Search results for: spatial load forecasting.

Authors: Mochammad Dewo, Sumarsono Sudarto

Abstract:

The Exponential Triple Smoothing Algorithm approach nowadays, which is used to anticipate the export value of Indonesia's two major commodities, coal and palm oil, has a Mean Percentage Absolute Error (MAPE) value of 30-50%, which may be considered as a "reasonable" forecasting mistake. Forecasting errors of more than 30% shall have a domino effect on industrial output, as extra production adds to raw material, manufacturing and storage expenses. Whereas, reaching an "excellent" classification with an error value of less than 10% will provide new investors and exporters with confidence in the commercial development of related sectors. Industrial growth will bring out a positive impact on economic development. It can be applied for other commodities if the forecast error is less than 10%. The purpose of this project is to create a forecasting technique that can produce precise forecasting results with an error of less than 10%. This research analyzes forecasting methods such as ARIMA (Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average), ANN (Artificial Neural Network) and LSTM (Long-Short Term Memory). By providing a MAPE of 1%, this study reveals that ANN is the most successful strategy for forecasting coal and palm oil commodities in Indonesia.

Keywords: ANN, Artificial Neural Network, ARIMA, Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average, export value, forecast, LSTM, Long Short Term Memory.

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Authors: Burak Köken, Hatice D. Arslan, Bilgehan Y. Çakmak

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Analyzing the relation networks between the hospital buildings which have complex structure and distinctive spatial relationships is quite difficult. The hospital buildings which require specialty in spatial relationship solutions during design and selfinnovation through the developing technology should survive and keep giving service even after the disasters such as earthquakes. In this study, a hospital building where the load-bearing system was strengthened because of the insufficient earthquake performance and the construction of an additional building was required to meet the increasing need for space was discussed and a comparative spatial evaluation of the hospital building was made with regard to its status before the change and after the change. For this reason, spatial organizations of the building before change and after the change were analyzed by means of Space Syntax method and the effects of the change on space organization parameters were searched by applying an analytical procedure. Using Depthmap UCL software, Connectivity, Visual Mean Depth, Beta and Visual Integration analyses were conducted. Based on the data obtained after the analyses, it was seen that the relationships between spaces of the building increased after the change and the building has become more explicit and understandable for the occupants. Furthermore, it was determined according to findings of the analysis that the increase in depth causes difficulty in perceiving the spaces and the changes considering this problem generally ease spatial use.

Keywords: Architecture, hospital building, space syntax, strengthening.

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Authors: I. Falconett, K. Nagasaka

Abstract:

This study investigates the performance of radial basis function networks (RBFN) in forecasting the monthly CO2 emissions of an electric power utility. We also propose a method for input variable selection. This method is based on identifying the general relationships between groups of input candidates and the output. The effect that each input has on the forecasting error is examined by removing all inputs except the variable to be investigated from its group, calculating the networks parameter and performing the forecast. Finally, the new forecasting error is compared with the reference model. Eight input variables were identified as the most relevant, which is significantly less than our reference model with 30 input variables. The simulation results demonstrate that the model with the 8 inputs selected using the method introduced in this study performs as accurate as the reference model, while also being the most parsimonious.

Keywords: Correlation analysis, CO2 emissions forecasting, electric power utility, radial basis function networks.

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Authors: Ε. Giovanis

Abstract:

In this paper we present a Adaptive Neuro-Fuzzy System (ANFIS) with inputs the lagged dependent variable for the prediction of Gross domestic Product growth rate in six countries. We compare the results with those of Autoregressive (AR) model. We conclude that the forecasting performance of neuro-fuzzy-system in the out-of-sample period is much more superior and can be a very useful alternative tool used by the national statistical services and the banking and finance industry.

