Search results for: forward collision probability

Authors: Franklin N. Mabe, Samuel A. Donkoh, Seidu Al-Hassan

Abstract:

In order to increase and bridge the differences in rice yield, many farmers have resorted to adopting Farmer Innovation Systems (FISs) and Improved Agricultural Technologies (IATs). This study econometrically analysed the impacts of adoption of FISs and IATs on rice yield using multinomial endogenous switching regression (MESR). Nine-hundred and seven (907) rice farmers from Guinea Savannah Zone (GSZ), Forest Savannah Transition Zone (FSTZ) and Coastal Savannah Zone (CSZ) were used for the study. The study used both primary and secondary data. FBO advice, rice farming experience and distance from farming communities to input markets increase farmers’ adoption of only FISs. Factors that increase farmers’ probability of adopting only IATs are access to extension advice, credit, improved seeds and contract farming. Farmers located in CSZ have higher probability of adopting only IATs than their counterparts living in other agro-ecological zones. Age and access to input subsidy increase the probability of jointly adopting FISs and IATs. FISs and IATs have heterogeneous impact on rice yield with adoption of only IATs having the highest impact followed by joint adoption of FISs and IATs. It is important for stakeholders in rice subsector to champion the provision of improved rice seeds, the intensification of agricultural extension services and contract farming concept. Researchers should endeavour to researched into FISs.

Keywords: farmer innovation systems, improved agricultural technologies, multinomial endogenous switching regression, treatment effect

Procedia PDF Downloads 427

Authors: Avan Al-Saffar, Eun-Jin Kim

Abstract:

Both the logistic growth model and the gompertz growth model are used to describe growth processes. Both models driven by perturbations in different cases are investigated using information theory as a useful measure of sustainability and the variability. Specifically, we study the effect of different oscillatory modulations in the system's parameters on the evolution of the system and Probability Density Function (PDF). We show the maintenance of the initial conditions for a long time. We offer Fisher information analysis in positive and/or negative feedback and explain its implications for the sustainability of population dynamics. We also display a finite amplitude solution due to the purely fluctuating growth rate whereas the periodic fluctuations in negative feedback can lead to break down the system's self-regulation with an exponentially growing solution. In the cases tested, the gompertz and logistic systems show similar behaviour in terms of information and sustainability although they develop differently in time.

Keywords: dynamical systems, fisher information, probability density function (pdf), sustainability

Procedia PDF Downloads 433

Authors: A. Moawad, K. C. Yao, A. Mansour, R. Gautier

Abstract:

The detecting of an occupied frequency band is a major issue in cognitive radio systems. The detection process becomes difficult if the signal occupying the band of interest has faded amplitude due to multipath effects. These effects make it hard for an occupying user to be detected. This work mitigates the missed-detection problem in the context of cognitive radio in frequency-selective fading channel by proposing blind channel estimation method that is based on scattering transform. By initially applying conventional energy detection, the missed-detection probability is evaluated, and if it is greater than or equal to 50%, channel estimation is applied on the received signal followed by channel equalization to reduce the channel effects. In the proposed channel estimator, we modify the Morlet wavelet by using its first derivative for better frequency resolution. A mathematical description of the modified function and its frequency resolution is formulated in this work. The improved frequency resolution is required to follow the spectral variation of the channel. The channel estimation error is evaluated in the mean-square sense for different channel settings, and energy detection is applied to the equalized received signal. The simulation results show improvement in reducing the missed-detection probability as compared to the detection based on principal component analysis. This improvement is achieved at the expense of increased estimator complexity, which depends on the number of wavelet filters as related to the channel taps. Also, the detection performance shows an improvement in detection probability for low signal-to-noise scenarios over principal component analysis- based energy detection.

Keywords: channel estimation, cognitive radio, scattering transform, spectrum sensing

Procedia PDF Downloads 197

Authors: Mujtaba Roshan, John A. Schormans

Abstract:

Quality of Experience (QoE) drives churn in the broadband networks industry, and good QoE plays a large part in the retention of customers. QoE is known to be affected by the Quality of Service (QoS) factors packet loss probability (PLP), delay and delay jitter caused by the network. Earlier results have shown that the relationship between these QoS factors and QoE is non-linear, and may vary from application to application. We use the network emulator Netem as the basis for experimentation, and evaluate how QoE varies as we change the emulated QoS metrics. Focusing on Video-on-Demand, we discovered that the reported QoE may differ widely for users of different age groups, and that the most demanding age group (the youngest) can require an order of magnitude lower PLP to achieve the same QoE than is required by the most widely studied age group of users. We then used a bottleneck TCP model to evaluate the capacity cost of achieving an order of magnitude decrease in PLP, and found it be (almost always) a 3-fold increase in link capacity that was required.

