Search results for: ‎maximum likelihood estimation‎

Authors: Elijah Cavan

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In Major League Sports (MLB, NBA, NHL, NFL), it is the Front Office Staff (FOS) who make decisions about who plays for their respective team. The FOS bear the brunt of the responsibility for acquiring players through drafting, trading and signing players in free agency while typically contesting with maximum roster salary constraints. The players themselves are volatile assets of these teams- their value fluctuates with age and performance. A simple comparison can be made when viewing players as assets. The problem here is similar to that of optimizing your investment portfolio. The The goal is ultimately to maximize your periodic returns while tolerating a fixed risk (degree of uncertainty/ potential loss). Each franchise may value assets differently, and some may only tolerate lower risk levels- these are examples of factors that introduce additional constraints into the model. In this talk, we will detail the mathematical formulation of this problem as a constrained optimization problem- which can be solved with classical machine learning methods but is also well posed as a problem to be solved on quantum computers

Keywords: optimization, financial mathematics, sports analytics, simulated annealing

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Authors: Alla V. Goncharova, Tatyana A. Karpenyuk, Yana S. Tsurkan, Rosa U. Beisembaeva, Togzhan D. Mukasheva, Ludmila V. Ignatova, Ramza Z. Berzhanova

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In this work the effect of culturing conditions of filamentous fungi Penicillium raistrickii, Penicillium anatolicum, Fusarium sp. on biomass yield, the content of total lipids and fatty acids was studied. It has been established that in time the process of lipids accumulation correlated with biomass growth of cultures, reaching maximum values in stationary growth phase. Biomass yield and accumulation of general lipids was increased by adding zinc to the culture medium. The more intensive accumulation of biomass and general lipids was observed at temperature 18°C. Lowering the temperature of culturing has changed the ratio of saturated: Unsaturated fatty acids in the direction of increasing the latter.

Keywords: biomass, culturing conditions, fungi, fatty acids (FA), growth dynamics, lipids

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Authors: Nurul Qalbi Awaliyah, Rosmala Rauf, Indrawan, Suherman

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Zakat is a certain amount of property which shall be issued by Moslems and given to groups who deserve it (the poor and so on) according to the conditions set by the sharia. This research aims to know the effectiveness of the management of zakat on Dompet Dhuafa in Makasar. The type of research used is quantitative research with descriptive research method. Data collection was done through the dissemination of Likert scale and measurement of the now. The samples were analyzed by as much as 68 and analyzed using SPSS 18.0. The results of the analysis of data obtained at the level of effectiveness of management of zakat in Makassar from all aspects based on SPSS has a mean 140.04 median, minimum, 141 122, and a maximum of 164. The value of all the indicators of assessment of the effectiveness of the management of zakat on Dompet Dhuafa in Makassar has an average score of (M) of 112.5 and standard deviation (SD) of 37.5. The results show that the level of effectiveness of management of zakat in Makassar city is in the category of effective percentage 85,3%. Based on the results it can be concluded that management of zakat on Dompet Dhuafa in Makassar city has been implemented effectively.

Keywords: Dompet Duafa, effectiveness, management, Zakat

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Authors: Rafiuddin

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Composite solid electrolyte of the salt and oxide type is an effective approach to improve the ionic conductivity in low and intermediate temperature regions. The conductivity enhancement in the composites occurs via interfaces. Because of their high ionic conduction, composite electrolytes have wide applications in different electrochemical devices such as solid-state batteries, solid oxide fuel cells, and electrochemical cells. In this work, a series of novel (1‒x) (CdI2‒Ag2CrO4)‒xAl2O3 composite solid electrolytes has been synthesized. The prepared materials were characterized by X‒ray diffraction, differential thermal analysis, and AC impedance spectroscopy. The impedance spectra show single semicircle representing the simultaneous contribution of grain and grain boundary. The conductivity increased with the increase of Al2O3 content and shows the maximum conductivity (σ= 0.0012 S cm‒1) for 30% of Al2O3 content at 30 ℃.

Keywords: composite solid electrolyte, X-ray diffraction, Impedance spectroscopy, ionic conductivity

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Authors: Ajai Singh

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Simulation of hydrological processes at the watershed outlet through modelling approach is essential for proper planning and implementation of appropriate soil conservation measures in Damodar Barakar catchment, Hazaribagh, India where soil erosion is a dominant problem. This study quantifies the parametric uncertainty involved in simulation of stream flow using Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT), a watershed scale model and Radial Basis Neural Network (RBNN), an artificial neural network model. Both the models were calibrated and validated based on measured stream flow and quantification of the uncertainty in SWAT model output was assessed using ‘‘Sequential Uncertainty Fitting Algorithm’’ (SUFI-2). Though both the model predicted satisfactorily, but RBNN model performed better than SWAT with R2 and NSE values of 0.92 and 0.92 during training, and 0.71 and 0.70 during validation period, respectively. Comparison of the results of the two models also indicates a wider prediction interval for the results of the SWAT model. The values of P-factor related to each model shows that the percentage of observed stream flow values bracketed by the 95PPU in the RBNN model as 91% is higher than the P-factor in SWAT as 87%. In other words the RBNN model estimates the stream flow values more accurately and with less uncertainty. It could be stated that RBNN model based on simple input could be used for estimation of monthly stream flow, missing data, and testing the accuracy and performance of other models.

