Search results for: rolling stock

Authors: Ali Moarrefzadeh

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In metalworking, rolling is a metal forming process in which metal stock is passed through a pair of rolls. Rolling is classified according to the temperature of the metal rolled. If the temperature of the metal is above its recrystallization temperature, then the process is termed as hot rolling. If the temperature of the metal is below its recrystallization temperature, the process is termed as cold rolling. In terms of usage, hot rolling processes more tonnage than any other manufacturing process, and cold rolling processes the most tonnage out of all cold working processes. This article describes the use of advanced tubing inspection NDT methods for boiler and heat exchanger equipment in the petrochemical industry to supplement major turnaround inspections. The methods presented include remote field eddy current, magnetic flux leakage, internal rotary inspection system and eddy current.

Keywords: hot forming, cold forming, metal, rolling, simulation

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Authors: Guillaume Craveur

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This study highlights the impact of an onboard fire for the evacuation of a rolling stock. Two fires models are achieved. The first one is a zone model realized with the CFAST software. Then, this fire is imported in a building EXODUS model in order to determine the evacuation time with effects of fire effluents (temperature, smoke opacity, smoke toxicity) on passengers. The second fire is achieved with Fire Dynamics Simulator software. The fire defined is directly imported in the FDS+Evac model which will permit to determine the evacuation time and effects of fire effluents on passengers. These effects will be compared with tenability criteria defined in some standards in order to see if the situation is acceptable. Different power of fire will be underlined to see from what power source the hazard become unacceptable.

Keywords: fire safety engineering, numerical tools, rolling stock, evacuation

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Authors: Guillaume Craveur

Abstract:

This study shows the opportunity to use numerical tools dedicated to Fire Safety Engineering for the Rolling Stock. Indeed, some lawful requirements can now be demonstrated by using numerical tools. The first part of this study presents the use of modelling evacuation tool to satisfy the criteria of evacuation time for the rolling stock. The buildingEXODUS software is used to model and simulate the evacuation of rolling stock. Firstly, in order to demonstrate the reliability of this tool to calculate the complete evacuation time, a comparative study was achieved between a real test and simulations done with buildingEXODUS. Multiple simulations are performed to capture the stochastic variations in egress times. Then, a new study is done to calculate the complete evacuation time of a train with the same geometry but with a different interior architecture. The second part of this study shows some applications of Computational Fluid Dynamics. This work presents the approach of a multi scales validation of numerical simulations of standardized tests with Fire Dynamics Simulations software developed by the National Institute of Standards and Technology (NIST). This work highlights in first the cone calorimeter test, described in the standard ISO 5660, in order to characterize the fire reaction of materials. The aim of this process is to readjust measurement results from the cone calorimeter test in order to create a data set usable at the seat scale. In the second step, the modelisation concerns the fire seat test described in the standard EN 45545-2. The data set obtained thanks to the validation of the cone calorimeter test was set up in the fire seat test. To conclude with the third step, after controlled the data obtained for the seat from the cone calorimeter test, a larger scale simulation with a real part of train is achieved.

Keywords: fire safety engineering, numerical tools, rolling stock, multi-scales validation

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Authors: M. Heydari Vini

Abstract:

There is a complicated relation between effective input parameters of cold rolling and output rolling force and exit thickness of strips.in many mathematical models, the effect of some rolling parameters have been ignored and the outputs have not a desirable accuracy. In the other hand, there is a special relation among input thickness of strips,the width of the strips,rolling speeds,mandrill tensions and the required exit thickness of strips with rolling force and the real exit thickness of the rolled strip. First of all, in this paper the effective parameters of cold rolling process modeled using an artificial neural network according to the optimum network achieved by using a written program in MATLAB,it has been shown that the prediction of rolling stand parameters with different properties and new dimensions attained from prior rolled strips by an artificial neural network is applicable.