Keywords: network capacity, packet loss probability, quality of experience, quality of service

Procedia PDF Downloads 274

Authors: Oh Hyeon Jeon, WooYoung Jung

Abstract:

In this study, seepage analysis was performed by the level difference between upstream and downstream of weir structure for safety evaluation of weir structure against flooding. Monte Carlo Simulation method was employed by considering the probability distribution of the adjacent ground parameter, i.e., permeability coefficient of weir structure. Moreover, by using a commercially available finite element program (ABAQUS), modeling of the weir structure is carried out. Based on this model, the characteristic of water seepage during flooding was determined at each water level with consideration of the uncertainty of their corresponding permeability coefficient. Subsequently, fragility function could be constructed based on this response from numerical analysis; this fragility function results could be used to determine the weakness of weir structure subjected to flooding disaster. They can also be used as a reference data that can comprehensively predict the probability of failur,e and the degree of damage of a weir structure.

Keywords: weir structure, seepage, flood disaster fragility, probabilistic risk assessment, Monte-Carlo simulation, permeability coefficient

Procedia PDF Downloads 354

Authors: Neeta Kumari, Gopal Pathak

Abstract:

Artificial neural network has been proved to be an efficient tool for non-parametric modeling of data in various applications where output is non-linearly associated with input. It is a preferred tool for many predictive data mining applications because of its power , flexibility, and ease of use. A standard feed forward networks (FFN) is used to predict the groundwater fluoride content. The ANN model is trained using back propagated algorithm, Tansig and Logsig activation function having varying number of neurons. The models are evaluated on the basis of statistical performance criteria like Root Mean Squarred Error (RMSE) and Regression coefficient (R2), bias (mean error), Coefficient of variation (CV), Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency (NSE), and the index of agreement (IOA). The results of the study indicate that Artificial neural network (ANN) can be used for groundwater fluoride prediction in the limited data situation in the hard rock region like western parts of Jharkhand with sufficiently good accuracy.

Keywords: Artificial neural network (ANN), FFN (Feed-forward network), backpropagation algorithm, Levenberg-Marquardt algorithm, groundwater fluoride contamination

Procedia PDF Downloads 551

Authors: Zhuoran Shan, Li Wan, Xianchun Zhang

Abstract:

With an increasing trend of regionalization and polycentricity in Chinese contemporary big cities, “sub-region life circle” turns to be an effective method on rational organization of urban function and spatial structure. By the method of questionnaire, network big data, route inversion on internet map, GIS spatial analysis and logistic regression, this article makes research on characteristic and formation mechanism of “sub-region life circle” based on human high-probability daily activity in Chinese big cities. Firstly, it shows that “sub-region life circle” has been a new general spatial sphere of residents' high-probability daily activity and mobility in China. Unlike the former analysis of the whole metropolitan or the micro community, “sub-region life circle” has its own characteristic on geographical sphere, functional element, spatial morphology and land distribution. Secondly, according to the analysis result with Binary Logistic Regression Model, the research also shows that seven factors including land-use mixed degree and bus station density impact the formation of “sub-region life circle” most, and then analyzes the index critical value of each factor. Finally, to establish a smarter “sub-region life circle”, this paper indicates that several strategies including jobs-housing fit, service cohesion and space reconstruction are the keys for its spatial organization optimization. This study expands the further understanding of cities' inner sub-region spatial structure based on human daily activity, and contributes to the theory of “life circle” in urban's meso-scale.

Keywords: sub-region life circle, characteristic, formation mechanism, human activity, spatial structure

Procedia PDF Downloads 301

Authors: Sherif M. Hafez, Remon F. Aziz, May S. A. Elalim

Abstract:

Project managers today rely on scheduling tools based on the Critical Path Method (CPM) to determine the overall project duration and the activities’ float times which lead to greater efficiency in planning and control of projects. CPM was useful for scheduling construction projects, but researchers had highlighted a number of serious drawbacks that limit its use as a decision support tool and lacks the ability to clearly record and represent detailed information. This paper discusses the drawbacks of CPM as a scheduling technique and presents a modified critical path method (CPM) model which is called critical path segments (CPS). The CPS scheduling mechanism addresses the problems of CPM in three ways: decomposing the activity duration of separated but connected time segments; all relationships among activities are converted into finish–to–start relationship; and analysis and calculations are made with forward path. Sample cases are included to illustrate the shortages in CPM, CPS full analysis and calculations are explained in details, and how schedules can be handled better with the CPS technique.

