Search results for: Land UseChanges

Authors: Sally Naji, Julie Gwilliam

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Climate change remains a challenging matter for the human and the built environment in the 21st century, where the need to consider adaptation to climate change in the development process is paramount. However, there remains a lack of information regarding how we should prepare responses to this issue, such as through developing organized and sophisticated tools enabling the adaptation process. This study aims to build a systematic framework approach to investigate the potentials that Neighborhood Sustainability Assessment tools (NSA) might offer in enabling both the analysis of the emerging adaptive capacity to climate change. The analysis of the framework presented in this paper aims to discuss this issue in three main phases. The first part attempts to link sustainability and climate change, in the context of adaptive capacity. It is argued that in deciding to promote sustainability in the context of climate change, both the resilience and vulnerability processes become central. However, there is still a gap in the current literature regarding how the sustainable development process can respond to climate change. As well as how the resilience of practical strategies might be evaluated. It is suggested that the integration of the sustainability assessment processes with both the resilience thinking process, and vulnerability might provide important components for addressing the adaptive capacity to climate change. A critical review of existing literature is presented illustrating the current lack of work in this field, integrating these three concepts in the context of addressing the adaptive capacity to climate change. The second part aims to identify the most appropriate scale at which to address the built environment for the climate change adaptation. It is suggested that the neighborhood scale can be considered as more suitable than either the building or urban scales. It then presents the example of NSAs, and discusses the need to explore their potential role in promoting the adaptive capacity to climate change. The third part of the framework presents a comparison among three example NSAs, BREEAM Communities, LEED-ND, and CASBEE-UD. These three tools have been selected as the most developed and comprehensive assessment tools that are currently available for the neighborhood scale. This study concludes that NSAs are likely to present the basis for an organized framework to address the practical process for analyzing and yet promoting Adaptive Capacity to Climate Change. It is further argued that vulnerability (exposure & sensitivity) and resilience (Interdependence & Recovery) form essential aspects to be addressed in the future assessment of NSA’s capability to adapt to both short and long term climate change impacts. Finally, it is acknowledged that further work is now required to understand impact assessment in terms of the range of physical sectors (Water, Energy, Transportation, Building, Land Use and Ecosystems), Actor and stakeholder engagement as well as a detailed evaluation of the NSA indicators, together with a barriers diagnosis process.

Keywords: Adaptive capacity, climate change, NSA tools, resilience, vulnerability.

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Authors: Ali Reza Vaezi, Naser Fakori Ivand, Fereshteh Azarifam

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Inter-rill erosion is the detachment and transfer of soil particles between the rills which occurs due to the impact of raindrops and the shear stress of shallow surface runoff. This erosion can be affected by some soil properties such as texture, amount of organic matter and stability of soil aggregates. Information on the temporal variation of inter-rill erosion during a rainfall event and the effect of soil properties on it can help develop better methods to soil conservation in the hillslopes. The importance of this study is especially grate in semi-arid regions, where the soil is weakly aggregated and vegetation cover is mostly poor. Therefore, this research was conducted to investigate the temporal variation of surface flow and inter-rill erosion and the effect of soil properties on it in some semi-arid soils. A field experiment was done in eight different soil textures under simulated rainfalls with uniform intensity. A total of twenty four plots were installed for eight study soils with three replicates in the form of a random complete block design along the land. The plots were 1.2 m (length) × 1 m (width) in dimensions which designed with a distance of 3 m from each other across the slope. Then, soil samples were purred into the plots. Rainfall simulation experiments were done using a designed portable simulator with an intensity of 60 mm per hour for 60 minutes. Runoff production and soil loss were measured during 1 hour time with 5-min intervals. Soil properties including particle size distribution, aggregate stability, bulk density, exchangeable sodium percentages (ESP) and hydraulic conductivity (Ks) were determined in the soil samples. Correlation and regression analysis was done to determine the effect of soil properties on runoff and inter-rill erosion. Results indicated that the study soils have lower both organic matter content and aggregate stability. The soils, except for coarse textured textures, are calcareous and with relatively higher ESP. Runoff production and soil loss did not occur in sand texture, which was associated with higher infiltration and drainage rates. A strong relationship was found between inter-rill erosion and surface runoff (R2 = 0.75, p < 0.01). The correlation analysis showed that surface runoff was significantly affected by some soil properties consisting of sand, silt, clay, bulk density, gravel, Ks, lime (calcium carbonate), and ESP. The soils with lower Ks such as fine-textured soils, produced higher surface runoff and more inter-rill erosion. In the soils, surface runoff production temporally increased during rainfall and finally reached a peak after about 25-35 min. Time to peak was very short (30 min) in fine-textured soils, especially clay, which was related to their lower infiltration rate.

