Search results for: Predicted models
Commenced in January 2007
Frequency: Monthly
Edition: International
Paper Count: 2874

Search results for: Predicted models

2694 Alternative Splicingof an Arabidopsis Gene, At2g24600, Encoding Ankyrin-Repeat Protein

Authors: H. Sakamoto, S. Kurosawa, M. Suzuki, S. Oguri

Abstract:

In Arabidopsis, several genes encoding proteins with ankyrin repeats and transmembrane domains (AtANKTM) have been identified as mediators of biotic and abiotic stress responses. It has been known that the expression of an AtANKTM gene, At2g24600, is induced in response to abiotic stress and that there are four splicing variants derived from this locus. In this study, by RT-PCR and sequencing analysis, an unknown splicing variant of the At2g24600 transcript was identified. Based on differences in the predicted amino acid sequences, the five splicing variants are divided into three groups. The three predicted proteins are highly homologous, yet have different numbers of ankyrinrepeats and transmembrane domains. It is generally considered that ankyrin repeats mediate protein-protein interaction and that the number oftransmembrane domains affects membrane topology of proteins. The protein variants derived from the At2g24600 locus may have different molecular functions each other.

Keywords: Alternative splicing, ankyrin repeats, transmembrane domains, Arabidopsis.

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2693 Credit Spread Changes and Volatility Spillover Effects

Authors: Thomas I. Kounitis

Abstract:

The purpose of this paper is to investigate the influence of a number of variables on the conditional mean and conditional variance of credit spread changes. The empirical analysis in this paper is conducted within the context of bivariate GARCH-in- Mean models, using the so-called BEKK parameterization. We show that credit spread changes are determined by interest-rate and equityreturn variables, which is in line with theory as provided by the structural models of default. We also identify the credit spread change volatility as an important determinant of credit spread changes, and provide evidence on the transmission of volatility between the variables under study.

Keywords: Credit spread changes, GARCH-in-Mean models, structural framework, volatility transmission.

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2692 Semi Empirical Equations for Peak Shear Strength of Rectangular Reinforced Concrete Walls

Authors: Ali Kezmane, Said Boukais, Mohand Hamizi

Abstract:

This paper presents an analytical study on the behavior of reinforced concrete walls with rectangular cross section. Several experiments on such walls have been selected to be studied. Database from various experiments were collected and nominal shear wall strengths have been calculated using formulas, such as those of the ACI (American), NZS (New Zealand), Mexican (NTCC), and Wood and Barda equations. Subsequently, nominal shear wall strengths from the formulas were compared with the ultimate shear wall strengths from the database. These formulas vary substantially in functional form and do not account for all variables that affect the response of walls. There is substantial scatter in the predicted values of ultimate shear strength. Two new semi empirical equations are developed using data from tests of 57 walls for transitions walls and 27 for slender walls with the objective of improving the prediction of peak strength of walls with the most possible accurate.

Keywords: Shear strength, reinforced concrete walls, rectangular walls, shear walls, models.

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2691 Models of State Organization and Influence over Collective Identity and Nationalism in Spain

Authors: Muñoz-Sanchez, Victor Manuel, Perez-Flores, Antonio Manuel

Abstract:

The main objective of this paper is to establish the relationship between models of state organization and the various types of collective identity expressed by the Spanish. The question of nationalism and identity ascription in Spain has always been a topic of special importance due to the presence in that country of territories where the population emits very different opinions of nationalist sentiment than the rest of Spain. The current situation of sovereignty challenge of Catalonia to the central government exemplifies the importance of the subject matter. In order to analyze this process of interrelation, we use a secondary data mining by applying the multiple correspondence analysis technique (MCA). As a main result a typology of four types of expression of collective identity based on models of State organization are shown, which are connected with the party position on this issue.

Keywords: Models of organization of the state, nationalism, collective identity, Spain, political parties.

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2690 Models and Metamodels for Computer-Assisted Natural Language Grammar Learning

Authors: Evgeny Pyshkin, Maxim Mozgovoy, Vladislav Volkov

Abstract:

The paper follows a discourse on computer-assisted language learning. We examine problems of foreign language teaching and learning and introduce a metamodel that can be used to define learning models of language grammar structures in order to support teacher/student interaction. Special attention is paid to the concept of a virtual language lab. Our approach to language education assumes to encourage learners to experiment with a language and to learn by discovering patterns of grammatically correct structures created and managed by a language expert.

