Search results for: Credit Risk

Authors: A. Bulatbayeva, A. Kusainov

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In this article has been analyzed Kazakhstani experience in organizing the system after the institute of higher education, legislative-regulative assurance of master preparation, and statistic data in the republic. Have been the features of projecting the master programs, a condition of realization of studying credit system, have been analyzed the technologies of research teaching masters. In conclusion have been given some recommendation on creating personal-oriented environment of research teaching masters.

Keywords: Personal-oriented Environment, Research Teaching, Research Activity, the Technologies of Research Teaching

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Authors: Pema Choejey, David Murray, Chun Che Fung

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Bhutan is becoming increasingly dependent on Information and Communications Technologies (ICTs), especially the Internet for performing the daily activities of governments, businesses, and individuals. Consequently, information systems and networks are becoming more exposed and vulnerable to cybersecurity threats. This paper highlights the findings of the survey study carried out to understand the perceptions of cybersecurity implementation among government organizations in Bhutan. About 280 ICT personnel were surveyed about the effectiveness of cybersecurity implementation in their organizations. A questionnaire based on a 5 point Likert scale was used to assess the perceptions of respondents. The questions were asked on cybersecurity practices such as cybersecurity policies, awareness and training, and risk management. The survey results show that less than 50% of respondents believe that the cybersecurity implementation is effective: cybersecurity policy (40%), risk management (23%), training and awareness (28%), system development life cycle (34%); incident management (26%), and communications and operational management (40%). The findings suggest that many of the cybersecurity practices are inadequately implemented and therefore, there exist a gap in achieving a required cybersecurity posture. This study recommends government organizations to establish a comprehensive cybersecurity program with emphasis on cybersecurity policy, risk management, and awareness and training. In addition, the research study has practical implications to both government and private organizations for implementing and managing cybersecurity.

Keywords: Awareness and training, cybersecurity, cybersecurity policy, risk management, security risks.

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Authors: E. Cenderelli, E. Bruno, G. Iacoviello, A. Lazzini

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The financial sector is exposed to the risk of cyber-attacks like any other industrial sector. Furthermore, the topic of CybeRisk (cyber risk) has become particularly relevant given that Information Technology (IT) attacks have increased drastically in recent years, and cannot be stopped by single organizations requiring a response at international and national level. IT risk is never a matter purely for the IT manager, although he clearly plays a key role. A bank's risk management function requires a thorough understanding of the evolving risks as well as the tools and practical techniques available to address them. Upon the request of European and national legislation regarding CybeRisk in the financial system, banks are therefore called upon to strengthen the operational model for CybeRisk management. This will require an important change with a more intense collaboration with the structures that deal with information security for the development of an ad hoc system for the evaluation and control of this type of risk. The aim of the work is to propose a framework for the management and control of CybeRisk that will bridge the gap in the literature regarding the understanding and consideration of CybeRisk as an integral part of business management. The IT function has a strong relevance in the management of CybeRisk, which is perceived mainly as operational risk, but with a positive tendency on the part of risk management to the identification of CybeRisk assessment methods that are increasingly complete, quantitative and able to better describe the possible impacts on the business. The paper provides answers to the research questions: Is it possible to define a CybeRisk governance structure able to support the comparison between risk and security? How can the relationships between IT assets be integrated into a cyberisk assessment framework to guarantee a system of protection and risks control? From a methodological point of view, this research uses a case study approach. The choice of “Monte dei Paschi di Siena” was determined by the specific features of one of Italy’s biggest lenders. It is chosen to use an intensive research strategy: an in-depth study of reality. The case study methodology is an empirical approach to explore a complex and current phenomenon that develops over time. The use of cases has also the advantage of allowing the deepening of aspects concerning the "how" and "why" of contemporary events, on which the scholar has little control. The research bases on quantitative data and qualitative information obtained through semi-structured interviews of an open-ended nature and questionnaires to directors, members of the audit committee, risk, IT and compliance managers, and those responsible for internal audit function and anti-money laundering. The added value of the paper can be seen in the development of a framework based on a mapping of IT assets from which it is possible to identify their relationships for purposes of a more effective management and control of cyber risk.

Keywords: Bank, CybeRisk, information technology, risk management.