Keywords: Erosion plot, rainfall simulator, soil properties, surface flow.

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Authors: Hayder H. Kareem, Shunqi Pan

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Groundwater is a vital water resource in many areas in the world, particularly in the Middle-East region where the water resources become scarce and depleting. Sustainable management and planning of the groundwater resources become essential and urgent given the impact of the global climate change. In the recent years, numerical models have been widely used to predict the flow pattern and assess the water resources security, as well as the groundwater quality affected by the contaminants transported. In this study, MODFLOW is used to study the current status of groundwater resources and the risk of water resource security in the region centred at Al-Najaf City, which is located in the mid-west of Iraq and adjacent to the Euphrates River. In this study, a conceptual model is built using the geologic and hydrogeologic collected for the region, together with the Digital Elevation Model (DEM) data obtained from the "Global Land Cover Facility" (GLCF) and "United State Geological Survey" (USGS) for the study area. The computer model is also implemented with the distributions of 69 wells in the area with the steady pro-defined hydraulic head along its boundaries. The model is then applied with the recharge rate (from precipitation) of 7.55 mm/year, given from the analysis of the field data in the study area for the period of 1980-2014. The hydraulic conductivity from the measurements at the locations of wells is interpolated for model use. The model is calibrated with the measured hydraulic heads at the locations of 50 of 69 wells in the domain and results show a good agreement. The standard-error-of-estimate (SEE), root-mean-square errors (RMSE), Normalized RMSE and correlation coefficient are 0.297 m, 2.087 m, 6.899% and 0.971 respectively. Sensitivity analysis is also carried out, and it is found that the model is sensitive to recharge, particularly when the rate is greater than (15mm/year). Hydraulic conductivity is found to be another parameter which can affect the results significantly, therefore it requires high quality field data. The results show that there is a general flow pattern from the west to east of the study area, which agrees well with the observations and the gradient of the ground surface. It is found that with the current operational pumping rates of the wells in the area, a dry area is resulted in Al-Najaf City due to the large quantity of groundwater withdrawn. The computed water balance with the current operational pumping quantity shows that the Euphrates River supplies water into the groundwater of approximately 11759 m³/day, instead of gaining water of 11178 m³/day from the groundwater if no pumping from the wells. It is expected that the results obtained from the study can provide important information for the sustainable and effective planning and management of the regional groundwater resources for Al-Najaf City.

Keywords: Al-Najaf city, conceptual modelling, groundwater, unconfined aquifer, visual MODFLOW.

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Authors: I. Hosni, L. Bennaceur Farah, N. Saber, R Bennaceur

