Search results for: Selection of risk measures
Commenced in January 2007
Frequency: Monthly
Edition: International
Paper Count: 2729

Search results for: Selection of risk measures

2549 Network Intrusion Detection Design Using Feature Selection of Soft Computing Paradigms

Authors: T. S. Chou, K. K. Yen, J. Luo

Abstract:

The network traffic data provided for the design of intrusion detection always are large with ineffective information and enclose limited and ambiguous information about users- activities. We study the problems and propose a two phases approach in our intrusion detection design. In the first phase, we develop a correlation-based feature selection algorithm to remove the worthless information from the original high dimensional database. Next, we design an intrusion detection method to solve the problems of uncertainty caused by limited and ambiguous information. In the experiments, we choose six UCI databases and DARPA KDD99 intrusion detection data set as our evaluation tools. Empirical studies indicate that our feature selection algorithm is capable of reducing the size of data set. Our intrusion detection method achieves a better performance than those of participating intrusion detectors.

Keywords: Intrusion detection, feature selection, k-nearest neighbors, fuzzy clustering, Dempster-Shafer theory

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2548 Analytic Network Process in Location Selection and Its Application to a Real Life Problem

Authors: Eylem Koç, Hasan Arda Burhan

Abstract:

Location selection presents a crucial decision problem in today’s business world where strategic decision making processes have critical importance. Thus, location selection has strategic importance for companies in boosting their strength regarding competition, increasing corporate performances and efficiency in addition to lowering production and transportation costs. A right choice in location selection has a direct impact on companies’ commercial success. In this study, a store location selection problem of Carglass Turkey which operates in vehicle glass branch is handled. As this problem includes both tangible and intangible criteria, Analytic Network Process (ANP) was accepted as the main methodology. The model consists of control hierarchy and BOCR subnetworks which include clusters of actors, alternatives and criteria. In accordance with the management’s choices, five different locations were selected. In addition to the literature review, a strict cooperation with the actor group was ensured and maintained while determining the criteria and during whole process. Obtained results were presented to the management as a report and its feasibility was confirmed accordingly.

Keywords: Analytic Network Process, BOCR, location selection, multi-actor decision making, multi-criteria decision making, real life problem.

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2547 Anomaly Detection using Neuro Fuzzy system

Authors: Fatemeh Amiri, Caro Lucas, Nasser Yazdani

Abstract:

As the network based technologies become omnipresent, demands to secure networks/systems against threat increase. One of the effective ways to achieve higher security is through the use of intrusion detection systems (IDS), which are a software tool to detect anomalous in the computer or network. In this paper, an IDS has been developed using an improved machine learning based algorithm, Locally Linear Neuro Fuzzy Model (LLNF) for classification whereas this model is originally used for system identification. A key technical challenge in IDS and LLNF learning is the curse of high dimensionality. Therefore a feature selection phase is proposed which is applicable to any IDS. While investigating the use of three feature selection algorithms, in this model, it is shown that adding feature selection phase reduces computational complexity of our model. Feature selection algorithms require the use of a feature goodness measure. The use of both a linear and a non-linear measure - linear correlation coefficient and mutual information- is investigated respectively

Keywords: anomaly Detection, feature selection, Locally Linear Neuro Fuzzy (LLNF), Mutual Information (MI), liner correlation coefficient.

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2546 Deficiency Risk in Islamic and Conventional Banks

Authors: Korbi Fakhri

Abstract:

In this article, we have elaborated a study over the nature of financial intermediation in Islamic banks by comparison to those of conventional ones. We have found a striking difference between two kinds of intermediation. We tried, from another side, to study the relationship between the capital level and deficiency risk relying on econometric model, and we have obtained a positive and significant relation between the capital and the deficiency risk for the conventional banks. This means that when the capital of these banks increases, the deficiency risk increases as well. In return, since the Islamic banks are constrained to respect the Sharia Committee as well as customers’ demands that may, in certain contracts, choose to invest their capitals in projects they are interested in. These constraints have as effects to reduce the deficiency risk even when the capital increases.

Keywords: Conventional bank, deficiency risk, financial intermediation, Islamic bank.

