Search results for: peak demand

Authors: Siddhant Sahu, P. James Daniel Paul

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Technical analysis comprised by various technical indicators is a holistic way of representing price movement of stocks in the market. Various forms of indicators have evolved from the primitive ones in the past decades. There have been many attempts to introduce volume as a major determinant to determine strong patterns in market forecasting. The law of demand defines the relationship between the volume and price. Most of the traders are familiar with the volume game. Including the time dimension to the law of demand provides a different visualization to the theory. While attempting the same, it was found that there are different thresholds in the market for different companies. These thresholds have a significant influence on the price. This article is an attempt in determining the thresholds for companies using the three dimensional graphs for optimizing the portfolios. It also emphasizes on the magnitude of importance of volumes as a key factor for determining of predicting strong price movements, bullish and bearish markets. It uses a comprehensive data set of major companies which form a major chunk of the Indian automotive sector and are thus used as an illustration.

Keywords: technical analysis, expert system, law of demand, stocks, portfolio analysis, Indian automotive sector

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Authors: Zeliha Sayar

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Central banks all over the world appear to be focusing first and foremost on retail central bank digital currency CBDC), i.e., digital cash/money. This approach is predicated on the belief that the use of cash has decreased, owing primarily to technological advancements and pandemic restrictions, and that a suitable foundation for the transition to a cashless society has been revealed. This study aims to contribute to the debate over whether digital money/CBDC can be a substitute or supplement to physical cash by examining the potential effects on cash demand. For this reason, this paper compares two emerging countries, Turkey, and Thailand, to demystify the impact of e-payment and COVID-19 restrictions on cash demand by employing fully modified ordinary least squares (FMOLS), dynamic ordinary least squares (DOLS), and the canonical cointegrating regression (CCR). The currency in circulation in two emerging countries, Turkey and Thailand, was examined in order to estimate the elasticity of different types of retail payments. The results demonstrate that real internet and mobile, cart, contactless payment, and e-money are long-term determinants of real cash demand in these two developing countries. Furthermore, with the exception of contactless payments in Turkey, there is a positive relationship between the currency in circulation and the various types of retail payments. According to findings, COVID-19 restrictions encourage the demand for cash, resulting in cash hoarding.

Keywords: CCR, DOLS, e-money, FMOLS, real cash

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Authors: Anatoliy Kharkhurin

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Modifications that the prefix ‘trans-‘ refers to start within a person. This presentation focuses on the transpersonal that goes beyond the individual (trans-personal) to encompass wider aspects of humanities, specifically peak experience as a culminating stage of the creative act. It proposes a model according to which the peak experience results from a harmonious vibration of four spheres, which transcend an individual’s capacities and bring one to a qualitatively different level of experience. Each sphere represents an aspect of creative activity: superconscious, intellectual, emotive and active. Each sphere corresponds to one of four creative functions: authenticity, novelty, aesthetics, and utility, respectively. The creative act starts in the superconscious sphere: the supreme pleasure of Creation is reflected in creative pleasure, which is realized in creative will. These three instances serve as a source of force axes, which penetrate other spheres, and in place of infiltration establish restrictive, expansive, and integrative principles, respectively; the latter balances the other two and ensures a harmonious vibration within a sphere. This Hegelian-like triad is realized within each sphere in the form of creative capacities. The intellectual sphere nurtures capacities to invent and to elaborate, which are integrated by capacity to conceptualize. The emotive sphere nurtures satiation and restrictive capacities integrated by capacity to balance. The active sphere nurtures goal orientation and stabilization capacities integrated by capacity for self-expression. All four spheres vibrate within each other – the superconscious sphere being in the core of the structure followed by intellectual, emotive, and active spheres, respectively – thereby reflecting the path of creative production. If the spheres vibrate in-phase, their amplitudes amplify the creative energy; if in antiphase – the amplitudes reduce the creative energy. Thus, creative act is perceived as continuum with perfectly harmonious vibration within and between the spheres on one side and perfectly disharmonious vibration on the other.

Keywords: creativity, model, transpersonal, peak experience

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Authors: L. Hamra, J. F. Demonceau, V. Denoël

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The aim of this paper is to study a beam extracted from a frame and subjected to blast loading. The demand of ductility depends on six dimensionless parameters: two related to the blast loading, two referring to the bending behavior of the beam and two corresponding to the dynamic behavior of the rest of the structure. We develop a full analytical procedure that provides the ductility demand as a function of these six dimensionless parameters.

Keywords: analytical procedure, blast loading, membrane force, P-I diagram

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Authors: Thawtar Htun, Kim N. Irvine, Ranjna Jindal

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This study aimed at modelling the wastewater collection system in Cha-Am Municipality using PCSWMM to investigate the quantity of combined sewage delivered to the aeration lagoon treatment system (ALTS). Cha-Am is a small sea resort town in Petchaburi Province located about 175 km southwest of Bangkok and is facing increasing development so it is important to understand current system performance and plan for future build out. PCSWMM was calibrated using observed ALTS inflow data for the period 15 June to 20 July 2015. The model was validated using observed ALTS inflow data for the periods 19 July to 20 October 2015 and 1 October to 31 December 2015, respectively. The 1:1 lines between modeled and observed peak flow and event volume for the calibration events qualitatively showed good correspondence. The r2 values between modeled and observed peak flow (99%) and event volume (89%) also were strong.

