Search results for: loss models
3264 Pleurotus Ostreatus for Durability Test of Rubber and Sengon Woods using Indonesian National Standard and Japanese Standard Methods
Authors: Elis N. Herliyana , Kunio Tsunoda, Yusuf S. Hadi, Arinana, Dewi A. Natalia
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This study aims to determine the level of resistance of Hevea brasiliensis and Paraserianthes falcataria (synonym: Falcataria molucana) against wood rot fungi Pleurotus ostreatus based on Indonesian standard SNI 01.7207-2006 and Japanese standard JIS K 1571-2004. The variables measured were visual appearance and weight loss percentage of wood based on longitudinal and cross section fiber directions of rubber wood and sengon wood. Measurement of oven dry weight loss of wood samples performed after 12 weeks incubation. Replication performed was 10 times at each treatment combination. The results based on SNI 01.7207-2006, weight loss value of H. brasiliensis and P. falcataria wood with fiber direction longitudinal were 23,12 and 22,25% respectively and cross section were 20,77 and 18,76% respectively, and all were classified to resistance class IV (no resistance). The results based on JIS K 1571-2004, weight loss value of both woods with fiber direction cross section were 10,95 and 14,20% respectively.
Keywords: H. brasiliensis wood, Natural durability, P. falcataria wood, P. ostreatus.
Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 30713263 Simulating and Forecasting Qualitative Marcoeconomic Models Using Rule-Based Fuzzy Cognitive Maps
Authors: Spiros Mazarakis, George Matzavinos, Peter P. Groumpos
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Economic models are complex dynamic systems with a lot of uncertainties and fuzzy data. Conventional modeling approaches using well known methods and techniques cannot provide realistic and satisfactory answers to today-s challenging economic problems. Qualitative modeling using fuzzy logic and intelligent system theories can be used to model macroeconomic models. Fuzzy Cognitive maps (FCM) is a new method been used to model the dynamic behavior of complex systems. For the first time FCMs and the Mamdani Model of Intelligent control is used to model macroeconomic models. This new model is referred as the Mamdani Rule-Based Fuzzy Cognitive Map (MBFCM) and provides the academic and research community with a new promising integrated advanced computational model. A new economic model is developed for a qualitative approach to Macroeconomic modeling. Fuzzy Controllers for such models are designed. Simulation results for an economic scenario are provided and extensively discussed
Keywords: Macroeconomic Models, Mamdani Rule Based- FCMs(MBFCMs), Qualitative and Dynamics System, Simulation.
Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 19023262 Limitation Imposed by Polarization-Dependent Loss on a Fiber Optic Communication System
Authors: Farhan Hussain, M.S.Islam
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Analytically the effect of polarization dependent loss on a high speed fiber optic communication link has been investigated. PDL and the signal's incoming state of polarization (SOP) have a significant co-relation between them and their various combinations produces different effects on the system behavior which has been inspected. Pauli's spin operator and PDL parameters are combined together to observe the attenuation effect induced by PDL in a link containing multiple PDL elements. It is found that in the presence of PDL the Q-factor and BER at the receiver undergoes fluctuation causing the system to be unstable and results show that it is mainly due to optical-signal-to-parallel-noise ratio (OSNItpar) that these parameters fluctuate. Generally the Q-factor, BER deteriorates as the value of average PDL in the link increases except for depolarized light for which the system parameters improves when PDL increases.Keywords: Bit Error Rate (BER), Optical-signal-to-noise ratio (OSNR), Polarization-dependent loss (PDL), State of polarization (SOP).
Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 17253261 Some Solid Transportation Models with Crisp and Rough Costs
Authors: Pradip Kundu, Samarjit Kar, Manoranjan Maiti
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In this paper, some practical solid transportation models are formulated considering per trip capacity of each type of conveyances with crisp and rough unit transportation costs. This is applicable for the system in which full vehicles, e.g. trucks, rail coaches are to be booked for transportation of products so that transportation cost is determined on the full of the conveyances. The models with unit transportation costs as rough variables are transformed into deterministic forms using rough chance constrained programming with the help of trust measure. Numerical examples are provided to illustrate the proposed models in crisp environment as well as with unit transportation costs as rough variables.
