Keywords: complex wave functions not necessary, frequency distributions instead of wave functions, information carried by light, sketch graph of uncertainty principle

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Authors: R. H. Fattepur, Sameer R. Fattepur, D. K. Sreekantha

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Dairy Farming is one of the key industries in India. India is the leading producer and also the consumer of milk, milk-based products in the world. In this paper, we have attempted to the replace the human expert system and to develop an artificial expert system prototype to increase the speed and accuracy of decision making dairy farming credit risk evaluation. Fuzzy logic is used for dealing with uncertainty, vague and acquired knowledge, fuzzy rule base method is used for representing this knowledge for building an effective expert system.

Keywords: expert system, fuzzy logic, knowledge base, dairy farming, credit risk

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Authors: S. P. Bansal, Mukesh Kumar Sharma, Ankit Prabhakar

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Luhri Hydroelectric Project Stage-I (210 MW) is a run of the river type development with a dam toe surface powerhouse (122m long, 50.50m wide, and 65.50m high) on the right bank of river Satluj in Himachal Pradesh, India. The project is located in the inner lesser Himalaya between Dhauladhar Range in the south and higher Himalaya in the north in the seismically active region. At the project, the location river is confined within narrow V-shaped valleys with little or no flat areas close to the river bed. Nearly 120m high cut slopes behind the powerhouse are proposed from the powerhouse foundation level of 795m to ± 915m to accommodate the surface powerhouse. The stability of 120m high cut slopes is a prime concern for the reason of risk involved. The slopes behind the powerhouse will be excavated in mainly in augen gneiss, fresh to weathered in nature, and biotite rich at places. The foliation joints are favorable and dipping inside the hill. Two valleys dipping steeper joints will be encountered on the slopes, which can cause instability during excavation. Geological exploration plays a vital role in designing and optimization of cut slopes. SWEDGE software has been used to analyze the geometry and stability of surface wedges in cut slopes. The slopes behind powerhouse have been analyzed in three zones for stability analysis by providing a break in the continuity of cut slopes, which shall provide quite substantial relief for slope stabilization measure. Pseudo static analysis has been carried out for the stabilization of wedges. The results indicate that many large wedges are forming, which have a factor of safety less than 1. The stability measures (support system, bench width, slopes) have been planned so that no wedge failure may occur in the future.

Keywords: cut slopes, geotechnical investigations, Himalayan geology, surface powerhouse, wedge failure

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Authors: K. E. Daryani, H. Mohamad

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Uncertainties in the geo-structure analysis and design have a significant impact on the safety of slopes. Traditionally, uncertainties in the geotechnical design are addressed by incorporating a conservative factor of safety in the analytical model. In this paper, a risk-based approach is adopted to assess the influence of the geotechnical variable uncertainties on the stability of infinite slopes in cohesionless soils using the “partial factor of safety on shear strength” approach as stated in Eurocode 7. Analyses conducted using Monte Carlo simulation show that the same partial factor can have very different levels of risk depending on the degree of uncertainty of the mean values of the soil friction angle and void ratio.

Keywords: Safety, Probability of Failure, Reliability, Infinite Slopes, Sand.

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Authors: Marwa Djebbi, Hakim Gabtni

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Gravity is a continuously advancing method that has become a mature technology for geological studies. Increasingly, it has been used to complement and constrain traditional seismic data and even used as the only tool to get information of the sub-surface. In fact, in some regions the seismic data, if available, are of poor quality and hard to be interpreted. Such is the case for the current study area. The Nefza zone is part of the Tellian fold and thrust belt domain in the north west of Tunisia. It is essentially made of a pile of allochthonous units resulting from a major Neogene tectonic event. Its tectonic and stratigraphic developments have always been subject of controversies. Considering the geological and hydrogeological importance of this area, a detailed interdisciplinary study has been conducted integrating geology, seismic and gravity techniques. The interpretation of Gravity data allowed the delimitation of the dune reservoir and the identification of the regional lineaments contouring the area. It revealed the presence of three gravity lows that correspond to the dune of Zouara and Ouchtata separated along with a positive gravity axis espousing the Ain Allega_Aroub Er Roumane axe. The Bouguer gravity map illustrated the compartmentalization of the Zouara dune into two depressions separated by a NW-SE anomaly trend. This constitution was confirmed by the vertical derivative map which showed the individualization of two depressions with slightly different anomaly values. The horizontal gravity gradient magnitude was performed in order to determine the different geological features present in the studied area. The latest indicated the presence of NE-SW parallel folds according to the major Atlasic direction. Also, NW-SE and EW trends were identified. The maxima tracing confirmed this direction by the presence of NE-SW faults, mainly the Ghardimaou_Cap Serrat accident. The quality of the available seismic sections and the absence of borehole data in the region, except few hydraulic wells that been drilled and showing the heterogeneity of the substratum of the dune, required the process of gravity modeling of this challenging area that necessitates to be modeled for the geometrical characterization of the dune reservoir and determine the different stratigraphic series underneath these deposits. For more detailed and accurate results, the scale of study will be reduced in coming research. A more concise method will be elaborated; the 4D microgravity survey. This approach is considered as an expansion of gravity method and its fourth dimension is time. It will allow a continuous and repeated monitoring of fluid movement in the subsurface according to the micro gal (μgall) scale. The gravity effect is a result of a monthly variation of the dynamic groundwater level which correlates with rainfall during different periods.

