Search results for: predictive risk

Authors: Muhammad Fiaz, Muhammad Saqlain, Abid Mahmood, S. M. Saqlan Naqvi, Rizwan Aziz Qazi, Ghazala Kaukab Raja

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Background: Metabolic Syndrome is a clustering of multiple risk factors including central obesity, hypertension, dyslipidemia and hyperglycemia. These risk phenotypes of metabolic syndrome (MetS) prevalent world-wide, Therefore we aimed to identify the frequency of risk phenotypes among metabolic syndrome subjects in local adult Pakistani population. Methods: Screening of subjects visiting out-patient department of medicine, Shaheed Zulfiqar Ali Bhutto Medical University, Islamabad was performed to assess the occurrence of risk phenotypes among MetS subjects in Pakistani population. The Metabolic Syndrome was defined based on International Diabetes Federation (IDF) criteria. Anthropometric and biochemical assay results were recorded. Data was analyzed using SPSS software (16.0). Results: Our results showed that dyslipidemia (31.50%) and hyperglycemia (30.50%) was most population specific risk phenotypes of MetS. The results showed the order of association of metabolic risk phenotypes to MetS as follows hyperglycemia>dyslipidemia>obesity >hypertension. Conclusion: The hyperglycemia and dyslipidemia were found be the major risk phenotypes among the MetS subjects and have greater chances of deceloping MetS among Pakistani Population.

Keywords: dyslipidemia, hypertention, metabolic syndrome, obesity

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Authors: Mohd Sabri Minhat, Nurul Adilla Mohd Subha

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The 1MWth PUSPATI TRIGA Reactor (RTP) in Malaysia Nuclear Agency has been operating more than 35 years. The existing core power control is using conventional controller known as Feedback Control Algorithm (FCA). It is technically challenging to keep the core power output always stable and operating within acceptable error bands for the safety demand of the RTP. Currently, the system could be considered unsatisfactory with power tracking performance, yet there is still significant room for improvement. Hence, a new design core power control is very important to improve the current performance in tracking and regulating reactor power by controlling the movement of control rods that suit the demand of highly sensitive of nuclear reactor power control. In this paper, the proposed Model Predictive Control (MPC) law was applied to control the core power. The model for core power control was based on mathematical models of the reactor core, MPC, and control rods selection algorithm. The mathematical models of the reactor core were based on point kinetics model, thermal hydraulic models, and reactivity models. The proposed MPC was presented in a transfer function model of the reactor core according to perturbations theory. The transfer function model-based predictive control (TFMPC) was developed to design the core power control with predictions based on a T-filter towards the real-time implementation of MPC on hardware. This paper introduces the sensitivity functions for TFMPC feedback loop to reduce the impact on the input actuation signal and demonstrates the behaviour of TFMPC in term of disturbance and noise rejections. The comparisons of both tracking and regulating performance between the conventional controller and TFMPC were made using MATLAB and analysed. In conclusion, the proposed TFMPC has satisfactory performance in tracking and regulating core power for controlling nuclear reactor with high reliability and safety.

Keywords: core power control, model predictive control, PUSPATI TRIGA reactor, TFMPC

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Authors: Narissara Nuthammachot, Dimitris Stratoulias

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Fire is one of the main causes of environmental and ecosystem change. Therefore, it is a challenging task for fire risk assessment fire potential mapping. The study area is Hua Sai district, Nakorn Sri Thammarat province, which covers in a part of peat swamp forest areas. 55 fire points in peat swamp areas were reported from 2012 to 2016. Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) and Geographic Information System (GIS) methods were selected for this study. The risk fire area map was arranged on these factors; elevation, slope, aspect, precipitation, distance from the river, distance from town, and land use. The results showed that the predicted fire risk areas are found to be in appreciable reliability with past fire events. The fire risk map can be used for the planning and management of fire areas in the future.

Keywords: analytic hierarchy process, fire risk assessment, geographic information system, peat swamp forest

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Authors: Lee P. Leon, Raymond Charles

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This paper presents a method of evaluating the effect of aggregate angularity on hot mix asphalt (HMA) properties and its relationship to the Permanent Deformation resistance. The research concluded that aggregate particle angularity had a significant effect on the Permanent Deformation performance, and also that with an increase in coarse aggregate angularity there was an increase in the resistance of mixes to Permanent Deformation. A comparison between the measured data and predictive data of permanent deformation predictive models showed the limits of existing prediction models. The numerical analysis described the permanent deformation zones and concluded that angularity has an effect of the onset of these zones. Prediction of permanent deformation help road agencies and by extension economists and engineers determine the best approach for maintenance, rehabilitation, and new construction works of the road infrastructure.