Keywords: cold rolling, artificial neural networks, rolling force, real rolled thickness of strips

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Authors: Alexander Pesin, Denis Pustovoytov, Mikhail Sverdlik

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Materials with ultrafine-grained structure and unique physical and mechanical properties can be obtained by methods of severe plastic deformation, which include processes of asymmetric rolling (AR). Asymmetric rolling is a very effective way to create ultrafine-grained structures of metals and alloys. Since the asymmetric rolling is a continuous process, it has great potential for industrial production of ultrafine-grained structure sheets. Basic principles of asymmetric rolling are described in detail in scientific literature. In this work finite element modeling of asymmetric rolling and metal forming processes in multiroll gauge was performed. Parameters of the processes which allow achieving significant values of shear strain were defined. The results of the study will be useful for the research of the evolution of ultra-fine metal structure in asymmetric rolling.

Keywords: asymmetric rolling, equivalent strain, FEM, multiroll gauge, profile, severe plastic deformation, shear strain, sheet

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Authors: Mohammadhadi Mirmohammadi, Reza Safian, Hossein Haddad

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This paper presents an innovative solution for complex multi-objective optimization problem which is a part of efforts toward maximizing rolling mill throughput and minimizing processing costs in tandem cold rolling. This computational intelligence based optimization has been applied to the rolling schedules of tandem cold rolling mill. This method involves the combination of two derivative-free optimization procedures in the form of nested loops. The first optimization loop is based on Improving Hit and Run method which focus on balance of power, force and reduction distribution in rolling schedules. The second loop is a real-coded genetic algorithm based optimization procedure which optimizes energy consumption and productivity. An experimental result of application to five stand tandem cold rolling mill is presented.

Keywords: derivative-free optimization, Improving Hit and Run method, real-coded genetic algorithm, rolling schedules of tandem cold rolling mill

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Authors: Cai-Wan Chang-Jian, Han-Ting Tsai

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In the processing industry of metal forming, rolling is the most used method of processing. In a cold rolling factory of stainless steel, there occurs a product defect on temper rolling process within cold rolling. It is called 'roll marks', which is a phenomenon of undesirable flatness problem. In this research, we performed a series of experimental measurements on the roll marks, and we used optical sensors to measure it and compared the vibration frequency of roll marks with the vibration frequency of key components in the skin pass mill. We found there is less correlation between the above mentioned data. Finally, we took measurement on the motor driver in rolling mill. We found that the undulation frequency of motor could match with the frequency of roll marks, and then we have confirmed that the motor’s undulation caused roll marks.

Keywords: roll mark, plane strain, rolling mill, stainless steel

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Authors: A. Pesin, D. Pustovoytov, M. Sverdlik

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During production of rolled steel strips the quality of the surface of finished strips influences steel consumption considerably. The most critical areas for crack formation during rolling are lateral sides of slabs. Deformation behaviors of the slab edge in roughing rolling process were analyzed by the finite element method with Deform-3D. In this study our focus is the analysis of the influence of edger’s form on the possibility to decrease surface cracking during roughing hot rolling.

Keywords: roughing hot rolling, FEM, crack, bulging

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Authors: Tabassum Riaz

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This study provides a complete examination of the stock prices behavior in the Karachi stock exchange. It examines that whether Karachi stock exchange can be described as mean reversion or not. For this purpose daily, weekly and monthly index data from Karachi stock exchange ranging from period July 1, 1997 to July 2, 2011 was taken. After employing the Multiple variance ratio and unit root tests it is concluded that stock market follow mean reversion behavior and hence have reverting trend which opens the door for the active invest management. Thus technical analysis may be help to identify the potential areas for value creation.

Keywords: mean reversion, random walk, technical analysis, Karachi stock exchange

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Authors: Gultekin Gurcay

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In this paper, effects and responses of stock were analyzed. This analysis was done periodically. The dimensions of the financial crisis impact on the stock market were investigated by GARCH model. In this context, S&P 500 stock market is modeled with DAX, NIKKEI and BIST100. In this way, The effects of the changing in S&P 500 stock market were examined on European and Asian stock markets. Conditional variance coefficient will be calculated through garch model. The scope of the crisis period, the conditional covariance coefficient will be analyzed comparatively.