Keywords: Computer-assisted instruction, Language learning, Natural language grammar models, HCI.

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2689 Word Recognition and Learning based on Associative Memories and Hidden Markov Models

Authors: Zöhre Kara Kayikci, Günther Palm

Abstract:

A word recognition architecture based on a network of neural associative memories and hidden Markov models has been developed. The input stream, composed of subword-units like wordinternal triphones consisting of diphones and triphones, is provided to the network of neural associative memories by hidden Markov models. The word recognition network derives words from this input stream. The architecture has the ability to handle ambiguities on subword-unit level and is also able to add new words to the vocabulary during performance. The architecture is implemented to perform the word recognition task in a language processing system for understanding simple command sentences like “bot show apple".

Keywords: Hebbian learning, hidden Markov models, neuralassociative memories, word recognition.

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2688 A New Brazilian Friction-Resistant Low Alloy High Strength Steel – A Life Testing Approach

Authors: D. I. De Souza, G. P. Azevedo, R. Rocha

Abstract:

In this paper we will develop a sequential life test approach applied to a modified low alloy-high strength steel part used in highway overpasses in Brazil.We will consider two possible underlying sampling distributions: the Normal and theInverse Weibull models. The minimum life will be considered equal to zero. We will use the two underlying models to analyze a fatigue life test situation, comparing the results obtained from both.Since a major chemical component of this low alloy-high strength steel part has been changed, there is little information available about the possible values that the parameters of the corresponding Normal and Inverse Weibull underlying sampling distributions could have. To estimate the shape and the scale parameters of these two sampling models we will use a maximum likelihood approach for censored failure data. We will also develop a truncation mechanism for the Inverse Weibull and Normal models. We will provide rules to truncate a sequential life testing situation making one of the two possible decisions at the moment of truncation; that is, accept or reject the null hypothesis H0. An example will develop the proposed truncated sequential life testing approach for the Inverse Weibull and Normal models.

Keywords: Sequential life testing, normal and inverse Weibull models, maximum likelihood approach, truncation mechanism.

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2687 Investigation of Layer Thickness and Surface Roughness on Aerodynamic Coefficients of Wind Tunnel RP Models

Authors: S. Daneshmand, A. Ahmadi Nadooshan, C. Aghanajafi

Abstract:

Traditional wind tunnel models are meticulously machined from metal in a process that can take several months. While very precise, the manufacturing process is too slow to assess a new design's feasibility quickly. Rapid prototyping technology makes this concurrent study of air vehicle concepts via computer simulation and in the wind tunnel possible. This paper described the Affects layer thickness models product with rapid prototyping on Aerodynamic Coefficients for Constructed wind tunnel testing models. Three models were evaluated. The first model was a 0.05mm layer thickness and Horizontal plane 0.1μm (Ra) second model was a 0.125mm layer thickness and Horizontal plane 0.22μm (Ra) third model was a 0.15mm layer thickness and Horizontal plane 4.6μm (Ra). These models were fabricated from somos 18420 by a stereolithography (SLA). A wing-body-tail configuration was chosen for the actual study. Testing covered the Mach range of Mach 0.3 to Mach 0.9 at an angle-of-attack range of -2° to +12° at zero sideslip. Coefficients of normal force, axial force, pitching moment, and lift over drag are shown at each of these Mach numbers. Results from this study show that layer thickness does have an effect on the aerodynamic characteristics in general; the data differ between the three models by fewer than 5%. The layer thickness does have more effect on the aerodynamic characteristics when Mach number is decreased and had most effect on the aerodynamic characteristics of axial force and its derivative coefficients.

Keywords: Aerodynamic characteristics, stereolithography, layer thickness, Rapid prototyping, surface finish.

