Search results for: directional solidification

Authors: Bai-Chen Xie, Xian-Peng Chen

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China has become the world's largest energy producer and consumer, and its development of renewable energy is of great significance to global energy governance and the fight against climate change. The rapid growth of solar power in China could help achieve its ambitious carbon peak and carbon neutrality targets early. However, the non-technical costs of solar power in China are much higher than at international levels, meaning that inefficiencies are rooted in poor management and improper policy design and that efficiency distortions have become a serious challenge to the sustainable development of the renewable energy industry. Unlike fossil energy generation technologies, the output of solar power is closely related to the volatile solar resource, and the spatial unevenness of solar resource distribution leads to potential efficiency spatial distribution differences. It is necessary to develop an efficiency evaluation method that considers the volatility of solar resources and explores the mechanism of the influence of natural geography and social environment on the spatially varying characteristics of efficiency distribution to uncover the root causes of managing inefficiencies. The study sets solar resources as stochastic inputs, introduces a chance-constrained data envelopment analysis model combined with the directional distance function, and measures the solar resource utilization efficiency of 222 solar power plants in representative photovoltaic bases in northwestern China. By the meta-frontier analysis, we measured the characteristics of different power plant clusters and compared the differences among groups, discussed the mechanism of environmental factors influencing inefficiencies, and performed statistical tests through the system generalized method of moments. Rational localization of power plants is a systematic project that requires careful consideration of the full utilization of solar resources, low transmission costs, and power consumption guarantee. Suitable temperature, precipitation, and wind speed can improve the working performance of photovoltaic modules, reasonable terrain inclination can reduce land cost, and the proximity to cities strongly guarantees the consumption of electricity. The density of electricity demand and high-tech industries is more important than resource abundance because they trigger the clustering of power plants to result in a good demonstration and competitive effect. To ensure renewable energy consumption, increased support for rural grids and encouraging direct trading between generators and neighboring users will provide solutions. The study will provide proposals for improving the full life-cycle operational activities of solar power plants in China to reduce high non-technical costs and improve competitiveness against fossil energy sources.

Keywords: solar power plants, environmental factors, data envelopment analysis, efficiency evaluation

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Authors: Andrea Bertocchi, Alessio Barnaba Di Fonzo, Davide Talarico, Simone Rivaroli, Jeff Konin

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The patient is a 89 years old male (180cm/85kg) retired notary former golfer with no past medical history. He describes a progressive ideomotor slowdown for 14 months. The disorder is characterized by short-term memory deficits and, for some months, also by unstable walking with a broad base with skidding and risk of falling at directional changes and urinary urgency. There were also episodes of aggression towards his wife and staff. At the time, the patient takes no prescribed medications. He has difficulty eating, dressing, and some problems with personal hygiene. In the initial visit, the patient was alert, cooperating, and performed simple tasks; however, he has a hearing impairment, slowed spontaneous speech, and amnestic deficit to the short story. Ideomotor apraxia is not present. He scored 20 points in the MMSE. From a motor function, he has deficits using Medical Research Council (MRC) 3-/5 in bilateral lower limbs and requires maximum assistance from sit to stand with existing premature fatigue. He’s unable to walk for about 1 month. Tremors and hypertonia are absent. BERG was unable to be administered, and BARTHEL was obtained 45/100. An Amyloid Angiopathy is suspected and then confirmed at the neurological examination. Therehabilitation objectives were the recovery of mobility and reinforcement of the UE/LE, especially legs, for recovery of standing and walking. The cognitive aspect was also an essential factor for the patient's recovery. The literature doesn’t demonstrate any particular studies regarding motor and cognitive rehabilitation on this pathology. Failing to manage his attention on exercise and tending to be disinterested and falling asleep constantly, we used golf-specific gestures to stimulate his mind to work and get results because the patient has memory recall of golf related movement. We worked for 4 months with a frequency of 3 sessions per week. Every session lasted for 45 minutes. After 4 months of work, the patient walked independently with the use of a stick for about 120 meters without stopping. MRC 4/5 AI bilaterally andpostural steps performed independently with supervision. BERG 36/56. BARTHEL 65/100. 6 Minutes Walking Test (6MWT), at the beginning, it wasn’t measurable, now, he performs 151,5m with Numeric Rating Scale 4 at the beginning and 7 at the end. Cognitively, he no longer has episodes of aggression, although the short-term memory and concentration deficit remains. Amyloid Angiopathy is a mix of motor and cognitive disorder. It is worth the thought that cerebral amyloid angiopathy manifests with functional deficits due to strokes and bleedings and, as such, has an important rehabilitation indication, as classical stroke is not associated with amyloidosis. Exploring the motor patterns learned at a young age and remained in the implicit and explicit memory of the patient allowed us to set up effective work and to obtain significant results in the short-middle term. Surely many studies will still be done regarding this pathology and its rehabilitation, but the importance of the cognitive sphere applied to the motor sphere could represent an important starting point.