Keywords: Autoregressive model, Forecasting, Gross DomesticProduct, Neuro-Fuzzy

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Authors: Chunshien Li, Jhao-Wun Hu, Tai-Wei Chiang, Tsunghan Wu

Abstract:

Time series forecasting is an important and widely popular topic in the research of system modeling. This paper describes how to use the hybrid PSO-RLSE neuro-fuzzy learning approach to the problem of time series forecasting. The PSO algorithm is used to update the premise parameters of the proposed prediction system, and the RLSE is used to update the consequence parameters. Thanks to the hybrid learning (HL) approach for the neuro-fuzzy system, the prediction performance is excellent and the speed of learning convergence is much faster than other compared approaches. In the experiments, we use the well-known Mackey-Glass chaos time series. According to the experimental results, the prediction performance and accuracy in time series forecasting by the proposed approach is much better than other compared approaches, as shown in Table IV. Excellent prediction performance by the proposed approach has been observed.

Keywords: forecasting, hybrid learning (HL), Neuro-FuzzySystem (NFS), particle swarm optimization (PSO), recursiveleast-squares estimator (RLSE), time series

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Authors: Aleksandra Aleksandrovna Filimonova, Lev Sergeevich Kazarinov, Tatyana Aleksandrovna Barbasova

Abstract:

A method of effective planning and control of industrial facility energy consumption is offered. The method allows optimally arranging the management and full control of complex production facilities in accordance with the criteria of minimal technical and economic losses at the forecasting control. The method is based on the optimal construction of the power efficiency characteristics with the prescribed accuracy. The problem of optimal designing of the forecasting model is solved on the basis of three criteria: maximizing the weighted sum of the points of forecasting with the prescribed accuracy; the solving of the problem by the standard principles at the incomplete statistic data on the basis of minimization of the regularized function; minimizing the technical and economic losses due to the forecasting errors.

Keywords: Energy consumption, energy efficiency, energy management system, forecasting model, power efficiency characteristics.

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Authors: Ioannis P. Panapakidis, Marios N. Moschakis

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With the continuous increment of smart meter installations across the globe, the need for processing of the load data is evident. Clustering-based load profiling is built upon the utilization of unsupervised machine learning tools for the purpose of formulating the typical load curves or load profiles. The most commonly used algorithm in the load profiling literature is the K-means. While the algorithm has been successfully tested in a variety of applications, its drawback is the strong dependence in the initialization phase. This paper proposes a novel modified form of the K-means that addresses the aforementioned problem. Simulation results indicate the superiority of the proposed algorithm compared to the K-means.

Keywords: Clustering, load profiling, load modeling, machine learning, energy efficiency and quality.

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Authors: Zviad Ghadua, Biswa Bhattacharya

Abstract:

The Flash Flood Guidance (FFG) provides the rainfall amount of a given duration necessary to cause flooding. The approach is based on the development of rainfall-runoff curves, which helps us to find out the rainfall amount that would cause flooding. An alternative approach, mostly experimented with Italian Alpine catchments, is based on determining threshold discharges from past events and on finding whether or not an oncoming flood has its magnitude more than some critical discharge thresholds found beforehand. Both approaches suffer from large uncertainties in forecasting flash floods as, due to the simplistic approach followed, the same rainfall amount may or may not cause flooding. This uncertainty leads to the question whether a probabilistic model is preferable over a deterministic one in forecasting flash floods. We propose the use of a Bayesian probabilistic approach in flash flood forecasting. A prior probability of flooding is derived based on historical data. Additional information, such as antecedent moisture condition (AMC) and rainfall amount over any rainfall thresholds are used in computing the likelihood of observing these conditions given a flash flood has occurred. Finally, the posterior probability of flooding is computed using the prior probability and the likelihood. The variation of the computed posterior probability with rainfall amount and AMC presents the suitability of the approach in decision making in an uncertain environment. The methodology has been applied to the Posina basin in Italy. From the promising results obtained, we can conclude that the Bayesian approach in flash flood forecasting provides more realistic forecasting over the FFG.

