Search results for: risk mitigation

Authors: Atia Alam

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Growing liberalisation and intense market competition increase firm’s risk exposure and induce corporations to use derivatives extensively as a risk management instrument, which results in decrease in firm’s risk, and increase in value. Present study contributes towards existing literature by providing an in-depth analysis regarding the effect of extent of derivative usage on firm’s risk and value by using panel data models and seemingly unrelated regression technique. New evidence is established in current literature by dividing the sample data based on firm’s Exchange Rate (ER) and Interest Rate (IR) exposure. Analysis is performed for the effect of extent of derivative usage on firm’s risk and value and its variation with respect to the ER and IR exposure. Sample data consists of 166 Pakistani firms listed on Pakistan stock exchange for the period of 2004-2010. Results show that extensive usage of derivative instruments significantly increases firm value and reduces firm’s risk. Furthermore, comprehensive analysis depicts that Pakistani corporations having higher exchange rate exposure, with respect to foreign sales, and higher interest rate exposure, on the basis of industry adjusted leverage, have higher firm value and lower risk. Findings from seemingly unrelated regression also provide robustness to results obtained through panel data analysis. Study also highlights the role of derivative usage as a risk management instrument in high and low ER and IR risk and helps practitioners in understanding how value increasing effect of extent of derivative usage varies with the intensity of firm’s risk exposure.

Keywords: extent of derivative usage, firm value, risk, Pakistan, non-financial firms

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Authors: Abderrahmen Aloulou, Younes Boujelbene

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The current paper displays a new method of extracting information content from options prices by eliminating biases caused by daily variation of contract maturity. Based on Kernel regression tool, this non-parametric technique serves to obtain a spectrum of interpolated options with constant maturity horizons from negotiated optional contracts on the S&P TSX 60 index. This method makes it plausible to compare daily risk neutral densities from which extracting time continuous indicators allows the detection traders attitudes’ evolution, such as, belief homogeneity, asymmetry and extreme Risk Perception. Our findings indicate that the applied method contribute to develop effective trading strategies and to adjust monetary policies through controlling trader’s reactions to economic and monetary news.

Keywords: risk neutral densities, kernel, constant maturity horizons, homogeneity, asymmetry and extreme risk perception

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Authors: Muhammad Fiaz, Muhammad Saqlain, Abid Mahmood, S. M. Saqlan Naqvi, Rizwan Aziz Qazi, Ghazala Kaukab Raja

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Background: Metabolic Syndrome is a clustering of multiple risk factors including central obesity, hypertension, dyslipidemia and hyperglycemia. These risk phenotypes of metabolic syndrome (MetS) prevalent world-wide, Therefore we aimed to identify the frequency of risk phenotypes among metabolic syndrome subjects in local adult Pakistani population. Methods: Screening of subjects visiting out-patient department of medicine, Shaheed Zulfiqar Ali Bhutto Medical University, Islamabad was performed to assess the occurrence of risk phenotypes among MetS subjects in Pakistani population. The Metabolic Syndrome was defined based on International Diabetes Federation (IDF) criteria. Anthropometric and biochemical assay results were recorded. Data was analyzed using SPSS software (16.0). Results: Our results showed that dyslipidemia (31.50%) and hyperglycemia (30.50%) was most population specific risk phenotypes of MetS. The results showed the order of association of metabolic risk phenotypes to MetS as follows hyperglycemia>dyslipidemia>obesity >hypertension. Conclusion: The hyperglycemia and dyslipidemia were found be the major risk phenotypes among the MetS subjects and have greater chances of deceloping MetS among Pakistani Population.

Keywords: dyslipidemia, hypertention, metabolic syndrome, obesity

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Authors: K. Majumdar, S. Datta

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Electricity is recognized as fundamental to industrialization and improving the quality of life of the people. Harnessing the immense untapped hydropower potential in Tripura region opens avenues for growth and provides an opportunity to improve the well-being of the people of the region, while making substantial contribution to the national economy. Gumti hydro power plant generates power to mitigate the crisis of power in Tripura, India. The first unit of hydro power plant (5 MW) was commissioned in June 1976 & another two units of 5 MW was commissioned simultaneously. But out of 15 MW capacity at present only 8-9 MW power is produced from Gumti hydro power plant during rainy season. But during lean season the production reduces to 0.5 MW due to shortage of water. Now, it is essential to implement some mitigation measures so that the further atrocities can be prevented and originality will be possible to restore. The decision making ability of the Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) and Concordance Analysis Techniques (CAT) are utilized to identify the better decision or solution to the present problem. Some related attributes are identified by the method of surveying within the experts and the available reports and literatures. Similar criteria are removed and ultimately seven relevant ones are identified. All the attributes are compared with each other and rated accordingly to their importance over the other with the help of Pair wise Comparison Matrix. In the present investigation different mitigation measures are identified and compared to find the best suitable alternative which can solve the present uncertainties involving the existence of the Gumti Hydro Power Plant.