Keywords: aggregate angularity, asphalt concrete, permanent deformation, rutting prediction

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Authors: Peng Liu, Chyng Wen Tee, Xiaofei Xu

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This paper integrates machine learning forecasting techniques into the multi-period portfolio optimization framework, enabling dynamic asset allocation based on multiple future periods. We explore both theoretical foundations and practical applications, employing diverse machine learning models for return forecasting. This comprehensive guide demonstrates the superiority of multi-period optimization over single-period approaches, particularly in risk mitigation through strategic rebalancing and enhanced market trend forecasting. Our goal is to promote wider adoption of multi-period optimization, providing insights that can significantly enhance the decision-making capabilities of practitioners and researchers alike.

Keywords: multi-period portfolio optimization, look-ahead constrained optimization, machine learning, sequential decision making

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Authors: Sumaira Ashraf, Elisabete G.S. Félix, Zélia Serrasqueiro

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Traditional financial distress prediction models performed well to predict bankrupt and insolvent firms of the developed markets. Previous studies particularly focused on the predictability of financial distress, financial failure, and bankruptcy of firms. This paper contributes to the literature by extending the definition of financial distress with the inclusion of early warning signs related to quotation of face value, dividend/bonus declaration, annual general meeting, and listing fee. The study used five well-known distress prediction models to see if they have the ability to predict early warning signs of financial distress. Results showed that the predictive ability of the models varies over time and decreases specifically for the sample with early warning signs of financial distress. Furthermore, the study checked the differences in the predictive ability of the models with respect to the financial crisis. The results conclude that the predictive ability of the traditional financial distress prediction models decreases for the firms with early warning signs of financial distress and during the time of financial crisis. The study developed a new model comprising significant variables from the five models and one new variable earning response. This new model outperforms the old distress prediction models before, during and after the financial crisis. Thus, it can be used by researchers, organizations and all other concerned parties to indicate early warning signs for the emerging markets.

Keywords: financial distress, emerging market, prediction models, Z-Score, logit analysis, probit model

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Authors: M. Ndaw, G. Mendy, S. Ouya

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Information system risk management helps to reduce or eliminate risk by implementing appropriate controls. In this paper, we propose a quantification model of controls impact on information system risks by automatizing the residual criticality estimation step of FMECA which is based on a inductive reasoning. For this, we defined three equations based on type and maturity of controls. For testing, the values obtained with the model were compared to estimated values given by interlocutors during different working sessions and the result is satisfactory. This model allows an optimal assessment of controls maturity and facilitates risk analysis of information system.

Keywords: information system, risk, control, FMECA method

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Authors: David Nantes, George Gilbert

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There are a lot of risks that might crop up as a tunneling project develops, and it's crucial to be aware of them. Due to the unexpected nature of tunneling projects and the interconnectedness of risk occurrences, the risk assessment approach presents a significant challenge. The purpose of this study is to provide a hybrid FDEMATEL-ANP model to help prioritize risks during tunnel construction projects. The ambiguity in expert judgments and the relative severity of interdependencies across risk occurrences are both taken into consideration by this model, thanks to the Fuzzy Decision-Making Trial and Evaluation Laboratory (FDEMATEL). The Analytic Network Process (ANP) method is used to rank priorities and assess project risks. The authors provide a case study of a subway tunneling construction project to back up the validity of their methodology. The results showed that the proposed method successfully isolated key risk factors and elucidated their interplay in the case study. The proposed method has the potential to become a helpful resource for evaluating dangers associated with tunnel construction projects.