Keywords: combined sewer system, mathematical modelling, PCSWMM, wastewater collection system

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Authors: Avinash Kharel

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Background: - Linear sprint training is one possible approach to developing sprint performance, a crucial skill to focus on in soccer. Numerous methods, including various on-field training options, can be employed to attain this goal. However, the effect of In-season linear sprint training on sprint performance and related kinetics changes are unknown in a professional setting. The study aimed to investigate the effect of in-season linear sprint training on the sprint kinematics of amateur soccer players. Methods: - After familiarization, a 4-week training protocol was completed with sprint performance and Force Velocity (FV) profiles was compared before and after the training. Eighteen amateur soccer male players (Age 22 ± 2 years: Height: 178 ± 7cm; body-mass: 74 ± 8 Kg, 30-m split-time: 4.398 ± s) participated in the study. Sprint kinematics variables, including maximum Sprint Velocity (V0), Theoretical Maximum Force (F0), Maximum Force Output per kilogram of body weight (N/KG), Maximum Velocity (V(0)), Maximum Power Output (P MAX (W)), Ratio of Force to Velocity (FV), and Ratio of Force to Velocity at Peak power were measured. Results: - Results showed significant improvements in Maximum Sprint Velocity (p<0.01, ES=0.89), Theoretical Maximum Force (p<0.05, ES=0.50), Maximum Force Output per kilogram of body weight (p<0.05, ES=0.42), Maximum Power Output (p<0.05, ES=0.52), and Ratio of Force to Velocity at Peak Power (RF PEAK) (p<0.05, ES=0.44) post-training. There were no significant changes in the ratio of Force to Velocity (FV) and Maximum Velocity V (0) post-training (p>0.05). Conclusion: - These findings suggest that In-season linear sprint training can effectively improve certain sprint kinematics variables in amateur soccer players. Coaches and players should consider incorporating linear sprint training into their in-season training programs to improve sprint performance.

Keywords: sprint performance, training intervention, soccer, kinematics

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Authors: David C. Ni

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Contemporary models for N-body systems are based on temporal, two-body, and mass point representation of Newtonian mechanics. Other mainstream models include 2D and 3D Ising models based on local neighborhood the lattice structures. In Quantum mechanics, the theories of collective modes are for superconductivity and for the long-range quantum entanglement. However, these models are still mainly for the specific phenomena with a set of designated parameters. We are therefore motivated to develop a new construction directly from the complex-variable N-body systems based on the extended Blaschke functions (EBF), which represent a non-temporal and nonlinear extension of Lorentz transformation on the complex plane – the normalized momentum spaces. A point on the complex plane represents a normalized state of particle momentums observed from a reference frame in the theory of special relativity. There are only two key parameters, normalized momentum and nonlinearity for modelling. An algorithm similar to Jenkins-Traub method is adopted for solving EBF iteratively. Through iteration, the solution sets show a form of σ + i [-t, t], where σ and t are the real numbers, and the [-t, t] shows various distributions, such as 1-peak, 2-peak, and 3-peak etc. distributions and some of them are analog to the canonical distributions. The results of the numerical analysis demonstrate continuum-to-discreteness transitions, evolutional invariance of distributions, phase transitions with conjugate symmetry, etc., which manifest the construction as a potential candidate for the unification of statistics. We hereby classify the observed distributions on the finite convergent domains. Continuous and discrete distributions both exist and are predictable for given partitions in different regions of parameter-pair. We further compare these distributions with canonical distributions and address the impacts on the existing applications.

Keywords: blaschke, lorentz transformation, complex variables, continuous, discrete, canonical, classification

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Authors: R. Ramesh, K. K. Shivaraman

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The main aim of this paper is to handle the energy requirement in an efficient manner by merging the advanced digital communication and control technologies for smart grid applications. In order to reduce user home load during peak load hours, utility applies several incentives such as real-time pricing, time of use, demand response for residential customer through smart meter. However, this method provides inconvenience in the sense that user needs to respond manually to prices that vary in real time. To overcome these inconvenience, this paper proposes a convolutional neural network (CNN) with k-means clustering machine learning model which have ability to forecast energy requirement in short term, i.e., hour of the day or day of the week. By integrating our proposed technique with home energy management based on Bluetooth low energy provides predicted value to user for scheduling appliance in advanced. This paper describes detail about CNN configuration and k-means clustering algorithm for short-term energy forecasting.