Keywords: amyloid angiopathy, cognitive rehabilitation, golf, motor disorder

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Authors: Keita Nishio, Takashi Kaburagi, Yosuke Kurihara

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Recent advances in medical technology have served to enhance average life expectancy. However, the total time for which the patients are prescribed complete bedrest has also increased. With patients being required to maintain a constant lying posture- also called bedsore- development of a system to detect patient roll-over becomes imperative. For this purpose, extant studies have proposed the use of cameras, and favorable results have been reported. Continuous on-camera monitoring, however, tends to violate patient privacy. We have proposed unconstrained bio-signal measurement system that could detect body-motion during sleep and does not violate patient’s privacy. Therefore, in this study, we propose a roll-over detection method by the date obtained from the bi-signal measurement system. Signals recorded by the sensor were assumed to comprise respiration, pulse, body motion, and noise components. Compared the body-motion and respiration, pulse component, the body-motion, during roll-over, generate large vibration. Thus, analysis of the body-motion component facilitates detection of the roll-over tendency. The large vibration associated with the roll-over motion has a great effect on the Root Mean Square (RMS) value of time series of the body motion component calculated during short 10 s segments. After calculation, the RMS value during each segment was compared to a threshold value set in advance. If RMS value in any segment exceeded the threshold, corresponding data were considered to indicate occurrence of a roll-over. In order to validate the proposed method, we conducted experiment. A bi-directional microphone was adopted as a high-sensitivity pressure sensor and was placed between the mattress and bedframe. Recorded signals passed through an analog Band-pass Filter (BPF) operating over the 0.16-16 Hz bandwidth. BPF allowed the respiration, pulse, and body-motion to pass whilst removing the noise component. Output from BPF was A/D converted with the sampling frequency 100Hz, and the measurement time was 480 seconds. The number of subjects and data corresponded to 5 and 10, respectively. Subjects laid on a mattress in the supine position. During data measurement, subjects—upon the investigator's instruction—were asked to roll over into four different positions—supine to left lateral, left lateral to prone, prone to right lateral, and right lateral to supine. Recorded data was divided into 48 segments with 10 s intervals, and the corresponding RMS value for each segment was calculated. The system was evaluated by the accuracy between the investigator’s instruction and the detected segment. As the result, an accuracy of 100% was achieved. While reviewing the time series of recorded data, segments indicating roll-over tendencies were observed to demonstrate a large amplitude. However, clear differences between decubitus and the roll-over motion could not be confirmed. Extant researches possessed a disadvantage in terms of patient privacy. The proposed study, however, demonstrates more precise detection of patient roll-over tendencies without violating their privacy. As a future prospect, decubitus estimation before and after roll-over could be attempted. Since in this paper, we could not confirm the clear differences between decubitus and the roll-over motion, future studies could be based on utilization of the respiration and pulse components.