Keywords: Flash flood, Bayesian, flash flood guidance, FFG, forecasting, Posina.

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Authors: Jheng-Long Wu, Pei-Chann Chang, Yi-Fang Pan

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This research focus on developing a new segmentation method for improving forecasting model which is call trend based segmentation method (TBSM). Generally, the piece-wise linear representation (PLR) can finds some of pair of trading points is well for time series data, but in the complicated stock environment it is not well for stock forecasting because of the stock has more trends of trading. If we consider the trends of trading in stock price for the trading signal which it will improve the precision of forecasting model. Therefore, a TBSM with SVR model used to detect the trading points for various stocks of Taiwanese and America under different trend tendencies. The experimental results show our trading system is more profitable and can be implemented in real time of stock market

Keywords: Trend based segmentation method, support vector machine, turning detection, stock forecasting.

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Authors: Ali M. Alakeel

Abstract:

Load balancing in distributed computer systems is the process of redistributing the work load among processors in the system to improve system performance. Most of previous research in using fuzzy logic for the purpose of load balancing has only concentrated in utilizing fuzzy logic concepts in describing processors load and tasks execution length. The responsibility of the fuzzy-based load balancing process itself, however, has not been discussed and in most reported work is assumed to be performed in a distributed fashion by all nodes in the network. This paper proposes a new fuzzy dynamic load balancing algorithm for homogenous distributed systems. The proposed algorithm utilizes fuzzy logic in dealing with inaccurate load information, making load distribution decisions, and maintaining overall system stability. In terms of control, we propose a new approach that specifies how, when, and by which node the load balancing is implemented. Our approach is called Centralized-But-Distributed (CBD).

Keywords: Dynamic load balancing, fuzzy logic, distributed systems, algorithm.

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Authors: Yang Zhang, Yuncai Liu

Abstract:

Accurately predicting non-peak traffic is crucial to daily traffic for all forecasting models. In the paper, least squares support vector machines (LS-SVMs) are investigated to solve such a practical problem. It is the first time to apply the approach and analyze the forecast performance in the domain. For comparison purpose, two parametric and two non-parametric techniques are selected because of their effectiveness proved in past research. Having good generalization ability and guaranteeing global minima, LS-SVMs perform better than the others. Providing sufficient improvement in stability and robustness reveals that the approach is practically promising.

Keywords: Parametric and Nonparametric Techniques, Non-peak Traffic Forecasting

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Authors: Huey-Kuo Chen

Abstract:

Travel demand forecasting including four travel choices, i.e., trip generation, trip distribution, modal split and traffic assignment constructs the core of transportation planning. In its current application, travel demand forecasting has associated with three important issues, i.e., interface inconsistencies among four travel choices, inefficiency of commonly used solution algorithms, and undesirable multiple path solutions. In this paper, each of the three issues is extensively elaborated. An ideal unified framework for the combined model consisting of the four travel choices and variable demand functions is also suggested. Then, a few remarks are provided in the end of the paper

Keywords: Travel choices, B algorithm, entropy maximization, dynamic traffic assignment.

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Authors: Adrian Lo

Abstract:

Since the advent of modern architecture, notions of free plan and transparency have proliferated well into current trends. The movement’s notion of a spatially homogeneous, open and limitless ‘free plan’ contrasts with the spatially heterogeneous ‘series of rooms’ defined by load bearing walls, which in turn triggered new notions of transparency created by vast expanses of glazed walls. Similarly, transparency was also dichotomized as something that was physical or optical, as well as something conceptual, akin to spatial organization. As opposed to merely accepting the duality and possible incompatibility of these dichotomies, this paper seeks to ask how can space be both literally and phenomenally transparent, as well as exhibit both homogeneous and heterogeneous qualities? This paper explores this potential destabilization or blurring of spatial phenomena by dissecting the transparent layers and volumes of a series of selected case studies to investigate how different architects have devised strategies of spatial ambiguity and interpenetration. Projects by Peter Eisenman, Sou Fujimoto, and SANAA will be discussed and analyzed to show how the superimposition of geometries and spaces achieve different conditions of layering, transparency, and interstitiality. Their particular buildings will be explored to reveal various innovative kinds of spatial interpenetration produced through the articulate relations of the elements of architecture, which challenge conventional perceptions of interior and exterior whereby visual homogeneity blurs with spatial heterogeneity. The results show how spatial conceptions such as interpenetration and transparency have the ability to subvert not only inside-outside dialectics, but could also produce multiple degrees of interiority within complex and indeterminate spatial dimensions in constant flux as well as present alternative forms of social interaction.

