Search results for: Text Processing

Authors: Osman Mohammed Hegazy, Ali Hamed El Bastawissy, Romani Farid Ibrahim

Abstract:

In this paper, our concern is the management of mobile transactions in the shared area among many servers, when the mobile user moves from one cell to another in online partiallyreplicated distributed mobile database environment. We defined the concept of transaction and classified the different types of transactions. Based on this analysis, we propose an algorithm that handles the disconnection due to moving among sites.

Keywords: Concurrency, mobile database, transaction processing, two phase locking.

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Authors: Gizem Kodak

Abstract:

The Strait of Çanakkale (Dardanelles), together with the Strait of Istanbul and the Sea of Marmara, form the Turkish Straits System. In other words, the Strait of Çanakkale is the southern gate of the system that connects the Black Sea countries with the other countries of the world. Due to the heavy maritime traffic, it is important to scientifically examine the accident characteristics in the region. In particular, the results indicated by the descriptive statistics are of critical importance in order to strengthen the safety of navigation. At this point, exploratory data analysis offers strategic outputs in terms of defining the problem and knowing the strengths and weaknesses against possible accident risk. The study aims to determine the accident characteristics in the Strait of Çanakkale with temporal and spatial analysis of historical data, using Exploratory Data Analysis (EDA) as the research method. The study's results will reveal the general characteristics of maritime accidents in the region and form the infrastructure for future studies. Therefore, the text provides a clear description of the research goals and methodology, and the study's contributions are well-defined.

Keywords: Maritime Accidents, EDA, Strait of Çanakkale, navigational safety.

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Authors: T. Ito, K. Kawaguchi, R. Ohta

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The purpose of this study is to provide a guideline to assist globally-minded companies in developing task-based English- language programs for their employees. After conducting an online self-assessment questionnaire comprised of 45 job-related tasks, we analyzed responses received from 3,000 Japanese company employees and developed a checklist that considered three areas; i) the percentage of those who need to accomplish English-language tasks in their workplace (need for English), ii) a five-point self-assessment score (task performance level), and iii) the impact of previous task experience on perceived performance (experience factor). The 45 tasks were graded according to five proficiency levels. Our results helped us to create a core guideline that may assist companies in two ways: first, in helping determine which tasks employees with a certain English proficiency should be able to satisfactorily carry out, and secondly, to quickly prioritize which business-related English skills they would need in future English language programs.

Keywords: Business settings, Can-do statements, English language training programs, Self-assessment, Task experience.

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Authors: Ivana Tadić, Snježana Pivac

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Although human resources are recognized as the crucial companies’ resources and their positive influence on companies’ performances has been confirmed through different researches, scientists are still debating it. In order to contribute this debate, this paper firstly discusses the most important human resource management elements and practices and its influence on companies’ success. Afterwards it defines human resource “bundles” – interrelated and internally consistent human resource practices, complementary to each other, or the most important human resource practices and elements regarding Croatian companies and its human resource management activities. Finally, the paper provides empirical results; more precisely it reveals the relation of the level of development of human resource management function (“bundles”) and companies’ financial performances (using profitability ratios, liquidity ratios, solvency ratios and a group of additional ratios related to employees’ indicators).

Keywords: Companies’ performances, human resource bundles, multivariate statistical analysis.

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Authors: Mukul Bandodkar, Virat Chourasia

Abstract:

Visually impaired people find it extremely difficult to acquire basic and vital information necessary for their living. Therefore, they are at a very high risk of being socially excluded as a result of poor access to information. In recent years, several attempts have been made in improving the communication methods for visually impaired people which involve tactile sensation such as finger Braille, manual alphabets and the print on palm method and several other electronic devices. But, there are some problems which arise in such methods such as lack of privacy and lack of compatibility to computer environment. This paper describes a low cost Braille hand glove for blind people using slot sensors and vibration motors with the help of which they can read and write emails, text messages and read e-books. This glove allows the person to type characters based on different Braille combination using six slot sensors. The vibration in six different positions of the glove which matches to the Braille code allows them to read characters.

Keywords: Braille, Braille Hand-Glove, Slot sensors, Vibration motors.