Keywords: concordance analysis techniques, analytic hierarchy process, hydro power

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Authors: Brennan Lodge

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Amidst a complex regulatory landscape, Retrieval Augmented Generation (RAG) emerges as a transformative tool for Governance Risk and Compliance (GRC) officers. This paper details the application of RAG in synthesizing Large Language Models (LLMs) with external knowledge bases, offering GRC professionals an advanced means to adapt to rapid changes in compliance requirements. While the development for standalone LLM’s (Large Language Models) is exciting, such models do have their downsides. LLM’s cannot easily expand or revise their memory, and they can’t straightforwardly provide insight into their predictions, and may produce “hallucinations.” Leveraging a pre-trained seq2seq transformer and a dense vector index of domain-specific data, this approach integrates real-time data retrieval into the generative process, enabling gap analysis and the dynamic generation of compliance and risk management content. We delve into the mechanics of RAG, focusing on its dual structure that pairs parametric knowledge contained within the transformer model with non-parametric data extracted from an updatable corpus. This hybrid model enhances decision-making through context-rich insights, drawing from the most current and relevant information, thereby enabling GRC officers to maintain a proactive compliance stance. Our methodology aligns with the latest advances in neural network fine-tuning, providing a granular, token-level application of retrieved information to inform and generate compliance narratives. By employing RAG, we exhibit a scalable solution that can adapt to novel regulatory challenges and cybersecurity threats, offering GRC officers a robust, predictive tool that augments their expertise. The granular application of RAG’s dual structure not only improves compliance and risk management protocols but also informs the development of compliance narratives with pinpoint accuracy. It underscores AI’s emerging role in strategic risk mitigation and proactive policy formation, positioning GRC officers to anticipate and navigate the complexities of regulatory evolution confidently.

Keywords: cybersecurity, gen AI, retrieval augmented generation, cybersecurity defense strategies

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Authors: Narissara Nuthammachot, Dimitris Stratoulias

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Fire is one of the main causes of environmental and ecosystem change. Therefore, it is a challenging task for fire risk assessment fire potential mapping. The study area is Hua Sai district, Nakorn Sri Thammarat province, which covers in a part of peat swamp forest areas. 55 fire points in peat swamp areas were reported from 2012 to 2016. Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) and Geographic Information System (GIS) methods were selected for this study. The risk fire area map was arranged on these factors; elevation, slope, aspect, precipitation, distance from the river, distance from town, and land use. The results showed that the predicted fire risk areas are found to be in appreciable reliability with past fire events. The fire risk map can be used for the planning and management of fire areas in the future.

Keywords: analytic hierarchy process, fire risk assessment, geographic information system, peat swamp forest

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Authors: M. Ndaw, G. Mendy, S. Ouya

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Information system risk management helps to reduce or eliminate risk by implementing appropriate controls. In this paper, we propose a quantification model of controls impact on information system risks by automatizing the residual criticality estimation step of FMECA which is based on a inductive reasoning. For this, we defined three equations based on type and maturity of controls. For testing, the values obtained with the model were compared to estimated values given by interlocutors during different working sessions and the result is satisfactory. This model allows an optimal assessment of controls maturity and facilitates risk analysis of information system.

Keywords: information system, risk, control, FMECA method

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Authors: David Nantes, George Gilbert

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There are a lot of risks that might crop up as a tunneling project develops, and it's crucial to be aware of them. Due to the unexpected nature of tunneling projects and the interconnectedness of risk occurrences, the risk assessment approach presents a significant challenge. The purpose of this study is to provide a hybrid FDEMATEL-ANP model to help prioritize risks during tunnel construction projects. The ambiguity in expert judgments and the relative severity of interdependencies across risk occurrences are both taken into consideration by this model, thanks to the Fuzzy Decision-Making Trial and Evaluation Laboratory (FDEMATEL). The Analytic Network Process (ANP) method is used to rank priorities and assess project risks. The authors provide a case study of a subway tunneling construction project to back up the validity of their methodology. The results showed that the proposed method successfully isolated key risk factors and elucidated their interplay in the case study. The proposed method has the potential to become a helpful resource for evaluating dangers associated with tunnel construction projects.

