Search results for: Short term aging
1687 Simulating Laboratory Short Term Aging to Suit Malaysian Field Conditions
Authors: Meor O. Hamzah, Seyed R. Omranian, Ali Jamshidi, Mohd R M. Hasan
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This paper characterizes the effects of artificial short term aging in the laboratory on the rheological properties of virgin 80/100 penetration grade asphalt binder. After several years in service, asphalt mixture started to deteriorate due to aging. Aging is a complex physico-chemical phenomenon that influences asphalt binder rheological properties causing a deterioration in asphalt mixture performance. To ascertain asphalt binder aging effects, the virgin, artificially aged and extracted asphalt binder were tested via the Rolling Thin film Oven (RTFO), Dynamic Shear Rheometer (DSR) and Rotational Viscometer (RV). A comparative study between laboratory and field aging conditions were also carried out. The results showed that the specimens conditioned for 85 minutes inside the RTFO was insufficient to simulate the actual short term aging caused that took place in the field under Malaysian field conditionsKeywords: Asphalt binder, Short term aging, Rheological properties, Viscosity, Temperature susceptibility.
Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 25281686 The Effect of Saturates on Rheological and Aging Characteristics of Bitumen
Authors: Madi Hermadi, Kemas A. Zamhari, Ahmad T. bin A. Karim, Mohd. E. Abdullah, Ling Lloyd L.
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According to Rostler method (ASTM D 2006), saturates content of bitumen is determined based on its reactivity to sulphuric acid. While Corbett method (ASTM D 4124) based on its polarity level. This paper presents results from the study on the effect of saturates content determined by two different fractionation methods on the rheological and aging characteristics of bitumen. The result indicated that the increment of saturates content tended to reduce all the rheological characteristics concerned. Bitumen became less elastic, less viscous, and less resistant to plastic deformation, but became more resistant to fatigue cracking. After short and long term aging process, the treatment effect coefficients of saturates decreased, saturates became thicker due to aging process. This study concludes that saturates is not really stable or reactive in aging process. Therefore, the reactivity of saturates should be considered in bitumen aging index
Keywords: Aging index, bitumen, saturates, rheolgy.
Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 23781685 Synchronization of Oestrus in Goats with Progestogen Sponges and Short Term Combined FGA, PGF2α Protocols
Authors: G. Martemucci, D. Casamassima, A. G. D'Alessandro
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The study aimed to evaluated the reproductive performance response to short term oestrus synchronization during the transition period. One hundred and sixty-five indigenous multiparous non-lactating goats were subdivided into the following six treatment groups for oestrus synchronization: NT control Group (N= 30), Fe-21d, FGA vaginal sponge for 21days+eCG at 19thd; FPe- 11d, FGA 11d + PGF2α and eCG at 9th d; FPe-10d, FGA 10d+ PGF2α and eCG at 8th d; FPe-9d, FGA 9d +PGF2α and eCG at 7thd; PFe-5d, PGF2α at d0 + FGA 5d + eCG at 5thd. The goats were natural mated (1 male/6 females). Fecundity rates (n. births /n. females treated x 100) were statistically higher (P < 0.05) in short term FPe-9d (157.9%), FPe- 11d (115.4%), FPe-10d (111.1%) and PFe-5d (107.7%) groups compared to the NT control Group (66.7%).
Keywords: Goats, oestrus synchronization, short-term protocols.
Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 44621684 On-Chip Aging Sensor Circuit Based on Phase Locked Loop Circuit
Authors: Ararat Khachatryan, Davit Mirzoyan
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In sub micrometer technology, the aging phenomenon starts to have a significant impact on the reliability of integrated circuits by bringing performance degradation. For that reason, it is important to have a capability to evaluate the aging effects accurately. This paper presents an accurate aging measurement approach based on phase-locked loop (PLL) and voltage-controlled oscillator (VCO) circuit. The architecture is rejecting the circuit self-aging effect from the characteristics of PLL, which is generating the frequency without any aging phenomena affects. The aging monitor is implemented in low power 32 nm CMOS technology, and occupies a pretty small area. Aging simulation results show that the proposed aging measurement circuit improves accuracy by about 2.8% at high temperature and 19.6% at high voltage.
Keywords: Nanoscale, aging, effect, NBTI, HCI.
Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 14241683 Aging Behaviour of 6061 Al-15 vol% SiC Composite in T4 and T6 Treatments
Authors: Melby Chacko, Jagannath Nayak
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The aging behaviour of 6061 Al-15 vol% SiC composite was investigated using Rockwell B hardness measurement. The composite was solutionized at 350°C and quenched in water. The composite was aged at room temperature (T4 treatment) and also at 140°C, 160°C, 180°C and 200°C (T6 treatment). The natural and artificial aging behaviour of composite was studied using aging curves determined at different temperatures. The aging period for peak aging for different temperatures was identified. The time required for attaining peak aging decreased with increase in the aging temperature. The peak hardness was found to increase with increase with aging temperature and the highest peak hardness was observed at 180ºC. Beyond 180ºC the peak hardness was found to be decreasing.
Keywords: 6061 Al-SiC composite, Aging curve, Rockwell B hardness, T4, T6 treatments.
Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 47701682 Neural Networks for Short Term Wind Speed Prediction
Authors: K. Sreelakshmi, P. Ramakanthkumar
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Predicting short term wind speed is essential in order to prevent systems in-action from the effects of strong winds. It also helps in using wind energy as an alternative source of energy, mainly for Electrical power generation. Wind speed prediction has applications in Military and civilian fields for air traffic control, rocket launch, ship navigation etc. The wind speed in near future depends on the values of other meteorological variables, such as atmospheric pressure, moisture content, humidity, rainfall etc. The values of these parameters are obtained from a nearest weather station and are used to train various forms of neural networks. The trained model of neural networks is validated using a similar set of data. The model is then used to predict the wind speed, using the same meteorological information. This paper reports an Artificial Neural Network model for short term wind speed prediction, which uses back propagation algorithm.Keywords: Short term wind speed prediction, Neural networks, Back propagation.
Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 30671681 Fast Short-Term Electrical Load Forecasting under High Meteorological Variability with a Multiple Equation Time Series Approach
Authors: Charline David, Alexandre Blondin Massé, Arnaud Zinflou
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We present a multiple equation time series approach for the short-term load forecasting applied to the electrical power load consumption for the whole Quebec province, in Canada. More precisely, we take into account three meteorological variables — temperature, cloudiness and wind speed —, and we use meteorological measurements taken at different locations on the territory. Our final model shows an average MAPE score of 1.79% over an 8-years dataset.
Keywords: Short-term load forecasting, special days, time series, multiple equations, parallelization, clustering.
Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 2901680 An Approach to Practical Determination of Fair Premium Rates in Crop-Hail Insurance Using Short-Term Insurance Data
Authors: Necati Içer
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Crop-hail insurance plays a vital role in managing risks and reducing the financial consequences of hail damage on crop production. Predicting insurance premium rates with short-term data is a major challenge in numerous nations because of the unique characteristics of hailstorms. This study aims to suggest a feasible approach for establishing equitable premium rates in crop-hail insurance for nations with short-term insurance data. The primary goal of the rate-making process is to determine premium rates for high and zero loss costs of villages and enhance their credibility. To do this, a technique was created using the author's practical knowledge of crop-hail insurance. With this approach, the rate-making method was developed using a range of temporal and spatial factor combinations with both hypothetical and real data, including extreme cases. This article aims to show how to incorporate the temporal and spatial elements into determining fair premium rates using short-term insurance data. The article ends with a suggestion on the ultimate premium rates for insurance contracts.
Keywords: Crop-hail insurance, premium rate, short-term insurance data, spatial and temporal parameters.
Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 321679 Two Day Ahead Short Term Load Forecasting Neural Network Based
Authors: Firas M. Tuaimah
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This paper presents an Artificial Neural Network based approach for short-term load forecasting and exactly for two days ahead. Two seasons have been discussed for Iraqi power system, namely summer and winter; the hourly load demand is the most important input variables for ANN based load forecasting. The recorded daily load profile with a lead time of 1-48 hours for July and December of the year 2012 was obtained from the operation and control center that belongs to the Ministry of Iraqi electricity.
The results of the comparison show that the neural network gives a good prediction for the load forecasting and for two days ahead.
Keywords: Short-Term Load Forecasting, Artificial Neural Networks, Back propagation learning.
Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 15601678 Evaluate Aging Effect of SBS Modified Bitumen
Authors: Seyed Abbas Tabatabaei
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One of the important factors of cracks on the asphalt pavements is bitumen aging that associated with the loss of volatile components and oxidation of asphalt binder. This paper is about effect of Styrene-Butadiene-Styrene (SBS) polymer on asphalt aging In order to decrease asphalt aging effects. For this purpose samples of base bitumen and SBS modified bitumen aged according to the rolling thin film oven test (RTFOT) and pressure aging vessel (PAV), respectively. Properties of each sample were evaluated using Fourier Transform Infrared (FTIR) spectroscopy, n-heptane precipitation, viscosity test, softening point test and penetration test. FT-IR Analysis, showed lower oxidation of SBS modified bitumen than base bitumen, after aging.Keywords: SBS, Asphalt aging, modified bitumen.
Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 31511677 Aging and Mechanical Behavior of Be-Treated 7075 Aluminum Alloys
Authors: Mahmoud M. Tash, S. Alkahtani
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The present study was undertaken to investigate the effect of pre-aging and aging parameters (time and temperature) on the mechanical properties of Al-Mg-Zn (7075) alloys. Ultimate tensile strength, 0.5% offset yield strength and % elongation measurements were carried out on specimens prepared from cast and heat treated 7075 alloys. Aging treatments were carried out for the as solution treated (SHT) specimens (after quenching in warm water). The specimens were aged at different conditions; Natural aging was carried out at room temperature for different periods of time. Double aging was performed for SHT conditions (pre-aged at different time and temperature followed by high temperature aging). Ultimate tensile strength, yield strength and % elongation as a function of different pre-aging and aging parameters are analyzed to acquire an understanding of the effects of these variables and their interactions on the mechanical properties of Be-treated 7075 alloys.
Keywords: Duplex Aging Treatment, Mechanical Properties, Al-Mg-Zn (7075) alloys.
Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 57301676 Analysis of Multilayer Neural Network Modeling and Long Short-Term Memory
Authors: Danilo López, Nelson Vera, Luis Pedraza
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This paper analyzes fundamental ideas and concepts related to neural networks, which provide the reader a theoretical explanation of Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) networks operation classified as Deep Learning Systems, and to explicitly present the mathematical development of Backward Pass equations of the LSTM network model. This mathematical modeling associated with software development will provide the necessary tools to develop an intelligent system capable of predicting the behavior of licensed users in wireless cognitive radio networks.Keywords: Neural networks, multilayer perceptron, long short-term memory, recurrent neuronal network, mathematical analysis.
Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 15621675 Memory and Higher Cognition
Authors: A. Páchová
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Working memory (WM) can be defined as the system which actively holds information in the mind to do tasks in spite of the distraction. Contrary, short-term memory (STM) is a system that represents the capacity for the active storing of information without distraction. There has been accumulating evidence that these types of memory are related to higher cognition (HC). The aim of this study was to verify the relationship between HC and memory (visual STM and WM, auditory STM and WM). 59 primary school children were tested by intelligence test, mathematical tasks (HC) and memory subtests. We have shown that visual but not auditory memory is a significant predictor of higher cognition. The relevance of these results are discussed.Keywords: higher cognition, long-term memory, short-term memory, working memory
Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 15511674 Experimental Study of Hyperparameter Tuning a Deep Learning Convolutional Recurrent Network for Text Classification
Authors: Bharatendra Rai
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Sequences of words in text data have long-term dependencies and are known to suffer from vanishing gradient problem when developing deep learning models. Although recurrent networks such as long short-term memory networks help overcome this problem, achieving high text classification performance is a challenging problem. Convolutional recurrent networks that combine advantages of long short-term memory networks and convolutional neural networks, can be useful for text classification performance improvements. However, arriving at suitable hyperparameter values for convolutional recurrent networks is still a challenging task where fitting of a model requires significant computing resources. This paper illustrates the advantages of using convolutional recurrent networks for text classification with the help of statistically planned computer experiments for hyperparameter tuning.
