Search results for: prediction interval
Commenced in January 2007
Frequency: Monthly
Edition: International
Paper Count: 3045

Search results for: prediction interval

2745 The Study of Impact Continuous and High-Intensity Interval Training on Some of Spirometry Indices Following in Young Non-Athletic Men

Authors: Mohsen Ghanbarzadeh

Abstract:

Context: The study examines the impact of continuous and high-intensity interval training on spirometry indices in young non-athletic men, focusing on respiratory inflammation post-exercise. Research Aim: To investigate the effect of intense aerobic interval exercise on pulmonary indices in non-athletes, specifically exploring respiratory inflammation. Methodology: Semi-experimental design with random subject selection and spirometer measurements pre and post intense aerobic exercise. Findings: Spirometry indices decreased post-acute aerobic exercise, indicating potential temporary inflammation in the respiratory tract, likely due to tracheal inflammation causing air flow restriction. Theoretical Importance: The study sheds light on the temporary impact of intense aerobic exercise on respiratory function, highlighting the relationship between exercise intensity and pulmonary indices. Data Collection: Spirometry indices (VC, FVC, FEV1) were measured before and after exercise in 30 young male participants. Analysis Procedures: Statistical analysis showed a non-significant decrease in spirometry indices post-exercise, with p-values indicating no significant differences. Questions Addressed: The study addressed whether intense aerobic exercise leads to respiratory inflammation and the subsequent impact on pulmonary indices in non-athletes. Conclusion: Intense aerobic exercise can lead to temporary respiratory inflammation, reflected in decreased spirometry indices, which normalize after rest. The study adds insights into the effects of intense aerobic exercise on pulmonary function in non-athletes. To enhance the methodology, considering a larger sample size and longer follow-up period could provide more robust findings.

Keywords: HIIT, spirometric, training, non-athletic

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2744 Assessment of Modern RANS Models for the C3X Vane Film Cooling Prediction

Authors: Mikhail Gritskevich, Sebastian Hohenstein

Abstract:

The paper presents the results of a detailed assessment of several modern Reynolds Averaged Navier-Stokes (RANS) turbulence models for prediction of C3X vane film cooling at various injection regimes. Three models are considered, namely the Shear Stress Transport (SST) model, the modification of the SST model accounting for the streamlines curvature (SST-CC), and the Explicit Algebraic Reynolds Stress Model (EARSM). It is shown that all the considered models face with a problem in prediction of the adiabatic effectiveness in the vicinity of the cooling holes; however, accounting for the Reynolds stress anisotropy within the EARSM model noticeably increases the solution accuracy. On the other hand, further downstream all the models provide a reasonable agreement with the experimental data for the adiabatic effectiveness and among the considered models the most accurate results are obtained with the use EARMS.

Keywords: discrete holes film cooling, Reynolds Averaged Navier-Stokes (RANS), Reynolds stress tensor anisotropy, turbulent heat transfer

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2743 A Novel Approach of NPSO on Flexible Logistic (S-Shaped) Model for Software Reliability Prediction

Authors: Pooja Rani, G. S. Mahapatra, S. K. Pandey

Abstract:

In this paper, we propose a novel approach of Neural Network and Particle Swarm Optimization methods for software reliability prediction. We first explain how to apply compound function in neural network so that we can derive a Flexible Logistic (S-shaped) Growth Curve (FLGC) model. This model mathematically represents software failure as a random process and can be used to evaluate software development status during testing. To avoid trapping in local minima, we have applied Particle Swarm Optimization method to train proposed model using failure test data sets. We drive our proposed model using computational based intelligence modeling. Thus, proposed model becomes Neuro-Particle Swarm Optimization (NPSO) model. We do test result with different inertia weight to update particle and update velocity. We obtain result based on best inertia weight compare along with Personal based oriented PSO (pPSO) help to choose local best in network neighborhood. The applicability of proposed model is demonstrated through real time test data failure set. The results obtained from experiments show that the proposed model has a fairly accurate prediction capability in software reliability.

Keywords: software reliability, flexible logistic growth curve model, software cumulative failure prediction, neural network, particle swarm optimization

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2742 A Time Delay Neural Network for Prediction of Human Behavior

Authors: A. Hakimiyan, H. Namazi

Abstract:

Human behavior is defined as a range of behaviors exhibited by humans who are influenced by different internal or external sources. Human behavior is the subject of much research in different areas of psychology and neuroscience. Despite some advances in studies related to forecasting of human behavior, there are not many researches which consider the effect of the time delay between the presence of stimulus and the related human response. Analysis of EEG signal as a fractal time series is one of the major tools for studying the human behavior. In the other words, the human brain activity is reflected in his EEG signal. Artificial Neural Network has been proved useful in forecasting of different systems’ behavior especially in engineering areas. In this research, a time delay neural network is trained and tested in order to forecast the human EEG signal and subsequently human behavior. This neural network, by introducing a time delay, takes care of the lagging time between the occurrence of the stimulus and the rise of the subsequent action potential. The results of this study are useful not only for the fundamental understanding of human behavior forecasting, but shall be very useful in different areas of brain research such as seizure prediction.