Keywords: construction management, scheduling, critical path method, critical path segments, forward pass, float, project control

Procedia PDF Downloads 353

Authors: Yousef Abu Nahleh, Alhasan Hakami, Arun Kumar, Fugen Daver

Abstract:

This study considers the problem of calculating safety stocks in disaster situations inventory systems that face demand uncertainties. Safety stocks are essential to make the supply chain, which is controlled by forecasts of customer needs, in response to demand uncertainties and to reach predefined goal service levels. To solve the problem of uncertainties due to the disaster situations affecting the industry sector, the concept of Emergency Safety Stock (ESS) was proposed. While there exists a huge body of literature on determining safety stock levels, this literature does not address the problem arising due to the disaster and dealing with the situations. In this paper, the problem of improving the Order Quantity Model to deal with uncertainty of demand due to disasters is managed by incorporating a new idea called ESS which is based on the probability of disaster occurrence and uses probability matrix calculated from the historical data.

Keywords: Emergency Safety Stocks, safety stocks, Order Quantity Model, supply chain

Procedia PDF Downloads 349

Authors: Qurratulain Faheem

Abstract:

The human body often serves as a reference point to analyse the notions of self and society. Situating on Merleau-Ponty and Bourdieu theories of embodiments, this research explores the notions around the human body and its influence on the ethical considerations in regards to organ transplantation among the Muslim communities in Pakistan. The context of Pakistan makes an intriguing case study as cadaveric organ transplantation is not in practise. Whereas living organ transplantation is commonly is practised between family members only. These contradictory practices apparently rests on the ideologies around the human body and religious beliefs as well the personal judgements and authority of healthcare professionals. This research is a year-long ethnographic study carried out as part of doctoral studies. An anthropological approach towards organ transplantation in Pakistan brought forward various socio-cultural notions around the human body and selfhood that serve as a framework around biomedical ethical issues in various societies. Further, it surface the contradictions and issues associated with organ transplantation that makes it a dilemma situated in a nexus of various socio-cultural and political factors rather seeing it as an isolated health concern. This research is a novel study on the subject of organ transplantation in the context of Pakistan but also put forward ethnographic data that could serve as a reference in other religious societies. Further, the ethnographic data bring forward experiences and stories of organ receivers, organ donors, religious leaders, healthcare professionals, and the general public, which aspire to encourage biomedical ethicists and social-scientists to consider ethnography as a research methodology and rely upon people’s lived experiences while establishing policies and practices around biomedical ethical issues.

Keywords: Gender, organ transplantation, muslims, pakistan, organ donation, bioethics, culture and religion, gender

Procedia PDF Downloads 118

Authors: Ling-Han Liu, Qian-Qian Yu, Xiang-Lin Gu

Abstract:

In this paper, the fragility analysis of earthquake-strong wind concurrent hazards considering structural uncertainties was conducted. Eleven sets of structural uncertainty parameters were considered, and random structural models were generated using Latin hypercube sampling. The uncertainties in seismic ground motion and wind load inputs were incorporated, and the conditional failure probability of the structures was calculated. A 12-story concrete building was used as an example, with the IDR (Inter-story Drift Ratio) as the performance indicator. The failure probabilities under individual and multiple hazards were compared, along with a comparison of fragility analysis results with and without considering structural uncertainties. The numerical simulations show that including structural uncertainties increases the structural failure probability by 20%. The peak stress and strain of core-restrained concrete, the structural damping ratio, and the peak stress of unrestrained concrete are found to be decisive factors in the structural response.

Keywords: structural uncertainty, incremental dynamic analysis, multi-hazard fragility, latin hypercube sampling

Procedia PDF Downloads 6

Authors: Jaime Martín-de-Nicolás, David Mata-Moya, Nerea del-Rey-Maestre, Pedro Gómez-del-Hoyo, María-Pilar Jarabo-Amores

Abstract:

Ship detection is nowadays quite an important issue in tasks related to sea traffic control, fishery management and ship search and rescue. Although it has traditionally been carried out by patrol ships or aircrafts, coverage and weather conditions and sea state can become a problem. Synthetic aperture radars can surpass these coverage limitations and work under any climatological condition. A fast CFAR ship detector based on a robust statistical modeling of sea clutter with respect to sea states in SAR images is used. In this paper, the minimum SNR required to obtain a given detection probability with a given false alarm rate for any sea state is determined. A Gaussian target model using real SAR data is considered. Results show that SNR does not depend heavily on the class considered. Provided there is some variation in the backscattering of targets in SAR imagery, the detection probability is limited and a post-processing stage based on morphology would be suitable.