Keywords: risk, prioritization, FDEMATEL, ANP, tunneling construction projects

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Authors: Jie Liu, Wei Wei, Chun-Ping Chang

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Using a sample of 110 countries over the period 1984-2013, this paper examines the impacts of country risks on choosing a specific exchange rate regime (first by utilizing the Levy-Yeyati and Sturzenegger de facto classification and then robusting it by the IMF de jure measurement) relative to other regimes via the panel multinomial logit approach. Empirical findings are as follows. First, in the full samples case we provide evidence that government is more likely to implement a flexible regime, but less likely to adopt a fixed regime, under a low level of composite and financial risk. Second, we find that Eurozone countries are more likely to choose a fixed exchange rate regime with a decrease in the level of country risk and favor a flexible regime in response to a shock from an increase of risk, which is opposite to non-Eurozone countries. Third, we note that high-risk countries are more likely to choose a fixed regime with a low level of composite and political risk in the government, but do not adjust the exchange rate regime as a shock absorber when facing economic and financial risks. It is interesting to see that those countries with relatively low risk display almost opposite results versus high-risk economies. Overall, we believe that it is critically important to account for political economy variables in a government’s exchange rate policy decisions, especially for country risks. All results are robust to the panel ordered probit model.

Keywords: country risk, political economy, exchange rate regimes, shock absorber

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Authors: Jadwiga Królikowska, Andrzej Królikowski, Jarosław Bajer

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The work delineates the threats of maladjustment of the capacity of rain canals, designed and built in the early 20th century, in connection to heavy rainfall, especially in summer. This is the cause of the so called 'urban floods.' It directly relates to fierce raise of paving in the cities. Resolving this problem requires a change in philosophy of draining the rainfall by wider use of retention, infiltration and usage of rainwater. In systemic approach to managing the safety of urban drainage systems the risk, which is directly connected to safety failures, has been accepted as a measure. The risk level defines the probability of occurrence of losses greater than the ones forecast for a given time frame. The procedure of risk modelling, enabling its numeric analysis by using appropriate weights, is a significant issue in this paper.

Keywords: risk management, drainage system, urban areas, urban floods

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Authors: Kitty Kioskli, Nineta Polemi

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Evaluating the levels of cyber-security risks within an enterprise is most important in protecting its information system, services and all its digital assets against security incidents (e.g. accidents, malicious acts, massive cyber-attacks). The existing risk assessment methodologies (e.g. eBIOS, OCTAVE, CRAMM, NIST-800) adopt a technical approach considering as attack factors only the capability, intention and target of the attacker, and not paying attention to the attacker’s psychological profile and personality traits. In this paper, a socio-technical approach is proposed in cyber risk assessment, in order to achieve more realistic risk estimates by considering the personality traits of the attackers. In particular, based upon principles from investigative psychology and behavioural science, a multi-dimensional, extended, quantifiable model for an attacker’s profile is developed, which becomes an additional factor in the cyber risk level calculation.

Keywords: attacker, behavioural models, cyber risk assessment, cybersecurity, human factors, investigative psychology, ISO27001, ISO27005

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Authors: Athul T.

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Kerala cities in India are grappling with an alarming rise in temperatures fueled by the Urban Heat Island (UHI) effect. This phenomenon, exacerbated by rapid urbanization and climate change, poses a significant threat to public health and environmental well-being. In response to this growing concern, this study investigates the potential of urban vegetation as a powerful mitigation strategy against UHI. The study delves into the intricate relationship between micro-climate changes, UHI intensity, and the strategic placement of greenery in alleviating these effects. Utilizing advanced simulation software, the most effective vegetation types and configurations for maximizing UHI reduction will be identified. By analyzing the current state of Kozhikode's urban vegetation and its influence on microclimates, this study aims to tailor actionable strategies for Kerala cities, potentially paving the way for a more sustainable and thermally comfortable urban future.

Keywords: urban heat island, climate change, micro climate, urban vegetation

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Authors: Anita Lazurko, Laszlo Pinter, Jeremy Richardson

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Uncertain climate projections, multiple possible development futures, and a financing gap create challenges for water infrastructure decision making. In contrast to conventional predict-plan-act methods, an emerging decision paradigm that enables social-ecological resilience supports decisions that are appropriate for uncertainty and leverage social, ecological, and economic multifunctionality. Concurrently, water infrastructure project finance plays a powerful role in sustainable infrastructure development but remains disconnected from discourse in socio-ecological resilience. At the time of research, a project to transfer water from Lesotho to Botswana through South Africa in the Orange-Senqu River Basin was at the pre-feasibility stage. This case was analysed through documents and interviews to investigate how uncertainty and multifunctionality are conceptualised and considered in decisions for the resilience of water infrastructure and to explore bridging concepts that might allow project finance to better enable socio-ecological resilience. Interviewees conceptualised uncertainty as risk, ambiguity and ignorance, and multifunctionality as politically-motivated shared benefits. Numerous efforts to adopt emerging decision methods that consider these terms were in use but required compromises to accommodate the persistent, conventional decision paradigm, though a range of future opportunities was identified. Bridging these findings to finance revealed opportunities to consider a more comprehensive scope of risk, to leverage risk mitigation measures, to diffuse risks and benefits over space, time and to diverse actor groups, and to clarify roles to achieve multiple objectives for resilience. In addition to insights into how multiple decision paradigms interact in real-world decision contexts, the research highlights untapped potential at the juncture between socio-ecological resilience and project finance.