Keywords: SWAT, RBNN, SUFI 2, bootstrap technique, stream flow, simulation

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Authors: Haggay Etkes

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This study provides evidence for the impact of monthly interviews conducted for the Israeli Labor Force Surveys (LFSs) on estimated flows between labor force (LF) statuses and on coefficients in fixed-effects estimations. The study uses the natural experiment of parallel interviews for the quarterly and the monthly LFSs in Israel in 2011 for demonstrating that the Labor Force Participation (LFP) rate of Jewish persons who participated in the monthly LFS increased between interviews, while in the quarterly LFS it decreased. Interestingly, the estimated impact on the LFP rate of self-reporting individuals is 2.6–3.5 percentage points while the impact on the LFP rate of individuals whose data was reported by another member of their household (a proxy), is lower and statistically insignificant. The relative increase of the LFP rate in the monthly survey is a result of a lower rate of exit from the LF and a somewhat higher rate of entry into the LF relative to these flows in the quarterly survey. These differing flows have a bearing on labor search models as the monthly survey portrays a labor market with less friction and a “steady state” LFP rate that is 5.9 percentage points higher than the quarterly survey. The study also demonstrates that monthly interviews affect a specific group (45–64 year-olds); thus the sign of coefficient of age as an explanatory variable in fixed-effects regressions on LFP is negative in the monthly survey and positive in the quarterly survey.

Keywords: measurement error, surveys, search, LFSs

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Authors: Vanessa H. S. Zago, Ana Maria H. de Avila, Paula P. Costa, Welington Corozolla, Liriam S. Teixeira, Eliana C. de Faria

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Objectives: The outcome of cardiovascular disease is affected by environment and climate. This study evaluated the possible relationships between climatic and environmental changes and the occurrence of biological rhythms in serum lipids and lipoproteins in a large population sample in the city of Campinas, State of Sao Paulo, Brazil. In addition, it determined the temporal variations of death due to atherosclerotic events in Campinas during the time window examined. Methods: A large 8-year retrospective study was carried out to evaluate the lipid profiles of individuals attended at the University of Campinas (Unicamp). The study population comprised 27.543 individuals of both sexes and of all ages. Normolipidemic and dyslipidemic individuals classified according to Brazilian guidelines on dyslipidemias, participated in the study. For the same period, the temperature, relative humidity and daily brightness records were obtained from the Centro de Pesquisas Meteorologicas e Climaticas Aplicadas a Agricultura/Unicamp and frequencies of death due to atherosclerotic events in Campinas were acquired from the Brazilian official database DATASUS, according to the International Classification of Diseases. Statistical analyses were performed using both Cosinor and ARIMA temporal analysis methods. For cross-correlation analysis between climatic and lipid parameters, cross-correlation functions were used. Results: Preliminary results indicated that rhythmicity was significant for LDL-C and HDL-C in the cases of both normolipidemic and dyslipidemic subjects (n =respectively 11.892 and 15.651 both measures increasing in the winter and decreasing in the summer). On the other hand, for dyslipidemic subjects triglycerides increased in summer and decreased in winter, in contrast to normolipidemic ones, in which triglycerides did not show rhythmicity. The number of deaths due to atherosclerotic events showed significant rhythmicity, with maximum and minimum frequencies in winter and summer, respectively. Cross-correlation analyzes showed that low humidity and temperature, higher thermal amplitude and dark cycles are associated with increased levels of LDL-C and HDL-C during winter. In contrast, TG showed moderate cross-correlations with temperature and minimum humidity in an inverse way: maximum temperature and humidity increased TG during the summer. Conclusions: This study showed a coincident rhythmicity between low temperatures and high concentrations of LDL-C and HDL-C and the number of deaths due to atherosclerotic cardiovascular events in individuals from the city of Campinas. The opposite behavior of cholesterol and TG suggest different physiological mechanisms in their metabolic modulation by climate parameters change. Thus, new analyses are underway to better elucidate these mechanisms, as well as variations in lipid concentrations in relation to climatic variations and their associations with atherosclerotic disease and death outcomes in Campinas.

Keywords: atherosclerosis, climatic variations, lipids and lipoproteins, associations

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Authors: Payam Rasoulnia, Seyyed Mohammad Mousavi