Keywords: risk, prioritization, FDEMATEL, ANP, tunneling construction projects

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Authors: Jie Liu, Wei Wei, Chun-Ping Chang

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Using a sample of 110 countries over the period 1984-2013, this paper examines the impacts of country risks on choosing a specific exchange rate regime (first by utilizing the Levy-Yeyati and Sturzenegger de facto classification and then robusting it by the IMF de jure measurement) relative to other regimes via the panel multinomial logit approach. Empirical findings are as follows. First, in the full samples case we provide evidence that government is more likely to implement a flexible regime, but less likely to adopt a fixed regime, under a low level of composite and financial risk. Second, we find that Eurozone countries are more likely to choose a fixed exchange rate regime with a decrease in the level of country risk and favor a flexible regime in response to a shock from an increase of risk, which is opposite to non-Eurozone countries. Third, we note that high-risk countries are more likely to choose a fixed regime with a low level of composite and political risk in the government, but do not adjust the exchange rate regime as a shock absorber when facing economic and financial risks. It is interesting to see that those countries with relatively low risk display almost opposite results versus high-risk economies. Overall, we believe that it is critically important to account for political economy variables in a government’s exchange rate policy decisions, especially for country risks. All results are robust to the panel ordered probit model.

Keywords: country risk, political economy, exchange rate regimes, shock absorber

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Authors: Jadwiga Królikowska, Andrzej Królikowski, Jarosław Bajer

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The work delineates the threats of maladjustment of the capacity of rain canals, designed and built in the early 20th century, in connection to heavy rainfall, especially in summer. This is the cause of the so called 'urban floods.' It directly relates to fierce raise of paving in the cities. Resolving this problem requires a change in philosophy of draining the rainfall by wider use of retention, infiltration and usage of rainwater. In systemic approach to managing the safety of urban drainage systems the risk, which is directly connected to safety failures, has been accepted as a measure. The risk level defines the probability of occurrence of losses greater than the ones forecast for a given time frame. The procedure of risk modelling, enabling its numeric analysis by using appropriate weights, is a significant issue in this paper.

Keywords: risk management, drainage system, urban areas, urban floods

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Authors: Kitty Kioskli, Nineta Polemi

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Evaluating the levels of cyber-security risks within an enterprise is most important in protecting its information system, services and all its digital assets against security incidents (e.g. accidents, malicious acts, massive cyber-attacks). The existing risk assessment methodologies (e.g. eBIOS, OCTAVE, CRAMM, NIST-800) adopt a technical approach considering as attack factors only the capability, intention and target of the attacker, and not paying attention to the attacker’s psychological profile and personality traits. In this paper, a socio-technical approach is proposed in cyber risk assessment, in order to achieve more realistic risk estimates by considering the personality traits of the attackers. In particular, based upon principles from investigative psychology and behavioural science, a multi-dimensional, extended, quantifiable model for an attacker’s profile is developed, which becomes an additional factor in the cyber risk level calculation.

Keywords: attacker, behavioural models, cyber risk assessment, cybersecurity, human factors, investigative psychology, ISO27001, ISO27005

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Authors: Jayant Kumar, Aarcha Jayachandran Sasikala, Barry Adrian Shepherd

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Public Distribution System is a flagship welfare programme of the Government of India with both historical and political significance. Targeted at lower sections of society,it is one of the largest supply chain networks in the world. There has been several studies by academics and planning commission about the effectiveness of the system. Our study focuses on applying predictive analytics to aid the central body to keep track of the problem of breach of service level agreement between the two echelons of food supply chain. Each shop breach is leading to a potential additional inventory carrying cost. Thus, through this study, we aim to show that aided with such analytics, the network can be made more cost effective. The methods we illustrate in this study are applicable to other commercial supply chains as well.

Keywords: PDS, analytics, cost effectiveness, Karnataka, inventory cost, service level JEL classification: C53

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Authors: Jadwiga Królikowska, Andrzej Królikowski, Jarosław Bajer

Abstract:

The work delineates the threats of maladjustment of the capacity of rain canals, designed and built in the early 20th century, in connection to heavy rainfall, especially in summer. This is the cause of the so called 'urban floods.' It directly relates to fierce raise of paving in the cities. Resolving this problem requires a change in philosophy of draining the rainfall by wider use of retention, infiltration and usage of rainwater. In systemic approach to managing the safety of urban drainage systems the risk, which is directly connected to safety failures, has been accepted as a measure. The risk level defines the probability of occurrence of losses grater than the ones forecast for a given time frame. The procedure of risk modelling, enabling its numeric analysis by using appropriate weights, is a significant issue in this paper.

