Search results for: dual support methods
Commenced in January 2007
Frequency: Monthly
Edition: International
Paper Count: 5780

Search results for: dual support methods

3680 Entropy Based Spatial Design: A Genetic Algorithm Approach (Case Study)

Authors: Abbas Siefi, Mohammad Javad Karimifar

Abstract:

We study the spatial design of experiment and we want to select a most informative subset, having prespecified size, from a set of correlated random variables. The problem arises in many applied domains, such as meteorology, environmental statistics, and statistical geology. In these applications, observations can be collected at different locations and possibly at different times. In spatial design, when the design region and the set of interest are discrete then the covariance matrix completely describe any objective function and our goal is to choose a feasible design that minimizes the resulting uncertainty. The problem is recast as that of maximizing the determinant of the covariance matrix of the chosen subset. This problem is NP-hard. For using these designs in computer experiments, in many cases, the design space is very large and it's not possible to calculate the exact optimal solution. Heuristic optimization methods can discover efficient experiment designs in situations where traditional designs cannot be applied, exchange methods are ineffective and exact solution not possible. We developed a GA algorithm to take advantage of the exploratory power of this algorithm. The successful application of this method is demonstrated in large design space. We consider a real case of design of experiment. In our problem, design space is very large and for solving the problem, we used proposed GA algorithm.

Keywords: Spatial design of experiments, maximum entropy sampling, computer experiments, genetic algorithm.

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3679 Heritability Estimates of Lactation Traits in Maltese Goat

Authors: R. Pesce Delfino, M. Selvaggi, G. V. Celano, C. Dario

Abstract:

Data on 657 lactation from 163 Maltese goat, collected over a 5-year period were analyzed by a mixed model to estimate the variance components for heritability. The considered lactation traits were: milk yield (MY) and lactation length (LL). Year, parity and type of birth (single or twin) were significant sources of variation for lactation length; on the other hand milk yield was significantly influenced only by the year. The average MY was 352.34 kg and the average LL was 230 days. Estimates of heritability were 0.21 and 0.15 for MY and LL respectively. These values suggest there is low correlation between genotype and phenotype so it may be difficult to evaluate animals directly on phenotype. So, the genetic improvement of this breed may be quite slow without the support of progeny test aimed to select Maltese breeders.

Keywords: Heritability estimate, lactation traits, Maltese goat

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3678 The Link between Distributed Leadership and Educational Outcomes: An Overview of Research

Authors: Maria Eliophotou Menon

Abstract:

School leadership is commonly considered to have a significant influence on school effectiveness and improvement. Effective school leaders are expected to successfully introduce and support change and innovation at the school unit. Despite an abundance of studies on educational leadership, very few studies have provided evidence on the link between leadership models, and specific educational and school outcomes. This is true of a popular contemporary approach to leadership, namely, distributed leadership. The paper provides an overview of research findings on the effect of distributed leadership on educational outcomes. The theoretical basis for this approach to leadership is presented, with reference to methodological and research limitations. The paper discusses research findings and draws their implications for educational research on school leadership.

Keywords: Distributed leadership, educational outcomes, leadership research.

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3677 Release Management with Continuous Delivery: A Case Study

Authors: A. Maruf Aytekin

Abstract:

We present our approach on using continuous delivery pattern for release management. One of the key practices of agile and lean teams is the continuous delivery of new features to stakeholders. The main benefits of this approach lie in the ability to release new applications rapidly which has real strategic impact on the competitive advantage of an organization. Organizations that successfully implement Continuous Delivery have the ability to evolve rapidly to support innovation, provide stable and reliable software in more efficient ways, decrease the amount of resources need for maintenance, and lower the software delivery time and costs. One of the objectives of this paper is to elaborate a case study where IT division of Central Securities Depository Institution (MKK) of Turkey apply Continuous Delivery pattern to improve release management process.

Keywords: Automation, continuous delivery, deployment, release management.

