Search results for: extreme rainfall events

Authors: Kamal Kumar Tanti, Nayan Moni Saikia, Markynti Swer

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This study aims to investigate and analyse the trends and variability of rainfall in Shillong and its nearby areas, located in Meghalaya hills of North-East India; which is geographically a neighbouring area to the wettest places of the Earth, i.e., Cherrapunji and Mawsynram. The analysis of variability and trends to annual, seasonal, monthly and daily rainfall was carried out, using the data collected from the IMD station at Shillong; thereby attempting to highlight whether rainfall in Shillong area has been increasing or decreasing over the years. Rainfall variability coefficient is utilized to compare the current rainfall trend of the area with its past rainfall trends. The present study also aims to analyse the frequency of occurrence of extreme rainfall events over the region. These studies will help us to establish a correlation between the current rainfall trend and climate change scenario of the study area.

Keywords: trends and variability of rainfall, annual, seasonal, monthly and daily rainfall, rainfall variability coefficient, extreme rainfall events, climate change, Shillong, Cherrapunji, Mawsynram

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Authors: Isaac Mugume, Charles Basalirwa, Daniel Waiswa, Mary Nsabagwa, Triphonia Jacob Ngailo, Joachim Reuder, Sch¨attler Ulrich, Musa Semujju

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The Numerical weather prediction (NWP) models are considered powerful tools for guiding quantitative rainfall prediction. A couple of NWP models exist and are used at many operational weather prediction centers. This study considers two models namely the Consortium for Small–scale Modeling (COSMO) model and the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model. It compares the models’ ability to predict rainfall over Uganda for the period 21st April 2013 to 10th May 2013 using the root mean square (RMSE) and the mean error (ME). In comparing the performance of the models, this study assesses their ability to predict light rainfall events and extreme rainfall events. All the experiments used the default parameterization configurations and with same horizontal resolution (7 Km). The results show that COSMO model had a tendency of largely predicting no rain which explained its under–prediction. The COSMO model (RMSE: 14.16; ME: -5.91) presented a significantly (p = 0.014) higher magnitude of error compared to the WRF model (RMSE: 11.86; ME: -1.09). However the COSMO model (RMSE: 3.85; ME: 1.39) performed significantly (p = 0.003) better than the WRF model (RMSE: 8.14; ME: 5.30) in simulating light rainfall events. All the models under–predicted extreme rainfall events with the COSMO model (RMSE: 43.63; ME: -39.58) presenting significantly higher error magnitudes than the WRF model (RMSE: 35.14; ME: -26.95). This study recommends additional diagnosis of the models’ treatment of deep convection over the tropics.

Keywords: comparative performance, the COSMO model, the WRF model, light rainfall events, extreme rainfall events

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Authors: Orpita U. Laz, Ataur Rahman

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Climate change will affect various aspects of hydrological cycle such as rainfall. A change in rainfall will affect flood magnitude and frequency in future which will affect the design and operation of hydraulic structures. In this paper, trends in sub-hourly, sub-daily, and daily extreme rainfall events from 18 rainfall stations located in Tasmania, Australia are examined. Two non-parametric tests (Mann-Kendall and Spearman’s Rho) are applied to detect trends at 10%, 5%, and 1% significance levels. Sub-hourly (6, 12, 18, and 30 minutes) annual maximum rainfall events have been found to experience statistically significant upward trends at 10 % level of significance. However, sub-daily durations (1 hour, 3 and 12 hours) exhibit decreasing trends and no trends exists for longer duration rainfall events (e.g. 24 and 72 hours). Some of the durations (e.g. 6 minutes and 6 hours) show similar results (with upward trends) for both the tests. For 12, 18, 60 minutes and 3 hours durations both the tests show similar downward trends. This finding has important implication for Tasmania in the design of urban infrastructure where shorter duration rainfall events are more relevant for smaller urban catchments such as parking lots, roof catchments and smaller sub-divisions.

Keywords: climate change, design rainfall, Mann-Kendall test, trends, Spearman’s Rho, Tasmania

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Authors: Emmanuel Iyamuremye

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Extreme rainfall events have caused significant damage to agriculture, ecology, and infrastructure, disruption of human activities, injury, and loss of life. They also have significant social, economic, and environmental consequences because they considerably damage urban as well as rural areas. Early detection of extreme maximum rainfall helps to implement strategies and measures, before they occur, hence mitigating the consequences. Extreme value theory has been used widely in modeling extreme rainfall and in various disciplines, such as financial markets, the insurance industry, failure cases. Climatic extremes have been analyzed by using either generalized extreme value (GEV) or generalized Pareto (GP) distributions, which provides evidence of the importance of modeling extreme rainfall from different regions of the world. In this paper, we focused on Peak Over Thresholds approach, where the Poisson-generalized Pareto distribution is considered as the proper distribution for the study of the exceedances. This research also considers the use of the generalized Pareto (GP) distribution with a Poisson model for arrivals to describe peaks over a threshold. The research used statistical techniques to fit models that used to predict extreme rainfall in Kigali. The results indicate that the proposed Poisson-GP distribution provides a better fit to maximum monthly rainfall data. Further, the Poisson-GP models are able to estimate various return levels. The research also found a slow increase in return levels for maximum monthly rainfall for higher return periods, and further, the intervals are increasingly wider as the return period is increasing.

