Search results for: prediction interval

Authors: Wardah, T., Kamil, A.A., Sahol Hamid, A.B., Maisarah, W.W.I

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Quantitative precipitation forecast (QPF) from atmospheric model as input to hydrological model in an integrated hydro-meteorological flood forecasting system has been operational in many countries worldwide. High-resolution numerical weather prediction (NWP) models with grid cell sizes between 2 and 14 km have great potential in contributing towards reasonably accurate QPF. In this study the potential of two NWP models to forecast precipitation for a flood-prone area in a tropical region is examined. The precipitation forecasts produced from the Fifth Generation Penn State/NCAR Mesoscale (MM5) and Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) models are statistically verified with the observed rain in Kelantan River Basin, Malaysia. The statistical verification indicates that the models have performed quite satisfactorily for low and moderate rainfall but not very satisfactory for heavy rainfall.

Keywords: MM5, Numerical weather prediction (NWP), quantitative precipitation forecast (QPF), WRF

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Authors: Fl. Loury, P. Sablonière

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In this paper a stochastic scenario-based model predictive control applied to molten salt storage systems in concentrated solar tower power plant is presented. The main goal of this study is to build up a tool to analyze current and expected future resources for evaluating the weekly power to be advertised on electricity secondary market. This tool will allow plant operator to maximize profits while hedging the impact on the system of stochastic variables such as resources or sunlight shortage.

Solving the problem first requires a mixed logic dynamic modeling of the plant. The two stochastic variables, respectively the sunlight incoming energy and electricity demands from secondary market, are modeled by least square regression. Robustness is achieved by drawing a certain number of random variables realizations and applying the most restrictive one to the system. This scenario approach control technique provides the plant operator a confidence interval containing a given percentage of possible stochastic variable realizations in such a way that robust control is always achieved within its bounds. The results obtained from many trajectory simulations show the existence of a ‘’reliable’’ interval, which experimentally confirms the algorithm robustness.

Keywords: Molten Salt Storage System, Concentrated Solar Tower Power Plant, Robust Stochastic Model Predictive Control.

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Authors: Masaki Ohno, Cervinia Manalo, Tetsuji Okuda, Satoshi Nakai, Wataru Nishijima

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Reverse osmosis (RO) membranes have been widely used for desalination to purify water for drinking and other purposes. Although at present most RO membranes have no resistance to chlorine, chlorine-resistant membranes are being developed. Therefore, direct chlorine treatment or chlorine washing will be an option in preventing biofouling on chlorine-resistant membranes. Furthermore, if particle accumulation control is possible by using chlorine washing, expensive pretreatment for particle removal can be removed or simplified. The objective of this study was to determine the effective hypochlorite washing condition required for controlling biofilm formation and inorganic particle accumulation on RO membrane in a continuous flow channel with RO membrane and spacer. In this study, direct chlorine washing was done by soaking fouled RO membranes in hypochlorite solution and fluorescence intensity was used to quantify biofilm on the membrane surface. After 48 h of soaking the membranes in high fouling potential waters, the fluorescence intensity decreased to 0 from 470 using the following washing conditions: 10 mg/L chlorine concentration, 2 times/d washing interval, and 30 min washing time. The chlorine concentration required to control biofilm formation decreased as the chlorine concentration (0.5–10 mg/L), the washing interval (1–4 times/d), or the washing time (1–30 min) increased. For the sample solutions used in the study, 10 mg/L chlorine concentration with 2 times/d interval, and 5 min washing time was required for biofilm control. The optimum chlorine washing conditions obtained from soaking experiments proved to be applicable also in controlling biofilm formation in continuous flow experiments. Moreover, chlorine washing employed in controlling biofilm with suspended particles resulted in lower amounts of organic (0.03 mg/cm²) and inorganic (0.14 mg/cm²) deposits on the membrane than that for sample water without chlorine washing (0.14 mg/cm² and 0.33 mg/cm², respectively). The amount of biofilm formed was 79% controlled by continuous washing with 10 mg/L of free chlorine concentration, and the inorganic accumulation amount decreased by 58% to levels similar to that of pure water with kaolin (0.17 mg/cm²) as feed water. These results confirmed the acceleration of particle accumulation due to biofilm formation, and that the inhibition of biofilm growth can almost completely reduce further particle accumulation. In addition, effective hypochlorite washing condition which can control both biofilm formation and particle accumulation could be achieved.