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2545 On the Performance of Information Criteria in Latent Segment Models

Authors: Jaime R. S. Fonseca

Abstract:

Nevertheless the widespread application of finite mixture models in segmentation, finite mixture model selection is still an important issue. In fact, the selection of an adequate number of segments is a key issue in deriving latent segments structures and it is desirable that the selection criteria used for this end are effective. In order to select among several information criteria, which may support the selection of the correct number of segments we conduct a simulation study. In particular, this study is intended to determine which information criteria are more appropriate for mixture model selection when considering data sets with only categorical segmentation base variables. The generation of mixtures of multinomial data supports the proposed analysis. As a result, we establish a relationship between the level of measurement of segmentation variables and some (eleven) information criteria-s performance. The criterion AIC3 shows better performance (it indicates the correct number of the simulated segments- structure more often) when referring to mixtures of multinomial segmentation base variables.

Keywords: Quantitative Methods, Multivariate Data Analysis, Clustering, Finite Mixture Models, Information Theoretical Criteria, Simulation experiments.

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2544 Assessing and Visualizing the Stability of Feature Selectors: A Case Study with Spectral Data

Authors: R.Guzman-Martinez, Oscar Garcia-Olalla, R.Alaiz-Rodriguez

Abstract:

Feature selection plays an important role in applications with high dimensional data. The assessment of the stability of feature selection/ranking algorithms becomes an important issue when the dataset is small and the aim is to gain insight into the underlying process by analyzing the most relevant features. In this work, we propose a graphical approach that enables to analyze the similarity between feature ranking techniques as well as their individual stability. Moreover, it works with whatever stability metric (Canberra distance, Spearman's rank correlation coefficient, Kuncheva's stability index,...). We illustrate this visualization technique evaluating the stability of several feature selection techniques on a spectral binary dataset. Experimental results with a neural-based classifier show that stability and ranking quality may not be linked together and both issues have to be studied jointly in order to offer answers to the domain experts.

Keywords: Feature Selection Stability, Spectral data, Data visualization

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2543 Feasibility of Risk Assessment for Type 2 Diabetes in Community Pharmacies Using Two Different Approaches: A Pilot Study in Thailand

Authors: Thitaporn Thoopputra, Tipaporn Pongmesa, Shuchuen Li

Abstract:

Aims: To evaluate the application of non-invasive diabetes risk assessment tool in community pharmacy setting. Methods: Thai diabetes risk score was applied to assess individuals at risk of developing type 2 diabetes. Interactive computer-based risk screening (IT) and paper-based risk screening (PT) tools were applied. Participants aged over 25 years with no known diabetes were recruited in six participating pharmacies. Results: A total of 187 clients, mean aged (+SD) was 48.6 (+10.9) years. 35% were at high risk. The mean value of willingness-to-pay for the service fee in IT group was significantly higher than PT group (p=0.013). No significant difference observed for the satisfaction between groups. Conclusions: Non-invasive risk assessment tool, whether paper-based or computerized-based can be applied in community pharmacy to support the enhancing role of pharmacists in chronic disease management. Long term follow up is needed to determine the impact of its application in clinical, humanistic and economic outcomes.

Keywords: Community pharmacy, intervention, prevention, risk assessment, type 2 diabetes.

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2542 Efficient Tuning Parameter Selection by Cross-Validated Score in High Dimensional Models

Authors: Yoonsuh Jung

Abstract:

As DNA microarray data contain relatively small sample size compared to the number of genes, high dimensional models are often employed. In high dimensional models, the selection of tuning parameter (or, penalty parameter) is often one of the crucial parts of the modeling. Cross-validation is one of the most common methods for the tuning parameter selection, which selects a parameter value with the smallest cross-validated score. However, selecting a single value as an ‘optimal’ value for the parameter can be very unstable due to the sampling variation since the sample sizes of microarray data are often small. Our approach is to choose multiple candidates of tuning parameter first, then average the candidates with different weights depending on their performance. The additional step of estimating the weights and averaging the candidates rarely increase the computational cost, while it can considerably improve the traditional cross-validation. We show that the selected value from the suggested methods often lead to stable parameter selection as well as improved detection of significant genetic variables compared to the tradition cross-validation via real data and simulated data sets.

Keywords: Cross Validation, Parameter Averaging, Parameter Selection, Regularization Parameter Search.