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Heavy fuel oil firing power plants produce huge amounts of ashes as solid wastes, which seriously need to be managed and processed. Recycling precious metals of V and Ni from these oil-fired ashes which are considered as secondary sources of metals recovery, not only has a great economic importance for use in industry, but also it is noteworthy from the environmental point of view. Vanadium is an important metal that is mainly used in the steel industry because of its physical properties of hardness, tensile strength, and fatigue resistance. It is also utilized in oxidation catalysts, titanium–aluminum alloys and vanadium redox batteries. In the present study bioleaching of vanadium and nickel from an oil-fired ash sample was conducted using Aspergillus niger fungus. The experiments were carried out using spent-medium bioleaching method in both Erlenmeyer flasks and also bubble column bioreactor, in order to compare them together. In spent-medium bioleaching the solid waste is not in direct contact with the fungus and consequently the fungal growth is not retarded and maximum organic acids are produced. In this method the metals are leached through biogenic produced organic acids present in the medium. In shake flask experiments the fungus was cultured for 15 days, where the maximum production of organic acids was observed, while in bubble column bioreactor experiments a 7 days fermentation period was applied. The amount of produced organic acids were measured using high performance liquid chromatography (HPLC) and the results showed that depending on the fermentation period and the scale of experiments, the fungus has different major lixiviants. In flask tests, citric acid was the main produced organic acid by the fungus and the other organic acids including gluconic, oxalic, and malic were excreted in much lower concentrations, while in the bioreactor oxalic acid was the main lixiviant and it was produced considerably. In Erlenmeyer flasks during 15 days fermentation of Aspergillus niger, 8080 ppm citric acid and 1170 ppm oxalic acid was produced, while in bubble column bioreactor over 7 days of fungal growth, 17185 ppm oxalic acid and 1040 ppm citric acid was secreted. The leaching tests using the spent-media obtained from both of fermentation experiments, were performed at the same conditions of leaching duration of 7 days, leaching temperature of 60 °C and pulp density up to 3% (w/v). The results revealed that in Erlenmeyer flask experiments 97% of V and 50% of Ni were extracted while using spent medium produced in bubble column bioreactor, V and Ni recoveries were achieved to 100% and 33%, respectively. These recovery yields indicate that in both scales almost total vanadium can be recovered, while nickel recovery was lower. With help of the bioreactor spent-medium nickel recovery yield was lower than that of obtained from the flask experiments, which it could be due to precipitation of some values of Ni in presence of high levels of oxalic acid existing in its spent medium.

Keywords: Aspergillus niger, bubble column bioreactor, oil-fired ash, spent-medium bioleaching

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Authors: Yi-Tung Lin

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Researchers commonly assess implicit self-esteem with the Implicit Association Test (IAT). The IAT’s measure, often referred to as the IAT effect, indicates the strengths of automatic preferences for the self relative to others, which is often considered an index of implicit self-esteem. However, based on the Dual-process theory, the IAT does not rely entirely on the automatic process; it is also influenced by a controlled process. The present study, therefore, analyzed the IAT data with the Quad model, separating four processes on the IAT performance: the likelihood that automatic association is activated by the stimulus in the trial (AC); that a correct response is discriminated in the trial (D); that the automatic bias is overcome in favor of a deliberate response (OB); and that when the association is not activated, and the individual fails to discriminate a correct answer, there is a guessing or response bias drives the response (G). The AC and G processes are automatic, while the D and OB processes are controlled. The AC parameter is considered as the strength of the association activated by the stimulus, which reflects what implicit measures of social cognition aim to assess. The stronger the automatic association between self and positive valence, the more likely it will be activated by a relevant stimulus. Therefore, the AC parameter was used as the index of implicit self-esteem in the present study. Meanwhile, the relationship between implicit self-esteem and depression is not fully investigated. In the cognitive theory of depression, it is assumed that the negative self-schema is crucial in depression. Based on this point of view, implicit self-esteem would be negatively associated with depression. However, the results among empirical studies are inconsistent. The aims of the present study were to examine the psychometric properties of the AC (i.e., test-retest reliability and its correlations with explicit self-esteem and depression) and compare it with that of the IAT effect. The present study had 105 patients with depressive disorders completing the Rosenberg Self-Esteem Scale, Beck Depression Inventory-II and the IAT on the pretest. After at least 3 weeks, the participants completed the second IAT. The data were analyzed by the latent-trait multinomial processing tree model (latent-trait MPT) with the TreeBUGS package in R. The result showed that the latent-trait MPT had a satisfactory model fit. The effect size of test-retest reliability of the AC and the IAT effect were medium (r = .43, p < .0001) and small (r = .29, p < .01) respectively. Only the AC showed a significant correlation with explicit self-esteem (r = .19, p < .05). Neither of the two indexes was correlated with depression. Collectively, the AC parameter was a satisfactory index of implicit self-esteem compared with the IAT effect. Also, the present study supported the results that implicit self-esteem was not correlated with depression.

Keywords: cognitive modeling, implicit association test, implicit self-esteem, quad model

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Authors: Celso L. Fernando, Toshio Yoshii, Takahiro Tsubota

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Understanding the causes of a road accident and predicting their occurrence is key to preventing deaths and serious injuries from road accident events. Traditional statistical methods such as the Poisson and the Logistics regressions have been used to find the association of the traffic environmental factors with the accident occurred; recently, an artificial neural network, ANN, a computational technique that learns from historical data to make a more accurate prediction, has emerged. Although the ability to make accurate predictions, the ANN has difficulty dealing with highly unbalanced attribute patterns distribution in the training dataset; in such circumstances, the ANN treats the minority group as noise. However, in the real world data, the minority group is often the group of interest; e.g., in the road traffic accident data, the events of the accident are the group of interest. This study proposes a combination of the k-means with the ANN to improve the predictive ability of the neural network model by alleviating the effect of the unbalanced distribution of the attribute patterns in the training dataset. The results show that the proposed method improves the ability of the neural network to make a prediction on a highly unbalanced distributed attribute patterns dataset; however, on an even distributed attribute patterns dataset, the proposed method performs almost like a standard neural network.

