Search results for: fuzzy time series
Commenced in January 2007
Frequency: Monthly
Edition: International
Paper Count: 7792

Search results for: fuzzy time series

7102 Flood Predicting in Karkheh River Basin Using Stochastic ARIMA Model

Authors: Karim Hamidi Machekposhti, Hossein Sedghi, Abdolrasoul Telvari, Hossein Babazadeh

Abstract:

Floods have huge environmental and economic impact. Therefore, flood prediction is given a lot of attention due to its importance. This study analysed the annual maximum streamflow (discharge) (AMS or AMD) of Karkheh River in Karkheh River Basin for flood predicting using ARIMA model. For this purpose, we use the Box-Jenkins approach, which contains four-stage method model identification, parameter estimation, diagnostic checking and forecasting (predicting). The main tool used in ARIMA modelling was the SAS and SPSS software. Model identification was done by visual inspection on the ACF and PACF. SAS software computed the model parameters using the ML, CLS and ULS methods. The diagnostic checking tests, AIC criterion, RACF graph and RPACF graphs, were used for selected model verification. In this study, the best ARIMA models for Annual Maximum Discharge (AMD) time series was (4,1,1) with their AIC value of 88.87. The RACF and RPACF showed residuals’ independence. To forecast AMD for 10 future years, this model showed the ability of the model to predict floods of the river under study in the Karkheh River Basin. Model accuracy was checked by comparing the predicted and observation series by using coefficient of determination (R2).

Keywords: Time series modelling, stochastic processes, ARIMA model, Karkheh River.

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7101 Dempster-Shafer's Approach for Autonomous Virtual Agent Navigation in Virtual Environments

Authors: Jafreezal Jaafar, Eric McKenzie

Abstract:

This paper presents a solution for the behavioural animation of autonomous virtual agent navigation in virtual environments. We focus on using Dempster-Shafer-s Theory of Evidence in developing visual sensor for virtual agent. The role of the visual sensor is to capture the information about the virtual environment or identifie which part of an obstacle can be seen from the position of the virtual agent. This information is require for vitual agent to coordinate navigation in virtual environment. The virual agent uses fuzzy controller as a navigation system and Fuzzy α - level for the action selection method. The result clearly demonstrates the path produced is reasonably smooth even though there is some sharp turn and also still not diverted too far from the potential shortest path. This had indicated the benefit of our method, where more reliable and accurate paths produced during navigation task.

Keywords: Agent, navigation, Dempster Shafer, fuzzy logic.

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7100 Fuzzy Population-Based Meta-Heuristic Approaches for Attribute Reduction in Rough Set Theory

Authors: Mafarja Majdi, Salwani Abdullah, Najmeh S. Jaddi

Abstract:

One of the global combinatorial optimization problems in machine learning is feature selection. It concerned with removing the irrelevant, noisy, and redundant data, along with keeping the original meaning of the original data. Attribute reduction in rough set theory is an important feature selection method. Since attribute reduction is an NP-hard problem, it is necessary to investigate fast and effective approximate algorithms. In this paper, we proposed two feature selection mechanisms based on memetic algorithms (MAs) which combine the genetic algorithm with a fuzzy record to record travel algorithm and a fuzzy controlled great deluge algorithm, to identify a good balance between local search and genetic search. In order to verify the proposed approaches, numerical experiments are carried out on thirteen datasets. The results show that the MAs approaches are efficient in solving attribute reduction problems when compared with other meta-heuristic approaches.

Keywords: Rough Set Theory, Attribute Reduction, Fuzzy Logic, Memetic Algorithms, Record to Record Algorithm, Great Deluge Algorithm.

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7099 Transient Stability Assessment Using Fuzzy SVM and Modified Preventive Control

Authors: B. Dora Arul Selvi, .N. Kamaraj

Abstract:

Transient Stability is an important issue in power systems planning, operation and extension. The objective of transient stability analysis problem is not satisfied with mere transient instability detection or evaluation and it is most important to complement it by defining fast and efficient control measures in order to ensure system security. This paper presents a new Fuzzy Support Vector Machines (FSVM) to investigate the stability status of power systems and a modified generation rescheduling scheme to bring back the identified unstable cases to a more economical and stable operating point. FSVM improves the traditional SVM (Support Vector Machines) by adding fuzzy membership to each training sample to indicate the degree of membership of this sample to different classes. The preventive control based on economic generator rescheduling avoids the instability of the power systems with minimum change in operating cost under disturbed conditions. Numerical results on the New England 39 bus test system show the effectiveness of the proposed method.