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2541 A Hybridized Competency-Based Teacher Candidate Selection System

Authors: R. Ramli, M. I. Ghazali, H. Ibrahim, M. M. Kasim, F. M. Kamal, S.Vikneswari

Abstract:

Teachers form the backbone of any educational system, hence selecting qualified candidates is very crucial. In Malaysia, the decision making in the selection process involves a few stages: Initial filtering through academic achievement, taking entry examination and going through an interview session. The last stage is the most challenging since it highly depends on human judgment. Therefore, this study sought to identify the selection criteria for teacher candidates that form the basis for an efficient multi-criteria teacher-candidate selection model for that last stage. The relevant criteria were determined from the literature and also based on expert input that is those who were involved in interviewing teacher candidates from a public university offering the formal training program. There are three main competency criteria that were identified which are content of knowledge, communication skills and personality. Further, each main criterion was divided into a few subcriteria. The Analytical Hierarchy Process (AHP) technique was employed to allocate weights for the criteria and later, integrated a Simple Weighted Average (SWA) scoring approach to develop the selection model. Subsequently, a web-based Decision Support System was developed to assist in the process of selecting the qualified teacher candidates. The Teacher-Candidate Selection (TeCaS) system is able to assist the panel of interviewers during the selection process which involves a large amount of complex qualitative judgments.

Keywords: Analytic Hierarchy Process, Simple Weighted Average, Decision Support System, Multi-criteria decision making problem.

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2540 The Cost and Benefit on the Investment in Safety and Health of the Enterprises in Thailand

Authors: Charawee Butbumrung

Abstract:

The purpose of this study is to evaluate the monetary worthiness of investment and the usefulness of risk estimation as a tool employed by a production section of an electronic factory. This study employed the case study of accidents occurring in production areas. Data is collected from interviews with six production of safety coordinators and collect the information from the relevant section. The study will present the ratio of benefits compared with the operation costs for investment. The result showed that it is worthwhile for investment with the safety measures. In addition, the organizations must be able to analyze the causes of accidents about the benefits of investing in protective working process. They also need to quickly provide the manual for the staff to learn how to protect themselves from accidents and how to use all of the safety equipment.

Keywords: Cost and benefit, enterprises in Thailand, investment in safety and health, risk estimation.

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2539 Information Security Risk in Financial Institutions

Authors: James A. Nelson

Abstract:

The history of technology and banking is examined as it relates to risk and technological determinism. It is proposed that the services that banks offer are determined by technology and that banks must adopt new technologies to be competitive. The adoption of technologies paradoxically forces the adoption of other new technologies to protect the bank from the increased risk of technology. This cycle will lead to bank examiners and regulators to focus on human behavior, not on the ever changing technology.

Keywords: Banking, information security, risk, technologicaldeterminism.

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2538 Investigation Wintering And Breeding Habitat Selection by Asiatic Houbara Bustard (Chlamydotis macqueenii ) In Central Steppe of Iran

Authors: S. Aghainajafi Zadeh, M.R. Hemami., F. Heydari

Abstract:

Asiatic Houbara ( Chlamydotis macqueenii ) is a flagship and vulnerable species. In-situ conservation of this threatened species demands for knowledge of its habitat selection. The aim of this study was to determine habitat variables influencing birds wintering and breeding selection in semi- arid central Iran. Habitat features of the detected nest and pellet sites were compared with paired and random plots by quantifying a number of habitat variables. In wintering habitat use at micro scale houbara selected sites where vegetation cover was significantly lower compard to control sites( p< 0.001). Areas with low number of larger plant species (p=0.03) that were not too close to a vegetation patch(p<0.001) were selected for breeding habitat.

Keywords: Asiatic houbara bustard, Habitat selection, Nest, pellet.