Keywords: accident risks estimation, artificial neural network, deep learning, k-mean, road safety

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Authors: Feng Yang

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Machine learning (ML), especially deep learning (DL), has been extensively applied to many applications in recently years and gained great success in solving different problems, including scientific problems. However, conventional ML/DL methodologies are purely data-driven which have the limitations, such as need of ample amount of labelled training data, lack of consistency to physical principles, and lack of generalizability to new problems/domains. Recently, there is a growing consensus that ML models need to further take advantage of prior knowledge to deal with these limitations. Physics-informed machine learning, aiming at integration of physics/domain knowledge into ML, has been recognized as an emerging area of research, especially in the recent 2 to 3 years. In this work, physics-informed ML, specifically physics-informed neural network (NN), is employed and implemented to estimate the displacements at x, y, z directions in a solid mechanics problem that is controlled by equilibrium equations with boundary conditions. By incorporating the physics (i.e. the equilibrium equations) into the learning process of NN, it is showed that the NN can be trained very efficiently with a small set of labelled training data. Experiments with different settings of the NN model and the amount of labelled training data were conducted, and the results show that very high accuracy can be achieved in fulfilling the equilibrium equations as well as in predicting the displacements, e.g. in setting the overall displacement of 0.1, a root mean square error (RMSE) of 2.09 × 10−4 was achieved.

Keywords: deep learning, neural network, physics-informed machine learning, solid mechanics

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Authors: Mohammad Javad Esmaeili

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Background: Coagulopathy is one of the complications with end stage renal disease with high prevalence in the world. Thromboelastogram is adynamic test for evaluation of coagulopathy and we have compared our patient's coagulation profiles with the results of TEG. Material and methods: In this study 50 patients with ESRD who were on regular hemodialysis for at least 6 months was selected with simple sampling and their coagulation profile was done with blood sampling and also TEG was done for every patient. Data were analyzed with SPSS and P<0.05 consider significant. Results: Protein s, Protein c and Antithrombin III deficiency was detected in 32%, 16% and 20% of patients and activated protein c resistance was abnormal in 2% of patients. In TEG, R time in 49% and K in 22/5% of patients was lower than normal and a-angle in 26% and maximum amplitude in 36% of patients was upper than normal (Hypercoagulable state). PS with R and ATIII with K have correlation. Conclusion: R time and K in TEG can be a suitable screening test in patients with suspicious to PS and ATIII deficiency.

Keywords: thromboelastography, chronic kidney disease, Coagulating disorder, hemodialysis

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Authors: Dinebari Akpee, Friday Aabe Gaage, Florence Fred Nwaigwu

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Natural disasters like flood affect many parts of the world including developing countries like Nigeria. As a result, many human lives are lost, properties damaged and so much money is lost in infrastructure damages. These hazards and losses can be mitigated and reduced by providing reliable spatial information to the generality of the people through about flood risks through flood inundation maps. Flood inundation maps are very crucial for emergency action plans, urban planning, ecological studies and insurance rates. Nigeria experience her worst flood in her entire history this year. Many cities were submerged and completely under water due to torrential rainfall. Poor city planning, lack of effective development control among others contributes to the problem too. Geographic information system (GIS) can be used to visualize the extent of flooding, analyze flood maps to produce flood damaged estimation maps and flood risk maps. In this research, the under listed steps were taken in preparation of flood risk maps for the study area: (1) Digitization of topographic data and preparation of digital elevation model using ArcGIS (2) Flood simulation using hydraulic model and integration and (3) Integration of the first two steps to produce flood risk maps. The results shows that GIS can play crucial role in Flood disaster control and mitigation.

Keywords: flood disaster, risk maps, geographic information system, hazards

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Authors: V. E. Messerle, O. A. Lavrichshev, A. B. Ustimenko