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2686 Continuum-Based Modelling Approaches for Cell Mechanics

Authors: Yogesh D. Bansod, Jiri Bursa

Abstract:

The quantitative study of cell mechanics is of paramount interest, since it regulates the behaviour of the living cells in response to the myriad of extracellular and intracellular mechanical stimuli. The novel experimental techniques together with robust computational approaches have given rise to new theories and models, which describe cell mechanics as combination of biomechanical and biochemical processes. This review paper encapsulates the existing continuum-based computational approaches that have been developed for interpreting the mechanical responses of living cells under different loading and boundary conditions. The salient features and drawbacks of each model are discussed from both structural and biological points of view. This discussion can contribute to the development of even more precise and realistic computational models of cell mechanics based on continuum approaches or on their combination with microstructural approaches, which in turn may provide a better understanding of mechanotransduction in living cells.

Keywords: Cell mechanics, computational models, continuum approach, mechanical models.

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2685 Modeling of Compaction Curves for Corn Cob Ash-Cement Stabilized Lateritic Soils

Authors: O. A. Apampa, Y. A. Jimoh, K. A. Olonade

Abstract:

The need to save time and cost of soil testing at the planning stage of road work has necessitated developing predictive models. This study proposes a model for predicting the dry density of lateritic soils stabilized with corn cob ash (CCA) and blended cement - CCA. Lateritic soil was first stabilized with CCA at 1.5, 3.0, 4.5 and 6% of the weight of soil and then stabilized with the same proportions as replacement for cement. Dry density, specific gravity, maximum degree of saturation and moisture content were determined for each stabilized soil specimen, following standard procedure. Polynomial equations containing alpha and beta parameters for CCA and blended CCA-cement were developed. Experimental values were correlated with the values predicted from the Matlab curve fitting tool, and the Solver function of Microsoft Excel 2010. The correlation coefficient (R2) of 0.86 was obtained indicating that the model could be accepted in predicting the maximum dry density of CCA stabilized soils to facilitate quick decision making in roadworks.

Keywords: Corn cob ash, lateritic soil, stabilization, maximum dry density, moisture content.

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2684 The Predictability and Abstractness of Language: A Study in Understanding and Usage of the English Language through Probabilistic Modeling and Frequency

Authors: Revanth Sai Kosaraju, Michael Ramscar, Melody Dye

Abstract:

Accounts of language acquisition differ significantly in their treatment of the role of prediction in language learning. In particular, nativist accounts posit that probabilistic learning about words and word sequences has little to do with how children come to use language. The accuracy of this claim was examined by testing whether distributional probabilities and frequency contributed to how well 3-4 year olds repeat simple word chunks. Corresponding chunks were the same length, expressed similar content, and were all grammatically acceptable, yet the results of the study showed marked differences in performance when overall distributional frequency varied. It was found that a distributional model of language predicted the empirical findings better than a number of other models, replicating earlier findings and showing that children attend to distributional probabilities in an adult corpus. This suggested that language is more prediction-and-error based, rather than on abstract rules which nativist camps suggest.

Keywords: Abstractness, child psychology, language acquisition, prediction and error.

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2683 Generation Expansion Planning Strategies on Power System: A Review

Authors: V. Phupha, T. Lantharthong, N. Rugthaicharoencheep

Abstract:

The problem of generation expansion planning (GEP) has been extensively studied for many years. This paper presents three topics in GEP as follow: statistical model, models for generation expansion, and expansion problem. In the topic of statistical model, the main stages of the statistical modeling are briefly explained. Some works on models for GEP are reviewed in the topic of models for generation expansion. Finally for the topic of expansion problem, the major issues in the development of a longterm expansion plan are summarized.

Keywords: Generation expansion planning, strategies, power system

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2682 Estimation of Missing or Incomplete Data in Road Performance Measurement Systems

Authors: Kristjan Kuhi, Kati K. Kaare, Ott Koppel

Abstract:

Modern management in most fields is performance based; both planning and implementation of maintenance and operational activities are driven by appropriately defined performance indicators. Continuous real-time data collection for management is becoming feasible due to technological advancements. Outdated and insufficient input data may result in incorrect decisions. When using deterministic models the uncertainty of the object state is not visible thus applying the deterministic models are more likely to give false diagnosis. Constructing structured probabilistic models of the performance indicators taking into consideration the surrounding indicator environment enables to estimate the trustworthiness of the indicator values. It also assists to fill gaps in data to improve the quality of the performance analysis and management decisions. In this paper authors discuss the application of probabilistic graphical models in the road performance measurement and propose a high-level conceptual model that enables analyzing and predicting more precisely future pavement deterioration based on road utilization.