Keywords: exceedances, extreme value theory, generalized Pareto distribution, Poisson generalized Pareto distribution

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Authors: Willy Mbenza, Sho Kenjiro

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Increasing efforts are directed towards a better understanding and foreknowledge of extreme precipitation likelihood, given the adverse effects associated with their occurrence. This knowledge plays a crucial role in long-term planning and the formulation of effective emergency response. However, predicting extreme events reliably presents a challenge to conventional empirical/statistics due to the involvement of numerous variables spanning different time and space scales. In the recent time, Machine Learning has emerged as a promising tool for predicting the dynamics of extreme precipitation. ML techniques enables the consideration of both local and regional physical variables that have a strong influence on the likelihood of extreme precipitation. These variables encompasses factors such as air temperature, soil moisture, specific humidity, aerosol concentration, among others. In this study, we develop an ML model that incorporates both local and regional variables while establishing a robust relationship between physical variables and precipitation during the downscaling process. Furthermore, the model provides valuable information on the frequency and duration of a given intensity of precipitation.

Keywords: machine learning (ML), predictions, rainfall events, regional variables

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Authors: Renato Morbidelli, Carla Saltalippi, Alessia Flammini, Marco Cifrodelli, Corrado Corradini

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The trend of magnitude and frequency of extreme rainfalls seems to be different depending on the investigated area of the world. In this work, the impact of climate change on extreme rainfalls in Umbria, an inland region of central Italy, is examined using data recorded during the period 1921-2015 by 10 representative rain gauge stations. The study area is characterized by a complex orography, with altitude ranging from 200 to more than 2000 m asl. The climate is very different from zone to zone, with mean annual rainfall ranging from 650 to 1450 mm and mean annual air temperature from 3.3 to 14.2°C. Over the past 15 years, this region has been affected by four significant droughts as well as by six dangerous flood events, all with very large impact in economic terms. A least-squares linear trend analysis of annual maximums over 60 time series selected considering 6 different durations (1 h, 3 h, 6 h, 12 h, 24 h, 48 h) showed about 50% of positive and 50% of negative cases. For the same time series the non-parametrical Mann-Kendall test with a significance level 0.05 evidenced only 3% of cases characterized by a negative trend and no positive case. Further investigations have also demonstrated that the variance and covariance of each time series can be considered almost stationary. Therefore, the analysis on the magnitude of extreme rainfalls supplies the indication that an evident trend in the change of values in the Umbria region does not exist. However, also the frequency of rainfall events, with particularly high rainfall depths values, occurred during a fixed period has also to be considered. For all selected stations the 2-day rainfall events that exceed 50 mm were counted for each year, starting from the first monitored year to the end of 2015. Also, this analysis did not show predominant trends. Specifically, for all selected rain gauge stations the annual number of 2-day rainfall events that exceed the threshold value (50 mm) was slowly decreasing in time, while the annual cumulated rainfall depths corresponding to the same events evidenced trends that were not statistically significant. Overall, by using a wide available dataset and adopting simple methods, the influence of climate change on the heavy rainfalls in the Umbria region is not detected.

Keywords: climate changes, rainfall extremes, rainfall magnitude and frequency, central Italy

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Authors: Noratiqah Mohd Ariff, Abdul Aziz Jemain, Mohd Aftar Abu Bakar

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The construction of Intensity-Duration-Frequency (IDF) curves is one of the most common and useful tools in order to design hydraulic structures and to provide a mathematical relationship between rainfall characteristics. IDF curves, especially those in Peninsular Malaysia, are often built using moving windows of rainfalls. However, these windows do not represent the actual rainfall events since the duration of rainfalls is usually prefixed. Hence, instead of using moving windows, this study aims to find regionalized distributions for IDF curves of extreme rainfalls based on storm events. Homogeneity test is performed on annual maximum of storm intensities to identify homogeneous regions of storms in Peninsular Malaysia. The L-moment method is then used to regionalized Generalized Extreme Value (GEV) distribution of these annual maximums and subsequently. IDF curves are constructed using the regional distributions. The differences between the IDF curves obtained and IDF curves found using at-site GEV distributions are observed through the computation of the coefficient of variation of root mean square error, mean percentage difference and the coefficient of determination. The small differences implied that the construction of IDF curves could be simplified by finding a general probability distribution of each region. This will also help in constructing IDF curves for sites with no rainfall station.