Keywords: bedsore, high-sensitivity pressure sensor, roll-over, unconstrained bio-signal measurement

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Authors: Payam Mousavi, Andrew L. Stewart, Huiwen You, Aryeh F. G. Fayerman

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We present a decision-support tool to assist an operator in the detection and tracking of a suspect vehicle traveling to an unknown target destination. Multiple data sources, such as traffic cameras, traffic information, weather, etc., are integrated and processed in real-time to infer a suspect’s intended destination chosen from a list of pre-determined high-value targets. Previously, we presented our work in the detection and tracking of vehicles using traffic and airborne cameras. Here, we focus on the fusion and processing of that information to predict a suspect’s behavior. The network of cameras is represented by a directional graph, where the edges correspond to direct road connections between the nodes and the edge weights are proportional to the average time it takes to travel from one node to another. For our experiments, we construct our graph based on the greater Los Angeles subset of the Caltrans’s “Performance Measurement System” (PeMS) dataset. We propose a Bayesian approach where a posterior probability for each target is continuously updated based on detections of the suspect in the live video feeds. Additionally, we introduce the concept of ‘soft interventions’, inspired by the field of Causal Inference. Soft interventions are herein defined as interventions that do not immediately interfere with the suspect’s movements; rather, a soft intervention may induce the suspect into making a new decision, ultimately making their intent more transparent. For example, a soft intervention could be temporarily closing a road a few blocks from the suspect’s current location, which may require the suspect to change their current course. The objective of these interventions is to gain the maximum amount of information about the suspect’s intent in the shortest possible time. Our system currently operates in a human-on-the-loop mode where at each step, a set of recommendations are presented to the operator to aid in decision-making. In principle, the system could operate autonomously, only prompting the operator for critical decisions, allowing the system to significantly scale up to larger areas and multiple suspects. Once the intended target is identified with sufficient confidence, the vehicle is reported to the authorities to take further action. Other recommendations include a selection of road closures, i.e., soft interventions, or to continue monitoring. We evaluate the performance of the proposed system using simulated scenarios where the suspect, starting at random locations, takes a noisy shortest path to their intended target. In all scenarios, the suspect’s intended target is unknown to our system. The decision thresholds are selected to maximize the chances of determining the suspect’s intended target in the minimum amount of time and with the smallest number of interventions. We conclude by discussing the limitations of our current approach to motivate a machine learning approach, based on reinforcement learning in order to relax some of the current limiting assumptions.

Keywords: autonomous surveillance, Bayesian reasoning, decision support, interventions, patterns of life, predictive analytics, predictive insights

Procedia PDF Downloads 115

Authors: Marco Frieslaar, Bing Chu, Eric Rogers

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Stroke is a devastating illness that is the second biggest cause of death in the world (after heart disease). Where it does not kill, it leaves survivors with debilitating sensory and physical impairments that not only seriously harm their quality of life, but also cause a high incidence of severe depression. It is widely accepted that early intervention is essential for recovery, but current rehabilitation techniques largely favor hospital-based therapies which have restricted access, expensive and specialist equipment and tend to side-step the emotional challenges. In addition, there is insufficient funding available to provide the long-term assistance that is required. As a consequence, recovery rates are poor. The relatively unexplored solution is to develop therapies that can be harnessed in the home and are formulated from technologies that already exist in everyday life. This would empower individuals to take control of their own improvement and provide choice in terms of when and where they feel best able to undertake their own healing. This research seeks to identify how effective post-stroke, rehabilitation therapy can be applied to upper limb mobility, within the physical context of a home rather than a hospital. This is being achieved through the design and construction of an automation scheme, based on iterative learning control and the Riener muscle model, that has the ability to adapt to the user and react to their level of fatigue and provide tangible physical recovery. It utilizes a SMART Phone and laptop to construct an iterative learning control (ILC) system, that monitors upper arm movement in three dimensions, as a series of exercises are undertaken. The equipment generates functional electrical stimulation to assist in muscle activation and thus improve directional accuracy. In addition, it monitors speed, accuracy, areas of motion weakness and similar parameters to create a performance index that can be compared over time and extrapolated to establish an independent and objective assessment scheme, plus an approximate estimation of predicted final outcome. To further extend its assessment capabilities, nerve conduction velocity readings are taken by the software, between the shoulder and hand muscles. This is utilized to measure the speed of response of neuron signal transfer along the arm and over time, an online indication of regeneration levels can be obtained. This will prove whether or not sufficient training intensity is being achieved even before perceivable movement dexterity is observed. The device also provides the option to connect to other users, via the internet, so that the patient can avoid feelings of isolation and can undertake movement exercises together with others in a similar position. This should create benefits not only for the encouragement of rehabilitation participation, but also an emotional support network potential. It is intended that this approach will extend the availability of stroke recovery options, enable ease of access at a low cost, reduce susceptibility to depression and through these endeavors, enhance the overall recovery success rate.