Keywords: Solid transportation problem, Rough set, Rough variable, Trust measure.
Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 26223260 Soil-Structure Interaction Models for the Reinforced Foundation System: A State-of-the-Art Review
Authors: Ashwini V. Chavan, Sukhanand S. Bhosale
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Challenges of weak soil subgrade are often resolved either by stabilization or reinforcing it. However, it is also practiced to reinforce the granular fill to improve the load-settlement behavior of it over weak soil strata. The inclusion of reinforcement in the engineered granular fill provided a new impetus for the development of enhanced Soil-Structure Interaction (SSI) models, also known as mechanical foundation models or lumped parameter models. Several researchers have been working in this direction to understand the mechanism of granular fill-reinforcement interaction and the response of weak soil under the application of load. These models have been developed by extending available SSI models such as the Winkler Model, Pasternak Model, Hetenyi Model, Kerr Model etc., and are helpful to visualize the load-settlement behavior of a physical system through 1-D and 2-D analysis considering beam and plate resting on the foundation, respectively. Based on the literature survey, these models are categorized as ‘Reinforced Pasternak Model,’ ‘Double Beam Model,’ ‘Reinforced Timoshenko Beam Model,’ and ‘Reinforced Kerr Model’. The present work reviews the past 30+ years of research in the field of SSI models for reinforced foundation systems, presenting the conceptual development of these models systematically and discussing their limitations. A flow-chart showing procedure for compution of deformation and mobilized tension is also incorporated in the paper. Special efforts are taken to tabulate the parameters and their significance in the load-settlement analysis, which may be helpful in future studies for the comparison and enhancement of results and findings of physical models.
Keywords: geosynthetics, mathematical modeling, reinforced foundation, soil-structure interaction, ground improvement, soft soil
Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 6533259 Seismic Performance Assessment of Pre-70 RC Frame Buildings with FEMA P-58
Authors: D. Cardone
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Past earthquakes have shown that seismic events may incur large economic losses in buildings. FEMA P-58 provides engineers a practical tool for the performance seismic assessment of buildings. In this study, FEMA P-58 is applied to two typical Italian pre-1970 reinforced concrete frame buildings, characterized by plain rebars as steel reinforcement and masonry infills and partitions. Given that suitable tools for these buildings are missing in FEMA P- 58, specific fragility curves and loss functions are first developed. Next, building performance is evaluated following a time-based assessment approach. Finally, expected annual losses for the selected buildings are derived and compared with past applications to old RC frame buildings representative of the US building stock.Keywords: FEMA P-58, RC frame buildings, plain rebars, masonry infills, fragility functions, loss functions, expected annual loss.
Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 19273258 Low-Cost and Highly Accurate Motion Models for Three-Dimensional Local Landmark-based Autonomous Navigation
Authors: Gheorghe Galben, Daniel N. Aloi
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Recently, the Spherical Motion Models (SMM-s) have been introduced [1]. These new models have been developed for 3D local landmark-base Autonomous Navigation (AN). This paper is revealing new arguments and experimental results to support the SMM-s characteristics. The accuracy and the robustness in performing a specific task are the main concerns of the new investigations. To analyze their performances of the SMM-s, the most powerful tools of estimation theory, the extended Kalman filter (EKF) and unscented Kalman filter (UKF), which give the best estimations in noisy environments, have been employed. The Monte Carlo validation implementations used to test the stability and robustness of the models have been employed as well.
Keywords: Autonomous navigation, extended kalman filter, unscented kalman filter, localization algorithms.
Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 13113257 Mixtures of Monotone Networks for Prediction
Authors: Marina Velikova, Hennie Daniels, Ad Feelders
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In many data mining applications, it is a priori known that the target function should satisfy certain constraints imposed by, for example, economic theory or a human-decision maker. In this paper we consider partially monotone prediction problems, where the target variable depends monotonically on some of the input variables but not on all. We propose a novel method to construct prediction models, where monotone dependences with respect to some of the input variables are preserved by virtue of construction. Our method belongs to the class of mixture models. The basic idea is to convolute monotone neural networks with weight (kernel) functions to make predictions. By using simulation and real case studies, we demonstrate the application of our method. To obtain sound assessment for the performance of our approach, we use standard neural networks with weight decay and partially monotone linear models as benchmark methods for comparison. The results show that our approach outperforms partially monotone linear models in terms of accuracy. Furthermore, the incorporation of partial monotonicity constraints not only leads to models that are in accordance with the decision maker's expertise, but also reduces considerably the model variance in comparison to standard neural networks with weight decay.Keywords: mixture models, monotone neural networks, partially monotone models, partially monotone problems.
Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 12473256 Analyzing Data on Breastfeeding Using Dispersed Statistical Models
Authors: Naushad Mamode Khan, Cheika Jahangeer, Maleika Heenaye-Mamode Khan
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Exclusive breastfeeding is the feeding of a baby on no other milk apart from breast milk. Exclusive breastfeeding during the first 6 months of life is very important as it supports optimal growth and development during infancy and reduces the risk of obliterating diseases and problems. Moreover, it helps to reduce the incidence and/or severity of diarrhea, lower respiratory infection and urinary tract infection. In this paper, we make a survey of the factors that influence exclusive breastfeeding and use two dispersed statistical models to analyze data. The models are the Generalized Poisson regression model and the Com-Poisson regression models.
Keywords: Exclusive breastfeeding, regression model, generalized poisson, com-poisson.
Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 15633255 Zero Truncated Strict Arcsine Model
Authors: Y. N. Phang, E. F. Loh
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The zero truncated model is usually used in modeling count data without zero. It is the opposite of zero inflated model. Zero truncated Poisson and zero truncated negative binomial models are discussed and used by some researchers in analyzing the abundance of rare species and hospital stay. Zero truncated models are used as the base in developing hurdle models. In this study, we developed a new model, the zero truncated strict arcsine model, which can be used as an alternative model in modeling count data without zero and with extra variation. Two simulated and one real life data sets are used and fitted into this developed model. The results show that the model provides a good fit to the data. Maximum likelihood estimation method is used in estimating the parameters.
Keywords: Hurdle models, maximum likelihood estimation method, positive count data.
Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 18573254 Analysis and Design of a Novel Active Soft Switched Phase-Shifted Full Bridge Converter
Authors: Naga Brahmendra Yadav Gorla, Dr. Lakshmi Narasamma N
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This paper proposes an active soft-switching circuit for bridge converters aiming to improve the power conversion efficiency. The proposed circuit achieves loss-less switching for both main and auxiliary switches without increasing the main switch current/voltage rating. A winding coupled to the primary of power transformer ensures ZCS for the auxiliary switches during their turn-off. A 350 W, 100 kHz phase shifted full bridge (PSFB) converter is built to validate the analysis and design. Theoretical loss calculations for proposed circuit is presented. The proposed circuit is compared with passive soft switched PSFB in terms of efficiency and loss in duty cycle.Keywords: soft switching, passive soft switching, ZVS, ZCS, PSFB.
Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 27233253 AnQL: A Query Language for Annotation Documents
Authors: Neerja Bhatnagar, Ben A. Juliano, Renee S. Renner
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This paper presents data annotation models at five levels of granularity (database, relation, column, tuple, and cell) of relational data to address the problem of unsuitability of most relational databases to express annotations. These models do not require any structural and schematic changes to the underlying database. These models are also flexible, extensible, customizable, database-neutral, and platform-independent. This paper also presents an SQL-like query language, named Annotation Query Language (AnQL), to query annotation documents. AnQL is simple to understand and exploits the already-existent wide knowledge and skill set of SQL.
Keywords: Annotation query language, data annotations, data annotation models, semantic data annotations.
Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 18473252 Volatility Switching between Two Regimes
Authors: Josip Visković, Josip Arnerić, Ante Rozga
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Based on the fact that volatility is time varying in high frequency data and that periods of high volatility tend to cluster, the most successful and popular models in modeling time varying volatility are GARCH type models. When financial returns exhibit sudden jumps that are due to structural breaks, standard GARCH models show high volatility persistence, i.e. integrated behavior of the conditional variance. In such situations models in which the parameters are allowed to change over time are more appropriate. This paper compares different GARCH models in terms of their ability to describe structural changes in returns caused by financial crisis at stock markets of six selected central and east European countries. The empirical analysis demonstrates that Markov regime switching GARCH model resolves the problem of excessive persistence and outperforms uni-regime GARCH models in forecasting volatility when sudden switching occurs in response to financial crisis.
Keywords: Central and east European countries, financial crisis, Markov switching GARCH model, transition probabilities.
Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 25213251 ANN Models for Microstrip Line Synthesis and Analysis
Authors: Dr.K.Sri Rama Krishna, J.Lakshmi Narayana, Dr.L.Pratap Reddy
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Microstrip lines, widely used for good reason, are broadband in frequency and provide circuits that are compact and light in weight. They are generally economical to produce since they are readily adaptable to hybrid and monolithic integrated circuit (IC) fabrication technologies at RF and microwave frequencies. Although, the existing EM simulation models used for the synthesis and analysis of microstrip lines are reasonably accurate, they are computationally intensive and time consuming. Neural networks recently gained attention as fast and flexible vehicles to microwave modeling, simulation and optimization. After learning and abstracting from microwave data, through a process called training, neural network models are used during microwave design to provide instant answers to the task learned.This paper presents simple and accurate ANN models for the synthesis and analysis of Microstrip lines to more accurately compute the characteristic parameters and the physical dimensions respectively for the required design specifications.Keywords: Neural Models, Algorithms, Microstrip Lines, Analysis, Synthesis
Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 21513250 Optimal Placement of DG in Distribution System to Mitigate Power Quality Disturbances
Authors: G.V.K Murthy, S. Sivanagaraju, S. Satyanarayana, B. Hanumantha Rao
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Distributed Generation (DG) systems are considered an integral part in future distribution system planning. Appropriate size and location of distributed generation plays a significant role in minimizing power losses in distribution systems. Among the benefits of distributed generation is the reduction in active power losses, which can improve the system performance, reliability and power quality. In this paper, Artificial Bee Colony (ABC) algorithm is proposed to determine the optimal DG-unit size and location by loss sensitivity index in order to minimize the real power loss, total harmonic distortion (THD) and voltage sag index improvement. Simulation study is conducted on 69-bus radial test system to verify the efficacy of the proposed method.
Keywords: Distributed generation, artificial bee colony method, loss reduction, radial distribution network.
Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 28593249 Minimization of Switching Losses in Cascaded Multilevel Inverters Using Efficient Sequential Switching Hybrid-Modulation Techniques
Authors: P. Satish Kumar, K. Ramakrishna, Ch. Lokeshwar Reddy, G. Sridhar
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This paper presents two different sequential switching hybrid-modulation strategies and implemented for cascaded multilevel inverters. Hybrid modulation strategies represent the combinations of Fundamental-frequency pulse width modulation (FFPWM) and Multilevel sinusoidal-modulation (MSPWM) strategies, and are designed for performance of the well-known Alternative Phase opposition disposition (APOD), Phase shifted carrier (PSC). The main characteristics of these modulations are the reduction of switching losses with good harmonic performance, balanced power loss dissipation among the devices with in a cell, and among the series-connected cells. The feasibility of these modulations is verified through spectral analysis, power loss analysis and simulation.
Keywords: Cascaded multilevel inverters, hybrid modulation, power loss analysis, pulse width modulation.
Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 29803248 An Owl Ontology for Commonkads Template Knowledge Models
Authors: B. A. Gobin, R. K. Subramanian
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This paper gives an overview of how an OWL ontology has been created to represent template knowledge models defined in CML that are provided by CommonKADS. CommonKADS is a mature knowledge engineering methodology which proposes the use of template knowledge model for knowledge modelling. The aim of developing this ontology is to present the template knowledge model in a knowledge representation language that can be easily understood and shared in the knowledge engineering community. Hence OWL is used as it has become a standard for ontology and also it already has user friendly tools for viewing and editing.Keywords: Ontology, OWL, Template Knowledge Models, CommonKADS
Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 17943247 Comparison of Three Turbulence Models in Wear Prediction of Multi-Size Particulate Flow through Rotating Channel
Authors: Pankaj K. Gupta, Krishnan V. Pagalthivarthi
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The present work compares the performance of three turbulence modeling approach (based on the two-equation k -ε model) in predicting erosive wear in multi-size dense slurry flow through rotating channel. All three turbulence models include rotation modification to the production term in the turbulent kineticenergy equation. The two-phase flow field obtained numerically using Galerkin finite element methodology relates the local flow velocity and concentration to the wear rate via a suitable wear model. The wear models for both sliding wear and impact wear mechanisms account for the particle size dependence. Results of predicted wear rates using the three turbulence models are compared for a large number of cases spanning such operating parameters as rotation rate, solids concentration, flow rate, particle size distribution and so forth. The root-mean-square error between FE-generated data and the correlation between maximum wear rate and the operating parameters is found less than 2.5% for all the three models.Keywords: Rotating channel, maximum wear rate, multi-sizeparticulate flow, k −ε turbulence models.
Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 17723246 Modeling of Normal and Atherosclerotic Blood Vessels using Finite Element Methods and Artificial Neural Networks
Authors: K. Kamalanand, S. Srinivasan
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Analysis of blood vessel mechanics in normal and diseased conditions is essential for disease research, medical device design and treatment planning. In this work, 3D finite element models of normal vessel and atherosclerotic vessel with 50% plaque deposition were developed. The developed models were meshed using finite number of tetrahedral elements. The developed models were simulated using actual blood pressure signals. Based on the transient analysis performed on the developed models, the parameters such as total displacement, strain energy density and entropy per unit volume were obtained. Further, the obtained parameters were used to develop artificial neural network models for analyzing normal and atherosclerotic blood vessels. In this paper, the objectives of the study, methodology and significant observations are presented.Keywords: Blood vessel, atherosclerosis, finite element model, artificial neural networks
Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 23083245 Interoperability in Component Based Software Development
Authors: M. Madiajagan, B. Vijayakumar
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The ability of information systems to operate in conjunction with each other encompassing communication protocols, hardware, software, application, and data compatibility layers. There has been considerable work in industry on the development of component interoperability models, such as CORBA, (D)COM and JavaBeans. These models are intended to reduce the complexity of software development and to facilitate reuse of off-the-shelf components. The focus of these models is syntactic interface specification, component packaging, inter-component communications, and bindings to a runtime environment. What these models lack is a consideration of architectural concerns – specifying systems of communicating components, explicitly representing loci of component interaction, and exploiting architectural styles that provide well-understood global design solutions. The development of complex business applications is now focused on an assembly of components available on a local area network or on the net. These components must be localized and identified in terms of available services and communication protocol before any request. The first part of the article introduces the base concepts of components and middleware while the following sections describe the different up-todate models of communication and interaction and the last section shows how different models can communicate among themselves.
Keywords: Interoperability, component packaging, communication technology, heterogeneous platform, component interface, middleware.
Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 27893244 Acoustic and Flow Field Analysis of a Perforated Muffler Design
Authors: Zeynep Parlar, Şengül Ari, Rıfat Yilmaz, Erdem Özdemir, Arda Kahraman
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New regulations and standards for noise emission increasingly compel the automotive firms to make some improvements about decreasing the engine noise. Nowadays, the perforated reactive mufflers which have an effective damping capability are specifically used for this purpose. New designs should be analyzed with respect to both acoustics and back pressure. In this study, a reactive perforated muffler is investigated numerically and experimentally. For an acoustical analysis, the transmission loss which is independent of sound source of the present cross flow, the perforated muffler was analyzed by COMSOL. To be able to validate the numerical results, transmission loss was measured experimentally. Back pressure was obtained based on the flow field analysis and was also compared with experimental results. Numerical results have an approximate error of 20% compared to experimental results.