Keywords: SAR, generalized gamma distribution, detection curves, radar detection

Procedia PDF Downloads 453

Authors: Mohamed Gomaa Mohamed

Abstract:

Type of study: Observational cross section study. Background and purpose: Forward head posture (FHP) is a common sagittal faulty posture with anterior head translation relative to vertical posture line. FHP related to temporomandibular joint dysfunctions, neck pain and headache. Sports persons usually overuse one side of the body in training and playing leading to postural imbalance, yet the effect of playing football or bodybuilding on measurements of FHP has never been studied. Participants: Thirty six subjects divided into 3 groups of 12 football players, 12 body builders and 12 students. Method: FHP severity was assessed by measuring the craniovertebral (CVA) and gaze angles, using the photogrammetric method. Photos were taken from right side of subjects while assuming standing position. Analysis of variance was used to assess angles difference between the three groups. Results: No significant differences were found in CVA and gaze angles between the three groups (P > 0.05). Conclusion: Playing football or body building doesn't impose significant FHP.

Keywords: craniovertebral angle, gaze angle, football, body building

Procedia PDF Downloads 416

Authors: Ratna Sen

Abstract:

As due to very high temperature of Plasma it is very difficult to confine it for sufficient time so that nuclear fusion reactions to take place, As we know Plasma escapes faster than the binary collision rates. We studied the ball analogy and the ‘energy principle’ and calculated the total potential energy for the whole Plasma. If δ ⃗w is negative, that is decrease in potential energy then the plasma will be unstable. We also discussed different approaches of stability analysis such as Nyquist Method, MHD approximation and Vlasov approach of plasma stability. So that by using magnetic field configurations we can able to create a stable Plasma in Tokamak for generating energy for future generations.

Keywords: jello, magnetic field configuration, MHD approximation, energy principle

Procedia PDF Downloads 444

Authors: Agnieszka Dudzik

Abstract:

The problem of correlation between random variables in the structural reliability analysis has been extensively discussed in literature on the subject. The cases taken under consideration were usually related to correlation between random variables from one side of ultimate limit state: correlation between particular loads applied on structure or correlation between resistance of particular members of a structure as a system. It has been proved that positive correlation between these random variables reduces the reliability of structure and increases the probability of failure. In the paper, the problem of correlation between random variables from both side of the limit state equation will be taken under consideration. The simplest case where these random variables are of the normal distributions will be concerned. The case when a degree of that correlation is described by the covariance or the coefficient of correlation will be used. Special attention will be paid on questions: how much that correlation changes the reliability level and can it be ignored. In reliability analysis will be used well-known methods for assessment of the failure probability: based on the Hasofer-Lind reliability index and Monte Carlo method adapted to the problem of correlation. The main purpose of this work will be a presentation how correlation of random variables influence on reliability index of steel bar structures. Structural design parameters will be defined as deterministic values and random variables. The latter will be correlated. The criterion of structural failure will be expressed by limit functions related to the ultimate and serviceability limit state. In the description of random variables will be used only for the normal distribution. Sensitivity of reliability index to the random variables will be defined. If the reliability index sensitivity due to the random variable X will be low when compared with other variables, it can be stated that the impact of this variable on failure probability is small. Therefore, in successive computations, it can be treated as a deterministic parameter. Sensitivity analysis leads to simplify the description of the mathematical model, determine the new limit functions and values of the Hasofer-Lind reliability index. In the examples, the NUMPRESS software will be used in the reliability analysis.

Keywords: correlation of random variables, reliability index, sensitivity of reliability index, steel structure

Procedia PDF Downloads 238

Authors: Arefeh Arabaninezhad, Ali Fakher

Abstract:

Since the deterministic analysis methods fail to take system uncertainties into account, probabilistic and non-probabilistic methods are suggested. Geotechnical analyses are used to determine the stress and deformation caused by construction; accordingly, many input variables which depend on ground behavior are required for geotechnical analyses. The Random Set approach is an applicable reliability analysis method when comprehensive sources of information are not available. Using Random Set method, with relatively small number of simulations compared to fully probabilistic methods, smooth extremes on system responses are obtained. Therefore random set approach has been proposed for reliability analysis in geotechnical problems. In the present study, the application of random set method in reliability analysis of deep excavations is investigated through three deep excavation projects which were monitored during the excavating process. A finite element code is utilized for numerical modeling. Two expected ranges, from different sources of information, are established for each input variable, and a specific probability assignment is defined for each range. To determine the most influential input variables and subsequently reducing the number of required finite element calculations, sensitivity analysis is carried out. Input data for finite element model are obtained by combining the upper and lower bounds of the input variables. The relevant probability share of each finite element calculation is determined considering the probability assigned to input variables present in these combinations. Horizontal displacement of the top point of excavation is considered as the main response of the system. The result of reliability analysis for each intended deep excavation is presented by constructing the Belief and Plausibility distribution function (i.e. lower and upper bounds) of system response obtained from deterministic finite element calculations. To evaluate the quality of input variables as well as applied reliability analysis method, the range of displacements extracted from models has been compared to the in situ measurements and good agreement is observed. The comparison also showed that Random Set Finite Element Method applies to estimate the horizontal displacement of the top point of deep excavation. Finally, the probability of failure or unsatisfactory performance of the system is evaluated by comparing the threshold displacement with reliability analysis results.