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Authors: Anshu Manik, William G. Buttlar, Kasthurirangan Gopalakrishnan

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Over the years, there is a growing trend towards quality-based specifications in highway construction. In many Quality Control/Quality Assurance (QC/QA) specifications, the contractor is primarily responsible for quality control of the process, whereas the highway agency is responsible for testing the acceptance of the product. A cooperative investigation was conducted in Illinois over several years to develop a prototype End-Result Specification (ERS) for asphalt pavement construction. The final characteristics of the product are stipulated in the ERS and the contractor is given considerable freedom in achieving those characteristics. The risk for the contractor or agency depends on how the acceptance limits and processes are specified. Stochastic simulation models are very useful in estimating and analyzing payment risk in ERS systems and these form an integral part of the Illinois-s prototype ERS system. This paper describes the development of an innovative methodology to estimate the variability components in in-situ density, air voids and asphalt content data from ERS projects. The information gained from this would be crucial in simulating these ERS projects for estimation and analysis of payment risks associated with asphalt pavement construction. However, these methods require at least two parties to conduct tests on all the split samples obtained according to the sampling scheme prescribed in present ERS implemented in Illinois.

Keywords: Asphalt Pavement, Risk Analysis, StochasticSimulation, QC/QA.

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Authors: Guilan Huang

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In 2013 and 2014, the U.S. Food and Drug Administration (FDA) collected data from selected fast food restaurants and full service restaurants for tracking changes in the occurrence of foodborne illness risk factors. This paper discussed how we customized spatial random sampling method by considering financial position and availability of FDA resources, and how we enriched restaurants data with location. Location information of restaurants provides opportunity for quantitatively determining random sampling within non-government units (e.g.: 240 kilometers around each data-collector). Spatial analysis also could optimize data-collectors’ work plans and resource allocation. Spatial analytic and processing platform helped us handling the spatial random sampling challenges. Our method fits in FDA’s ability to pinpoint features of foodservice establishments, and reduced both time and expense on data collection.

Keywords: Geospatial technology, restaurant, retail food risk factors study, spatial random sampling.

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Authors: N. R. P Withana, E. Auch

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The purpose of this study was to investigate perceptions of climate change risk to forest ecosystems and forestbased communities as well as perceived effectiveness of adaptation strategies for climate change as well as challenges for adaptation. Data was gathered using a pre-tested semi-structured questionnaire. Simple random selection technique was applied. For the majority of issues, the responses were obtained on multi-point likert scales, and the scores provided were, in turn, used to estimate the means and other useful estimates. A composite knowledge index developed using correct responses to a set of self-rated statements were used to evaluate the issues. The mean of the knowledge index was 0.64. Also all respondents recorded values of the knowledge index above 0.25. Increase forest fire was perceived by respondents as the greatest risk to forest eco-system. Decrease access to water supplies was perceived as the greatest risk to livelihoods of forest based communities. The most effective adaptation strategy relevant to climate change risks to forest eco-systems and forest based communities livelihoods in Kathmandu valley in Nepal as perceived by the respondents was reforestation and afforestation. As well, lack of public awareness was perceived as the major limitation for climate change adaptation. However, perceived risks as well as effective adaptation strategies showed an inconsistent association with knowledge indicators and social-cultural variables. The results provide useful information to any party who involve with climate change issues in Nepal, since such attempts would be more effective once the people’s perceptions on these aspects are taken into account.

Keywords: Climate change, forest ecosystems, forest-based communities, risk perceptions.

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Authors: I. Yakubu, D. Mireku-Gyimah, D. Asafo-Adjei

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The challenge for everyone involved in preserving the ecosystem is to find creative ways to protect and restore the remaining ecosystems while accommodating and enhancing the country social and economic well-being. Frequent fires of anthropogenic origin have been affecting the ecosystems in many countries adversely. Hence adopting ways of decision making such as Multicriteria Decision Making (MCDM) is appropriate since it will enhance the evaluation and analysis of fire risk and hazard of the ecosystem. In this paper, fire risk and hazard data from the West Gonja area of Ghana were used in some of the methods (Analytical Hierarchy Process, Compromise Programming, and Grey Relational Analysis (GRA) for MCDM evaluation and analysis to determine the optimal weight method for fire risk and hazard. Ranking of the land cover types was carried out using; Fire Hazard, Fire Fighting Capacity and Response Risk Criteria. Pairwise comparison under Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) was used to determine the weight of the various criteria. Weights for sub-criteria were also obtained by the pairwise comparison method. The results were optimised using GRA and Compromise Programming (CP). The results from each method, hybrid GRA and CP, were compared and it was established that all methods were satisfactory in terms of optimisation of weight. The most optimal method for spatial multicriteria evaluation was the hybrid GRA method. Thus, a hybrid AHP and GRA method is more effective method for ranking alternatives in MCDM than the hybrid AHP and CP method.