Keywords: convolutional neural network, fuzzy logic, k-means clustering approach, smart home energy management

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Authors: Andrey A. Chernousov, Ben Y. B. Chan

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The use of the low-cost paraffinic phase change material can be rather effective in smart building envelopes in the South China region. Particular attention has to be paid to the PCM optimization as an exploitation conditions and the envelope insulation changes its thermal characteristics. The studied smart building envelope consists of a reinforced aluminum exterior, polymeric insulation foam, phase change material and reinforced interior gypsum board. A prototype sample was tested to validate the numerical scheme using EnergryPlus software. Three scenarios of insulation thermal resistance loss (ΔR/R = 0%, 25%, 50%) were compared with the different PCM thicknesses (tP=0, 1, 2.5, 5 mm). The comparisons were carried out for a west facing enveloped office building (50 storey). PCM optimization was applied to find the maximum efficiency for the different ΔR/R cases. It was found, during the optimization, that the PCM is an important smart component, lowering the peak energy demand up to 2.7 times. The results are not influenced by the insulation aging in terms of ΔR/R during long-term exploitation. In hot and humid climates like Hong Kong, the insulation core of the smart systems is recommended to be laminated completely. This can be very helpful in achieving an acceptable payback period.

Keywords: smart building envelope, thermal performance, phase change material, energy efficiency, large-scale sandwich panel

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Authors: Ramin Mirzada, Takuya Maruyama

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Kabul is the heart of political, commercial, cultural, educational and social life in Afghanistan and the fifth fastest growing city in the world. Minimum income inclined most of Kabul residents to use public transport, especially buses, although there is no proper bus system, beside that there is no proper fare exist in Kabul city Due to wars. From 1992 to 2001 during civil wars, Kabul suffered damage and destruction of its transportation facilities including pavements, sidewalks, traffic circles, drainage systems, traffic signs and signals, trolleybuses and almost all of the public transport system (e.g. Millie bus). This research is mainly focused on Kabul city’s transportation system. In this research, the data used have been gathered by Japan International Cooperation Agency (JICA) in 2008 and this data will be used to find demand and fare structure, additionally a survey was done in 2016 to find satisfaction level of Kabul residents for fare structure. Aim of this research is to observe the demand for Large Buses, compare to the actual supply from the government, analyze the current fare structure and compare it with the proposed fare (distance based fare) structure which has already been analyzed. Outcome of this research shows that the demand of Kabul city residents for the public transport (Large Buses) exceeds from the current supply, so that current public transportation (Large Buses) is not sufficient to serve public transport in Kabul city, worth to be mentioned, that in order to overcome this problem, there is no need to build new roads or exclusive way for buses. This research proposes government to change the fare from fixed fare to distance based fare, invest on public transportation and increase the number of large buses so that the current demand for public transport is met.

Keywords: transportation, planning, public transport, large buses, Kabul, Afghanistan

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Authors: Yousef Abu Nahleh, Alhasan Hakami, Arun Kumar, Fugen Daver

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This study considers the problem of calculating safety stocks in disaster situations inventory systems that face demand uncertainties. Safety stocks are essential to make the supply chain, which is controlled by forecasts of customer needs, in response to demand uncertainties and to reach predefined goal service levels. To solve the problem of uncertainties due to the disaster situations affecting the industry sector, the concept of Emergency Safety Stock (ESS) was proposed. While there exists a huge body of literature on determining safety stock levels, this literature does not address the problem arising due to the disaster and dealing with the situations. In this paper, the problem of improving the Order Quantity Model to deal with uncertainty of demand due to disasters is managed by incorporating a new idea called ESS which is based on the probability of disaster occurrence and uses probability matrix calculated from the historical data.

Keywords: Emergency Safety Stocks, safety stocks, Order Quantity Model, supply chain

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Authors: Ammar Z. Alshemary, Zafer Evis

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In this study, nanorods of Cr³⁺/SiO₄⁴⁻ codoped hydroxyapatite (Cr³⁺/SiO₄⁴⁻-HA) were synthesized successfully and rapidly through microwave irradiation technique, using (Ca(NO₃)₂•4H₂O), ((NH₄)₂HPO₄), (SiC₈H₂₀O₄) and (Cr(NO₃)₃.9H₂O) as source materials for Ca²⁺, PO₄³⁻, SiO₄⁴⁻ and Cr³⁺ ions, respectively. The impact of dopants on the phase formation and microstructure of the powders were investigated by means of X-ray diffraction (XRD), Fourier transform infrared spectrum analysis (FT-IR) and Field emission electron microscopy (FESEM) techniques. XRD analysis showed that with an incorporation of Cr³⁺/SiO₄⁴⁻ ions into HA structure resulted in peak broadening and reduced peak height due to the amorphous nature and reduced crystallinity of the resulting HA powder. FTIR spectroscopy revealed the existence of the different vibrational modes matching to phosphates and hydroxyl groups. The FESEM analysis showed a change in the crystal shape from spherical to rod shaped particles upon Cr³⁺ doping into the crystal structure. Acknowledgments: This study was supported by Karabük University (Project no. KBÜBAP-17-YD-144). The authors would like to thank for support.