Keywords: human behavior, EEG signal, time delay neural network, prediction, lagging time

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2741 A Novel Meta-Heuristic Algorithm Based on Cloud Theory for Redundancy Allocation Problem under Realistic Condition

Authors: H. Mousavi, M. Sharifi, H. Pourvaziri

Abstract:

Redundancy Allocation Problem (RAP) is a well-known mathematical problem for modeling series-parallel systems. It is a combinatorial optimization problem which focuses on determining an optimal assignment of components in a system design. In this paper, to be more practical, we have considered the problem of redundancy allocation of series system with interval valued reliability of components. Therefore, during the search process, the reliabilities of the components are considered as a stochastic variable with a lower and upper bounds. In order to optimize the problem, we proposed a simulated annealing based on cloud theory (CBSAA). Also, the Monte Carlo simulation (MCS) is embedded to the CBSAA to handle the random variable components’ reliability. This novel approach has been investigated by numerical examples and the experimental results have shown that the CBSAA combining MCS is an efficient tool to solve the RAP of systems with interval-valued component reliabilities.

Keywords: redundancy allocation problem, simulated annealing, cloud theory, monte carlo simulation

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2740 Machine Learning Approach for Yield Prediction in Semiconductor Production

Authors: Heramb Somthankar, Anujoy Chakraborty

Abstract:

This paper presents a classification study on yield prediction in semiconductor production using machine learning approaches. A complicated semiconductor production process is generally monitored continuously by signals acquired from sensors and measurement sites. A monitoring system contains a variety of signals, all of which contain useful information, irrelevant information, and noise. In the case of each signal being considered a feature, "Feature Selection" is used to find the most relevant signals. The open-source UCI SECOM Dataset provides 1567 such samples, out of which 104 fail in quality assurance. Feature extraction and selection are performed on the dataset, and useful signals were considered for further study. Afterward, common machine learning algorithms were employed to predict whether the signal yields pass or fail. The most relevant algorithm is selected for prediction based on the accuracy and loss of the ML model.

Keywords: deep learning, feature extraction, feature selection, machine learning classification algorithms, semiconductor production monitoring, signal processing, time-series analysis

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2739 Prediction of California Bearing Ratio from Physical Properties of Fine-Grained Soils

Authors: Bao Thach Nguyen, Abbas Mohajerani

Abstract:

The California bearing ratio (CBR) has been acknowledged as an important parameter to characterize the bearing capacity of earth structures, such as earth dams, road embankments, airport runways, bridge abutments, and pavements. Technically, the CBR test can be carried out in the laboratory or in the field. The CBR test is time-consuming and is infrequently performed due to the equipment needed and the fact that the field moisture content keeps changing over time. Over the years, many correlations have been developed for the prediction of CBR by various researchers, including the dynamic cone penetrometer, undrained shear strength, and Clegg impact hammer. This paper reports and discusses some of the results from a study on the prediction of CBR. In the current study, the CBR test was performed in the laboratory on some fine-grained subgrade soils collected from various locations in Victoria. Based on the test results, a satisfactory empirical correlation was found between the CBR and the physical properties of the experimental soils.

Keywords: California bearing ratio, fine-grained soils, soil physical properties, pavement, soil test

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2738 Predicting Match Outcomes in Team Sport via Machine Learning: Evidence from National Basketball Association

Authors: Jacky Liu

Abstract:

This paper develops a team sports outcome prediction system with potential for wide-ranging applications across various disciplines. Despite significant advancements in predictive analytics, existing studies in sports outcome predictions possess considerable limitations, including insufficient feature engineering and underutilization of advanced machine learning techniques, among others. To address these issues, we extend the Sports Cross Industry Standard Process for Data Mining (SRP-CRISP-DM) framework and propose a unique, comprehensive predictive system, using National Basketball Association (NBA) data as an example to test this extended framework. Our approach follows a holistic methodology in feature engineering, employing both Time Series and Non-Time Series Data, as well as conducting Explanatory Data Analysis and Feature Selection. Furthermore, we contribute to the discourse on target variable choice in team sports outcome prediction, asserting that point spread prediction yields higher profits as opposed to game-winner predictions. Using machine learning algorithms, particularly XGBoost, results in a significant improvement in predictive accuracy of team sports outcomes. Applied to point spread betting strategies, it offers an astounding annual return of approximately 900% on an initial investment of $100. Our findings not only contribute to academic literature, but have critical practical implications for sports betting. Our study advances the understanding of team sports outcome prediction a burgeoning are in complex system predictions and pave the way for potential profitability and more informed decision making in sports betting markets.