Keywords: deep excavation, random set finite element method, reliability analysis, uncertainty

Procedia PDF Downloads 268

Authors: Babak Mirbaha, Mahmoud Saffarzadeh, Atieh Asgari Toorzani

Abstract:

Pedestrians are the most vulnerable road users since they do not have a protective shell. One of the most common collisions for them is pedestrian-vehicle at intersections. In order to develop appropriate countermeasures to improve safety for them, researches have to be conducted to identify the factors that affect the risk of getting involved in such collisions. More specifically, this study investigates factors such as the influence of walking alone or having a baby while crossing the street, the observable age of pedestrian, the speed of pedestrians and the speed of approaching vehicles on risk perception of pedestrians. A nested logit model was used for modeling the behavioral structure of pedestrians. The results show that the presence of more lanes at intersections and not being alone especially having a baby while crossing, decrease the probability of taking a risk among pedestrians. Also, it seems that teenagers show more risky behaviors in crossing the street in comparison to other age groups. Also, the speed of approaching vehicles was considered significant. The probability of risk taking among pedestrians decreases by increasing the speed of approaching vehicle in both the first and the second lanes of crossings.

Keywords: pedestrians, intersection, nested logit, risk

Procedia PDF Downloads 187

Authors: Shahab Uddin, Kazi M. Uddin, Hamamah Sadiqa

Abstract:

The paper deals with the Banghabandhu Multipurpose Bridge (BMB), the 11th longest bridge in the world was constructed in 1998 aimed at contributing to promote economic development in Bangladesh. In recent years, however, the high incidence of traffic accidents and injuries at the bridge sites looms as a great safety concern. Investigation into the derailment of nine bogies out of thirteen of Dinajpur-bound intercity train ‘Drutajan Express ’were derailed and inclined on the Banghabandhu Multipurpose Bridge on 28 April 2014. The train accident in Bridge will be deep concern for both structural safety of bridge and people than other vehicles accident. In this study we analyzed the disaster probability of the Banghabandhu Multipurpose Bridge for accidents by checking the fitness of Bridge structure. We found that train accident impact is more risky than other vehicles accidents. We also found that socio-economic impact on Bangladesh will be deep concerned.

Keywords: train accident, derailment, disaster, socio-economic

Procedia PDF Downloads 302

Authors: R. Vigneswaran, S. Thilakanathan

Abstract:

Variable time-stepping algorithms for solving dynamical systems performed poorly for long time computations which pass close to a fixed point. To overcome this difficulty, several authors considered phase space error controls for numerical simulation of dynamical systems. In one generalized phase space error control, a step-size selection scheme was proposed, which allows this error control to be incorporated into the standard adaptive algorithm as an extra constraint at negligible extra computational cost. For this generalized error control, it was already analyzed the forward Euler method applied to the linear system whose coefficient matrix has real and negative eigenvalues. In this paper, this result was extended to the linear system whose coefficient matrix has complex eigenvalues with negative real parts. Some theoretical results were obtained and numerical experiments were carried out to support the theoretical results.

Keywords: adaptivity, fixed point, long time simulations, stability, linear system

Procedia PDF Downloads 312

Authors: Ashkan Zakaryazad, Ekrem Duman

Abstract:

A typical classification technique ranks the instances in a data set according to the likelihood of belonging to one (positive) class. A credit card (CC) fraud detection model ranks the transactions in terms of probability of being fraud. In fact, this approach is often criticized, because firms do not care about fraud probability but about the profitability or costliness of detecting a fraudulent transaction. The key contribution in this study is to focus on the profit maximization in the model building step. The artificial neural network proposed in this study works based on profit maximization instead of minimizing the error of prediction. Moreover, some studies have shown that the back propagation algorithm, similar to other gradient–based algorithms, usually gets trapped in local optima and swarm-based algorithms are more successful in this respect. In this study, we train our profit maximization ANN using the Migrating Birds optimization (MBO) which is introduced to literature recently.