Keywords: Convolutional recurrent networks, hyperparameter tuning, long short-term memory networks, Tukey honest significant differences
Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 1161673 Evaluating the Durability and Safety of Lithium-Ion Batteries in High-Temperature Desert Climates
Authors: Kenza Maher, Yahya Zakaria, Noora S. Al-Jaidah
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Temperature is a critical parameter for lithium-ion battery performance, life, and safety. In this study, four commercially available 18650 lithium-ion cells from four different manufacturers are subjected to accelerated cycle aging for up to 500 cycles at two different temperatures (25 °C and 45 °C). The cells are also calendar-aged at the same temperatures in both charged and discharged states for six months to investigate the effect of aging and temperature on capacity fade and state of health. The results showed that all battery cells demonstrated good cyclability and had a good state of health at both temperatures. However, the capacity loss and state of health of these cells are found to be dependent on the cell chemistry and aging conditions, including temperature. Specifically, the capacity loss is found to be higher at the higher aging temperature, indicating the significant impact of temperature on the aging of lithium-ion batteries.
Keywords: Lithium-ion battery, aging mechanisms, cycle aging, calendar aging.
Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 2071672 Case Study of the Exercise Habits and Aging Anxiety of Taiwanese Insurance Agents
Authors: W. T. Hsu, H. L. Tsai
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The rapid aging of the population is a common trend in the world. However, the progress of modern medical technology has increased the average life expectancy. The global population structure has changed dramatically, and the elderly population has risen rapidly. In the face of rapid population growth, it must be noted issues of the aging population must face up to, which are the physiological, psychological, and social problems associated with aging. This study aims to investigate how insurance agents are actively dealing with an aging society, their own aging anxiety, and their exercise habits. Purposive sampling was the sampling method of this study, a total of 204 respondents were surveyed and 204 valid surveys were returned. The returned valid ratio was 100%. Statistical method included descriptive statistics, t-test, and one-way ANOVA. The results of the study found that the insurance agent’s age, seniority, exercise habits to aging anxiety are significantly different.
Keywords: Insurance agent, aging anxiety, exercise habits, elderly.
Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 11891671 The Use of Real Measurements and GPS Data for Noise Mapping of Riyadh City
Authors: M. A. Foda, K. A. Alsaif, M. M. ElMadany, A.S. Aguib
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In this paper, the noise maps for the area encircled by the Second Ring Road in Riyadh city are developed based on real measured data. Sound level meters, GPS receivers to determine measurement position, a database program to manage the measured data, and a program to develop the maps are used. A baseline noise level has been established at each short-term site so subsequent monitoring may be conducted to describe changes in Riyadh-s noise environment. Short-term sites are used to show typical daytime and nighttime noise levels at specific locations by short duration grab sampling.Keywords: Noise mapping, Noise measurements, GPS, noise level.
Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 21591670 Evaluation of Short-Term Load Forecasting Techniques Applied for Smart Micro Grids
Authors: Xiaolei Hu, Enrico Ferrera, Riccardo Tomasi, Claudio Pastrone
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Load Forecasting plays a key role in making today's and future's Smart Energy Grids sustainable and reliable. Accurate power consumption prediction allows utilities to organize in advance their resources or to execute Demand Response strategies more effectively, which enables several features such as higher sustainability, better quality of service, and affordable electricity tariffs. It is easy yet effective to apply Load Forecasting at larger geographic scale, i.e. Smart Micro Grids, wherein the lower available grid flexibility makes accurate prediction more critical in Demand Response applications. This paper analyses the application of short-term load forecasting in a concrete scenario, proposed within the EU-funded GreenCom project, which collect load data from single loads and households belonging to a Smart Micro Grid. Three short-term load forecasting techniques, i.e. linear regression, artificial neural networks, and radial basis function network, are considered, compared, and evaluated through absolute forecast errors and training time. The influence of weather conditions in Load Forecasting is also evaluated. A new definition of Gain is introduced in this paper, which innovatively serves as an indicator of short-term prediction capabilities of time spam consistency. Two models, 24- and 1-hour-ahead forecasting, are built to comprehensively compare these three techniques.
Keywords: Short-term load forecasting, smart micro grid, linear regression, artificial neural networks, radial basis function network, Gain.
Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 26021669 Effect of T6 and Re-Aging Heat Treatment on Mechanical Properties of 7055 Aluminum Alloy
Authors: M. Esmailian, M. Shakouri, A. Mottahedi, S. G. Shabestari
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Heat treatable aluminum alloys such as 7075 and 7055, because of high strength and low density, are used widely in aircraft industry. For best mechanical properties, T6 heat treatment has recommended for this regards, but this temper treatment is sensitive to corrosion induced and Stress Corrosion Cracking (SCC) damage. For improving this property, the over-aging treatment (T7) applies to this alloy, but it decreases the mechanical properties up to 30 percent. Hence, to increase the mechanical properties, without any remarkable decrease in SCC resistant, Retrogression and Re-Aging (RRA) heat treatment is used. This treatment performs in a relatively short time. In this paper, the RRA heat treatment was applied to 7055 aluminum alloy and then effect of RRA time on the mechanical properties of 7055 has been investigated. The results show that the 40-minute time is suitable time for retrogression of 7055 aluminum alloy and ultimate strength increases up to 625MPa.Keywords: 7055 Aluminum alloy, Mechanical properties, SCC resistance, Heat Treatment.
Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 30591668 A New Method in Short-Term Heart Rate Variability — Five-Class Density Histogram
Authors: Liping Li, Ke Li, Changchun Liu, Chengyu Liu, Yuanyang Li
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A five-class density histogram with an index named cumulative density was proposed to analyze the short-term HRV. 150 subjects participated in the test, falling into three groups with equal numbers -- the healthy young group (Young), the healthy old group (Old), and the group of patients with congestive heart failure (CHF). Results of multiple comparisons showed a significant differences of the cumulative density in the three groups, with values 0.0238 for Young, 0.0406 for Old and 0.0732 for CHF (p<0.001). After 7 days and 14 days, 46 subjects from the Young and Old groups were retested twice following the same test protocol. Results showed good-to-excellent interclass correlations (ICC=0.783, 95% confidence interval 0.676-0.864). The Bland-Altman plots were used to reexamine the test-retest reliability. In conclusion, the method proposed could be a valid and reliable method to the short-term HRV assessment.
Keywords: Autonomic nervous system, congestive heart failure, heart rate variability, histogram.
Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 20101667 Analysis of Codebook Based Channel Feedback Techniques for MIMO-OFDM Systems
Authors: Muhammad Rehan Khalid, Ahmed Farhan Hanif, Adnan Ahmed Khan
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This paper investigates the performance of Multiple- Input Multiple-Output (MIMO) feedback system combined with Orthogonal Frequency Division Multiplexing (OFDM). Two types of codebook based channel feedback techniques are used in this work. The first feedback technique uses a combination of both the long-term and short-term channel state information (CSI) at the transmitter, whereas the second technique uses only the short term CSI. The long-term and short-term CSI at the transmitter is used for efficient channel utilization. OFDM is a powerful technique employed in communication systems suffering from frequency selectivity. Combined with multiple antennas at the transmitter and receiver, OFDM proves to be robust against delay spread. Moreover, it leads to significant data rates with improved bit error performance over links having only a single antenna at both the transmitter and receiver. The effectiveness of these techniques has been demonstrated through the simulation of a MIMO-OFDM feedback system. The results have been evaluated for 4x4 MIMO channels. Simulation results indicate the benefits of the MIMO-OFDM channel feedback system over the one without incorporating OFDM. Performance gain of about 3 dB is observed for MIMO-OFDM feedback system as compared to the one without employing OFDM. Hence MIMO-OFDM becomes an attractive approach for future high speed wireless communication systems.
Keywords: MIMO systems, OFDM, Codebooks, Channel Feedback
Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 16751666 Energy Consumption and Economic Growth in South Asian Countries: A Co-integrated Panel Analysis
Authors: S. Noor, M. W. Siddiqi
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This study examines causal link between energy use and economic growth for five South Asian countries over period 1971-2006. Panel cointegration, ECM and FMOLS are applied for short and long run estimates. In short run unidirectional causality from per capita GDP to per capita energy consumption is found, but not vice versa. In long run one percent increase in per capita energy consumption tend to decrease 0.13 percent per capita GDP. i.e. Energy use discourage economic growth. This short and long run relationship indicate energy shortage crisis in South Asia due to increased energy use coupled with insufficient energy supply. Beside this long run estimated coefficient of error term suggest that short term adjustment to equilibrium are driven by adjustment back to long run equilibrium. Moreover, per capita energy consumption is responsive to adjustment back to equilibrium and it takes 59 years approximately. It specifies long run feedback between both variables.
Keywords: Energy consumption, Income, Panel co-integration, Causality.
Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 33131665 Fuzzy Ideology based Long Term Load Forecasting
Authors: Jagadish H. Pujar
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Fuzzy Load forecasting plays a paramount role in the operation and management of power systems. Accurate estimation of future power demands for various lead times facilitates the task of generating power reliably and economically. The forecasting of future loads for a relatively large lead time (months to few years) is studied here (long term load forecasting). Among the various techniques used in forecasting load, artificial intelligence techniques provide greater accuracy to the forecasts as compared to conventional techniques. Fuzzy Logic, a very robust artificial intelligent technique, is described in this paper to forecast load on long term basis. The paper gives a general algorithm to forecast long term load. The algorithm is an Extension of Short term load forecasting method to Long term load forecasting and concentrates not only on the forecast values of load but also on the errors incorporated into the forecast. Hence, by correcting the errors in the forecast, forecasts with very high accuracy have been achieved. The algorithm, in the paper, is demonstrated with the help of data collected for residential sector (LT2 (a) type load: Domestic consumers). Load, is determined for three consecutive years (from April-06 to March-09) in order to demonstrate the efficiency of the algorithm and to forecast for the next two years (from April-09 to March-11).
Keywords: Fuzzy Logic Control (FLC), Data DependantFactors(DDF), Model Dependent Factors(MDF), StatisticalError(SE), Short Term Load Forecasting (STLF), MiscellaneousError(ME).
Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 24691664 Iraqi Short Term Electrical Load Forecasting Based On Interval Type-2 Fuzzy Logic
Authors: Firas M. Tuaimah, Huda M. Abdul Abbas
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Accurate Short Term Load Forecasting (STLF) is essential for a variety of decision making processes. However, forecasting accuracy can drop due to the presence of uncertainty in the operation of energy systems or unexpected behavior of exogenous variables. Interval Type 2 Fuzzy Logic System (IT2 FLS), with additional degrees of freedom, gives an excellent tool for handling uncertainties and it improved the prediction accuracy. The training data used in this study covers the period from January 1, 2012 to February 1, 2012 for winter season and the period from July 1, 2012 to August 1, 2012 for summer season. The actual load forecasting period starts from January 22, till 28, 2012 for winter model and from July 22 till 28, 2012 for summer model. The real data for Iraqi power system which belongs to the Ministry of Electricity.
Keywords: Short term load forecasting, prediction interval, type 2 fuzzy logic systems.
Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 18881663 Application of Neural Networks for 24-Hour-Ahead Load Forecasting
Authors: Fatemeh Mosalman Yazdi
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One of the most important requirements for the operation and planning activities of an electrical utility is the prediction of load for the next hour to several days out, known as short term load forecasting. This paper presents the development of an artificial neural network based short-term load forecasting model. The model can forecast daily load profiles with a load time of one day for next 24 hours. In this method can divide days of year with using average temperature. Groups make according linearity rate of curve. Ultimate forecast for each group obtain with considering weekday and weekend. This paper investigates effects of temperature and humidity on consuming curve. For forecasting load curve of holidays at first forecast pick and valley and then the neural network forecast is re-shaped with the new data. The ANN-based load models are trained using hourly historical. Load data and daily historical max/min temperature and humidity data. The results of testing the system on data from Yazd utility are reported.Keywords: Artificial neural network, Holiday forecasting, pickand valley load forecasting, Short-term load-forecasting.
Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 21931662 Effect of Be, Zr and Heat Treatment on Mechanical Behavior of Cast Al-Mg-Zn-Cu Alloys (7075)
Authors: Mahmoud M. Tash
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The present study was undertaken to investigate the effect of aging parameters (time and temperature) on the mechanical properties of Be-and/or Zr- treated Al-Mg-Zn (7075) alloys. Ultimate tensile strength, 0.5% offset yield strength and % elongation measurements were carried out on specimens prepared from cast and heat treated 7075 alloys containing Be and/or Zr. Different aging treatment were carried out for the as solution treated (SHT) specimens (after quenching in warm water). The specimens were aged at different conditions; Natural and artificial aging was carried out at room temperature, 120C, 150C, 180C and 220C for different periods of time. Duplex aging was performed for SHT conditions (pre-aged at different time and temperature followed by high temperature aging). Ultimate tensile strength, yield strength and % elongation data results as a function of different aging parameters are analysed. A statistical design of experiments (DOE) approach using fractional factorial design is applied to acquire an understanding of the effects of these variables and their interactions on the mechanical properties of Be- and/or Zr- treated 7075 alloys. Mathematical models are developed to relate the alloy mechanical properties with the different aging parameters.
