Search results for: Econometric methods

Authors: Paula Simões, Isabel Natário

Abstract:

This paper reviews a number of theoretical aspects for implementing an explicit spatial perspective in econometrics for modelling non-continuous data, in general, and count data, in particular. It provides an overview of the several spatial econometric approaches that are available to model data that are collected with reference to location in space, from the classical spatial econometrics approaches to the recent developments on spatial econometrics to model count data, in a Bayesian hierarchical setting. Considerable attention is paid to the inferential framework, necessary for structural consistent spatial econometric count models, incorporating spatial lag autocorrelation, to the corresponding estimation and testing procedures for different assumptions, to the constrains and implications embedded in the various specifications in the literature. This review combines insights from the classical spatial econometrics literature as well as from hierarchical modeling and analysis of spatial data, in order to look for new possible directions on the processing of count data, in a spatial hierarchical Bayesian econometric context.

Keywords: Spatial data analysis, spatial econometrics, Bayesian hierarchical models, count data.

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Authors: J. Arneric, E. Jurun, L. Kordic

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This paper deals with econometric analysis of real retail trade turnover. It is a part of an extensive scientific research about modern trends in Croatian national economy. At the end of the period of transition economy, Croatia confronts with challenges and problems of high consumption society. In such environment as crucial economic variables: real retail trade turnover, average monthly real wages and household loans are chosen for consequence analysis. For the purpose of complete procedure of multiple econometric analysis data base adjustment has been provided. Namely, it has been necessary to deflate original national statistics data of retail trade turnover using consumer price indices, as well as provide process of seasonally adjustment of its contemporary behavior. In model establishment it has been necessary to involve the overcoming procedure for the autocorrelation and colinearity problems. Moreover, for case of time-series shift a specific appropriate econometric instrument has been applied. It would be emphasize that the whole methodology procedure is based on the real Croatian national economy time-series.

Keywords: Consumption society, multiple econometric model, real retail trade turnover, second order autocorrelation.

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Authors: Mario Gómez, Won Ho Kim, Ángel Licona, José Carlos Rodríguez

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This article analyzes innovation activity in Mexico and South Korea. It develops an econometric model to test for structural breaks in the number of patent applications filed by residents and nonresidents in these countries during the period of 1965 to 2012. These changes may suggest that firms’ innovative capabilities have changed because of implementing different science, technology and innovation (STI) policies in Mexico and South Korea. Two important features characterize this research from others already developed by these authors. First, the theoretical research framework in this research is the debate between the assimilation view of growth and the accumulation view of growth. This characteristic suggests that trade liberalization should be accompanied by an adequate STI policy to boost competitiveness among indigenous firms. Second, the analysis in this research stresses the importance of key actors (e.g. governments) to successfully develop innovation capabilities among indigenous firms. Therefore, the question conducting this research is how STI policies in Mexico and South Korea contributed to develop firms’ innovation capabilities in these countries during last decades? The results from this research suggests that STI policy in South Korea was more suitable to boost innovation firms to compete in markets. Data to develop this research was released by the World Intellectual Property Organization (WIPO).

Keywords: Econometric methods, innovation, Mexico, South Korea, STI Policy.

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Authors: S. L. Tulasi Devi, R. N. Rao

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This paper focuses attention on specific aspects of entrepreneurial decisions relating to investment, both in the total fixed investments and plant & machinery (separately). Demand and financial factors, internal and external, are considered in the investment analysis. Finally the influence of determinants of fixed investment and investment plans are examined in Electric Power industry in India.

Keywords: Determinants, Electric Power Industry, Fixed Assets, Econometric Analysis.

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Authors: Alma Lucero Ortiz, Mario Gómez

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The purpose of this article is to conduct a theoretical and empirical study in order to analyze how the Supply Chain Management (SCM) and Supply Chain Responsiveness (SCR) affects the competitive advantage of the agrofood sector in 2017, in particular, the exporting companies of berries in Mexico. This work is presented in two parts, as a first part is developed a theoretical analysis of the main studies to measure the variables subject to the study. Subsequently an empirical study is carried out through field work and to process the data a logical econometric model is performed to be able to evaluate the effect of the SCM and SCR on the competitive advantage in the companies exporting berries. The results suggest that the SCM has a positive effect on the competitive advantage of the companies under study, so it is necessary to implement greater practices oriented towards a suitable SCM for the companies to achieve a competitive performance. In the case of SCR, it was found that this variable does not have effect on competitive advantage.