Keywords: Compromise programming, grey relational analysis, spatial multi-criteria, weight optimisation.

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Authors: T. Motsima

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The under-5 mortality rate is high in sub-Saharan Africa with Lesotho being amongst the highest under-5 mortality rates in the world. The objective of the study is to determine the factors associated with under-5 mortality in Lesotho. The data used for this analysis come from the nationally representative household survey called the 2009 Lesotho Demographic and Health Survey. Odds ratios produced by the logistic regression models were used to measure the effect of each independent variable on the dependent variable. Female children were significantly 38% less likely to die than male children. Children who were breastfed for 13 to 18 months and those who were breastfed for more than 19 months were significantly less likely to die than those who were breastfed for 12 months or less. Furthermore, children of mothers who stayed in Quthing, Qacha’s Nek and Thaba Tseka ran the greatest risk of dying. The results suggested that: sex of child, type of birth, breastfeeding duration, district, source of energy and marital status were significant predictors of under-5 mortality, after correcting for all variables.

Keywords: Under-5 mortality, risk factors, millennium development goals, breastfeeding, logistic regression.

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Authors: Haluk Eren, Ümit Çelik

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Recent developments in unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs) have begun to attract intense interest. UAVs started to use for many different applications from military to civilian use. Some online retailer and logistics companies are testing the UAV delivery. UAVs have great potentials to reduce cost and time of deliveries and responding to emergencies in a short time. Despite these great positive sides, just a few works have been done for routing of UAVs for package deliveries. As known, transportation of goods from one place to another may have many hazards on delivery route due to falling hazards that can be exemplified as ground objects or air obstacles. This situation refers to wide-range insurance concept. For this reason, deliveries that are made with drones get into the scope of shipping insurance. On the other hand, air traffic was taken into account in the absence of unmanned aerial vehicle. But now, it has been a reality for aerial fields. In this study, the main goal is to conduct risk analysis of package delivery services using drone, based on delivery routes.

Keywords: Drone risk assessment, drone package delivery.

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Authors: Tamara Kelly

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The past decade has witnessed a good opportunities for city development schemes in UK. The government encouraged restoration of city centers to comprise mixed use developments with high density residential apartments. Investments in regeneration areas were doing well according to the analyses of Property Databank (IPD). However, more recent analysis by IPD has shown that since 2007, property in regeneration areas has been more vulnerable to the market downturn than other types of investment property. The early stages of a property market downturn may be felt most in regeneration where funding, investor confidence and occupier demand would dissipate because the sector was considered more marginal or risky when development costs rise. Moreover, the Bank of England survey shows that lenders have sequentially tightened the availability of credit for commercial real estate since mid-2007. A sharp reduction in the willingness of banks to lend on commercial property was recorded. The credit crunch has already affected commercial property but its impact has been particularly severe in certain kinds of properties where residential developments are extremely difficult, in particular city centre apartments and buy-to-let markets. Commercial property – retail, industrial leisure and mixed use were also pressed, in Birmingham; tens of mixed use plots were built to replace old factories in the heart of the city. The purpose of these developments was to enable young professionals to work and live in same place. Thousands of people lost their jobs during the recession, moreover lending was more difficult and the future of many developments is unknown. The recession casts its shadow upon the society due to cuts in public spending by government, Inflation, rising tuition fees and high rise in unemployment generated anger and hatred was spreading among youth causing vandalism and riots in many cities. Recent riots targeted many mixed used development in the UK where banks, shops, restaurants and big stores were robbed and set into fire leaving residents with horror and shock. This paper examines the impact of the recession and riots on mixed use development in UK.

Keywords: Diversity, mixed use development, outdoor comfort, public realm, safe places, safety by design.

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Authors: C. Recommandé, J.C. Blind, A. Clavel, R. Gourichon, V. Le Gal

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Simulations are developed in this paper with usual DSGE model equations. The model is based on simplified version of Smets-Wouters equations in use at European Central Bank which implies 10 macro-economic variables: consumption, investment, wages, inflation, capital stock, interest rates, production, capital accumulation, labour and credit rate, and allows take into consideration the banking system. Throughout the simulations, this model will be used to evaluate the impact of rate shocks recounting the actions of the European Central Bank during 2008.