Keywords: neural network, profit-based neural network, sum of squared errors (SSE), MBO, gradient descent

Procedia PDF Downloads 475

Authors: Surajit Das Barman, Rakibuzzaman Shah, Apurv Kumar

Abstract:

Bushfire is known as one of the ascendant factors to create pyrocumulus thundercloud that causes the ignition of new fires by pyrocumulonimbus (pyroCb) lightning strikes and creates major losses of lives and property worldwide. A conceptual model-based risk planning would be beneficial to predict the lightning striking zones on the surface of the earth underneath the pyroCb thundercloud. PyroCb thundercloud can generate both positive cloud-to-ground (+CG) and negative cloud-to-ground (-CG) lightning in which +CG tends to ignite more bushfires and cause massive damage to nature and infrastructure. In this paper, a simple line charge structured thundercloud model is constructed in 2-D coordinates using the method of image charge to predict the probable +CG lightning striking zones on the earth’s surface for two conceptual thundercloud charge configurations: titled dipole and conventional tripole structure with excessive lower positive charge regions that lead to producing +CG lightning. The electric potential and surface charge density along the earth’s surface for both structures via continuously adjusting the position and the charge density of their charge regions is investigated. Simulation results for tilted dipole structure confirm the down-shear extension of the upper positive charge region in the direction of the cloud’s forward flank by 4 to 8 km, resulting in negative surface density, and would expect +CG lightning to strike within 7.8 km to 20 km around the earth periphery in the direction of the cloud’s forward flank. On the other hand, the conceptual tripole charge structure with enhanced lower positive charge region develops negative surface charge density on the earth’s surface in the range |x| < 6.5 km beneath the thundercloud and highly favors producing +CG lightning strikes.

Keywords: pyrocumulonimbus, cloud-to-ground lightning, charge structure, surface charge density, forward flank

Procedia PDF Downloads 113

Authors: Yun-Pang Flötteröd, Jakob Erdmann

Abstract:

The human behaviors during evacuations are quite complex. One of the critical behaviors which affect the efficiency of evacuation is route choice. Therefore, the respective simulation modeling work needs to function properly. In this paper, Simulation of Urban Mobility’s (SUMO) current dynamic route modeling during evacuation, i.e. the rerouting functions, is examined with a real case study. The result consistency of the simulation and the reality is checked as well. Four influence factors (1) time to get information, (2) probability to cancel a trip, (3) probability to use navigation equipment, and (4) rerouting and information updating period are considered to analyze possible traffic impacts during the evacuation and to examine the rerouting functions in SUMO. Furthermore, some behavioral characters of the case study are analyzed with use of the corresponding detector data and applied in the simulation. The experiment results show that the dynamic route modeling in SUMO can deal with the proposed scenarios properly. Some issues and function needs related to route choice are discussed and further improvements are suggested.

Keywords: evacuation, microscopic traffic simulation, rerouting, SUMO

Procedia PDF Downloads 194

Authors: Chijioke Oliver Nwodoh, Jonah Ikechukwu Eze, Loretta Chika Ukwuaba, Ifeoma Ndubuisi, Ada Carol Nwaneri, Ijeoma Lewechi Okoronkwo

Abstract:

Presence of nursing workforce with unequal qualification and status in Nigeria has undermined the growth of nursing profession in the country. Upgrading of the existing basic and post-basic nursing schools to degree-awarding institutions in Nigeria is a way-forward to solving this inequality problem and Nigeria teaching hospitals are in vantage position for this project due to the already existing supportive structure and manpower in those hospitals. What the nurse trainers and the stakeholders of the teaching hospitals may hold for or against the upgrading is a determining factor for the upgrading project, but that is not clear and has not been investigated in Nigeria. The study investigated the perception of nurse trainers and stakeholders of teaching hospitals in Enugu State of Nigeria on the obstacles and ways-forward to upgrading nursing schools to degree-awarding institutions in Nigeria. The study specifically elicited what the subjects may view as obstacles to upgrading basic and post-basic nursing schools to degree-awarding institutions in Nigeria and ascertained their suggestions on the possible ways of overcoming the obstacles. By utilizing cross-sectional descriptive design and a purposive sampling procedure, 78 accessible subjects out of a total population of 87 were used for the study. The generated data from the subjects were analyzed using frequencies, percentages and mean for the research questions and Pearson’s chi-square for the hypotheses, with the aid of Statistical Package for Social Sciences Version 20.0. The result showed that lack of extant policy, fund, and disunity among policy makers and stakeholders of nursing profession are the main obstacles to the upgrading. However, the respondents did not see items like: stakeholders and nurse trainers of basic and post-basic schools of nursing; fear of admitting and producing poor quality nurses; and so forth, as obstacles to the upgrading project. Institution of the upgrading policy by Nursing and Midwifery Council of Nigeria, funding, awareness creation for the upgrading and unison among policy makers and stakeholders of nursing profession are the major possible ways to overcome the obstacles. The difference in the subjects’ perceptions between the two hospitals was found to be statistically insignificant (p > 0.05). It is recommended that the policy makers and stakeholders of nursing in Nigeria should unite and liaise with Federal Ministries of Health and Education for modalities and actualization of upgrading nursing schools to degree-awarding institutions in Nigeria.