Keywords: Competitive advantage, econometric model, supply chain management, supply chain responsiveness, sustained competitive advantage.

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Authors: Joanna Stawska

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The main objective of this article is to examine the impact of interest rates on investments in Poland in the context of financial crisis. The paper also investigates the dependence of bank loans to enterprises on interbank market rates. The article studies the impact of interbank market rate on the level of investments in Poland. Besides, this article focuses on the research of the correlation between the level of corporate loans and the amount of investments in Poland in order to determine the indirect impact of central bank interest rates through the transmission mechanism of monetary policy on the real economy. To achieve the objective we have used econometric and statistical research methods like: econometric model and Pearson correlation coefficient. This analysis suggests that the central bank reference rate inversely proportionally affects the level of investments in Poland and this dependence is moderate. This is also important issue because it is related to preparing of Poland to accession to euro area. The research is important from both theoretical and empirical points of view. The formulated conclusions and recommendations determine the practical significance of the paper which may be used in the decision making process of monetary and economic authorities of the country.

Keywords: Central bank, financial crisis, interest rate, investments.

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Authors: Ģirts Brasliņš, Ilja Arefjevs, Nadežda Tarakanova

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The objective of countercyclical capital buffer is to encourage banks to build up buffers in good times that can be drawn down in bad times. The aim of the report is to assess such decisions by banks derived from three approaches. The approaches are the aggregate credit-to-GDP ratio, credit growth as well as banking sector profits. The approaches are implemented for Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania for the time period 2000-2012. The report compares three approaches and analyses their relevance to the Baltic States by testing the correlation between a growth in studied variables and a growth of corresponding gaps. Methods used in the empirical part of the report are econometric analysis as well as economic analysis, development indicators, relative and absolute indicators and other methods. The research outcome is a cross-Baltic comparison of two alternative approaches to establish or release a countercyclical capital buffer by banks and their implications for each Baltic country.

Keywords: Basel III, countercyclical capital buffer, banks, credit growth, Baltic States.

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Authors: Ie-jung Choi

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Since the feasibility study of R&D programs have been initiated for efficient public R&D investments, year 2008, feasibility studies have improved in terms of precision. Although experience related to these studies of R&D programs have increased to a certain point, still methodological improvement is required. The feasibility studies of R&D programs are consisted of various viewpoints, such as technology, policy, and economics. This research is to provide improvement methods to the economic perspective; especially the cost estimation process of R&D activities. First of all, the fundamental concept of cost estimation is reviewed. After the review, a statistical and econometric analysis method is applied as empirical analysis. Conclusively, limitations and further research directions are provided.

Keywords: Cost Estimation, R&D Program, Feasibility AnalysisStudy.

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Authors: Abdelgawad, Salah El-Tahawy

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This paper aimed to establish econometrical equation models for the Nile delta region in Egypt, which will represent a basement for future predictions of Lumpy skin disease outbreaks and its pathway in relation to climate change. Data of lumpy skin disease (LSD) outbreaks were collected from the cattle farms located in the provinces representing the Nile delta region during 1 January, 2015 to December, 2015. The obtained results indicated that there was a significant association between the degree of the LSD outbreaks and the investigated climate factors (temperature, wind speed, and humidity) and the outbreaks peaked during the months of June, July, and August and gradually decreased to the lowest rate in January, February, and December. The model obtained depicted that the increment of these climate factors were associated with evidently increment on LSD outbreaks on the Nile Delta of Egypt. The model validation process was done by the root mean square error (RMSE) and means bias (MB) which compared the number of LSD outbreaks expected with the number of observed outbreaks and estimated the confidence level of the model. The value of RMSE was 1.38% and MB was 99.50% confirming that this established model described the current association between the LSD outbreaks and the change on climate factors and also can be used as a base for predicting the of LSD outbreaks depending on the climatic change on the future.

Keywords: LSD, climate factors, econometric models, Nile Delta.