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3676 ReSeT : Reverse Engineering System Requirements Tool

Authors: Rosziati Ibrahim, Tiu Kian Yong

Abstract:

Reverse Engineering is a very important process in Software Engineering. It can be performed backwards from system development life cycle (SDLC) in order to get back the source data or representations of a system through analysis of its structure, function and operation. We use reverse engineering to introduce an automatic tool to generate system requirements from its program source codes. The tool is able to accept the Cµ programming source codes, scan the source codes line by line and parse the codes to parser. Then, the engine of the tool will be able to generate system requirements for that specific program to facilitate reuse and enhancement of the program. The purpose of producing the tool is to help recovering the system requirements of any system when the system requirements document (SRD) does not exist due to undocumented support of the system.

Keywords: System Requirements, Reverse Engineering, SourceCodes.

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3675 Technologies of Acylation of Hydroxyanthraquinones

Authors: Dmitry Yu. Korulkin, Raissa A. Muzychkina

Abstract:

In review the generalized data about different methods of synthesis of biological activity acylatedhydrohyanthraquinones is presented. The basic regularity of a synthesis is analyzed. Action of temperature, pH, solubility, catalysts and other factors on a reaction product yield is revealed.

Keywords: Aminoacidic acylation, hydroxyanthraquinones, nucleophilic exchange, physiologically active substances.

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3674 Technologies of Halogenation of Hydroxyanthraquinones

Authors: Dmitriy Yu. Korulkin, Raissa A. Muzychkina

Abstract:

In review the generalized data about different methods of synthesis of biological activity halogenated di-, tri- and tetrahydroxyanthraquinones is presented. The basic regularity of a synthesis is analyzed. Action of temperature, pH, solubility, catalysts and other factors on a reaction product yield is revealed.

Keywords: Electrophilic substitution, halogenation, hydroxyanthraquinones, physiologically active substances.

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3673 Rotorcraft Performance and Environmental Impact Evaluation by Multidisciplinary Modelling

Authors: Pierre-Marie Basset, Gabriel Reboul, Binh DangVu, Sébastien Mercier

Abstract:

Rotorcraft provides invaluable services thanks to their Vertical Take-Off and Landing (VTOL), hover and low speed capabilities. Yet their use is still often limited by their cost and environmental impact, especially noise and energy consumption. One of the main brakes to the expansion of the use of rotorcraft for urban missions is the environmental impact. The first main concern for the population is the noise. In order to develop the transversal competency to assess the rotorcraft environmental footprint, a collaboration has been launched between six research departments within ONERA. The progress in terms of models and methods are capitalized into the numerical workshop C.R.E.A.T.I.O.N. “Concepts of Rotorcraft Enhanced Assessment Through Integrated Optimization Network”. A typical mission for which the environmental impact issue is of great relevance has been defined. The first milestone is to perform the pre-sizing of a reference helicopter for this mission. In a second milestone, an alternate rotorcraft concept has been defined: a tandem rotorcraft with optional propulsion. The key design trends are given for the pre-sizing of this rotorcraft aiming at a significant reduction of the global environmental impact while still giving equivalent flight performance and safety with respect to the reference helicopter. The models and methods have been improved for catching sooner and more globally, the relative variations on the environmental impact when changing the rotorcraft architecture, the pre-design variables and the operation parameters.

Keywords: Environmental impact, flight performance, helicopter, rotorcraft pre-sizing.

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3672 Dynamics in Tangible Chemical Reactions

Authors: Patrick Maier, Marcus Tönnis, Gudrun Klinker

Abstract:

Spatial understanding and the understanding of dynamic change in the spatial structure of molecules during a reaction is essential for designing new molecules. Knowing the physical processes in the reactions helps to speed up the designing process. To support the designer with the correct representation of the designed molecule as well as showing the dynamic behavior of the whole reacting system is the goal of our application. Our system shows the spatial deformation of the molecules at every time interval by minimizing the energy level of the molecules. The position and orientation of the molecules can be intuitively controlled by manipulating objects of the real world using Augmented Reality techniques. Our approach has the potential to speed up the design of new molecules and help students to understand the chemical processes better.

Keywords: Augmented Augmented Chemical Reactions, Augmented Reality, chemistry, education.