Keywords: home-based therapy, iterative learning control, Riener muscle model, SMART phone, stroke rehabilitation

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Authors: Karen L. Lindsay, Sonja Entringer, Claudia Buss, Pathik D. Wadhwa

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Maternal nutrition and stress are independently recognized as among the most important factors that influence prenatal biology, with implications for fetal development and poor pregnancy outcomes. While there is substantial evidence from non-pregnancy human and animal studies that a complex, bi-directional relationship exists between nutrition and stress, to the author’s best knowledge, their interaction in the context of pregnancy has been significantly understudied. The aim of this study is to assess the interaction between maternal psychological stress and diet quality across pregnancy and its effects on biomarkers of prenatal insulin resistance and inflammation. This is a prospective longitudinal study of N=235 women carrying a healthy, singleton pregnancy, recruited from prenatal clinics of the University of California, Irvine Medical Center. Participants completed a 4-day ambulatory assessment in early, middle and late pregnancy, which included multiple daily electronic diary entries using Ecological Momentary Assessment (EMA) technology on a dedicated study smartphone. The EMA diaries gathered moment-level data on maternal perceived stress, negative mood, positive mood and quality of social interactions. The numerical scores for these variables were averaged across each study time-point and converted to Z-scores. A single composite variable for 'STRESS' was computed as follows: (Negative mood+Perceived stress)–(Positive mood+Social interaction quality). Dietary intakes were assessed by three 24-hour dietary recalls conducted within two weeks of each 4-day assessment. Daily nutrient and food group intakes were averaged across each study time-point. The Alternative Healthy Eating Index adapted for pregnancy (AHEI-P) was computed for early, middle and late pregnancy as a validated summary measure of diet quality. At the end of each 4-day ambulatory assessment, women provided a fasting blood sample, which was assayed for levels of glucose, insulin, Interleukin (IL)-6 and Tumor Necrosis Factor (TNF)-α. Homeostasis Model Assessment of Insulin Resistance (HOMA-IR) was computed. Pearson’s correlation was used to explore the relationship between maternal STRESS and AHEI-P within and between each study time-point. Linear regression was employed to test the association of the stress-diet interaction (STRESS*AHEI-P) with the biological markers HOMA-IR, IL-6 and TNF-α at each study time-point, adjusting for key covariates (pre-pregnancy body mass index, maternal education level, race/ethnicity). Maternal STRESS and AHEI-P were significantly inversely correlated in early (r=-0.164, p=0.018) and mid-pregnancy (-0.160, p=0.019), and AHEI-P from earlier gestational time-points correlated with later STRESS (early AHEI-P x mid STRESS: r=-0.168, p=0.017; mid AHEI-P x late STRESS: r=-0.142, p=0.041). In regression models, the interaction term was not associated with HOMA-IR or IL-6 at any gestational time-point. The stress-diet interaction term was significantly associated with TNF-α according to the following patterns: early AHEI-P*early STRESS vs early TNF-α (p=0.005); early AHEI-P*early STRESS vs mid TNF-α (p=0.002); early AHEI-P*mid STRESS vs mid TNF-α (p=0.005); mid AHEI-P*mid STRESS vs mid TNF-α (p=0.070); mid AHEI-P*late STRESS vs late TNF-α (p=0.011). Poor diet quality is significantly related to higher psychosocial stress levels in pregnant women across gestation, which may promote inflammation via TNF-α. Future prenatal studies should consider the combined effects of maternal stress and diet when evaluating either one of these factors on pregnancy or infant outcomes.