Keywords: socio-ecological resilience, finance, multifunctionality, uncertainty

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Authors: Jadwiga Królikowska, Andrzej Królikowski, Jarosław Bajer

Abstract:

The work delineates the threats of maladjustment of the capacity of rain canals, designed and built in the early 20th century, in connection to heavy rainfall, especially in summer. This is the cause of the so called 'urban floods.' It directly relates to fierce raise of paving in the cities. Resolving this problem requires a change in philosophy of draining the rainfall by wider use of retention, infiltration and usage of rainwater. In systemic approach to managing the safety of urban drainage systems the risk, which is directly connected to safety failures, has been accepted as a measure. The risk level defines the probability of occurrence of losses grater than the ones forecast for a given time frame. The procedure of risk modelling, enabling its numeric analysis by using appropriate weights, is a significant issue in this paper.

Keywords: drainage system, urban areas, risk measurement, systemic approach

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Authors: N. W. Paul, M. Banerjee

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Discussing the nexus between global health policy and local practices, this article addresses the recent Ebola outbreak as a role model for narrative co-constructions of epidemic risk. We will demonstrate in how far a theory-driven and methodologically rooted analysis of narrativity can help to improve mechanisms of prevention and intervention whenever epidemic risk needs to be addressed locally in order to contribute to global health. Analyzing the narrative transformation of Ebola, we will also address issues of transcultural problem-solving and of normative questions at stake. In this regard, we seek to contribute to a better understanding of a key question of global health and justice as well as to the underlying ethical questions. By highlighting and analyzing the functions of narratives, this paper provides a translational approach to refine our practices by which we address epidemic risk, be it on the national, the transnational or the global scale.

Keywords: ebola, epidemic risk, medical ethics, medical humanities

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Authors: Alexander J. Severinsky, Allen L. Sessoms

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Atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO₂) has dominated the discussion about the causes of climate change. This is a reflection of the time horizon that has become the norm adopted by the IPCC as the planning horizon. Recently, it has become clear that a 100-year time horizon is much too long, and yet almost all mitigation efforts, including those in the near-term horizon of 30 years, are geared toward it. In this paper, we show that, for a 30-year time horizon, methane (CH₄) is the greenhouse gas whose radiative forcing exceeds that of CO₂. In our analysis, we used radiative forcing of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere since they directly affect the temperature rise on Earth. In 2019, the radiative forcing of methane was ~2.5 W/m² and that of carbon dioxide ~2.1 W/m². Under a business-as-usual (BAU) scenario until 2050, such forcing would be ~2.8 W/m² and ~3.1 W/m², respectively. There is a substantial spread in the data for anthropogenic and natural methane emissions as well as CH₄ leakages from production to consumption. We estimated the minimum and maximum effects of the reduction of these leakages. Such action may reduce the annual radiative forcing of all CH₄ emissions by between ~15% and ~30%. This translates into a reduction of the RF by 2050 from ~2.8 W/m² to ~2.5 W/m² in the case of the minimum effect and to ~2.15 W/m² in the case of the maximum. Under the BAU, we found that the RF of CO₂ would increase from ~2.1 W/m² nowadays to ~3.1 W/m² by 2050. We assumed a reduction of 50% of anthropogenic emission linearly over the next 30 years. That would reduce radiative forcing from ~3.1 W/m² to ~2.9 W/m². In the case of ‘net zero,’ the other 50% of reduction of only anthropogenic emissions would be limited to either from sources of emissions or directly from the atmosphere. The total reduction would be from ~3.1 to ~2.7, or ~0.4 W/m². To achieve the same radiative forcing as in the scenario of maximum reduction of methane leakages of ~2.15 W/m², then an additional reduction of radiative forcing of CO₂ would be approximately 2.7 -2.15=0.55 W/m². This is a much larger value than in expectations from ‘net zero’. In total, one needs to remove from the atmosphere ~660 GT to match the maximum reduction of current methane leakages and ~270 GT to achieve ‘net zero.’ This amounts to over 900 GT in total.