Keywords: 3D gravity modeling, dune reservoir, heterogeneous substratum, seismic interpretation

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Authors: Ibrahim M. Alwehaibi

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Recently the windows of globalization weirdly open, which increase the trade between the Western countries and Muslim nations. Sales of goods contracts are one of the most common business transaction in the world. This commercial exchange has faced many obstacles. One of the most concerned obstacles is the conflicts between laws. Thus, United Nation created a Convention on Contracts for the International Sale of Goods (CISG). Some of Islamic countries have ratified the CISG, while other Islamic countries have concerns about the feasibility of ratification of the CISG, and many businessmen have a concern of application of the convention. The concerns related to the conflict between CISG and Sharia, and the long debate about the success, ambiguity, and stability of the CISG. Therefore, this research will examine the feasibility of Muslim countries and Muslim businessmen to adopt the CISG by following steps: First, this research will introduce sharia Law (Islamic contracts law) and CISG and provide backgrounds of both laws. Second, this research will compare the provisions of CISG and Sharia and figuring out the conflicts and provide possible solutions for the conflicts. Third, this study will examine the advantages and disadvantages of adopting the CISG and examining the success of the CISG. Fourth, this study will explore the current situation in Islamic countries by taking Saudi Arabia as a case and explore how the application of Sharia law works and the possibility to enforce the CISG and explore the current practice of foreign Sales in Saudi Arabia. The research finds that there are some conflicts between CISG and Sharia Law. The most notable conflicts are interest and uncertainty in considerations. Also, this research finds that it seems that ratification of CISG is not beneficial for Muslim countries because the convention has not reached its goal which is uniformity of laws. Moreover, the CISG has been excluded and ignored by businessmen and some courts. Additionally, this research finds that it could be possible to enforce CISG in Saudi Arabia, provided that no conflict between the enforced provision and Sharia Law. This study is following the competitive and analysis methodologies to reach its findings. The researcher analyzes the provision of CISG and compares them with Sharia rules and finds the conflicts and compatibilities. In fact, CISG has 101 articles, so a comprehensive comparison of all articles in CISG with Sharia is difficult. Thus, in order to deeply analyze all aspects of this issue, this study will exclude some areas of contract which have been discussed by other researchers such as deliver of goods, conformity, and mirror image rules. The comparative section of this study will focus on the most concerned articles that conflict or doubtful of conflict with Sharia, which are interest, uncertainty, statute of limitation, specific performance, and pass of risk.

Keywords: Sharia, CISG, Contracts for International Sale of Goods, contracts, sale of goods, Saudi Arabia

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Authors: C. Shih, J. R. Wang, H. C. Chang, S. W. Chen, S. C. Chiang, T. Y. Yu

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After the measurement uncertainty recapture (MUR) power uprates, Kuosheng nuclear power plant (NPP) was uprated the power from 2894 MWt to 2943 MWt. For power upgrade, several codes (e.g., TRACE, RELAP5, etc.) were applied to assess the safety of Kuosheng NPP. Hence, the main work of this research is to establish a RELAP5/MOD3.3 model of Kuosheng NPP with SNAP interface. The establishment of RELAP5/SNAP model was referred to the FSAR, training documents, and TRACE model which has been developed and verified before. After completing the model establishment, the startup test scenarios would be applied to the RELAP5/SNAP model. With comparing the startup test data and TRACE analysis results, the applicability of RELAP5/SNAP model would be assessed.