Keywords: Biofouling control, hypochlorite, reverse osmosis, washing condition optimization.

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Authors: Victor Bodell, Lukas Ekstrom, Somayeh Aghanavesi

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Fuel consumption (FC) is one of the key factors in determining expenses of operating a heavy-duty vehicle. A customer may therefore request an estimate of the FC of a desired vehicle. The modular design of heavy-duty vehicles allows their construction by specifying the building blocks, such as gear box, engine and chassis type. If the combination of building blocks is unprecedented, it is unfeasible to measure the FC, since this would first r equire the construction of the vehicle. This paper proposes a machine learning approach to predict FC. This study uses around 40,000 vehicles specific and o perational e nvironmental c onditions i nformation, such as road slopes and driver profiles. A ll v ehicles h ave d iesel engines and a mileage of more than 20,000 km. The data is used to investigate the accuracy of machine learning algorithms Linear regression (LR), K-nearest neighbor (KNN) and Artificial n eural n etworks (ANN) in predicting fuel consumption for heavy-duty vehicles. Performance of the algorithms is evaluated by reporting the prediction error on both simulated data and operational measurements. The performance of the algorithms is compared using nested cross-validation and statistical hypothesis testing. The statistical evaluation procedure finds that ANNs have the lowest prediction error compared to LR and KNN in estimating fuel consumption on both simulated and operational data. The models have a mean relative prediction error of 0.3% on simulated data, and 4.2% on operational data.

Keywords: Artificial neural networks, fuel consumption, machine learning, regression, statistical tests.

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Authors: S. M. Ali, N. R. Dhar

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Tool wear and surface roughness prediction plays a significant role in machining industry for proper planning and control of machining parameters and optimization of cutting conditions. This paper deals with developing an artificial neural network (ANN) model as a function of cutting parameters in turning steel under minimum quantity lubrication (MQL). A feed-forward backpropagation network with twenty five hidden neurons has been selected as the optimum network. The co-efficient of determination (R2) between model predictions and experimental values are 0.9915, 0.9906, 0.9761 and 0.9627 in terms of VB, VM, VS and Ra respectively. The results imply that the model can be used easily to forecast tool wear and surface roughness in response to cutting parameters.

Keywords: ANN, MQL, Surface Roughness, Tool Wear.

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Authors: I. Kurashvili, G. Darsavelidze, T. Kimeridze, G. Chubinidze, I. Tabatadze

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At present, a number of modern semiconductor devices based on SiGe alloys have been created in which the latest achievements of high technologies are used. These devices might cause significant changes to networking, computing, and space technology. In the nearest future new materials based on SiGe will be able to restrict the A³B⁵ and Si technologies and firmly establish themselves in medium frequency electronics. Effective realization of these prospects requires the solution of prediction and controlling of structural state and dynamical physical –mechanical properties of new SiGe materials. Based on these circumstances, a complex investigation of structural defects and structural-sensitive dynamic mechanical characteristics of SiGe alloys under different external impacts (deformation, radiation, thermal cycling) acquires great importance. Internal friction (IF) and shear modulus temperature and amplitude dependences of the monocrystalline boron-doped Si_1-xGe_x(x≤0.05) alloys grown by Czochralski technique is studied in initial and ⁶⁰Co gamma-irradiated states. In the initial samples, a set of dislocation origin relaxation processes and accompanying modulus defects are revealed in a temperature interval of 400-800 ⁰C. It is shown that after gamma-irradiation intensity of relaxation internal friction in the vicinity of 280 ⁰C increases and simultaneously activation parameters of high temperature relaxation processes reveal clear rising. It is proposed that these changes of dynamical mechanical characteristics might be caused by a decrease of the dislocation mobility in the Cottrell atmosphere enriched by the radiation defects.

Keywords: Gamma-irradiation, internal friction, shear modulus, SiGe alloys.