Keywords: Fuzzy Support Vector Machine (FSVM), Incremental Cost, Preventive Control, Transient stability

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7098 Seed-Based Region Growing (SBRG) vs Adaptive Network-Based Inference System (ANFIS) vs Fuzzyc-Means (FCM): Brain Abnormalities Segmentation

Authors: Shafaf Ibrahim, Noor Elaiza Abdul Khalid, Mazani Manaf

Abstract:

Segmentation of Magnetic Resonance Imaging (MRI) images is the most challenging problems in medical imaging. This paper compares the performances of Seed-Based Region Growing (SBRG), Adaptive Network-Based Fuzzy Inference System (ANFIS) and Fuzzy c-Means (FCM) in brain abnormalities segmentation. Controlled experimental data is used, which designed in such a way that prior knowledge of the size of the abnormalities are known. This is done by cutting various sizes of abnormalities and pasting it onto normal brain tissues. The normal tissues or the background are divided into three different categories. The segmentation is done with fifty seven data of each category. The knowledge of the size of the abnormalities by the number of pixels are then compared with segmentation results of three techniques proposed. It was proven that the ANFIS returns the best segmentation performances in light abnormalities, whereas the SBRG on the other hand performed well in dark abnormalities segmentation.

Keywords: Seed-Based Region Growing (SBRG), Adaptive Network-Based Fuzzy Inference System (ANFIS), Fuzzy c-Means (FCM), Brain segmentation.

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7097 Optimizing Approach for Sifting Process to Solve a Common Type of Empirical Mode Decomposition Mode Mixing

Authors: Saad Al-Baddai, Karema Al-Subari, Elmar Lang, Bernd Ludwig

Abstract:

Empirical mode decomposition (EMD), a new data-driven of time-series decomposition, has the advantage of supposing that a time series is non-linear or non-stationary, as is implicitly achieved in Fourier decomposition. However, the EMD suffers of mode mixing problem in some cases. The aim of this paper is to present a solution for a common type of signals causing of EMD mode mixing problem, in case a signal suffers of an intermittency. By an artificial example, the solution shows superior performance in terms of cope EMD mode mixing problem comparing with the conventional EMD and Ensemble Empirical Mode decomposition (EEMD). Furthermore, the over-sifting problem is also completely avoided; and computation load is reduced roughly six times compared with EEMD, an ensemble number of 50.

Keywords: Empirical mode decomposition, mode mixing, sifting process, over-sifting.

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7096 Stock Price Forecast by Using Neuro-Fuzzy Inference System

Authors: Ebrahim Abbasi, Amir Abouec

Abstract:

In this research, the researchers have managed to design a model to investigate the current trend of stock price of the "IRAN KHODRO corporation" at Tehran Stock Exchange by utilizing an Adaptive Neuro - Fuzzy Inference system. For the Longterm Period, a Neuro-Fuzzy with two Triangular membership functions and four independent Variables including trade volume, Dividend Per Share (DPS), Price to Earning Ratio (P/E), and also closing Price and Stock Price fluctuation as an dependent variable are selected as an optimal model. For the short-term Period, a neureo – fuzzy model with two triangular membership functions for the first quarter of a year, two trapezoidal membership functions for the Second quarter of a year, two Gaussian combination membership functions for the third quarter of a year and two trapezoidal membership functions for the fourth quarter of a year were selected as an optimal model for the stock price forecasting. In addition, three independent variables including trade volume, price to earning ratio, closing Stock Price and a dependent variable of stock price fluctuation were selected as an optimal model. The findings of the research demonstrate that the trend of stock price could be forecasted with the lower level of error.

Keywords: Stock Price forecast, membership functions, Adaptive Neuro-Fuzzy Inference System, trade volume, P/E, DPS.

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7095 Order Partitioning in Hybrid MTS/MTO Contexts using Fuzzy ANP

Authors: H. Rafiei, M. Rabbani

Abstract:

A novel concept to balance and tradeoff between make-to-stock and make-to-order has been hybrid MTS/MTO production context. One of the most important decisions involved in the hybrid MTS/MTO environment is determining whether a product is manufactured to stock, to order, or hybrid MTS/MTO strategy. In this paper, a model based on analytic network process is developed to tackle the addressed decision. Since the regarded decision deals with the uncertainty and ambiguity of data as well as experts- and managers- linguistic judgments, the proposed model is equipped with fuzzy sets theory. An important attribute of the model is its generality due to diverse decision factors which are elicited from the literature and developed by the authors. Finally, the model is validated by applying to a real case study to reveal how the proposed model can actually be implemented.