Keywords: RELAP5, TRACE, SNAP, BWR

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Authors: N. A. Kharisa, I. Wulandari, R. Narendratama, M. I. Faisal, K. Kirana, R. Zipora, I. Arfiansah, I. Suyanto

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Acquisition of geophysical survey with magnetic method has been done in manifestation of geothermalat Candi Umbul, Grabag, Magelang, Central Java Province on 10-12 May 2013. This objective research is interpretation to interpret structural geology that control geothermal system in CandiUmbul area. The research has been finished with area size 1,5 km x 2 km and measurement space of 150 m. And each point of line space survey is 150 m using PPM Geometrics model G-856. Data processing was started with IGRF and diurnal variation correction to get total magnetic field anomaly. Then, advance processing was done until reduction to pole, upward continuation, and residual anomaly. That results become next interpretation in qualitative step. It is known that the biggest object position causes low anomaly located in central of area survey that comes from hot spring manifestation and demagnetization zone that indicates the existence of heat source activity. Then, modeling the anomaly map was used for quantitative interpretation step. The result of modeling is rock layers and geological structure model that can inform about the geothermal system. And further information from quantitative interpretations can be interpreted about lithology susceptibility. And lithology susceptibilities are andesiteas heat source has susceptibility value of (k= 0.00014 emu), basaltic as alteration rock (k= 0.0016 emu), volcanic breccia as reservoir rock (k= 0.0026 emu), andesite porfirtic as cap rock (k= 0.004 emu), lava andesite (k= 0.003 emu), and alluvium (k= 0.0007 emu). The hot spring manifestation is controlled by the normal fault which becomes a weak zone, easily passed by hot water which comes from the geothermal reservoir.

Keywords: geological structure, geothermal system, magnetic, susceptibility

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Authors: Veruska C. Dutra, Mary L. G. S. Senna

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The development of tourism is on the use of landscapes, natural or constructed, which involves a number of factors that contribute to the deterioration of nature. Tourist activity coupled with sustainable development has led to the emergence of many questions about these terms, since they are not well defined in this sense through literature searches. The present study was to analyze the main concepts and discussions involving sustainable tourism, providing reflections that can cause answers about one of the main questions in today's activity sector on whether its sustainability is a myth or reality. The methodology of this study is discussions, theoretical studies and bibliographic research. The results showed that the scholars who address the issue, often leave uncertainty about some discussions that demonstrate that there are still many studies to be conducted in order to prove that the claims so as to form the basis of what will be Tourism sustainable.

Keywords: tourism, sustainability, development, discussions

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Authors: Reem Abou Refaie, Christoph Meinel

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The paper explores the impact of the COVID-19 crisis on the internal as well as external digitalized work practices of public service providers as part of a Public-Private Partnership Model. It focuses on the effect of uncertainty on generating Open Innovation practices. Our inquiry relies on semi-structured interviews (n=14) from a case study of Rwanda’s Public Service Delivery System in the context of research cooperation with IremboGov, the country’s One-Stop-Shop Platform for public services. It presents four propositions on harnessing opportunities for OI in the context of the public sector beyond the pandemic response. Practitioners can find characterizations of OI opportunities and gain insights on fostering OI in Public Sector Organizations.

Keywords: open innovation, digital transformation, public sector, Rwanda

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Authors: Khaled Albriki, Feiyu Wang

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The failed rifted epicratonic Sirt basin is located in the northern margin of the African Plate with an area of approximately 600,000 km2. The organofacies' classification, characterization, and its distribution vertically and horizontally are carried out in 7 main troughs with 32 typical selected wells. 7 geological and geochemical cross sections including Rock-Eval data and % TOC data are considered in order to analyze and to characterize the main organofacies with respect to their geochemical and geological controls and also to remove the ambiguity behind the complexity of the orgnofacies types and distributions in the basin troughs from where the oil and gas are generated and migrated. This study confirmes that there are four different classical types of organofacies distributed in Sirt basin F, D/E, C, and B. these four clasical types of organofacies controls the type and amount of the hydrocarbon discovered in Sirt basin. Oil bulk property data from more than 20 oil and gas fields indicate that D/E organoface are significant oil and gas contributors similar to B organoface. In the western Sirt basin in Zallah-Dur Al Abd, Hagfa, Kotla, and Dur Atallha troughs, F organoface is identified for Etel formation, Kalash formation and Hagfa formation having % TOC < 0.6, whereas the good quality D/E and B organofacies present in Rachmat formation and Sirte shale formation both have % TOC > 1.1. Results from the deepest trough (Ajdabiya), Etel (Gas pron in Whadyat trough), Kalash, and Hagfa constitute F organofacies, mainly. The Rachmat and Sirt shale both have D/E to B organofacies with % TOC > 1.2, thus indicating the best organofacies quality in Ajdabiya trough. In Maragh trough, results show that Etel F organofacies and D/E, C to B organofacies related to Middle Nubian, Rachmat, and Sirte shale have %TOC > 0.66. Towards the eastern Sirt basin, in troughs (Hameimat, Faregh, and Sarir), results show that the Middle Nubian, Etel, Rachmat, and Sirte shales are strongly dominated by D/E, C to B (% TOC > 0.75) organofacies.