Keywords: drainage system, urban areas, risk measurement, systemic approach

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Authors: N. W. Paul, M. Banerjee

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Discussing the nexus between global health policy and local practices, this article addresses the recent Ebola outbreak as a role model for narrative co-constructions of epidemic risk. We will demonstrate in how far a theory-driven and methodologically rooted analysis of narrativity can help to improve mechanisms of prevention and intervention whenever epidemic risk needs to be addressed locally in order to contribute to global health. Analyzing the narrative transformation of Ebola, we will also address issues of transcultural problem-solving and of normative questions at stake. In this regard, we seek to contribute to a better understanding of a key question of global health and justice as well as to the underlying ethical questions. By highlighting and analyzing the functions of narratives, this paper provides a translational approach to refine our practices by which we address epidemic risk, be it on the national, the transnational or the global scale.

Keywords: ebola, epidemic risk, medical ethics, medical humanities

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Authors: Pouriya Darabiyan, Hadis Nazari, Kourosh Zarea, Saeed Ghanbari, Zeinab Raiesifar, Morteza Khafaie, Hanna Tuvesson

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Introduction Since the beginning of mobile phone addiction, alexithymia, depression, anxiety and stress have been stated as risk factors for Internet addiction, so this study was conducted with the aim of investigating the relationship between Alexithymia and Mobile phone addiction along with the mediating role of anxiety, stress and depression. Materials and methods In this descriptive-analytical and cross-sectional study in 2022, 412 students School of Nursing & Midwifery of Ahvaz Jundishapur University of Medical Sciences were included in the study using available sampling method. Data collection tools were: Demographic Information Questionnaire, Toronto Alexithymia Scale (TAS-20), Depression, Anxiety, Stress Scale (DASS-21) and Mobile Phone Addiction Index (MPAI). Frequency, Pearson correlation coefficient test and linear regression were used to describe and analyze the data. Also, structural equation models and path analysis method were used to investigate the direct and indirect effects as well as the total effect of each dimension of Alexithymia on Mobile phone addiction with the mediating role of stress, depression and anxiety. Statistical analysis was done by SPSS version 22 and Amos version 16 software. Results Alexithymia was a predictive factor for mobile phone addiction. Also, Alexithymia had a positive and significant effect on depression, anxiety and stress. Depression, anxiety and stress had a positive and significant effect on mobile phone addiction. Depression, anxiety and stress variables played the role of a relative mediating variable between Alexithymia and mobile phone addiction. Alexithymia through depression, anxiety and stress also has an indirect effect on Internet addiction. Conclusion Alexithymia is a predictive factor for mobile phone addiction; And the variables of depression, anxiety and stress play the role of a relative mediating variable between Alexithymia and mobile phone addiction.

Keywords: alexithymia, mobile phone, depression, anxiety, stress

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Authors: Zhidong Zhang, Zhi-Chao Zhang, Georgianna Duarte

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The social problems of early adolescents in Northeast China were examined with the instrument of Achenbach System of Empirically Based Assessment (ASEBA). In this study, the data consisted of 2532 early adolescents. The relevant variables such as sports activities, hobbies, chores and the number of close friends, as independent variables have been included in this study. The stratified sampling method was used to collect data from 2532 participants. The analysis results indicated that sports activities, hobbies, chores and the number of close friends, as predictors can be used in a predictive model, which significantly predict the social problem T-score.

Keywords: social problems, ASEBA, early adolescents, predictive Model

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Authors: Saleh Alzahrani, Halim Boussabaine

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Many of Public Private Partnership (PPP) are developed based on a public project is to be awarded to a private party within a one contractual framework. PPP project risks typically include the development and construction of a new asset as well as its operation. Certainly the most severe consequences of risks through the construction period are price and time overruns. These events are among the most generally used situation in value for money analysis risks. The sources of risk change during the time in PPP project. In traditional procurement, the public sector usually has to cover all prices suffering from these risks. At least there is plenty to suggest that price suffering is a norm in some of the projects that are delivered under traditional procurement. This paper will find the impact of exogenous risk factors into actual construction price into PPP projects. The paper will present a brief literature review on PPP risk pricing strategies and then using system dynamics (SD) to analyses of the risks associated with the estimated project price. Based on the finding from these analyses a risk pricing association model is presented and discussed. The paper concludes with thoughts for future research.