Keywords: IDF curves, L-moments, regionalization, storm events

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Authors: Tasir Khan, Yejuan Wang

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The study of extreme rainfall events is very important for flood management in river basins and the design of water conservancy infrastructure. Evaluation of quantiles of annual maximum rainfall (AMRF) is required in different environmental fields, agriculture operations, renewable energy sources, climatology, and the design of different structures. Therefore, the annual maximum rainfall (AMRF) was performed at different stations in Pakistan. Multiple probability distributions, log normal (LN), generalized extreme value (GEV), Gumbel (max), and Pearson type3 (P3) were used to find out the most appropriate distributions in different stations. The L moments method was used to evaluate the distribution parameters. Anderson darling test, Kolmogorov- Smirnov test, and chi-square test showed that two distributions, namely GUM (max) and LN, were the best appropriate distributions. The quantile estimate of a multi-parameter PD offers extreme rainfall through a specific location and is therefore important for decision-makers and planners who design and construct different structures. This result provides an indication of these multi-parameter distribution consequences for the study of sites and peak flow prediction and the design of hydrological maps. Therefore, this discovery can support hydraulic structure and flood management.

Keywords: RAMSE, multiple frequency analysis, annual maximum rainfall, L-moments

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Authors: Chakrit Chotamonsak

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This study was analyzed changes in temperature and precipitation extremes in northern Thailand for the period 1981-2011.The study includes an analysis of the average and trends of changes in temperature and precipitation using 22 climate indices, related to the intensity, frequency and duration of extreme climate events. The results showed that the averaged trend of maximum, minimum and mean temperature is likely to increase over the study area in rate of 0.5, 0.9 and 0.7 °C in last 30 years. Changes in temperature at nighttime, then rising at a rate higher daytime is resulting to decline of diurnal temperature range throughout the area. Trend of changes in average precipitation during the year 1981-2011 is expected to increase at an average rate of 21%. The intensity of extreme temperature events is increasing almost all station. In particular, the changes of the night were unusually hot has intensified throughout the region. In some provinces such as Chiang Mai and Lampang are likely be faced with the severity of hot days and hot nights in increasing rate. Frequency of extreme temperature events are likely to increase each station, especially hot days, and hot nights are increasing at a rate of 2.38 and 3.58 days per decade. Changes in the cold days and cold nights are declining at a rate of 0.82 and 3.03 days per decade. The duration of extreme temperature events is expected to increase the events hot in every station. An average of 17.8 days per decade for the number of consecutive cold winter nights likely shortens the rate of 2.90 days per decade. The analysis of the precipitation indices reveals the intensity of extreme precipitation is increasing almost across the region. The intensify expressed the heavy rain in one day (Rx1day) and very heavy rain accumulated in 5 days (RX5day) which is likely to increase, and very heavy rainfall is likely to increase in intensity. Frequency of extreme precipitation events is likely to increase over the station. The average frequency of heavy precipitation events increased xxx days per decade. The duration of extreme precipitation events, such as the consecutive dry days are likely to reduce the numbers almost all station while the consecutive wet days tends to increase and decrease at different numbers in different areas.

Keywords: climate extreme, temperature extreme, precipitation extreme, Northern Thailand

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Authors: Saoussen Dhib, Chris M. Mannaerts, Zoubeida Bargaoui, Ben H. P. Maathuis, Petra Budde

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In this study, a new method to delineate rain areas in northern Tunisia is presented. The proposed approach is based on the blending of the geostationary Meteosat Second Generation (MSG) infrared channel (IR) with the low-earth orbiting passive Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) Microwave Imager (TMI). To blend this two products, we need to apply two main steps. Firstly, we have to identify the rainy pixels. This step is achieved based on a classification using MSG channel IR 10.8 and the water vapor WV 0.62, applying a threshold on the temperature difference of less than 11 Kelvin which is an approximation of the clouds that have a high likelihood of precipitation. The second step consists on fitting the relation between IR cloud top temperature with the TMI rain rates. The correlation coefficient of these two variables has a negative tendency, meaning that with decreasing temperature there is an increase in rainfall intensity. The fitting equation will be applied for the whole day of MSG 15 minutes interval images which will be summed. To validate this combined product, daily extreme rainfall events occurred during the period 2007-2009 were selected, using a threshold criterion for large rainfall depth (> 50 mm/day) occurring at least at one rainfall station. Inverse distance interpolation method was applied to generate rainfall maps for the drier summer season (from May to October) and the wet winter season (from November to April). The evaluation results of the estimated rainfall combining MSG and TMI was very encouraging where all the events were detected rainy and the correlation coefficients were much better than previous evaluated products over the study area such as MSGMPE and PERSIANN products. The combined product showed a better performance during wet season. We notice also an overestimation of the maximal estimated rain for many events.

Keywords: combination, extreme, rainfall, TMI-MSG, Tunisia

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Authors: Evan Hajani, Ataur Rahman, Khaled Haddad

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Climate change will affect the hydrological cycle in many different ways such as increase in evaporation and rainfalls. There have been growing interests among researchers to identify the nature of trends in historical rainfall data in many different parts of the world. This paper examines the trends in annual maximum rainfall data from 30 stations in New South Wales, Australia by using two non-parametric tests, Mann-Kendall (MK) and Spearman’s Rho (SR). Rainfall data were analyzed for fifteen different durations ranging from 6 min to 3 days. It is found that the sub-hourly durations (6, 12, 18, 24, 30, and 48 minutes) show statistically significant positive (upward) trends whereas longer duration (sub-daily and daily) events generally show a statistically significant negative (downward) trend. It is also found that the MK test and SR test provide notably different results for some rainfall event durations considered in this study. Since shorter duration sub-hourly rainfall events show positive trends at many stations, the design rainfall data based on stationary frequency analysis for these durations need to be adjusted to account for the impact of climate change. These shorter durations are more relevant to many urban development projects based on smaller catchments having a much shorter response time.