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Authors: Mario Gómez, José Carlos Rodríguez

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This paper analyzes innovation trends in South Korea by means of the number of patent applications filed by residents and nonresidents during the period 1965 to 2012. Making use of patent data released by the World Intellectual Property Organization (WIPO), we search for the presence of multiple structural changes in patent application series in this country. These changes may suggest that firms’ innovative activity has been modified as a result of implementing some science, technology and innovation (STI) policies. Accordingly, the new regulations implemented in this country in the last decades have influenced its innovative activity. The question conducting this research is thus how STI policies in South Korea have influenced its innovation activity. The results confirm the existence of multiple structural changes in the series of patent applications resulting from alternative STI policies implemented during these years.

Keywords: Econometric methods, innovation activity, South Korea, patent applications, science, technology and innovation (STI) policy.

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Authors: Nazira Kakulia, Tsotne Zhghenti

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The institutional development is one of the actual topics in economics science. New trends and directions of institutional development mostly depend on its structure and framework. Transformation of institutions is an important problem for every economy, especially for developing countries. The first research goal is to determine the importance and interactions between different institutions in Georgia. Using World Governance Indicators and Economic Freedom indexes it can be calculated the size for each institutional group. The second aim of this research is to evaluate Georgian institutional backwardness in comparison to other post-communist economies. We use statistical and econometric methods to evaluate the difference between the levels of institutional development in Georgia and in leading post-communist economies. Within the scope of this research, major findings are coefficients which are an assessment of their deviation (i.e. lag) of institutional indicators between Georgia and leading post-communist country which should be compared. The last part of the article includes analysis around the selected coefficients.

Keywords: Post-communist transition, institutions, economic growth, institutional development.

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Authors: Acumsiri Tantiakrnpanit

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This paper aims to examine the relationship between urbanization and income inequality in Thailand during the period 2002–2020, using a panel of data for 76 provinces collected from Thailand’s National Statistical Office (Labor Force Survey: LFS), as well as geospatial data from the U.S. Air Force Defense Meteorological Satellite Program (DMSP) and the Visible Infrared Imaging Radiometer Suite Day/Night band (VIIRS-DNB) satellite for 19 selected years. This paper employs two different definitions to identify urban areas: 1) Urban areas defined by Thailand's National Statistical Office (LFS), and 2) Urban areas estimated using nighttime light data from the DMSP and VIIRS-DNB satellite. The second method includes two sub-categories: 2.1) Determining urban areas by calculating nighttime light density with a population density of 300 people per square kilometer, and 2.2) Calculating urban areas based on nighttime light density corresponding to a population density of 1,500 people per square kilometer. The empirical analysis based on Ordinary Least Squares (OLS), fixed effects, and random effects models reveals a consistent U-shaped relationship between income inequality and urbanization. The findings from the econometric analysis demonstrate that urbanization or population density has a significant and negative impact on income inequality. Moreover, the square of urbanization shows a statistically significant positive impact on income inequality. Additionally, there is a negative association between logarithmically transformed income and income inequality. This paper also proposes the inclusion of satellite imagery, geospatial data, and spatial econometric techniques in future studies to conduct quantitative analysis of spatial relationships.

Keywords: Income inequality, nighttime light, population density, Thailand, urbanization.

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Authors: Y. Bhatt, N. Ghosh, N. Tiwari

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Acreage response function are modeled taking account of expected harvest prices, weather related variables and other non-price variables allowing for partial adjustment possibility. At the outset, based on the literature on price expectation formation, we explored suitable formulations for estimating the farmer’s expected prices. Assuming that farmers form expectations rationally, the prices of food and biofuel crops are modeled using time-series methods for possible ARCH/GARCH effects to account for volatility. The prices projected on the basis of the models are then inserted to proxy for the expected prices in the acreage response functions. Food crop acreages in different growing states are found sensitive to their prices relative to those of one or more of the biofuel crops considered. The required percentage improvement in food crop yields is worked to offset the acreage loss.

Keywords: Acreage response function, biofuel, food security, sustainable development.