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Currently and in the foreseeable future (up to 2100), the global economy is oriented to the use of organic fuel, mostly, solid fuels, the share of which constitutes 40% in the generation of electric power. Therefore, the development of technologies for their effective and environmentally friendly application represents a priority problem nowadays. This work presents the results of thermodynamic and experimental investigations of plasma technology for processing of low-grade coals. The use of this technology for producing target products (synthesis gas, hydrogen, technical carbon, and valuable components of mineral mass of coals) meets the modern environmental and economic requirements applied to basic industrial sectors. The plasma technology of coal processing for the production of synthesis gas from the coal organic mass (COM) and valuable components from coal mineral mass (CMM) is highly promising. Its essence is heating the coal dust by reducing electric arc plasma to the complete gasification temperature, when the COM converts into synthesis gas, free from particles of ash, nitrogen oxides and sulfur. At the same time, oxides of the CMM are reduced by the carbon residue, producing valuable components, such as technical silicon, ferrosilicon, aluminum and carbon silicon, as well as microelements of rare metals, such as uranium, molybdenum, vanadium, titanium. Thermodynamic analysis of the process was made using a versatile computation program TERRA. Calculations were carried out in the temperature range 300 - 4000 K and a pressure of 0.1 MPa. Bituminous coal with the ash content of 40% and the heating value 16,632 kJ/kg was taken for the investigation. The gaseous phase of coal processing products includes, basically, a synthesis gas with a concentration of up to 99 vol.% at 1500 K. CMM components completely converts from the condensed phase into the gaseous phase at a temperature above 2600 K. At temperatures above 3000 K, the gaseous phase includes, basically, Si, Al, Ca, Fe, Na, and compounds of SiO, SiH, AlH, and SiS. The latter compounds dissociate into relevant elements with increasing temperature. Complex coal conversion for the production of synthesis gas from COM and valuable components from CMM was investigated using a versatile experimental plant the main element of which was plug and flow plasma reactor. The material and thermal balances helped to find the integral indicators for the process. Plasma-steam gasification of the low-grade coal with CMM processing gave the synthesis gas yield 95.2%, the carbon gasification 92.3%, and coal desulfurization 95.2%. The reduced material of the CMM was found in the slag in the form of ferrosilicon as well as silicon and iron carbides. The maximum reduction of the CMM oxides was observed in the slag from the walls of the plasma reactor in the areas with maximum temperatures, reaching 47%. The thusly produced synthesis gas can be used for synthesis of methanol, or as a high-calorific reducing gas instead of blast-furnace coke as well as power gas for thermal power plants. Reduced material of CMM can be used in metallurgy.

Keywords: gasification, mineral mass, organic mass, plasma, processing, solid fuel, synthesis gas, valuable components

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Authors: Constantin Ott, Dietmar Drummer

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The direct encapsulation of electronic components is an effective way of protecting components against external influences. In addition to achieving a sufficient protective effect, there are two other big challenges for satisfying the increasing demand for encapsulated circuit boards. The encapsulation process should be both suitable for mass production and offer a low component load. Injection molding is a method with good suitability for large series production but also with typically high component stress. In this article, two aims were pursued: first, the development of a calculation model that allows an estimation of the occurring forces based on process variables and material parameters. Second, the evaluation of a new approach for stress reduction by means of thermoplastic foam injection molding. For this purpose, simulation-based process data was generated with the Moldflow simulation tool. Based on this, component stresses were calculated with the calculation model. At the same time, this paper provided a model for estimating the forces occurring during overmolding and derived a solution method for reducing these forces. The suitability of this approach was clearly demonstrated and a significant reduction in shear forces during overmolding was achieved. It was possible to demonstrate a process development that makes it possible to meet the two main requirements of direct encapsulation in addition to a high protective effect.

Keywords: encapsulation, stress reduction, foam-injection-molding, simulation

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Authors: Marzena Półka, Bożena Kukfisz

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This paper presents an analysis of dust explosion hazards in the process industries. It includes selected testing method of dust explosibility and presentation two of them according to experimental standards used by Department of Combustion and Fire Theory in The Main School of Fire Service in Warsaw. In the article are presented values of maximum acceptable surface temperature (MAST) of machines operating in the presence of dust cloud and chosen dust layer with thickness of 5 and 12,5mm. The comparative analysis, points to the conclusion that the value of the minimum ignition temperature of the layer (MITL) and the minimum ignition temperature of dust cloud (MTCD) depends on the granularity of the substance. Increasing the thickness of the dust layer reduces minimum ignition temperature of dust layer. Increasing the thickness of dust at the same time extends the flameless combustion and delays the ignition.

Keywords: fire safety engineering, industrial hazards, minimum ignition temperature, wood dust

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Authors: Parvaneh Ziviar Pardehei, Esmaeil Hossinnejad

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In this research, the tourism climate index Miczcofski (TCI) and to assess climate Trjvng Piranshahr city tourism is discussed. The index is a systematic way to evaluate the climatic conditions for tourism. To calculate the parameters of mean monthly maximum temperature, minimum relative humidity, average daily relative humidity, rainfall, sunshine and the wind speed are used. In the months of April, July, August and September of comfort there in December, January, February and March, the nerve is cold comfort factor. Baker calculation method showed that during spring and summer cooling environment, mild, pleasant, and comfortable Byvklymay there. TCI results suggest that the months of April to July are top rated and best climatic conditions in terms of comfort to the tourists. In general, indices used in this paper show that the months of April to October is the best time for tourism in the city Piranshahr.

Keywords: tourism, climate, Piranshahr city, TCI indicators and trjvng

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Authors: Ji-Yeul Bae, Hyung Mo Bae, Jihyuk Kim, Hyung Hee Cho

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An air to air infrared missile poses a significant threat to the survivability of an aircraft due to an advanced sensitivity of sensor and maneuverability of the missile. Therefore, recent military aircraft is equipped with MAW (Missile Approach Warning) to take an evasive maneuver and to deploy countermeasures like chaff and flare. In this research, an effect of MAW sensitivity and resulting evasive maneuver on the survivability of the fighter aircraft is studied. A single engine fighter jet with Mach 0.9 flying at an altitude of 5 km is modeled in the research and infrared signature of the aircraft is calculated by numerical simulation. The survivability is assessed in terms of lethal range. The MAW sensitivity and maneuverability of an aircraft is used as variables. The result showed that improvement in survivability mainly achieved when the missile approach from the side of the aircraft. And maximum 30% increase in survivability of the aircraft is achieved when existence of the missile is noticed at 7 km distance. As a conclusion, sensitivity of the MAW seems to be more important factor than the maneuverability of the aircraft in terms of the survivability.