Keywords: machine learning, team sports, game outcome prediction, sports betting, profits simulation

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2737 Experimental Study and Neural Network Modeling in Prediction of Surface Roughness on Dry Turning Using Two Different Cutting Tool Nose Radii

Authors: Deba Kumar Sarma, Sanjib Kr. Rajbongshi

Abstract:

Surface finish is an important product quality in machining. At first, experiments were carried out to investigate the effect of the cutting tool nose radius (considering 1mm and 0.65mm) in prediction of surface finish with process parameters of cutting speed, feed and depth of cut. For all possible cutting conditions, full factorial design was considered as two levels four parameters. Commercial Mild Steel bar and High Speed Steel (HSS) material were considered as work-piece and cutting tool material respectively. In order to obtain functional relationship between process parameters and surface roughness, neural network was used which was found to be capable for the prediction of surface roughness within a reasonable degree of accuracy. It was observed that tool nose radius of 1mm provides better surface finish in comparison to 0.65 mm. Also, it was observed that feed rate has a significant influence on surface finish.

Keywords: full factorial design, neural network, nose radius, surface finish

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2736 Research on the Aero-Heating Prediction Based on Hybrid Meshes and Hybrid Schemes

Authors: Qiming Zhang, Youda Ye, Qinxue Jiang

Abstract:

Accurate prediction of external flowfield and aero-heating at the wall of hypersonic vehicle is very crucial for the design of aircrafts. Unstructured/hybrid meshes have more powerful advantages than structured meshes in terms of pre-processing, parallel computing and mesh adaptation, so it is imperative to develop high-resolution numerical methods for the calculation of aerothermal environment on unstructured/hybrid meshes. The inviscid flux scheme is one of the most important factors affecting the accuracy of unstructured/ hybrid mesh heat flux calculation. Here, a new hybrid flux scheme is developed and the approach of interface type selection is proposed: i.e. 1) using the exact Riemann scheme solution to calculate the flux on the faces parallel to the wall; 2) employing Sterger-Warming (S-W) scheme to improve the stability of the numerical scheme in other interfaces. The results of the heat flux fit the one observed experimentally and have little dependence on grids, which show great application prospect in unstructured/ hybrid mesh.

Keywords: aero-heating prediction, computational fluid dynamics, hybrid meshes, hybrid schemes

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2735 Comparison of Cardiovascular and Metabolic Responses Following In-Water and On-Land Jump in Postmenopausal Women

Authors: Kuei-Yu Chien, Nai-Wen Kan, Wan-Chun Wu, Guo-Dong Ma, Shu-Chen Chen

Abstract:

Purpose: The purpose of this study was to investigate the responses of systolic blood pressure (SBP), diastolic blood pressure (DBP), heart rate (HR), rating of perceived exertion (RPE) and lactate following continued high-intensity interval exercise in water and on land. The results of studies can be an exercise program design reference for health care and fitness professionals. Method: A total of 20 volunteer postmenopausal women was included in this study. The inclusion criteria were: duration of menopause > 1 year; and sedentary lifestyle, defined as engaging in moderate-intensity exercise less than three times per week, or less than 20 minutes per day. Participants need to visit experimental place three times. The first time visiting, body composition was performed and participant filled out the questionnaire. Participants were assigned randomly to the exercise environment (water or land) in second and third time visiting. Water exercise testing was under water of trochanter level. In continuing jump testing, each movement consisted 10-second maximum volunteer jump for two sets. 50% heart rate reserve dynamic resting (walking or running) for one minute was within each set. SBP, DBP, HR, RPE of whole body/thigh (RPEW/RPET) and lactate were performed at pre and post testing. HR, RPEW, and RPET were monitored after 1, 2, and 10 min of exercise testing. SBP and DBP were performed after 10 and 30 min of exercise testing. Results: The responses of SBP and DBP after exercise testing in water were higher than those on land. Lactate levels after exercise testing in water were lower than those on land. The responses of RPET were lower than those on land post exercise 1 and 2 minutes. The heart rate recovery in water was faster than those on land at post exercise 5 minutes. Conclusion: This study showed water interval jump exercise induces higher cardiovascular responses with lower RPE responses and lactate levels than on-land jumps exercise in postmenopausal women. Fatigue is one of the major reasons to obstruct exercise behavior. Jump exercise could enhance cardiorespiratory fitness, the lower-extremity power, strength, and bone mass. There are several health benefits to the middle to older adults. This study showed that water interval jumping could be more relaxed and not tried to reach the same land-based cardiorespiratory exercise intensity.

Keywords: interval exercise, power, recovery, fatigue

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2734 Prediction of Welding Induced Distortion in Thin Metal Plates Using Temperature Dependent Material Properties and FEA

Authors: Rehan Waheed, Abdul Shakoor

Abstract:

Distortion produced during welding of thin metal plates is a problem in many industries. The purpose of this research was to study distortion produced during welding in 2mm Mild Steel plate by simulating the welding process using Finite Element Analysis. Simulation of welding process requires a couple field transient analyses. At first a transient thermal analysis is performed and the temperature obtained from thermal analysis is used as input in structural analysis to find distortion. An actual weld sample is prepared and the weld distortion produced is measured. The simulated and actual results were in quite agreement with each other and it has been found that there is profound deflection at center of plate. Temperature dependent material properties play significant role in prediction of weld distortion. The results of this research can be used for prediction and control of weld distortion in large steel structures by changing different weld parameters.