Keywords: nano-hydroxyapatite, microwave, dopants, characterization, microstructure

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Authors: David W. Hill, Linda W. Glass, Jakob L. Vingren

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Maximal accumulated oxygen deficit (MAOD), the gold standard measure of anaerobic capacity, is the difference between the oxygen cost of exhaustive severe intensity exercise and the accumulated oxygen consumption (O2; mL·kg–1). In theory, MAOD can be estimated as the sum of independent estimates of the phosphocreatine and glycolysis contributions, which we refer to as PCr+glycolysis. Purpose: The purpose was to test the hypothesis that PCr+glycolysis provides a valid measure of anaerobic capacity in cycling and running. Methods: The participants were 27 women (mean ± SD, age 22 ±1 y, height 165 ± 7 cm, weight 63.4 ± 9.7 kg) and 25 men (age 22 ± 1 y, height 179 ± 6 cm, weight 80.8 ± 14.8 kg). They performed two exhaustive cycling and running tests, at speeds and work rates that were tolerable for ~5 min. The rate of oxygen consumption (VO2; mL·kg–1·min–1) was measured in warmups, in the tests, and during 7 min of recovery. Fingerprick blood samples obtained after exercise were analysed to determine peak blood lactate concentration (PeakLac). The VO2 response in exercise was fitted to a model, with a fast ‘primary’ phase followed by a delayed ‘slow’ component, from which was calculated the accumulated O2 and the excess O2 attributable to the slow component. The VO2 response in recovery was fitted to a model with a fast phase and slow component, sharing a common time delay. Oxygen demand (in mL·kg–1·min–1) was determined by extrapolation from steady-state VO2 in warmups; the total oxygen cost (in mL·kg–1) was determined by multiplying this demand by time to exhaustion and adding the excess O2; then, MAOD was calculated as total oxygen cost minus accumulated O2. The phosphocreatine contribution (area under the fast phase of the post-exercise VO2) and the glycolytic contribution (converted from PeakLac) were summed to give PCr+glycolysis. There was not an interaction effect involving sex, so values for anaerobic capacity were examined using a two-way ANOVA, with repeated measures across method (PCr+glycolysis vs MAOD) and mode (cycling vs running). Results: There was a significant effect only for exercise mode. There was no difference between MAOD and PCr+glycolysis: values were 59 ± 6 mL·kg–1 and 61 ± 8 mL·kg–1 in cycling and 78 ± 7 mL·kg–1 and 75 ± 8 mL·kg–1 in running. Discussion: PCr+glycolysis is a valid measure of anaerobic capacity in cycling and running, and it is as valid for women as for men.

Keywords: alactic, anaerobic, cycling, ergometer, glycolysis, lactic, lactate, oxygen deficit, phosphocreatine, running, treadmill

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Authors: Ziya Esen, Özgür Duygulu, Nazlı S. Büyükatak

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This study investigates the effects of aging heat treatment on corrosion resistance and mechanical properties of WE43 Magnesium alloy. The heat treatment of alloys was conducted by solutionizing at 525oC for 16 h, followed by aging at 190, 210 and 230oC for up to 48 h. The type and the size of precipitates formed upon aging have influenced both the mechanical properties and corrosion behavior of the alloy. Solutionized alloy displayed the worst corrosion resistance in simulated body fluid, while peak hardness and the best corrosion resistance were observed in the alloy aged at 210oC for 24 h as a result of β’ precipitate formation. Longer aging duration at 210oC decreased the corrosion rate due to the coarsening of the precipitates and formation of precipitate-free zones. The increased corrosion resistance of the peak aged samples was attributed to the slowing down effect of the Mg(OH)₂/MgO corrosion layer by the pinning effect of β’-precipitates.

Keywords: WE43 magnesium alloy, simulated body fluid, corrosion, mechanical properties

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Authors: Jacky Hau

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The prevalence of emerging technologies disrupts various industries as well as consumer behavior. Data collection has been in the fingertip and inherited through enabled Internet-of-things (IOT) devices. Big data analytics (BDA) becomes possible and allows real-time demand network management (DNM) through leagile supply chain. To enhance further on its resilience and predictability, governance is going to be examined to promote supply chain transparency and trust in an efficient manner. Leagility combines lean thinking and agile techniques in supply chain management. It aims at reducing costs and waste, as well as maintaining responsiveness to any volatile consumer demand by means of adjusting the decoupling point where the product flow changes from push to pull. Leagility would only be successful when collaborative planning, forecasting, and replenishment (CPFR) process or alike is in place throughout the supply chain business entities. Governance and procurement of the supply chain, however, is crucial and challenging for the execution of CPFR as every entity has to walk-the-talk generously for the sake of overall benefits of supply chain performance, not to mention the complexity of exercising the polices at both of within across various supply chain business entities on account of organizational behavior and mutual trust. Empirical survey results showed that the effective timespan on demand forecasting had been drastically shortening in the magnitude of months to weeks planning horizon, thus agility shall come first and preferably following by lean approach in a timely manner.

Keywords: governance, leagility, procure-to-pay, source-to-contract

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Authors: Lei Zhao, Zhe Yuan, Wenyue Kuang

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This paper studies two-warehouse inventory models for a deteriorating item considering that the demand is influenced by inventory levels. The problem mainly focuses on the optimal order policy and the optimal order cycle with inventory-level-dependent demand in two-warehouse system for retailers. It considers the different deterioration rates and the inventory holding costs in owned warehouse (OW) and rented warehouse (RW), and the conditions of transportation cost, allowed shortage and partial backlogging. Two inventory models are formulated: last-in first-out (LIFO) model and first-in-first-out (FIFO) model based on the policy choices of LIFO and FIFO, and a comparative analysis of LIFO model and FIFO model is made. The study finds that the FIFO policy is more in line with realistic operating conditions. Especially when the inventory holding cost of OW is high, and there is no difference or big difference between deterioration rates of OW and RW, the FIFO policy has better applicability. Meanwhile, this paper considers the differences between the effects of warehouse and shelf inventory levels on demand, and then builds retailers’ inventory decision model and studies the factors of the optimal order quantity, the optimal order cycle and the average inventory cost per unit time. To minimize the average total cost, the optimal dispatching policies are provided for retailers’ decisions.