Keywords: CC-LM, Central Bank, DSGE, Liquidity Shock, Non-standard Intervention.

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Authors: Hala A. Alrumaih

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It is widely believed that mobile device is a promising technology for lending the opportunity for the third wave of electronic commerce. Mobile devices have changed the way companies do business. Many applications are under development or being incorporated into business processes. In this day, mobile applications are a vital component of any industry strategy.One of the greatest benefits of selling merchandise and providing services on a mobile application is that it widens a company’s customer base significantly.Mobile applications are accessible to interested customers across regional and international borders in different electronic business (e-business) area. But there is a dark side to this success story. The security risks associated with mobile devices and applications are very significant. This paper introduces a broad risk analysis for the various threats, vulnerabilities, and risks in mobile e-business applications and presents some important risk mitigation approaches. It reviews and compares two different frameworks for security assurance in mobile e-business applications. Based on the comparison, the paper suggests some recommendations for applications developers and business owners in mobile e-business application development process.

Keywords: E-business, Mobile Applications, Risk mitigations, Security assurance.

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Authors: Narayanan Sambu Potty , Mohammad Kabir B. Mohd Akram

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Structural Integrity Management (SIM) is important for the protection of offshore crew, environment, business assets and company and industry reputation. API RP 2A contained guidelines for assessment of existing platforms mostly for the Gulf of Mexico (GOM). ISO 19902 SIM framework also does not specifically cater for Malaysia. There are about 200 platforms in Malaysia with 90 exceeding their design life. The Petronas Carigali Sdn Bhd (PCSB) uses the Asset Integrity Management System and the very subjective Risk based Inspection Program for these platforms. Petronas currently doesn-t have a standalone Petronas Technical Standard PTS-SIM. This study proposes a recommended practice for the SIM process for offshore structures in Malaysia, including studies by API and ISO and local elements such as the number of platforms, types of facilities, age and risk ranking. Case study on SMG-A platform in Sabah shows missing or scattered platform data and a gap in inspection history. It is to undergo a level 3 underwater inspection in year 2015.

Keywords: platform, assessment, integrity, risk based inspection.

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Authors: Amir Hossein Ghaffari Nejad, Forouhar Ferdowsi, Reza Mashhadi

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In the interest-free banking system of Iran, the savings of society are in the form of bank deposits, and banks using the Islamic contracts, allocate the resources to applicants for obtaining facilities and credit. In the meantime, the central bank, with the aim of introducing monetary policy, determines the maximum interest rate on bank deposits in terms of macroeconomic requirements. But in recent years, the country's economic constraints with the stagflation and the consequence of the institutional weaknesses of the financial market of Iran have resulted in massive disturbances in the balance sheet of the banking system, resulting in a period of mismatch maturity in the banks' assets and liabilities and the implementation of a Ponzi game. This issue caused determination of the interest rate in long-term bank deposit contracts to be associated with non-observance of the maximum rate set by the central bank. The result of this condition was in the allocation of new sources of equipment to meet past commitments towards the old depositors and, as a result, a significant part of the supply of equipment was leaked out of the facilitating cycle and credit crunch emerged. The purpose of this study is to identify the most important factors affecting the occurrence of non-confirmatory financial banking behavior using data from 19 public and private banks of Iran. For this purpose, the causes of this non-confirmatory behavior of banks have been investigated using the panel vector autoregression method (PVAR) for the period of 2007-2015. Granger's causality test results suggest that the return of parallel markets for bank deposits, non-performing loans and the high share of the ratio of facilities to banks' deposits are all a cause of the formation of non-confirmatory behavior. Also, according to the results of impulse response functions and variance decomposition, NPL and the ratio of facilities to deposits have the highest long-term effect and also have a high contribution to explaining the changes in banks' non-confirmatory behavior in determining the interest rate on deposits.

Keywords: Non-conformity behavior, Ponzi game, panel vector autoregression, nonperforming loans.

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Authors: M. Stoklasa, H. Starzyczna, P. Sykorova

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This paper presents partial results of primary research on consumer purchasing behavior in times of crisis. It starts with brief theoretical debate on purchasing behavior and short secondary research related to the issues, which is used for the comparison of results. For purpose of collecting data, questionnaire survey was given to 355 respondents in Moravian-Silesian region. Hypotheses deal with the relationship of the financial situation of the respondents and their purchasing behavior. The research analysis disclosed that consumers change their behavior during crisis and MS region has some specifics compared to other regions.