Keywords: air to air missile, missile approach warning, lethal range, survivability

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Authors: Jian Gu, Sea-Hoon Lee, Jun-Seop Kim

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SiC particulate-reinforced SiC ceramic composites (SiCp/SiC) were successfully fabricated using polymer impregnation and pyrolysis (PIP) method. The effects of green density, infiltrated method, pyrolytic temperature, and heating rate on the densification behavior of the composites were investigated. SiCp/SiC particulate reinforced composites with high relative density up to 88.06% were fabricated after 4 PIP cycles using SiC pellets with high green density. The pellets were prepared by drying 62-70 vol.% aqueous SiC slurries, and the maximum relative density of the pellets was 75.5%. The hardness of the as-fabricated SiCp/SiCs was 21.05 GPa after 4 PIP cycles, which value increased to 23.99 GPa after a heat treatment at 2000℃. Excellent mechanical properties, thermal stability, and short processing time render the SiCp/SiC composite as a challenging candidate for the high-temperature application.

Keywords: high green density, mechanical property, polymer impregnation and pyrolysis, structural application

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Authors: Bokolombe Pitchou Ngoy, John Mack, Tebello Nyokong

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Synthesis and photochemical studies of BODIPY dyes have been investigated in this work in order to have a broad benchmark of this functionalized photosensitizer for biological applications such as photodynamic therapy or antimicrobial activity. The common acid catalyzed synthetic method was used, and BODIPY dyes were obtained in quite a good yield (25 %) followed by bromination and Knoevenagel condensation to afford the BODIPY dyes conjugated with maximum absorbance in the near-infrared region of the electromagnetic spectrum. The fluorescence lifetimes, fluorescence quantum yield, and Singlet oxygen quantum yield of the conjugated BODIPY dyes were determined in different solvents by using Time Correlation Single Photon Counting (TCSPC), fluorimeter, and Laser Flash Photolysis respectively. It was clearly shown that the singlet oxygen quantum yield was higher in THF followed by DMSO compared to another solvent. The same trend was observed for the fluorescence lifetimes.

Keywords: BODIPY, photodynamic therapy, photosensitizer, singlet oxygen

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Authors: Spartak Makovskyi, Volodymir Klochykhin, Valery Zakharchenko, Konstantyn Balushok, Eduard Tsyvirko, Anatoly Shalomeyev

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A highly efficient, cost-effective grain refinement technique for ML5 magnesium alloy with a commercially pure carbon nanopowder has been proposed. An experimental casting of testing specimens with incremental additions of a carbon nanopowder (0.001 - 0.1 wt.% ) was performed. It has been found that the carbon nanoparticle inoculation of the alloy structure is efficient in a narrow concentration range. The additions of 0.005-0.01 wt. % the grain refiner in the alloy resulted in a maximum increase of ductility properties (appr. Twofold) and improved tensile strength. However, further expansion of the grain refiner content led to the deterioration of the alloy's mechanical properties. In particular, the introduction of 0.1 wt.% of the nanocarbon and more caused internal defects in the metal. The carbon nanoparticle inoculation is a promising way of improving the properties of the Mg-Al-Zn alloys for critical lightweight aerospace applications on an industrial scale.

Keywords: carbon nanopowder, inoculation, melt, tensile strength

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Authors: Vani Chintapally

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The expansion of modest and minimized Global Positioning System (GPS) beneficiaries has prompted most Automatic Vehicle Location (AVL) frameworks today depending solely on satellite-based finding frameworks, as GPS is the most stable usage of these. This paper shows the attributes of a proposed framework for following and dissecting open transport in a run of the mill medium-sized city and complexities the qualities of such a framework to those of broadly useful AVL frameworks. Particular properties of the courses broke down by the AVL framework utilized for the examination of open transport in our study incorporate cyclic vehicle courses, the requirement for particular execution reports, and so forth. This paper particularly manages vehicle movement forecasts and the estimation of station landing time, combined with consequently produced reports on timetable conformance and other execution measures. Another side of the watched issue is proficient exchange of information from the vehicles to the control focus. The pervasiveness of GSM bundle information exchange advancements combined with decreased information exchange expenses have brought on today's AVL frameworks to depend predominantly on parcel information exchange administrations from portable administrators as the correspondences channel in the middle of vehicles and the control focus. This methodology brings numerous security issues up in this conceivably touchy application field.

Keywords: automatic vehicle location (AVL), expectation of landing times, AVL security, data administrations, wise transport frameworks (ITS), guide coordinating

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Authors: Mihir Mouchum Hazarika, Maddali Ramgopal, Souvik Bhattacharyya

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The thermodynamic analysis shows that the performance of the R744 based transcritical refrigeration cycle drops drastically for higher ambient temperatures. This is due to the peculiar s-shape of the isotherm in the supercritical region. However, subcooling of the refrigerant at the gas cooler exit enhances the performance of the R744 based system. The present study is carried out to analyze the R744 based transcritical system with dedicated mechanical subcooling cycle. Based on this proposed cycle, the thermodynamic analysis is performed, and optimum operating parameters are determined. The amount of subcooling and the pressure ratio in the subcooling cycle are the parameters which are needed to be optimized to extract the maximum COP from this proposed cycle. It is expected that this study will be helpful in implementing the dedicated subcooling cycle with R744 based transcritical system to improve the performance.