Keywords: methane leakages, methane radiative forcing, methane mitigation, methane net zero

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Authors: Saleh Alzahrani, Halim Boussabaine

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Many of Public Private Partnership (PPP) are developed based on a public project is to be awarded to a private party within a one contractual framework. PPP project risks typically include the development and construction of a new asset as well as its operation. Certainly the most severe consequences of risks through the construction period are price and time overruns. These events are among the most generally used situation in value for money analysis risks. The sources of risk change during the time in PPP project. In traditional procurement, the public sector usually has to cover all prices suffering from these risks. At least there is plenty to suggest that price suffering is a norm in some of the projects that are delivered under traditional procurement. This paper will find the impact of exogenous risk factors into actual construction price into PPP projects. The paper will present a brief literature review on PPP risk pricing strategies and then using system dynamics (SD) to analyses of the risks associated with the estimated project price. Based on the finding from these analyses a risk pricing association model is presented and discussed. The paper concludes with thoughts for future research.

Keywords: public private partnership (PPP), risk, risk pricing, system dynamics (SD)

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Authors: Magid Maatallah

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The problem is, investment management in modern conditions boils down to risk management which is very underdeveloped in Islamic financial theory and practice. Add to this the fact that, in Islamic perception, this is one of the areas of conventional finance in need of drastic reforms. This need was recently underlined by the story of Long Term Capital Management (LTCM ), ( told by Roger Lowenstein in his book, When Genius Failed, Random House, 2000 ). So we face a double challenge, to develop Islamic techniques of risk management and to see that these new techniques are free from the ills with which conventional methods are suffering. This is different from the challenge faced in the middle of twentieth century, to develop a method of financial intermediation free of interest.Risk was always there, especially in business. But industrialization brought risks unknown in trade and agriculture. Industrial production often involves long periods of time .The longer the period of production the more the uncertainty. The scope of the market has expanded to cover the whole world, introducing new kinds of risk. More than a thousand years ago, when Islamic laws were being written, the nature and scope of risk and uncertainty was different. However, something can still be learnt which, in combination with the modern experience, should enable us to realize the Shariah objectives of justice, fairness and efficiency.

Keywords: financial markets, Islamic framework, risk management, investment

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Authors: Hotlan Siagian, Han Tae Hee

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This study aims to examine the effect of supplier trust and top management involvement on the supply chain risk management through buyer-supplier relationship. The population of the research is 44 Korean companies domiciled in East and Central Java of Indonesia. The respondent consists of a top management level from each company. Data collection used a questionnaire designed with five-item Likert scale. Collected data were analyzed using structural equation modeling (SEM) technique with SmartPLS software version 3.0 to examine the hypotheses. The result revealed that supplier trust has an effect on supply chain risk management, top management involvement affects supply chain risk management, supplier trust influences buyer-supplier relationship, top management involvement affects the buyer-supplier relationship, and buyer-supplier relationship affects supply chain risk management. The last finding is that buyer-supplier relationship empirically mediates the effect of supplier trust and top management involvement.

Keywords: buyer supplier relationship, supplier trust, supply chain risk management, top management involvement

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Authors: Haolin Li, Eric Bair, Jane Monaco, Quefeng Li

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The temporomandibular disorder (TMD) is a series of musculoskeletal disorders ranging from jaw pain to chronic debilitating pain, and the risk factors for the onset and maintenance of TMD are still unclear. Prior researches have shown that the potential risk factors for chronic TMD are related to psychosocial factors, autonomic functions, and pain sensitivity. Using data from the Orofacial Pain: Prospective Evaluation and Risk Assessment (OPPERA) study’s baseline case-control study, we examine whether the risk factors identified by prior researches are still statistically significant after taking all of the risk measures into account in one single model, and we also compare the relative influences of the risk factors in three different perspectives (psychosocial factors, autonomic functions, and pain sensitivity) on the chronic TMD. The statistical analysis is conducted by using ridge logistic regression and bootstrapping, in which the performance of the algorithms has been assessed using extensive simulation studies. The results support most of the findings of prior researches that there are many psychosocial and pain sensitivity measures that have significant associations with chronic TMD. However, it is surprising that most of the risk factors of autonomic functions have not presented significant associations with chronic TMD, as described by a prior research.