Keywords: welding simulation, FEA, welding distortion, temperature dependent mechanical properties

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2733 Multiclass Support Vector Machines with Simultaneous Multi-Factors Optimization for Corporate Credit Ratings

Authors: Hyunchul Ahn, William X. S. Wong

Abstract:

Corporate credit rating prediction is one of the most important topics, which has been studied by researchers in the last decade. Over the last decade, researchers are pushing the limit to enhance the exactness of the corporate credit rating prediction model by applying several data-driven tools including statistical and artificial intelligence methods. Among them, multiclass support vector machine (MSVM) has been widely applied due to its good predictability. However, heuristics, for example, parameters of a kernel function, appropriate feature and instance subset, has become the main reason for the critics on MSVM, as they have dictate the MSVM architectural variables. This study presents a hybrid MSVM model that is intended to optimize all the parameter such as feature selection, instance selection, and kernel parameter. Our model adopts genetic algorithm (GA) to simultaneously optimize multiple heterogeneous design factors of MSVM.

Keywords: corporate credit rating prediction, Feature selection, genetic algorithms, instance selection, multiclass support vector machines

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2732 Reliability-Simulation of Composite Tubular Structure under Pressure by Finite Elements Methods

Authors: Abdelkader Hocine, Abdelhakim Maizia

Abstract:

The exponential growth of reinforced fibers composite materials use has prompted researchers to step up their work on the prediction of their reliability. Owing to differences between the properties of the materials used for the composite, the manufacturing processes, the load combinations and types of environment, the prediction of the reliability of composite materials has become a primary task. Through failure criteria, TSAI-WU and the maximum stress, the reliability of multilayer tubular structures under pressure is the subject of this paper, where the failure probability of is estimated by the method of Monte Carlo.

Keywords: composite, design, monte carlo, tubular structure, reliability

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2731 Drug-Drug Interaction Prediction in Diabetes Mellitus

Authors: Rashini Maduka, C. R. Wijesinghe, A. R. Weerasinghe

Abstract:

Drug-drug interactions (DDIs) can happen when two or more drugs are taken together. Today DDIs have become a serious health issue due to adverse drug effects. In vivo and in vitro methods for identifying DDIs are time-consuming and costly. Therefore, in-silico-based approaches are preferred in DDI identification. Most machine learning models for DDI prediction are used chemical and biological drug properties as features. However, some drug features are not available and costly to extract. Therefore, it is better to make automatic feature engineering. Furthermore, people who have diabetes already suffer from other diseases and take more than one medicine together. Then adverse drug effects may happen to diabetic patients and cause unpleasant reactions in the body. In this study, we present a model with a graph convolutional autoencoder and a graph decoder using a dataset from DrugBank version 5.1.3. The main objective of the model is to identify unknown interactions between antidiabetic drugs and the drugs taken by diabetic patients for other diseases. We considered automatic feature engineering and used Known DDIs only as the input for the model. Our model has achieved 0.86 in AUC and 0.86 in AP.

Keywords: drug-drug interaction prediction, graph embedding, graph convolutional networks, adverse drug effects

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2730 Machine Learning for Disease Prediction Using Symptoms and X-Ray Images

Authors: Ravija Gunawardana, Banuka Athuraliya

Abstract:

Machine learning has emerged as a powerful tool for disease diagnosis and prediction. The use of machine learning algorithms has the potential to improve the accuracy of disease prediction, thereby enabling medical professionals to provide more effective and personalized treatments. This study focuses on developing a machine-learning model for disease prediction using symptoms and X-ray images. The importance of this study lies in its potential to assist medical professionals in accurately diagnosing diseases, thereby improving patient outcomes. Respiratory diseases are a significant cause of morbidity and mortality worldwide, and chest X-rays are commonly used in the diagnosis of these diseases. However, accurately interpreting X-ray images requires significant expertise and can be time-consuming, making it difficult to diagnose respiratory diseases in a timely manner. By incorporating machine learning algorithms, we can significantly enhance disease prediction accuracy, ultimately leading to better patient care. The study utilized the Mask R-CNN algorithm, which is a state-of-the-art method for object detection and segmentation in images, to process chest X-ray images. The model was trained and tested on a large dataset of patient information, which included both symptom data and X-ray images. The performance of the model was evaluated using a range of metrics, including accuracy, precision, recall, and F1-score. The results showed that the model achieved an accuracy rate of over 90%, indicating that it was able to accurately detect and segment regions of interest in the X-ray images. In addition to X-ray images, the study also incorporated symptoms as input data for disease prediction. The study used three different classifiers, namely Random Forest, K-Nearest Neighbor and Support Vector Machine, to predict diseases based on symptoms. These classifiers were trained and tested using the same dataset of patient information as the X-ray model. The results showed promising accuracy rates for predicting diseases using symptoms, with the ensemble learning techniques significantly improving the accuracy of disease prediction. The study's findings indicate that the use of machine learning algorithms can significantly enhance disease prediction accuracy, ultimately leading to better patient care. The model developed in this study has the potential to assist medical professionals in diagnosing respiratory diseases more accurately and efficiently. However, it is important to note that the accuracy of the model can be affected by several factors, including the quality of the X-ray images, the size of the dataset used for training, and the complexity of the disease being diagnosed. In conclusion, the study demonstrated the potential of machine learning algorithms for disease prediction using symptoms and X-ray images. The use of these algorithms can improve the accuracy of disease diagnosis, ultimately leading to better patient care. Further research is needed to validate the model's accuracy and effectiveness in a clinical setting and to expand its application to other diseases.