Keywords: public private partnership (PPP), risk, risk pricing, system dynamics (SD)

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Authors: Brennan Lodge

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Amidst a complex regulatory landscape, Retrieval Augmented Generation (RAG) emerges as a transformative tool for Governance Risk and Compliance (GRC) officers. This paper details the application of RAG in synthesizing Large Language Models (LLMs) with external knowledge bases, offering GRC professionals an advanced means to adapt to rapid changes in compliance requirements. While the development for standalone LLM’s (Large Language Models) is exciting, such models do have their downsides. LLM’s cannot easily expand or revise their memory, and they can’t straightforwardly provide insight into their predictions, and may produce “hallucinations.” Leveraging a pre-trained seq2seq transformer and a dense vector index of domain-specific data, this approach integrates real-time data retrieval into the generative process, enabling gap analysis and the dynamic generation of compliance and risk management content. We delve into the mechanics of RAG, focusing on its dual structure that pairs parametric knowledge contained within the transformer model with non-parametric data extracted from an updatable corpus. This hybrid model enhances decision-making through context-rich insights, drawing from the most current and relevant information, thereby enabling GRC officers to maintain a proactive compliance stance. Our methodology aligns with the latest advances in neural network fine-tuning, providing a granular, token-level application of retrieved information to inform and generate compliance narratives. By employing RAG, we exhibit a scalable solution that can adapt to novel regulatory challenges and cybersecurity threats, offering GRC officers a robust, predictive tool that augments their expertise. The granular application of RAG’s dual structure not only improves compliance and risk management protocols but also informs the development of compliance narratives with pinpoint accuracy. It underscores AI’s emerging role in strategic risk mitigation and proactive policy formation, positioning GRC officers to anticipate and navigate the complexities of regulatory evolution confidently.

Keywords: cybersecurity, gen AI, retrieval augmented generation, cybersecurity defense strategies

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Authors: Magid Maatallah

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The problem is, investment management in modern conditions boils down to risk management which is very underdeveloped in Islamic financial theory and practice. Add to this the fact that, in Islamic perception, this is one of the areas of conventional finance in need of drastic reforms. This need was recently underlined by the story of Long Term Capital Management (LTCM ), ( told by Roger Lowenstein in his book, When Genius Failed, Random House, 2000 ). So we face a double challenge, to develop Islamic techniques of risk management and to see that these new techniques are free from the ills with which conventional methods are suffering. This is different from the challenge faced in the middle of twentieth century, to develop a method of financial intermediation free of interest.Risk was always there, especially in business. But industrialization brought risks unknown in trade and agriculture. Industrial production often involves long periods of time .The longer the period of production the more the uncertainty. The scope of the market has expanded to cover the whole world, introducing new kinds of risk. More than a thousand years ago, when Islamic laws were being written, the nature and scope of risk and uncertainty was different. However, something can still be learnt which, in combination with the modern experience, should enable us to realize the Shariah objectives of justice, fairness and efficiency.

Keywords: financial markets, Islamic framework, risk management, investment

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Authors: Irtaza M. Syed, Kaamran Raahemifar

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This paper presents a model predictive control (MPC) of a utility interactive (UI) single phase inverter (SPI) for a photovoltaic (PV) system at residential/distribution level. The proposed model uses single-phase phase locked loop (PLL) to synchronize SPI with the grid and performs MPC control in a dq reference frame. SPI model consists of boost converter (BC), maximum power point tracking (MPPT) control, and a full bridge (FB) voltage source inverter (VSI). No PI regulators to tune and carrier and modulating waves are required to produce switching sequence. Instead, the operational model of VSI is used to synthesize sinusoidal current and track the reference. Model is validated using a three kW PV system at the input of UI-SPI in Matlab/Simulink. Implementation and results demonstrate simplicity and accuracy, as well as reliability of the model.

Keywords: phase locked loop, voltage source inverter, single phase inverter, model predictive control, Matlab/Simulink

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Authors: Hotlan Siagian, Han Tae Hee

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This study aims to examine the effect of supplier trust and top management involvement on the supply chain risk management through buyer-supplier relationship. The population of the research is 44 Korean companies domiciled in East and Central Java of Indonesia. The respondent consists of a top management level from each company. Data collection used a questionnaire designed with five-item Likert scale. Collected data were analyzed using structural equation modeling (SEM) technique with SmartPLS software version 3.0 to examine the hypotheses. The result revealed that supplier trust has an effect on supply chain risk management, top management involvement affects supply chain risk management, supplier trust influences buyer-supplier relationship, top management involvement affects the buyer-supplier relationship, and buyer-supplier relationship affects supply chain risk management. The last finding is that buyer-supplier relationship empirically mediates the effect of supplier trust and top management involvement.