Keywords: nurse trainers, obstacles, perception, stakeholders, teaching hospital, upgrading basic nursing schools, ways-forward

Procedia PDF Downloads 146

Authors: Justin Zhengjie Tan, Yang Zhao

Abstract:

Adiabatic Rapid Passage, a popular method of achieving population inversion, is studied in a Rabi dimer model in the presence of noise which acts as a dissipative environment. The integration of the multi-Davydov D2 Ansatz into the time-dependent variational framework enables us to model the intricate quantum system accurately. By influencing the system with a driving field strength resonant with the energy spacing, the probability of adiabatic rapid passage, which is modelled after the Landau Zener model, can be derived along with several other observables, such as the photon population. The effects of a dissipative environment can be reproduced by coupling the system to a common phonon mode. By manipulating the strength and frequency of the driving field, along with the coupling strength of the phonon mode to the qubits, we are able to control the qubits and photon dynamics and subsequently increase the probability of Adiabatic Rapid Passage happening.

Keywords: quantum electrodynamics, adiabatic rapid passage, Landau-Zener transitions, dissipative environment

Procedia PDF Downloads 87

Authors: Yansong Zhang, Xueyuan Li, Junjie Zhou, Xufeng Yin, Shihua Yuan, Shuxian Liu

Abstract:

Aiming at the verification of control algorithms for skid-steering vehicles, a vehicle simulation model of 6×6 electric skid-steering unmanned vehicle was established based on Trucksim and Simulink. The original transmission and steering mechanism of Trucksim are removed, and the electric skid-steering model and a closed-loop controller for the vehicle speed and yaw rate are built in Simulink. The simulation results are compared with the ones got by theoretical formulas. The results show that the predicted tire mechanics and vehicle kinematics of Trucksim-Simulink simulation model are closed to the theoretical results. Therefore, it can be used as an effective approach to study the dynamic performance and control algorithm of skid-steering vehicle. In this paper, a method of motion control based on feed forward control is also designed. The simulation results show that the feed forward control strategy can make the vehicle follow the target yaw rate more quickly and accurately, which makes the vehicle have more maneuverability.

Keywords: skid-steering, Trucksim-Simulink, feedforward control, dynamics

Procedia PDF Downloads 324

Authors: K. S. Zaytsev, Y. R. Nartsissov

Abstract:

Glycine is one of the key inhibitory neurotransmitters in Central nervous system (CNS) meanwhile glycinergic transmission is highly dependable on its appropriate reuptake from synaptic cleft. Glycine transporters (GlyT) of types 1 and 2 are the enzymes providing glycine transport back to neuronal and glial cells along with Na⁺ and Cl⁻ co-transport. The distribution and stoichiometry of GlyT1 and GlyT2 differ in details, and GlyT2 is more interesting for the research as it reuptakes glycine to neuron cells, whereas GlyT1 is located in glial cells. In the process of GlyT2 activity, the translocation of the amino acid is accompanied with binding of both one chloride and three sodium ions consequently (two sodium ions for GlyT1). In the present study, we developed a computer simulator of GlyT2 and GlyT1 activity based on known experimental data for quantitative estimation of membrane glycine transport. The trait of a single protein functioning was described using the probability approach where each enzyme state was considered separately. Created scheme of transporter functioning realized as a consequence of elemental steps allowed to take into account each event of substrate association and dissociation. Computer experiments using up-to-date kinetic parameters allowed receiving the number of translocated glycine molecules, Na⁺ and Cl⁻ ions per time period. Flexibility of developed software makes it possible to evaluate glycine reuptake pattern in time under different internal characteristics of enzyme conformational transitions. We investigated the behavior of the system in a wide range of equilibrium constant (from 0.2 to 100), which is not determined experimentally. The significant influence of equilibrium constant in the range from 0.2 to 10 on the glycine transfer process is shown. The environmental conditions such as ion and glycine concentrations are decisive if the values of the constant are outside the specified range.