Keywords: K-nearest neighbor, mask R-CNN, random forest, support vector machine

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2729 Middle Ordovician (Llanvirnian) Relative Sea-Level Fluctuations

Authors: Ying Jia Teoh

Abstract:

The Canning Basin is located between the Kimberley and Pilbara Precambrian cratonic blocks. It is a large but relatively poorly explored Paleozoic basin in remote Western Australia. During the early Ordovician period, the Australian continent was located near the equator. Middle Ordovician age Nita and Goldwyer Formations in Canning Basin are therefore warm water carbonates. The Nita Formation carbonates are a regressive sequence which conformably overlies the Goldwyer Formation. It contains numerous progradational cycles of limestone, vuggy dolomitized carbonate beds and shale deposited in subtidal to supratidal environments. The Goldwyer Formation contains transgressive shale sequences and regressive carbonates deposited in shallow subtidal conditions. The shales contain oil-prone Gloeocapsormorpha prisca-bearing source rocks. Llanvirnian relative sea-level fluctuations were reconstructed by using Fischer plots methodology for three key wells (wells McLarty 1, Looma 1 and Robert 1) in Broome Platform and compared with INPEFA data. The Goldwyer lower shale (interval Or1000P) shows increasing relative sea-level and this matches with a transgressive systems tract. Goldwyer middle carbonate (interval Or2000) shows relative sea-level drop and this matches with a regressive systems tract. Goldwyer upper shale (interval Or2000P) shows relative sea-level drop and this matches with a transgressive systems tract. Nita Formation Leo Member (interval Or3000) shows a relative sea level drop and this matches with a regressive systems tract. The Nita Formation Cudalgarra Member (intervals Or3000P and Or4000) with transgressive systems tract then this is followed by a regressive systems tract. This pattern matches with the relative sea-level curves in wells McLarty 1 and Robert 1. The correlation is weak for parts of well Looma 1. This is probably influenced by the fact that the thickness of this section is quite small. As a conclusion, Fischer plots for the Llanvirnian Goldwyer and Nita Formations show good agreement with the third order global sea level cycles of Haq and others. Fischer plots are generally correlated well with trend and cyclicity determined by INPEFA curves and as a method of cross-checking INPEFA data and sea-level change.

Keywords: canning basin, Fischer plots, Llanvirnian, middle Ordovician, sea-level fluctuations, stratigraphy

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2728 Inferring Human Mobility in India Using Machine Learning

Authors: Asra Yousuf, Ajaykumar Tannirkulum

Abstract:

Inferring rural-urban migration trends can help design effective policies that promote better urban planning and rural development. In this paper, we describe how machine learning algorithms can be applied to predict internal migration decisions of people. We consider data collected from household surveys in Tamil Nadu to train our model. To measure the performance of the model, we use data on past migration from National Sample Survey Organisation of India. The factors for training the model include socioeconomic characteristic of each individual like age, gender, place of residence, outstanding loans, strength of the household, etc. and his past migration history. We perform a comparative analysis of the performance of a number of machine learning algorithm to determine their prediction accuracy. Our results show that machine learning algorithms provide a stronger prediction accuracy as compared to statistical models. Our goal through this research is to propose the use of data science techniques in understanding human decisions and behaviour in developing countries.

Keywords: development, migration, internal migration, machine learning, prediction

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2727 Statistical Classification, Downscaling and Uncertainty Assessment for Global Climate Model Outputs

Authors: Queen Suraajini Rajendran, Sai Hung Cheung

Abstract:

Statistical down scaling models are required to connect the global climate model outputs and the local weather variables for climate change impact prediction. For reliable climate change impact studies, the uncertainty associated with the model including natural variability, uncertainty in the climate model(s), down scaling model, model inadequacy and in the predicted results should be quantified appropriately. In this work, a new approach is developed by the authors for statistical classification, statistical down scaling and uncertainty assessment and is applied to Singapore rainfall. It is a robust Bayesian uncertainty analysis methodology and tools based on coupling dependent modeling error with classification and statistical down scaling models in a way that the dependency among modeling errors will impact the results of both classification and statistical down scaling model calibration and uncertainty analysis for future prediction. Singapore data are considered here and the uncertainty and prediction results are obtained. From the results obtained, directions of research for improvement are briefly presented.