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Authors: José Carlos Rodríguez, Mario Gómez

Abstract:

This paper analyzes innovation trends in Latin America countries by means of the number of patent applications filed by residents and non residents during the period 1965 to 2012. Making use of patent data released by the World Intellectual Property Organization (WIPO), we search for the presence of multiple structural changes in patent application series in Argentina, Brazil Chile, and Mexico. These changes may suggest that firms’ innovative activity has been modified as a result of implementing a particular science, technology and innovation (STI) policy. Accordingly, the new regulations implemented in these countries during 1980s and 1990s have influenced their intellectual property regimes. The question conducting this research is thus how STI policies in these countries have affected their innovation activity? The results achieved in this research confirm the existence of multiple structural changes in the series of patent applications resulting from STI policies implemented in these countries.

Keywords: Econometric methods, innovation activity, Latin America countries, patents, science, technology and innovation (STI) policy.

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Authors: Ilias A. Makris

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In this work, we attempt to analyze the contribution of innovative activities to firm performance and growth. We examine economic data from some of the economies that were heavily affected by current economic crisis: the countries of southern Europe (Portugal, Italy, Greece and Spain) and Ireland. Following literature, an appropriate econometric model is developed and several indicators are tested in order to disclose possible relation with innovative activity. Findings confirm the crucial effect of innovative process in economic activity, in firm and country level.

Keywords: Eurozone Periphery, Firm Performance, Innovative activity, R&D.

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Authors: Janak Raj Sharma, Rajni Sharma

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Based on Traub-s methods for solving nonlinear equation f(x) = 0, we develop two families of third-order methods for solving system of nonlinear equations F(x) = 0. The families include well-known existing methods as special cases. The stability is corroborated by numerical results. Comparison with well-known methods shows that the present methods are robust. These higher order methods may be very useful in the numerical applications requiring high precision in their computations because these methods yield a clear reduction in number of iterations.

Keywords: Nonlinear equations and systems, Newton's method, fixed point iteration, order of convergence.

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Authors: G.Mehdiyeva, M.Imanova, V.Ibrahimov

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Taking into account that many problems of natural sciences and engineering are reduced to solving initial-value problem for ordinary differential equations, beginning from Newton, the scientists investigate approximate solution of ordinary differential equations. There are papers of different authors devoted to the solution of initial value problem for ODE. The Euler-s known method that was developed under the guidance of the famous scientists Adams, Runge and Kutta is the most popular one among these methods. Recently the scientists began to construct the methods preserving some properties of Adams and Runge-Kutta methods and called them hybrid methods. The constructions of such methods are investigated from the middle of the XX century. Here we investigate one generalization of multistep and hybrid methods and on their base we construct specific methods of accuracy order p = 5 and p = 6 for k = 1 ( k is the order of the difference method).

Keywords: Multistep and hybrid methods, initial value problem, degree and stability of hybrid methods

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Authors: A. Novikova, L. Rocchi, G. Startiene

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Market and non-market outputs are produced jointly in agriculture. Their supply depends on the intensity and type of production. The role of agriculture as an economic activity and its effects are important for the Lithuanian case study, as agricultural land covers more than a half of country. Positive and negative externalities, created in agriculture are not considered in the market. Therefore, specific techniques such as stated preferences methods, in particular choice experiments (CE) are used for evaluation of non-market outputs in agriculture. The main aim of this paper is to present construction of the research path for evaluation of non-market farming system outputs in Lithuania. The conventional and organic farming, covering crops (including both cereal and industrial crops) and livestock (including dairy and cattle) production has been selected. The CE method and nested logit (NL) model were selected as appropriate for evaluation of non-market outputs of different farming systems in Lithuania. A pilot survey was implemented between October–November 2018, in order to test and improve the CE questionnaire. The results of the survey showed that the questionnaire is accepted and well understood by the respondents. The econometric modelling showed that the selected NL model could be used for the main survey. The understanding of the differences between organic and conventional farming by residents was identified. It was revealed that they are more willing to choose organic farming in comparison to conventional farming.

Keywords: Choice experiments, farming system, Lithuania market outputs, non-market outputs.

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Authors: Yifan Fan, Xudong Luo, Pingping Lin

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An essential task in the field of artificial intelligence is to allow computers to interact with people through natural language. Therefore, researches such as virtual assistants and dialogue systems have received widespread attention from industry and academia. The response generation plays a crucial role in dialogue systems, so to push forward the research on this topic, this paper surveys various methods for response generation. We sort out these methods into three categories. First one includes finite state machine methods, framework methods, and instance methods. The second contains full-text indexing methods, ontology methods, vast knowledge base method, and some other methods. The third covers retrieval methods and generative methods. We also discuss some hybrid methods based knowledge and deep learning. We compare their disadvantages and advantages and point out in which ways these studies can be improved further. Our discussion covers some studies published in leading conferences such as IJCAI and AAAI in recent years.