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3671 Measuring Science and Technology Innovation Capacity in Developing Countries: From a National Innovation System

Authors: Haeng A. Seo, Changseok Oh, Seung Jun Yoo

Abstract:

This study attempts to examine the disparities in S&T innovation capacity from 14 developing countries to discuss how to support specific features in national innovation systems. It includes East-Asian, Middle-Asian, Central American and African countries. Here, we particularly focus on five dimensions- resources, activities, network, environment and performance- with 37 indicators. They were derived as structuring components of the relevant diagnostic model, which encompasses the whole process of S&T innovation from the input of resources to the output of economically valuable results. For many developing nations, economic industries remain weaker than actual S&T capabilities, and relevant regulatory authorities may not exist. This paper will be helpful to provide basic evidence and to set directions for better national S&T Innovation capacities and toward national competitiveness.

Keywords: Developing countries, measurement, NIS, S&T innovation capacity.

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3670 Nonlinear Large Deformation Analysis of Rotor

Authors: Amin Almasi

Abstract:

Reliability assessment and risk analysis of rotating machine rotors in various overload and malfunction situations present challenge to engineers and operators. In this paper a new analytical method for evaluation of rotor under large deformation is addressed. Model is presented in general form to include also composite rotors. Presented simulation procedure is based on variational work method and has capability to account for geometric nonlinearity, large displacement, nonlinear support effect and rotor contacting other machine components. New shape functions are presented which capable to predict accurate nonlinear profile of rotor. The closed form solutions for various operating and malfunction situations are expressed. Analytical simulation results are discussed

Keywords: Large Deformation, Nonlinear, Rotor.

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3669 Decision Rule Induction in a Learning Content Management System

Authors: Nittaya Kerdprasop, Narin Muenrat, Kittisak Kerdprasop

Abstract:

A learning content management system (LCMS) is an environment to support web-based learning content development. Primary function of the system is to manage the learning process as well as to generate content customized to meet a unique requirement of each learner. Among the available supporting tools offered by several vendors, we propose to enhance the LCMS functionality to individualize the presented content with the induction ability. Our induction technique is based on rough set theory. The induced rules are intended to be the supportive knowledge for guiding the content flow planning. They can also be used as decision rules to help content developers on managing content delivered to individual learner.

Keywords: Decision rules, Knowledge induction, Learning content management system, Rough set.

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3668 A Comparative Analysis of Heuristics Applied to Collecting Used Lubricant Oils Generated in the City of Pereira, Colombia

Authors: Diana Fajardo, Sebastián Ortiz, Oscar Herrera, Angélica Santis

Abstract:

Currently, in Colombia is arising a problem related to collecting used lubricant oils which are generated by the increment of the vehicle fleet. This situation does not allow a proper disposal of this type of waste, which in turn results in a negative impact on the environment. Therefore, through the comparative analysis of various heuristics, the best solution to the VRP (Vehicle Routing Problem) was selected by comparing costs and times for the collection of used lubricant oils in the city of Pereira, Colombia; since there is no presence of management companies engaged in the direct administration of the collection of this pollutant. To achieve this aim, six proposals of through methods of solution of two phases were discussed. First, the assignment of the group of generator points of the residue was made (previously identified). Proposals one and four of through methods are based on the closeness of points. The proposals two and five are using the scanning method and the proposals three and six are considering the restriction of the capacity of collection vehicle. Subsequently, the routes were developed - in the first three proposals by the Clarke and Wright's savings algorithm and in the following proposals by the Traveling Salesman optimization mathematical model. After applying techniques, a comparative analysis of the results was performed and it was determined which of the proposals presented the most optimal values in terms of the distance, cost and travel time.

Keywords: Heuristics, optimization model, savings algorithm used vehicular oil, VRP.

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3667 Automated Java Testing: JUnit versus AspectJ

Authors: Manish Jain, Dinesh Gopalani

Abstract:

Growing dependency of mankind on software technology increases the need for thorough testing of the software applications and automated testing techniques that support testing activities. We have outlined our testing strategy for performing various types of automated testing of Java applications using AspectJ which has become the de-facto standard for Aspect Oriented Programming (AOP). Likewise JUnit, a unit testing framework is the most popular Java testing tool. In this paper, we have evaluated our proposed AOP approach for automated testing and JUnit on various parameters. First we have provided the similarity between the two approaches and then we have done a detailed comparison of the two testing techniques on factors like lines of testing code, learning curve, testing of private members etc. We established that our AOP testing approach using AspectJ has got several advantages and is thus particularly more effective than JUnit.