Keywords: conditional variance coefficient, financial crisis, garch model, stock market

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Authors: Z. Y. Jiang, H. B. Tibar, A. Aljabri

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Optimisation of the physical and mechanical properties of cold rolled thin strips is achieved by controlling the rolling parameters. In this paper, the factors affecting the asymmetrical cold rolling of thin low carbon steel strip have been studied at a speed ratio of 1.1 without lubricant applied. The effect of rolling parameters on the resulting microstructure was also investigated. It was found that under dry condition, work roll shifting and work roll cross angle can improve the strip profile, and the result is more significant with an increase of work roll cross angle rather than that of work roll shifting. However, there was no obvious change in microstructure. In addition, effects of rolling parameters on strip profile and microstructure have also been discussed.

Keywords: rolling speed ratio, microstructure, work roll cross angle, work roll shifting

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Authors: H. B. Tibar, Z. Y. Jiang

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In this study, the influence of rolling process parameters such as the work roll cross angle and work roll shifting value on the strip shape and profile of aluminum have been investigated under dry conditions at a speed ratio of 1.3 using Hille 100 experimental mill. The strip profile was found to improve significantly with increase in work roll cross angle from 0^o to 1^o, with an associated decrease in rolling force. The effect of roll shifting (from 0 to 8mm) was not as significant as the roll cross angle. However, an increase in work roll shifting value achieved a similar decrease in rolling force as that of work roll cross angle. The effect of work roll shifting was also found to be maximum at an optimum roll speed of 0.0986 m/s for the desired thickness. Of all these parameters, the most significant effect of the strip shape profile was observed with variation of work roll cross angle. However, the rolling force can be a significantly reduced by either increasing the the work roll cross angle or work roll shifting.

Keywords: rolling speed ratio, strip shape, work roll cross angle, work roll shifting

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Authors: Abdulrahman Aljabri, Essam R. I. Mahmoud, Hamad Almohamedi, Zhengyi Jiang

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Cold rolled thin strip has received intensive attention through technological and theoretical progress in the rolling process, as well as researchers have focused on its control during rolling as an essential parameter for producing thinner strip with good shape and profile. An advanced approach has been proposed to analysis the thin strip profile in cold rolling of pair roll crossing and shifting mill using Finite Element Analysis (FEA) with an ALE technique. The ALE (Arbitrary Lagrangian-Eulerian) techniques to enable more flexibility of the ALE technique in the adjustment of the finite element mesh, which provides a significant tool for simulating the thin strip under realistic rolling process constraint and provide accurate model results. The FEA can provide theoretical basis for the 3D model of controlling the strip shape and profile in thin strip rolling, and deliver an optimal rolling process parameter, and suggest corrective changes during cold rolling of thin strip.

Keywords: pair roll crossing, work roll shifting, strip shape and profile, finite element modeling

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Authors: Yaojun Wang, Yaoqing Wang

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Stock selection is an important decision-making problem. Many machine learning and data mining technologies are employed to build automatic stock-selection system. A profitable stock-selection system should consider the stock’s investment value and the market timing. In this paper, we present a hybrid system including both engage for stock selection. This system uses a case-based reasoning (CBR) model to execute the stock classification, uses a decision-tree model to help with market timing and stock selection. The experiments show that the performance of this hybrid system is better than that of other techniques regarding to the classification accuracy, the average return and the Sharpe ratio.

Keywords: case-based reasoning, decision tree, stock selection, machine learning

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Authors: Seok Hong Min, Tae Kwon Ha

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In the present study, hot-rolled sheets of Mg-xZn alloy s(x=6, 8, and 10 weight percent) were produced by employing casting, homogenization heat treatment, hot rolling, and annealing processes subsequently. Effect of Zn addition on the microstructure and mechanical properties of Mg-Zn alloys were also investigated in each process. Through calculation of phase equilibria of Mg-Zn alloys, solution treatment temperature was decided as temperatures from 350 oC, where supersaturated solid solution can be obtained. After solution treatment, hot rolling was successfully conducted by reduction of 60%. Compression and tension tests were carried out at room temperature on the samples as-cast, solution treated, hot-rolled and recrystallized after rolling.