Keywords: Retrieval, generative, deep learning, response generation, knowledge.

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Authors: Robest Flasza, Milan Rippel, Jan Solc

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The main aim of this paper is to develop and calibrate an econometric model for modeling prices of long term electricity futures contracts. The calibration of our model is performed on data from EEX AG allowing us to capture the specific features of German electricity market. The data sample contains several structural breaks which have to be taken into account for modeling. We model the data with an ARIMAX model which reveals high correlation between the price of electricity futures contracts and prices of LT futures contracts of fuels (namely coal, natural gas and crude oil). Besides this, also a share price index of representative electricity companies traded on Xetra, spread between 10Y and 1Y German bonds and exchange rate between EUR and USD appeared to have significant explanatory power over these futures contracts on EEX.

Keywords: electricity futures, EEX, ARIMAX, emissionallowances

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Authors: Korbi Fakhri

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In this article, we have elaborated a study over the nature of financial intermediation in Islamic banks by comparison to those of conventional ones. We have found a striking difference between two kinds of intermediation. We tried, from another side, to study the relationship between the capital level and deficiency risk relying on econometric model, and we have obtained a positive and significant relation between the capital and the deficiency risk for the conventional banks. This means that when the capital of these banks increases, the deficiency risk increases as well. In return, since the Islamic banks are constrained to respect the Sharia Committee as well as customers’ demands that may, in certain contracts, choose to invest their capitals in projects they are interested in. These constraints have as effects to reduce the deficiency risk even when the capital increases.

Keywords: Conventional bank, deficiency risk, financial intermediation, Islamic bank.

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Authors: Anthony Spiteri Staines

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This paper examines and compares several of the most common real time methods. These methods are CORE, YSM, MASCOT, JSD, DARTS, RTSAD, ADARTS, CODARTS, HOOD, HRT-HOOD, ROOM, UML, UML-RT. The methods are compared using attributes like i) usability, ii) compositionality and iii) proper RT notations available. Finally some comparison results are given and discussed.

Keywords: Software Engineering Methods, MethodComparison, Real Time Analysis and Design.

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Authors: G.Mehdiyeva, V.Ibrahimov, M.Imanova

Abstract:

As is known, one of the priority directions of research works of natural sciences is introduction of applied section of contemporary mathematics as approximate and numerical methods to solving integral equation into practice. We fare with the solving of integral equation while studying many phenomena of nature to whose numerically solving by the methods of quadrature are mainly applied. Taking into account some deficiency of methods of quadrature for finding the solution of integral equation some sciences suggested of the multistep methods with constant coefficients. Unlike these papers, here we consider application of hybrid methods to the numerical solution of Volterra integral equation. The efficiency of the suggested method is proved and a concrete method with accuracy order p = 4 is constructed. This method in more precise than the corresponding known methods.

Keywords: Volterra integral equation, hybrid methods, stability and degree, methods of quadrature

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Authors: Ling Zheng, Yaping Wei, Kang Cao, Zheng Huang, Songpo Shi

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Not only is municipal pattern the institution basement of urban management, but it also determines the forms of the management results. There-s a considerable possibility of bankruptcy for China-s current municipal pattern as it-s an overdraft of land deal in fact. Based on the analysis of China-s current municipal pattern, the passage proposed an assumption of a new pattern verified legitimacy by conceptual as well as econometric models. Conclusion is: the added supernumerary value of investment in public goods was not included in China-s current municipal pattern, but hidden in the rising housing prices; we should set housing tax or municipal tax to optimize the municipal pattern, to correct the behavior of local governments and to ensure the regular development of China-s urbanization.

Keywords: Urban management, China's municipal pattern, land financial institution, housing tax, Public goods.

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Authors: M. Zare, S. Biau, M. Croq, Y. Roquelaure

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A wide variety of observational methods have been developed to evaluate the ergonomic workloads in manufacturing. However, the precision and accuracy of these methods remain a subject of debate. The aims of this study were to develop biomechanical methods to evaluate ergonomic workloads and to compare them with observational methods.