Keywords: buyer supplier relationship, supplier trust, supply chain risk management, top management involvement

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Authors: Haolin Li, Eric Bair, Jane Monaco, Quefeng Li

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The temporomandibular disorder (TMD) is a series of musculoskeletal disorders ranging from jaw pain to chronic debilitating pain, and the risk factors for the onset and maintenance of TMD are still unclear. Prior researches have shown that the potential risk factors for chronic TMD are related to psychosocial factors, autonomic functions, and pain sensitivity. Using data from the Orofacial Pain: Prospective Evaluation and Risk Assessment (OPPERA) study’s baseline case-control study, we examine whether the risk factors identified by prior researches are still statistically significant after taking all of the risk measures into account in one single model, and we also compare the relative influences of the risk factors in three different perspectives (psychosocial factors, autonomic functions, and pain sensitivity) on the chronic TMD. The statistical analysis is conducted by using ridge logistic regression and bootstrapping, in which the performance of the algorithms has been assessed using extensive simulation studies. The results support most of the findings of prior researches that there are many psychosocial and pain sensitivity measures that have significant associations with chronic TMD. However, it is surprising that most of the risk factors of autonomic functions have not presented significant associations with chronic TMD, as described by a prior research.

Keywords: autonomic function, OPPERA study, pain sensitivity, psychosocial measures, temporomandibular disorder

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Authors: Ayoub Moufid, Najib Bennis, Soumia El Hani

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The objective of greenhouse climate control is to improve the culture development and to minimize the production costs. A greenhouse is an open system to external environment and the challenge is to regulate the internal climate despite the strong meteorological disturbances. The internal state of greenhouse considered in this work is defined by too relevant and coupled variables, namely inside temperature and hygrometry. These two variables are chosen to describe the internal state of greenhouses due to their importance in the development of plants and their sensitivity to external climatic conditions, sources of weather disturbances. A multivariable model is proposed and validated by considering a greenhouse as black-box system and the least square method is applied to parameters identification basing on collected experimental measures. To regulate the internal climate, we propose a Model Predictive Control (MPC) scheme. This one considers the measured meteorological disturbances and the physical and operational constraints on the control and state variables. A successful feasibility study of the proposed controller is presented, and simulation results show good performances despite the high interaction between internal and external variables and the strong external meteorological disturbances. The inside temperature and hygrometry are tracking nearly the desired trajectories. A comparison study with an On/Off control applied to the same greenhouse confirms the efficiency of the MPC approach to inside climate control.

Keywords: climate control, constraints, identification, greenhouse, model predictive control, optimization

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Authors: Ruchi Agarwal

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In today’s world, companies are operating in dynamic, uncertain and ambiguous business environments. Globally, more companies are failing due to Environmental, Social and Governance (ESG) factors than ever. Corporate governance and risk management are intertwined in nature. For decades, corporate governance and risk management have been influenced by internal and external factors. Three schools of thought have influenced risk governance for decades: Agency theory, Contingency theory, and Institutional theory. Agency theory argues that agents have interests conflicting with principal interests and the information problem. Contingency theory suggests that risk management adoption is influenced by internal and external factors, while Institutional theory suggests that organizations legitimize risk management with regulators, competitors, and professional bodies. The conflicting objectives of theories have created problems for executives in organizations in the adoption of Risk Governance. So far, there are many studies that discussed risk culture and the role of actors in risk governance, but there are rare studies discussing the role of risk culture in the adoption of risk governance from a leadership style perspective. This study explores the adoption of risk governance in two contrasting industries, such as the Insurance and energy business, to understand whether risk governance is influenced by internal/external factors or whether risk culture is influenced by leaders. We draw empirical evidence by comparing the cases of an Indian insurance company and a renewable energy-based firm in India. We interviewed more than 20 senior executives of companies and collected annual reports, risk management policies, and more than 10 PPTs and other reports from 2017 to 2024. We visited the company for follow-up questions several times. The findings of my research revealed that both companies have used risk governance for strategic renewal of the company. Insurance companies use a transactional leadership style based on performance and reward for improving risk, while energy companies use rather symbolic management to make debt restructuring meaningful for stakeholders. Overall, both companies turned from loss-making to profitable ones in a few years. This comparative study highlights the role of different leadership styles in the adoption of risk governance. The study is also distinct as previous research rarely studied risk governance in two contrasting industries in reference to leadership styles.