Keywords: climate change, Mann-Kendall test, Spearman’s Rho test, trends, design rainfall

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Authors: Chhordaneath Hen, Ty Sok, Ilan Ich, Ratboren Chan, Chantha Oeurng

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The damages caused by hydrological extremes such as flooding have been severe globally, and several research studies indicated extreme precipitations play a crucial role. Cambodia is one of the most vulnerable countries exposed to floods and drought as consequences of climate impact. Prek Thnot River Basin in the southwest part of Cambodia, which is in the plate and plateau region and a part of the Mekong Delta, was selected to investigate the changes in extreme precipitation and hydrological extreme. Furthermore, to develop a statistical relationship between these phenomena in this basin from 1995 to 2020 using Multiple Linear Regression. The precipitation and hydrological extreme were assessed via the attributes and trends of rainfall patterns during the study periods. The extreme flow was defined as a dependent variable, while the independent variables are various extreme precipitation indices. The study showed that all extreme precipitations indices (R10, R20, R35, CWD, R95p, R99p, and PRCPTOT) had increasing decency. However, the number of rain days per year had a decreasing tendency, which can conclude that extreme rainfall was more intense in a shorter period of the year. The study showed a similar relationship between extreme precipitation and hydrological extreme and land use change association with hydrological extreme. The direct combination of land use and precipitation equals 37% of the flood causes in this river. This study provided information on these two causes of flood events and an understanding of expectations of climate change consequences for flood and water resources management.

Keywords: extreme precipitation, hydrological extreme, land use, land cover, Prek Thnot river basin

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Authors: Abdullah Al Mamoon, Ataur Rahman

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Due to climate change, future rainfall will change at many locations on earth; however, the spatial and temporal patterns of this change are not easy to predict. One approach of predicting such future changes is to examine the trends in the historical rainfall data at a given region and use the identified trends to make future prediction. For this, a statistical trend test is commonly applied to the historical data. This paper examines the trends of daily extreme rainfall events from 30 rain gauges located in the State of Qatar. Rainfall data covering from 1962 to 2011 were used in the analysis. A combination of four non-parametric and parametric tests was applied to identify trends at 10%, 5%, and 1% significance levels. These tests are Mann-Kendall (MK), Spearman’s Rho (SR), Linear Regression (LR) and CUSUM tests. These tests showed both positive and negative trends throughout the country. Only eight stations showed positive (upward) trend, which were however not statistically significant. In contrast, significant negative (downward) trends were found at the 5% and 10% levels of significance in six stations. The MK, SR and LR tests exhibited very similar results. This finding has important implications in the derivation/upgrade of design rainfall for Qatar, which will affect design and operation of future urban drainage infrastructure in Qatar.

Keywords: trends, extreme rainfall, daily rainfall, Mann-Kendall test, climate change, Qatar

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Authors: Arti Devi, Parthasarthi Choudhury

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Extreme rainfall frequency analysis for Meteorological Sub-Division 4 of India was analysed using L-moments approach. Serial Correlation and Mann Kendall tests were conducted for checking serially independent and stationarity of the observations. The discordancy measure for the sites was conducted to detect the discordant sites. The regional homogeneity was tested by comparing with 500 generated homogeneous regions using a 4 parameter Kappa distribution. The best fit distribution was selected based on ZDIST statistics and L-moments ratio diagram from the five extreme value distributions GPD, GLO, GEV, P3 and LP3. The LN3 distribution was selected and regional rainfall frequency relationship was established using index-rainfall procedure. A regional mean rainfall relationship was developed using multiple linear regression with latitude and longitude of the sites as variables.

Keywords: L-moments, ZDIST statistics, serial correlation, Mann Kendall test

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Authors: Renato Morbidelli, Carla Saltalippi, Alessia Flammini, Tommaso Picciafuoco, Corrado Corradini

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A considerable part of rainfall data to be used in the hydrological practice is available in aggregated form within constant time intervals. This can produce undesirable effects, like the underestimate of the annual maximum rainfall depth, Hd, associated with a given duration, d, that is the basic quantity in the development of rainfall depth-duration-frequency relationships and in determining if climate change is producing effects on extreme event intensities and frequencies. The errors in the evaluation of Hd from data characterized by a coarse temporal aggregation, ta, and a procedure to reduce the non-homogeneity of the Hd series are here investigated. Our results indicate that: 1) in the worst conditions, for d=ta, the estimation of a single Hd value can be affected by an underestimation error up to 50%, while the average underestimation error for a series with at least 15-20 Hd values, is less than or equal to 16.7%; 2) the underestimation error values follow an exponential probability density function; 3) each very long time series of Hd contains many underestimated values; 4) relationships between the non-dimensional ratio ta/d and the average underestimate of Hd, derived from continuous rainfall data observed in many stations of Central Italy, may overcome this issue; 5) these equations should allow to improve the Hd estimates and the associated depth-duration-frequency curves at least in areas with similar climatic conditions.