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Soil moisture content is a key variable in many environmental sciences. Even though it represents a small proportion of the liquid freshwater on Earth, it modulates interactions between the land surface and the atmosphere, thereby influencing climate and weather. Accurate modeling of the above processes depends on the ability to provide a proper spatial characterization of soil moisture. The measurement of soil moisture content allows assessment of soil water resources in the field of hydrology and agronomy. The second parameter in interaction with the radar signal is the geometric structure of the soil. Most traditional electromagnetic models consider natural surfaces as single scale zero mean stationary Gaussian random processes. Roughness behavior is characterized by statistical parameters like the Root Mean Square (RMS) height and the correlation length. Then, the main problem is that the agreement between experimental measurements and theoretical values is usually poor due to the large variability of the correlation function, and as a consequence, backscattering models have often failed to predict correctly backscattering. In this study, surfaces are considered as band-limited fractal random processes corresponding to a superposition of a finite number of one-dimensional Gaussian process each one having a spatial scale. Multiscale roughness is characterized by two parameters, the first one is proportional to the RMS height, and the other one is related to the fractal dimension. Soil moisture is related to the complex dielectric constant. This multiscale description has been adapted to two-dimensional profiles using the bi-dimensional wavelet transform and the Mallat algorithm to describe more correctly natural surfaces. We characterize the soil surfaces and sub-surfaces by a three layers geo-electrical model. The upper layer is described by its dielectric constant, thickness, a multiscale bi-dimensional surface roughness model by using the wavelet transform and the Mallat algorithm, and volume scattering parameters. The lower layer is divided into three fictive layers separated by an assumed plane interface. These three layers were modeled by an effective medium characterized by an apparent effective dielectric constant taking into account the presence of air pockets in the soil. We have adopted the 2D multiscale three layers small perturbations model including, firstly air pockets in the soil sub-structure, and then a vegetable canopy in the soil surface structure, that is to simulate the radar backscattering. A sensitivity analysis of backscattering coefficient dependence on multiscale roughness and new soil moisture has been performed. Later, we proposed to change the dielectric constant of the multilayer medium because it takes into account the different moisture values of each layer in the soil. A sensitivity analysis of the backscattering coefficient, including the air pockets in the volume structure with respect to the multiscale roughness parameters and the apparent dielectric constant, was carried out. Finally, we proposed to study the behavior of the backscattering coefficient of the radar on a soil having a vegetable layer in its surface structure.

Keywords: Multiscale, bi-dimensional, wavelets, SPM, backscattering, multilayer, air pockets, vegetable.

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Authors: Alan Crowle, Philpp Thies

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s the floating offshore wind turbine industry continues to develop and grow, the capabilities of established port facilities need to be assessed as to their ability to support the expanding construction and installation requirements. This paper assesses current infrastructure requirements and projected changes to port facilities that may be required to support the floating offshore wind industry. Understanding the infrastructure needs of the floating offshore renewable industry will help to identify the port-related requirements. Floating offshore wind turbines can be installed further out to sea and in deeper waters than traditional fixed offshore wind arrays, meaning it can take advantage of stronger winds. Separate ports are required for substructure construction, fit-out of the turbines, moorings, subsea cables and maintenance. Large areas are required for the laydown of mooring equipment, inter array cables, turbine blades and nacelles. The capabilities of established port facilities to support floating wind farms are assessed by evaluation of size of substructures, height of wind turbine with regards to the cranes for fitting of blades, distance to offshore site and offshore installation vessel characteristics. The paper will discuss the advantages and disadvantages of using large land based cranes, inshore floating crane vessels or offshore crane vessels at the fit-out port for the installation of the turbine. Water depths requirements for import of materials and export of the completed structures will be considered. There are additional costs associated with any emerging technology. However, part of the popularity of Floating Offshore Wind Turbines stems from the cost savings against permanent structures like fixed wind turbines. Floating Offshore Wind Turbine developers can benefit from lighter, more cost effective equipment which can be assembled in port and towed to site rather than relying on large, expensive installation vessels to transport and erect fixed bottom turbines. The ability to assemble Floating Offshore Wind Turbines equipment on shore means minimising highly weather dependent operations like offshore heavy lifts and assembly, saving time and costs and reducing safety risks for offshore workers. Maintenance might take place in safer onshore conditions for barges and semi submersibles. Offshore renewables, such as floating wind, can take advantage of this wealth of experience, while oil and gas operators can deploy this experience at the same time as entering the renewables space. The floating offshore wind industry is in the early stages of development and port facilities are required for substructure fabrication, turbine manufacture, turbine construction and maintenance support. The paper discusses the potential floating wind substructures as this provides a snapshot of the requirements at the present time, and potential technological developments required for commercial development. Scaling effects of demonstration-scale projects will be addressed; however the primary focus will be on commercial-scale (30+ units) device floating wind energy farms.

Keywords: Floating offshore wind turbine, port logistics, installation, construction.