Keywords: statistical downscaling, global climate model, climate change, uncertainty

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2726 Effect of Traffic Composition on Delay and Saturation Flow at Signal Controlled Intersections

Authors: Arpita Saha, Apoorv Jain, Satish Chandra, Indrajit Ghosh

Abstract:

Level of service at a signal controlled intersection is directly measured from the delay. Similarly, saturation flow rate is a fundamental parameter to measure the intersection capacity. The present study calculates vehicle arrival rate, departure rate, and queue length for every five seconds interval in each cycle. Based on the queue lengths, the total delay of the cycle has been calculated using Simpson’s 1/3rd rule. Saturation flow has been estimated in terms of veh/hr of green/lane for every five seconds interval of the green period until at least three vehicles are left to cross the stop line. Vehicle composition shows an immense effect on total delay and saturation flow rate. The increase in two-wheeler proportion increases the saturation flow rate and reduces the total delay per vehicle significantly. Additionally, an increase in the heavy vehicle proportion reduces the saturation flow rate and increases the total delay for each vehicle.

Keywords: delay, saturation flow, signalised intersection, vehicle composition

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2725 A Prediction Model Using the Price Cyclicality Function Optimized for Algorithmic Trading in Financial Market

Authors: Cristian Păuna

Abstract:

After the widespread release of electronic trading, automated trading systems have become a significant part of the business intelligence system of any modern financial investment company. An important part of the trades is made completely automatically today by computers using mathematical algorithms. The trading decisions are taken almost instantly by logical models and the orders are sent by low-latency automatic systems. This paper will present a real-time price prediction methodology designed especially for algorithmic trading. Based on the price cyclicality function, the methodology revealed will generate price cyclicality bands to predict the optimal levels for the entries and exits. In order to automate the trading decisions, the cyclicality bands will generate automated trading signals. We have found that the model can be used with good results to predict the changes in market behavior. Using these predictions, the model can automatically adapt the trading signals in real-time to maximize the trading results. The paper will reveal the methodology to optimize and implement this model in automated trading systems. After tests, it is proved that this methodology can be applied with good efficiency in different timeframes. Real trading results will be also displayed and analyzed in order to qualify the methodology and to compare it with other models. As a conclusion, it was found that the price prediction model using the price cyclicality function is a reliable trading methodology for algorithmic trading in the financial market.

Keywords: algorithmic trading, automated trading systems, financial markets, high-frequency trading, price prediction

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2724 Data Refinement Enhances The Accuracy of Short-Term Traffic Latency Prediction

Authors: Man Fung Ho, Lap So, Jiaqi Zhang, Yuheng Zhao, Huiyang Lu, Tat Shing Choi, K. Y. Michael Wong

Abstract:

Nowadays, a tremendous amount of data is available in the transportation system, enabling the development of various machine learning approaches to make short-term latency predictions. A natural question is then the choice of relevant information to enable accurate predictions. Using traffic data collected from the Taiwan Freeway System, we consider the prediction of short-term latency of a freeway segment with a length of 17 km covering 5 measurement points, each collecting vehicle-by-vehicle data through the electronic toll collection system. The processed data include the past latencies of the freeway segment with different time lags, the traffic conditions of the individual segments (the accumulations, the traffic fluxes, the entrance and exit rates), the total accumulations, and the weekday latency profiles obtained by Gaussian process regression of past data. We arrive at several important conclusions about how data should be refined to obtain accurate predictions, which have implications for future system-wide latency predictions. (1) We find that the prediction of median latency is much more accurate and meaningful than the prediction of average latency, as the latter is plagued by outliers. This is verified by machine-learning prediction using XGBoost that yields a 35% improvement in the mean square error of the 5-minute averaged latencies. (2) We find that the median latency of the segment 15 minutes ago is a very good baseline for performance comparison, and we have evidence that further improvement is achieved by machine learning approaches such as XGBoost and Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM). (3) By analyzing the feature importance score in XGBoost and calculating the mutual information between the inputs and the latencies to be predicted, we identify a sequence of inputs ranked in importance. It confirms that the past latencies are most informative of the predicted latencies, followed by the total accumulation, whereas inputs such as the entrance and exit rates are uninformative. It also confirms that the inputs are much less informative of the average latencies than the median latencies. (4) For predicting the latencies of segments composed of two or three sub-segments, summing up the predicted latencies of each sub-segment is more accurate than the one-step prediction of the whole segment, especially with the latency prediction of the downstream sub-segments trained to anticipate latencies several minutes ahead. The duration of the anticipation time is an increasing function of the traveling time of the upstream segment. The above findings have important implications to predicting the full set of latencies among the various locations in the freeway system.

Keywords: data refinement, machine learning, mutual information, short-term latency prediction

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2723 A Hybrid Block Multistep Method for Direct Numerical Integration of Fourth Order Initial Value Problems

Authors: Adamu S. Salawu, Ibrahim O. Isah

Abstract:

Direct solution to several forms of fourth-order ordinary differential equations is not easily obtained without first reducing them to a system of first-order equations. Thus, numerical methods are being developed with the underlying techniques in the literature, which seeks to approximate some classes of fourth-order initial value problems with admissible error bounds. Multistep methods present a great advantage of the ease of implementation but with a setback of several functions evaluation for every stage of implementation. However, hybrid methods conventionally show a slightly higher order of truncation for any k-step linear multistep method, with the possibility of obtaining solutions at off mesh points within the interval of solution. In the light of the foregoing, we propose the continuous form of a hybrid multistep method with Chebyshev polynomial as a basis function for the numerical integration of fourth-order initial value problems of ordinary differential equations. The basis function is interpolated and collocated at some points on the interval [0, 2] to yield a system of equations, which is solved to obtain the unknowns of the approximating polynomial. The continuous form obtained, its first and second derivatives are evaluated at carefully chosen points to obtain the proposed block method needed to directly approximate fourth-order initial value problems. The method is analyzed for convergence. Implementation of the method is done by conducting numerical experiments on some test problems. The outcome of the implementation of the method suggests that the method performs well on problems with oscillatory or trigonometric terms since the approximations at several points on the solution domain did not deviate too far from the theoretical solutions. The method also shows better performance compared with an existing hybrid method when implemented on a larger interval of solution.