Keywords: Fuzzy analytic network process, Hybrid make-tostock/ make-to-order, Order partitioning, Production planning.

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7094 Fuzzy C-Means Clustering for Biomedical Documents Using Ontology Based Indexing and Semantic Annotation

Authors: S. Logeswari, K. Premalatha

Abstract:

Search is the most obvious application of information retrieval. The variety of widely obtainable biomedical data is enormous and is expanding fast. This expansion makes the existing techniques are not enough to extract the most interesting patterns from the collection as per the user requirement. Recent researches are concentrating more on semantic based searching than the traditional term based searches. Algorithms for semantic searches are implemented based on the relations exist between the words of the documents. Ontologies are used as domain knowledge for identifying the semantic relations as well as to structure the data for effective information retrieval. Annotation of data with concepts of ontology is one of the wide-ranging practices for clustering the documents. In this paper, indexing based on concept and annotation are proposed for clustering the biomedical documents. Fuzzy c-means (FCM) clustering algorithm is used to cluster the documents. The performances of the proposed methods are analyzed with traditional term based clustering for PubMed articles in five different diseases communities. The experimental results show that the proposed methods outperform the term based fuzzy clustering.

Keywords: MeSH Ontology, Concept Indexing, Annotation, semantic relations, Fuzzy c-means.

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7093 Designing a Fuzzy Logic Controller to Enhance Directional Stability of Vehicles under Difficult Maneuvers

Authors: Mehrdad N. Khajavi , Golamhassan Paygane, Ali Hakima

Abstract:

Vehicle which are turning or maneuvering at high speeds are susceptible to sliding and subsequently deviate from desired path. In this paper the dynamics governing the Yaw/Roll behavior of a vehicle has been simulated. Two different simulations have been used one for the real vehicle, for which a fuzzy controller is designed to increase its directional stability property. The other simulation is for a hypothetical vehicle with much higher tire cornering stiffness which is capable of developing the required lateral forces at the tire-ground patch contact to attain the desired lateral acceleration for the vehicle to follow the desired path without slippage. This simulation model is our reference model. The logic for keeping the vehicle on the desired track in the cornering or maneuvering state is to have some braking forces on the inner or outer tires based on the direction of vehicle deviation from the desired path. The inputs to our vehicle simulation model is steer angle δ and vehicle velocity V , and the outputs can be any kinematical parameters like yaw rate, yaw acceleration, side slip angle, rate of side slip angle and so on. The proposed fuzzy controller is a feed forward controller. This controller has two inputs which are steer angle δ and vehicle velocity V, and the output of the controller is the correcting moment M, which guides the vehicle back to the desired track. To develop the membership functions for the controller inputs and output and the fuzzy rules, the vehicle simulation has been run for 1000 times and the correcting moment have been determined by trial and error. Results of the vehicle simulation with fuzzy controller are very promising and show the vehicle performance is enhanced greatly over the vehicle without the controller. In fact the vehicle performance with the controller is very near the performance of the reference ideal model.

Keywords: Vehicle, Directional Stability, Fuzzy Logic Controller, ANFIS..

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7092 Localization of Geospatial Events and Hoax Prediction in the UFO Database

Authors: Harish Krishnamurthy, Anna Lafontant, Ren Yi

Abstract:

Unidentified Flying Objects (UFOs) have been an interesting topic for most enthusiasts and hence people all over the United States report such findings online at the National UFO Report Center (NUFORC). Some of these reports are a hoax and among those that seem legitimate, our task is not to establish that these events confirm that they indeed are events related to flying objects from aliens in outer space. Rather, we intend to identify if the report was a hoax as was identified by the UFO database team with their existing curation criterion. However, the database provides a wealth of information that can be exploited to provide various analyses and insights such as social reporting, identifying real-time spatial events and much more. We perform analysis to localize these time-series geospatial events and correlate with known real-time events. This paper does not confirm any legitimacy of alien activity, but rather attempts to gather information from likely legitimate reports of UFOs by studying the online reports. These events happen in geospatial clusters and also are time-based. We look at cluster density and data visualization to search the space of various cluster realizations to decide best probable clusters that provide us information about the proximity of such activity. A random forest classifier is also presented that is used to identify true events and hoax events, using the best possible features available such as region, week, time-period and duration. Lastly, we show the performance of the scheme on various days and correlate with real-time events where one of the UFO reports strongly correlates to a missile test conducted in the United States.