Keywords: interpenetration, literal and phenomenal transparency, spatial heterogeneity, visual homogeneity

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Authors: Kalum Priyanath Udagepola, Zuo Decheng, Wu Zhibo, Yang Xiaozong

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Modern spatial database management systems require a unique Spatial Access Method (SAM) in order solve complex spatial quires efficiently. In this case the spatial data structure takes a prominent place in the SAM. Inadequate data structure leads forming poor algorithmic choices and forging deficient understandings of algorithm behavior on the spatial database. A key step in developing a better semantic spatial object data structure is to quantify the performance effects of semantic and outlier detections that are not reflected in the previous tree structures (R-Tree and its variants). This paper explores a novel SSRO-Tree on SAM to the Topo-Semantic approach. The paper shows how to identify and handle the semantic spatial objects with outlier objects during page overflow/underflow, using gain/loss metrics. We introduce a new SSRO-Tree algorithm which facilitates the achievement of better performance in practice over algorithms that are superior in the R*-Tree and RO-Tree by considering selection queries.

Keywords: Outlier, semantic spatial object, spatial objects, SSRO-Tree, topo-semantic.

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Authors: Kunya Bowornchockchai

Abstract:

The objective of this research is to forecast the monthly exchange rate between Thai baht and the US dollar and to compare two forecasting methods. The methods are Box-Jenkins’ method and Holt’s method. Results show that the Box-Jenkins’ method is the most suitable method for the monthly Exchange Rate between Thai Baht and the US Dollar. The suitable forecasting model is ARIMA (1,1,0)  without constant and the forecasting equation is Y_t = Y_t-1 + 0.3691 (Y_t-1 - Y_t-2) When Y_t  is the time series data at time t, respectively.

Keywords: Box–Jenkins Method, Holt’s Method, Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE).

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Authors: Elinda Ai-Lim Lee, Kok Wai Wong, Chun Che Fung

Abstract:

The use of Virtual Reality (VR) in schools and higher education is proliferating. Due to its interactive and animated features, it is regarded as a promising technology to increase students- spatial ability. Spatial ability is assumed to have a prominent role in science and engineering domains. However, research concerning individual differences such as spatial ability in the context of VR is still at its infancy. Moreover, empirical studies that focus on the features of VR to improve spatial ability are to date rare. Thus, this paper explores the possible educational values of VR in relation to spatial ability to call for more research concerning spatial ability in the context of VR based on studies in computerbased learning. It is believed that the incorporation of state-of-the-art VR technology for educational purposes should be justified by the enhanced benefits for the target learners.

Keywords: Ability-as-compensator, ability-as-enhancer, spatialability, virtual reality.