Keywords: Casting, Aging Treatment, Mechanical Properties, Al-Mg-Zn (7075) alloys, Be- and/or Zr-Treatment, Experimental Correlation.
Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 19741661 Long-term Flexural Behavior of HSC Beams
Authors: Andreea Muntean, Cornelia Măgureanu
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This article presents the analysis of experimental values regarding cracking pattern, specific strains and deformability for reinforced high strength concrete beams. The beams have the concrete class C80/95 and a longitudinal reinforcement ratio of 2.01%, respectively 3.39%. The elements were subjected to flexure under static short-term and long-term loading. The experimental values are compared with calculation values using the design relationships according to Eurocode 2.
Keywords: High strength concrete, beams, flexure.
Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 15931660 Germination and Seed Vigor Response of Five Wheat Cultivars to Stress of Premature Aging Effects
Authors: M. Soltani Howyzeh, N. Kardoni, M. Mojadam
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To evaluate the vigor of wheat seeds and stress of premature aging effects on germination percentage, root length and shoot length of five wheat cultivars that include Vynak, Karkheh, Chamran, Star and Kavir which underwent a period of zero, two, three, four days in terms of premature aging with 41°C temperature and 100% relative humidity. Seed germination percentage, root length and shoot length in these conditions were measured. This experiment was conducted as a factorial completely randomized design with four replications in laboratory conditions. The results showed that each of aging treatments used in this experiment can be used to detect differences in vigor of wheat varieties. Wheat cultivars illustrated significant differences in germination percentage, root length and shoot length in terms of premature aging. The wheat cultivars; Astar and Vynak had maximum germination percentage and Karkheh, respectively Kavir and Chamran had lowest percentage of seed germination. Reactions of root and shoot length of wheat cultivars was also different. The results showed that the seeds with a stronger vigor affected less in premature aging condition and the difference between the percentage of seed germination under normal conditions and stress was significant and the seeds with the weaker vigor were more sensitive to the premature aging stress and the premature aging had more severe negative impact on seed vigor.Keywords: Wheat cultivars, seed vigor, premature aging effects.
Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 18651659 Mechanical Behavior of Geosynthetics vs. the Combining Effect of Aging, Temperature, and Internal Structure
Authors: Jaime Carpio-García, Elena Blanco-Fernández, Jorge Rodríguez-Hernández, Daniel Castro-Fresno
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Geosynthetic mechanical behavior vs temperature or vs aging has been widely studied independently during the last years, both in laboratory and in outdoor conditions. This paper studies this behavior deeper, considering that geosynthetics have to perform adequately at different outdoor temperatures once they have been subjected to a certain degree of aging, and also considering the different geosynthetic structures made of the same material. This combining effect has been not considered so far and it is important to ensure the performance of geosynthetics, especially where high temperatures are expected. In order to fill this gap six commercial geosynthetics with different internal structures made of polypropylene (PP), high density polyethylene (HDPE), bitumen and polyvinyl chloride (PVC), or even a combination of some of them, have been mechanically tested at mild temperature (20 ºC or 23 ºC) and at warm temperature (45 ºC) before and after specific exposition to air at standardized high temperature in order to simulate 25 years of aging due to oxidation. Besides, for 45 ºC tests, a heating system during test for high deformable specimens is proposed. The influence of the combining effect of aging, structure and temperature in the product behavior has been analyzed and discussed, concluding that internal structure is more influential than aging in the mechanical behavior of a geosynthetic versus temperature.
Keywords: Aging, geosynthetics, internal structure, temperature.
Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 481658 Artificial Neural Network Approach for Short Term Load Forecasting for Illam Region
Authors: Mohsen Hayati, Yazdan Shirvany
Abstract:
In this paper, the application of neural networks to study the design of short-term load forecasting (STLF) Systems for Illam state located in west of Iran was explored. One important architecture of neural networks named Multi-Layer Perceptron (MLP) to model STLF systems was used. Our study based on MLP was trained and tested using three years (2004-2006) data. The results show that MLP network has the minimum forecasting error and can be considered as a good method to model the STLF systems.Keywords: Artificial neural networks, Forecasting, Multi-layer perceptron.
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