Keywords: FIFO model, inventory-level-dependent, LIFO model, two-warehouse inventory

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Authors: Carlos Gonzalez

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This paper describes a system to optimize the use of the internet by clients requiring downloading of videos at peak hours. The system consists of a web server belonging to a provider of video contents, a provider of internet communications and a software application running on a client’s computer. The client using the application software will communicate to the video provider a list of the client’s future video demands. The video provider calculates which videos are going to be more in demand for download in the immediate future, and proceeds to request the internet provider the most optimal hours to do the downloading. The times of the downloading will be sent to the application software, which will use the information of pre-established hours negotiated between the video provider and the internet provider to download those videos. The videos will be saved in a special protected section of the user’s hard disk, which will only be accessed by the application software in the client’s computer. When the client is ready to see a video, the application will search the list of current existent videos in the area of the hard disk; if it does exist, it will use this video directly without the need for internet access. We found that the best way to optimize the download traffic of videos is by negotiation between the internet communication provider and the video content provider.

Keywords: internet optimization, video download, future demands, secure storage

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Authors: Aaron Huber, Manoj Karwa

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Floods, heat waves, drought, wildfires, tornadoes and other environmental disasters are a snapshot of looming national problems that can create increasing demands on the national grid. With nearly 500,000 school buses on the road and the environmental protection agency (EPA) providing nearly $1B for electric school buses, there is a solution for this national issue. Bidirectional batteries in electric school buses enable a future proof solution to sustain the power grid during adverse environmental conditions and other periods of high demand. School buses have larger batteries than standard electric vehicles. When they are not transporting students, these buses can spend peak solar hours parked and plugged into bi-directional direct current fast chargers (DCFC). A partnership with Highland Electric, Proterra and Rhombus enabled over 7 MWh of energy servicing Massachusetts and Vermont grids. The buses were part of a vehicle to grid (V2G) program with National Grid and Green Mountain Power that can charge an average American home for one month with a single bus. V2G infrastructure enables school systems to future proof their charging strategies, strengthen their local grids and can create additional revenue streams with their EV fleets. A bidirectional ecosystem with Highland, Proterra and Rhombus can enable grid resiliency or the ability to withstand power outages caused by excessive demands, natural disasters or rogue nation's attacks with no loss of service. A fleet of school buses is a standalone resilient asset that can be accessed across a city to keep its citizens safe without having any toxic fumes. Nearly 95% of all school buses across USA are powered by diesel internal combustion engines. Diesel exhaust has been classified as a human carcinogen, and it can lead to and exacerbate respiratory conditions. Bidirectional school buses and chargers enable energy justice by providing backup power in case of emergencies or high demand for marginalized communities and aim to make energy more accessible, affordable, clean, and democratically managed.

Keywords: V2G, vehicle to grid, electric buses, eBuses, DC fast chargers, DCFC

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Authors: Victor Vasques Ribeiro

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The Santa Cruz dos Navegantes beach is located in the city of Guarujá, in the central portion of the coast of the state of São Paulo. Next to this beach is located the Channel of the Port of Santos, configured as a source of plastic pellets for marine environments. On sandy beaches near the sources, especially during the winter and after cold front entrance events, the amounts of pellets can be very high. This study aimed to determine the influence of a cold front entry event of the winter of 2019 on the amount of pellets found on Santa Cruz dos Navegantes beach, besides assuming the proximity of the sources. During six consecutive collection campaigns, three of which were previous and three after the cold front entry peak, 30.0 square meters of surface sediments were sampled in each campaign. The color and shape of the pellets were determined to assume the length of the permanence of these granules in the marine environment and, consequently, the proximity of the sources. This beach was considered ideal for this type of research. The pellet pollution index (PPI) was from moderate to very high right after the peak of the cold front entry. The cold front peak event significantly influenced the amount of pellets found on the beach of Santa Cruz dos Navegantes. The factors that can bury the pellets in the sediments were classified as low when compared to other beaches in the region. Most of the pellets found were recently produced and lost to aquatic environments. Like the other beaches near Santos Bay, Santa Cruz dos Navegantes beach receives significant amounts of pellets that have nearby origins. Therefore, it was supposed that the activities of the Santos port complex are sources of pellets for the marine environment. This pollution can be further worsened in certain meteoceanographic events. The beaches of this region need to be constantly monitored and evaluated for pollution by pellets.