Keywords: Probabilistic graphical models, performance indicators, road performance management, data collection

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2681 Numerical Simulation of a Single Air Bubble Rising in Water with Various Models of Surface Tension Force

Authors: Afshin Ahmadi Nadooshan, Ebrahim Shirani

Abstract:

Different numerical methods are employed and developed for simulating interfacial flows. A large range of applications belong to this group, e.g. two-phase flows of air bubbles in water or water drops in air. In such problems surface tension effects often play a dominant role. In this paper, various models of surface tension force for interfacial flows, the CSF, CSS, PCIL and SGIP models have been applied to simulate the motion of small air bubbles in water and the results were compared and reviewed. It has been pointed out that by using SGIP or PCIL models, we are able to simulate bubble rise and obtain results in close agreement with the experimental data.

Keywords: Volume-of-Fluid, Bubble Rising, SGIP model, CSS model, CSF model, PCIL model, interface, surface tension force.

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2680 A Computational Stochastic Modeling Formalism for Biological Networks

Authors: Werner Sandmann, Verena Wolf

Abstract:

Stochastic models of biological networks are well established in systems biology, where the computational treatment of such models is often focused on the solution of the so-called chemical master equation via stochastic simulation algorithms. In contrast to this, the development of storage-efficient model representations that are directly suitable for computer implementation has received significantly less attention. Instead, a model is usually described in terms of a stochastic process or a "higher-level paradigm" with graphical representation such as e.g. a stochastic Petri net. A serious problem then arises due to the exponential growth of the model-s state space which is in fact a main reason for the popularity of stochastic simulation since simulation suffers less from the state space explosion than non-simulative numerical solution techniques. In this paper we present transition class models for the representation of biological network models, a compact mathematical formalism that circumvents state space explosion. Transition class models can also serve as an interface between different higher level modeling paradigms, stochastic processes and the implementation coded in a programming language. Besides, the compact model representation provides the opportunity to apply non-simulative solution techniques thereby preserving the possible use of stochastic simulation. Illustrative examples of transition class representations are given for an enzyme-catalyzed substrate conversion and a part of the bacteriophage λ lysis/lysogeny pathway.

Keywords: Computational Modeling, Biological Networks, Stochastic Models, Markov Chains, Transition Class Models.

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2679 A New Divide and Conquer Software Process Model

Authors: Hina Gull, Farooque Azam, Wasi Haider Butt, Sardar Zafar Iqbal

Abstract:

The software system goes through a number of stages during its life and a software process model gives a standard format for planning, organizing and running a project. The article presents a new software development process model named as “Divide and Conquer Process Model", based on the idea first it divides the things to make them simple and then gathered them to get the whole work done. The article begins with the backgrounds of different software process models and problems in these models. This is followed by a new divide and conquer process model, explanation of its different stages and at the end edge over other models is shown.

Keywords: Process Model, Waterfall, divide and conquer, Requirements.

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2678 A Comparison of the Sum of Squares in Linear and Partial Linear Regression Models

Authors: Dursun Aydın

Abstract:

In this paper, estimation of the linear regression model is made by ordinary least squares method and the partially linear regression model is estimated by penalized least squares method using smoothing spline. Then, it is investigated that differences and similarity in the sum of squares related for linear regression and partial linear regression models (semi-parametric regression models). It is denoted that the sum of squares in linear regression is reduced to sum of squares in partial linear regression models. Furthermore, we indicated that various sums of squares in the linear regression are similar to different deviance statements in partial linear regression. In addition to, coefficient of the determination derived in linear regression model is easily generalized to coefficient of the determination of the partial linear regression model. For this aim, it is made two different applications. A simulated and a real data set are considered to prove the claim mentioned here. In this way, this study is supported with a simulation and a real data example.

Keywords: Partial Linear Regression Model, Linear RegressionModel, Residuals, Deviance, Smoothing Spline.

