Search results for: jitter; good linearity

Authors: Iryna Atamaniuk, Hannah Boysen, Nils Wieczorek, Natalia Politaeva, Iuliia Bazarnova, Kerstin Kuchta

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Over the last decade due to climate change and a strategy of natural resources preservation, the interest for the aquatic biomass has dramatically increased. Along with mitigation of the environmental pressure and connection of waste streams (including CO₂ and heat emissions), microalgae bioeconomy can supply food, feed, as well as the pharmaceutical and power industry with number of value-added products. Furthermore, in comparison to conventional biomass, microalgae can be cultivated in wide range of conditions without compromising food and feed production, thus addressing issues associated with negative social and the environmental impacts. This paper presents the state-of-the art technology for microalgae bioeconomy from cultivation process to production of valuable components and by-streams. Microalgae Chlorella sorokiniana were cultivated in the pilot-scale innovation concept in Hamburg (Germany) using different systems such as race way pond (5000 L) and flat panel reactors (8 x 180 L). In order to achieve the optimum growth conditions along with suitable cellular composition for the further extraction of the value-added components, process parameters such as light intensity, temperature and pH are continuously being monitored. On the other hand, metabolic needs in nutrients were provided by addition of micro- and macro-nutrients into a medium to ensure autotrophic growth conditions of microalgae. The cultivation was further followed by downstream process and extraction of lipids, proteins and saccharides. Lipids extraction is conducted in repeated-batch semi-automatic mode using hot extraction method according to Randall. As solvents hexane and ethanol are used at different ratio of 9:1 and 1:9, respectively. Depending on cell disruption method along with solvents ratio, the total lipids content showed significant variations between 8.1% and 13.9 %. The highest percentage of extracted biomass was reached with a sample pretreated with microwave digestion using 90% of hexane and 10% of ethanol as solvents. Proteins content in microalgae was determined by two different methods, namely: Total Kejadahl Nitrogen (TKN), which further was converted to protein content, as well as Bradford method using Brilliant Blue G-250 dye. Obtained results, showed a good correlation between both methods with protein content being in the range of 39.8–47.1%. Characterization of neutral and acid saccharides from microalgae was conducted by phenol-sulfuric acid method at two wavelengths of 480 nm and 490 nm. The average concentration of neutral and acid saccharides under the optimal cultivation conditions was 19.5% and 26.1%, respectively. Subsequently, biomass residues are used as substrate for anaerobic digestion on the laboratory-scale. The methane concentration, which was measured on the daily bases, showed some variations for different samples after extraction steps but was in the range between 48% and 55%. CO₂ which is formed during the fermentation process and after the combustion in the Combined Heat and Power unit can potentially be used within the cultivation process as a carbon source for the photoautotrophic synthesis of biomass.

Keywords: Bioeconomy, lipids, microalgae, proteins, saccharides.

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Authors: Larysa Novak-Kalyayeva, Aleksander Kuczabski, Orystlava Sydorchuk, Nataliia Fersman, Tatyana Zemlinskaia

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The article presents the results of the creative analysis and comparison of trends in the development of the theory of public administration during the period from the second half of the 20^th to the beginning of the 21^st century. The process of conceptualization of the priorities of public administration in the dynamics of reforming was held under the influence of such factors as globalization, integration, information and technological changes and human rights is examined. The priorities of the social state in the concepts of the second half of the 20^th century are studied. Peculiar approaches to determining the priorities of public administration in the countries of "Soviet dictatorship" in Central and Eastern Europe in the same period are outlined. Particular attention is paid to the priorities of public administration regarding the interaction between public power and society and the development of conceptual foundations for the modern managerial process. There is a thought that the dynamics of the formation of concepts of the European governance is characterized by the sequence of priorities: from socio-economic and moral-ethical to organizational-procedural and non-hierarchical ones. The priorities of the "welfare state" were focused on the decent level of material wellbeing of population. At the same time, the conception of "minimal state" emphasized priorities of human responsibility for their own fate under the conditions of minimal state protection. Later on, the emphasis was placed on horizontal ties and redistribution of powers and competences of "effective state" with its developed procedures and limits of responsibility at all levels of government and in close cooperation with the civil society. The priorities of the contemporary period are concentrated on human rights in the concepts of "good governance" and all the following ones, which recognize the absolute priority of public administration with compliance, provision and protection of human rights. There is a proved point of view that civilizational changes taking place under the influence of information and technological imperatives also stipulate changes in priorities, redistribution of emphases and update principles of managerial concepts on the basis of publicity, transparency, departure from traditional forms of hierarchy and control in favor of interactivity and inter-sectoral interaction, decentralization and humanization of managerial processes. The necessity to permanently carry out the reorganization, by establishing the interaction between different participants of public power and social relations, to establish a balance between political forces and social interests on the basis of mutual trust and mutual understanding determines changes of social, political, economic and humanitarian paradigms of public administration and their theoretical comprehension. The further studies of theoretical foundations of modern public administration in interdisciplinary discourse in the context of ambiguous consequences of the globalizational and integrational processes of modern European state-building would be advisable. This is especially true during the period of political transformations and economic crises which are the characteristic of the contemporary Europe, especially for democratic transition countries.