Keywords: beach, cold front, pellets, sources

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Authors: F. Massri, M. Shkarneh, B. Almassri

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Water scarcity and increasing water demand especially for residential use are major challenges facing Palestine. The need to accurately forecast water consumption is useful for the planning and management of this natural resource. The main objective of this paper is to (i) study the major factors influencing the water consumption in Palestine, (ii) understand the general pattern of Household water consumption, (iii) assess the possible changes in household water consumption and suggest appropriate remedies and (iv) develop prediction model based on the Artificial Neural Network to the water consumption in Palestinian cities. The paper is organized in four parts. The first part includes literature review of household water consumption studies. The second part concerns data collection methodology, conceptual frame work for the household water consumption surveys, survey descriptions and data processing methods. The third part presents descriptive statistics, multiple regression and analysis of the water consumption in the two Palestinian cities. The final part develops the use of Artificial Neural Network for modeling the water consumption in Palestinian cities.

Keywords: water management, demand forecasting, consumption, ANN, Ramallah

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Authors: Nabil A. Ahmed, Nasser A. N. Mhaisen

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The paper presents a solution to enhance the power quality and to reduce the peak load demand in Kuwait electric grid as a solution to the shortage of electricity production. Technical, environmental and economic feasibility study of utilizing integrated grid-connected photovoltaic (PV) system in residential buildings for supplying 7.1% of electrical power consumption in Kuwait is carried out using RETScreen software. A 10 KWp on-grid PV power generation system spread on the rooftop of the residential buildings is adopted and investigated and the complete system performance is simulated using PSIM software. Taking into account the international prices of electricity and natural gas, the proposed solution is investigated and tested for four different types of installation systems in terms of power generation and costs which includes horizontal installation, 25º tilted angle, single axis tracking and dual axis tracking. Results shows that the 25º tilted angle fixed mounted system is the most efficient type. The payback period as a tool of benefit analysis of the proposed system is calculated and it found to be 2.55 years.

Keywords: photovoltaics, residential buildings, electrical grid, production capacity, on-grid, power generation

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Authors: Ali Hashemifarzad, Jens Zum Hingst

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The structure of the world’s energy systems has changed significantly over the past years. One of the most important challenges in the 21st century in Germany (and also worldwide) is the energy transition. This transition aims to comply with the recent international climate agreements from the United Nations Climate Change Conference (COP21) to ensure sustainable energy supply with minimal use of fossil fuels. Germany aims for complete decarbonization of the energy sector by 2050 according to the federal climate protection plan. One of the stipulations of the Renewable Energy Sources Act 2017 for the expansion of energy production from renewable sources in Germany is that they cover at least 80% of the electricity requirement in 2050; The Gross end energy consumption is targeted for at least 60%. This means that by 2050, the energy supply system would have to be almost completely converted to renewable energy. An essential basis for the development of such a sustainable energy supply from 100% renewable energies is to predict the energy requirement by 2050. This study presents two scenarios for the final energy demand in Germany in 2050. In the first scenario, the targets for energy efficiency increase and demand reduction are set very ambitiously. To build a comparison basis, the second scenario provides results with less ambitious assumptions. For this purpose, first, the relevant framework conditions (following CUTEC 2016) were examined, such as the predicted population development and economic growth, which were in the past a significant driver for the increase in energy demand. Also, the potential for energy demand reduction and efficiency increase (on the demand side) was investigated. In particular, current and future technological developments in energy consumption sectors and possible options for energy substitution (namely the electrification rate in the transport sector and the building renovation rate) were included. Here, in addition to the traditional electricity sector, the areas of heat, and fuel-based consumptions in different sectors such as households, commercial, industrial and transport are taken into account, supporting the idea that for a 100% supply from renewable energies, the areas currently based on (fossil) fuels must be almost completely be electricity-based by 2050. The results show that in the very ambitious scenario a final energy demand of 1,362 TWh/a is required, which is composed of 818 TWh/a electricity, 229 TWh/a ambient heat for electric heat pumps and approx. 315 TWh/a non-electric energy (raw materials for non-electrifiable processes). In the less ambitious scenario, in which the targets are not fully achieved by 2050, the final energy demand will need a higher electricity part of almost 1,138 TWh/a (from the total: 1,682 TWh/a). It has also been estimated that 50% of the electricity revenue must be saved to compensate for fluctuations in the daily and annual flows. Due to conversion and storage losses (about 50%), this would mean that the electricity requirement for the very ambitious scenario would increase to 1,227 TWh / a.

Keywords: energy demand, energy transition, German Energiewende, 100% renewable energy production

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Authors: Meng Xu, Alexis K. H. Lau, Ming Xu, Bill Barron, Narges Shahraki