Keywords: autonomic function, OPPERA study, pain sensitivity, psychosocial measures, temporomandibular disorder

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Authors: Eva L. Suarez, Daniel E. Meeroff, Yan Yong

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The U.S. Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA) developed flood maps based on experts’ experience and estimates of the probability of flooding. Current flood-risk models evaluate flood risk with regional and subjective measures without impact from torrential rain and nuisance flooding at the neighborhood level. Nuisance flooding occurs in small areas in the community, where a few streets or blocks are routinely impacted. This type of flooding event occurs when torrential rainstorm combined with high tide and sea level rise temporarily exceeds a given threshold. In South Florida, this threshold is 1.7 ft above Mean Higher High Water (MHHW). The National Weather Service defines torrential rain as rain deposition at a rate greater than 0.3-inches per hour or three inches in a single day. Data from the Florida Climate Center, 1970 to 2020, shows 371 events with more than 3-inches of rain in a day in 612 months. The purpose of this research is to develop a data-driven method to determine comprehensive analytical damage-avoidance criteria that account for nuisance flood events at the single-family home level. The method developed uses the Failure Mode and Effect Analysis (FMEA) method from the American Society of Quality (ASQ) to estimate the Damage Avoidance (DA) preparation for a 1-day 100-year storm. The Consequence of Nuisance Flooding (CoNF) is estimated from community mitigation efforts to prevent nuisance flooding damage. The Probability of Nuisance Flooding (PoNF) is derived from the frequency and duration of torrential rainfall causing delays and community disruptions to daily transportation, human illnesses, and property damage. Urbanization and population changes are related to the U.S. Census Bureau's annual population estimates. Data collected by the United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) Natural Resources Conservation Service’s National Resources Inventory (NRI) and locally by the South Florida Water Management District (SFWMD) track the development and land use/land cover changes with time. The intent is to include temporal trends in population density growth and the impact on land development. Results from this investigation provide the risk of nuisance flooding as a function of CoNF and PoNF for coastal areas of South Florida. The data-based criterion provides awareness to local municipalities on their flood-risk assessment and gives insight into flood management actions and watershed development.

Keywords: flood risk, nuisance flooding, urban flooding, FMEA

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Authors: Ruchi Agarwal

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In today’s world, companies are operating in dynamic, uncertain and ambiguous business environments. Globally, more companies are failing due to Environmental, Social and Governance (ESG) factors than ever. Corporate governance and risk management are intertwined in nature. For decades, corporate governance and risk management have been influenced by internal and external factors. Three schools of thought have influenced risk governance for decades: Agency theory, Contingency theory, and Institutional theory. Agency theory argues that agents have interests conflicting with principal interests and the information problem. Contingency theory suggests that risk management adoption is influenced by internal and external factors, while Institutional theory suggests that organizations legitimize risk management with regulators, competitors, and professional bodies. The conflicting objectives of theories have created problems for executives in organizations in the adoption of Risk Governance. So far, there are many studies that discussed risk culture and the role of actors in risk governance, but there are rare studies discussing the role of risk culture in the adoption of risk governance from a leadership style perspective. This study explores the adoption of risk governance in two contrasting industries, such as the Insurance and energy business, to understand whether risk governance is influenced by internal/external factors or whether risk culture is influenced by leaders. We draw empirical evidence by comparing the cases of an Indian insurance company and a renewable energy-based firm in India. We interviewed more than 20 senior executives of companies and collected annual reports, risk management policies, and more than 10 PPTs and other reports from 2017 to 2024. We visited the company for follow-up questions several times. The findings of my research revealed that both companies have used risk governance for strategic renewal of the company. Insurance companies use a transactional leadership style based on performance and reward for improving risk, while energy companies use rather symbolic management to make debt restructuring meaningful for stakeholders. Overall, both companies turned from loss-making to profitable ones in a few years. This comparative study highlights the role of different leadership styles in the adoption of risk governance. The study is also distinct as previous research rarely studied risk governance in two contrasting industries in reference to leadership styles.

Keywords: leadership style, corporate governance, risk management, risk culture, strategic renewal

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Authors: Ernest Tambo, Ghislaine Madjou, Jeanne Y. Ngogang, Shenglan Tang, Zhou XiaoNong

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Implementing national to community-based 'One Health' surveillance approach for human, animal and environmental consequences mitigation offers great opportunities and value-added in sustainable development and wellbeing. 'One Health' surveillance approach global partnerships, policy commitment and financial investment are much needed in addressing the evolving threats and epidemics crises mitigation in African countries. The paper provides insights onto how China-Africa health development cooperation in promoting “One Health” surveillance approach in response advocacy and mitigation. China-Africa health development initiatives provide new prospects in guiding and moving forward appropriate and evidence-based advocacy and mitigation management approaches and strategies in attaining Universal Health Coverage (UHC) and Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs). Early and continuous quality and timely surveillance data collection and coordinated information sharing practices in malaria and other diseases are demonstrated in Comoros, Zanzibar, Ghana and Cameroon. Improvements of variety of access to contextual sources and network of data sharing platforms are needed in guiding evidence-based and tailored detection and response to unusual hazardous events. Moreover, understanding threats and diseases trends, frontline or point of care response delivery is crucial to promote integrated and sustainable targeted local, national “One Health” surveillance and response approach needs implementation. Importantly, operational guidelines are vital in increasing coherent financing and national workforce capacity development mechanisms. Strengthening participatory partnerships, collaboration and monitoring strategies in achieving global health agenda effectiveness in Africa. At the same enhancing surveillance data information streams reporting and dissemination usefulness in informing policies decisions, health systems programming and financial mobilization and prioritized allocation pre, during and post threats and epidemics crises programs strengths and weaknesses. Thus, capitalizing on “One Health” surveillance and response approach advocacy and mitigation implementation is timely in consolidating Africa Union 2063 agenda and Africa renaissance capabilities and expectations.