Keywords: Concepts of public administration, democratic transition countries, human rights, the priorities of public administration, theory of public administration.

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Authors: M. Shiva Prasad, S. R. Atchuta, T. Vijayaraghavan, S. Sakthivel

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The world is in need of efficient energy conversion technologies which are affordable, accessible, and sustainable with eco-friendly nature. Solar energy is one of the cornerstones for the world’s economic growth because of its abundancy with zero carbon pollution. Among the various solar energy conversion technologies, solar thermal technology has attracted a substantial renewed interest due to its diversity and compatibility in various applications. Solar thermal systems employ concentrators, tracking systems and heat engines for electricity generation which lead to high cost and complexity in comparison with photovoltaics; however, it is compatible with distinct thermal energy storage capability and dispatchable electricity which creates a tremendous attraction. Apart from that, employing cost-effective solar selective receiver tube in a concentrating solar thermal (CST) system improves the energy conversion efficiency and directly reduces the cost of technology. In addition, the development of solar receiver tubes by low cost methods which can offer high optical properties and corrosion resistance in an open-air atmosphere would be beneficial for low and medium temperature applications. In this regard, our work opens up an approach which has the potential to achieve cost-effective energy conversion. We have developed a highly selective tandem absorber coating through a facile wet chemical route by a combination of chemical oxidation, sol-gel, and nanoparticle coating methods. The developed tandem absorber coating has gradient refractive index nature on stainless steel (SS 304) and exhibited high optical properties (α ≤ 0.95 & ε ≤ 0.14). The first absorber layer (Cr-Mn-Fe oxides) developed by controlled oxidation of SS 304 in a chemical bath reactor. A second composite layer of ZrO₂-SiO₂ has been applied on the chemically oxidized substrate by So-gel dip coating method to serve as optical enhancing and corrosion resistant layer. Finally, an antireflective layer (MgF₂) has been deposited on the second layer, to achieve > 95% of absorption. The developed tandem layer exhibited good thermal stability up to 250 °C in open air atmospheric condition and superior corrosion resistance (withstands for > 200h in salt spray test (ASTM B117)). After the successful development of a coating with targeted properties at a laboratory scale, a prototype of the 1 m tube has been demonstrated with excellent uniformity and reproducibility. Moreover, it has been validated under standard laboratory test condition as well as in field condition with a comparison of the commercial receiver tube. The presented strategy can be widely adapted to develop highly selective coatings for a variety of CST applications ranging from hot water, solar desalination, and industrial process heat and power generation. The high-performance, cost-effective medium temperature receiver tube technology has attracted many industries, and recently the technology has been transferred to Indian industry.

Keywords: Concentrated solar thermal system, solar selective coating, tandem absorber, ultralow refractive index.

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Authors: Sandhya Rijal, Saroj Adhikari, Ramesh R. Pant