Keywords: leadership style, corporate governance, risk management, risk culture, strategic renewal

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Authors: Samuel Capintero, Ole H. Petersen

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This paper examines the utilization of public-private partnerships for the building and operation of wastewater treatment plants. Our research focuses on risk allocation in this kind of projects. Our analysis builds on more than hundred wastewater treatment plants built and operated through PPP projects in Aragon (Spain). The paper illustrates the consequences of an inadequate management of construction risk and an unsuitable transfer of demand risk in wastewater treatment plants. It also shows that the involvement of many public bodies at local, regional and national level further increases the complexity of this kind of projects and make time delays more likely.

Keywords: wastewater, treatment plants, PPP, construction

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Authors: Jayaletchumi T. Sambantha Moorthy, Suhaimi bin Ibrahim, Mohd Naz’ri Mahrin

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Most quality models have defined usability as a significant factor that leads to improving product acceptability, increasing user satisfaction, improving product reliability, and also financially benefiting companies. Usability is also the best factor that acts as a balance for both the technical and human aspects of a software product, which is an important aspect in defining quality during software development process. A usability risk can be defined as a potential usability risk factor that a chosen action or activity may lead to a possible loss or an undesirable outcome. This could impact the usability of a software product thereby contributing to negative user experiences and causing a possible software product failure. Hence, it is important to mitigate and reduce usability risks in the software development process itself. By managing possible involved usability risks in software development process, failure of software product could be reduced. Therefore, this research uses the Delphi method to identify mitigation plans to reduce potential usability risks. The Delphi method is conducted with seven experts from the field of risk management and software development.

Keywords: usability, usability risk, risk management, risk mitigation, delphi study

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Authors: Iqbal Pramukti, Mamat Lukman, Hasniatisari Harun, Kusman Ibrahim

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Introduction: People living with HIV had a higher risk of osteoporotic fracture than the general population. The purpose of this study was to predict the 10-year risk of fracture among people living with HIV (PLWH) using FRAX™ and to identify characteristics related to the fracture risk. Methodology: This study consisted of 75 subjects. The ten-year probability of major osteoporotic fractures (MOF) and hip fractures was assessed using the FRAX™ algorithm. A cross-tabulation was used to identify the participant’s characteristics related to fracture risk. Results: The overall mean 10-year probability of fracture was 2.4% (1.7) for MOF and 0.4% (0.3) for hip fractures. For MOF score, participants with parents’ hip fracture history, smoking behavior and glucocorticoid use showed a higher MOF score than those who were not (3.1 vs. 2.5; 4.6 vs 2.5; and 3.4 vs 2.5, respectively). For HF score, participants with parents’ hip fracture history, smoking behavior and glucocorticoid use also showed a higher HF score than those who were not (0.5 vs. 0.3; 0.8 vs. 0.3; and 0.5 vs. 0.3, respectively). Conclusions: The 10-year risk of fracture was higher among PLWH with several factors, including the parent’s hip. Fracture history, smoking behavior and glucocorticoid used. Further analysis on determining factors using multivariate regression analysis with a larger sample size is required to confirm the factors associated with the high fracture risk.

Keywords: HIV, PLWH, osteoporotic fractures, hip fractures, 10-year risk of fracture, FRAX

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Authors: Tania Vasquez Mata, Luis A. Herrera, Cristian Arriaga Canon