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Authors: Fan Yang, Ye-lu Wang, Yang Zhao

Abstract:

The dynamic load allowance, as an application result of the vehicle-bridge coupled vibration theory, is an important parameter for bridge design and evaluation. Based on the coupled vehicle-bridge vibration theory, the current work establishes a full girder model of a dynamic load allowance, selects a planar five-degree-of-freedom three-axis vehicle model, solves the coupled vehicle-bridge dynamic response using the APDL language in the spatial finite element program ANSYS, selects the pivot point 2 sections as the representative of the negative moment section, and analyzes the effects of parameters such as travel speed, unevenness, vehicle frequency, span diameter, span number and forced displacement of the support on the negative moment dynamic load allowance through orthogonal tests. The influence of parameters such as vehicle speed, unevenness, vehicle frequency, span diameter, span number, and forced displacement of the support on the negative moment dynamic load allowance is analyzed by orthogonal tests, and the influence law of each influencing parameter is summarized. It is found that the effects of vehicle frequency, unevenness, and speed on the negative moment dynamic load allowance are significant, among which vehicle frequency has the greatest effect on the negative moment dynamic load allowance; the effects of span number and span diameter on the negative moment dynamic load allowance are relatively small; the effects of forced displacement of the support on the negative moment dynamic load allowance are negligible.

Keywords: Continuous T-girder bridge, dynamic load allowance, sensitivity analysis, vehicle-bridge coupling.

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Authors: Sandeep Sharma, Sarabjit Singh, Meenakshi Sharma

Abstract:

Load balancing is the process of improving the performance of a parallel and distributed system through a redistribution of load among the processors [1] [5]. In this paper we present the performance analysis of various load balancing algorithms based on different parameters, considering two typical load balancing approaches static and dynamic. The analysis indicates that static and dynamic both types of algorithm can have advancements as well as weaknesses over each other. Deciding type of algorithm to be implemented will be based on type of parallel applications to solve. The main purpose of this paper is to help in design of new algorithms in future by studying the behavior of various existing algorithms.

Keywords: Load balancing (LB), workload, distributed systems, Static Load balancing, Dynamic Load Balancing

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Authors: Hazem M. El-Bakry, Nikos Mastorakis

Abstract:

Fast forecasting of stock market prices is very important for strategic planning. In this paper, a new approach for fast forecasting of stock market prices is presented. Such algorithm uses new high speed time delay neural networks (HSTDNNs). The operation of these networks relies on performing cross correlation in the frequency domain between the input data and the input weights of neural networks. It is proved mathematically and practically that the number of computation steps required for the presented HSTDNNs is less than that needed by traditional time delay neural networks (TTDNNs). Simulation results using MATLAB confirm the theoretical computations.

Keywords: Fast Forecasting, Stock Market Prices, Time Delay NeuralNetworks, Cross Correlation, Frequency Domain.

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Authors: Tea Poklepović, Zdravka Aljinović, Branka Marasović

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Due to the importance of yield curve and its estimation it is inevitable to have valid methods for yield curve forecasting in cases when there are scarce issues of securities and/or week trade on a secondary market. Therefore in this paper, after the estimation of weekly yield curves on Croatian financial market from October 2011 to August 2012 using Nelson-Siegel and Svensson models, yield curves are forecasted using Vector autoregressive model and Neural networks. In general, it can be concluded that both forecasting methods have good prediction abilities where forecasting of yield curves based on Nelson Siegel estimation model give better results in sense of lower Mean Squared Error than forecasting based on Svensson model Also, in this case Neural networks provide slightly better results. Finally, it can be concluded that most appropriate way of yield curve prediction is Neural networks using Nelson-Siegel estimation of yield curves.

Keywords: Nelson-Siegel model, Neural networks, Svensson model, Vector autoregressive model, Yield curve.

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Authors: S. Oujdi, H. Belbachir

Abstract:

Existing methods of data mining cannot be applied on spatial data because they require spatial specificity consideration, as spatial relationships. This paper focuses on the classification with decision trees, which are one of the data mining techniques. We propose an extension of the C4.5 algorithm for spatial data, based on two different approaches Join materialization and Querying on the fly the different tables. Similar works have been done on these two main approaches, the first - Join materialization - favors the processing time in spite of memory space, whereas the second - Querying on the fly different tables- promotes memory space despite of the processing time. The modified C4.5 algorithm requires three entries tables: a target table, a neighbor table, and a spatial index join that contains the possible spatial relationship among the objects in the target table and those in the neighbor table. Thus, the proposed algorithms are applied to a spatial data pattern in the accidentology domain. A comparative study of our approach with other works of classification by spatial decision trees will be detailed.