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Non-Timber Forest Products (NTFPs) have attracted substantial interest in the recent years with the increasing recognition that these can provide essential community needs for improved and diversified rural livelihood and support the objectives of biodiversity conservation. Nevertheless, various challenges are witnessed in their sustainable harvest and management. Assuming that sustainable management with community stewardship can offer one of the solutions to existing challenges, the study assesses the linkages between NTFPs and rural livelihood in Lamabagar village of Dolakha, Nepal. The major objective was to document the status of NTFPs and their contributions in households of Lamabagar. For status documentation, vegetation sampling was done using systematic random sampling technique. 30 plots of 10 m × 10 m were laid down in six parallel transect lines at horizontal distance of 160 m in two different community forests. A structured questionnaire survey was conducted in 76 households (excluding non-response rate) using stratified random sampling technique for contribution analysis. Likewise, key informant interview and focus group discussions were also conducted for data triangulations. 36 different NTFPs were recorded from the vegetation sample in two community forests of which 50% were used for medicinal purposes. The other uses include fodder, religious value, and edible fruits and vegetables. Species like Juniperus indica, Daphne bholua Aconitum spicatum, and Lyonia ovalifolia were frequently used for trade as a source of income, which was sold in local market. The protected species like Taxus wallichiana and Neopicrorhiza scrophulariiflora were also recorded in the area for which the trade is prohibited. The protection of these species urgently needs community stewardship. More than half of the surveyed households (55%) were depending on NTFPs for their daily uses, other than economic purpose whereas 45% of them sold those products in the market directly or in the form of local handmade products as a source of livelihood. NTFPs were the major source of primary health curing agents especially for the poor and unemployed people in the study area. Hence, the NTFPs contributed to livelihood under three different categories: subsistence, supplement income and emergency support, depending upon the economic status of the households. Although the status of forest improved after handover to the user group, the availability of valuable medicinal herbs like Rhododendron anthopogon, Swertia nervosa, Neopicrorhiza scrophulariiflora, and Aconitum spicatum were declining. Inadequacy of technology, lack of easy transport access, and absence of good market facility were the major limitations for external trade of NTFPs in the study site. It was observed that people were interested towards conservation only if they could get some returns: economic in terms of rural settlements. Thus, the study concludes that NTFPs could contribute rural livelihood and support conservation objectives only if local communities are provided with the easy access of technology, market and capital.

Keywords: Contribution, medicinal, subsistence, sustainable harvest.

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Authors: C. Virgilio, J. Carlier, P. Campistron, M. Toubal, P. Garnier, L. Broussous, V. Thomy, B. Nongaillard

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Wetting efficiency of microstructures or nanostructures patterned on Si wafers is a real challenge in integrated circuits manufacturing. In fact, bad or non-uniform wetting during wet processes limits chemical reactions and can lead to non-complete etching or cleaning inside the patterns and device defectivity. This issue is more and more important with the transistors size shrinkage and concerns mainly high aspect ratio structures. Deep Trench Isolation (DTI) structures enabling pixels’ isolation in imaging devices are subject to this phenomenon. While low-frequency acoustic reflectometry principle is a well-known method for Non Destructive Test applications, we have recently shown that it is also well suited for nanostructures wetting characterization in a higher frequency range. In this paper, we present a high-frequency acoustic reflectometry characterization of DTI wetting through a confrontation of both experimental and modeling results. The acoustic method proposed is based on the evaluation of the reflection of a longitudinal acoustic wave generated by a 100 µm diameter ZnO piezoelectric transducer sputtered on the silicon wafer backside using MEMS technologies. The transducers have been fabricated to work at 5 GHz corresponding to a wavelength of 1.7 µm in silicon. The DTI studied structures, manufactured on the wafer frontside, are crossing trenches of 200 nm wide and 4 µm deep (aspect ratio of 20) etched into a Si wafer frontside. In that case, the acoustic signal reflection occurs at the bottom and at the top of the DTI enabling its characterization by monitoring the electrical reflection coefficient of the transducer. A Finite Difference Time Domain (FDTD) model has been developed to predict the behavior of the emitted wave. The model shows that the separation of the reflected echoes (top and bottom of the DTI) from different acoustic modes is possible at 5 Ghz. A good correspondence between experimental and theoretical signals is observed. The model enables the identification of the different acoustic modes. The evaluation of DTI wetting is then performed by focusing on the first reflected echo obtained through the reflection at Si bottom interface, where wetting efficiency is crucial. The reflection coefficient is measured with different water / ethanol mixtures (tunable surface tension) deposited on the wafer frontside. Two cases are studied: with and without PFTS hydrophobic treatment. In the untreated surface case, acoustic reflection coefficient values with water show that liquid imbibition is partial. In the treated surface case, the acoustic reflection is total with water (no liquid in DTI). The impalement of the liquid occurs for a specific surface tension but it is still partial for pure ethanol. DTI bottom shape and local pattern collapse of the trenches can explain these incomplete wetting phenomena. This high-frequency acoustic method sensitivity coupled with a FDTD propagative model thus enables the local determination of the wetting state of a liquid on real structures. Partial wetting states for non-hydrophobic surfaces or low surface tension liquids are then detectable with this method.

Keywords: Wetting, acoustic reflectometry, gigahertz, semiconductor.