Keywords: glycine, inhibitory neurotransmitters, probability approach, single protein functioning

Procedia PDF Downloads 119

Authors: Eugene Benilov, Mikhail Benilov

Abstract:

The Enskog-Vlasov (EV) equation is a widely used semi-phenomenological model of gas/liquid phase transitions. We show that it does not generally conserve energy, although there exists a restriction on its coefficients for which it does. Furthermore, if an energy-preserving version of the EV equation satisfies an H-theorem as well, it can be used to rigorously derive the so-called Maxwell construction which determines the parameters of liquid-vapor equilibria. Finally, we show that the EV model provides an accurate description of the thermodynamics of noble fluids, and there exists a version simple enough for use in applications.

Keywords: Enskog collision integral, hard spheres, kinetic equation, phase transition

Procedia PDF Downloads 155

Authors: Surya R. Niraula, Devendra B Chhetry, Girish K. Singh, S. Nagesh, Frederick A. Connell

Abstract:

Background: Although random sampling is generally considered to be the gold standard for population-based research, the majority of drug abuse research is based on non-random sampling despite the well-known limitations of this kind of sampling. Method: We compared the statistical properties of two surveys of drug abuse in the same community: one using snowball sampling of drug users who then identified “friend controls” and the other using a random sample of non-drug users (controls) who then identified “friend cases.” Models to predict drug abuse based on risk factors were developed for each data set using conditional logistic regression. We compared the precision of each model using bootstrapping method and the predictive properties of each model using receiver operating characteristics (ROC) curves. Results: Analysis of 100 random bootstrap samples drawn from the snowball-sample data set showed a wide variation in the standard errors of the beta coefficients of the predictive model, none of which achieved statistical significance. One the other hand, bootstrap analysis of the random-sample data set showed less variation, and did not change the significance of the predictors at the 5% level when compared to the non-bootstrap analysis. Comparison of the area under the ROC curves using the model derived from the random-sample data set was similar when fitted to either data set (0.93, for random-sample data vs. 0.91 for snowball-sample data, p=0.35); however, when the model derived from the snowball-sample data set was fitted to each of the data sets, the areas under the curve were significantly different (0.98 vs. 0.83, p < .001). Conclusion: The proposed method of random sampling of controls appears to be superior from a statistical perspective to snowball sampling and may represent a viable alternative to snowball sampling.

Keywords: drug abuse, matched case-control study, non-probability sampling, probability sampling

Procedia PDF Downloads 493

Authors: Bernardo C. P. Albuquerque, Darym J. F. Campos

Abstract:

Increasing our ability to solve complex engineering problems is directly related to the processing capacity of computers. By means of such equipments, one is able to fast and accurately run numerical algorithms. Besides the increasing interest in numerical simulations, probabilistic approaches are also of great importance. This way, statistical tools have shown their relevance to the modelling of practical engineering problems. In general, statistical approaches to such problems consider that the random variables involved follow a normal distribution. This assumption tends to provide incorrect results when skew data is present since normal distributions are symmetric about their means. Thus, in order to visualize and quantify this aspect, 9 statistical distributions (symmetric and skew) have been considered to model a hypothetical slope stability problem. The data modeled is the friction angle of a superficial soil in Brasilia, Brazil. Despite the apparent universality, the normal distribution did not qualify as the best fit. In the present effort, data obtained in consolidated-drained triaxial tests and saturated direct shear tests have been modeled and used to analytically derive the probability density function (PDF) of the safety factor of a hypothetical slope based on Mohr-Coulomb rupture criterion. Therefore, based on this analysis, it is possible to explicitly derive the failure probability considering the friction angle as a random variable. Furthermore, it is possible to compare the stability analysis when the friction angle is modelled as a Dagum distribution (distribution that presented the best fit to the histogram) and as a Normal distribution. This comparison leads to relevant differences when analyzed in light of the risk management.

Keywords: statistical slope stability analysis, skew distributions, probability of failure, functions of random variables

Procedia PDF Downloads 339

Authors: Babak Kamrani, Nozar Kishi

Abstract:

Stochastic catalog represents the events module of the earthquake loss estimation models. It includes series of events with different magnitudes and corresponding frequencies/probabilities. For the development of the stochastic catalog, random or uniform sampling methods are used to sample the events from the seismicity model. For covering all the Magnitude Frequency Distribution (MFD), a huge number of events should be generated for the above-mentioned methods. Characteristic Event (CE) method chooses the events based on the interest of the insurance industry. We divide the MFD of each source into bins. We have chosen the bins based on the probability of the interest by the insurance industry. First, we have collected the information for the available seismic sources. Sources are divided into Fault sources, subduction, and events without specific fault source. We have developed the MFD for each of the individual and areal source based on the seismicity of the sources. Afterward, we have calculated the CE magnitudes based on the desired probability. To develop the stochastic catalog, we have introduced uncertainty to the location of the events too.

Keywords: stochastic catalogue, earthquake loss, uncertainty, characteristic event

Procedia PDF Downloads 300