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Authors: Mohammadamin Zanganeh, Vahid Khalajzadeh

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The problems associated with wind predictions of WAsP model in complex terrain are already the target of several studies in the last decade. In this paper, the influence of surrounding orography on accuracy of wind data analysis of a train is investigated. For the case study, a site with complex surrounding orography is considered. This site is located in Manjil, one of the windiest cities of Iran. For having precise evaluation of wind regime in the site, one-year wind data measurements from two metrological masts are used. To validate the obtained results from WAsP, the cross prediction between each mast is performed. The analysis reveals that WAsP model can estimate the wind speed behavior accurately. In addition, results show that this software can be used for predicting the wind regime in flat sites with complex surrounding orography.

Keywords: Complex terrain, Meteorological mast, WAsPmodel, Wind prediction

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Authors: Kaltima Phichai, Pornchanoke Pragrobpondee, Thaweesak Khumpart, Samorn Hirunpraditkoon

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The paper provides biomasses characteristics by proximate analysis (volatile matter, fixed carbon and ash) and ultimate analysis (carbon, hydrogen, nitrogen and oxygen) for the prediction of the heating value equations. The heating value estimation of various biomasses can be used as an energy evaluation. Thirteen types of biomass were studied. Proximate analysis was investigated by mass loss method and infrared moisture analyzer. Ultimate analysis was analyzed by CHNO analyzer. The heating values varied from 15 to 22.4MJ kg-1. Correlations of the calculated heating value with proximate and ultimate analyses were undertaken using multiple regression analysis and summarized into three and two equations, respectively. Correlations based on proximate analysis illustrated that deviation of calculated heating values from experimental heating values was higher than the correlations based on ultimate analysis.

Keywords: Heating value equation, Proximate analysis, Ultimate analysis.

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Authors: Abdullahi Jibrin, Aishetu Abdulkadir

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The development of allometric models is crucial to accurate forest biomass/carbon stock assessment. The aim of this study was to develop a set of biomass prediction models that will enable the determination of total tree aboveground biomass for savannah woodland area in Niger State, Nigeria. Based on the data collected through biometric measurements of 1816 trees and destructive sampling of 36 trees, five species specific and one site specific models were developed. The sample size was distributed equally between the five most dominant species in the study site (Vitellaria paradoxa, Irvingia gabonensis, Parkia biglobosa, Anogeissus leiocarpus, Pterocarpus erinaceous). Firstly, the equations were developed for five individual species. Secondly these five species were mixed and were used to develop an allometric equation of mixed species. Overall, there was a strong positive relationship between total tree biomass and the stem diameter. The coefficient of determination (R2 values) ranging from 0.93 to 0.99 P < 0.001 were realised for the models; with considerable low standard error of the estimates (SEE) which confirms that the total tree above ground biomass has a significant relationship with the dbh. F-test values for the biomass prediction models were also significant at p < 0.001 which indicates that the biomass prediction models are valid. This study recommends that for improved biomass estimates in the study site, the site specific biomass models should preferably be used instead of using generic models.

Keywords: Allometriy, biomass, carbon stock, model, regression equation, woodland, inventory.

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Authors: Ioannis P. Panapakidis, Marios N. Moschakis

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The Greek Energy Market is structured as a mandatory pool where the producers make their bid offers in day-ahead basis. The System Operator solves an optimization routine aiming at the minimization of the cost of produced electricity. The solution of the optimization problem leads to the calculation of the System Marginal Price (SMP). Accurate forecasts of the SMP can lead to increased profits and more efficient portfolio management from the producer`s perspective. Aim of this study is to provide a comparative analysis of various machine learning models such as artificial neural networks and neuro-fuzzy models for the prediction of the SMP of the Greek market. Machine learning algorithms are favored in predictions problems since they can capture and simulate the volatilities of complex time series.

Keywords: Deregulated energy market, forecasting, machine learning, system marginal price, energy efficiency and quality.

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Authors: M. Ben Slimene, M.-S. Ouali

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Asset management of urban infrastructures faces a multitude of challenges that need to be overcome to obtain a reliable measurement of performances. Predicting the performance of slowly aging systems is one of those challenges, which helps the asset manager to investigate specific failure modes and to undertake the appropriate maintenance and rehabilitation interventions to avoid catastrophic failures as well as to optimize the maintenance costs. This article presents a methodology for modeling the deterioration of slowly degrading assets based on an operating history. It consists of extracting degradation profiles by grouping together assets that exhibit similar degradation sequences using an unsupervised classification technique derived from artificial intelligence. The obtained clusters are used to build the performance prediction models. This methodology is applied to a sample of a stormwater drainage culvert dataset.