Keywords: Etel, Mid-Nubian, organic facies, Rachmat, Sirt basin, Sirte shale

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Authors: Mohammad Javad Mollakazemi, Farhad Asadi

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In this paper a real-time obstacle avoidance approach for both autonomous and non-autonomous dynamical systems (DS) is presented. In this approach the original dynamics of the controller which allow us to determine safety margin can be modulated. Different common types of DS increase the robot’s reactiveness in the face of uncertainty in the localization of the obstacle especially when robot moves very fast in changeable complex environments. The method is validated by simulation and influence of different autonomous and non-autonomous DS such as important characteristics of limit cycles and unstable DS. Furthermore, the position of different obstacles in complex environment is explained. Finally, the verification of avoidance trajectories is described through different parameters such as safety factor.

Keywords: limit cycles, nonlinear dynamical system, real time obstacle avoidance, safety margin

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Authors: Stepan Kuchar, Martin Golasowski, Radim Vavrik, Michal Podhoranyi, Boris Sir, Jan Martinovic

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The main goal of this article is to describe the online flood monitoring and prediction system Floreon+ primarily developed for the Moravian-Silesian region in the Czech Republic and the basic process it uses for running automatic rainfall-runoff and hydrodynamic simulations along with their calibration and uncertainty modeling. It takes a long time to execute such process sequentially, which is not acceptable in the online scenario, so the use of high-performance computing environment is proposed for all parts of the process to shorten their duration. Finally, a case study on the Ostravice river catchment is presented that shows actual durations and their gain from the parallel implementation.

Keywords: flood prediction process, high performance computing, online flood prediction system, parallelization

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Authors: Arezoo Sadrinezhad, Kallol Sett, S. I. Hariharan

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In this paper, a probabilistic framework based on Fokker-Planck-Kolmogorov (FPK) approach has been applied to simulate triaxial cyclic constitutive behavior of uncertain soils. The framework builds upon previous work of the writers, and it has been extended for cyclic probabilistic simulation of triaxial undrained behavior of soils. von Mises elastic-perfectly plastic material model is considered. It is shown that by using probabilistic framework, some of the most important aspects of soil behavior under cyclic loading can be captured even with a simple elastic-perfectly plastic constitutive model.

Keywords: elasto-plasticity, uncertainty, soils, fokker-planck equation, fourier spectral method, finite difference method

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Authors: Hanee Ryu

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The supporting policies for renewable energy have been designed to deploy renewable energy technology targeting domestic market. The government encourages market creation through obligations such as FIT or RPS on an energy supplier. With these policy measures, the securing vast market needs to induce technology development. Furthermore, it is crucial that ensuring developing market can make the environment nurture the renewable energy industry. Overseas expansion to countries being in demand is essential under immature domestic market. Extending its business abroad can make the domestic company get the knowledge through learning-by-doing. Besides, operation in the countries to be rich in renewable resources such as weather conditions helps to develop proven track record required for verifying technologies. This paper figures out the factor to hamper the global market entry and build up the strategies to overcome difficulties. Survey conducted renewable energy company having overseas experiences at least once. Based on the survey we check the obstacle against exporting home goods and services. As a result, securing funds is salient fact to proceed to business. It is difficult that only private bank or investment agencies participate in the project under uncertainty which renewable energy development project bears inherently. These uncertainties need public fund such as ODA to encourage private sectors to start a business. Furthermore, international organizations such as IRENA or multilateral development banks as WBG play a role to guarantee the investment including risk insurance against uncertainty. It can also manage excavation business cooperating with developing countries and supplement inadequate government funding involved. With survey results strategies to obtain the order, the international organization places are categorized according to the type of getting a contract. This paper suggests 3 types approaching to the international organization project (going through international competitive bidding, using ODA and project financing) and specifies the role of government to support the domestic firms with running out of funds. Under renewable energy industry environment where hard to being created as a spontaneous market, government policy approach needs to motivate the actors to get into the business. It is one of the good strategies that countries with the low demand of renewable energies participate in the project international agencies order in the developing countries having abundant resources. This provides crucial guidance for the formulation of renewable energy development policy and planning with consideration of business opportunities and funding.