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2537 A New Framework for Evaluation and Prioritization of Suppliers using a Hierarchical Fuzzy TOPSIS

Authors: Mohammad Taghi Taghavifard, Danial Mirheydari

Abstract:

This paper suggests an algorithm for the evaluation and selection of suppliers. At the beginning, all the needed materials and services used by the organization were identified and categorized with regard to their nature by ABC method. Afterwards, in order to reduce risk factors and maximize the organization's profit, purchase strategies were determined. Then, appropriate criteria were identified for primary evaluation of suppliers applying to the organization. The output of this stage was a list of suppliers qualified by the organization to participate in its tenders. Subsequently, considering a material in particular, appropriate criteria on the ordering of the mentioned material were determined, taking into account the particular materials' specifications as well as the organization's needs. Finally, for the purpose of validation and verification of the proposed model, it was applied to Mobarakeh Steel Company (MSC), the qualified suppliers of this Company are ranked by the means of a Hierarchical Fuzzy TOPSIS method. The obtained results show that the proposed algorithm is quite effective, efficient and easy to apply.

Keywords: ABC analysis, Hierarchical Fuzzy TOPSIS, Primary supplier evaluation, Purchasing strategy, supplier selection

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2536 Correlation-based Feature Selection using Ant Colony Optimization

Authors: M. Sadeghzadeh, M. Teshnehlab

Abstract:

Feature selection has recently been the subject of intensive research in data mining, specially for datasets with a large number of attributes. Recent work has shown that feature selection can have a positive effect on the performance of machine learning algorithms. The success of many learning algorithms in their attempts to construct models of data, hinges on the reliable identification of a small set of highly predictive attributes. The inclusion of irrelevant, redundant and noisy attributes in the model building process phase can result in poor predictive performance and increased computation. In this paper, a novel feature search procedure that utilizes the Ant Colony Optimization (ACO) is presented. The ACO is a metaheuristic inspired by the behavior of real ants in their search for the shortest paths to food sources. It looks for optimal solutions by considering both local heuristics and previous knowledge. When applied to two different classification problems, the proposed algorithm achieved very promising results.

Keywords: Ant colony optimization, Classification, Datamining, Feature selection.

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2535 Security Risk Analysis Based on the Policy Formalization and the Modeling of Big Systems

Authors: Luc Cessieux, French Navy, Adrien Derock, DCNS/IMATH

Abstract:

Security risk models have been successful in estimating the likelihood of attack for simple security threats. However, modeling complex system and their security risk is even a challenge. Many methods have been proposed to face this problem. Often difficult to manipulate, and not enough all-embracing they are not as famous as they should with administrators and deciders. We propose in this paper a new tool to model big systems on purpose. The software, takes into account attack threats and security strength.

Keywords: Security, risk management, threat, modelization.

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2534 Logistics Information and Customer Service

Authors: Š. Čemerková, M. Wilczková

Abstract:

The paper deals with the importance of information flow for providing of defined level of customer service in the firms. Setting of the criteria for the selection and implementation of logistics information system is a prerequisite for ensuring of the flow of information in firms. The decision on the selection and implementation of logistics information system is linked to the investment costs and operating costs, which are included in the total logistics costs. The article also deals with the conclusions of the research focused on the logistics information system selection in companies in the Czech Republic.

Keywords: Customer service, information system, logistics, research.

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2533 Balanced Scorecard (BSC) Usage and Financial Performance of Branches in Jordanian Banking Industry

Authors: Hamzah Hussein Al-mawali, Yuserrie Zainuddin, Noor Nasir Kader Ali

Abstract:

The purpose of this paper is to contribute to the body of knowledge in the area of management accounting, particularly performance measurement systems within the BSC framework, by investigating empirically the extent of multiple performance measures usage and their effects on the financial performance of Jordanian banks in the branches level. Nevertheless, the result of this study shows that the non-financial measures usages, particularly, customer oriented indicators and product/ service oriented indicators, appears to be important as it enhances firm performance. Remarkably, the findings reveal that there is positive relationship between the usages of multiple performance measures via overall BSC measures and financial performance in the branches level.

Keywords: Performance measurements systems, BalancedScorecard, Jordan.

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2532 Risk Classification of SMEs by Early Warning Model Based on Data Mining

Authors: Nermin Ozgulbas, Ali Serhan Koyuncugil

Abstract:

One of the biggest problems of SMEs is their tendencies to financial distress because of insufficient finance background. In this study, an Early Warning System (EWS) model based on data mining for financial risk detection is presented. CHAID algorithm has been used for development of the EWS. Developed EWS can be served like a tailor made financial advisor in decision making process of the firms with its automated nature to the ones who have inadequate financial background. Besides, an application of the model implemented which covered 7,853 SMEs based on Turkish Central Bank (TCB) 2007 data. By using EWS model, 31 risk profiles, 15 risk indicators, 2 early warning signals, and 4 financial road maps has been determined for financial risk mitigation.