Keywords: optimization, R744, subcooling, transcritical

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Authors: Deon de Jager, Yahya Zweiri, Dimitrios Makris

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The three most important components in the cognitive architecture for cognitive robotics is memory representation, memory recall, and action-selection performed by the executive. In this paper, action selection, performed by the executive, is defined as a memory quantification and optimization process. The methodology describes the real-time construction of episodic memory through semantic memory optimization. The optimization is performed by set-based particle swarm optimization, using an adaptive entropy memory quantification approach for fitness evaluation. The performance of the approach is experimentally evaluated by simulation, where a UAV is tasked with the collection and delivery of a medical package. The experiments show that the UAV dynamically uses the episodic memory to autonomously control its velocity, while successfully completing its mission.

Keywords: cognitive robotics, semantic memory, episodic memory, maximum entropy principle, particle swarm optimization

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Authors: Andreas Gohs, Reinhold Kosfeld

Abstract:

This study should be of interest for practitioners who want to predict precisely the sales numbers of vehicles equipped with an innovative propulsion technology as well as for researchers interested in applied (regional) time series analysis. The study is based on the numbers of new registrations of pure electric and hybrid cars. Methods of time series analysis like ARIMA are compared with the Bass Diffusion-model concerning their forecasting performances for new registrations in Germany at the national and federal state levels. Especially it is investigated if the additional information content from regional data increases the forecasting accuracy for the national level by adding predictions for the federal states. Results of parameters of the Bass Diffusion Model estimated for Germany and its sixteen federal states are reported. While the focus of this research is on the German market, estimation results are also provided for selected European and other countries. Concerning Bass-parameters and forecasting performances, we get very different results for Germany's federal states and the member states of the European Union. This corresponds to differences across the EU-member states in the adoption process of this innovative technology. Concerning the German market, the adoption is rather proceeded in southern Germany and stays behind in Eastern Germany except for Berlin.

Keywords: bass diffusion model, electric vehicles, forecasting performance, market diffusion

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Authors: Abdullahi Jibrin, Aishetu Abdulkadir

Abstract:

The development of allometric models is crucial to accurate forest biomass/carbon stock assessment. The aim of this study was to develop a set of biomass prediction models that will enable the determination of total tree aboveground biomass for savannah woodland area in Niger State, Nigeria. Based on the data collected through biometric measurements of 1816 trees and destructive sampling of 36 trees, five species specific and one site specific models were developed. The sample size was distributed equally between the five most dominant species in the study site (Vitellaria paradoxa, Irvingia gabonensis, Parkia biglobosa, Anogeissus leiocarpus, Pterocarpus erinaceous). Firstly, the equations were developed for five individual species. Secondly these five species were mixed and were used to develop an allometric equation of mixed species. Overall, there was a strong positive relationship between total tree biomass and the stem diameter. The coefficient of determination (R2 values) ranging from 0.93 to 0.99 P < 0.001 were realised for the models; with considerable low standard error of the estimates (SEE) which confirms that the total tree above ground biomass has a significant relationship with the dbh. The F-test value for the biomass prediction models were also significant at p < 0.001 which indicates that the biomass prediction models are valid. This study recommends that for improved biomass estimates in the study site, the site specific biomass models should preferably be used instead of using generic models.

Keywords: allometriy, biomass, carbon stock , model, regression equation, woodland, inventory

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Authors: Xiuguo Zhao, He Li, Alireza Yazdani, Xiaoning Zheng, Xinxi Xu

Abstract:

Wound infected poses a serious threat to the surgery on the patient during the process of surgery. Understanding the bacteria-carrying particles (BCPs) transportation and deposition in the open surgical wound model play essential role in protecting wound against being infected. Therefore BCPs transportation and deposition in the surgical wound model were investigated using force-coupling method (FCM) based computational fluid dynamics. The BCPs deposition in the wound was strongly associated with BCPs diameter and concentration. The results showed that the rise on the BCPs deposition was increasing not only with the increase of BCPs diameters but also with the increase of the BCPs concentration. BCPs deposition morphology was impacted by the combination of size distribution, airflow patterns and model geometry. The deposition morphology exhibited the characteristic with BCPs deposition on the sidewall in wound model and no BCPs deposition on the bottom of the wound model mainly because the airflow movement in one direction from up to down and then side created by laminar system constructing airflow patterns and then made BCPs hard deposit in the bottom of the wound model due to wound geometry limit. It was also observed that inertial impact becomes a main mechanism of the BCPs deposition. This work may contribute to next study in BCPs deposition limit, as well as wound infected estimation in surgical-site infections.

