Search results for: fuzzy control

Authors: Meng Hu, Lili Wang

Abstract:

In this paper, based on linear matrix inequality (LMI), by using Lyapunov functional theory, the exponential stability criterion is obtained for a class of uncertain Takagi-Sugeno fuzzy Hopfield neural networks (TSFHNNs) with time delays. Here we choose a generalized Lyapunov functional and introduce a parameterized model transformation with free weighting matrices to it, these techniques lead to generalized and less conservative stability condition that guarantee the wide stability region. Finally, an example is given to illustrate our results by using MATLAB LMI toolbox.

Keywords: Hopfield neural network, linear matrix inequality, exponential stability, time delay, T-S fuzzy model.

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Authors: G. Büyüközkan , O. Feyzioglu, Z. Vardaloglu

Abstract:

Collaborative planning, forecasting and replenishment (CPFR) coordinates the various supply chain management activities including production and purchase planning, demand forecasting and inventory replenishment between supply chain trading partners. This study proposes a systematic way of analyzing CPFR supporting factors using fuzzy cognitive map (FCM) approach. FCMs have proven particularly useful for solving problems in which a number of decision variables and uncontrollable variables are causally interrelated. Hence the FCMs of CPFR are created to show the relationships between the factors that influence on effective implementation of CPFR in the supply chain.

Keywords: Collaborative planning, forecasting and replenishment, fuzzy cognitive map, information sharing, decision synchronization, incentive alignment.

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Authors: M. S. Osman, A. A. Tharwat, I. A. El-Khodary, A. G. Chalabi

Abstract:

In this paper, we propose a multiple objective optimization model with respect to portfolio selection problem for investors looking forward to diversify their equity investments in a number of equity markets. Based on Markowitz-s M-V model we developed a Fuzzy Mixed Integer Multi-Objective Nonlinear Programming Problem (FMIMONLP) to maximize the investors- future gains on equity markets, reach the optimal proportion of the budget to be invested in different equities. A numerical example with a comprehensive analysis on artificial data from several equity markets is presented in order to illustrate the proposed model and its solution method. The model performed well compared with the deterministic version of the model.

Keywords: Equity Markets, Future Scenarios, PortfolioSelection, Multiple Criteria Fuzzy Optimization

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Authors: S. Bouharati, I. Bouharati, C. Benzidane, F. Alleg, M. Belmahdi

Abstract:

Sensors possess several properties of physical measures. Whether devices that convert a sensed signal into an electrical signal, chemical sensors and biosensors, thus all these sensors can be considered as an interface between the physical and electrical equipment. The problem is the analysis of the multitudes of saved settings as input variables. However, they do not all have the same level of influence on the outputs. In order to identify the most sensitive parameters, those that can guide users in gathering information on the ground and in the process of model calibration and sensitivity analysis for the effect of each change made. Mathematical models used for processing become very complex. In this paper a fuzzy rule-based system is proposed as a solution for this problem. The system collects the available signals information from sensors. Moreover, the system allows the study of the influence of the various factors that take part in the decision system. Since its inception fuzzy set theory has been regarded as a formalism suitable to deal with the imprecision intrinsic to many problems. At the same time, fuzzy sets allow to use symbolic models. In this study an example was applied for resolving variety of physiological parameters that define human health state. The application system was done for medical diagnosis help. The inputs are the signals expressed the cardiovascular system parameters, blood pressure, Respiratory system paramsystem was done, it will be able to predict the state of patient according any input values.

Keywords: Sensors, Sensivity, fuzzy logic, analysis, physiological parameters, medical diagnosis.

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Authors: Surat Srinoy, Werasak Kurutach, Witcha Chimphlee, Siriporn Chimphlee

Abstract:

One main drawback of intrusion detection system is the inability of detecting new attacks which do not have known signatures. In this paper we discuss an intrusion detection method that proposes independent component analysis (ICA) based feature selection heuristics and using rough fuzzy for clustering data. ICA is to separate these independent components (ICs) from the monitored variables. Rough set has to decrease the amount of data and get rid of redundancy and Fuzzy methods allow objects to belong to several clusters simultaneously, with different degrees of membership. Our approach allows us to recognize not only known attacks but also to detect activity that may be the result of a new, unknown attack. The experimental results on Knowledge Discovery and Data Mining- (KDDCup 1999) dataset.