Keywords: exporting strategies, multilateral development banks, promoting in developing countries, renewable energy technologies

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Authors: Hasan Alrashid

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The 2005 Hague Convention seeks to ensure legal certainty and predictability between parties in international business transactions. It harmonies exclusive choice of court agreements at the international level between parties to commercial transactions and to govern the recognition and enforcement of judgments resulting from proceedings based on such agreements to promote international trade and investment. Although the choice of court agreements is significant in international business transactions, the United Arab Emirates refuse to recognise it by Article 24 of the Federal Law No. 11 of 1992 of the Civil Procedure Code. A review of judicial judgments in United Arab Emirates up to the present day has revealed that several cases appeared before the Court in different states of United Arab Emirates regarding the recognition of exclusive choice of court agreements. In all the cases, the courts regarded the exclusive choice of court agreements as a direct assault on state authority and sovereignty and refused categorically to recognize choice of court agreements by refusing to stay proceedings in favor of the foreign chosen court. This has created uncertainty and unpredictability in international business transaction in the United Arab Emirates. In June 2011, the first Gulf Judicial Seminar on Cross-Frontier Legal Cooperation in Civil and Commercial Matters was held in Doha, Qatar. The Permanent Bureau of the Hague Conference attended the conference and invited the states of the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) namely, The United Arab Emirates, Bahrain, Saudi Arabia, Oman, Qatar and Kuwait to adopt some of the Hague Conventions, one of which was the Hague Convention on Choice of Court Agreements. One of the recommendations of the conference was that the GCC states should research ‘the benefits of predictability and legal certainty provided by the 2005 Convention on Choice of Court Agreements and its resulting advantages for cross-border trade and investment’ for possible adoption of the Hague Convention. Up to today, no further step has been taken by the any of the GCC states to adapt the Hague Convention nor did they conduct research on the benefits of predictability and legal certainty in international business transactions. This paper will argue that the approach regarding the recognition of choice of court agreements in United Arab Emirates states can be improved in order to help the parties in international business transactions avoid parallel litigation and ensure legal certainty and predictability. The focus will be the uncertainty and gaps regarding the choice of court agreements in the United Arab Emirates states. The Hague Convention on choice of court agreements and the importance of harmonisation of the rules of choice of court agreements at international level will also be discussed. Finally, The feasibility and desirability of recognizing choice of court agreements in United Arab Emirates legal system by becoming a party to the Hague Convention will be evaluated.

Keywords: choice of court agreements, party autonomy, public authority, sovereignty

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Authors: Ramon Erasmo Verdin Rodriguez

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Many has been the ways that historically the managers and gurus has been trying to get closer to the perfect supply chain, but since this topic is so vast and very complex the bigger the companies are, the duty has not been certainly easy. On this research, you are going to see thru the entrails of the logistics that happens at a glass manufacturing company with the number one raw material of the process that is the silica sand. After a very quick passage thru the supply chain, this document is going to focus on the way that raw materials flow thru the system, so after that, an analysis and research can take place to improve the logistics. Thru Operations Research techniques, it will be analyzed the current scheme of distribution and inventories of raw materials at a glass company’s plants, so after a mathematical conceptualization process, the supply chain could be optimized with the purpose of reducing the uncertainty of supply and obtaining an economic benefit at the very end of this research.

Keywords: inventory management, operations research, optimization, supply chain

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Authors: Temesgen Oljira, Olugbenga Akindeji Okunlola, Akinade Shadrach Olatunji, Dereje Ayalew, Bekele Ayele Bedada

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The Western Ethiopian Shield (WES) is underlain by volcano-sedimentary terranes, gneissic terranes, and ophiolitic rocks intruded by different granitoid bodies. For the past few years, Neoproterozoic rocks of the Megele area in the western part of the WES have been explored. Understanding the geology of the area and assessing the mineralized area's economic potential requires petrological, geochemical, and geological characterization of the Neoproterozoic granitoids and associated metavolcanic rocks. Thus, the geological, geochemical, and petrogenetic features of Neoproterozoic granitoids and associated metavolcanic rocks were elucidated using a combination of field mapping, petrological, and geochemical study. The Megele area is part of a low-grade volcano-sedimentary zone that has been intruded by mafic (dolerite dyke) and granitoid intrusions (granodiorite, diorite, granite gneiss). The granodiorite, associated diorite, and granite gneiss are calc-alkaline, peraluminous to slightly metaluminous, S-type granitoids formed in volcanic arc subduction (VAG) to syn-collisional (syn-COLD) tectonic setting by fractionation of LREE-enriched, HREE-depleted basaltic magma with considerable crustal input. While the metabasalt is sub-alkaline (tholeiitic), metaluminous bodies are generated at the mid-oceanic ridge tectonic setting by partially melting HREE-depleted and LREE-enriched basaltic magma. The reworking of sediment-loaded crustal blocks at depth in a subduction zone resulted in the production of S-type granitoids. This basaltic magma was supplied from an LREE-enriched, HREE-depleted mantle.