Keywords: Early Warning Systems, Data Mining, Financial Risk, SMEs.

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2531 Analysis of Initial Entry-Level Technology Course Impacts on STEM Major Selection

Authors: Ethan Shafer, Timothy Graziano, Jay Fisher

Abstract:

This research seeks to answer whether first-year courses at institutions of higher learning can impact STEM major selection. Unlike many universities, an entry-level technology course (often referred to as CS0) is required for all United States Military Academy (USMA) students–regardless of major–in their first year of attendance. Students at the Academy choose their major at the end of their first year of studies. Through student responses to a multi-semester survey, this paper identifies a number of factors that potentially influence STEM major selection. Student demographic data, pre-existing exposure and access to technology, perceptions of STEM subjects, and initial desire for a STEM major are captured before and after taking a CS0 course. An analysis of factors that contribute to student perception of STEM and major selection are presented. This work provides recommendations and suggestions for institutions currently providing or looking to provide CS0-like courses to their students.

Keywords: STEM major, STEM, pedagogy, digital literacy.

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2530 Feature Selection for Breast Cancer Diagnosis: A Case-Based Wrapper Approach

Authors: Mohammad Darzi, Ali AsgharLiaei, Mahdi Hosseini, HabibollahAsghari

Abstract:

This article addresses feature selection for breast cancer diagnosis. The present process contains a wrapper approach based on Genetic Algorithm (GA) and case-based reasoning (CBR). GA is used for searching the problem space to find all of the possible subsets of features and CBR is employed to estimate the evaluation result of each subset. The results of experiment show that the proposed model is comparable to the other models on Wisconsin breast cancer (WDBC) dataset.

Keywords: Case-based reasoning; Breast cancer diagnosis; Genetic algorithm; Wrapper feature selection

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2529 Gender Differences in Risk Aversion Behavior: Case Study of Saudi Arabia and Jordan

Authors: Razan Salem

Abstract:

Men and women have different approaches towards investing, both in terms of strategies and risk attitudes. This study aims to focus mainly on investigating the financial risk behaviors of Arab women investors and to examine the financial risk tolerance levels of Arab women relative to Arab men investors. Using survey data on 547 Arab men and women investors, the results of Wilcoxon Signed-Rank (One-Sample) test Mann-Whitney U test reveal that Arab women are risk-averse investors and have lower financial risk tolerance levels relative to Arab men. Such findings can be explained by the fact of women's nature and lower investment literacy levels. Further, the current political uncertainty in the Arab region may be considered as another explanation of Arab women’s risk aversion behavior. The study's findings support the existing literature by validating the stereotype of “women are more risk-averse than men” in the Arab region. Overall, when it comes to investment and financial behaviors, women around the world behave similarly.

Keywords: Arab region, financial risk behavior, gender differences, women investors.

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2528 Combined Safety and Cybersecurity Risk Assessment for Intelligent Distributed Grids

Authors: Anders Thorsèn, Behrooz Sangchoolie, Peter Folkesson, Ted Strandberg

Abstract:

As more parts of the power grid become connected to the internet, the risk of cyberattacks increases. To identify the cybersecurity threats and subsequently reduce vulnerabilities, the common practice is to carry out a cybersecurity risk assessment. For safety classified systems and products, there is also a need for safety risk assessments in addition to the cybersecurity risk assessment to identify and reduce safety risks. These two risk assessments are usually done separately, but since cybersecurity and functional safety are often related, a more comprehensive method covering both aspects is needed. Some work addressing this has been done for specific domains like the automotive domain, but more general methods suitable for, e.g., Intelligent Distributed Grids, are still missing. One such method from the automotive domain is the Security-Aware Hazard Analysis and Risk Assessment (SAHARA) method that combines safety and cybersecurity risk assessments. This paper presents an approach where the SAHARA method has been modified to be more suitable for larger distributed systems. The adapted SAHARA method has a more general risk assessment approach than the original SAHARA. The proposed method has been successfully applied on two use cases of an intelligent distributed grid.