Keywords: Time-series clustering, feature extraction, hoax prediction, geospatial events.

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7091 Synthetic Daily Flow Duration Curves for the Çoruh River Basin, Turkey

Authors: Fatih Tosunoğlu, İbrahim Can

Abstract:

The flow duration curve (FDC) is an informative method that represents the flow regime’s properties for a river basin. Therefore, the FDC is widely used for water resource projects such as hydropower, water supply, irrigation and water quality management. The primary purpose of this study is to obtain synthetic daily flow duration curves for Çoruh Basin, Turkey. For this aim, we firstly developed univariate auto-regressive moving average (ARMA) models for daily flows of 9 stations located in Çoruh basin and then these models were used to generate 100 synthetic flow series each having same size as historical series. Secondly, flow duration curves of each synthetic series were drawn and the flow values exceeded 10, 50 and 95% of the time and 95% confidence limit of these flows were calculated. As a result, flood, mean and low flows potential of Çoruh basin will comprehensively be represented.

Keywords: ARMA models, Çoruh basin, flow duration curve, Turkey.

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7090 A 4-Element Corporate Series Feed Millimeter-Wave Microstrip Antenna Array for 5G Applications

Authors: G. Viswanadh Raviteja

Abstract:

In this paper, a microstrip antenna array is designed for 5G applications. A corporate series feed is considered to operate with a center frequency between 27 to 28 GHz to be able to cover the 5G frequency bands 24.25-27.5 GHz, 26.5-29.5 GHz and 27.5-28.35 GHz. The substrate is taken to be Rogers RT/Duroid 6002. The corporate series 5G antenna array is designed stage by stage by taking into consideration a conventional antenna designed at 28 GHz, thereby constructing the 2X1 antenna array before arriving at the final design structure of 4-element corporate series feed antenna array. The discussions concerning S11 parameter, gain and voltage standing wave ratio (VSWR) for the design structures are considered and all the important findings are tabulated. The proposed antenna array’s S11 parameter was found to be -29.00 dB at a frequency of 27.39 GHz with a good directional gain of 12.12 dB.

Keywords: Corporate series feed, millimeter wave antenna array, 5G applications, millimeter-wave (mm-wave) applications

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7089 An Intelligent Combined Method Based on Power Spectral Density, Decision Trees and Fuzzy Logic for Hydraulic Pumps Fault Diagnosis

Authors: Kaveh Mollazade, Hojat Ahmadi, Mahmoud Omid, Reza Alimardani

Abstract:

Recently, the issue of machine condition monitoring and fault diagnosis as a part of maintenance system became global due to the potential advantages to be gained from reduced maintenance costs, improved productivity and increased machine availability. The aim of this work is to investigate the effectiveness of a new fault diagnosis method based on power spectral density (PSD) of vibration signals in combination with decision trees and fuzzy inference system (FIS). To this end, a series of studies was conducted on an external gear hydraulic pump. After a test under normal condition, a number of different machine defect conditions were introduced for three working levels of pump speed (1000, 1500, and 2000 rpm), corresponding to (i) Journal-bearing with inner face wear (BIFW), (ii) Gear with tooth face wear (GTFW), and (iii) Journal-bearing with inner face wear plus Gear with tooth face wear (B&GW). The features of PSD values of vibration signal were extracted using descriptive statistical parameters. J48 algorithm is used as a feature selection procedure to select pertinent features from data set. The output of J48 algorithm was employed to produce the crisp if-then rule and membership function sets. The structure of FIS classifier was then defined based on the crisp sets. In order to evaluate the proposed PSD-J48-FIS model, the data sets obtained from vibration signals of the pump were used. Results showed that the total classification accuracy for 1000, 1500, and 2000 rpm conditions were 96.42%, 100%, and 96.42% respectively. The results indicate that the combined PSD-J48-FIS model has the potential for fault diagnosis of hydraulic pumps.