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Authors: R. S. Giraddi, B. Thirupam Reddy, D. N. Kambrekar

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Chilli (Capsicum annum L.) an important commercial vegetable crop is ravaged by a number of insect-pests during both vegetative and reproductive phase resulting into significant crop loss.Thrips, Scirtothripsdorsalis, mite, Polyphagotarsonemuslatus and whitefly, Bemisiatabaci are the key sap feeding insects, their infestation leads to leaf curl, stunted growth and yield loss.During flowering and fruit formation stage, gall midge fly, Asphondyliacapparis (Rubsaaman) infesting flower buds and young fruits andHelicoverpaarmigera (Hubner) feeding on matured green fruits are the important insect pests causing significant crop loss.The pest is known to infest both flower buds and young fruits resulting into malformation of flower buds and twisting of fruits.In order to manage these insect-pests a combi product consisting of imidacloprid and betacyfluthrin (Soloman 300 OD) was evaluated for its bio-efficacy, phytotoxicity and effect on predator activity.Imidacloprid, a systemic insecticide belonging to neo-nicotinoid group, is effective against insect pests such as aphids, whiteflies (sap feeders) and other insectsviz., termites and soil insects.Beta-Cyfluthrin is an insecticide of synthetic pyrethroid group which acts by contact action and ingestion. It acts on the insects' nervous system as sodium channel blocker consequently a disorder of the nervous system occurs leading finally to the death. The field experiments were taken up during 2015 and 2016 at the Main Agricultural Research Station of University of Agricultural Sciences, Dharwad, Karnataka, India.The trials were laid out in a Randomized Block Design (RBD) with three replications using popular land race of Byadagi crop variety.Results indicated that the product at 21.6 + 50.4% gai/ha (240 ml/ha) and 27.9 + 65% gai/ha (310 ml/ha) was found quite effective in controlling thrips (0.00 to 0.66 thrips per six leaves) as against the standard check insecticide recommended for thrips by the University of Agricultural Sciences, Dharwad wherein the density of thrips recorded was significantly higher (1.00 to 2.00 Nos./6 leaves). Similarly, the test insecticide was quite effective against other target insects, whiteflies, fruit borer and gall midge fly as indicated by lower insect population observed in the treatments as compared to standard insecticidal control. The predatory beetle activity was found to be normal in all experimental plots. Highest green fruit yield of 5100-5500 kg/ha was recorded in Soloman 300 OD applied crop at 310 ml/ha rate as compared to 4750 to 5050 kg/ha recorded in check. At present 6-8 sprays of insecticides are recommended for management of these insect-pests on the crop. If combi-products are used in pest management programmes, it is possible to reduce insecticide usages in crop ecosystem.

Keywords: Imidacloprid, Betacyfluthrin, gallmidge fly, thrips, chilli.

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Authors: Márcia Afonso, Cristina Fael, Marisa Dinis-Almeida

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Population growth in cities has led to an increase in the infrastructures construction, including buildings and roadways. This aspect leads directly to the soils waterproofing. In turn, changes in precipitation patterns are developing into higher and more frequent intensities. Thus, these two conjugated aspects decrease the rainwater infiltration into soils and increase the volume of surface runoff. The practice of green and sustainable urban solutions has encouraged research in these areas. The porous asphalt pavement, as a green infrastructure, is part of practical solutions set to address urban challenges related to land use and adaptation to climate change. In this field, permeable pavements with porous asphalt mixtures (PA) have several advantages in terms of reducing the runoff generated by the floods. The porous structure of these pavements, compared to a conventional asphalt pavement, allows the rainwater infiltration in the subsoil, and consequently, the water quality improvement. This green infrastructure solution can be applied in cities, particularly in streets or parking lots to mitigate the floods effects. Over the years, the pores of these pavements can be filled by sediment, reducing their function in the rainwater infiltration. Thus, double layer porous asphalt (DLPA) was developed to mitigate the clogging effect and facilitate the water infiltration into the lower layers. This study intends to deepen the knowledge of the performance of DLPA when subjected to clogging. The experimental methodology consisted on four evaluation phases of the DLPA infiltration capacity submitted to three precipitation events (100, 200 and 300 mm/h) in each phase. The evaluation first phase determined the behavior after DLPA construction. In phases two and three, two 500 g/m² clogging cycles were performed, totaling a 1000 g/m² final simulation. Sand with gradation accented in fine particles was used as clogging material. In the last phase, the DLPA was subjected to simple sweeping and vacuuming maintenance. A precipitation simulator, type sprinkler, capable of simulating the real precipitation was developed for this purpose. The main conclusions show that the DLPA has the capacity to drain the water, even after two clogging cycles. The infiltration results of flows lead to an efficient performance of the DPLA in the surface runoff attenuation, since this was not observed in any of the evaluation phases, even at intensities of 200 and 300 mm/h, simulating intense precipitation events. The infiltration capacity under clogging conditions decreased about 7% on average in the three intensities relative to the initial performance that is after construction. However, this was restored when subjected to simple maintenance, recovering the DLPA hydraulic functionality. In summary, the study proved the efficacy of using a DLPA when it retains thicker surface sediments and limits the fine sediments entry to the remaining layers. At the same time, it is guaranteed the rainwater infiltration and the surface runoff reduction and is therefore a viable solution to put into practice in permeable pavements.