Keywords: fractional crystallization, geochemistry, Megele, petrogenesis, s-type granite

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Authors: Balarabe Z. Ahmad, Anne-Lorène Vernay

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The emergence of electricity in Nigeria was dated back to 1896. The power plants have the potential to generate 12,522 MW of electric power. Whereas current dispatch is about 4,000 MW, access to electrification is about 60%, with consumption at 0.14 MWh/capita. The government embarked on energy reforms to mitigate energy poverty. The reform targeted the provision of electricity access to 75% of the population by 2020 and 90% by 2030. Growth of total electricity demand by a factor of 5 by 2035 had been projected. This means that Nigeria will require almost 530 TWh of electricity which can be delivered through generators with a capacity of 65 GW. Analogously, the geographical location of Nigeria has placed it in an advantageous position as the source of solar energy; the availability of a high sunshine belt is obvious in the country. The implication is that the far North, where energy poverty is high, equally has about twice the solar radiation as against southern Nigeria. Hence, the chance of generating solar electricity is 66% possible at 11850 x 103 GWh per year, which is one hundred times the current electricity consumption rate in the country. Harvesting these huge potentials may be a mirage if the entrepreneurs in the solar panel business are left with the conventional business models that are not uncertainty resilient. Currently, business entities in RE in Nigeria are uncertain of; accessing the national grid, purchasing potentials of cooperating organizations, currency fluctuation and interest rate increases. Uncertainties such as the security of projects and government policy are issues entrepreneurs must navigate to remain sustainable in the solar panel industry in Nigeria. The aim of this paper is to identify how entrepreneurial firms consider uncertainties in developing workable business models for commercializing solar energy projects in Nigeria. In an attempt to develop a novel business model, the paper investigated how entrepreneurial firms assess and navigate uncertainties. The roles of key stakeholders in helping entrepreneurs to manage uncertainties in the Nigeria RE sector were probed in the ongoing study. The study explored empirical uncertainties that are peculiar to RE entrepreneurs in Nigeria. A mixed-mode of research was embraced using qualitative data from face-to-face interviews conducted on the Solar Energy Entrepreneurs and the experts drawn from key stakeholders. Content analysis of the interview was done using Atlas. It is a nine qualitative tool. The result suggested that all stakeholders are required to synergize in developing an uncertainty resilient business model. It was opined that the RE entrepreneurs need modifications in the business recommendations encapsulated in the energy policy in Nigeria to strengthen their capability in delivering solar energy solutions to the yawning Nigerians.

Keywords: uncertainties, entrepreneurial, business model, solar-panel

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Authors: Amin Jamili

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Nowadays, the majority of international trade in goods is carried by sea, and especially by ships deployed in the industrial and tramp segments. This paper addresses routing the tramp ships and determining the schedules including the arrival times to the ports, berthing times at the ports, and the departure times in an operational planning level. In the operational planning level, the weather can be almost exactly forecasted, however in some routes some uncertainties may remain. In this paper, the voyaging times between some of the ports are considered to be uncertain. To that end, a two-stage stochastic mathematical model is proposed. Moreover, a case study is tested with the presented model. The computational results show that this mathematical model is promising and can represent acceptable solutions.

Keywords: routing, scheduling, tram ships, two stage stochastic model, uncertainty

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Authors: Abhiram Siva Prasad Pamula

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Access to clean drinking water becomes scarce due to the increase in extreme weather events because of the rise in the average global temperatures and climate change. By 2030, approximately 47% of the world’s population will face water shortages due to uncertainty in seasonal rainfall. Over 10000 varieties of synthetic dyes are commercially available in the market and used by textile and paper industries, negatively impacting human health when ingested. Besides humans, textile dyes have a negative impact on aquatic ecosystems by increasing biological oxygen demand and chemical oxygen demand. This study assesses different treatment methods that remove dyes from textile wastewater while focusing on energy, economic, and engineering aspects of the treatment processes.

Keywords: textile wastewater, dye removal, treatment methods, hazardous pollutants

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Authors: Muhammad Shafiq

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In accelerated life testing approaches life time data is obtained under various conditions which are considered more severe than usual condition. Classical techniques are based on obtained precise measurements, and used to model variation among the observations. In fact, there are two types of uncertainty in data: variation among the observations and the fuzziness. Analysis techniques, which do not consider fuzziness and are only based on precise life time observations, lead to pseudo results. This study was aimed to examine the behavior of empirical acceleration functions using fuzzy lifetimes data. The results showed an increased fuzziness in the transformed life times as compare to the input data.