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2677 Application of Fuzzy Logic Approach for an Aircraft Model with and without Winglet

Authors: Altab Hossain, Ataur Rahman, Jakir Hossen, A.K.M. P. Iqbal, SK. Hasan

Abstract:

The measurement of aerodynamic forces and moments acting on an aircraft model is important for the development of wind tunnel measurement technology to predict the performance of the full scale vehicle. The potentials of an aircraft model with and without winglet and aerodynamic characteristics with NACA wing No. 65-3- 218 have been studied using subsonic wind tunnel of 1 m × 1 m rectangular test section and 2.5 m long of Aerodynamics Laboratory Faculty of Engineering (University Putra Malaysia). Focusing on analyzing the aerodynamic characteristics of the aircraft model, two main issues are studied in this paper. First, a six component wind tunnel external balance is used for measuring lift, drag and pitching moment. Secondly, Tests are conducted on the aircraft model with and without winglet of two configurations at Reynolds numbers 1.7×105, 2.1×105, and 2.5×105 for different angle of attacks. Fuzzy logic approach is found as efficient for the representation, manipulation and utilization of aerodynamic characteristics. Therefore, the primary purpose of this work was to investigate the relationship between lift and drag coefficients, with free-stream velocities and angle of attacks, and to illustrate how fuzzy logic might play an important role in study of lift aerodynamic characteristics of an aircraft model with the addition of certain winglet configurations. Results of the developed fuzzy logic were compared with the experimental results. For lift coefficient analysis, the mean of actual and predicted values were 0.62 and 0.60 respectively. The coreelation between actual and predicted values (from FLS model) of lift coefficient in different angle of attack was found as 0.99. The mean relative error of actual and predicted valus was found as 5.18% for the velocity of 26.36 m/s which was found to be less than the acceptable limits (10%). The goodness of fit of prediction value was 0.95 which was close to 1.0.

Keywords: Wind tunnel; Winglet; Lift coefficient; Fuzzy logic.

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2676 Fast Facial Feature Extraction and Matching with Artificial Face Models

Authors: Y. H. Tsai, Y. W. Chen

Abstract:

Facial features are frequently used to represent local properties of a human face image in computer vision applications. In this paper, we present a fast algorithm that can extract the facial features online such that they can give a satisfying representation of a face image. It includes one step for a coarse detection of each facial feature by AdaBoost and another one to increase the accuracy of the found points by Active Shape Models (ASM) in the regions of interest. The resulted facial features are evaluated by matching with artificial face models in the applications of physiognomy. The distance measure between the features and those in the fate models from the database is carried out by means of the Hausdorff distance. In the experiment, the proposed method shows the efficient performance in facial feature extractions and online system of physiognomy.

Keywords: Facial feature extraction, AdaBoost, Active shapemodel, Hausdorff distance

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2675 Prediction of Unsteady Forced Convection over Square Cylinder in the Presence of Nanofluid by Using ANN

Authors: Ajoy Kumar Das, Prasenjit Dey

Abstract:

Heat transfer due to forced convection of copper water based nanofluid has been predicted by Artificial Neural network (ANN). The present nanofluid is formed by mixing copper nanoparticles in water and the volume fractions are considered here are 0% to 15% and the Reynolds number are kept constant at 100. The back propagation algorithm is used to train the network. The present ANN is trained by the input and output data which has been obtained from the numerical simulation, performed in finite volume based Computational Fluid Dynamics (CFD) commercial software Ansys Fluent. The numerical simulation based results are compared with the back propagation based ANN results. It is found that the forced convection heat transfer of water based nanofluid can be predicted correctly by ANN. It is also observed that the back propagation ANN can predict the heat transfer characteristics of nanofluid very quickly compared to standard CFD method.

Keywords: Forced convection, Square cylinder, nanofluid, neural network.

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2674 Implied Adjusted Volatility by Leland Option Pricing Models: Evidence from Australian Index Options

Authors: Mimi Hafizah Abdullah, Hanani Farhah Harun, Nik Ruzni Nik Idris

Abstract:

With the implied volatility as an important factor in financial decision-making, in particular in option pricing valuation, and also the given fact that the pricing biases of Leland option pricing models and the implied volatility structure for the options are related, this study considers examining the implied adjusted volatility smile patterns and term structures in the S&P/ASX 200 index options using the different Leland option pricing models. The examination of the implied adjusted volatility smiles and term structures in the Australian index options market covers the global financial crisis in the mid-2007. The implied adjusted volatility was found to escalate approximately triple the rate prior the crisis.