Keywords: Artificial intelligence, clustering, culvert, regression model, slow degradation.

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Authors: Essam Al-Daoud

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A New features are extracted and compared to improve the prediction of protein-protein interactions. The basic idea is to select and use the best set of features from the Tensor matrices that are produced by the frequency vectors of the protein sequences. Three set of features are compared, the first set is based on the indices that are the most common in the interacting proteins, the second set is based on the indices that tend to be common in the interacting and non-interacting proteins, and the third set is constructed by using random indices. Moreover, three encoding strategies are compared; that are based on the amino asides polarity, structure, and chemical properties. The experimental results indicate that the highest accuracy can be obtained by using random indices with chemical properties encoding strategy and support vector machine.

Keywords: protein-protein interactions, random indices, encoding strategies, support vector machine.

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Authors: Caroline E. Mendes, Alberto C. Badino

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Pneumatic reactors have been widely employed in various sectors of the chemical industry, especially where are required high heat and mass transfer rates. This study aimed to obtain correlations that allow the prediction of gas hold-up (Ԑ) and volumetric oxygen transfer coefficient (k_La), and compare these values, for three models of pneumatic reactors on two scales utilizing Newtonian fluids. Values of k_La ​​were obtained using the dynamic pressure-step method, while e was used for a new proposed measure. Comparing the three models of reactors studied, it was observed that the mass transfer was superior to draft-tube airlift, reaching e of 0.173 and k_La of 0.00904s^-1. All correlations showed good fit to the experimental data (R²≥94%), and comparisons with correlations from the literature demonstrate the need for further similar studies due to shortage of data available, mainly for airlift reactors and high viscosity fluids.

Keywords: Bubble column, internal loop airlift, gas hold-up, kLa.

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Authors: Yi Yu, Lin Ma, Yong Sun, Yuantong Gu

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This paper presents a novel method for remaining useful life prediction using the Elliptical Basis Function (EBF) network and a Markov chain. The EBF structure is trained by a modified Expectation-Maximization (EM) algorithm in order to take into account the missing covariate set. No explicit extrapolation is needed for internal covariates while a Markov chain is constructed to represent the evolution of external covariates in the study. The estimated external and the unknown internal covariates constitute an incomplete covariate set which are then used and analyzed by the EBF network to provide survival information of the asset. It is shown in the case study that the method slightly underestimates the remaining useful life of an asset which is a desirable result for early maintenance decision and resource planning.

Keywords: Elliptical Basis Function Network, Markov Chain, Missing Covariates, Remaining Useful Life

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Authors: Parvinder S. Sandhu, Jagdeep Singh, Vikas Gupta, Mandeep Kaur, Sonia Manhas, Ramandeep Sidhu

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Prediction of fault-prone modules provides one way to support software quality engineering. Clustering is used to determine the intrinsic grouping in a set of unlabeled data. Among various clustering techniques available in literature K-Means clustering approach is most widely being used. This paper introduces K-Means based Clustering approach for software finding the fault proneness of the Object-Oriented systems. The contribution of this paper is that it has used Metric values of JEdit open source software for generation of the rules for the categorization of software modules in the categories of Faulty and non faulty modules and thereafter empirically validation is performed. The results are measured in terms of accuracy of prediction, probability of Detection and Probability of False Alarms.

Keywords: K-Means, Software Fault, Classification, ObjectOriented Metrics.

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Authors: Karima Siham Aoubid, Mohamed Boulemden

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The development of the signal compression algorithms is having compressive progress. These algorithms are continuously improved by new tools and aim to reduce, an average, the number of bits necessary to the signal representation by means of minimizing the reconstruction error. The following article proposes the compression of Arabic speech signal by a hybrid method combining the wavelet transform and the linear prediction. The adopted approach rests, on one hand, on the original signal decomposition by ways of analysis filters, which is followed by the compression stage, and on the other hand, on the application of the order 5, as well as, the compression signal coefficients. The aim of this approach is the estimation of the predicted error, which will be coded and transmitted. The decoding operation is then used to reconstitute the original signal. Thus, the adequate choice of the bench of filters is useful to the transform in necessary to increase the compression rate and induce an impercevable distortion from an auditive point of view.

Keywords: Compression, linear prediction analysis, multiresolution analysis, speech signal.