Keywords: Mg-Zn alloy, heat treatment, microstructure, mechanical properties, hot rolling

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Authors: Nipun Manirajan, Heeralal Gargama, Sushil Guhe, Manoj Prabhakaran

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In railway industry, train sets are designed based on contractual requirements (mission profile), where reliability targets are measured in terms of mean distance between failures (MDBF). However, during the beginning of revenue services, trains do not achieve the designed mission profile distance (mileage) within the timeframe due to infrastructure constraints, scarcity of commuters or other operational challenges thereby not respecting the original design inputs. Since trains do not run sufficiently and do not achieve the designed mileage within the specified time, car builder has a risk of not achieving the contractual MDBF target. This paper proposes a constant failure rate based model to deal with the situations where mileage accumulation is not a part of the design mission profile. The model provides appropriate MDBF target to be demonstrated based on actual accumulated mileage. A case study of rolling stock running in the field is undertaken to analyze the failure data and MDBF target demonstration during low mileage accumulation. The results of case study prove that with the proposed method, reliability targets are achieved under low mileage accumulation.

Keywords: mean distance between failures, mileage-based reliability, reliability target appropriations, rolling stock reliability

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Authors: Sumit Sen, Sohan Khedekar, Umang Shinde, Shivam Bhargava

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This study has been undertaken to investigate whether the deep learning models are able to predict the future stock prices by training the model with the historical stock price data. Since this work required time series analysis, various models are present today to perform time series analysis such as Recurrent Neural Network LSTM, ARIMA and Facebook Prophet. Applying these models the movement of stock price of stocks are predicted and also tried to provide the future prediction of the stock price of a stock. Final product will be a stock price prediction web application that is developed for providing the user the ease of analysis of the stocks and will also provide the predicted stock price for the next seven days.

Keywords: Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average, Deep Learning, Long Short Term Memory, Time-series

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Authors: Tijjani Bashir Musa

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The recent global crisis which suddenly results to Nigerian stock market crash revealed some peculiarities of Nigerian firms. Some firms in Nigeria are performing but their stock prices are not increasing while some firms are at the brink of collapse but their stock prices are increasing. Thus, this study examines the relationship between firm performance and stock price in Nigeria. The study covered the period of 2005 to 2009. This period is the period of stock boom and also marked the period of stock market crash as a result of global financial meltdown. The study is a panel study. A total of 140 firms were sampled from 216 firms listed on the Nigerian Stock Exchange (NSE). Data were collected from secondary source. These data were divided into four strata comprising the most performing stock, the least performing stock, most performing firms and the least performing firms. Each stratum contains 35 firms with characteristic of most performing stock, most performing firms, least performing stock and least performing firms. Multiple linear regression models were used to analyse the data while statistical/econometrics package of Stata 11.0 version was used to run the data. The study found that, relationship exists between selected firm performance parameters (operating efficiency, firm profit, earning per share and working capital) and stock price. As such firm performance gave sufficient information or has predictive power on stock prices movements in Nigeria for all the years under study.. The study recommends among others that Managers of firms in Nigeria should formulate policies and exert effort geared towards improving firm performance that will enhance stock prices movements.

Keywords: firm, Nigeria, performance, stock price

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Authors: Eti Mizrahi, Gizem İntepe

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The geographical location of Turkey that stretches from Asia to Europe and Russia to Africa makes it an important logistics hub in the region. Although logistics is a developing sector in Turkey, the stock market representation is still low with only two companies listed in Turkey’s stock exchange since 2010. In this paper, we use the daily values of these two listed stocks as a benchmark for the logistics sector. After modeling logistics stock prices, an empirical examination is conducted between the existing logistics indices and these stock prices. The paper investigates whether the measures of logistics stocks are correlated with newly available logistics indices. It also shows the reflection of the economic activity in the logistics sector on the stock exchange market. The results presented in this paper are the first analysis of the behavior of logistics indices and logistics stock prices for Turkey.