Keywords: Network security, intrusion detection, rough set, ICA, anomaly detection, independent component analysis, rough fuzzy .

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Authors: S. Karthika, K. Velayutham, P. Rathika, D. Devaraj

Abstract:

The electric power supplied by a photovoltaic power generation systems depends on the solar irradiation and temperature. The PV system can supply the maximum power to the load at a particular operating point which is generally called as maximum power point (MPP), at which the entire PV system operates with maximum efficiency and produces its maximum power. Hence, a Maximum power point tracking (MPPT) methods are used to maximize the PV array output power by tracking continuously the maximum power point. The proposed MPPT controller is designed for 10kW solar PV system installed at Cape Institute of Technology. This paper presents the fuzzy logic based MPPT algorithm. However, instead of one type of membership function, different structures of fuzzy membership functions are used in the FLC design. The proposed controller is combined with the system and the results are obtained for each membership functions in Matlab/Simulink environment. Simulation results are decided that which membership function is more suitable for this system.

Keywords: MPPT, DC-DC Converter, Fuzzy logic controller, Photovoltaic (PV) system.

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Authors: Kemal Polat

Abstract:

In this paper, an attribute weighting method called fuzzy C-means clustering based attribute weighting (FCMAW) for classification of Diabetes disease dataset has been used. The aims of this study are to reduce the variance within attributes of diabetes dataset and to improve the classification accuracy of classifier algorithm transforming from non-linear separable datasets to linearly separable datasets. Pima Indians Diabetes dataset has two classes including normal subjects (500 instances) and diabetes subjects (268 instances). Fuzzy C-means clustering is an improved version of K-means clustering method and is one of most used clustering methods in data mining and machine learning applications. In this study, as the first stage, fuzzy C-means clustering process has been used for finding the centers of attributes in Pima Indians diabetes dataset and then weighted the dataset according to the ratios of the means of attributes to centers of theirs. Secondly, after weighting process, the classifier algorithms including support vector machine (SVM) and k-NN (k- nearest neighbor) classifiers have been used for classifying weighted Pima Indians diabetes dataset. Experimental results show that the proposed attribute weighting method (FCMAW) has obtained very promising results in the classification of Pima Indians diabetes dataset.

Keywords: Fuzzy C-means clustering, Fuzzy C-means clustering based attribute weighting, Pima Indians diabetes dataset, SVM.

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Authors: Jafreezal Jaafar, Eric McKenzie

Abstract:

This paper presents a solution for the behavioural animation of autonomous virtual agent navigation in virtual environments. We focus on using Dempster-Shafer-s Theory of Evidence in developing visual sensor for virtual agent. The role of the visual sensor is to capture the information about the virtual environment or identifie which part of an obstacle can be seen from the position of the virtual agent. This information is require for vitual agent to coordinate navigation in virtual environment. The virual agent uses fuzzy controller as a navigation system and Fuzzy α - level for the action selection method. The result clearly demonstrates the path produced is reasonably smooth even though there is some sharp turn and also still not diverted too far from the potential shortest path. This had indicated the benefit of our method, where more reliable and accurate paths produced during navigation task.

Keywords: Agent, Navigation, Demster Shafer, Fuzzy Logic.

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Authors: Devdutt, M. L. Aggarwal

Abstract:

In this paper, passenger ride comfort issues are studied taking active quarter car model with three degrees of freedom. A hybrid fuzzy – PID controller with coupled rules (HFPIDCR) is designed for vibration control of passenger seat. Three different control strategies are considered. In first case, main suspension is controlled. In second case, passenger seat suspension is controlled. In third case, both main suspension and passenger seat suspensions are controlled. Passenger seat acceleration and displacement results are obtained using bump and sinusoidal type road disturbances. Finally, obtained simulation results of designed uncontrolled and controlled quarter car models are compared and discussed to select best control strategy for achieving high level of passenger ride comfort.