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Authors: M. Breška, I. Peruš, V. Stankovski

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The number of Ground Motion Prediction Equations (GMPEs) used for predicting peak ground acceleration (PGA) and the number of earthquake recordings that have been used for fitting these equations has increased in the past decades. The current PF-L database contains 3550 recordings. Since the GMPEs frequently model the peak ground acceleration the goal of the present study was to refit a selection of 44 of the existing equation models for PGA in light of the latest data. The algorithm Levenberg-Marquardt was used for fitting the coefficients of the equations and the results are evaluated both quantitatively by presenting the root mean squared error (RMSE) and qualitatively by drawing graphs of the five best fitted equations. The RMSE was found to be as low as 0.08 for the best equation models. The newly estimated coefficients vary from the values published in the original works.

Keywords: Ground Motion Prediction Equations, Levenberg-Marquardt algorithm, refitting PF-L database.

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Authors: Tebogo Emma Makaba, Barnabas Ndlovu Gatsheni

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The cities of Johannesburg and Pretoria both located in the Gauteng province are separated by a distance of 58 km. The traffic queues on the Ben Schoeman freeway which connects these two cities can stretch for almost 1.5 km. Vehicle traffic congestion impacts negatively on the business and the commuter’s quality of life. The goal of this paper is to identify variables that influence the flow of traffic and to design a vehicle traffic prediction model, which will predict the traffic flow pattern in advance. The model will unable motorist to be able to make appropriate travel decisions ahead of time. The data used was collected by Mikro’s Traffic Monitoring (MTM). Multi-Layer perceptron (MLP) was used individually to construct the model and the MLP was also combined with Bagging ensemble method to training the data. The cross—validation method was used for evaluating the models. The results obtained from the techniques were compared using predictive and prediction costs. The cost was computed using combination of the loss matrix and the confusion matrix. The predicted models designed shows that the status of the traffic flow on the freeway can be predicted using the following parameters travel time, average speed, traffic volume and day of month. The implications of this work is that commuters will be able to spend less time travelling on the route and spend time with their families. The logistics industry will save more than twice what they are currently spending.

Keywords: Bagging ensemble methods, confusion matrix, multi-layer perceptron, vehicle traffic flow.

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Authors: Srinath Shetty K., Shivashankar R., Rashmi P. Shetty

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Earth reinforcing techniques have become useful and economical to solve problems related to difficult grounds and provide satisfactory foundation performance. In this context, this paper uses radial basis function neural network (RBFNN) for predicting the bearing pressure of strip footing on reinforced granular bed overlying weak soil. The inputs for the neural network models included plate width, thickness of granular bed and number of layers of reinforcements, settlement ratio, water content, dry density, cohesion and angle of friction. The results indicated that RBFNN model exhibited more than 84 % prediction accuracy, thereby demonstrating its application in a geotechnical problem.

Keywords: Bearing pressure, granular bed, radial basis function neural network, strip footing.

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Authors: J-P. Skön, M. Johansson, M. Raatikainen, K. Leiviskä, M. Kolehmainen

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The use of neural networks is popular in various building applications such as prediction of heating load, ventilation rate and indoor temperature. Significant is, that only few papers deal with indoor carbon dioxide (CO2) prediction which is a very good indicator of indoor air quality (IAQ). In this study, a data-driven modelling method based on multilayer perceptron network for indoor air carbon dioxide in an apartment building is developed. Temperature and humidity measurements are used as input variables to the network. Motivation for this study derives from the following issues. First, measuring carbon dioxide is expensive and sensors power consumptions is high and secondly, this leads to short operating times of battery-powered sensors. The results show that predicting CO2 concentration based on relative humidity and temperature measurements, is difficult. Therefore, more additional information is needed.

Keywords: Indoor air quality, Modelling, Neural networks

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Authors: R. Leelaruji, V. Knazkins

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This paper proposes a methodology for mitigating the occurrence of cascading failure in stressed power systems. The methodology is essentially based on predicting voltage instability in the power system using a voltage stability index and then devising a corrective action in order to increase the voltage stability margin. The paper starts with a brief description of the cascading failure mechanism which is probable root cause of severe blackouts. Then, the voltage instability indices are introduced in order to evaluate stability limit. The aim of the analysis is to assure that the coordination of protection, by adopting load shedding scheme, capable of enhancing performance of the system after the major location of instability is determined. Finally, the proposed method to generate instability prediction is introduced.