Keywords: Crisis, financial situation, consumer behavior, postponement of purchases, consumer credit.

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Authors: Marjan Mahdavi-Roshan, Arsalan Salari, Mahboobeh Gholipour, Moona Naghshbandi

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Background and objectives: Before any nutritional intervention, it is necessary to have the prospect of eating habits of people with cardiovascular risk factors. In this study, we assessed the adherence of healthy diet based on Mediterranean dietary pattern and related factors in adults in the north of Iran. Methods: This study was conducted on 550 men and women with cardiovascular risk factors that referred to Heshmat hospital in Rasht, northern Iran. Information was collected by interview and reading medical history and measuring anthropometric indexes. The Mediterranean Diet Adherence Screener was used for assessing dietary adherence, this screener was modified according to religious beliefs and culture of Iran. Results: The mean age of participants was 58±0.38 years. The mean of body mass index was 27±0.01 kg/m², and the mean of waist circumference was 98±0.2 cm. The mean of dietary adherence was 5.76±0.07. 45% of participants had low adherence, and just 4% had suitable adherence. The mean of dietary adherence in men was significantly higher than women (p=0. 07). Participants in rural area and high educational participants insignificantly had an unsuitable dietary Adherence. There was no significant association between some cardiovascular disease risk factors and dietary adherence. Conclusion: Education to different group about dietary intake correction and using a Mediterranean dietary pattern that is similar to dietary intake in the north of Iran, for controlling cardiovascular disease is necessary.

Keywords: Dietary adherence, Mediterranean dietary pattern, cardiovascular disease, north of Iran.

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Authors: F. Gökgöz, M. E. Atmaca

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Electricity plays an indispensable role in human life and the economy. It is a unique product or service that must be balanced instantaneously, as electricity is not stored, generation and consumption should be proportional. Effective and efficient use of electricity is very important not only for society, but also for the environment. A competitive electricity market is one of the best ways to provide a suitable platform for effective and efficient use of electricity. On the other hand, it carries some risks that should be carefully managed by the market players. Risk management is an essential part in market players’ decision making. In this paper, risk management through diversification is applied with the help of Markowitz’s Mean-variance, Down-side and Semi-variance methods for a case study. Performance of optimal electricity sale solutions are measured and evaluated via Sharpe-Ratio, and the optimal portfolio solutions are improved. Two years of historical weekdays’ price data of the Turkish Day Ahead Market are used to demonstrate the approach.

Keywords: Electricity market, portfolio optimization, risk management in electricity market, Sharpe ratio.

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Authors: C. Caçador, M. J. Reis Lima, J. Oliveira, M. J. Veiga, M. Teixeira Veríssimo, F. Ramos, M. C. Castilho, E. Teixeira-Lemos

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In the present study we evaluated the nutritional status of 214 institutionalized elderly residents of both genders, aged 65 years and older of 11 care homes located in the district of Viseu (center of Portugal). The evaluation was based on anthropometric measurements and the Mini Nutritional Assessment (MNA) score.

The mean age of the subjects was 82.3 ± 6.1 years-old. Most of the elderly residents were female (72.0%). The majority had 4 years of formal education (51.9%) and was widowed (74.3%) or married (14.0%).

Men presented a mean age of 81.2±8.5 years-old, weight 69.3±14.5 kg and BMI 25.33±6.5 kg/m². In women, the mean age was 84.5±8.2 years-old, weight 61.2±14.7 kg and BMI 27.43±5.6 kg/m².

The evaluation of the nutritional status using the MNA score showed that 24.0% of the residents show a risk of undernutrition and 76.0% of them were well nourished.

There was a high prevalence of obese (24.8%) and overweight residents (33.2%) according to the BMI. 7.5% were considered underweight.

We also found that according to their waist circumference measurements 88.3% of the residents were at risk for cardiovascular disease (CVD) and 64.0% of them presented very high risk for CVD (WC≥88 cm for women and WC ≥102 cm for men).

The present study revealed the coexistence of a dual form of malnutrition (undernourished and overweight) among the institutionalized Portuguese concomitantly with an excess of abdominal adiposity. The high prevalence of residents at high risk for CVD should not be overlooked.