Keywords: Power Spectral Density, Machine ConditionMonitoring, Hydraulic Pump, Fuzzy Logic.

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7088 Fuzzy Inference System Based Unhealthy Region Classification in Plant Leaf Image

Authors: K. Muthukannan, P. Latha

Abstract:

In addition to environmental parameters like rain, temperature diseases on crop is a major factor which affects production quality & quantity of crop yield. Hence disease management is a key issue in agriculture. For the management of disease, it needs to be detected at early stage. So, treat it properly & control spread of the disease. Now a day, it is possible to use the images of diseased leaf to detect the type of disease by using image processing techniques. This can be achieved by extracting features from the images which can be further used with classification algorithms or content based image retrieval systems. In this paper, color image is used to extract the features such as mean and standard deviation after the process of region cropping. The selected features are taken from the cropped image with different image size samples. Then, the extracted features are taken in to the account for classification using Fuzzy Inference System (FIS).

Keywords: Image Cropping, Classification, Color, Fuzzy Rule, Feature Extraction.

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7087 Parameters Estimation of Multidimensional Possibility Distributions

Authors: Sergey Sorokin, Irina Sorokina, Alexander Yazenin

Abstract:

We present a solution to the Maxmin u/E parameters estimation problem of possibility distributions in m-dimensional case. Our method is based on geometrical approach, where minimal area enclosing ellipsoid is constructed around the sample. Also we demonstrate that one can improve results of well-known algorithms in fuzzy model identification task using Maxmin u/E parameters estimation.

Keywords: Possibility distribution, parameters estimation, Maxmin u/E estimator, fuzzy model identification.

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7086 On Enhancing Robustness of an Evolutionary Fuzzy Tracking Controller

Authors: H. Megherbi, A. C. Megherbi, N. Megherbi, K. Benmahamed

Abstract:

This paper presents three-phase evolution search methodology to automatically design fuzzy logic controllers (FLCs) that can work in a wide range of operating conditions. These include varying load, parameter variations, and unknown external disturbances. The three-phase scheme consists of an exploration phase, an exploitation phase and a robustness phase. The first two phases search for FLC with high accuracy performances while the last phase aims at obtaining FLC providing the best compromise between the accuracy and robustness performances. Simulations were performed for direct-drive two-axis robot arm. The evolved FLC with the proposed design technique found to provide a very satisfactory performance under the wide range of operation conditions and to overcome problem associated with coupling and nonlinearities characteristics inherent to robot arms.

Keywords: Fuzzy logic control, evolutionary algorithms, robustness, exploration/exploitation phase.

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7085 A Prediction Method for Large-Size Event Occurrences in the Sandpile Model

Authors: S. Channgam, A. Sae-Tang, T. Termsaithong

Abstract:

In this research, the occurrences of large size events in various system sizes of the Bak-Tang-Wiesenfeld sandpile model are considered. The system sizes (square lattice) of model considered here are 25×25, 50×50, 75×75 and 100×100. The cross-correlation between the ratio of sites containing 3 grain time series and the large size event time series for these 4 system sizes are also analyzed. Moreover, a prediction method of the large-size event for the 50×50 system size is also introduced. Lastly, it can be shown that this prediction method provides a slightly higher efficiency than random predictions.

Keywords: Bak-Tang-Wiesenfeld sandpile model, avalanches, cross-correlation, prediction method.

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7084 Segmentation of Breast Lesions in Ultrasound Images Using Spatial Fuzzy Clustering and Structure Tensors

Authors: Yan Xu, Toshihiro Nishimura

Abstract:

Segmentation in ultrasound images is challenging due to the interference from speckle noise and fuzziness of boundaries. In this paper, a segmentation scheme using fuzzy c-means (FCM) clustering incorporating both intensity and texture information of images is proposed to extract breast lesions in ultrasound images. Firstly, the nonlinear structure tensor, which can facilitate to refine the edges detected by intensity, is used to extract speckle texture. And then, a spatial FCM clustering is applied on the image feature space for segmentation. In the experiments with simulated and clinical ultrasound images, the spatial FCM clustering with both intensity and texture information gets more accurate results than the conventional FCM or spatial FCM without texture information.