Keywords: Blackouts, cascading failure, voltage stability indices, singular value decomposition, load shedding.

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Authors: Bilal Alatas, Ahmet Arslan

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The main goal of data mining is to extract accurate, comprehensible and interesting knowledge from databases that may be considered as large search spaces. In this paper, a new, efficient type of Genetic Algorithm (GA) called uniform two-level GA is proposed as a search strategy to discover truly interesting, high-level prediction rules, a difficult problem and relatively little researched, rather than discovering classification knowledge as usual in the literatures. The proposed method uses the advantage of uniform population method and addresses the task of generalized rule induction that can be regarded as a generalization of the task of classification. Although the task of generalized rule induction requires a lot of computations, which is usually not satisfied with the normal algorithms, it was demonstrated that this method increased the performance of GAs and rapidly found interesting rules.

Keywords: Classification rule mining, data mining, genetic algorithms.

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Authors: D. A. Farinde

Abstract:

One of the most significant threats to the economy of a nation is the bankruptcy of its banks. This study evaluates the susceptibility of Nigerian banks to failure with a view to identifying ratios and financial data that are sensitive to solvency of the bank. Further, a predictive model is generated to guide all stakeholders in the industry. Thirty quoted banks that had published Annual Reports for the year preceding the consolidation i.e. year 2004 were selected. They were examined for distress using the Multilayer Perceptron Neural Network Analysis. The model was used to analyze further reforms by the Central Bank of Nigeria using published Annual Reports of twenty quoted banks for the year 2008 and 2011. The model can thus be used for future prediction of failure in the Nigerian banking system.

Keywords: Bank, Bankruptcy, Financial Ratios, Neural Network, Multilayer Perceptron, Predictive Model

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Authors: Ahmed Kayad Abdourazak, Abderafi Souad, Zejli Driss, Idriss Abdoulkader Ibrahim

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In this paper Artificial Neural Network (ANN) is used to predict the solar irradiation in Djibouti for the first Time that is useful to the integration of Concentrating Solar Power (CSP) and sites selections for new or future solar plants as part of solar energy development. An ANN algorithm was developed to establish a forward/reverse correspondence between the latitude, longitude, altitude and monthly solar irradiation. For this purpose the German Aerospace Centre (DLR) data of eight Djibouti sites were used as training and testing in a standard three layers network with the back propagation algorithm of Lavenber-Marquardt. Results have shown a very good agreement for the solar irradiation prediction in Djibouti and proves that the proposed approach can be well used as an efficient tool for prediction of solar irradiation by providing so helpful information concerning sites selection, design and planning of solar plants.

Keywords: Artificial neural network, solar irradiation, concentrated solar power, Lavenberg-Marquardt.

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Authors: Salvatore Marra, Francesco C. Morabito

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In this paper we present an efficient approach for the prediction of two sunspot-related time series, namely the Yearly Sunspot Number and the IR5 Index, that are commonly used for monitoring solar activity. The method is based on exploiting partially recurrent Elman networks and it can be divided into three main steps: the first one consists in a “de-rectification" of the time series under study in order to obtain a new time series whose appearance, similar to a sum of sinusoids, can be modelled by our neural networks much better than the original dataset. After that, we normalize the derectified data so that they have zero mean and unity standard deviation and, finally, train an Elman network with only one input, a recurrent hidden layer and one output using a back-propagation algorithm with variable learning rate and momentum. The achieved results have shown the efficiency of this approach that, although very simple, can perform better than most of the existing solar activity forecasting methods.

Keywords: Elman neural networks, sunspot, solar activity, time series prediction.

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Authors: Gabriele Bedon, Marco Raciti Castelli, Ernesto Benini

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A dynamic stall-corrected Blade Element-Momentum algorithm based on a hybrid polar is validated through the comparison with Sandia experimental measurements on a 5-m diameter wind turbine of Troposkien shape. Different dynamic stall models are evaluated. The numerical predictions obtained using the extended aerodynamic coefficients provided by both Sheldal and Klimas and Raciti Castelli et al. are compared to experimental data, determining the potential of the hybrid database for the numerical prediction of vertical-axis wind turbine performances.