Given the vulnerability of the group of institutionalized elderly, our study highlights the importance of the classification of nutritional status based on both instruments: the BMI and the MNA.

Keywords: Nutritional status, MNA, BMI, elderly.

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Authors: Jin-Tae Lee, Jung-Hoon Suh, Sang-Soo Jang, Jae-Il Lee

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Information and communication service providers (ICSP) that are significant in size and provide Internet-based services take administrative, technical, and physical protection measures via the information security check service (ISCS). These protection measures are the minimum action necessary to secure the stability and continuity of the information and communication services (ICS) that they provide. Thus, information assets are essential to providing ICS, and deciding the relative importance of target assets for protection is a critical procedure. The risk analysis model designed to decide the relative importance of information assets, which is described in this study, evaluates information assets from many angles, in order to choose which ones should be given priority when it comes to protection. Many-sided risk analysis (MSRS) grades the importance of information assets, based on evaluation of major security check items, evaluation of the dependency on the information and communication facility (ICF) and influence on potential incidents, and evaluation of major items according to their service classification, in order to identify the ISCS target. MSRS could be an efficient risk analysis model to help ICSPs to identify their core information assets and take information protection measures first, so that stability of the ICS can be ensured.

Keywords: Information Asset, Information CommunicationFacility, Evaluation, ISCS (Information Security Check Service), Evaluation, Grade.

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Authors: V. Sulakatko, F. U. Vogdt, I. Lill

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Construction technology and on-site construction activities have a direct influence on the life cycle costs of energy efficiently renovated apartment buildings. The systematic inadequacies of the External Thermal Insulation Composite System (ETICS) which occur during the construction phase increase the risk for all stakeholders, reduce mechanical durability and increase the life cycle costs of the building. The economic effect of these shortcomings can be minimised if the risk of the most significant on-site activities is recognised. The objective of the presented ETICS economic assessment concept is to evaluate the economic influence of on-site shortcomings and reveal their significance to the foreseeable future repair costs. The model assembles repair techniques, discusses their direct cost calculation methods, argues over the proper usage of net present value over the life cycle of the building, and proposes a simulation tool to evaluate the risk of on-site activities. As the technique is dependent on the selected real interest rate, a sensitivity analysis is anticipated to determine the validity of the recommendations. After the verification of the model on the sample buildings by the industry, it is expected to increase economic rationality of resource allocation and reduce high-risk systematic shortcomings during the construction process of ETICS.

Keywords: Activity-based cost estimating, Cost estimation, ETICS, Life cycle costing.

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Authors: Zeinep A. Berkimbayeva, Almagul T. Mansharipova, Elmira M. Khussainova, Leyla B. Djansugurova

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It is believed that DNA damaging toxic metabolites contributes to the development of different pathological conditions. To prevent harmful influence of toxic agents, cells developed number of protecting mechanisms, such as enzymatic reaction of detoxification of reactive metabolites and repair of DNA damage. The aim of the study was to examine the association between polymorphism of GSTT1/GSTM1 and XRCC1/3 genes and coronary artery disease (CAD) incidence. To examine a polymorphism of these genes in CAD susceptibility in patients and controls, PCR based genotyping assay was performed. For GST genes, frequency of GSTM1 null genotype among CAD affected group was significantly increased than in control group (P<0.001). Frequencies of the GSTT1 null and positive alleles are almost equal in both groups (P>0.1). We found that neither XRCC1 Arg399Gln nor XRCC3 Thr241Met were associated with CAD risk. Obtained data suggests that GSTM1 null genotype carriers are more susceptible to CAD development.

Keywords: Cardiovascular disease, DNA reparation, gene polymorphism, risk factors, xenobiotic detoxification.

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Authors: Katleho D. Makatjane, Kalebe M. Kalebe

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The present paper used time-varying parameters which are based on the score function of a probability density at time t to model volatility of saving rate. We used a scaled likelihood function to update the parameters of the model overtime. Our results revealed high diligence of time-varying since the location parameter is greater than zero. Furthermore, we discovered a leptokurtic condition on saving rate’s distribution. Kapetanios, Shin-Shell Nonlinear Augmented Dickey-Fuller (KSS-NADF) test showed that the saving rate has a nonlinear unit root; therefore, it can be modeled by a generalised autoregressive score (GAS) model. Additionally, value at risk (VaR) and conditional tail expectation (CTE) indicate that 99% of the time people in Lesotho are saving more than spending. This puts the economy in high risk of not expanding. Therefore, the monetary policy committee (MPC) of Lesotho should revise their monetary policies towards this high saving rates risk.