Keywords: Back Pressure, Perforated Muffler, Transmission Loss.
Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 83263243 Design and Synthesis of Two Tunable Bandpass Filters Based On Varactors and Defected Ground Structure
Authors: M. Boulakroune, M. Challal, H. Louazene, S. Fentiz
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This paper presents two types of microstrip bandpass filter (BPF) at microwave frequencies. The first one is a tunable BPF using planar patch resonators based on a varactor diode. The filter is formed by a triple mode circular patch resonator with two pairs of slots, in which the varactor diodes are connected. Indeed, this filter is initially centered at 2.4 GHz; the center frequency of the tunable patch filter could be tuned up to 1.8 GHz simultaneously with the bandwidth, reaching high tuning ranges. Lossless simulations were compared to those considering the substrate dielectric, conductor losses and the equivalent electrical circuit model of the tuning element in order to assess their effects. Within these variations, simulation results showed insertion loss better than 2 dB and return loss better than 10 dB over the passband. The second structure is a BPF for ultra-wideband (UWB) applications based on multiple-mode resonator (MMR) and rectangular-shaped defected ground structure (DGS). This filter, which is compact size of 25.2 x 3.8 mm2, provides in the pass band an insertion loss of 0.57 dB and a return loss greater than 12 dB. The proposed filters presents good performances and the simulation results are in satisfactory agreement with the experimentation ones reported elsewhere.
Keywords: Defected ground structure, varactor diode, microstrip bandpass filter, multiple-mode resonator.
Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 26463242 Distributed Generator Placement for Loss Reduction and Improvement in Reliability
Authors: Priyanka Paliwal, N.P. Patidar
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Distributed Power generation has gained a lot of attention in recent times due to constraints associated with conventional power generation and new advancements in DG technologies .The need to operate the power system economically and with optimum levels of reliability has further led to an increase in interest in Distributed Generation. However it is important to place Distributed Generator on an optimum location so that the purpose of loss minimization and voltage regulation is dully served on the feeder. This paper investigates the impact of DG units installation on electric losses, reliability and voltage profile of distribution networks. In this paper, our aim would be to find optimal distributed generation allocation for loss reduction subjected to constraint of voltage regulation in distribution network. The system is further analyzed for increased levels of Reliability. Distributed Generator offers the additional advantage of increase in reliability levels as suggested by the improvements in various reliability indices such as SAIDI, CAIDI and AENS. Comparative studies are performed and related results are addressed. An analytical technique is used in order to find the optimal location of Distributed Generator. The suggested technique is programmed under MATLAB software. The results clearly indicate that DG can reduce the electrical line loss while simultaneously improving the reliability of the system.Keywords: AENS, CAIDI, Distributed Generation, lossreduction, Reliability, SAIDI
Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 31023241 Electricity Price Forecasting: A Comparative Analysis with Shallow-ANN and DNN
Authors: Fazıl Gökgöz, Fahrettin Filiz
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Electricity prices have sophisticated features such as high volatility, nonlinearity and high frequency that make forecasting quite difficult. Electricity price has a volatile and non-random character so that, it is possible to identify the patterns based on the historical data. Intelligent decision-making requires accurate price forecasting for market traders, retailers, and generation companies. So far, many shallow-ANN (artificial neural networks) models have been published in the literature and showed adequate forecasting results. During the last years, neural networks with many hidden layers, which are referred to as DNN (deep neural networks) have been using in the machine learning community. The goal of this study is to investigate electricity price forecasting performance of the shallow-ANN and DNN models for the Turkish day-ahead electricity market. The forecasting accuracy of the models has been evaluated with publicly available data from the Turkish day-ahead electricity market. Both shallow-ANN and DNN approach would give successful result in forecasting problems. Historical load, price and weather temperature data are used as the input variables for the models. The data set includes power consumption measurements gathered between January 2016 and December 2017 with one-hour resolution. In this regard, forecasting studies have been carried out comparatively with shallow-ANN and DNN models for Turkish electricity markets in the related time period. The main contribution of this study is the investigation of different shallow-ANN and DNN models in the field of electricity price forecast. All models are compared regarding their MAE (Mean Absolute Error) and MSE (Mean Square) results. DNN models give better forecasting performance compare to shallow-ANN. Best five MAE results for DNN models are 0.346, 0.372, 0.392, 0,402 and 0.409.Keywords: Deep learning, artificial neural networks, energy price forecasting, Turkey.
Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 10983240 Human Pose Estimation using Active Shape Models
Authors: Changhyuk Jang, Keechul Jung
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Human pose estimation can be executed using Active Shape Models. The existing techniques for applying to human-body research using Active Shape Models, such as human detection, primarily take the form of silhouette of human body. This technique is not able to estimate accurately for human pose to concern two arms and legs, as the silhouette of human body represents the shape as out of round. To solve this problem, we applied the human body model as stick-figure, “skeleton". The skeleton model of human body can give consideration to various shapes of human pose. To obtain effective estimation result, we applied background subtraction and deformed matching algorithm of primary Active Shape Models in the fitting process. The images which were used to make the model were 600 human bodies, and the model has 17 landmark points which indicate body junction and key features of human pose. The maximum iteration for the fitting process was 30 times and the execution time was less than .03 sec.
Keywords: Active shape models, skeleton, pose estimation.
Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 24173239 Impact of Viscous and Heat Relaxation Loss on the Critical Temperature Gradients of Thermoacoustic Stacks
Authors: Zhibin Yu, Artur J. Jaworski, Abdulrahman S. Abduljalil
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A stack with a small critical temperature gradient is desirable for a standing wave thermoacoustic engine to obtain a low onset temperature difference (the minimum temperature difference to start engine-s self-oscillation). The viscous and heat relaxation loss in the stack determines the critical temperature gradient. In this work, a dimensionless critical temperature gradient factor is obtained based on the linear thermoacoustic theory. It is indicated that the impedance determines the proportion between the viscous loss, heat relaxation losses and the power production from the heat energy. It reveals the effects of the channel dimensions, geometrical configuration and the local acoustic impedance on the critical temperature gradient in stacks. The numerical analysis shows that there exists a possible optimum combination of these parameters which leads to the lowest critical temperature gradient. Furthermore, several different geometries have been tested and compared numerically.Keywords: Critical temperature gradient, heat relaxation, stack, viscous effect.
Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 18063238 Main Control Factors of Fluid Loss in Drilling and Completion in Shunbei Oilfield by Unmanned Intervention Algorithm
Authors: Peng Zhang, Lihui Zheng, Xiangchun Wang, Xiaopan Kou
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Quantitative research on the main control factors of lost circulation has few considerations and single data source. Using Unmanned Intervention Algorithm to find the main control factors of lost circulation adopts all measurable parameters. The degree of lost circulation is characterized by the loss rate as the objective function. Geological, engineering and fluid data are used as layers, and 27 factors such as wellhead coordinates and Weight on Bit (WOB) used as dimensions. Data classification is implemented to determine function independent variables. The mathematical equation of loss rate and 27 influencing factors is established by multiple regression method, and the undetermined coefficient method is used to solve the undetermined coefficient of the equation. Only three factors in t-test are greater than the test value 40, and the F-test value is 96.557%, indicating that the correlation of the model is good. The funnel viscosity, final shear force and drilling time were selected as the main control factors by elimination method, contribution rate method and functional method. The calculated values of the two wells used for verification differ from the actual values by -3.036 m3/h and -2.374 m3/h, with errors of 7.21% and 6.35%. The influence of engineering factors on the loss rate is greater than that of funnel viscosity and final shear force, and the influence of the three factors is less than that of geological factors. The best combination of funnel viscosity, final shear force and drilling time is obtained through quantitative calculation. The minimum loss rate of lost circulation wells in Shunbei area is 10 m3/h. It can be seen that man-made main control factors can only slow down the leakage, but cannot fundamentally eliminate it. This is more in line with the characteristics of karst caves and fractures in Shunbei fault solution oil and gas reservoir.