Keywords: central Italy, extreme events, rainfall data, underestimation errors

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Authors: Nader Saadatkhah, Jafar Rahnamarad, Shattri Mansor, Zailani Khuzaimah, Arnis Asmat, Nor Aizam Adnan, Siti Noradzah Adam

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Kelantan river basin as a flood prone area at the east coast of the peninsular Malaysia has suffered several flood and mudflow events in the recent years. The current research attempted to assess the land cover changes impact in the Kelantan river basin focused on the runoff contributions from different land cover classes and the potential impact of land cover changes on runoff generation. In this regards, the hydrological regional modeling of rainfall induced runoff event as the improved transient rainfall infiltration and grid based regional model (Improved-TRIGRS) was employed to compute rate of infiltration, and subsequently changes in the discharge volume in this study. The effects of land use changes on peak flow and runoff volume was investigated using storm rainfall events during the last three decades.

Keywords: improved-TRIGRS model, land cover changes, Kelantan river basin, flood event

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Authors: Rabindra K. Panda, Gurjeet Singh

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The major objective of this study was to analyze the trend and variability of rainfall in the middle Mahandi river basin located in eastern India. The trend of variation of extreme rainfall events has predominant effect on agricultural water management and extreme hydrological events such as floods and droughts. Mahanadi river basin is one of the major river basins of India having an area of 1,41,589 km² and divided into three regions: Upper, middle and delta region. The middle region of Mahanadi river basin has an area of 48,700 km² and it is mostly dominated by agricultural land, where agriculture is mostly rainfed. The study region has five Agro-climatic zones namely: East and South Eastern Coastal Plain, North Eastern Ghat, Western Undulating Zone, Western Central Table Land and Mid Central Table Land, which were numbered as zones 1 to 5 respectively for convenience in reporting. In the present study, analysis of variability and trends of annual, seasonal, and monthly rainfall was carried out, using the daily rainfall data collected from the Indian Meteorological Department (IMD) for 35 years (1979-2013) for the 5 agro-climatic zones. The long term variability of rainfall was investigated by evaluating the mean, standard deviation and coefficient of variation. The long term trend of rainfall was analyzed using the Mann-Kendall test on monthly, seasonal and annual time scales. It was found that there is a decreasing trend in the rainfall during the winter and pre monsoon seasons for zones 2, 3 and 4; whereas in the monsoon (rainy) season there is an increasing trend for zones 1, 4 and 5 with a level of significance ranging between 90-95%. On the other hand, the mean annual rainfall has an increasing trend at 99% significance level. The estimated seasonality index showed that the rainfall distribution is asymmetric and distributed over 3-4 months period. The study will help to understand the spatio-temporal variation of rainfall and to determine the correlation between the current rainfall trend and climate change scenario of the study region for multifarious use.

Keywords: Eastern India, long-term variability and trends, Mann-Kendall test, seasonality index, spatio-temporal variation

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Authors: N. V. Nikhil, S. R. Lee, Do Won Park

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Korean peninsula receives about two third of the annual rainfall during summer season. The extreme rainfall pattern due to typhoon and heavy rainfall results in severe mountain disasters among which 55% of them are debris flows, a major natural hazard especially when occurring around major settlement areas. The basic mechanism underlined for this kind of failure is the unsaturated shallow slope failure by reduction of matric suction due to infiltration of water and liquefaction of the failed mass due to generation of positive pore water pressure leading to abrupt loss of strength and commencement of flow. However only an empirical model cannot simulate this complex mechanism. Hence, we have employed an empirical-physical based approach for hazard analysis of debris flow using TRIGRS, a debris flow initiation criteria and DAN3D in mountain Woonmyun, South Korea. Debris flow initiation criteria is required to discern the potential landslides which can transform into debris flow. DAN-3D, being a new model, does not have the calibrated values of rheology parameters for Korean conditions. Thus, in our analysis we have used the recent 2011 debris flow event in mountain Woonmyun san for calibration of both TRIGRS model and DAN-3D, thereafter identifying and predicting the debris flow initiation points, path, run out velocity, and area of spreading for future extreme rainfall based scenarios.

Keywords: debris flow, DAN-3D, extreme rainfall, hazard analysis

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Authors: Youness Laaroussi, Zine Elabidine Guennoun, Amine Amar

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Modeling and forecasting dynamics of rainfall occurrences constitute one of the major topics, which have been largely treated by statisticians, hydrologists, climatologists and many other groups of scientists. In the same issue, we propose in the present paper a new hybrid method, which combines Extreme Values and fractal theories. We illustrate the use of our methodology for transformed Emberger Index series, constructed basing on data recorded in Oujda (Morocco). The index is treated at first by Peaks Over Threshold (POT) approach, to identify excess observations over an optimal threshold u. In the second step, we consider the resulting excess as a fractal object included in one dimensional space of time. We identify fractal dimension by the box counting. We discuss the prospect descriptions of rainfall data sets under Generalized Pareto Distribution, assured by Extreme Values Theory (EVT). We show that, despite of the appropriateness of return periods given by POT approach, the introduction of fractal dimension provides accurate interpretation results, which can ameliorate apprehension of rainfall occurrences.