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As an emerging unconventional energy, shale gas has been an economically viable step towards a cleaner energy future in U.S. China also has shale resources that are estimated to be potentially the largest in the world. In addition, China has enormous unmet for a clean alternative to substitute coal. Nonetheless, the geological complexity of China’s shale basins and issues of water scarcity potentially impose serious constraints on shale gas development in China. Further, even if China could replicate to a significant degree the U.S. shale gas boom, China faces the problem of transporting the gas efficiently overland with its limited pipeline network throughput capacity and coverage. The aim of this study is to identify the potential bottlenecks in China’s gas transmission network, as well as to examine the shale gas development affecting particular supply locations and demand centers. We examine this through application of three scenarios with projecting domestic shale gas supply by 2020: optimistic, medium and conservative shale gas supply, taking references from the International Energy Agency’s (IEA’s) projections and China’s shale gas development plans. Separately we project the gas demand at provincial level, since shale gas will have more significant impact regionally than nationally. To quantitatively assess each shale gas development scenario, we formulated a gas pipeline optimization model. We used ArcGIS to generate the connectivity parameters and pipeline segment length. Other parameters are collected from provincial “twelfth-five year” plans and “China Oil and Gas Pipeline Atlas”. The multi-objective optimization model uses GAMs and Matlab. It aims to minimize the demands that are unable to be met, while simultaneously seeking to minimize total gas supply and transmission costs. The results indicate that, even if the primary objective is to meet the projected gas demand rather than cost minimization, there’s a shortfall of 9% in meeting total demand under the medium scenario. Comparing the results between the optimistic and medium supply of shale gas scenarios, almost half of the shale gas produced in Sichuan province and Chongqing won’t be able to be transmitted out by pipeline. On the demand side, the Henan province and Shanghai gas demand gap could be filled as much as 82% and 39% respectively, with increased shale gas supply. To conclude, the pipeline network in China is currently not sufficient in meeting the projected natural gas demand in 2020 under medium and optimistic scenarios, indicating the need for substantial pipeline capacity expansion for some of the existing network, and the importance of constructing new pipelines from particular supply to demand sites. If the pipeline constraint is overcame, Beijing, Shanghai, Jiangsu and Henan’s gas demand gap could potentially be filled, and China could thereby reduce almost 25% its dependency on LNG imports under the optimistic scenario.

Keywords: energy policy, energy systematic analysis, scenario analysis, shale gas in China

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Authors: N. Benkaci, E. Oubaiche, J.-L. Chatelain, R. Bensalem, K. Abbes

Abstract:

The ambient vibration H/V technique is widely used nowadays in microzonation studies, because of its easy field handling and its low cost, compared to other geophysical methods. However, in presence of complex geology or lateral heterogeneity evidenced by more than one peak frequency in the H/V curve, it is difficult to interpret the results, especially when soil information is lacking. In this work, we focus on the construction site of the Baraki 40000=place stadium, located in the north-east side of the Mitidja basin (Algeria), to identify the seismic wave amplification zones. H/V curve analysis leads to the observation of spatial and time variability of the H/V frequency peaks. The spatial variability allows dividing the studied area into three main zones: (1) one with a predominant frequency around 1,5 Hz showing an important amplification level, (2) the second exhibits two peaks at 1,5 Hz and in the 4 Hz – 10 Hz range, and (3) the third zone is characterized by a plateau between 2 Hz and 3 Hz. These H/V curve categories reveal a consequent lateral heterogeneity dividing the stadium site roughly in the middle. Furthermore, a continuous ambient vibration recording during several weeks allows showing that the first peak at 1,5 Hz in the second zone, completely disappears between 2 am and 4 am, and reaching its maximum amplitude around 12 am. Consequently, the anthropogenic noise source generating these important variations could be the Algiers Rocade Sud highway, located in the maximum amplification azimuth direction of the H/V curves. This work points out that the H/V method is an important tool to perform nano-zonation studies prior to geotechnical and geophysical investigations, and that, in some cases, the H/V technique fails to reveal the resonance frequency in the absence of strong anthropogenic source.

Keywords: ambient vibrations, amplification, fundamental frequency, lateral heterogeneity, site effect

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Authors: Saemee Jun, Dong-Hyeon Shin, Tae-Sang Ahn, Hyung-Joon Kim

Abstract:

Building loss estimation methodologies which have been advanced considerably in recent decades are usually used to estimate socio and economic impacts resulting from seismic structural damage. In accordance with these methods, this paper presents the evaluation of an annual loss probability of a reinforced concrete moment resisting frame designed according to Korean Building Code. The annual loss probability is defined by (1) a fragility curve obtained from a capacity spectrum method which is similar to a method adopted from HAZUS, and (2) a seismic hazard curve derived from annual frequencies of exceedance per peak ground acceleration. Seismic fragilities are computed to calculate the annual loss probability of a certain structure using functions depending on structural capacity, seismic demand, structural response and the probability of exceeding damage state thresholds. This study carried out a nonlinear static analysis to obtain the capacity of a RC moment resisting frame selected as a prototype building. The analysis results show that the probability of being extensive structural damage in the prototype building is expected to 0.004% in a year.

Keywords: expected annual loss, loss estimation, RC structure, fragility analysis

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Authors: Y. Ghiassi-Farrokhfal

Abstract:

The number of electric vehicles (EVs) is increasing worldwide. Replacing gas fueled cars with EVs reduces carbon emission. However, the extensive energy consumption of EVs stresses the energy systems, requiring non-green sources of energy (such as gas turbines) to compensate for the new energy demand caused by EVs in the energy systems. To make EVs even a greener solution for the future energy systems, new EV charging stations are equipped with solar PV panels and batteries. This will help serve the energy demand of EVs through the green energy of solar panels. To ensure energy availability, solar panels are combined with batteries. The energy surplus at any point is stored in batteries and is used when there is not enough solar energy to serve the demand. While EV charging stations equipped with solar panels and batteries are green and ecologically optimal, they might not be financially viable solutions, due to battery prices. To make the system viable, we should size the battery economically and operate the system optimally. This is, in general, a challenging problem because of the stochastic nature of the EV arrivals at the charging station, the available solar energy, and the battery operating system. In this work, we provide a mathematical model for this problem and we compute the return on investment (ROI) of such a system, which is designed to be ecologically and financially optimal. We also quantify the minimum required investment in terms of battery and solar panels along with the operating strategy to ensure that a charging station has enough energy to serve its EV demand at any time.