Keywords: Active suspension system, HFPIDCR controller, passenger ride comfort, quarter car model.

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Authors: Bijaya Krushna Mangaraj, Deepak Kumar Das

Abstract:

Sustainability in rural production system can only be achieved if it can suitably satisfy the local requirement as well as the outside demand with the changing time. With the increased pressure from the food sector in a globalised world, the agrarian economy needs to re-organise its cultivable land system to be compatible with new management practices as well as the multiple needs of various stakeholders and the changing resource scenario. An attempt has been made to transform this problem into a multi-objective decisionmaking problem considering various objectives, resource constraints and conditional constraints. An interactive fuzzy multi-objective programming approach has been used for such a purpose taking a case study in Indian context to demonstrate the validity of the method.

Keywords: Land re-organisation, Crop planning, Multiobjective Decision-Making, Fuzzy Goal Programming.

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Authors: A. R. Seifi

Abstract:

This work presents a new algorithm based on a combination of fuzzy (FUZ), Dynamic Programming (DP), and Genetic Algorithm (GA) approach for capacitor allocation in distribution feeders. The problem formulation considers two distinct objectives related to total cost of power loss and total cost of capacitors including the purchase and installation costs. The novel formulation is a multi-objective and non-differentiable optimization problem. The proposed method of this article uses fuzzy reasoning for sitting of capacitors in radial distribution feeders, DP for sizing and finally GA for finding the optimum shape of membership functions which are used in fuzzy reasoning stage. The proposed method has been implemented in a software package and its effectiveness has been verified through a 9-bus radial distribution feeder for the sake of conclusions supports. A comparison has been done among the proposed method of this paper and similar methods in other research works that shows the effectiveness of the proposed method of this paper for solving optimum capacitor planning problem.

Keywords: Capacitor planning, Fuzzy logic method, Genetic Algorithm, Dynamic programming, Radial Distribution feeder

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Authors: Maithem Al-Saadi, Min An

Abstract:

During airport planning and design stages, the major issues of capacity and safety in construction and operation of an airport need to be taken into consideration. The airside of an airport is a major and critical infrastructure that usually consists of runway(s), taxiway system, and apron(s) etc., which have to be designed according to the international standards and recommendations, and local limitations to accommodate the forecasted demands. However, in many cases, airport airsides are suffering from unexpected risks that occurred during airport operations. Therefore, safety risk assessment should be applied in the planning and design of airsides to cope with the probability of risks and their consequences, and to make decisions to reduce the risks to as low as reasonably practicable (ALARP) based on safety risk assessment. This paper presents a combination approach of Failure Modes, Effect, and Criticality Analysis (FMECA), Fuzzy Reasoning Approach (FRA), and Fuzzy Analytic Hierarchy Process (FAHP) to develop a risk analysis model for safety risk assessment. An illustrated example is used to the demonstrate risk assessment process on how the design of an airside in an airport can be analysed by using the proposed safety design risk assessment model.

Keywords: Airport airside planning and design, design for safety, fuzzy reasoning approach, fuzzy AHP, risk assessment.

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Authors: R. Parameshwaran, R. Karunakaran, S. Iniyan, Anand A. Samuel

Abstract:

The objective of this study is to present the test results of variable air volume (VAV) air conditioning system optimized by two objective genetic algorithm (GA). The objective functions are energy savings and thermal comfort. The optimal set points for fuzzy logic controller (FLC) are the supply air temperature (Ts), the supply duct static pressure (Ps), the chilled water temperature (Tw), and zone temperature (Tz) that is taken as the problem variables. Supply airflow rate and chilled water flow rate are considered to be the constraints. The optimal set point values are obtained from GA process and assigned into fuzzy logic controller (FLC) in order to conserve energy and maintain thermal comfort in real time VAV air conditioning system. A VAV air conditioning system with FLC installed in a software laboratory has been taken for the purpose of energy analysis. The total energy saving obtained in VAV GA optimization system with FLC compared with constant air volume (CAV) system is expected to achieve 31.5%. The optimal duct static pressure obtained through Genetic fuzzy methodology attributes to better air distribution by delivering the optimal quantity of supply air to the conditioned space. This combination enhanced the advantages of uniform air distribution, thermal comfort and improved energy savings potential.