Keywords: fuzzy c-means, spatial information, structure tensor, ultrasound image segmentation

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7083 Application of Fuzzy Logic in Fault Diagnosis in Transformers using Dissolved Gas based on Different Standards

Authors: Rahmatollah Hooshmand, Mahdi Banejad

Abstract:

One of the problems in fault diagnosis of transformer based on dissolved gas, is lack of matching the result of fault diagnosis of different standards with the real world. In this paper, the result of the different standards is analyzed using fuzzy and the result is compared with the empirical test. The comparison between the suggested method and existing methods indicate the capability of the suggested method in on-line fault diagnosis of the transformers. In addition, in some cases the existing standards are not able to diagnose the fault. In theses cases, the presented method has the potential of diagnosing the fault. The information of three transformers is used to the show the capability of the suggested method in diagnosing the fault. The results validate the capability of the presented method in fault diagnosis of the transformer.

Keywords: Fault Diagnosis of Transformer, Dissolved Gas, Fuzzy Logic.

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7082 Fuzzy Logic Based Improved Range Free Localization for Wireless Sensor Networks

Authors: Ashok Kumar, Vinod Kumar

Abstract:

Wireless Sensor Networks (WSNs) are used to monitor/observe vast inaccessible regions through deployment of large number of sensor nodes in the sensing area. For majority of WSN applications, the collected data needs to be combined with geographic information of its origin to make it useful for the user; information received from remote Sensor Nodes (SNs) that are several hops away from base station/sink is meaningless without knowledge of its source. In addition to this, location information of SNs can also be used to propose/develop new network protocols for WSNs to improve their energy efficiency and lifetime. In this paper, range free localization protocols for WSNs have been proposed. The proposed protocols are based on weighted centroid localization technique, where the edge weights of SNs are decided by utilizing fuzzy logic inference for received signal strength and link quality between the nodes. The fuzzification is carried out using (i) Mamdani, (ii) Sugeno, and (iii) Combined Mamdani Sugeno fuzzy logic inference. Simulation results demonstrate that proposed protocols provide better accuracy in node localization compared to conventional centroid based localization protocols despite presence of unintentional radio frequency interference from radio frequency (RF) sources operating in same frequency band.

Keywords: localization, range free, received signal strength, link quality indicator, Mamdani fuzzy logic inference, Sugeno fuzzy logic inference.

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7081 Predicting the Impact of the Defect on the Overall Environment in Function Based Systems

Authors: Parvinder S. Sandhu, Urvashi Malhotra, E. Ardil

Abstract:

There is lot of work done in prediction of the fault proneness of the software systems. But, it is the severity of the faults that is more important than number of faults existing in the developed system as the major faults matters most for a developer and those major faults needs immediate attention. In this paper, we tried to predict the level of impact of the existing faults in software systems. Neuro-Fuzzy based predictor models is applied NASA-s public domain defect dataset coded in C programming language. As Correlation-based Feature Selection (CFS) evaluates the worth of a subset of attributes by considering the individual predictive ability of each feature along with the degree of redundancy between them. So, CFS is used for the selecting the best metrics that have highly correlated with level of severity of faults. The results are compared with the prediction results of Logistic Models (LMT) that was earlier quoted as the best technique in [17]. The results are recorded in terms of Accuracy, Mean Absolute Error (MAE) and Root Mean Squared Error (RMSE). The results show that Neuro-fuzzy based model provide a relatively better prediction accuracy as compared to other models and hence, can be used for the modeling of the level of impact of faults in function based systems.

Keywords: Software Metrics, Fuzzy, Neuro-Fuzzy, Software Faults, Accuracy, MAE, RMSE.

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7080 Use of Fuzzy Logic in the Corporate Reputation Assessment: Stock Market Investors’ Perspective

Authors: Tomasz L. Nawrocki, Danuta Szwajca

Abstract:

The growing importance of reputation in building enterprise value and achieving long-term competitive advantage creates the need for its measurement and evaluation for the management purposes (effective reputation and its risk management). The paper presents practical application of self-developed corporate reputation assessment model from the viewpoint of stock market investors. The model has a pioneer character and example analysis performed for selected industry is a form of specific test for this tool. In the proposed solution, three aspects - informational, financial and development, as well as social ones - were considered. It was also assumed that the individual sub-criteria will be based on public sources of information, and as the calculation apparatus, capable of obtaining synthetic final assessment, fuzzy logic will be used. The main reason for developing this model was to fulfill the gap in the scope of synthetic measure of corporate reputation that would provide higher degree of objectivity by relying on "hard" (not from surveys) and publicly available data. It should be also noted that results obtained on the basis of proposed corporate reputation assessment method give possibilities of various internal as well as inter-branch comparisons and analysis of corporate reputation impact.