Keywords: Generalized autoregressive score, time-varying, saving rate, Lesotho.

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Authors: H. B. Nguendo Yongsi, Thora M. Herrmann, A. Lutumba Ntetu, Rémy Sietchiping, Christopher Bryant

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Health problems linked to urban growth are current major concerns of developing countries. In 2002 and 2005, an interdisciplinary program “Populations et Espaces ├á Risques SANitaires" (PERSAN) was set up under the patronage of the Development and Research Institute. Centered on health in Cameroon-s urban environment, the program mainly sought to (i) identify diarrhoea risk factors in Yaoundé, (ii) to measure their prevalence and apprehend their spatial distribution. The crosssectional epidemiological study that was carried out revealed a diarrheic prevalence of 14.4% (437 cases of diarrhoea on the 3,034 children examined). Also, among risk factors studied, household refuse management methods used by city dwellers were statistically associated to these diarrhoeas. Moreover, it happened that levels of diarrhoeal attacks varied consistently from one neighbourhood to another because of the discrepancy urbanization process of the Yaoundé metropolis.

Keywords: Diarrhea, health risk, household refuses handling, sanitation, Yaoundé.

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Authors: George Yungchih Wang

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This paper argues that increased uncertainty, in certain situations, may actually encourage investment. Since earlier studies mostly base their arguments on the assumption of geometric Brownian motion, the study extends the assumption to alternative stochastic processes, such as mixed diffusion-jump, mean-reverting process, and jump amplitude process. A general approach of Monte Carlo simulation is developed to derive optimal investment trigger for the situation that the closed-form solution could not be readily obtained under the assumption of alternative process. The main finding is that the overall effect of uncertainty on investment is interpreted by the probability of investing, and the relationship appears to be an invested U-shaped curve between uncertainty and investment. The implication is that uncertainty does not always discourage investment even under several sources of uncertainty. Furthermore, high-risk projects are not always dominated by low-risk projects because the high-risk projects may have a positive realization effect on encouraging investment.

Keywords: real options, geometric Brownian motion, mixeddiffusion-jump process, mean- reverting process, jump amplitudeprocess

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Authors: J. K. Visser, H. T. Malan

Abstract:

A need exists to identify the sources of risks associated with the process automation systems within petrochemical companies or similar energy related industries. These companies use many different process automation technologies in its value chain. A crucial part of the process automation system is the information technology component featuring in the supervisory control layer. The ever-changing technology within the process automation layers and the rate at which it advances pose a risk to safe and predictable automation system performance. The age of the automation equipment also provides challenges to the operations and maintenance managers of the plant due to obsolescence and unavailability of spare parts. The main objective of this research was to determine the risk sources associated with the equipment that is part of the process automation systems. A secondary objective was to establish whether technology managers and technicians were aware of the risks and share the same viewpoint on the importance of the risks associated with automation systems. A conceptual model for risk sources of automation systems was formulated from models and frameworks in literature. This model comprised six categories of risk which forms the basis for identifying specific risks. This model was used to develop a questionnaire that was sent to 172 instrument technicians and technology managers in the company to obtain primary data. 75 completed and useful responses were received. These responses were analyzed statistically to determine the highest risk sources and to determine whether there was difference in opinion between technology managers and technicians. The most important risks that were revealed in this study are: 1) the lack of skilled technicians, 2) integration capability of third-party system software, 3) reliability of the process automation hardware, 4) excessive costs pertaining to performing maintenance and migrations on process automation systems, and 5) requirements of having third-party communication interfacing compatibility as well as real-time communication networks.

Keywords: Distributed control system, identification of risks, information technology, process automation system.

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Authors: M. Pisol B Mat Isa, Asmak Ab Rahman, Hezlina Bt M Hashim, Abd Mutalib B Embong

Abstract:

Al-Murabahah is an Islamic financing facility used in asset financing, the profit rate of the contract is determined by components which are also being used in the conventional banking. Such are cost of fund, overhead cost, risk premium cost and bank-s profit margin. At the same time, the profit rate determined by Islamic banking system also refers to Inter-Bank Offered Rate (LIBOR) in London as a benchmark. This practice has risen arguments among Muslim scholars in term of its validity of the contract; whether the contract maintains the Shariah compliance or not. This paper aims to explore the view of Shariah towards the above components practiced by Islamic Banking in determining the profit rate of al-murabahah asset financing in Malaysia. This is a comparative research which applied the views of Muslim scholars from all major mazahibs in Islamic jurisprudence and examined the practices by Islamic banks in Malaysia for the above components. The study found that the shariah accepts all the components with conditions. The cost of fund is accepted as a portion of al-mudarabah-s profit, the overhead cost is accepted as a cost of product, risk premium cost consist of business risk and mitigation risk are accepted through the concept of alta-awun and bank-s profit margin is accepted as a right of bank after venturing in risky investment.