Keywords: Energy savings, fuzzy logic, Genetic algorithm, Thermal Comfort

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Authors: Phruksaphanrat B.

Abstract:

This research presents a fuzzy multi-objective model for a machine selection problem in a flexible manufacturing system of a tire company. Two main objectives are minimization of an average machine error and minimization of the total setup time. Conventionally, the working team uses trial and error in selecting a pressing machine for each task due to the complexity and constraints of the problem. So, both objectives may not satisfy. Moreover, trial and error takes a lot of time to get the final decision. Therefore, in this research preemptive fuzzy goal programming model is developed for solving this multi-objective problem. The proposed model can obtain the appropriate results that the Decision Making (DM) is satisfied for both objectives. Besides, alternative choice can be easily generated by varying the satisfaction level. Additionally, decision time can be reduced by using the model, which includes all constraints of the system to generate the solutions. A numerical example is also illustrated to show the effectiveness of the proposed model.

Keywords: Machine Selection, Preemptive Fuzzy Goal Programming, Mixed Integer Programming, Application of Tire Industry.

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Authors: Kamalendu Pal

Abstract:

This paper describes the main features of a knowledge-based system evaluation method. System evaluation is placed in the context of a hybrid legal decision-support system, Advisory Support for Home Settlement in Divorce (ASHSD). Legal knowledge for ASHSD is represented in two forms, as rules and previously decided cases. Besides distinguishing the two different forms of knowledge representation, the paper outlines the actual use of these forms in a computational framework that is designed to generate a plausible solution for a given case, by using rule-based reasoning (RBR) and case-based reasoning (CBR) in an integrated environment. The nature of suitability assessment of a solution has been considered as a multiple criteria decision-making process in ASHAD evaluation. The evaluation was performed by a combination of discussions and questionnaires with different user groups. The answers to questionnaires used in this evaluations method have been measured as a fuzzy linguistic term. The finding suggests that fuzzy linguistic evaluation is practical and meaningful in knowledge-based system development purpose. 

Keywords: Case-based reasoning, decision-support system, fuzzy linguistic term, rule-based reasoning, system evaluation.

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Authors: Chien-Hua Wang, Meng-Ying Chou, Chin-Tzong Pang

Abstract:

In the era of great competition, understanding and satisfying customers- requirements are the critical tasks for a company to make a profits. Customer relationship management (CRM) thus becomes an important business issue at present. With the help of the data mining techniques, the manager can explore and analyze from a large quantity of data to discover meaningful patterns and rules. Among all methods, well-known association rule is most commonly seen. This paper is based on Apriori algorithm and uses genetic algorithms combining a data mining method to discover fuzzy classification rules. The mined results can be applied in CRM to help decision marker make correct business decisions for marketing strategies.

Keywords: Customer relationship management (CRM), Data mining, Apriori algorithm, Genetic algorithm, Fuzzy classification rules.

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Authors: Cristina Schreiner, Romeo Ciobanu, Marius Pislaru

Abstract:

This paper aims to build a system based on fuzzy models that can be implemented in the assessment of ecological systems, to determine appropriate methods of action for reducing adverse effects on environmental and implicit the population. The model proposed provides new perspective for environmental assessment, and it can be used as a practical instrument for decision –making.

Keywords: Ecosystem model, Environmental security, Fuzzy logic, Sustainability of habitable regions.