Keywords: acceleration function, accelerated life testing, fuzzy number, non-precise data

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Authors: Behnam Tavakkol

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Uncertain data mining algorithms use different ways to consider uncertainty in data such as by representing a data object as a sample of points or a probability distribution. Fuzzy methods have long been used for clustering traditional (certain) data objects. They are used to produce non-crisp cluster labels. For uncertain data, however, besides some uncertain fuzzy k-medoids algorithms, not many other fuzzy clustering methods have been developed. In this work, we develop a fuzzy kernel k-medoids algorithm for clustering uncertain data objects. The developed fuzzy kernel k-medoids algorithm is superior to existing fuzzy k-medoids algorithms in clustering data sets with non-linearly separable clusters.

Keywords: clustering algorithm, fuzzy methods, kernel k-medoids, uncertain data

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Authors: L. Abukova, O. Abramova, A. Goreva, Y. Yakovlev

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Important executive decisions on oil and gas production stimulation in Eastern Siberia have been recently taken. There are unique and large fields of oil, gas, and gas-condensate in Eastern Siberia. The Talakan, Koyumbinskoye, Yurubcheno-Tahomskoye, Kovykta, Chayadinskoye fields are supposed to be developed first. It will result in an abrupt increase in environmental load on the nature of Eastern Siberia. In Eastern Siberia, the introduction of ecological imperatives in hydrocarbon production is still realistic. Underground water movement is the one of the most important factors of the ecosystems condition management. Oil and gas production is associated with the forced displacement of huge water masses, mixing waters of different composition, and origin that determines the extent of anthropogenic impact on water drive systems and their protective reaction. An extensive hydrogeological system of the depression type is identified in the pre-salt deposits here. Pressure relieve here is steady up to the basement. The decrease of the hydrodynamic potential towards the basement with such a gradient resulted in reformation of the fields in process of historical (geological) development of the Nepsko-Botuobinskaya anteclise. The depression hydrodynamic systems are characterized by extremely high isolation and can only exist under such closed conditions. A steady nature of water movement due to a strictly negative gradient of reservoir pressure makes it quite possible to use environmentally-harmful liquid substances instead of water. Disposal of the most hazardous wastes is the most expedient in the deposits of the crystalline basement in certain structures distant from oil and gas fields. The time period for storage of environmentally-harmful liquid substances may be calculated by means of the geological time scales ensuring their complete prevention from releasing into environment or air even during strong earthquakes. Disposal of wastes of chemical and nuclear industries is a matter of special consideration. The existing methods of storage and disposal of wastes are very expensive. The methods applied at the moment for storage of nuclear wastes at the depth of several meters, even in the most durable containers, constitute a potential danger. The enormous size of the depression system of the Nepsko-Botuobinskaya anteclise makes it possible to easily identify such objects at the depth below 1500 m where nuclear wastes will be stored indefinitely without any environmental impact. Thus, the water drive system of the Nepsko-Botuobinskaya anteclise is the ideal object for large-volume injection of environmentally harmful liquid substances even if there are large oil and gas accumulations in the subsurface. Specific geological and hydrodynamic conditions of the system allow the production of hydrocarbons from the subsurface simultaneously with the disposal of industrial wastes of oil and gas, mining, chemical, and nuclear industries without any environmental impact.

Keywords: Eastern Siberia, formation pressure, underground water, waste burial

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Authors: Maryam Mohammadi, Mohammadjavad Mahdavinejad, Mojtaba Ansari

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The main driving force for increasing movement towards the design of High-Performance Buildings (HPB) are building codes and rating systems that address the various components of the building and their impact on the environment and energy conservation through various methods like prescriptive methods or simulation-based approaches. The methods and tools developed to meet these needs, which are often based on building performance simulation tools (BPST), have limitations in terms of compatibility with the integrated design process (IDP) and HPB design, as well as use by architects in the early stages of design (when the most important decisions are made). To overcome these limitations in recent years, efforts have been made to develop Design Decision Support Systems, which are often based on artificial intelligence. Numerous needs and steps for designing and developing a Decision Support System (DSS), which complies with the early stages of energy-efficient architecture design -consisting of combinations of different methods in an integrated package- have been listed in the literature. While various review studies have been conducted in connection with each of these techniques (such as optimizations, sensitivity and uncertainty analysis, etc.) and their integration of them with specific targets; this article is a critical and holistic review of the researches which leads to the development of applicable systems or introduction of a comprehensive framework for developing models complies with the IDP. Information resources such as Science Direct and Google Scholar are searched using specific keywords and the results are divided into two main categories: Simulation-based DSSs and Meta-simulation-based DSSs. The strengths and limitations of different models are highlighted, two general conceptual models are introduced for each category and the degree of compliance of these models with the IDP Framework is discussed. The research shows movement towards Multi-Level of Development (MOD) models, well combined with early stages of integrated design (schematic design stage and design development stage), which are heuristic, hybrid and Meta-simulation-based, relies on Big-real Data (like Building Energy Management Systems Data or Web data). Obtaining, using and combining of these data with simulation data to create models with higher uncertainty, more dynamic and more sensitive to context and culture models, as well as models that can generate economy-energy-efficient design scenarios using local data (to be more harmonized with circular economy principles), are important research areas in this field. The results of this study are a roadmap for researchers and developers of these tools.