Keywords: extreme values theory, fractals dimensions, peaks Over threshold, rainfall occurrences

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Authors: Ali Razmi, Saeed Golian

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Climate change is known to have the potential to impact adversely hydrologic patterns for variables such as rainfall, maximum and minimum temperature and sea level rise. Long-term average of these climate variables could possibly change over time due to climate change impacts. In this study, trend analysis was performed on rainfall, maximum and minimum temperature and water level data of a coastal area in Manhattan, New York City, Central Park and Battery Park stations to investigate if there is a significant change in the data mean. Partial Man-Kendall test was used for trend analysis. Frequency analysis was then performed on data using common probability distribution functions such as Generalized Extreme Value (GEV), normal, log-normal and log-Pearson. Goodness of fit tests such as Kolmogorov-Smirnov are used to determine the most appropriate distributions. In flood frequency analysis, rainfall and water level data are often separately investigated. However, in determining flood zones, simultaneous consideration of rainfall and water level in frequency analysis could have considerable effect on floodplain delineation (flood extent and depth). The present study aims to perform flood frequency analysis considering joint probability distribution for rainfall and storm surge. First, correlation between the considered variables was investigated. Joint probability distribution of extreme water level and temperature was also investigated to examine how global warming could affect sea level flooding impacts. Copula functions were fitted to data and joint probability of water level with rainfall and temperature for different recurrence intervals of 2, 5, 25, 50, 100, 200, 500, 600 and 1000 was determined and compared with the severity of individual events. Results for trend analysis showed increase in long-term average of data that could be attributed to climate change impacts. GEV distribution was found as the most appropriate function to be fitted to the extreme climate variables. The results for joint probability distribution analysis confirmed the necessity for incorporation of both rainfall and water level data in flood frequency analysis.

Keywords: climate change, climate variables, copula, joint probability

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Authors: Hany Mustafa, Mahmoud Roushdi, Khaled Kheireldin

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Rainfall variability is an important feature of semi-arid climates. Climate change is very likely to increase the frequency, magnitude, and variability of extreme weather events such as droughts, floods, and storms. The Blue Nile Basin is facing extreme climate change-related events such as floods and droughts and its possible impacts on ecosystem, livelihood, agriculture, livestock, and biodiversity are expected. Rainfall variability is a threat to food production in the Blue Nile Basin countries. This study investigates the long-term variations and trends of seasonal and annual precipitation over the Blue Nile Basin for 102-year period (1901-2002). Six statistical trend analysis of precipitation was performed with nonparametric Mann-Kendall test and Sen's slope estimator. On the other hands, four statistical absolute homogeneity tests: Standard Normal Homogeneity Test, Buishand Range test, Pettitt test and the Von Neumann ratio test were applied to test the homogeneity of the rainfall data, using XLSTAT software, which results of p-valueless than alpha=0.05, were significant. The percentages of significant trends obtained for each parameter in the different seasons are presented. The study recommends adaptation strategies to be streamlined to relevant policies, enhancing local farmers’ adaptive capacity for facing future climate change effects.

Keywords: Blue Nile basin, climate change, Mann-Kendall test, trend analysis

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Authors: Elham Sharifineyestani, Mohammad Farshchin

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Tropical cyclones are one of the most expensive and deadliest natural disasters. They cause heavy rainfall and serious flash flooding that result in billions of dollars of damage and considerable mortality each year in the United States. Prediction of the frequency of tropical cyclone-induced rainfall events can be helpful in emergency planning and flood risk management. In this study, we have developed a machine-learning model to predict the exceedance frequencies of tropical cyclone-induced rainfall events in the United States. Model results show a satisfactory agreement with available observations. To examine the effectiveness of our approach, we also have compared the result of our predictions with the exceedance frequencies predicted using a physics-based rainfall model by Feldmann.

Keywords: flash flooding, tropical cyclones, frequencies, machine learning, risk management

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Authors: Yu-Da Chen, Chia-Chun Wu

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The relationship between antecedent soil moisture content and soil erosion is a complicated phenomenon. Some studies confirm the effect of antecedent soil moisture content on soil erosion, but some deny it. Therefore, the objective of this study is to clarify such contradictions through field experiments. This study conducted two-year field observations of soil losses from natural rainfall events on runoff plots with a length of 10 meters, width of 3 meters, and uniform slope of 9%. Volumetric soil moisture sensors were used to log the soil moisture changes for each rainfall event. A total of 49 effective events were monitored. Results of this study show that antecedent soil moisture content promotes the generation of surface runoff, especially for rainfall events with short duration or lower magnitudes. A positive correlation was found between antecedent soil moisture content and soil loss per unit Rainfall-Runoff Erosivity Index, which indicated that soil with high moisture content is more susceptible to detachment. Once the rainfall duration exceeds 10 hours, the impact from the rainfall duration to soil erosion overwrites, and the effect of antecedent soil moisture is almost negligible.