Keywords: C4.5 Algorithm, Decision trees, S-CART, Spatial data mining.

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Authors: Meredith Stevenson, John E. Porter

Abstract:

Since the pioneering work of Zadeh, fuzzy set theory has been applied to a myriad of areas. Song and Chissom introduced the concept of fuzzy time series and applied some methods to the enrollments of the University of Alabama. In recent years, a number of techniques have been proposed for forecasting based on fuzzy set theory methods. These methods have either used enrollment numbers or differences of enrollments as the universe of discourse. We propose using the year to year percentage change as the universe of discourse. In this communication, the approach of Jilani, Burney, and Ardil is modified by using the year to year percentage change as the universe of discourse. We use enrollment figures for the University of Alabama to illustrate our proposed method. The proposed method results in better forecasting accuracy than existing models.

Keywords: Fuzzy forecasting, fuzzy time series, fuzzified enrollments, time-invariant model

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Authors: A. Nasiri Pour, B. Rostami Tabar, A.Rahimzadeh

Abstract:

Accurate demand forecasting is one of the most key issues in inventory management of spare parts. The problem of modeling future consumption becomes especially difficult for lumpy patterns, which characterized by intervals in which there is no demand and, periods with actual demand occurrences with large variation in demand levels. However, many of the forecasting methods may perform poorly when demand for an item is lumpy. In this study based on the characteristic of lumpy demand patterns of spare parts a hybrid forecasting approach has been developed, which use a multi-layered perceptron neural network and a traditional recursive method for forecasting future demands. In the described approach the multi-layered perceptron are adapted to forecast occurrences of non-zero demands, and then a conventional recursive method is used to estimate the quantity of non-zero demands. In order to evaluate the performance of the proposed approach, their forecasts were compared to those obtained by using Syntetos & Boylan approximation, recently employed multi-layered perceptron neural network, generalized regression neural network and elman recurrent neural network in this area. The models were applied to forecast future demand of spare parts of Arak Petrochemical Company in Iran, using 30 types of real data sets. The results indicate that the forecasts obtained by using our proposed mode are superior to those obtained by using other methods.

Keywords: Lumpy Demand, Neural Network, Forecasting, Hybrid Approach.

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Authors: Hacene Benkhoula, Mohamed Badreddine Benabdella, Hamid Bouzeboudja, Abderrahmane Asraoui

Abstract:

The wind is a random variable difficult to master, for this, we developed a mathematical and statistical methods enable to modeling and forecast wind power. Gaussian Processes (GP) is one of the most widely used families of stochastic processes for modeling dependent data observed over time, or space or time and space. GP is an underlying process formed by unrecognized operator’s uses to solve a problem. The purpose of this paper is to present how to forecast wind power by using the GP. The Gaussian process method for forecasting are presented. To validate the presented approach, a simulation under the MATLAB environment has been given.

Keywords: Forecasting, Gaussian process, modeling, wind power.

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Authors: Xuran Zhang, Huiru Chen

Abstract:

In recent years, China has made great efforts to cultivate and develop the housing rental market, especially the rental-type public housing, which has been paid attention to by all sectors of the society. This paper takes Hangzhou rental-type public housing as the research object, and divides it into three development stages according to the different supply modes of rental-type public housing. Through data collection and field research, the paper summarizes the spatial characteristics of rental-type public housing from the five perspectives of spatial planning, spatial layout, spatial integration, spatial organization and spatial configuration. On this basis, the paper proposes the optimization of the spatial layout. The study concludes that the spatial layout of rental-type public housing should be coordinated with the development of urban planning. When planning and constructing, it is necessary to select more mixed construction modes, to be properly centralized, and to improve the surrounding transportation service facilities.  It is hoped that the recommendations in this paper will provide a reference for the further development of rental-type public housing in Hangzhou.