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Background: Locally advanced breast cancer of the luminal B phenotype, poses challenges due to its variable response to neoadjuvant chemotherapy. A predictive biomarker is needed to identify patients who will not respond to treatment, allowing for alternative therapies. This study aims to validate the use of the lncRNA GATA3-AS1, as a predictive biomarker using RNA in situ hybridization. Research aim: The aim of this study is to determine if GATA3-AS1 can serve as a biomarker for resistance to neoadjuvant chemotherapy in patients with locally advanced luminal B breast cancer. Methodology: The study utilizes RNA in situ hybridization with predesigned probes for GATA3-AS1 on Formalin-Fixed Paraffin-Embedded tissue sections. The samples underwent pretreatment and protease treatment to enable probe penetration. Chromogenic detection and signal evaluation were performed using specific criteria. Findings: Patients who did not respond to neoadjuvant chemotherapy showed a 3+ score for GATA3-AS1, while those who had a complete response had a 1+ score. Theoretical importance: This study demonstrates the potential clinical utility of GATA3-AS1 as a biomarker for resistance to neoadjuvant chemotherapy. Identifying non-responders early on can help avoid unnecessary treatment and explore alternative therapy options. Data collection and analysis procedures: Tissue samples from patients with locally advanced luminal B breast cancer were collected and processed using RNA in situ hybridization. Signal evaluation was conducted under a microscope, and scoring was based on specific criteria. Questions addressed: Can GATA3-AS1 serve as a predictive biomarker for neoadjuvant chemotherapy response in locally advanced luminal B breast cancer? Conclusion: The lncRNA GATA3-AS1 can be used as a biomarker for resistance to neoadjuvant chemotherapy in patients with locally advanced luminal B breast cancer. Its identification through RNA in situ hybridization of tissue obtained from the initial biopsy can aid in treatment decision-making.

Keywords: biomarkers, breast neoplasms, genetics, neoadjuvant therapy, tumor

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Authors: Lucia Salvioni, Pietro Giorgio Lovaglio, Valerio Leoni, Miriam Colombo, Luisa Fiandra

Abstract:

The involvement of plasmatic surfactant protein-D (SP-D) in pulmonary diseases has been long investigated, and over the last two years, more interest has been directed to determine its role as a marker of COVID-19. In this direction, several studies aimed to correlate pulmonary surfactant proteins with the clinical manifestations of the virus indicated SP-D as a prognostic biomarker of COVID-19 pneumonia severity. The present work has performed a retrospective study on a relatively large cohort of patients of Hospital Pio XI of Desio (Lombardia, Italy) with the aim to assess differences in the hematic SP-D concentrations among COVID-19 patients and healthy donors and the role of SP-D as a prognostic marker of severity and/or of mortality risk. The obtained results showed a significant difference in the mean of log SP-D levels between COVID-19 patients and healthy donors, so as between dead and survived patients. SP-D values were significantly higher for both hospitalized COVID-19 and dead patients, with threshold values of 150 and 250 ng/mL, respectively. SP-D levels at admission and increasing differences among follow-up and admission values resulted in the strongest significant risk factors of mortality. Therefore, this study demonstrated the role of SP-D as a predictive marker of SARS-CoV-2 infection and its outcome. A significant correlation of SP-D with patient mortality indicated that it is also a prognostic factor in terms of mortality, and its early detection should be considered to design adequate preventive treatments for COVID-19 patients.

Keywords: SARS-CoV-2 infection, COVID-19, surfactant protein-D (SP-D), mortality, biomarker

Procedia PDF Downloads 61

Authors: Agajie Likie Bogale, Tilahun Teklehaymanot, Getnet Mitike Kassie, Girmay Medhin, Jemal Haidar Ali, Nega Berhe Belay

Abstract:

Objectives: The aim of this study is to evaluate the performance of visual inspection using acetic acid compared with HPV DNA testing among women living with HIV in Ethiopia. Methods: Acomparative cross-sectional study was conducted to address the aforementioned objective. Data were collected from January to October 2021 to compare the performance of these two screening modalities. Trained clinicians collected cervical specimens and immediately applied acetic acid for visual inspection. The HPV DNA testing was done using Abbott m2000rt/SP by trained laboratory professionals in accredited laboratories. A total of 578 HIV positive women with age 25-49 years were included. Results: Test positivity was 8.9% using VIA and 23.3% using HPV DNA test. The sensitivity and specificity of the VIA test were 19.2% and 95.1%, respectively, while the positive and negative predictive values of the VIA test were 54.4% and 79.4%, respectively. The strength of agreement between the two screening methods was poor (k=0.184), and the area under the curve was 0.572. The burden of genetic distribution of high risk HPV16 was 3.8%, and mixed HPV16& other HR HPV was 1.9%. Other high risk HPV types were predominant in this study (15.7%). Conclusion: The high positivity result using HPV DNA testing compared with VIA, and low sensitivity of VIA are indicating that the implementation of HPV DNA testing as the primary screening strategy is likely to reduce cervical cancer cases and deaths of women in the country.

Keywords: cervical cancer screening, HPV DNA, VIA, Ethiopia

Procedia PDF Downloads 113