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Authors: Maisam Rafiee, Chikashi Deguchi, Akio Odake, Minoru Matsui, Takanori Sata

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Cities in Afghanistan have been rapidly urbanized; however, many parts of these cities have been developed with no detailed land use plan or infrastructure. In other words, they have been informally developed without any government leadership. The new government started the In-situ Upgrading Project in Kabul to upgrade roads, the water supply network system, and the surface water drainage system on the existing street layout in 2002, with the financial support of international agencies. This project is an appropriate emergency improvement for living life, but not an essential improvement of living conditions and infrastructure problems because the life expectancies of the improved facilities are as short as 10–15 years, and residents cannot obtain land tenure in the unplanned areas. The Land Readjustment System (LRS) conducted in Japan has good advantages that rearrange irregularly shaped land lots and develop the infrastructure effectively. This study investigates the effects of the In-situ Upgrading Project on private investment, land prices, and residents’ satisfaction with projects in Kart-e-Char, where properties are registered, and in Afshar-e-Silo Lot 1, where properties are unregistered. These projects are located 5 km and 7 km from the CBD area of Kabul, respectively. This study discusses whether LRS should be applied to the unplanned area based on the questionnaire and interview responses of experts experienced in the In-situ Upgrading Project who have knowledge of LRS. The analysis results reveal that, in Kart-e-Char, a lot of private investment has been made in the construction of medium-rise (five- to nine-story) buildings for commercial and residential purposes. Land values have also incrementally increased since the project, and residents are commonly satisfied with the road pavement, drainage systems, and water supplies, but dissatisfied with the poor delivery of electricity as well as the lack of public facilities (e.g., parks and sport facilities). In Afshar-e-Silo Lot 1, basic infrastructures like paved roads and surface water drainage systems have improved from the project. After the project, a few four- and five-story residential buildings were built with very low-level private investments, but significant increases in land prices were not evident. The residents are satisfied with the contribution ratio, drainage system, and small increase in land price, but there is still no drinking water supply system or tenure security; moreover, there are substandard paved roads and a lack of public facilities, such as parks, sport facilities, mosques, and schools. The results of the questionnaire and interviews with the four engineers highlight the problems that remain to be solved in the unplanned areas if LRS is applied—namely, land use differences, types and conditions of the infrastructure still to be installed by the project, and time spent for positive consensus building among the residents, given the project’s budget limitation.

Keywords: In-Situ Upgrading, Kabul, Land Readjustment, Land value, Planned areas, Private investment, Resident satisfaction, Unplanned areas.

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Authors: Z. Nurzaireena, K. Azalea, T. Azirawaty, S. Jameela, G. Muralitharan

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The aim of this study is the review of the management practices of sickle cell disease patients during pregnancy, as well as the maternal and neonatal outcome at Ampang Hospital, Selangor. The study consisted of a review of pregnant patients with sickle cell disease under follow up at the Hematology Clinic, Ampang Hospital over the last seven years to assess their management and maternal-fetal outcome. The results of the review show that Ampang Hospital is considered the public hematology centre for sickle cell disease and had successfully managed three pregnancies throughout the last seven years. Patients’ presentations, managements and maternal-fetal outcome were compared and reviewed for academic improvements. All three patients were seen very early in their pregnancy and had been given a regime of folic acid, antibiotics and thrombo-prophylactic drugs. Close monitoring of maternal and fetal well being was done by the hematologists and obstetricians. Among the patients, there were multiple admissions during the pregnancy for either a painful sickle cell bone crisis, haemolysis following an infection and anemia requiring phenotype- matched blood and exchange transfusions. Broad spectrum antibiotics coverage during and infection, hydration, pain management and venous-thrombolism prophylaxis were mandatory. The pregnancies managed to reach near term in the third trimester but all required emergency caesarean section for obstetric indications. All pregnancies resulted in live births with good fetal outcome. During post partum all were nursed closely in the high dependency units for further complications and were discharged well. Post partum follow up and contraception counseling was comprehensively given for future pregnancies. Sickle cell disease is uncommonly seen in the East, especially in the South East Asian region, yet more cases are seen in the current decade due to improved medical expertise and advance medical laboratory technologies. Pregnancy itself is a risk factor for sickle cell patients as increased thrombosis event and risk of infections can lead to multiple crisis, haemolysis, anemia and vaso-occlusive complications including eclampsia, cerebrovasular accidents and acute bone pain. Patients mostly require multiple blood product transfusions thus phenotype-matched blood is required to reduce the risk of alloimmunozation. Emphasizing the risks and complications in preconception counseling and establishing an ultimate pregnancy plan would probably reduce the risk of morbidity and mortality to the mother and unborn child. Early management for risk of infection, thromboembolic events and adequate hydration is mandatory. A holistic approach involving multidisciplinary team care between the hematologist, obstetricians, anesthetist, neonatologist and close nursing care for both mother and baby would ensure the best outcome. In conclusion, sickle cell disease by itself is a high risk medical condition and pregnancy would further amplify the risk. Thus, close monitoring with combine multidisciplinary care, counseling and educating the patients are crucial in achieving the safe outcome.