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Authors: Dim En Nyaung, Thin Lai Lai Thein

Abstract:

Due to the rapid increase of Internet, web opinion sources dynamically emerge which is useful for both potential customers and product manufacturers for prediction and decision purposes. These are the user generated contents written in natural languages and are unstructured-free-texts scheme. Therefore, opinion mining techniques become popular to automatically process customer reviews for extracting product features and user opinions expressed over them. Since customer reviews may contain both opinionated and factual sentences, a supervised machine learning technique applies for subjectivity classification to improve the mining performance. In this paper, we dedicate our work is the task of opinion summarization. Therefore, product feature and opinion extraction is critical to opinion summarization, because its effectiveness significantly affects the identification of semantic relationships. The polarity and numeric score of all the features are determined by Senti-WordNet Lexicon. The problem of opinion summarization refers how to relate the opinion words with respect to a certain feature. Probabilistic based model of supervised learning will improve the result that is more flexible and effective.

Keywords: Opinion Mining, Opinion Summarization, Sentiment Analysis, Text Mining.

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Authors: Mohamed Yousef, Magdy Samuel, Maha El-Meligy, Taher El-Bitar

Abstract:

The present work is dealing with 2% Si-steel alloy. The alloy contains 0.05% C as well as 0.85% Al. The alloy under investigation would be used for electrical transformation purposes. A heating (expansion) - cooling (contraction) dilation investigation was executed to detect the a, a+g, and g transformation temperatures at the inflection points of the dilation curve. On heating, primary a  was detected at a temperature range between room temperature and 687 ^oC. The domain of a+g was detected in the range between 687 ^oC and 746 ^oC. g phase exists in the closed g region at the range between 746 ^oC and 1043 ^oC. The domain of a phase appears again at a temperature range between 1043 and 1105 ^oC, and followed by secondary a at temperature higher than 1105 ^oC. A physical simulation of thermo-mechanical processing on the as-cast alloy was carried out. The simulation process took into consideration the hot flat rolling pilot plant parameters. The process was executed on the thermo-mechanical simulator (Gleeble 3500). The process was designed to include seven consecutive passes. The 1^st pass represents the roughing stage, while the remaining six passes represent finish rolling stage. The whole process was executed at the temperature range from 1100 ^oC to 900 ^oC. The amount of strain starts with 23.5% at the roughing pass and decreases continuously to reach 7.5 % at the last finishing pass. The flow curve of the alloy can be abstracted from the stress-strain curves representing simulated passes. It shows alloy hardening from a pass to the other up to pass no. 6, as a result of decreasing the deformation temperature and increasing of cumulative strain. After pass no. 6, the deformation process enhances the dynamic recrystallization phenomena to appear, where the z-parameter would be high.

Keywords: Si-steel, hot deformability, critical transformation temperature, physical simulation, thermo-mechanical processing, flow curve, dynamic softening.

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Authors: Vasilescu M., Rusu L., Nestianu V., Romanescu F., Dragomir M

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The research was designed to examine the relationship between the development of muscle fatigue and the effect it has on sport performance, specifically during maximal voluntary contraction. This kind of this investigation using simultaneous electrophysiological and mechanical recordings, based on advanced mathematical processing, allows us to get parameters, and indexes in a short time, and finally, the mapping to use for the thorough investigation of the muscle contraction force, respectively the phenomenon of local muscle fatigue, both for athletes and other subjects.

Keywords: Electromyography, mechanomyography, musclefatigue

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Authors: Azza Taha Zaki

Abstract:

The death of tragedy is probably one of the most distinctive literary controversies of the twentieth century. There is common critical consent that tragedy in the classical sense of the word is no longer possible. Thinkers, philosophers and critics such as Nietzsche, Durrenmatt and George Steiner have all agreed that the decline of the genre in the modern age is due to the total lack of a unified world image and the absence of a shared vision in a fragmented and ideologically diversified world. The production of Rosencrantz and Guildenstern Are Dead in 1967 marked the rise of the genre of tragi-comedy as a more appropriate reflection of the spirit of the age. At the hands of such great dramatists as Tom Stoppard (1937- ), the revived genre was not used as an extra comic element to give some comic relief to an otherwise tragic text, but it was given a postmodernist touch to serve the interpretation of the dilemma of man in the postmodernist world. This paper will study features of postmodernist tragi-comedy in Rosencrantz and Guildenstern Are Dead as one of the most important plays in the modern British theatre and investigate Stoppard’s vision of man and life as influenced by postmodernist thought and philosophy.

Keywords: British, drama, postmodernist, Stoppard, tragi-comedy.