Keywords: forecasting, logistic stock exchange, modeling, Africa

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Authors: Ying Guo, Miaochan Li, David Yang, Xiao-Yan Li

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This paper examines the relevance of accounting information to stock prices at different periods using manufacturing companies listed in China’s Growth Enterprise Market (GEM). We find that both the average stock price at fiscal year-end and the average stock price one month after fiscal year-end are more relevant to the accounting information than the closing stock price four months after fiscal year-end. This implies that Chinese stock markets react before the public disclosure of accounting information, which may be due to information leak before official announcements. Our findings confirm that accounting information is relevant to stock prices for Chinese listed manufacturing companies, which is a critical question to answer for investors who have interest in Chinese companies.

Keywords: accounting information, response time, value relevance, stock price

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Authors: Piyas Palit, Urbi Pal, Jitendra Mathur, Santanu Das

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Bearing is an important machinery part in the industry. When bearings fail to meet their expected life the consequences are increased downtime, loss of revenue and missed the delivery. This article describes the failure of a gearbox bearing in rolling contact fatigue. The investigation consists of visual observation, chemical analysis, characterization of microstructures using optical microscopes and hardness test. The present study also considers bearing life as well as the operational condition of bearings. Surface-initiated rolling contact fatigue, leading to a surface failure known as pitting, is a life-limiting failure mode in many modern machine elements, particularly rolling element bearings. Metallography analysis of crack propagation, crack morphology was also described. Indication of fatigue spalling in the ferrography test was also discussed. The analysis suggested the probable reasons for such kind of failure in operation. This type of spalling occurred due to (1) heavier external loading condition or (2) exceeds its service life.

Keywords: bearing, rolling contact fatigue, bearing life

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Authors: Hy Dang, Bo Mei

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The development of machine learning methods and techniques has opened doors for investigation in many areas such as medicines, economics, finance, etc. One active research area involving machine learning is stock market prediction. This research paper tries to consider multiple techniques and methods for stock movement prediction using historical price or price factors. The paper explores the effectiveness of some deep learning frameworks for forecasting stock. Moreover, an architecture (TimeStock) is proposed which takes the representation of time into account apart from the price information itself. Our model achieves a promising result that shows a potential approach for the stock movement prediction problem.

Keywords: classification, machine learning, time representation, stock prediction

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Authors: Jianrong Wu, Xuan Fu, Akihiro Higashi, Zhiming Tan

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CMOS image sensors with a rolling shutter are used broadly in the digital cameras embedded in mobile devices. The rolling shutter suffers the flicker artifacts from the fluorescent lamp, and it could be observed easily. In this paper, the characteristics of illumination flicker in motion case were analyzed, and two efficient detection methods based on matching fragment selection were proposed. According to the experimental results, our methods could achieve as high as 100% accuracy in static scene, and at least 97% in motion scene.

Keywords: illumination flicker, embedded camera, rolling shutter, detection

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Authors: Taher El-Bitar, Maha El-Meligy, Eman El-Shenawy, Almosilhy Almosilhy, Nader Dawood

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The steel contains 0.3% C and 0.004% B, beside Mn, Cr, Mo, and Ni. The alloy was processed by using 20-ton capacity electric arc furnace (EAF), and then refined by ladle furnace (LF). Liquid steel was cast as rectangular ingots. Dilatation test showed the critical transformation temperatures Ac₁, Ac₃, M_s and M_f as 716, 835, 356, and 218 °C. The ingots were austenitized and soaked and then rough rolled to thin slabs with 80 mm thickness. The thin slabs were then reheated and soaked for finish rolling to 6.0 mm thickness plates. During the rough rolling, the roll force increases as a result of rolling at temperatures less than recrystallization temperature. However, during finish rolling, the steel reflects initially continuous static recrystallization after which it shows strain hardening due to fall of temperature. It was concluded that, the steel plates were successfully heat treated by quenching-tempering at 250 ºC for 20 min.