Keywords: Africa, one health approach, surveillance, response

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Authors: Samuel Capintero, Ole H. Petersen

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This paper examines the utilization of public-private partnerships for the building and operation of wastewater treatment plants. Our research focuses on risk allocation in this kind of projects. Our analysis builds on more than hundred wastewater treatment plants built and operated through PPP projects in Aragon (Spain). The paper illustrates the consequences of an inadequate management of construction risk and an unsuitable transfer of demand risk in wastewater treatment plants. It also shows that the involvement of many public bodies at local, regional and national level further increases the complexity of this kind of projects and make time delays more likely.

Keywords: wastewater, treatment plants, PPP, construction

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Authors: Iqbal Pramukti, Mamat Lukman, Hasniatisari Harun, Kusman Ibrahim

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Introduction: People living with HIV had a higher risk of osteoporotic fracture than the general population. The purpose of this study was to predict the 10-year risk of fracture among people living with HIV (PLWH) using FRAX™ and to identify characteristics related to the fracture risk. Methodology: This study consisted of 75 subjects. The ten-year probability of major osteoporotic fractures (MOF) and hip fractures was assessed using the FRAX™ algorithm. A cross-tabulation was used to identify the participant’s characteristics related to fracture risk. Results: The overall mean 10-year probability of fracture was 2.4% (1.7) for MOF and 0.4% (0.3) for hip fractures. For MOF score, participants with parents’ hip fracture history, smoking behavior and glucocorticoid use showed a higher MOF score than those who were not (3.1 vs. 2.5; 4.6 vs 2.5; and 3.4 vs 2.5, respectively). For HF score, participants with parents’ hip fracture history, smoking behavior and glucocorticoid use also showed a higher HF score than those who were not (0.5 vs. 0.3; 0.8 vs. 0.3; and 0.5 vs. 0.3, respectively). Conclusions: The 10-year risk of fracture was higher among PLWH with several factors, including the parent’s hip. Fracture history, smoking behavior and glucocorticoid used. Further analysis on determining factors using multivariate regression analysis with a larger sample size is required to confirm the factors associated with the high fracture risk.

Keywords: HIV, PLWH, osteoporotic fractures, hip fractures, 10-year risk of fracture, FRAX

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Authors: Pitsanu Tongkhow, Pichet Jiraprasertwong

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This research investigates risk factors for defective products in autoparts factories. Under a Bayesian framework, a generalized linear mixed model (GLMM) in which the dependent variable, the number of defective products, has a Poisson distribution is adopted. Its performance is compared with the Poisson GLM under a Bayesian framework. The factors considered are production process, machines, and workers. The products coded RT50 are observed. The study found that the Poisson GLMM is more appropriate than the Poisson GLM. For the production Process factor, the highest risk of producing defective products is Process 1, for the Machine factor, the highest risk is Machine 5, and for the Worker factor, the highest risk is Worker 6.

Keywords: defective autoparts products, Bayesian framework, generalized linear mixed model (GLMM), risk factors

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Authors: Jorge M. Uribe

Abstract:

We propose a methodology for setting the price of an insurance contract targeted to manage the risk associated with weather conditions that affect variable renewable energy generation. The methodology relies on conditional quantile regressions to estimate the weather risk of a solar panel. It is illustrated using real daily radiation and weather data for three cities in Spain (Valencia, Barcelona and Madrid) from February 2/2004 to January 22/2019. We also adapt the concepts of value at risk and expected short fall from finance to this context, to provide a complete panorama of what we label as weather risk. The methodology is easy to implement and can be used by insurance companies to price a contract with the aforementioned characteristics when data about similar projects and accurate cash flow projections are lacking. Our methodology assigns a higher price to an insurance product with the stated characteristics in Madrid, compared to Valencia and Barcelona. This is consistent with Madrid showing the largest interquartile range of operational deficits and it is unrelated to the average value deficit, which illustrates the importance of our proposal.