Keywords: antecedent soil moisture content, soil loss, runoff coefficient, rainfall-runoff erosivity

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Authors: Edilene Mercedes Mauer Machado, Carolina Hadassa Marques Karoly, Amanda Britz, Claudineia Brazil

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The El Niño phenomenon, characterized by the anomalous warming of surface waters in the Equatorial Pacific Ocean, can influence weather patterns in various parts of the world, including the occurrence of extreme events such as droughts or heavy rainfall. Studies have suggested a relationship between El Niño and an increase in the incidence of dengue in certain areas. During El Niño periods, there can be changes in climatic conditions, such as increased temperatures and reduced rainfall in certain tropical and subtropical regions. These conditions can favor the reproduction of the Aedes aegypti mosquito, the vector for dengue transmission. Research aims to investigate how climate events like El Niño and La Niña can influence the incidence and transmission of dengue. The results have shown that, on average, there was a significant increase in dengue cases during La Niña years compared to years of climatic neutrality, contradicting the findings of Hopp et al. (2015). The study also highlighted that regions affected by El Niño exhibited greater variability in dengue incidence. However, it is important to emphasize that the effects of El Niño on dengue transmission can vary depending on the region and local factors, such as socioeconomic context and implemented control measures, as described by Johansson et al. (2009). Not all areas affected by El Niño will necessarily experience an increase in dengue incidence, and the interaction between climate and disease transmission is complex.

Keywords: anomalous warming, climatic patterns, dengue incidence, extreme events

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Authors: Oyenike Eludoyin

Abstract:

Extreme climate conditions are deviation from the norms and are capable of causing upsets in many important environmental parameter including disruption of water balance and air temperature balance. Studies have shown that extreme climate conditions can foretell disaster in regions with inadequate early warning systems. In this paper, we combined geographical information systems, statistics and social surveys to evaluate the physiologic indices [(Dewpoint Temperature (Td), Effective Temperature Index (ETI) and Relative Strain Index (RSI)] and extreme climate conditions in different parts of southwest Nigeria. This was with the view to assessing the nature and the impact of the conditions on the people and their coping strategies. The results indicate that minimum, mean and maximum temperatures were higher in 1960-1990 than 1991-2013 periods at most areas, and more than 80% of the people adapt to thermal stress by changing wear type or cloth, installing air conditioner and fan at home and/or work place and sleeping outside at certain period of the night and day. With respect to livelihoods, about 52% of the interviewed farmers indicated that too early rainfall, late rainfall, prolonged dryness after an initial rainfall, excessive rainfall and windstorms caused low crop yields. Main (76%) coping strategies were changing of planting dates, diversification of crops, and practices of mulching and intercropping. Government or institutional support was less than 20%.

Keywords: coping strategies, extreme climate, livelihoods, physiologic comfort

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Authors: Sara Patricia Ibarra-Zavaleta, Rabindranarth Romero-Lopez, Rosario Langrave, Annie Poulin, Gerald Corzo, Mathias Glaus, Ricardo Vega-Azamar, Norma Angelica Oropeza

Abstract:

The progressive change in climatic conditions worldwide has increased frequency and severity of extreme hydrometeorological events (EHE). Mexico is an example; this has been affected by the presence of EHE leaving economic, social and environmental losses. The objective of this research was to apply a Canadian distributed hydrological model (DHM) to tropical conditions and to evaluate its capacity to predict flows in a basin in the central Gulf of Mexico. In addition, the DHM (once calibrated and validated) was used to calculate the theoretical hydraulic power and the performance to predict streamflow before the presence of an EHE. The results of the DHM show that the goodness of fit indicators between the observed and simulated flows in the calibration process (NSE=0.83, RSR=0.021 and BIAS=-4.3) and validation: temporal was assessed at two points: point one (NSE=0.78, RSR=0.113 and BIAS=0.054) and point two (NSE=0.825, RSR=0.103 and BIAS=0.063) are satisfactory. The DHM showed its applicability in tropical environments and its ability to characterize the rainfall-runoff relationship in the study area. This work can serve as a tool for identifying vulnerabilities before floods and for the rational and sustainable management of water resources.

Keywords: HYDROTEL, hydraulic power, extreme hydrometeorological events, streamflow

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Authors: Borzou Faramarzi, Farideh Azimi, Azam Gohardoust, Abbas Ghasemi Ghasemvand, Maryam Mirzaei, Mandana Amani

Abstract:

In this study, attempts were made to examine and analyze the trend for rainfall changes in Kangan City, Booshehr Province, during the time span 1964 to 2003, using seven rainfall threshold indices based on 50 climate extremes indices approved by WMO–CCL/CLIVAR. These indices include days with heavy precipitations, days with rainfalls, frequency of rainfall threshold values, intensity of rainfall threshold values, percentage of rainfall threshold values, successive days of rainfall, and successive days with no precipitation. Results are indicative of the fact that Kangan City climatic conditions have become more dried than before. Indices days with heavy precipitations and days with rainfalls do not show a certain trend in Kangan City. Frequency, intensity, and percentage of rainfall threshold values in the station under investigation do not indicate a certain trend. In analysis of time series of rainfall extreme indices, generally, it was revealed that Kangan City is influenced by general factors of global warming. Calculation of values for the next 10 years based on ARIMA models demonstrates a continuation of warming trends in Kangan City. On the whole, rainfall conditions in Kangan City have experienced more dry periods compared to the past, the trend which is also observable for next 10 years.