Keywords: Intelligent distribution grids, threat analysis, risk assessment, safety, cybersecurity.

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2527 Statistical Analysis-Driven Risk Assessment of Criteria Air Pollutants: A Sulfur Dioxide Case Study

Authors: Ehsan Bashiri

Abstract:

A 7-step method (with 25 sub-steps) to assess risk of air pollutants is introduced. These steps are: pre-considerations, sampling, statistical analysis, exposure matrix and likelihood, doseresponse matrix and likelihood, total risk evaluation, and discussion of findings. All mentioned words and expressions are wellunderstood; however, almost all steps have been modified, improved, and coupled in such a way that a comprehensive method has been prepared. Accordingly, the SADRA (Statistical Analysis-Driven Risk Assessment) emphasizes extensive and ongoing application of analytical statistics in traditional risk assessment models. A Sulfur Dioxide case study validates the claim and provides a good illustration for this method.

Keywords: Criteria air pollutants, Matrix of risk, Riskassessment, Statistical analysis.

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2526 A Feasible Path Selection QoS Routing Algorithm with two Constraints in Packet Switched Networks

Authors: P.S.Prakash, S.Selvan

Abstract:

Over the past several years, there has been a considerable amount of research within the field of Quality of Service (QoS) support for distributed multimedia systems. One of the key issues in providing end-to-end QoS guarantees in packet networks is determining a feasible path that satisfies a number of QoS constraints. The problem of finding a feasible path is NPComplete if number of constraints is more than two and cannot be exactly solved in polynomial time. We proposed Feasible Path Selection Algorithm (FPSA) that addresses issues with pertain to finding a feasible path subject to delay and cost constraints and it offers higher success rate in finding feasible paths.

Keywords: feasible path, multiple constraints, path selection, QoS routing

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2525 A Hybrid Feature Selection by Resampling, Chi squared and Consistency Evaluation Techniques

Authors: Amir-Massoud Bidgoli, Mehdi Naseri Parsa

Abstract:

In this paper a combined feature selection method is proposed which takes advantages of sample domain filtering, resampling and feature subset evaluation methods to reduce dimensions of huge datasets and select reliable features. This method utilizes both feature space and sample domain to improve the process of feature selection and uses a combination of Chi squared with Consistency attribute evaluation methods to seek reliable features. This method consists of two phases. The first phase filters and resamples the sample domain and the second phase adopts a hybrid procedure to find the optimal feature space by applying Chi squared, Consistency subset evaluation methods and genetic search. Experiments on various sized datasets from UCI Repository of Machine Learning databases show that the performance of five classifiers (Naïve Bayes, Logistic, Multilayer Perceptron, Best First Decision Tree and JRIP) improves simultaneously and the classification error for these classifiers decreases considerably. The experiments also show that this method outperforms other feature selection methods.

Keywords: feature selection, resampling, reliable features, Consistency Subset Evaluation.

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2524 Genetic Algorithms and Kernel Matrix-based Criteria Combined Approach to Perform Feature and Model Selection for Support Vector Machines

Authors: A. Perolini

Abstract:

Feature and model selection are in the center of attention of many researches because of their impact on classifiers- performance. Both selections are usually performed separately but recent developments suggest using a combined GA-SVM approach to perform them simultaneously. This approach improves the performance of the classifier identifying the best subset of variables and the optimal parameters- values. Although GA-SVM is an effective method it is computationally expensive, thus a rough method can be considered. The paper investigates a joined approach of Genetic Algorithm and kernel matrix criteria to perform simultaneously feature and model selection for SVM classification problem. The purpose of this research is to improve the classification performance of SVM through an efficient approach, the Kernel Matrix Genetic Algorithm method (KMGA).

Keywords: Feature and model selection, Genetic Algorithms, Support Vector Machines, kernel matrix.