Keywords: integrated design process, design decision support system, meta-simulation based, early stage, big data, energy efficiency

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Authors: Sania Maghsodloo, Sirus Mohammadi

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Electric Vehicle (EV) technology is expected to take a major share in the light-vehicle market in the coming decades. Transportation electrification has become an important issue in recent decades and the large scale deployment of EVs has yet to be achieved. The smart coordination of EV demand addresses an improvement in the flexibility of power systems and reduces the costs of power system investment. The uncertainty in EV drivers’ behaviour is one of the main problems to solve to obtain an optimal integration of EVs into power systems Charging of EVs will put an extra burden on the distribution grid and in some cases adjustments will need to be made. The stochastic process of the driving pattern is done to make the outcome of the project more realistic. Based on the stochastic data, the optimization of charging plans is made.

Keywords: electric vehicles (PEVs), smart grid, Monticello, distribution system

Procedia PDF Downloads 543

Authors: Dorna Kargar, Mehrasa Masih

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Due to its special geological and geographical conditions, Iran has always been exposed to various natural hazards. Earthquake is one of the natural hazards with random nature that can cause significant financial damages and casualties. This is a serious threat, especially in areas with active faults. Therefore, considering the population density in some parts of the country, locating and zoning high-risk areas are necessary and significant. In the present study, seismic hazard assessment via probabilistic and deterministic method for Tehran, the capital of Iran, which is located in Alborz-Azerbaijan province, has been done. The seismicity study covers a range of 200 km from the north of Tehran (X=35.74° and Y= 51.37° in LAT-LONG coordinate system) to identify the seismic sources and seismicity parameters of the study region. In order to identify the seismic sources, geological maps at the scale of 1: 250,000 are used. In this study, we used Kijko-Sellevoll's method (1992) to estimate seismicity parameters. The maximum likelihood estimation of earthquake hazard parameters (maximum regional magnitude Mmax, activity rate λ, and the Gutenberg-Richter parameter b) from incomplete data files is extended to the case of uncertain magnitude values. By the combination of seismicity and seismotectonic studies of the site, the acceleration with antiseptic probability may happen during the useful life of the structure is calculated with probabilistic and deterministic methods. Applying the results of performed seismicity and seismotectonic studies in the project and applying proper weights in used attenuation relationship, maximum horizontal and vertical acceleration for return periods of 50, 475, 950 and 2475 years are calculated. Horizontal peak ground acceleration on the seismic bedrock for 50, 475, 950 and 2475 return periods are 0.12g, 0.30g, 0.37g and 0.50, and Vertical peak ground acceleration on the seismic bedrock for 50, 475, 950 and 2475 return periods are 0.08g, 0.21g, 0.27g and 0.36g.

Keywords: peak ground acceleration, probabilistic and deterministic, seismic hazard assessment, seismicity parameters

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Authors: Christopher Spiewak, M. R. Islam, Mohammad Arifur Rahaman, Mohammad H. Rahman, Roger Smith, Maarouf Saad

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For those who have lost the ability to move their hand, going through repetitious motions with the assistance of a therapist is the main method of recovery. We have been developed a robotic assistive device to rehabilitate the hand motions in place of the traditional therapy. The developed assistive device (RAD-HR) is comprised of four degrees of freedom enabling basic movements, hand function, and assists in supporting the hand during rehabilitation. We used a nonlinear computed torque control technique to control the RAD-HR. The accuracy of the controller was evaluated in simulations (MATLAB/Simulink environment). To see the robustness of the controller external disturbance as modelling uncertainty (±10% of joint torques) were added in each joints.

Keywords: biorobotics, rehabilitation, robotic assistive device, exoskeleton, nonlinear control

Procedia PDF Downloads 459