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Authors: Wilhelm Hoeflinger, Thomas Laminger, Johannes Wolfslehner

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For vacuum cleaned dust filters there exist no calculation methods to determine design parameters (e.g. traverse velocity of the nozzle, filter area…). In this work a method to calculate the optimum traverse velocity of the nozzle of an industrial-size flat dust filter at a given mean pressure drop and filter face velocity was elaborated. Well-known equations for the design of a cleanable multi-chamber bag-house-filter were modified in order to take into account a continuously regeneration of a dust filter by a nozzle. Thereby, the specific filter medium resistance and the specific cake resistance values are needed which can be derived from filter tests under constant operation conditions.

A lab-scale filter test rig was used to derive the specific filter media resistance value and the specific cake resistance value for vacuum cleaned filter operation. Three different filter media were tested and the determined parameters were compared to each other.

Keywords: Design of dust filter, Dust removing, Filter regeneration, Operation parameters.

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Authors: Seyed Sadegh Naseralavi, Sohrab Nemati, Ehsan Khojastehfar, Sadegh Balaghi

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In the present research, various formulations of wavelet transform are applied on acceleration time history of earthquake. The mentioned transforms decompose the strong ground motion into low and high frequency parts. Since the high frequency portion of strong ground motion has a minor effect on dynamic response of structures, the structure is excited by low frequency part. Consequently, the seismic response of structure is predicted consuming one half of computational time, comparing with conventional time history analysis. Towards reducing the computational effort needed in seismic optimization of structure, seismic optimization of a shear frame structure is conducted by applying various forms of mentioned transformation through genetic algorithm.

Keywords: Time history analysis, wavelet transform, optimization, earthquake.

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Authors: Bireswar Paul, Amitava Datta

Abstract:

Indoor air environment is a big concern in the last few decades in the developing countries, with increased focus on monitoring the air quality. In this work, an experimental study has been conducted to establish the existence of carbon nanoparticles below the size range of 10 nm in the non-sooting zone of a LPG/air partially premixed flame. Mainly, four optical techniques, UV absorption spectroscopy, fluorescence spectroscopy, dynamic light scattering and TEM have been used to characterize and measure the size of carbon nanoparticles in the sampled materials collected from the inner surface of the flame front. The existence of the carbon nanoparticles in the sampled material has been confirmed with the typical nature of the absorption and fluorescence spectra already reported in the literature. The band gap energy shows that the particles are made up of three to six aromatic rings. The size measurement by DLS technique also shows that the particles below the size range of 10 nm. The results of DLS are also corroborated by the TEM image of the same material. 

Keywords: Indoor air, carbon nanoparticles, LPG, partially premixed flame, optical techniques.

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Authors: Josef Wolfartsberger, Michael Heiml, Georg Schwarz, Sabrina Egger

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Growing individualization and higher numbers of variants in industrial assembly products raise the complexity of manufacturing processes. Technical assistance systems considering both procedural and human factors allow for an increase in product quality and a decrease in required learning times by supporting workers with precise working instructions. Due to varying needs of workers, the presentation of working instructions leads to several challenges. This paper presents an approach for a multi-modal visualization application to support assembly work of complex parts. Our approach is integrated within an interconnected assistance system network and supports the presentation of cloud-streamed textual instructions, images, videos, 3D animations and audio files along with multi-modal user interaction, customizable UI, multi-platform support (e.g. tablet-PC, TV screen, smartphone or Augmented Reality devices), automated text translation and speech synthesis. The worker benefits from more accessible and up-to-date instructions presented in an easy-to-read way.

Keywords: Assembly, assistive technologies, augmented reality, manufacturing, visualization.

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Authors: Sallehan Ismail, Mahyuddin Ramli

Abstract:

This study examined the properties of fresh and hardened concretes as influenced by the moisture state of the coarse recycled concrete aggregates (RCA) after surface treatment. Surface treatment was performed by immersing the coarse RCA in a calcium metasilicate (CM) solution. The treated coarse RCA was maintained in three controlled moisture states, namely, air-dried, oven-dried, and saturated surface-dried (SSD), prior to its use in a concrete mix. The physical properties of coarse RCA were evaluated after surface treatment during the first phase of the experiment to determine the density and the water absorption characteristics of the RCA. The second phase involved the evaluation of the slump, slump loss, density, and compressive strength of the concretes that were prepared with different proportions of natural and treated coarse RCA. Controlling the moisture state of the coarse RCA after surface treatment was found to significantly influence the properties of the fresh and hardened concretes. 

Keywords: Moisture state, recycled concrete aggregate, surface treatment.