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Authors: C. Ardil

Abstract:

The selection of an Unmanned Aerial Vehicle (UAV) involves complex decision-making due to the evaluation of numerous alternatives and criteria simultaneously. This process necessitates the consideration of various factors such as payload capacity, maximum speed, endurance, altitude, avionics systems, price, economic life, and maximum range. This study aims to determine the most suitable UAV by taking these criteria into account. To achieve this, the standard fuzzy set methodology is employed, enabling decision-makers to define linguistic terms as references. A practical numerical example is provided to demonstrate the applicability of the proposed approach. Through a successful application, a comparison of different UAVs is conducted, culminating in the selection of the most appropriate vehicle during the final stage.

Keywords: Standard fuzzy sets (SFSs), Unmanned Aerial Vehicle (UAV) selection, multiple criteria decision making, MCDM

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Authors: Naima Ikken, Abdelhadi Bouknadel, Nour-eddine Tariba Ahmed Haddou, Hafsa El Omari

Abstract:

The operation of grid-connected inverters necessity a single-phase phase locked loop (PLL) is proposed in this article to accurately and quickly estimate and detect the grid phase angle. This article presents the improvement of a method of phase-locked loop. The novelty is to generate a method (PLL) of synchronizing the grid with a Notch filter based on adaptive fuzzy logic for inverter systems connected to the grid. The performance of the proposed method was tested under normal and abnormal operating conditions (amplitude, frequency and phase shift variations). In addition, simulation results with ISPM software are developed to verify the effectiveness of the proposed method strategy. Finally, the experimental test will be used to extract the result and discuss the validity of the proposed algorithm.

Keywords: Phase locked loop, PLL, notch filter, fuzzy logic control.

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Authors: Elif Alaybeyoğlu, Y. Esra Albayrak

Abstract:

Marketing establishes a communication network between producers and consumers. Nowadays, marketing approach is customer-focused and products are directly oriented to meet customer needs. Marketing, which is a long process, needs organization and management. Therefore strategic marketing planning becomes more and more important in today’s competitive conditions. Main focus of this paper is to evaluate pricing strategies and select the best pricing strategy solution while considering internal and external factors influencing the company’s pricing decisions associated with new product development. To reflect the decision maker’s subjective preference information and to determine the weight vector of factors (attributes), the fuzzy linear programming technique for multidimensional analysis of preference (LINMAP) under intuitionistic fuzzy (IF) environments is used.

Keywords: IF Sets, LINMAP, MAGDM, Marketing.

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Authors: Ömer Faruk Baykoç, Ümit Sami Sakalli

Abstract:

In this paper, we propose a fuzzy aggregate production planning (APP) model for blending problem in a brass factory which is the problem of computing optimal amounts of raw materials for the total production of several types of brass in a period. The model has deterministic and imprecise parameters which follows triangular possibility distributions. The brass casting APP model can not always be solved by using common approaches used in the literature. Therefore a mathematical model is presented for solving this problem. In the proposed model, the Lai and Hwang-s fuzzy ranking concept is relaxed by using one constraint instead of three constraints. An application of the brass casting APP model in a brass factory shows that the proposed model successfully solves the multi-blend problem in casting process and determines the optimal raw material purchasing policies.

Keywords: Aggregate production planning, Blending, brasscasting, possibilistic programming.

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Authors: Jonghyun Park, Toan Nguyen Dinh, Gueesang Lee

Abstract:

In this paper, we present a novel approach to accurately detect text regions including shop name in signboard images with complex background for mobile system applications. The proposed method is based on the combination of text detection using edge profile and region segmentation using fuzzy c-means method. In the first step, we perform an elaborate canny edge operator to extract all possible object edges. Then, edge profile analysis with vertical and horizontal direction is performed on these edge pixels to detect potential text region existing shop name in a signboard. The edge profile and geometrical characteristics of each object contour are carefully examined to construct candidate text regions and classify the main text region from background. Finally, the fuzzy c-means algorithm is performed to segment and detected binarize text region. Experimental results show that our proposed method is robust in text detection with respect to different character size and color and can provide reliable text binarization result.