Keywords: Implied adjusted volatility, Financial crisis, Leland option pricing models.

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2673 Dental Students’ Attitude towards Problem-Based Learning before and after Implementing 3D Electronic Dental Models

Authors: Hai Ming Wong, Kuen Wai Ma, Lavender Yu Xin Yang, Yanqi Yang

Abstract:

Objectives: In recent years, the Faculty of Dentistry of the University of Hong Kong have extended the implementation of 3D electronic models (e-models) into problem-based learning (PBL) of the Bachelor of Dental Surgery (BDS) curriculum, aiming at mutual enhancement of PBL teaching quality and the students’ skills in using e-models. This study focuses on the effectiveness of e-models serving as a tool to enhance the students’ skills and competences in PBL. Methods: The questionnaire surveys are conducted to measure 50 fourth-year BDS students’ attitude change between beginning and end of blended PBL tutorials. The response rate of this survey is 100%. Results: The results of this study show the students’ agreement on enhancement of their learning experience after e-model implementation and their expectation to have more blended PBL courses in the future. The potential of e-models in cultivating students’ self-learning skills reduces their dependence on others, while improving their communication skills to argue about pros and cons of different treatment options. The students’ independent thinking ability and problem solving skills are promoted by e-model implementation, resulting in better decision making in treatment planning. Conclusion: It is important for future dental education curriculum planning to cope with the students’ needs, and offer support in the form of software, hardware and facilitators’ assistance for better e-model implementation.

Keywords: Problem-Based learning, curriculum, dental education, 3-D electronic models.

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2672 Comparative Study of Experimental and Theoretical Convective, Evaporative for Two Model Distiller

Authors: Khaoula Hidouri, Ali Benhmidene, Bechir Chouachi

Abstract:

The purification of brackish seawater becomes a necessity and not a choice against demographic and industrial growth especially in third world countries. Two models can be used in this work: simple solar still and simple solar still coupled with a heat pump. In this research, the productivity of water by Simple Solar Distiller (SSD) and Simple Solar Distiller Hybrid Heat Pump (SSDHP) was determined by the orientation, the use of heat pump, the simple or double glass cover. The productivity can exceed 1.2 L/m²h for the SSDHP and 0.5 L/m²h for SSD model. The result of the global efficiency is determined for two models SSD and SSDHP give respectively 30%, 50%. The internal efficiency attained 35% for SSD and 60% of the SSDHP models. Convective heat coefficient can be determined by attained 2.5 W/m²°C and 0.5 W/m²°C respectively for SSDHP and SSD models.

Keywords: Productivity, efficiency, convective heat coefficient, SSD model, SSDHP model.

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2671 Simple and Advanced Models for Calculating Single-Phase Diode Rectifier Line-Side Harmonics

Authors: Hussein A. Kazem, Abdulhakeem Abdullah Albaloshi, Ali Said Ali Al-Jabri, Khamis Humaid AlSaidi

Abstract:

This paper proposes different methods for estimation of the harmonic currents of the single-phase diode bridge rectifier. Both simple and advanced methods are compared and the models are put into a context of practical use for calculating the harmonic distortion in a typical application. Finally, the different models are compared to measurements of a real application and convincing results are achieved.

Keywords: Single-phase rectifier, line side Harmonics

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2670 The Impact of Semantic Web on E-Commerce

Authors: Karim Heidari

Abstract:

Semantic Web Technologies enable machines to interpret data published in a machine-interpretable form on the web. At the present time, only human beings are able to understand the product information published online. The emerging semantic Web technologies have the potential to deeply influence the further development of the Internet Economy. In this paper we propose a scenario based research approach to predict the effects of these new technologies on electronic markets and business models of traders and intermediaries and customers. Over 300 million searches are conducted everyday on the Internet by people trying to find what they need. A majority of these searches are in the domain of consumer ecommerce, where a web user is looking for something to buy. This represents a huge cost in terms of people hours and an enormous drain of resources. Agent enabled semantic search will have a dramatic impact on the precision of these searches. It will reduce and possibly eliminate information asymmetry where a better informed buyer gets the best value. By impacting this key determinant of market prices semantic web will foster the evolution of different business and economic models. We submit that there is a need for developing these futuristic models based on our current understanding of e-commerce models and nascent semantic web technologies. We believe these business models will encourage mainstream web developers and businesses to join the “semantic web revolution."