Keywords: Darrieus wind turbine, Blade Element-Momentum Theory, extended airfoil database, hybrid database, Sandia 5-m wind turbine.

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Authors: Perumal Nallagownden, Ravindra N. Mukerjee, Syafrudin Masri

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In a competitive energy market, system reliability should be maintained at all times. Power system operation being of online in nature, the energy balance requirements must be satisfied to ensure reliable operation the system. To achieve this, information regarding the expected status of the system, the scheduled transactions and the relevant inputs necessary to make either a transaction contract or a transmission contract operational, have to be made available in real time. The real time procedure proposed, facilitates this. This paper proposes a quadratic curve learning procedure, which enables a generator-s contribution to the retailer demand, power loss of transaction in a line at the retail end and its associated losses for an oncoming operating scenario to be predicted. Matlab program was used to test in on a 24-bus IEE Reliability Test System, and the results are found to be acceptable.

Keywords: Deregulation, learning coefficients, reliability, prediction, competitive energy market.

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Authors: Latha Parthiban, R. Subramanian

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Heart disease (HD) is a major cause of morbidity and mortality in the modern society. Medical diagnosis is an important but complicated task that should be performed accurately and efficiently and its automation would be very useful. All doctors are unfortunately not equally skilled in every sub specialty and they are in many places a scarce resource. A system for automated medical diagnosis would enhance medical care and reduce costs. In this paper, a new approach based on coactive neuro-fuzzy inference system (CANFIS) was presented for prediction of heart disease. The proposed CANFIS model combined the neural network adaptive capabilities and the fuzzy logic qualitative approach which is then integrated with genetic algorithm to diagnose the presence of the disease. The performances of the CANFIS model were evaluated in terms of training performances and classification accuracies and the results showed that the proposed CANFIS model has great potential in predicting the heart disease.

Keywords: CANFIS, genetic algorithms, heart disease, membership function.

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Authors: S. J. Matlan, M. Mukhlisin, M. R. Taha

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Characterization of the engineering behavior of unsaturated soil is dependent on the soil-water characteristic curve (SWCC), a graphical representation of the relationship between water content or degree of saturation and soil suction. A reasonable description of the SWCC is thus important for the accurate prediction of unsaturated soil parameters. The measurement procedures for determining the SWCC, however, are difficult, expensive, and timeconsuming. During the past few decades, researchers have laid a major focus on developing empirical equations for predicting the SWCC, with a large number of empirical models suggested. One of the most crucial questions is how precisely existing equations can represent the SWCC. As different models have different ranges of capability, it is essential to evaluate the precision of the SWCC models used for each particular soil type for better SWCC estimation. It is expected that better estimation of SWCC would be achieved via a thorough statistical analysis of its distribution within a particular soil class. With this in view, a statistical analysis was conducted in order to evaluate the reliability of the SWCC prediction models against laboratory measurement. Optimization techniques were used to obtain the best-fit of the model parameters in four forms of SWCC equation, using laboratory data for relatively coarse-textured (i.e., sandy) soil. The four most prominent SWCCs were evaluated and computed for each sample. The result shows that the Brooks and Corey model is the most consistent in describing the SWCC for sand soil type. The Brooks and Corey model prediction also exhibit compatibility with samples ranging from low to high soil water content in which subjected to the samples that evaluated in this study.

Keywords: Soil-water characteristic curve (SWCC), statistical analysis, unsaturated soil.

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Authors: Dhahri Maher, Aouinet Hana

Abstract:

The presence of bubbles in the boundary layer introduces corrections into the log law, which must be taken into account. In this work, a logarithmic wall law was presented for bubbly two phase flows. The wall law presented in this work was based on the postulation of additional turbulent viscosity associated with bubble wakes in the boundary layer. The presented wall law contained empirical constant accounting both for shear induced turbulence interaction and for non-linearity of bubble. This constant was deduced from experimental data. The wall friction prediction achieved with the wall law was compared to the experimental data, in the case of a turbulent boundary layer developing on a vertical flat plate in the presence of millimetric bubbles. A very good agreement between experimental and numerical wall friction prediction was verified. The agreement was especially noticeable for the low void fraction when bubble induced turbulence plays a significant role.

Keywords: Bubbly flows, log law, boundary layer.

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