Two observational methods, i.e. SCANIA Ergonomic Standard (SES) and Rapid Upper Limb Assessment (RULA), were used to assess ergonomic workloads at two simulated workstations. They included four tasks such as tightening & loosening, attachment of tubes and strapping as well as other actions. Sensors were also used to measure biomechanical data (Inclinometers, Accelerometers, and Goniometers).

Our findings showed that in assessment of some risk factors both RULA & SES were in agreement with the results of biomechanical methods. However, there was disagreement on neck and wrist postures. In conclusion, the biomechanical approach was more precise than observational methods, but some risk factors evaluated with observational methods were not measurable with the biomechanical techniques developed.

Keywords: Ergonomic, Observational Method, Biomechanical method, Workload.

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Authors: Carlos Oliveira

Abstract:

This paper is a criticism of the traditional model of teaching and presents alternative teaching methods, different from the traditional lecture. These methods are accompanied by reports of experience of their application in a class. It was concluded that in the lecture, the student has a low learning rate and that other methods should be used to make the most engaging learning environment for the student, contributing (or facilitating) his learning process. However, the teacher should not use a single method, but rather a range of different methods to ensure the learning experience does not become repetitive and fatiguing for the student.

Keywords: Educational practices, experience report, IT in education, teaching methods.

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Authors: Kouamana Bousson, Paulo Machado

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The optimization and control problem for 4D trajectories is a subject rarely addressed in literature. In the 4D navigation problem we define waypoints, for each mission, where the arrival time is specified in each of them. One way to design trajectories for achieving this kind of mission is to use the trajectory optimization concepts. To solve a trajectory optimization problem we can use the indirect or direct methods. The indirect methods are based on maximum principle of Pontryagin, on the other hand, in the direct methods it is necessary to transform into a nonlinear programming problem. We propose an approach based on direct methods with a pseudospectral integration scheme built on Chebyshev polynomials.

Keywords: Pseudospectral Methods, Trajectory Optimization, 4DTrajectories

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Authors: K. Bokreta, D. Benanaya

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The objective of this study is to examine the relative effectiveness of monetary and fiscal policy in Algeria using the econometric modelling techniques of cointegration and vector error correction modelling to analyse and draw policy inferences. The chosen variables of fiscal policy are government expenditure and net taxes on products, while the effect of monetary policy is presented by the inflation rate and the official exchange rate. From the results, we find that in the long-run, the impact of government expenditures is positive, while the effect of taxes is negative on growth. Additionally, we find that the inflation rate is found to have little effect on GDP per capita but the impact of the exchange rate is insignificant. We conclude that fiscal policy is more powerful then monetary policy in promoting economic growth in Algeria.

Keywords: Economic growth, fiscal policy, monetary policy, VECM.

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Authors: Chigozirim N. Onwusiribe, Jude A. Mbanasor

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The potato value chain when harnessed can engage numerous youths and aid in the fight against poverty, malnutrition and unemployment. This study seeks to evaluate the level of youth participation in the potato value chain in Nigeria. Specifically, this study will examine the extent of youth participation in potato value chain, analyze the cost, benefits and sustainability of youth participation in the potato value chain, identify the factors that can propel or hinder youth participation in the potato value chain and make recommendations that will result in the increase in youth employment in the potato value chain. This study was conducted in the North Central and South East geopolitical zones of Nigeria. A multi stage sampling procedure was used to select 540 youths from the study areas. Focused group discussions and survey approach was used to elicit the required data. The data were analyzed using statistical and econometric tools. The study revealed that the potato value chain is very profitable.

Keywords: Potato, youths, value, chain, participation.

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Authors: Sayeed Salam

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An effort to develop a unit commitment approach capable of handling large power systems consisting of both thermal and hydro generating units offers a large profitable return. In order to be feasible, the method to be developed must be flexible, efficient and reliable. In this paper, various proposed methods have been described along with their strengths and weaknesses. As all of these methods have some sort of weaknesses, a comprehensive algorithm that combines the strengths of different methods and overcomes each other-s weaknesses would be a suitable approach for solving industry-grade unit commitment problem.

Keywords: Unit commitment, Solution methods, and Comprehensive algorithm.

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