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2523 Residential Self-Selection and Its Effects on Urban Commute Travels in Iranian Cities Compared to US, UK, and Germany

Authors: Houshmand E. Masoumi

Abstract:

Residential self-selection has gained increasing attention in the Western travel behavior research during the past decade. Many studies in the US, UK, and Germany conclude that the role of individuals’ residential location choice on commute travel behavior is more important than that of the built environment or at least it has considerable effects. However the effectiveness of location choice in many countries and cultures like Iran is unclear. This study examines the self-selections in two neighborhoods in Tehran. As a part of a research about the influences of land use on travel behavior information about people’s location preferences was collected by direct questioning. The findings show that the main reasons for selecting the location of residential units are related to socio-economic factors such as rise of house price and affordability of house prices. Transportation has little impacts on location decisions. Moreover, residential self-selection accounts for only 3 to 7.5 percent of the pedestrian, PT, and car trips.

Keywords: Residential self-selection, Tehran, travel behavior, urban transportation.

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2522 Overview of Risk Management in Electricity Markets Using Financial Derivatives

Authors: Aparna Viswanath

Abstract:

Electricity spot prices are highly volatile under optimal generation capacity scenarios due to factors such as nonstorability of electricity, peak demand at certain periods, generator outages, fuel uncertainty for renewable energy generators, huge investments and time needed for generation capacity expansion etc. As a result market participants are exposed to price and volume risk, which has led to the development of risk management practices. This paper provides an overview of risk management practices by market participants in electricity markets using financial derivatives.

Keywords: Financial Derivatives, Forward, Futures, Options, Risk Management.

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2521 Morphological Parameters and Selection of Turkish Edible Seed Pumpkins (Cucurbita pepo L.) Germplasm

Authors: Onder Turkmen, Musa Seymen, Sali Fidan, Mustafa Paksoy

Abstract:

There is a requirement for registered edible seed pumpkin suitable for eating in Turkey. A total of 81 genotypes collected from the researchers in 2005 originated from Eskisehir, Konya, Nevsehir, Tekirdag, Sakarya, Kayseri and Kirsehir provinces were utilized. The used genetic materials were brought to S5 generation by the research groups among 2006 and 2010 years. In this research, S5 stage reached in the genotype given some of the morphological features, and selection of promising genotypes generated scale were made. Results showed that the A-1 (420), A-7 (410), A-8 (420), A-32 (420), B-17 (410), B-24 (410), B-25 (420), B-33 (400), C-24 (420), C-25 (410), C-26 (410) and C-30 (420) genotypes are expected to be promising varieties.

Keywords: Candidate cultivar, edible seed pumpkin, morphologic parameters, selection.

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2520 Financial Regulations in the Process of Global Financial Crisis and Macroeconomics Impact of Basel III

Authors: M. Okan Tasar

Abstract:

Basel III (or the Third Basel Accord) is a global regulatory standard on bank capital adequacy, stress testing and market liquidity risk agreed upon by the members of the Basel Committee on Banking Supervision in 2010-2011, and scheduled to be introduced from 2013 until 2018. Basel III is a comprehensive set of reform measures. These measures aim to; (1) improve the banking sector-s ability to absorb shocks arising from financial and economic stress, whatever the source, (2) improve risk management and governance, (3) strengthen banks- transparency and disclosures. Similarly the reform target; (1) bank level or micro-prudential, regulation, which will help raise the resilience of individual banking institutions to periods of stress. (2) Macro-prudential regulations, system wide risk that can build up across the banking sector as well as the pro-cyclical implication of these risks over time. These two approaches to supervision are complementary as greater resilience at the individual bank level reduces the risk system wide shocks. Macroeconomic impact of Basel III; OECD estimates that the medium-term impact of Basel III implementation on GDP growth is in the range -0,05 percent to -0,15 percent per year. On the other hand economic output is mainly affected by an increase in bank lending spreads as banks pass a rise in banking funding costs, due to higher capital requirements, to their customers. Consequently the estimated effects on GDP growth assume no active response from monetary policy. Basel III impact on economic output could be offset by a reduction (or delayed increase) in monetary policy rates by about 30 to 80 basis points. The aim of this paper is to create a framework based on the recent regulations in order to prevent financial crises. Thus the need to overcome the global financial crisis will contribute to financial crises that may occur in the future periods. In the first part of the paper, the effects of the global crisis on the banking system examine the concept of financial regulations. In the second part; especially in the financial regulations and Basel III are analyzed. The last section in this paper explored the possible consequences of the macroeconomic impacts of Basel III.

Keywords: Banking Systems, Basel III, Financial regulation, Global Financial Crisis.

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