Keywords: Hangzhou, rental-type public housing, spatial distribution, spatial optimization.

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Authors: Fengxia Zheng, Shouming Zhong

Abstract:

ANNARIMA that combines both autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) model and artificial neural network (ANN) model is a valuable tool for modeling and forecasting nonlinear time series, yet the over-fitting problem is more likely to occur in neural network models. This paper provides a hybrid methodology that combines both radial basis function (RBF) neural network and auto regression (AR) model based on binomial smoothing (BS) technique which is efficient in data processing, which is called BSRBFAR. This method is examined by using the data of Canadian Lynx data. Empirical results indicate that the over-fitting problem can be eased using RBF neural network based on binomial smoothing which is called BS-RBF, and the hybrid model–BS-RBFAR can be an effective way to improve forecasting accuracy achieved by BSRBF used separately.

Keywords: Binomial smoothing (BS), hybrid, Canadian Lynx data, forecasting accuracy.

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Authors: G. Bhushan

Abstract:

Multilobe bearings are found to be more stable than circular bearings. A three lobe bearing also possesses good stability characteristics. Sometimes the line of action of the load does not pass through the axis of a bearing and is shifted on either side by a few degrees. Load orientation is one of the factors that affect the stability of a three lobe bearing. The effect of load orientation on the stability of a three-lobe has been discussed in this paper. The results show that stability of a three-lobe bearing supporting either rigid or flexible rotor is increased for the positive values of load orientation i.e. when the load line is shifted in the opposite direction of rotation.

Keywords: Thee-lobe bearing, load orientation, finite element method.

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Authors: Peter N. Khakina, Mohammed I. Ali, Enchun Zhu, Huazhang Zhou, Baydaa H. Moula

Abstract:

Rise/span ratio has been mentioned as one of the reasons which contribute to the lower buckling load as compared to the Classical theory buckling load but this ratio has not been quantified in the equation. The purpose of this study was to determine a more realistic buckling load by quantifying the effect of the rise/span ratio because experiments have shown that the Classical theory overestimates the load. The buckling load equation was derived based on the theorem of work done and strain energy. Thereafter, finite element modeling and simulation using ABAQUS was done to determine the variables that determine the constant in the derived equation. The rise/span was found to be the determining factor of the constant in the buckling load equation. The derived buckling load correlates closely to the load obtained from experiments.

Keywords: Buckling, Finite element, Rise/span ratio, Sphericalcap

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Authors: M. Sedighizadeh, A. Rezazadeh

Abstract:

A method has been developed for preparing load models for power flow and stability. The load modeling (LOADMOD) computer software transforms data on load class mix, composition, and characteristics into the from required for commonly–used power flow and transient stability simulation programs. Typical default data have been developed for load composition and characteristics. This paper defines LOADMOD software and describes the dynamic and static load modeling techniques used in this software and results of initial testing for BAKHTAR power system.

Keywords: Load Modelling, Static, Power Flow.

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Authors: Tahseen A. Jilani, Aqil S. Burney, C. Ardil

Abstract:

Time series models have been used to make predictions of academic enrollments, weather, road accident, casualties and stock prices, etc. Based on the concepts of quartile regression models, we have developed a simple time variant quantile based fuzzy time series forecasting method. The proposed method bases the forecast using prediction of future trend of the data. In place of actual quantiles of the data at each point, we have converted the statistical concept into fuzzy concept by using fuzzy quantiles using fuzzy membership function ensemble. We have given a fuzzy metric to use the trend forecast and calculate the future value. The proposed model is applied for TAIFEX forecasting. It is shown that proposed method work best as compared to other models when compared with respect to model complexity and forecasting accuracy.

Keywords: Quantile Regression, Fuzzy time series, fuzzy logicalrelationship groups, heuristic trend prediction.

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