Keywords: Anemia, haemoglobinopathies, pregnancy, sickle cell disease.

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Authors: Steven W. Carruthers

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The purpose of the present research is to equate two test forms as part of a study to evaluate the educational effectiveness of the ARTé: Mecenas art history learning game. The researcher applied Item Response Theory (IRT) procedures to calculate item, test, and mean-sigma equating parameters. With the sample size n=134, test parameters indicated “good” model fit but low Test Information Functions and more acute than expected equating parameters. Therefore, the researcher applied equipercentile equating and linear equating to raw scores and compared the equated form parameters and effect sizes from each method. Item scaling in IRT enables the researcher to select a subset of well-discriminating items. The mean-sigma step produces a mean-slope adjustment from the anchor items, which was used to scale the score on the new form (Form R) to the reference form (Form Q) scale. In equipercentile equating, scores are adjusted to align the proportion of scores in each quintile segment. Linear equating produces a mean-slope adjustment, which was applied to all core items on the new form. The study followed a quasi-experimental design with purposeful sampling of students enrolled in a college level art history course (n=134) and counterbalancing design to distribute both forms on the pre- and posttests. The Experimental Group (n=82) was asked to play ARTé: Mecenas online and complete Level 4 of the game within a two-week period; 37 participants completed Level 4. Over the same period, the Control Group (n=52) did not play the game. The researcher examined between group differences from post-test scores on test Form Q and Form R by full-factorial Two-Way ANOVA. The raw score analysis indicated a 1.29% direct effect of form, which was statistically non-significant but may be practically significant. The researcher repeated the between group differences analysis with all three equating methods. For the IRT mean-sigma adjusted scores, form had a direct effect of 8.39%. Mean-sigma equating with a small sample may have resulted in inaccurate equating parameters. Equipercentile equating aligned test means and standard deviations, but resultant skewness and kurtosis worsened compared to raw score parameters. Form had a 3.18% direct effect. Linear equating produced the lowest Form effect, approaching 0%. Using linearly equated scores, the researcher conducted an ANCOVA to examine the effect size in terms of prior knowledge. The between group effect size for the Control Group versus Experimental Group participants who completed the game was 14.39% with a 4.77% effect size attributed to pre-test score. Playing and completing the game increased art history knowledge, and individuals with low prior knowledge tended to gain more from pre- to post test. Ultimately, researchers should approach test equating based on their theoretical stance on Classical Test Theory and IRT and the respective  assumptions. Regardless of the approach or method, test equating requires a representative sample of sufficient size. With small sample sizes, the application of a range of equating approaches can expose item and test features for review, inform interpretation, and identify paths for improving instruments for future study.

Keywords: Effectiveness, equipercentile equating, IRT, learning games, linear equating, mean-sigma equating.

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Authors: Diego Giuseppe Romano, Gianvito Apuleo, Jiri Duda