Keywords: Text detection, edge profile, signboard image, fuzzy clustering.

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Authors: Hamid Reza Boveiri

Abstract:

Classification of Persian printed numeral characters has been considered and a proposed system has been introduced. In representation stage, for the first time in Persian optical character recognition, extended moment invariants has been utilized as characters image descriptor. In classification stage, four different classifiers namely minimum mean distance, nearest neighbor rule, multi layer perceptron, and fuzzy min-max neural network has been used, which first and second are traditional nonparametric statistical classifier. Third is a well-known neural network and forth is a kind of fuzzy neural network that is based on utilizing hyperbox fuzzy sets. Set of different experiments has been done and variety of results has been presented. The results showed that extended moment invariants are qualified as features to classify Persian printed numeral characters.

Keywords: Extended moment invariants, optical characterrecognition, Persian numerals classification.

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Authors: A. Sivakumar, S. S. Darun Prakash, P. Navaneethakrishnan

Abstract:

In and around Erode District, it is estimated that more than 1250 chemical and allied textile processing fabric industries are affected, partially closed and shut off for various reasons such as poor management, poor supplier performance, lack of planning for productivity, fluctuation of output, poor investment, waste analysis, labor problems, capital/labor ratio, accumulation of stocks, poor maintenance of resources, deficiencies in the quality of fabric, low capacity utilization, age of plant and equipment, high investment and input but low throughput, poor research and development, lack of energy, workers’ fear of loss of jobs, work force mix and work ethic. The main objective of this work is to analyze the existing conditions in textile fabric sector, validate the break even of Total Productivity (TP), analyze, design and implement fuzzy sets and mathematical programming for improvement of productivity and quality dimensions in the fabric processing industry. It needs to be compatible with the reality of textile and fabric processing industries. The highly risk events from productivity and quality dimension were found by fuzzy systems and results are wrapped up among the textile fabric processing industry.

Keywords: Break Even Point, Fuzzy Crisp Data, Fuzzy Sets, Productivity, Productivity Cycle, Total Productive Maintenance.

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Authors: Chin-Ming Hong, Chin-Teng Lin, Chao-Yen Huang, Yi-Ming Lin

Abstract:

In this article, we propose an Intelligent Medical Diagnostic System (IMDS) accessible through common web-based interface, to on-line perform initial screening for osteoporosis. The fundamental approaches which construct the proposed system are mainly based on the fuzzy-neural theory, which can exhibit superiority over other conventional technologies in many fields. In diagnosis process, users simply answer a series of directed questions to the system, and then they will immediately receive a list of results which represents the risk degrees of osteoporosis. According to clinical testing results, it is shown that the proposed system can provide the general public or even health care providers with a convenient, reliable, inexpensive approach to osteoporosis risk assessment.

Keywords: BMD, osteoporosis, IMDS, fuzzy-neural theory, web interface.

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Authors: Jafreezal Jaafar, Eric McKenzie

Abstract:

This paper presents a solution for the behavioural animation of autonomous virtual agent navigation in virtual environments. We focus on using Dempster-Shafer-s Theory of Evidence in developing visual sensor for virtual agent. The role of the visual sensor is to capture the information about the virtual environment or identifie which part of an obstacle can be seen from the position of the virtual agent. This information is require for vitual agent to coordinate navigation in virtual environment. The virual agent uses fuzzy controller as a navigation system and Fuzzy α - level for the action selection method. The result clearly demonstrates the path produced is reasonably smooth even though there is some sharp turn and also still not diverted too far from the potential shortest path. This had indicated the benefit of our method, where more reliable and accurate paths produced during navigation task.

Keywords: Agent, navigation, Dempster Shafer, fuzzy logic.