Keywords: Corporate reputation, fuzzy logic, fuzzy model, stock market investors.

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7079 Forecasting the Fluctuation of Currency Exchange Rate Using Random Forest

Authors: L. Basha, E. Gjika

Abstract:

The exchange rate is one of the most important economic variables, especially for a small, open economy such as Albania. Its effect is noticeable on one country's competitiveness, trade and current account, inflation, wages, domestic economic activity and bank stability. This study investigates the fluctuation of Albania’s exchange rates using monthly average foreign currency, Euro (Eur) to Albanian Lek (ALL) exchange rate with a time span from January 2008 to June 2021 and the macroeconomic factors that have a significant effect on the exchange rate. Initially, the Random Forest Regression algorithm is constructed to understand the impact of economic variables in the behavior of monthly average foreign currencies exchange rates. Then the forecast of macro-economic indicators for 12 months was performed using time series models. The predicted values received are placed in the random forest model in order to obtain the average monthly forecast of Euro to Albanian Lek (ALL) exchange rate for the period July 2021 to June 2022.

Keywords: Exchange rate, Random Forest, time series, Machine Learning, forecasting.

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7078 Automatic Detection and Spatio-temporal Analysis of Commercial Accumulations Using Digital Yellow Page Data

Authors: Yuki. Akiyama, Hiroaki. Sengoku, Ryosuke. Shibasaki

Abstract:

In this study, the locations and areas of commercial accumulations were detected by using digital yellow page data. An original buffering method that can accurately create polygons of commercial accumulations is proposed in this paper.; by using this method, distribution of commercial accumulations can be easily created and monitored over a wide area. The locations, areas, and time-series changes of commercial accumulations in the South Kanto region can be monitored by integrating polygons of commercial accumulations with the time-series data of digital yellow page data. The circumstances of commercial accumulations were shown to vary according to areas, that is, highly- urbanized regions such as the city center of Tokyo and prefectural capitals, suburban areas near large cities, and suburban and rural areas.

Keywords: Commercial accumulations, Spatio-temporal analysis, Urban monitoring, Yellow page data

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7077 Determination of the Quality of the Machined Surface Using Fuzzy Logic

Authors: Dejan Tanikić, Jelena Đoković, Saša Kalinović, Miodrag Manić, Saša Ranđelović

Abstract:

This paper deals with measuring and modelling of the quality of the machined surface of the metal machining process. The average surface roughness (Ra) which represents the quality of the machined part was measured during the dry turning of the AISI 4140 steel. A large number of factors with the unknown relations among them influences this parameter, and that is why mathematical modelling is extremely complicated. Different values of cutting speed, feed rate, depth of cut (cutting regime) and workpiece hardness causes different surface roughness values. Modelling with soft computing techniques may be very useful in such cases. This paper presents the usage of the fuzzy logic-based system for determining metal machining process parameter in order to find the proper values of cutting regimes.

Keywords: Metal machining, surface roughness, fuzzy logic, process modelling.

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7076 The Computational Psycholinguistic Situational-Fuzzy Self-Controlled Brain and Mind System under Uncertainty

Authors: Ben Khayut, Lina Fabri, Maya Avikhana

Abstract:

The modern Artificial Narrow Intelligence (ANI) models cannot: a) independently, situationally, and continuously function without of human intelligence, used for retraining and reprogramming the ANI’s models, and b) think, understand, be conscious, and cognize under uncertainty and changing of the environmental objects. To eliminate these shortcomings and build a new generation of Artificial Intelligence systems, the paper proposes a Conception, Model, and Method of Computational Psycholinguistic Cognitive Situational-Fuzzy Self-Controlled Brain and Mind System (CPCSFSCBMSUU). This system uses a neural network as its computational memory, and activates functions of the perception, identification of real objects, fuzzy situational control, and forming images of these objects. These images and objects are used for modeling their psychological, linguistic, cognitive, and neural values of properties and features, the meanings of which are identified, interpreted, generated, and formed taking into account the identified subject area, using the data, information, knowledge, accumulated in the Memory. The functioning of the CPCSFSCBMSUU is carried out by its subsystems of the: fuzzy situational control of all processes, computational perception, identifying of reactions and actions, Psycholinguistic Cognitive Fuzzy Logical Inference, Decision Making, Reasoning, Systems Thinking, Planning, Awareness, Consciousness, Cognition, Intuition, and Wisdom. In doing so are performed analysis and processing of the psycholinguistic, subject, visual, signal, sound and other objects, accumulation and using the data, information and knowledge of the Memory, communication, and interaction with other computing systems, robots and humans in order of solving the joint tasks. To investigate the functional processes of the proposed system, the principles of situational control, fuzzy logic, psycholinguistics, informatics, and modern possibilities of data science were applied. The proposed self-controlled system of brain and mind is oriented on use as a plug-in in multilingual subject applications.