Keywords: BCPs deposition, computational fluid dynamics, force-coupling method (FCM), numerical simulation, open surgical wound model

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Authors: Yasmin Z. Murad, Haneen M. Abdl-Jabbar

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An experimental program is conducted in this research to investigate the influence of basalt fibers and steel fibers on the flexural behavior of RC beams. Reinforced concrete beams are constructed using steel fiber concrete and basalt fiber concrete. Steel and basalt fibers are included in a percentage of 15% and 2.5% of the total cement weight, respectively. Test results have shown that basalt fibers have increased the load carrying capacity of the beams up to 30% and the maximum deflection to almost 2.4 times that measured in the control specimen. It has also shown that steel fibers have increased the load carrying capacity of the beams up to 47% and the ultimate deflection is almost duplicated compared to the control beam. Steel and basalt fibers have increased the ductility of the reinforced concrete beams.

Keywords: basalt fiber, steel fiber, reinforced concrete beams, flexural behavior

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Authors: Anita Bajpai, Sarah Duan, Ashlee Erskine, Shehzein Khan, Raymond Kramer

Abstract:

Introduction: This research focuses on exploring the beneficial effects if any, of Vitamin-D in reducing the need for supplemental oxygen among hospitalized COVID-19 patients. Two questions are investigated – Q1)Doeshaving a healthy level of baselineVitamin-D 25-OH (≥ 30ng/ml) help,andQ2) does administering Vitamin-D therapy after-the-factduring inpatient hospitalization help? Methods/Study Design: This is a comprehensive, retrospective, observational study of all inpatients at RUHS from March through December 2020 who tested positive for COVID-19 based on real-time reverse transcriptase–polymerase chain reaction assay of nasal and pharyngeal swabs and rapid assay antigen test. To address Q1, we looked atall N1=182 patients whose baseline plasma Vitamin-D 25-OH was known and who needed supplemental oxygen. Of this, a total of 121 patients had a healthy Vitamin-D level of ≥30 ng/mlwhile the remaining 61 patients had low or borderline (≤ 29.9ng/ml)level. Similarly, for Q2, we looked at a total of N2=893 patients who were given supplemental oxygen, of which713 were not given Vitamin-D and 180 were given Vitamin-D therapy. The numerical value of the maximum amount of oxygen flow rate(dependent variable) administered was recorded for each patient. The mean values and associated standard deviations for each group were calculated. Thesetwo sets of independent data served as the basis for independent, two-sample t-Test statistical analysis. To be accommodative of any reasonable benefitof Vitamin-D, ap-value of 0.10(α< 10%) was set as the cutoff point for statistical significance. Results: Given the large sample sizes, the calculated statistical power for both our studies exceeded the customary norm of 80% or better (β< 0.2). For Q1, the mean value for maximumoxygen flow rate for the group with healthybaseline level of Vitamin-D was 8.6 L/min vs.12.6L/min for those with low or borderline levels, yielding a p-value of 0.07 (p < 0.10) with the conclusion that those with a healthy level of baseline Vitamin-D needed statistically significant lower levels of supplemental oxygen. ForQ2, the mean value for a maximum oxygen flow rate for those not administered Vitamin-Dwas 12.5 L/min vs.12.8L/min for those given Vitamin-D, yielding a p-valueof 0.87 (p > 0.10). We thereforeconcludedthat there was no statistically significant difference in the use of oxygen therapy between those who were or were not administered Vitamin-D after-the-fact in the hospital. Discussion/Conclusion: We found that patients who had healthy levels of Vitamin-D at baseline needed statistically significant lower levels of supplemental oxygen. Vitamin-D is well documented, including in a recent article in the Lancet, for its anti-inflammatory role as an adjuvant in the regulation of cytokines and immune cells. Interestingly, we found no statistically significant advantage for giving Vitamin-D to hospitalized patients. It may be a case of “too little too late”. A randomized clinical trial reported in JAMA also did not find any reduction in hospital stay of patients given Vitamin-D. Such conclusions come with a caveat that any delayed marginal benefits may not have materialized promptly in the presence of a significant inflammatory condition. Since Vitamin-D is a low-cost, low-risk option, it may still be useful on an inpatient basis until more definitive findings are established.

Keywords: COVID-19, vitamin-D, supplemental oxygen, vitamin-D in primary care

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Authors: Dongho Kim, Sung Choi, Kyowoong Pee, Youngsik Cho, Seungwoo Jeong, Soo-Ho Kim

Abstract:

This study is about the orbital TIG welding robot system which travels on the guide rail installed on the pipe, and welds and tracks the pipe seam using the LVS (Laser Vision Sensor) joint profile data. The orbital welding robot system consists of the robot, welder, controller, and LVS. Moreover we can define the relationship between welding travel speed and wire feed speed, and we can make the linear equation using the maximum and minimum amount of weld metal. Using the linear equation we can determine the welding travel speed and the wire feed speed accurately corresponding to the area of weld captured by LVS. We applied this orbital TIG welding robot system to the stainless steel or duplex pipe on DSME (Daewoo Shipbuilding and Marine Engineering Co. Ltd.,) shipyard and the result of radiographic test is almost perfect. (Defect rate: 0.033%).

Keywords: adaptive welding, automatic welding, pipe welding, orbital welding, laser vision sensor, LVS, welding D/B

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