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Authors: Mafarja Majdi, Salwani Abdullah, Najmeh S. Jaddi

Abstract:

One of the global combinatorial optimization problems in machine learning is feature selection. It concerned with removing the irrelevant, noisy, and redundant data, along with keeping the original meaning of the original data. Attribute reduction in rough set theory is an important feature selection method. Since attribute reduction is an NP-hard problem, it is necessary to investigate fast and effective approximate algorithms. In this paper, we proposed two feature selection mechanisms based on memetic algorithms (MAs) which combine the genetic algorithm with a fuzzy record to record travel algorithm and a fuzzy controlled great deluge algorithm, to identify a good balance between local search and genetic search. In order to verify the proposed approaches, numerical experiments are carried out on thirteen datasets. The results show that the MAs approaches are efficient in solving attribute reduction problems when compared with other meta-heuristic approaches.

Keywords: Rough Set Theory, Attribute Reduction, Fuzzy Logic, Memetic Algorithms, Record to Record Algorithm, Great Deluge Algorithm.

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Authors: Shafaf Ibrahim, Noor Elaiza Abdul Khalid, Mazani Manaf

Abstract:

Segmentation of Magnetic Resonance Imaging (MRI) images is the most challenging problems in medical imaging. This paper compares the performances of Seed-Based Region Growing (SBRG), Adaptive Network-Based Fuzzy Inference System (ANFIS) and Fuzzy c-Means (FCM) in brain abnormalities segmentation. Controlled experimental data is used, which designed in such a way that prior knowledge of the size of the abnormalities are known. This is done by cutting various sizes of abnormalities and pasting it onto normal brain tissues. The normal tissues or the background are divided into three different categories. The segmentation is done with fifty seven data of each category. The knowledge of the size of the abnormalities by the number of pixels are then compared with segmentation results of three techniques proposed. It was proven that the ANFIS returns the best segmentation performances in light abnormalities, whereas the SBRG on the other hand performed well in dark abnormalities segmentation.

Keywords: Seed-Based Region Growing (SBRG), Adaptive Network-Based Fuzzy Inference System (ANFIS), Fuzzy c-Means (FCM), Brain segmentation.

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Authors: Ebrahim Abbasi, Amir Abouec

Abstract:

In this research, the researchers have managed to design a model to investigate the current trend of stock price of the "IRAN KHODRO corporation" at Tehran Stock Exchange by utilizing an Adaptive Neuro - Fuzzy Inference system. For the Longterm Period, a Neuro-Fuzzy with two Triangular membership functions and four independent Variables including trade volume, Dividend Per Share (DPS), Price to Earning Ratio (P/E), and also closing Price and Stock Price fluctuation as an dependent variable are selected as an optimal model. For the short-term Period, a neureo – fuzzy model with two triangular membership functions for the first quarter of a year, two trapezoidal membership functions for the Second quarter of a year, two Gaussian combination membership functions for the third quarter of a year and two trapezoidal membership functions for the fourth quarter of a year were selected as an optimal model for the stock price forecasting. In addition, three independent variables including trade volume, price to earning ratio, closing Stock Price and a dependent variable of stock price fluctuation were selected as an optimal model. The findings of the research demonstrate that the trend of stock price could be forecasted with the lower level of error.

Keywords: Stock Price forecast, membership functions, Adaptive Neuro-Fuzzy Inference System, trade volume, P/E, DPS.

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Authors: H. Rafiei, M. Rabbani

Abstract:

A novel concept to balance and tradeoff between make-to-stock and make-to-order has been hybrid MTS/MTO production context. One of the most important decisions involved in the hybrid MTS/MTO environment is determining whether a product is manufactured to stock, to order, or hybrid MTS/MTO strategy. In this paper, a model based on analytic network process is developed to tackle the addressed decision. Since the regarded decision deals with the uncertainty and ambiguity of data as well as experts- and managers- linguistic judgments, the proposed model is equipped with fuzzy sets theory. An important attribute of the model is its generality due to diverse decision factors which are elicited from the literature and developed by the authors. Finally, the model is validated by applying to a real case study to reveal how the proposed model can actually be implemented.

Keywords: Fuzzy analytic network process, Hybrid make-tostock/ make-to-order, Order partitioning, Production planning.

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