Keywords: Aspect oriented programming, AspectJ, Aspects, JUnit, software testing.

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3666 Virtual E-Medic: A Cloud Based Medical Aid

Authors: Madiajagan Muthaiyan, Neha Goel, Deepti Sunder Prakash

Abstract:

This paper discusses about an intelligent system to be installed in ambulances providing professional support to the paramedics on board. A video conferencing device over mobile 4G services enables specialists virtually attending the patient being transferred to the hospital. The data centre holds detailed databases on the patients past medical history and hospitals with the specialists. It also hosts various software modules that compute the shortest traffic –less path to the closest hospital with the required facilities, on inputting the symptoms of the patient, on a real time basis.

Keywords: 4G mobile services, cloud computing, data centre, intelligent system, optimization, real time traffic reporting, SaaS, video conferencing.

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3665 Six Sigma Process and its Impact on the Organizational Productivity

Authors: Masoud Hekmatpanah, Mohammad Sadroddin, Saeid Shahbaz, Farhad Mokhtari, Farahnaz Fadavinia

Abstract:

The six sigma method is a project-driven management approach to improve the organization-s products, services, and processes by continually reducing defects in the organization. Understanding the key features, obstacles, and shortcomings of the six sigma method allows organizations to better support their strategic directions, and increasing needs for coaching, mentoring, and training. It also provides opportunities to better implement six sigma projects. The purpose of this paper is the survey of six sigma process and its impact on the organizational productivity. So I have studied key concepts , problem solving process of six sigmaas well as the survey of important fields such as: DMAIC, six sigma and productivity applied programme, and other advantages of six sigma. In the end of this paper, present research conclusions. (direct and positive relation between six sigma and productivity)

Keywords: Six sigma, project management, quality, theory, productivity.

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3664 Corruption, Economic Growth, and Income Inequality: Evidence from Ten Countries in Asia

Authors: Chiung-Ju Huang

Abstract:

This study utilizes the panel vector error correction model (PVECM) to examine the relationship among corruption, economic growth, and income inequality experienced within ten Asian countries over the 1995 to 2010 period. According to the empirical results, we do not support the common perception that corruption decreases economic growth. On the contrary, we found that corruption increases economic growth. Meanwhile, an increase in economic growth will cause an increase in income inequality, although the effect is insignificant. Similarly, an increase in income inequality will cause an increase in economic growth but a decrease in corruption, although the effect is also insignificant.

Keywords: Corruption, economic growth, income inequality, panel vector error correction model

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3663 A Renovated Cook's Distance Based On The Buckley-James Estimate In Censored Regression

Authors: Nazrina Aziz, Dong Q. Wang

Abstract:

There have been various methods created based on the regression ideas to resolve the problem of data set containing censored observations, i.e. the Buckley-James method, Miller-s method, Cox method, and Koul-Susarla-Van Ryzin estimators. Even though comparison studies show the Buckley-James method performs better than some other methods, it is still rarely used by researchers mainly because of the limited diagnostics analysis developed for the Buckley-James method thus far. Therefore, a diagnostic tool for the Buckley-James method is proposed in this paper. It is called the renovated Cook-s Distance, (RD* i ) and has been developed based on the Cook-s idea. The renovated Cook-s Distance (RD* i ) has advantages (depending on the analyst demand) over (i) the change in the fitted value for a single case, DFIT* i as it measures the influence of case i on all n fitted values Yˆ∗ (not just the fitted value for case i as DFIT* i) (ii) the change in the estimate of the coefficient when the ith case is deleted, DBETA* i since DBETA* i corresponds to the number of variables p so it is usually easier to look at a diagnostic measure such as RD* i since information from p variables can be considered simultaneously. Finally, an example using Stanford Heart Transplant data is provided to illustrate the proposed diagnostic tool.

Keywords: Buckley-James estimators, censored regression, censored data, diagnostic analysis, product-limit estimator, renovated Cook's Distance.