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Authors: Yen San Yong, Hock Woon Hon

Abstract:

An algorithm for estimating the disparity of objects of interest is proposed. This algorithm uses image shifting and overlapping area to estimate the disparity value; thereby depth of the objects of interest can be obtained. The algorithm is able to perform at different levels of accuracy. However, as the accuracy increases the processing speed decreases. The algorithm is tested with static stereo images and sequence of stereo images. The experimental results are presented in this paper.

Keywords: stereo vision, binocular parallax

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Authors: Samar M. Alqhtani, Suhuai Luo, Brian Regan

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Data fusion technology can be the best way to extract useful information from multiple sources of data. It has been widely applied in various applications. This paper presents a data fusion approach in multimedia data for event detection in twitter by using Dempster-Shafer evidence theory. The methodology applies a mining algorithm to detect the event. There are two types of data in the fusion. The first is features extracted from text by using the bag-ofwords method which is calculated using the term frequency-inverse document frequency (TF-IDF). The second is the visual features extracted by applying scale-invariant feature transform (SIFT). The Dempster - Shafer theory of evidence is applied in order to fuse the information from these two sources. Our experiments have indicated that comparing to the approaches using individual data source, the proposed data fusion approach can increase the prediction accuracy for event detection. The experimental result showed that the proposed method achieved a high accuracy of 0.97, comparing with 0.93 with texts only, and 0.86 with images only.

Keywords: Data fusion, Dempster-Shafer theory, data mining, event detection.

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Authors: F. H. Abanda, B. Kamsu-Foguem, J. H. M. Tah

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Construction cost estimation is one of the most important aspects of construction project design. For generations, the process of cost estimating has been manual, time-consuming and error-prone. This has partly led to most cost estimates to be unclear and riddled with inaccuracies that at times lead to over- or underestimation of construction cost. The development of standard set of measurement rules that are understandable by all those involved in a construction project, have not totally solved the challenges. Emerging Building Information Modelling (BIM) technologies can exploit standard measurement methods to automate cost estimation process and improve accuracies. This requires standard measurement methods to be structured in ontological and machine readable format; so that BIM software packages can easily read them. Most standard measurement methods are still text-based in textbooks and require manual editing into tables or Spreadsheet during cost estimation. The aim of this study is to explore the development of an ontology based on New Rules of Measurement (NRM) commonly used in the UK for cost estimation. The methodology adopted is Methontology, one of the most widely used ontology engineering methodologies. The challenges in this exploratory study are also reported and recommendations for future studies proposed.

Keywords: BIM, Construction projects, Cost estimation, NRM, Ontology.

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Authors: Khaled Ramadan Elbeydi

Abstract:

This study is carried out to provide an insight into the analysis of the impact of selected macro-economic variables on gross fixed capital formation in Libya using annual data over the period (1970-2010). The importance of this study comes from the ability to show the relative important factors that impact the Libyan gross fixed capital formation. This understanding would give indications to decision makers on which policy they must focus to stimulate the economy. An Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) modeling process is employed to investigate the impact of the Gross Domestic Product, Monetary Base and Trade Openness on Gross Fixed Capital Formation in Libya. The results of this study reveal that there is an equilibrium relationship between capital formation and its determinants. The results also indicate that GDP and trade openness largely explain the pattern of capital formation in Libya. The findings and recommendations provide vital information relevant for policy formulation and implementation aimed to improve capital formation in Libya.

Keywords: ARDL, Bounds test, capital formation, Cointegration, Libya.

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Authors: Parvinder S. Sandhu, Hardeep Singh

Abstract:

Automatic reusability appraisal could be helpful in evaluating the quality of developed or developing reusable software components and in identification of reusable components from existing legacy systems; that can save cost of developing the software from scratch. But the issue of how to identify reusable components from existing systems has remained relatively unexplored. In this paper, we have mentioned two-tier approach by studying the structural attributes as well as usability or relevancy of the component to a particular domain. Latent semantic analysis is used for the feature vector representation of various software domains. It exploits the fact that FeatureVector codes can be seen as documents containing terms -the idenifiers present in the components- and so text modeling methods that capture co-occurrence information in low-dimensional spaces can be used. Further, we devised Neuro- Fuzzy hybrid Inference System, which takes structural metric values as input and calculates the reusability of the software component. Decision tree algorithm is used to decide initial set of fuzzy rules for the Neuro-fuzzy system. The results obtained are convincing enough to propose the system for economical identification and retrieval of reusable software components.