Keywords: solar energy, battery storage, electric vehicle, charging stations

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Authors: Amit Kumar Jain, Surbhi Jain

Abstract:

The urban freight in a city constitutes 10 to 18 per cent of all city road traffic, and 40 per cent of air pollution and noise emissions, are directly related to commercial transport. The policy measures implemented by urban planners have sought to restrict rather than assist goods-vehicle operations. This approach has temporarily controlled the urban transport demand during peak hours of traffic but has not effectively solved transport congestion. The solution discussed in the paper envisages the development of a comprehensive network of Urban Freight Stations (UFS) connected through underground conveyor belts in the city in line with baggage segregation and distribution in any of the major airports. The transportation of freight shall be done in standard size containers/cars through rail borne carts. The freight can be despatched or received from any of the UFS. Once freight is booked for a destination from any of the UFS, it would be stuffed in the container and digitally tagged for the destination. The container would reach the destination UFS through a network of rail borne carts. The container would be de-stuffed at the destination UFS and sent for further delivery, or the consignee may be asked to collect the consignment from urban freight station. The obvious benefits would be decongestion of roads, reduction in air and noise pollution, saving in manpower used for freight transportation.

Keywords: congestion, urban freight, intelligent transport system, pollution

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Authors: Karim Hamidi Machekposhti, Hossein Sedghi

Abstract:

This study was designed to find the best stochastic model (using of time series analysis) for annual extreme streamflow (peak and maximum streamflow) of Karkheh River at Iran. The Auto-regressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) model used to simulate these series and forecast those in future. For the analysis, annual extreme streamflow data of Jelogir Majin station (above of Karkheh dam reservoir) for the years 1958–2005 were used. A visual inspection of the time plot gives a little increasing trend; therefore, series is not stationary. The stationarity observed in Auto-Correlation Function (ACF) and Partial Auto-Correlation Function (PACF) plots of annual extreme streamflow was removed using first order differencing (d=1) in order to the development of the ARIMA model. Interestingly, the ARIMA(4,1,1) model developed was found to be most suitable for simulating annual extreme streamflow for Karkheh River. The model was found to be appropriate to forecast ten years of annual extreme streamflow and assist decision makers to establish priorities for water demand. The Statistical Analysis System (SAS) and Statistical Package for the Social Sciences (SPSS) codes were used to determinate of the best model for this series.

Keywords: stochastic models, ARIMA, extreme streamflow, Karkheh river

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Authors: Hussain Ali Bekhet, Endang Jati Mat Sahid

Abstract:

For the past few decades, the Malaysian economy has expanded at an impressive pace, whilst, the Malaysian population has registered a relatively high growth rate. These factors had driven the growth of final energy demand. The ballooning energy demand coupled with the country’s limited indigenous energy resources have resulted in an increased of the country’s net import. Therefore, acknowledging the precarious position of the country’s energy self-sufficiency, this study has identified three main concerns regarding energy security, namely; over-dependence on fossil fuel, increasing energy import dependency, and increasing energy consumption per capita. This paper discusses the recent energy demand and supply trends, highlights the policies that are affecting energy security in Malaysia and suggests strategic options towards achieving energy security. The paper suggested that diversifying energy sources, reducing carbon content of energy, efficient utilization of energy and facilitating low-carbon industries could further enhance the effectiveness of the measures as the introduction of policies and initiatives will be more holistic.

Keywords: electricity, energy policy, energy security, Malaysia

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Authors: A. Derrouazin, N. Mekkakia-M, R. Taleb, M. Helaimi, A. Benbouali

Abstract:

Nowadays the use of different sources of renewable energy for the production of electricity is the concern of everyone, as, even impersonal domestic use of the electricity in isolated sites or in town. As the conventional sources of energy are shrinking, a need has arisen to look for alternative sources of energy with more emphasis on its optimal use. This paper presents design of a sustainable Hybrid Power System (PV-Wind-Storage) assisted by grid as supplementary sources applied to case study residential house, to meet its entire energy demand. A Fuzzy control system model has been developed to optimize and control flow of power from these sources. This energy requirement is mainly fulfilled from PV and Wind energy stored in batteries module for critical load of a residential house and supplemented by grid for base and peak load. The system has been developed for maximum daily households load energy of 3kWh and can be scaled to any higher value as per requirement of individual /community house ranging from 3kWh/day to 10kWh/day, as per the requirement. The simulation work, using intelligent energy management, has resulted in an optimal yield leading to average reduction in cost of electricity by 50% per day.

Keywords: photovoltaic (PV), wind turbine, battery, microcontroller, fuzzy control (FC), Matlab

Procedia PDF Downloads 648