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3662 A Methodology for Automatic Diversification of Document Categories

Authors: Dasom Kim, Chen Liu, Myungsu Lim, Soo-Hyeon Jeon, Byeoung Kug Jeon, Kee-Young Kwahk, Namgyu Kim

Abstract:

Recently, numerous documents including large volumes of unstructured data and text have been created because of the rapid increase in the use of social media and the Internet. Usually, these documents are categorized for the convenience of users. Because the accuracy of manual categorization is not guaranteed, and such categorization requires a large amount of time and incurs huge costs. Many studies on automatic categorization have been conducted to help mitigate the limitations of manual categorization. Unfortunately, most of these methods cannot be applied to categorize complex documents with multiple topics because they work on the assumption that individual documents can be categorized into single categories only. Therefore, to overcome this limitation, some studies have attempted to categorize each document into multiple categories. However, the learning process employed in these studies involves training using a multi-categorized document set. These methods therefore cannot be applied to the multi-categorization of most documents unless multi-categorized training sets using traditional multi-categorization algorithms are provided. To overcome this limitation, in this study, we review our novel methodology for extending the category of a single-categorized document to multiple categorizes, and then introduce a survey-based verification scenario for estimating the accuracy of our automatic categorization methodology.

Keywords: Big Data Analysis, Document Classification, Text Mining, Topic Analysis.

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3661 Semi-Automatic Trend Detection in Scholarly Repository Using Semantic Approach

Authors: Fereshteh Mahdavi, Maizatul Akmar Ismail, Noorhidawati Abdullah

Abstract:

Currently WWW is the first solution for scholars in finding information. But, analyzing and interpreting this volume of information will lead to researchers overload in pursuing their research. Trend detection in scientific publication retrieval systems helps scholars to find relevant, new and popular special areas by visualizing the trend of input topic. However, there are few researches on trend detection in scientific corpora while their proposed models do not appear to be suitable. Previous works lack of an appropriate representation scheme for research topics. This paper describes a method that combines Semantic Web and ontology to support advance search functions such as trend detection in the context of scholarly Semantic Web system (SSWeb).

Keywords: Trend, Semi-Automatic Trend Detection, Ontology, Semantic Trend Detection.

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3660 Designs of Temperature Measuring Device for a Re-Configured Milling Machine

Authors: Esther T. Akinlabi, Stephen A. Akinlabi

Abstract:

The design of temperature measuring approach for a re-configured milling machine to produce friction stir welds is reported in this paper. The product design specifications for the redesigning of a milling machine were first outlined and the ranking criteria were determined. Three different concepts were generated for the temperature measurement on the reconfigured system and the preferred or the best concept was selected based on the set design ranking criteria. Further simulation and performance analysis was then conducted on the concept. The Infrared Thermography (IRT) concept was selected for the temperature measurement among other concepts generated because it is an ideal and most effective system of measurement in this regard.

Keywords: Clamping system, Friction Stir Welding, Reconfiguration, Support systems.

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3659 Wideband Tunable RF Filters for Channel Selection in Crowded Spectral Bands

Authors: Sanghoon Park, Ki-Jin Kim, Kwang-Ho Ahn, Hyeon-Woo Lee

Abstract:

It is very effective way to utilize a very wide tunable filter in co-existing multi-standards wireless communications environment. Especially, as the long term evolution (LTE) communication era has come, the multi-band coverage is one of the important features required for the RF components. In this paper, we present the frequency conversion technique, and so generate two types of RF filters which are specially designed for the superb tunable ability to support multiple wireless communication standards. With the help of a complex mixing structure, the inherent image signal is suppressed. The RF band-pass filter (BPF) and notch filter achieve 1.8dB and 1.6dB insertion losses and 18 dB and 17 dB attenuations, respectively. The quality factor show greater than 30.

Keywords: RF filters, interference, wideband, tunable, channel selection, complex mixing, balanced mixer.