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Mobility is one of the most important societal needs for amusement, business activities and health. Thus, transport needs are continuously increasing, with the consequent traffic congestion and pollution increase. Aeronautic effort aims at smarter infrastructures use and in introducing greener concepts. A possible solution to address the abovementioned topics is the development of Small Air Transport (SAT) system, able to guarantee operability from today underused airfields in an affordable and green way, helping meanwhile travel time reduction, too. In the framework of Horizon2020, EU (European Union) has funded the Clean Sky 2 SAT TA (Transverse Activity) initiative to address market innovations able to reduce SAT operational cost and environmental impact, ensuring good levels of operational safety. Nowadays, most of the key technologies to improve passenger comfort and to reduce community noise, DOC (Direct Operating Costs) and pilot workload for SAT have reached an intermediate level of maturity TRL (Technology Readiness Level) 3/4. Thus, the key technologies must be developed, validated and integrated on dedicated ground and flying aircraft demonstrators to reach higher TRL levels (5/6). Particularly, SAT TA focuses on the integration at aircraft level of the following technologies [1]: 1)    Low-cost composite wing box and engine nacelle using OoA (Out of Autoclave) technology, LRI (Liquid Resin Infusion) and advance automation process. 2) Innovative high lift devices, allowing aircraft operations from short airfields (< 800 m). 3) Affordable small aircraft manufacturing of metallic fuselage using FSW (Friction Stir Welding) and LMD (Laser Metal Deposition). 4)       Affordable fly-by-wire architecture for small aircraft (CS23 certification rules). 5) More electric systems replacing pneumatic and hydraulic systems (high voltage EPGDS -Electrical Power Generation and Distribution System-, hybrid de-ice system, landing gear and brakes). 6) Advanced avionics for small aircraft, reducing pilot workload. 7) Advanced cabin comfort with new interiors materials and more comfortable seats. 8) New generation of turboprop engine with reduced fuel consumption, emissions, noise and maintenance costs for 19 seats aircraft. (9) Alternative diesel engine for 9 seats commuter aircraft. To address abovementioned market innovations, two different platforms have been designed: Reference and Green aircraft. Reference aircraft is a virtual aircraft designed considering 2014 technologies with an existing engine assuring requested take-off power; Green aircraft is designed integrating the technologies addressed in Clean Sky 2. Preliminary integration of the proposed technologies shows an encouraging reduction of emissions and operational costs of small: about 20% CO₂ reduction, about 24% NO_x reduction, about 10 db (A) noise reduction at measurement point and about 25% DOC reduction. Detailed description of the performed studies, analyses and validations for each technology as well as the expected benefit at aircraft level are reported in the present paper.

Keywords: Affordable, European, green, mobility, technologies development, travel time reduction.

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Authors: Sujana Dhar, Asis Mazumdar

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The effects of global warming on India vary from the submergence of low-lying islands and coastal lands to the melting of glaciers in the Indian Himalayas, threatening the volumetric flow rate of many of the most important rivers of India and South Asia. In India, such effects are projected to impact millions of lives. As a result of ongoing climate change, the climate of India has become increasingly volatile over the past several decades; this trend is expected to continue. Climate change is one of the most important global environmental challenges, with implications for food production, water supply, health, energy, etc. Addressing climate change requires a good scientific understanding as well as coordinated action at national and global level. The climate change issue is part of the larger challenge of sustainable development. As a result, climate policies can be more effective when consistently embedded within broader strategies designed to make national and regional development paths more sustainable. The impact of climate variability and change, climate policy responses, and associated socio-economic development will affect the ability of countries to achieve sustainable development goals. A very well calibrated Soil and Water Assessment Tool (R2 = 0.9968, NSE = 0.91) was exercised over the Khatra sub basin of the Kangsabati River watershed in Bankura district of West Bengal, India, in order to evaluate projected parameters for agricultural activities. Evapotranspiration, Transmission Losses, Potential Evapotranspiration and Lateral Flow to reach are evaluated from the years 2041-2050 in order to generate a picture for sustainable development of the river basin and its inhabitants. India has a significant stake in scientific advancement as well as an international understanding to promote mitigation and adaptation. This requires improved scientific understanding, capacity building, networking and broad consultation processes. This paper is a commitment towards the planning, management and development of the water resources of the Kangsabati River by presenting detailed future scenarios of the Kangsabati river basin, Khatra sub basin, over the mentioned time period. India-s economy and societal infrastructures are finely tuned to the remarkable stability of the Indian monsoon, with the consequence that vulnerability to small changes in monsoon rainfall is very high. In 2002 the monsoon rains failed during July, causing profound loss of agricultural production with a drop of over 3% in India-s GDP. Neither the prolonged break in the monsoon nor the seasonal rainfall deficit was predicted. While the general features of monsoon variability and change are fairly well-documented, the causal mechanisms and the role of regional ecosystems in modulating the changes are still not clear. Current climate models are very poor at modelling the Asian monsoon: this is a challenging and critical region where the ocean, atmosphere, land surface and mountains all interact. The impact of climate change on regional ecosystems is likewise unknown. The potential for the monsoon to become more volatile has major implications for India itself and for economies worldwide. Knowledge of future variability of the monsoon system, particularly in the context of global climate change, is of great concern for regional water and food security. The major findings of this paper were that of all the chosen projected parameters, transmission losses, soil water content, potential evapotranspiration, evapotranspiration and lateral flow to reach, display an increasing trend over the time period of years 2041- 2050.

Keywords: Change, future water availability scenario, modeling, SWAT, global warming, sustainability.

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