Keywords: E-Commerce, E-Business, Semantic Web, XML.

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2669 Travel Time Model for Cylinder Type Parking System

Authors: Jing Zhang, Jie Chen

Abstract:

In this paper, we mainly analyze an automated parking system where the storage and retrieval requests are performed by a tower crane. In this parking system, the S/R crane which is located at the middle of the bottom of the cylinder parking area can rotate in both clockwise and counterclockwise and three kinds of movements can be done simultaneously. We develop some mathematical travel time models for the single command cycle under the random storage assignment using the characteristics of this system. Finally, we compare these travel models with discrete case and it is shown that these travel models display a good satisfactory performance.

Keywords: Parking system, travel time model, tower crane.

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2668 Object-Oriented Simulation of Simulating Anticipatory Systems

Authors: Eugene Kindler

Abstract:

The present paper is oriented to problems of simulation of anticipatory systems, namely those that use simulation models for the aid of anticipation. A certain analogy between use of simulation and imagining will be applied to make the explication more comprehensible. The paper will be completed by notes of problems and by some existing applications. The problems consist in the fact that simulation of the mentioned anticipatory systems end is simulation of simulating systems, i.e. in computer models handling two or more modeled time axes that should be mapped to real time flow in a nondescent manner. Languages oriented to objects, processes and blocks can be used to surmount the problems.

Keywords: Anticipatory systems, Nested computer models, Discrete event simulation, Simula.

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2667 Comparative Analysis of the Stochastic and Parsimonious Interest Rates Models on Croatian Government Market

Authors: Zdravka Aljinović, Branka Marasović, Blanka Škrabić

Abstract:

The paper provides a discussion of the most relevant aspects of yield curve modeling. Two classes of models are considered: stochastic and parsimonious function based, through the approaches developed by Vasicek (1977) and Nelson and Siegel (1987). Yield curve estimates for Croatia are presented and their dynamics analyzed and finally, a comparative analysis of models is conducted.

Keywords: the term structure of interest rates, Vasicek model, Nelson-Siegel model, Croatian Government market.

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2666 Using Exponential Lévy Models to Study Implied Volatility patterns for Electricity Options

Authors: Pinho C., Madaleno M.

Abstract:

German electricity European options on futures using Lévy processes for the underlying asset are examined. Implied volatility evolution, under each of the considered models, is discussed after calibrating for the Merton jump diffusion (MJD), variance gamma (VG), normal inverse Gaussian (NIG), Carr, Geman, Madan and Yor (CGMY) and the Black and Scholes (B&S) model. Implied volatility is examined for the entire sample period, revealing some curious features about market evolution, where data fitting performances of the five models are compared. It is shown that variance gamma processes provide relatively better results and that implied volatility shows significant differences through time, having increasingly evolved. Volatility changes for changed uncertainty, or else, increasing futures prices and there is evidence for the need to account for seasonality when modelling both electricity spot/futures prices and volatility.

Keywords: Calibration, Electricity Markets, Implied Volatility, Lévy Models, Options on Futures, Pricing

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2665 Project Management Maturity Models and Organizational Project Management Maturity Model (OPM3®): A Critical Morphological Evaluation

Authors: Farrokh J., Azhar K. Mansur

Abstract:

There exists a strong correlation between efficient project management and competitive advantage for organizations. Therefore, organizations are striving to standardize and assess the rigor of their project management processes and capabilities i.e. project management maturity. Researchers and standardization organizations have developed several project management maturity models (PMMMs) to assess project management maturity of the organizations. This study presents a critical evaluation of some of the leading PMMMs against OPM3® in a multitude of ways to look at which PMMM is the most comprehensive model - which could assess most aspects of organizations and also help the organizations in gaining competitive advantage over competitors. After a detailed morphological analysis of the models, it is concluded that OPM3® is the most promising maturity model that can really provide a competitive advantage to the organizations due to its unique approach of assessment and improvement strategies.

Keywords: Project management maturity, project managemen tmaturity models, competitive advantage.

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