Keywords: armor steel, austenitizing, critical transformation temperatures (CTTs), dilatation curve, martensite, quenching, rough and finish rolling processes, soaking, tempering, thermo-mechanical processing

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Authors: Carol Anne Hargreaves

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A key issue in stock investment is how to select representative features for stock selection. The objective of this paper is to firstly determine whether an automated stock investment system, using machine learning techniques, may be used to identify a portfolio of growth stocks that are highly likely to provide returns better than the stock market index. The second objective is to identify the technical features that best characterize whether a stock’s price is likely to go up and to identify the most important factors and their contribution to predicting the likelihood of the stock price going up. Unsupervised machine learning techniques, such as cluster analysis, were applied to the stock data to identify a cluster of stocks that was likely to go up in price – portfolio 1. Next, the principal component analysis technique was used to select stocks that were rated high on component one and component two – portfolio 2. Thirdly, a supervised machine learning technique, the logistic regression method, was used to select stocks with a high probability of their price going up – portfolio 3. The predictive models were validated with metrics such as, sensitivity (recall), specificity and overall accuracy for all models. All accuracy measures were above 70%. All portfolios outperformed the market by more than eight times. The top three stocks were selected for each of the three stock portfolios and traded in the market for one month. After one month the return for each stock portfolio was computed and compared with the stock market index returns. The returns for all three stock portfolios was 23.87% for the principal component analysis stock portfolio, 11.65% for the logistic regression portfolio and 8.88% for the K-means cluster portfolio while the stock market performance was 0.38%. This study confirms that an automated stock investment system using machine learning techniques can identify top performing stock portfolios that outperform the stock market.

Keywords: machine learning, stock market trading, logistic regression, cluster analysis, factor analysis, decision trees, neural networks, automated stock investment system

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Authors: Brian Basvi

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A technique for analyzing a security's intrinsic value is called fundamental analysis. It involves looking at relevant financial, economic, and other qualitative and quantitative aspects. Earnings Per Share (EPS), a crucial metric in fundamental analysis, is calculated by dividing a company's net income by the total number of outstanding shares. With more than 70 listed businesses, the Zimbabwe Stock Exchange (ZSE) is the primary stock exchange in Zimbabwe. This study applies the EPS financial ratio and stock valuation techniques to historical stock data from 68 companies listed on the Zimbabwe Stock Exchange. According to a ZSE study, EPS significantly affects share prices that are listed on the market. The study's objective was to assess how fundamental analysis affected the idea of EPS in ZSE stock valuation. It concluded that EPS is an important consideration for investors when they make judgments about their investments. According to the study's findings, fundamental analysis is a useful tool for ZSE investors since it offers insightful information about a company's financial performance and aids in decision-making. Investors can have a better understanding of a company's underlying worth and prospects for future growth by looking into EPS and other basic aspects.

Keywords: fundamental analysis, stock valuation, EPS, share pricing

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Authors: Rosdyana Mangir Irawan Kusuma, Wei-Chun Kao, Ho-Thi Trang, Yu-Yen Ou, Kai-Lung Hua

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Stock market prediction is still a challenging problem because there are many factors that affect the stock market price such as company news and performance, industry performance, investor sentiment, social media sentiment, and economic factors. This work explores the predictability in the stock market using deep convolutional network and candlestick charts. The outcome is utilized to design a decision support framework that can be used by traders to provide suggested indications of future stock price direction. We perform this work using various types of neural networks like convolutional neural network, residual network and visual geometry group network. From stock market historical data, we converted it to candlestick charts. Finally, these candlestick charts will be feed as input for training a convolutional neural network model. This convolutional neural network model will help us to analyze the patterns inside the candlestick chart and predict the future movements of the stock market. The effectiveness of our method is evaluated in stock market prediction with promising results; 92.2% and 92.1 % accuracy for Taiwan and Indonesian stock market dataset respectively.