Keywords: climatic indices, climate change, extreme temperature and precipitation, time series

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Authors: Pinel Sebastien, Bourrin François, De Madron Du Rieu Xavier, Ludwig Wolfgang, Arnau Pedro

Abstract:

Heavy precipitation constitutes a major meteorological threat in the western Mediterranean. Research has investigated the relationship between the states of the Mediterranean Sea and the atmosphere with the precipitation for short temporal windows. However, at a larger temporal scale, the precursor signals of heavy rainfall in the sea and atmosphere have drawn little attention. Moreover, despite ongoing improvements in numerical weather prediction, the medium-term forecasting of rainfall events remains a difficult task. Here, we aim to investigate the influence of early-spring environmental parameters on the following autumnal heavy precipitations. Hence, we develop a machine learning model to predict extreme autumnal rainfall with a 6-month lead time over the Spanish Catalan coastal area, based on i) the sea pattern (main current-LPC and Sea Surface Temperature-SST) at the mesoscale scale, ii) 4 European weather teleconnection patterns (NAO, WeMo, SCAND, MO) at synoptic scale, and iii) the hydrological regime of the main local river (Rhône River). The accuracy of the developed model classifier is evaluated via statistical analysis based on classification accuracy, logarithmic and confusion matrix by comparing with rainfall estimates from rain gauges and satellite observations (CHIRPS-2.0). Sensitivity tests are carried out by changing the model configuration, such as sea SST, sea LPC, river regime, and synoptic atmosphere configuration. The sensitivity analysis suggests a negligible influence from the hydrological regime, unlike SST, LPC, and specific teleconnection weather patterns. At last, this study illustrates how public datasets can be integrated into a machine learning model for heavy rainfall prediction and can interest local policies for management purposes.

Keywords: extreme hazards, sensitivity analysis, heavy rainfall, machine learning, sea-atmosphere modeling, precipitation forecasting

Procedia PDF Downloads 135

Authors: Majid Mathlouthi, Fethi Lebdi

Abstract:

Throughout the world, the extent and magnitude of droughts have economic, social and environmental consequences. Today climate change has become more and more felt; most likely they increase the frequency and duration of droughts. An analysis by event of dry event, from series of observations of the daily rainfall is carried out. A daily precipitation threshold value has been set. A catchment localized in Northern Tunisia where the average rainfall is about 600 mm has been studied. Rainfall events are defined as an uninterrupted series of rainfall days understanding at least a day having received a precipitation superior or equal to a fixed threshold. The dry events are constituted of a series of dry days framed by two successive rainfall events. A rainfall event is a vector of coordinates the duration, the rainfall depth per event and the duration of the dry event. The depth and duration are found to be correlated. So we use conditional probabilities to analyse the depth per event. The negative binomial distribution fits well the dry event. The duration of the rainfall event follows a geometric distribution. The length of the climatically cycle adjusts to the Incomplete Gamma. Results of this analysis was used to study of the effects of climate change on water resources and crops and to calibrate precipitation models with little rainfall records. In response to long droughts in the basin, the drought management system is based on three phases during each of the three phases; different measurements are applied and executed. The first is before drought, preparedness and early warning; the second is drought management, mitigation in the event of drought; and the last subsequent drought, when the drought is over.

Keywords: dry spell, precipitation threshold, climate vulnerability, adaptation measures

Procedia PDF Downloads 84

Authors: Ali M. Subyani

Abstract:

The increase in the greenhouse gas emission has had a severe impact on global climate change and is bound to affect the weather patterns worldwide. This climate change impacts are among the future significant effects on any society. Rainfall levels are drastically increasing with flash floods in some places and long periods of droughts in others, especially in arid regions. These extreme events are causes of interactions concerning environmental, socio-economic and cultural life and their implementation. This paper presents the detailed features of dry and wet spell durations and rainfall intensity series available (1971-2012) on daily basis for the Jeddah area, Western, Saudi Arabia. It also presents significant articles for combating the climate change impacts on this area. Results show trend changes in dry and wet spell durations and rainfall amount on daily, monthly and annual time series. Three rain seasons were proposed in this investigation: high rain, low rain, and dry seasons. It shows that the overall average dry spell durations is about 80 continuous days while the average wet spell durations is 1.39 days with an average rainfall intensity of 8.2 mm/day. Annual and seasonal autorun analyses confirm that the rainy seasons are tending to have more intense rainfall while the seasons are becoming drier. This study would help decision makers in future for water resources management and flood risk analysis.

Keywords: climate change, daily rainfall, dry and wet spill, Jeddah, Saudi Arabia

Procedia PDF Downloads 338