Keywords: insurance, weather, vre, risk

Procedia PDF Downloads 124

Authors: Jin Sheng

Abstract:

This paper addresses a promising area of insurance sector to develop in Asia. Captive insurance, which provides risk-mitigation services for its parent company, has great potentials to develop in energy, infrastructure, agriculture, logistics, catastrophe, and alternative risk transfer (ART), and will greatly affect the framework of insurance industry. However, the Asian captive insurance market only takes a small proportion in the global market. The recent supply chain interruption case of Hanjin Shipping indicates the significance of risk management for an Asian company’s sustainability and resilience. China has substantial needs and great potentials to develop captive insurance, on account of the currency volatility, enterprises’ credit risks, and legal and operational risks of the Belt and Road initiative. Up to date, Mainland Chinese enterprises only have four offshore captives incorporated by CNOOC, Sinopec, Lenovo and CGN Power), three onshore captive insurance companies incorporated by CNPC, China Railway, and COSCO, as well as one industrial captive insurance organization - China Ship-owners Mutual Assurance Association. Its captive market grows slowly with one or two captive insurers licensed yearly after September 2011. As an international financial center, Hong Kong has comparative advantages in taxation, professionals, market access and well-established financial infrastructure to develop a functional captive insurance market. For example, Hong Kong’s income tax for an insurance company is 16.5%; while China's income tax for an insurance company is 25% plus business tax of 5%. Furthermore, restrictions on market entry and operations of China’s onshore captives make establishing offshore captives in international or regional captive insurance centers such as Singapore, Hong Kong, and other overseas jurisdictions to become attractive options. Thus, there are abundant business opportunities in this area. Using methodology of comparative studies and case analysis, this paper discusses the incorporation, regulatory issues, taxation and prospect of captive insurance market in Hong Kong, China and Singapore. Hong Kong and Singapore are both international financial centers with prominent advantages in tax concessions, technology, implementation, professional services, and well-functioning legal system. Singapore, as the domicile of 71 active captives, has been the largest captive insurance hub in Asia, as well as an established reinsurance hub. Hong Kong is an emerging captive insurance hub with 5 to 10 newly licensed captives each year, according to the Hong Kong Financial Services Development Council. It is predicted that Hong Kong will become a domicile for 50 captive insurers by 2025. This paper also compares the formation of a captive in Singapore with other jurisdictions such as Bermuda and Vermont.

Keywords: Alternative Risk Transfer (ART), captive insurance company, offshore captives, risk management, reinsurance, self-insurance fund

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Authors: Abderrazek Ben Maatoug, Ibrahim Fatnassi, Wassim Ben Ayed

Abstract:

In this paper we investigate the issue of market risk quantification for Middle East and North Africa (MENA) Islamic market equity. We use Value-at-Risk (VaR) as a measure of potential risk in Islamic stock market, for long and short position, based on Riskmetrics model and the conditional parametric ARCH class model volatility with normal, student and skewed student distribution. The sample consist of daily data for the 2006-2014 of 11 Islamic stock markets indices. We conduct Kupiec and Engle and Manganelli tests to evaluate the performance for each model. The main finding of our empirical results show that (i) the superior performance of VaR models based on the Student and skewed Student distribution, for the significance level of α=1% , for all Islamic stock market indices, and for both long and short trading positions (ii) Risk Metrics model, and VaR model based on conditional volatility with normal distribution provides the best accurate VaR estimations for both long and short trading positions for a significance level of α=5%.

Keywords: value-at-risk, risk management, islamic finance, GARCH models

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Authors: Seung Hun Lee, Sang Yeoup Lee

Abstract:

Objectives: To investigate associations between degrees of obesity using correlations between obesity indices and cardiometabolic risk factors. Methods: BMI, waist circumference (WC), fasting insulin, fasting glucose, lipids, and visceral adipose tissue (VAT) area using computed tomographic images were measured in 113 obese female without cardiovascular disease (CVD). Correlations between obesity indices and cardiometabolic risk factors were analyzed in obese subgroups defined using sequential obesity indices. Results: Mean BMI and WC were 29.6 kg/m2 and 92.8 cm. BMI showed significant correlations with all five cardiometabolic risk factors until the BMI cut-off point reached 27 kg/m2, but when it exceeded 30 kg/m2, correlations no longer existed. WC was significantly correlated with all five cardiometabolic risk factors up to a value of 85 cm, but when WC exceeded 90 cm, correlations no longer existed. Conclusions: Our data suggest that moderate weight-loss goals may not be enough to ameliorate cardiometabolic markers in severely obese patients. Therefore, individualized weight-loss goals should be recommended to such patients to improve health benefits.

Keywords: correlation, cardiovascular disease, risk factors, obesity

Procedia PDF Downloads 330