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3658 Socio-Technical Systems: Transforming Theory into Practice

Authors: L. Ngowi, N. H. Mvungi

Abstract:

This paper critically examines the evolution of socio-technical systems theory, its practices, and challenges in system design and development. It examines concepts put forward by researchers focusing on the application of the theory in software engineering. There are various methods developed that use socio-technical concepts based on systems engineering without remarkable success. The main constraint is the large amount of data and inefficient techniques used in the application of the concepts in system engineering for developing time-bound systems and within a limited/controlled budget. This paper critically examines each of the methods, highlight bottlenecks and suggest the way forward. Since socio-technical systems theory only explains what to do, but not how doing it, hence engineers are not using the concept to save time, costs and reduce risks associated with new frameworks. Hence, a new framework, which can be considered as a practical approach is proposed that borrows concepts from soft systems method, agile systems development and object-oriented analysis and design to bridge the gap between theory and practice. The approach will enable the development of systems using socio-technical systems theory to attract/enable the system engineers/software developers to use socio-technical systems theory in building worthwhile information systems to avoid fragilities and hostilities in the work environment.

Keywords: Socio-technical systems, human centered design, software engineering, cognitive engineering, soft systems, systems engineering.

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3657 Curvelet Features with Mouth and Face Edge Ratios for Facial Expression Identification

Authors: S. Kherchaoui, A. Houacine

Abstract:

This paper presents a facial expression recognition system. It performs identification and classification of the seven basic expressions; happy, surprise, fear, disgust, sadness, anger, and neutral states. It consists of three main parts. The first one is the detection of a face and the corresponding facial features to extract the most expressive portion of the face, followed by a normalization of the region of interest. Then calculus of curvelet coefficients is performed with dimensionality reduction through principal component analysis. The resulting coefficients are combined with two ratios; mouth ratio and face edge ratio to constitute the whole feature vector. The third step is the classification of the emotional state using the SVM method in the feature space.

Keywords: Facial expression identification, curvelet coefficients, support vector machine (SVM).

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3656 Economic Assessment Methodology to Support Decisions for Transport Infrastructure Development

Authors: Dimitrios J. Dimitriou

Abstract:

The decades after the end of the second War provide evidence that infrastructures investments contibute to economic development, on terms of productivity and income growth. In order to force productivity and increase competitiveness the financing of large transport infrastructure projects are on the top of the agenda in strategic planning process. Such a decision may take form some days to some decades and stakeholders as well as decision makers need tools in order to estimate the economic impact on natioanl economy of such an investment. The key question in such decisions is if the effects caused by the new infrastructure could be able to boost economic development on one hand, and create new jobs and activities on the other. This paper deals with the review of estimation of the mega transport infrastructure projects economic effects in economy.

Keywords: Economic impact, transport infrastructure, strategic planning.

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3655 Increasing the Efficacy of Educators Teaching Online

Authors: Carol Shepherd, Madelon Alpert, Marilyn Koeller

Abstract:

In order to provide and maintain effective pedagogy for the burgeoning virtual reality community, it is vital to have trained faculty in the institutions of higher education who will teach these courses and be able to make full use of their academic knowledge and expertise. As the number of online courses continues to grow, there is a need for these institutions to establish mentoring programs that will support the novice online instructor. The environment in which this takes place and the factors that ensure its success are critical to the adoption of the new instructional delivery format taught by both seasoned educators and adjunct instructors. Effective one-on-one mentoring promotes a professional, compassionate and collegial faculty who will provide a consistent and rigorous academic program for students online.

Keywords: Mentoring seasoned faculty, staff development, online pedagogy, online andragogy.

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3654 Statistical Measures and Optimization Algorithms for Gene Selection in Lung and Ovarian Tumor

Authors: C. Gunavathi, K. Premalatha

Abstract:

Microarray technology is universally used in the study of disease diagnosis using gene expression levels. The main shortcoming of gene expression data is that it includes thousands of genes and a small number of samples. Abundant methods and techniques have been proposed for tumor classification using microarray gene expression data. Feature or gene selection methods can be used to mine the genes that directly involve in the classification and to eliminate irrelevant genes. In this paper statistical measures like T-Statistics, Signal-to-Noise Ratio (SNR) and F-Statistics are used to rank the genes. The ranked genes are used for further classification. Particle Swarm Optimization (PSO) algorithm and Shuffled Frog Leaping (SFL) algorithm are used to find the significant genes from the top-m ranked genes. The Naïve Bayes Classifier (NBC) is used to classify the samples based on the significant genes. The proposed work is applied on Lung and Ovarian datasets. The experimental results show that the proposed method achieves 100% accuracy in all the three datasets and the results are compared with previous works.