Keywords: candlestick chart, deep learning, neural network, stock market prediction

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Authors: Jitendra Aswani

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In the first section of this study, impact of Global Financial Crisis (GFC) on the synchronization of fourteen Asian Stock Markets (ASM’s) of countries like Hong Kong, India, Thailand, Singapore, Taiwan, Pakistan, Bangladesh, South Korea, Malaysia, Indonesia, Japan, China, Philippines and Sri Lanka, has been analysed using the network science and its metrics like degree of node, clustering coefficient and network density. Then in the second section of this study by introducing the US stock market in existing network and developing a Minimum Spanning Tree (MST) spread of crisis from the US stock market to Asian Stock Markets (ASM) has been explained. Data used for this study is adjusted the closing price of these indices from 6th January, 2000 to 15th September, 2013 which further divided into three sub-periods: Pre, during and post-crisis. Using network analysis, it is found that Asian stock markets become more interdependent during the crisis than pre and post crisis, and also Hong Kong, India, South Korea and Japan are systemic important stock markets in the Asian region. Therefore, failure or shock to any of these systemic important stock markets can cause contagion to another stock market of this region. This study is useful for global investors’ in portfolio management especially during the crisis period and also for policy makers in formulating the financial regulation norms by knowing the connections between the stock markets and how the system of these stock markets changes in crisis period and after that.

Keywords: global financial crisis, Asian stock markets, network science, Kruskal algorithm

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Authors: Mario Zgela

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Application of Benford’s Law is very rarely covered in the field of stock market analysis, especially in percentage change of stock market indices. Deutscher Aktien IndeX (DAX) is very important stock market index of Frankfurt Deutsche Börse which serves as underlying basis for large number of financial instruments. It is calculated for selected 30 German blue chips stocks. In this paper, Benford's Law first digit test is applied on 10 year DAX daily percentage changes in order to check compliance. Deviations of 10 year DAX percentage changes set as well as distortions of certain subsets from Benford's Law distribution are detected. It is possible that deviations are the outcome of speculations; and psychological influence should not be eliminated.

Keywords: Benford's Law, DAX, index percentage changes, stock market

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Authors: Oyindamola Kayode, Sarah George, Roberto Borrageiro, Mike Shirran

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A phenomenon identified by our industrial partner has experienced sag on AA3104 can body stock (CBS) transfer bar during transportation of the slab from the breakdown mill to the finishing mill. Excessive sag results in bottom scuffing of the slab onto the roller table, resulting in surface defects on the final product. It has been found that increasing the strain rate on the breakdown mill final pass results in a slab resistant to sag. The creep response for materials hot deformed at different Zener–Holloman parameter values needs to be evaluated experimentally to gain better understanding of the operating mechanism. This study investigates this identified phenomenon through laboratory simulation of the breakdown mill conditions for various strain rates by utilizing the Gleeble at UCT Centre for Materials Engineering. The experiment will determine the creep response for a range of conditions as well as quantifying the associated material microstructure (sub-grain size, grain structure etc). The experimental matrices were determined based on experimental conditions approximate to industrial hot breakdown rolling and carried out on the Gleeble 3800 at the Centre for Materials Engineering, University of Cape Town. Plane strain compression samples were used for this series of tests at an applied load that allow for better contact and exaggerated creep displacement. A tantalum barrier layer was used for increased conductivity and decreased risk of anvil welding. One set of tests with no in-situ hold time was performed, where the samples were quenched after deformation. The samples were retained for microstructure analysis of the micrographs from the light microscopy (LM), quantitative data and images from scanning electron microscopy (SEM) and energy dispersive X-ray (EDX), sub-grain size and grain structure from electron back scattered diffraction (EBSD).

Keywords: aluminium alloy, can-body stock, hot rolling, creep response, Zener-Hollomon parameter

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