Keywords: Computational psycholinguistic cognitive brain and mind system, situational fuzzy control, uncertainty, AI.

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7075 Fuzzy Multi-Criteria Decision-Making Based on Ignatian Discernment Process

Authors: Pathinathan Theresanathan, Ajay Minj

Abstract:

Ignatian Discernment Process (IDP) is an intense decision-making tool to decide on life-issues. Decisions are influenced by various factors outside of the decision maker and inclination within. This paper develops IDP in the context of Fuzzy Multi-criteria Decision Making (FMCDM) process. Extended VIKOR method is a decision-making method which encompasses even conflict situations and accommodates weightage to various issues. Various aspects of IDP, namely three ways of decision making and tactics of inner desires, are observed, analyzed and articulated within the frame work of fuzzy rules. The decision-making situations are broadly categorized into two types. The issues outside of the decision maker influence the person. The inner feeling also plays vital role in coming to a conclusion. IDP integrates both the categories using Extended VIKOR method. Case studies are carried out and analyzed with FMCDM process. Finally, IDP is verified with an illustrative case study and results are interpreted. A confused person who could not come to a conclusion is able to take decision on a concrete way of life through IDP. The proposed IDP model recommends an integrated and committed approach to value-based decision making.

Keywords: Analytical hierarchy process, fuzzy multi-criteria decision making, Ignatian discernment process, Ignatian discernment, multi-criteria decision making, VIKOR.

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7074 A Case Study on the Value of Corporate Social Responsibility Systems

Authors: José M. Brotons, Manuel E. Sansalvador

Abstract:

The relationship between Corporate Social Responsibility (CSR) and financial performance (FP) is a subject of great interest that has not yet been resolved. In this work, we have developed a new and original tool to measure this relation. The tool quantifies the value contributed to companies that are committed to CSR. The theoretical model used is the fuzzy discounted cash flow method. Two assumptions have been considered, the first, the company has implemented the IQNet SR10 certification, and the second, the company has not implemented that certification. For the first one, the growth rate used for the time horizon is the rate maintained by the company after obtaining the IQNet SR10 certificate. For the second one, both, the growth rates company prior to the implementation of the certification, and the evolution of the sector will be taken into account. By using triangular fuzzy numbers, it is possible to deal adequately with each company’s forecasts as well as the information corresponding to the sector. Once the annual growth rate of the sales is obtained, the profit and loss accounts are generated from the annual estimate sales. For the remaining elements of this account, their regression with the nets sales has been considered. The difference between these two valuations, made in a fuzzy environment, allows obtaining the value of the IQNet SR10 certification. Although this study presents an innovative methodology to quantify the relation between CSR and FP, the authors are aware that only one company has been analyzed. This is precisely the main limitation of this study which in turn opens up an interesting line for future research: to broaden the sample of companies.

Keywords: Corporate social responsibility, case study, financial performance, company valuation.

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7073 Implementation and Simulation of Half-Bridge Series Resonant Inverter in Zero Voltage Switching

Authors: Buket Turan Azizoğlu

Abstract:

In switch mode power inverters, small sized inverters can be obtained by increasing the switching frequency. Switching frequency increment causes high driver losses. Also, high dt di and dt dv produced by the switching action creates high Electromagnetic Interference (EMI) and Radio Frequency Interference (RFI). In this paper, a series half bridge series resonant inverter circuit is simulated and evaluated practically to demonstrate the turn-on and turn-off conditions during zero or close to zero voltage switching. Also, the reverse recovery current effects of the body diode of the MOSFETs were investigated by operating above and below resonant frequency.

Keywords: Driver losses, Half Bridge series resonant inverter, Zero Voltage Switching

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