Keywords: Islamic banking, Islamic finance, al-murabahah and asset financing

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Authors: A. K. Pathak, K. Ojha

Abstract:

Methane is the second most important greenhouse gas (GHG) after carbon dioxide. Amount of methane emission from energy sector is increasing day by day with various activities. In present work, various sources of methane emission from upstream, middle stream and downstream of oil & gas sectors are identified and categorised as per IPCC-2006 guidelines. Data were collected from various oil & gas sector like (i) exploration & production of oil & gas (ii) supply through pipelines (iii) refinery throughput & production (iv) storage & transportation (v) usage. Methane emission factors for various categories were determined applying Tier-II and Tier-I approach using the collected data. Total methane emission from Indian Oil & Gas sectors was thus estimated for the year 1990 to 2007.

Keywords: Carbon credit, Climate change, Methane emission, Oil & Gas production

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Authors: Michael Ajide Oyinloye

Abstract:

Generally the natural environment is made up of air, water and soil. The release of emission of industrial waste into anyone of the components of the environment causes pollution. Industrial pollution significantly threatens the inherent right of people, to the enjoyment of a safe and secure environment. The aim of this paper is to assess the effect of environmental pollution and health risks of residents living near Ewekoro cement factory. The research made use of IKONOS imagery for Geographical Information System (GIS) to buffer and extract buildings that are less than 1km to the factory, within 1km to 5km and above 5km to the factory. Also questionnaire was used to elicit information on the socio-economic factors, effect of environmental pollution on residents and measures adopted to control industrial pollution on the residents. Findings show that most buildings that fall between less than 1km and 1km to 5km to the factory have high health risk in the study area. The study recommended total relocation for the residents of the study area to reduce health risk problems.

Keywords: Environmental pollution, Ewekoro, GIS, Health risk, Satellite imagery.

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Authors: Nael Y. Zabel, Maged E. Georgy, Moheeb E. Ibrahim

Abstract:

A knowledge-based expert system with the acronym RASPE is developed as an application tool to help decision makers in construction companies make informed decisions about managing risks in pipeline construction projects. Choosing to use expert systems from all available artificial intelligence techniques is due to the fact that an expert system is more suited to representing a domain’s knowledge and the reasoning behind domain-specific decisions. The knowledge-based expert system can capture the knowledge in the form of conditional rules which represent various project scenarios and potential risk mitigation/response actions. The built knowledge in RASPE is utilized through the underlying inference engine that allows the firing of rules relevant to a project scenario into consideration. Paper provides an overview of the knowledge acquisition process and goes about describing the knowledge structure which is divided up into four major modules. The paper shows one module in full detail for illustration purposes and concludes with insightful remarks.

Keywords: Expert System, Knowledge Management, Pipeline Projects, Risk Mismanagement.

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Authors: Danielle Sandler dos Passos, Helder Coelho, Flávia Mori Sarti

Abstract:

Analysing the world banking sector, we realize that traditional risk measurement methodologies no longer reflect the actual scenario with uncertainty and leave out events that can change the dynamics of markets. Considering this, regulators and financial institutions began to search more realistic models. The aim is to include external influences and interdependencies between agents, to describe and measure the operationalization of these complex systems and their risks in a more coherent and credible way. Within this context, X-Events are more frequent than assumed and, with uncertainties and constant changes, the concept of antifragility starts to gain great prominence in comparison to others methodologies of risk management. It is very useful to analyse whether a system succumbs (fragile), resists (robust) or gets benefits (antifragile) from disorder and stress. Thus, this work proposes the creation of the Banking Antifragility Index (BAI), which is based on the calculation of a triangular fuzzy number – to "quantify" qualitative criteria linked to antifragility.

Keywords: Complex adaptive systems, X-events, risk management, antifragility, banking antifragility index, triangular fuzzy number.

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