Keywords: Drilling fluid, loss rate, main controlling factors, Unmanned Intervention Algorithm.
Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 4033237 Simulation of Reactive Distillation: Comparison of Equilibrium and Nonequilibrium Stage Models
Authors: Asfaw Gezae Daful
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In the present study, two distinctly different approaches are followed for modeling of reactive distillation column, the equilibrium stage model and the nonequilibrium stage model. These models are simulated with a computer code developed in the present study using MATLAB programming. In the equilibrium stage models, the vapor and liquid phases are assumed to be in equilibrium and allowance is made for finite reaction rates, where as in the nonequilibrium stage models simultaneous mass transfer and reaction rates are considered. These simulated model results are validated from the experimental data reported in the literature. The simulated results of equilibrium and nonequilibrium models are compared for concentration, temperature and reaction rate profiles in a reactive distillation column for Methyl Tert Butyle Ether (MTBE) production. Both the models show similar trend for the concentration, temperature and reaction rate profiles but the nonequilibrium model predictions are higher and closer to the experimental values reported in the literature.
Keywords: Reactive Distillation, Equilibrium model, Nonequilibrium model, Methyl Tert-Butyl Ether
Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 42073236 Classification of Business Models of Italian Bancassurance by Balance Sheet Indicators
Authors: Andrea Bellucci, Martina Tofi
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The aim of paper is to analyze business models of bancassurance in Italy for life business. The life insurance business is very developed in the Italian market and banks branches have 80% of the market share. Given its maturity, the life insurance market needs to consolidate its organizational form to allow for the development of non-life business, which nowadays collects few premiums but represents a great opportunity to enlarge the market share of bancassurance using its strength in the distribution channel while the market share of independent agents is decreasing. Starting with the main business model of bancassurance for life business, this paper will analyze the performances of life companies in the Italian market by balance sheet indicators and by main discriminant variables of business models. The study will observe trends from 2013 to 2015 for the Italian market by exploiting a database managed by Associazione Nazionale delle Imprese di Assicurazione (ANIA). The applied approach is based on a bottom-up analysis starting with variables and indicators to define business models’ classification. The statistical classification algorithm proposed by Ward is employed to design business models’ profiles. Results from the analysis will be a representation of the main business models built by their profile related to indicators. In that way, an unsupervised analysis is developed that has the limit of its judgmental dimension based on research opinion, but it is possible to obtain a design of effective business models.
Keywords: Balance sheet indicators, Bancassurance, business models, ward algorithm.
Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 12633235 Multi-Objective Fuzzy Model in Optimal Sitingand Sizing of DG for Loss Reduction
Authors: H. Shayeghi, B. Mohamadi
Abstract:
This paper presents a possibilistic (fuzzy) model in optimal siting and sizing of Distributed Generation (DG) for loss reduction and improve voltage profile in power distribution system. Multi-objective problem is developed in two phases. In the first one, the set of non-dominated planning solutions is obtained (with respect to the objective functions of fuzzy economic cost, and exposure) using genetic algorithm. In the second phase, one solution of the set of non-dominated solutions is selected as optimal solution, using a suitable max-min approach. This method can be determined operation-mode (PV or PQ) of DG. Because of considering load uncertainty in this paper, it can be obtained realistic results. The whole process of this method has been implemented in the MATLAB7 environment with technical and economic consideration for loss reduction and voltage profile improvement. Through numerical example the validity of the proposed method is verified.
Keywords: Fuzzy Power Flow, DG siting and sizing, LoadUncertainty, Multi-objective Possibilistic Model.
Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 1629