Keywords: diet quality, inflammation, insulin resistance, nutrition, pregnancy, stress, tumor necrosis factor-alpha

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Authors: Alexandra Papagianni, George Filis, Panagiotis Papadopoulos

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The liberalization of the energy market and the increasing penetration of fluctuating renewables (e.g., wind and solar power) have heightened the importance of the spot market for ensuring efficient electricity supply. This is further emphasized by the EU’s goal of achieving net-zero emissions by 2050. The day-ahead market (DAM) plays a key role in European energy trading, accounting for 80-90% of spot transactions and providing critical insights for next-day pricing. Therefore, short-term electricity price forecasting (EPF) within the DAM is crucial for market participants to make informed decisions and improve their market positioning. Existing literature highlights out-of-sample performance as a key factor in assessing EPF accuracy, with influencing factors such as predictors, forecast horizon, model selection, and strategy. Several studies indicate that electricity demand is a primary price determinant, while renewable energy sources (RES) like wind and solar significantly impact price dynamics, often lowering prices. Additionally, incorporating data from neighboring countries, due to market coupling, further improves forecast accuracy. Most studies predict up to 24 steps ahead using hourly data, while some extend forecasts using higher-frequency data (e.g., half-hourly or quarter-hourly). Short-term EPF methods fall into two main categories: statistical and computational intelligence (CI) methods, with hybrid models combining both. While many studies use advanced statistical methods, particularly through different versions of traditional AR-type models, others apply computational techniques such as artificial neural networks (ANNs) and support vector machines (SVMs). Recent research combines multiple methods to enhance forecasting performance. Despite extensive research on EPF accuracy, a gap remains in understanding how forecasting strategy affects prediction outcomes. While iterated strategies are commonly used, they are often chosen without justification. This paper contributes by examining whether the choice of forecasting strategy impacts the quality of day-ahead price predictions, especially for multi-step forecasts. We evaluate both iterated and direct methods, exploring alternative ways of conducting iterated forecasts on benchmark and state-of-the-art forecasting frameworks. The goal is to assess whether these factors should be considered by end-users to improve forecast quality. We focus on the Greek DAM using data from July 1, 2021, to March 31, 2022. This period is chosen due to significant price volatility in Greece, driven by its dependence on natural gas and limited interconnection capacity with larger European grids. The analysis covers two phases: pre-conflict (January 1, 2022, to February 23, 2022) and post-conflict (February 24, 2022, to March 31, 2022), following the Russian-Ukraine conflict that initiated an energy crisis. We use the mean absolute percentage error (MAPE) and symmetric mean absolute percentage error (sMAPE) for evaluation, as well as the Direction of Change (DoC) measure to assess the accuracy of price movement predictions. Our findings suggest that forecasters need to apply all strategies across different horizons and models. Different strategies may be required for different horizons to optimize both accuracy and directional predictions, ensuring more reliable forecasts.

Keywords: short-term electricity price forecast, forecast strategies, forecast horizons, recursive strategy, direct strategy

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Authors: James Forren

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This research paper details a recent demonstrator project in which digital form found textile structures were built by human craftspersons wearing augmented reality (AR) head-worn displays (HWDs). The project utilized a wet-state natural fiber / cementitious matrix composite to generate minimal bending shapes in tension which, when cured and rotated, performed as minimal-bending compression members. The significance of the project is that it synthesizes computational structural simulations with visually guided handcraft production. Computational and physical form-finding methods with textiles are well characterized in the development of architectural form. One difficulty, however, is physically building computer simulations: often requiring complicated digital fabrication workflows. However, AR HWDs have been used to build a complex digital form from bricks, wood, plastic, and steel without digital fabrication devices. These projects utilize, instead, the tacit knowledge motor schema of the human craftsperson. Computational simulations offer unprecedented speed and performance in solving complex structural problems. Human craftspersons possess highly efficient complex spatial reasoning motor schemas. And textiles offer efficient form-generating possibilities for individual structural members and overall structural forms. This project proposes that the synthesis of these three modalities of structural problem-solving – computational, human, and material - may not only develop efficient structural form but offer further creative potentialities when the respective intelligence of each modality is productively leveraged. The project methodology pertains to its three modalities of production: 1) computational, 2) human, and 3) material. A proprietary three-dimensional graphic statics simulator generated a three-legged arch as a wireframe model. This wireframe was discretized into nine modules, three modules per leg. Each module was modeled as a woven matrix of one-inch diameter chords. And each woven matrix was transmitted to a holographic engine running on HWDs. Craftspersons wearing the HWDs then wove wet cementitious chords within a simple falsework frame to match the minimal bending form displayed in front of them. Once the woven components cured, they were demounted from the frame. The components were then assembled into a full structure using the holographically displayed computational model as a guide. The assembled structure was approximately eighteen feet in diameter and ten feet in height and matched the holographic model to under an inch of tolerance. The construction validated the computational simulation of the minimal bending form as it was dimensionally stable for a ten-day period, after which it was disassembled. The demonstrator illustrated the facility with which computationally derived, a structurally stable form could be achieved by the holographically guided, complex three-dimensional motor schema of the human craftsperson. However, the workflow traveled unidirectionally from computer to human to material: failing to fully leverage the intelligence of each modality. Subsequent research – a workshop testing human interaction with a physics engine simulation of string networks; and research on the use of HWDs to capture hand gestures in weaving seeks to develop further interactivity with rope and chord towards a bi-directional workflow within full-scale building environments.