Keywords: Chebyshev polynomial, collocation, hybrid multistep method, initial value problems, interpolation

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2722 Online Learning for Modern Business Models: Theoretical Considerations and Algorithms

Authors: Marian Sorin Ionescu, Olivia Negoita, Cosmin Dobrin

Abstract:

This scientific communication reports and discusses learning models adaptable to modern business problems and models specific to digital concepts and paradigms. In the PAC (probably approximately correct) learning model approach, in which the learning process begins by receiving a batch of learning examples, the set of learning processes is used to acquire a hypothesis, and when the learning process is fully used, this hypothesis is used in the prediction of new operational examples. For complex business models, a lot of models should be introduced and evaluated to estimate the induced results so that the totality of the results are used to develop a predictive rule, which anticipates the choice of new models. In opposition, for online learning-type processes, there is no separation between the learning (training) and predictive phase. Every time a business model is approached, a test example is considered from the beginning until the prediction of the appearance of a model considered correct from the point of view of the business decision. After choosing choice a part of the business model, the label with the logical value "true" is known. Some of the business models are used as examples of learning (training), which helps to improve the prediction mechanisms for future business models.

Keywords: machine learning, business models, convex analysis, online learning

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2721 Prediction of the Regioselectivity of 1,3-Dipolar Cycloaddition Reactions of Nitrile Oxides with 2(5H)-Furanones Using Recent Theoretical Reactivity Indices

Authors: Imad Eddine Charif, Wafaa Benchouk, Sidi Mohamed Mekelleche

Abstract:

The regioselectivity of a series of 16 1,3-dipolar cycloaddition reactions of nitrile oxides with 2(5H)-furanones has been analysed by means of global and local electrophilic and nucleophilic reactivity indices using density functional theory at the B3LYP level together with the 6-31G(d) basis set. The local electrophilicity and nucleophilicity indices, based on Fukui and Parr functions, have been calculated for the terminal sites, namely the C1 and O3 atoms of the 1,3-dipole and the C4 and C5 atoms of the dipolarophile. These local indices were calculated using both Mulliken and natural charges and spin densities. The results obtained show that the C5 atom of the 2(5H)-furanones is the most electrophilic site whereas the O3 atom of the nitrile oxides is the most nucleophilic centre. It turns out that the experimental regioselectivity is correctly reproduced, indicating that both Fukui- and Parr-based indices are efficient tools for the prediction of the regiochemistry of the studied reactions and could be used for the prediction of newly designed reactions of the same kind.

Keywords: 1, 3-dipolar cycloaddition, density functional theory, nitrile oxides, regioselectivity, reactivity indices

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2720 Reliability Analysis for Cyclic Fatigue Life Prediction in Railroad Bolt Hole

Authors: Hasan Keshavarzian, Tayebeh Nesari

Abstract:

Bolted rail joint is one of the most vulnerable areas in railway track. A comprehensive approach was developed for studying the reliability of fatigue crack initiation of railroad bolt hole under random axle loads and random material properties. The operation condition was also considered as stochastic variables. In order to obtain the comprehensive probability model of fatigue crack initiation life prediction in railroad bolt hole, we used FEM, response surface method (RSM), and reliability analysis. Combined energy-density based and critical plane based fatigue concept is used for the fatigue crack prediction. The dynamic loads were calculated according to the axle load, speed, and track properties. The results show that axle load is most sensitive parameter compared to Poisson’s ratio in fatigue crack initiation life. Also, the reliability index decreases slowly due to high cycle fatigue regime in this area.

Keywords: rail-wheel tribology, rolling contact mechanic, finite element modeling, reliability analysis

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2719 Considerations for the Use of High Intensity Interval Training in Secondary Physical Education

Authors: Amy Stringer, Resa Chandler

Abstract:

High Intensity Interval Training (HIIT) involves a 3-10-minute circuit of various exercises which is a viable alternative to a traditional cardiovascular and strength training regimen. Research suggests that measures of health-related fitness can either be maintained or actually improve with the use of this training method. After conducting a 6-week HIIT research study with 10-14 year old children, considerations for using a daily HIIT workout are presented. Is the use of HIIT with children a reasonable consideration for physical education programs? The benefits and challenges of this type of an intervention are identified. This study is significant in that achieving fitness gains in a small amount of daily class time is an attractive concept – especially for physical education teachers who often do not have the time necessary to accomplish all of their curricular goals in the amount of class time assigned. Basic methodologies include students participating in a circuit of exercises for 7-10 minutes at 80-95% of max heart rate as measured by heart rate monitors. Student pre and post fitness test data were collected for cardio-vascular endurance, muscular endurance, and body composition. Research notes as well as commentary by the teachers and researchers who participated in the HIIT study contributed to the understanding of the cost-benefit analysis. Major findings of the study are that HIIT has limited effectiveness but is a good choice for limited class times. Student efficacy of their ability to complete the exercises and visible heart rate data were considered to be significant factors in success of the HIIT study. The effective use of technology promoting positive audience effect during the display of heart rate data was more important at the beginning of the study than at the end. Student ‘buy-in’ and motivation, teacher motivation and ‘buy-in’, the variety of activities in the circuit and the fitness level of the student at the beginning of the study were also findings influencing the fitness outcomes of the study. Concluding Statement: High intensity interval training can be used effectively in a secondary physical education program. It is not a ‘magic bullet’ to produce health-related fitness outcomes in every student but it is an effective tool to enhance student fitness in a limited time and contribute to the goals of the program.

Keywords: cardio vascular fitness, children, high intensity interval training, physical education

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2718 A Model of Foam Density Prediction for Expanded Perlite Composites

Authors: M. Arifuzzaman, H. S. Kim

Abstract:

Multiple sets of variables associated with expanded perlite particle consolidation in foam manufacturing were analyzed to develop a model for predicting perlite foam density. The consolidation of perlite particles based on the flotation method and compaction involves numerous variables leading to the final perlite foam density. The variables include binder content, compaction ratio, perlite particle size, various perlite particle densities and porosities, and various volumes of perlite at different stages of process. The developed model was found to be useful not only for prediction of foam density but also for optimization between compaction ratio and binder content to achieve a desired density. Experimental verification was conducted using a range of foam densities (0.15–0.5 g/cm3) produced with a range of compaction ratios (1.5-3.5), a range of sodium silicate contents (0.05–0.35 g/ml) in dilution, a range of expanded perlite particle sizes (1-4 mm), and various perlite densities (such as skeletal, material, bulk, and envelope densities). A close agreement between predictions and experimental results was found.

Keywords: expanded perlite, flotation method, foam density, model, prediction, sodium silicate

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2717 Satellite Statistical Data Approach for Upwelling Identification and Prediction in South of East Java and Bali Sea

Authors: Hary Aprianto Wijaya Siahaan, Bayu Edo Pratama

Abstract:

Sea fishery's potential to become one of the nation's assets which very contributed to Indonesia's economy. This fishery potential not in spite of the availability of the chlorophyll in the territorial waters of Indonesia. The research was conducted using three methods, namely: statistics, comparative and analytical. The data used include MODIS sea temperature data imaging results in Aqua satellite with a resolution of 4 km in 2002-2015, MODIS data of chlorophyll-a imaging results in Aqua satellite with a resolution of 4 km in 2002-2015, and Imaging results data ASCAT on MetOp and NOAA satellites with 27 km resolution in 2002-2015. The results of the processing of the data show that the incidence of upwelling in the south of East Java Sea began to happen in June identified with sea surface temperature anomaly below normal, the mass of the air that moves from the East to the West, and chlorophyll-a concentrations are high. In July the region upwelling events are increasingly expanding towards the West and reached its peak in August. Chlorophyll-a concentration prediction using multiple linear regression equations demonstrate excellent results to chlorophyll-a concentrations prediction in 2002 until 2015 with the correlation of predicted chlorophyll-a concentration indicate a value of 0.8 and 0.3 with RMSE value. On the chlorophyll-a concentration prediction in 2016 indicate good results despite a decline in the value of the correlation, where the correlation of predicted chlorophyll-a concentration in the year 2016 indicate a value 0.6, but showed improvement in RMSE values with 0.2.

Keywords: satellite, sea surface temperature, upwelling, wind stress

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2716 Early Design Prediction of Submersible Maneuvers

Authors: Hernani Brinati, Mardel de Conti, Moyses Szajnbok, Valentina Domiciano

Abstract:

This study brings a mathematical model and examples for the numerical prediction of submersible maneuvers in the horizontal and in the vertical planes. The geometry of the submarine is here taken as a body of revolution plus a sail, two horizontal and two vertical rudders. The model includes the representation of the hull resistance and of the propeller thrust and torque, what enables to consider the variation of the longitudinal component of the velocity of the ship when maneuvering. The hydrodynamic forces are represented through power series expansions of the acceleration and velocity components. The hydrodynamic derivatives for the body of revolution are mostly estimated based on fundamental principles applicable to the flow around airplane fuselages in the subsonic regime. The hydrodynamic forces for the sail and rudders are estimated based on a finite aspect ratio wing theory. The objective of this study is to build an expedite model for submarine maneuvers prediction, based on fundamental principles, which may be convenient in the early stages of the ship design. This model is tested against available numerical and experimental data.

Keywords: submarine maneuvers, submarine, maneuvering, dynamics

Procedia PDF Downloads 638