Keywords: Clustering, ID3, LSA, Neuro-fuzzy System, SVD

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Authors: G. K. Pandey, D. Ramadasu, I. Banerjee, V. Vinod, G. Padmakumar, V. Prakash, K. K. Rajan

Abstract:

Detailed thermal hydraulic investigations are very  essential for safe and reliable functioning of liquid metal cooled fast  breeder reactors. These investigations are further more important for  components with complex profile, since there is no direct correlation  available in literature to evaluate the hydraulic characteristics of such  components directly. In those cases available correlations for similar  profile or geometries may lead to significant uncertainty in the  outcome. Hence experimental approach can be adopted to evaluate  these hydraulic characteristics more precisely for better prediction in  reactor core components.  Prototype Fast Breeder Reactor (PFBR), a sodium cooled pool  type reactor is under advanced stage of construction at Kalpakkam,  India. Several components of this reactor core require hydraulic  investigation before its usage in the reactor. These hydraulic  investigations on full scale models, carried out by experimental  approaches using water as simulant fluid are discussed in the paper. 

Keywords: Fast Breeder Reactor, Cavitation, pressure drop, Reactor components.

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Authors: Eugene Y. C. Wong, Henry Y. K. Lau, Mardjuki Raman

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CO₂ emissions from maritime transport operations represent a substantial part of the total greenhouse gas emission. Vessels are designed with better energy efficiency. Minimizing CO₂ emission in maritime operations plays an important role in supply chain decarbonisation. This paper reviews the initiatives on slow steaming operations towards the reduction of carbon emission. It investigates the relationship and impact among slow steaming cost reduction, carbon emission reduction, and shipment delay. A scenario-based cost-driven decision support model is developed to facilitate the selection of the optimal slow steaming options, considering the cost on bunker fuel consumption, available speed, carbon emission, and shipment delay. The incorporation of the social cost of cargo is reviewed and suggested. Additional measures on the effect of vessels sizes, routing, and type of fuels towards decarbonisation are discussed.

Keywords: Slow steaming, carbon emission, maritime logistics, sustainability, green supply chain.

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Authors: Suleiman Musa, Shuaibu Sidi Safiyanu

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This study examined the digital preservation in Nigeria university libraries. A comparison between the university of Nigeria Nsukka (UNN) and Ahmadu Bello University Zaria (ABU, Zaria). The study utilized primary source of data obtained from two selected institution librarians. Finding revealed varying results in terms of skills acquired by librarians before and after digitization of the two institutions. The study reports that journals publication, text book, CD-ROMS, conference papers and proceedings, theses, dissertations and seminar papers are among the information resources available for digitization. The study further documents that copyright issue, power failure, and unavailability of needed materials are among the challenges facing the digitization of library of the institution. On the basis of the finding, the study concluded that digitization of library enhances efficiency in organization and retrieval of information services. The study therefore recommended that software should be upgraded with backup, training of the librarians on digital process, installation of antivirus and enhancement of technical collaboration between the library and MIS.

Keywords: Digitalization, preservation, libraries, comparison.

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Authors: Takatoshi Ishii, Koji Kimita, Keiichi Muramatsu, Yoshiki Shimomura

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To increase the quality of learning, teacher and learner need mutual effort for realization of educational value. For this purpose, we need to manage the co-creational education among teacher and learners. In this research, we try to find a feature of co-creational education. To be more precise, we analyzed learners’ reports by natural language processing, and extract some features that describe the state of the co-creational education.

Keywords: Co-creational education, e-portfolios, ICT integration, labeled Latent Dirichlet allocation.

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Authors: Farshad Zeinali, Sajedeh Norouzi, Nader Mokari, Eduard A. Jorswieck

Abstract:

The capacity of fifth-generation (5G)vehicle-to-everything (V2X) networks poses significant challenges.To address this challenge, this paper utilizes New Radio (NR) and New Radio Unlicensed (NR-U) networks to develop a vehicular heterogeneous network (HetNet). We propose a framework, named joint BS assignment and resource allocation (JBSRA) for mobile V2X users and also consider coexistence schemes based on flexible duty cycle (DC) mechanism for unlicensed bands. Our objective is to maximize the average throughput of vehicles, while guarantying the WiFi users throughput. In simulations based on deep reinforcement learning (DRL) algorithms such as deep deterministic policy gradient (DDPG) and deep Q network (DQN), our proposed framework outperforms existing solutions that rely on fixed DC or schemes without consideration of unlicensed bands.