Keywords: augmented reality, cementitious composites, computational form finding, textile structures

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Authors: Ali Kazemi

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Those within the volatile and interconnected international economic markets, appropriately predicting market trends, hold substantial fees for traders and financial establishments. Traditional device mastering strategies have made full-size strides in forecasting marketplace movements; however, monetary data's complicated and networked nature calls for extra sophisticated processes. This observation offers a groundbreaking method for monetary marketplace prediction that leverages the synergistic capability of Graph Convolutional Networks (GCNs) and Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) networks. Our suggested algorithm is meticulously designed to forecast the traits of inventory market indices and cryptocurrency costs, utilizing a comprehensive dataset spanning from January 1, 2015, to December 31, 2023. This era, marked by sizable volatility and transformation in financial markets, affords a solid basis for schooling and checking out our predictive version. Our algorithm integrates diverse facts to construct a dynamic economic graph that correctly reflects market intricacies. We meticulously collect opening, closing, and high and low costs daily for key inventory marketplace indices (e.g., S&P 500, NASDAQ) and widespread cryptocurrencies (e.g., Bitcoin, Ethereum), ensuring a holistic view of marketplace traits. Daily trading volumes are also incorporated to seize marketplace pastime and liquidity, providing critical insights into the market's shopping for and selling dynamics. Furthermore, recognizing the profound influence of the monetary surroundings on financial markets, we integrate critical macroeconomic signs with hobby fees, inflation rates, GDP increase, and unemployment costs into our model. Our GCN algorithm is adept at learning the relational patterns amongst specific financial devices represented as nodes in a comprehensive market graph. Edges in this graph encapsulate the relationships based totally on co-movement styles and sentiment correlations, enabling our version to grasp the complicated community of influences governing marketplace moves. Complementing this, our LSTM algorithm is trained on sequences of the spatial-temporal illustration discovered through the GCN, enriched with historic fee and extent records. This lets the LSTM seize and expect temporal marketplace developments accurately. Inside the complete assessment of our GCN-LSTM algorithm across the inventory marketplace and cryptocurrency datasets, the version confirmed advanced predictive accuracy and profitability compared to conventional and opportunity machine learning to know benchmarks. Specifically, the model performed a Mean Absolute Error (MAE) of 0.85%, indicating high precision in predicting day-by-day charge movements. The RMSE was recorded at 1.2%, underscoring the model's effectiveness in minimizing tremendous prediction mistakes, which is vital in volatile markets. Furthermore, when assessing the model's predictive performance on directional market movements, it achieved an accuracy rate of 78%, significantly outperforming the benchmark models, averaging an accuracy of 65%. This high degree of accuracy is instrumental for techniques that predict the course of price moves. This study showcases the efficacy of mixing graph-based totally and sequential deep learning knowledge in economic marketplace prediction and highlights the fee of a comprehensive, records-pushed evaluation framework. Our findings promise to revolutionize investment techniques and hazard management practices, offering investors and economic analysts a powerful device to navigate the complexities of cutting-edge economic markets.

Keywords: financial market prediction, graph convolutional networks (GCNs), long short-term memory (LSTM), cryptocurrency forecasting

Procedia PDF Downloads 66