Keywords: Microarray, T-Statistics, Signal-to-Noise Ratio, FStatistics, Particle Swarm Optimization, Shuffled Frog Leaping, Naïve Bayes Classifier.

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3653 Parametric Approach for Reserve Liability Estimate in Mortgage Insurance

Authors: Rajinder Singh, Ram Valluru

Abstract:

Chain Ladder (CL) method, Expected Loss Ratio (ELR) method and Bornhuetter-Ferguson (BF) method, in addition to more complex transition-rate modeling, are commonly used actuarial reserving methods in general insurance. There is limited published research about their relative performance in the context of Mortgage Insurance (MI). In our experience, these traditional techniques pose unique challenges and do not provide stable claim estimates for medium to longer term liabilities. The relative strengths and weaknesses among various alternative approaches revolve around: stability in the recent loss development pattern, sufficiency and reliability of loss development data, and agreement/disagreement between reported losses to date and ultimate loss estimate. CL method results in volatile reserve estimates, especially for accident periods with little development experience. The ELR method breaks down especially when ultimate loss ratios are not stable and predictable. While the BF method provides a good tradeoff between the loss development approach (CL) and ELR, the approach generates claim development and ultimate reserves that are disconnected from the ever-to-date (ETD) development experience for some accident years that have more development experience. Further, BF is based on subjective a priori assumption. The fundamental shortcoming of these methods is their inability to model exogenous factors, like the economy, which impact various cohorts at the same chronological time but at staggered points along their life-time development. This paper proposes an alternative approach of parametrizing the loss development curve and using logistic regression to generate the ultimate loss estimate for each homogeneous group (accident year or delinquency period). The methodology was tested on an actual MI claim development dataset where various cohorts followed a sigmoidal trend, but levels varied substantially depending upon the economic and operational conditions during the development period spanning over many years. The proposed approach provides the ability to indirectly incorporate such exogenous factors and produce more stable loss forecasts for reserving purposes as compared to the traditional CL and BF methods.

Keywords: Actuarial loss reserving techniques, logistic regression, parametric function, volatility.

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3652 How Do Crisis Affect Economic Policy?

Authors: Eva Kotlánová

Abstract:

After recession that began in 2007 in the United States and subsequently spilled over the Europe we could expect recovery of economic growth. According to the last estimation of economic progress of European countries, this recovery is not strong enough. Among others, it will depend on economic policy, where and in which way, the economic indicators will proceed. Economic theories postulate that the economic subjects prefer stably, continual economic policy without repeated and strong fluctuations. This policy is perceived as support of economic growth. Mostly in crises period, when the government must cope with consequences of recession, the economic policy becomes unpredictable for many subjects and economic policy uncertainty grows, which have negative influence on economic growth. The aim of this paper is to use panel regression to prove or disprove this hypothesis on the example of five largest European economies in the period 2008–2012.

Keywords: Economic Crises in Europe, Economic Policy, Uncertainty, Panel Analysis Regression.

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3651 Online Metacognitive Reading Strategies Use by Postgraduate Libyan EFL Students

Authors: Najwa Alsayed Omar

Abstract:

With the increasing popularity of the Internet, online reading has become an essential source for EFL readers. Using strategies to comprehend information on online reading texts play a crucial role in students’ academic success. Metacognitive reading strategies are effective factors that enhance EFL learners reading comprehension. This study aimed at exploring the use of online metacognitive reading strategies by postgraduate Libyan EFL students. Quantitative data was collected using the Survey of Online Reading Strategies (OSORS). The findings revealed that the participants were moderate users of metacognitive online reading strategies. Problem solving strategies were the most frequently reported used strategies, while support reading strategies were the least. The five most and least frequently reported strategies were identified. Based on the findings, some future research recommendations were presented.

Keywords: Metacognitive strategies, Online reading, Online reading strategies, Postgraduate students.

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