Keywords: Vehicle-to-everything, resource allocation, BS assignment, new radio, new radio unlicensed, coexistence NR-U and WiFi, deep deterministic policy gradient, Deep Q-network, Duty cycle mechanism.

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Authors: Sergei Aleinik, Yuri Matveev

Abstract:

In this paper a novel method for the detection of  clipping in speech signals is described. It is shown that the new  method has better performance than known clipping detection  methods, is easy to implement, and is robust to changes in signal  amplitude, size of data, etc. Statistical simulation results are  presented.

 

Keywords: Clipping, clipped signal, speech signal processing.

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Authors: Hyun-Woo Cho

Abstract:

Real-time or in-line process monitoring frameworks are designed to give early warnings for a fault along with meaningful identification of its assignable causes. In artificial intelligence and machine learning fields of pattern recognition various promising approaches have been proposed such as kernel-based nonlinear machine learning techniques. This work presents a kernel-based empirical monitoring scheme for batch type production processes with small sample size problem of partially unbalanced data. Measurement data of normal operations are easy to collect whilst special events or faults data are difficult to collect. In such situations, noise filtering techniques can be helpful in enhancing process monitoring performance. Furthermore, preprocessing of raw process data is used to get rid of unwanted variation of data. The performance of the monitoring scheme was demonstrated using three-dimensional batch data. The results showed that the monitoring performance was improved significantly in terms of detection success rate of process fault.

Keywords: Process Monitoring, kernel methods, multivariate filtering, data-driven techniques, quality improvement.

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Authors: Shuen-Tai Wang, Hsi-Ya Chang

Abstract:

Cloud computing is becoming more and more matured over the last few years and consequently the demands for better cloud services is increasing rapidly. One of the research topics to improve cloud services is the desktop computing in virtualized environment. This paper aims at the development of an adaptive virtual desktop service in cloud computing platform based on our previous research on the virtualization technology. We implement cloud virtual desktop and application software streaming technology that make it possible for providing Virtual Desktop as a Service (VDaaS). Given the development of remote desktop virtualization, it allows shifting the user’s desktop from the traditional PC environment to the cloud-enabled environment, which is stored on a remote virtual machine rather than locally. This proposed effort has the potential to positively provide an efficient, resilience and elastic environment for online cloud service. Users no longer need to burden the platform maintenances and drastically reduces the overall cost of hardware and software licenses. Moreover, this flexible remote desktop service represents the next significant step to the mobile workplace, and it lets users access their desktop environments from virtually anywhere.

Keywords: Cloud Computing, Virtualization, Virtual Desktop, VDaaS.

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Authors: Rawan I. Zaghloul, Enas F. Al-Rawashdeh

Abstract:

In this paper a simple watermarking method for color images is proposed. The proposed method is based on watermark embedding for the histograms of the HSV planes using visual cryptography watermarking. The method has been proved to be robust for various image processing operations such as filtering, compression, additive noise, and various geometrical attacks such as rotation, scaling, cropping, flipping, and shearing.

Keywords: Histogram, HSV image, Visual Cryptography, Watermark.

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Authors: Anatoli Torokhti, Stan Miklavcic

Abstract:

We study a new technique for optimal data compression subject to conditions of causality and different types of memory. The technique is based on the assumption that some information about compressed data can be obtained from a solution of the associated problem without constraints of causality and memory. This allows us to consider two separate problem related to compression and decompression subject to those constraints. Their solutions are given and the analysis of the associated errors is provided.

Keywords: stochastic signals, optimization problems in signal processing.

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Authors: Tea Poklepović, Zdravka Aljinović, Branka Marasović

Abstract:

Due to the importance of yield curve and its estimation it is inevitable to have valid methods for yield curve forecasting in cases when there are scarce issues of securities and/or week trade on a secondary market. Therefore in this paper, after the estimation of weekly yield curves on Croatian financial market from October 2011 to August 2012 using Nelson-Siegel and Svensson models, yield curves are forecasted using Vector autoregressive model and Neural networks. In general, it can be concluded that both forecasting methods have good prediction abilities where forecasting of yield curves based on Nelson Siegel estimation model give better results in sense of lower Mean Squared Error than forecasting based on Svensson model Also, in this case Neural networks provide slightly better results. Finally, it can be concluded that most appropriate way of yield curve prediction is Neural networks using Nelson-Siegel estimation of yield curves.

Keywords: Nelson-Siegel model, Neural networks, Svensson model, Vector autoregressive model, Yield curve.

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