Keywords: Clogging, double layer porous asphalt, infiltration capacity, rainfall intensity.

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Authors: Ahmad Kayvani Fard, Yehia Manawi

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Qatar’s primary source of fresh water is through seawater desalination. Amongst the major processes that are commercially available on the market, the most common large scale techniques are Multi-Stage Flash distillation (MSF), Multi Effect distillation (MED), and Reverse Osmosis (RO). Although commonly used, these three processes are highly expensive down to high energy input requirements and high operating costs allied with maintenance and stress induced on the systems in harsh alkaline media. Beside that cost, environmental footprint of these desalination techniques are significant; from damaging marine eco-system, to huge land use, to discharge of tons of GHG and huge carbon footprint. Other less energy consuming techniques based on membrane separation are being sought to reduce both the carbon footprint and operating costs is membrane distillation (MD). Emerged in 1960s, MD is an alternative technology for water desalination attracting more attention since 1980s. MD process involves the evaporation of a hot feed, typically below boiling point of brine at standard conditions, by creating a water vapor pressure difference across the porous, hydrophobic membrane. Main advantages of MD compared to other commercially available technologies (MSF and MED) and specially RO are reduction of membrane and module stress due to absence of trans-membrane pressure, less impact of contaminant fouling on distillate due to transfer of only water vapor, utilization of low grade or waste heat from oil and gas industries to heat up the feed up to required temperature difference across the membrane, superior water quality, and relatively lower capital and operating cost. To achieve the objective of this study, state of the art flat-sheet cross-flow DCMD bench scale unit was designed, commissioned, and tested. The objective of this study is to analyze the characteristics and morphology of the membrane suitable for DCMD through SEM imaging and contact angle measurement and to study the water quality of distillate produced by DCMD bench scale unit. Comparison with available literature data is undertaken where appropriate and laboratory data is used to compare a DCMD distillate quality with that of other desalination techniques and standards. Membrane SEM analysis showed that the PTFE membrane used for the study has contact angle of 127º with highly porous surface supported with less porous and bigger pore size PP membrane. Study on the effect of feed solution (salinity) and temperature on water quality of distillate produced from ICP and IC analysis showed that with any salinity and different feed temperature (up to 70ºC) the electric conductivity of distillate is less than 5 μS/cm with 99.99% salt rejection and proved to be feasible and effective process capable of consistently producing high quality distillate from very high feed salinity solution (i.e. 100000 mg/L TDS) even with substantial quality difference compared to other desalination methods such as RO and MSF.

Keywords: Membrane Distillation, Waste Heat, Seawater Desalination, Membrane, Freshwater, Direct Contact Membrane Distillation

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Authors: N. K. Ambujam, V. Sudha

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Reservoirs are being contaminated all around the world with point source and Non-Point Source (NPS) pollution. The most common NPS pollutants are sediments and nutrients. Krishnagiri Reservoir (KR) has been chosen for the present case study, which is located in the tropical semi-arid climatic zone of Tamil Nadu, South India. It is the main source of surface water in Krishnagiri district to meet the freshwater demands. The reservoir has lost about 40% of its water holding capacity due to sedimentation over the period of 50 years. Hence, from the research and management perspective, there is a need for a sound knowledge on the spatial and seasonal variations of KR water quality. The present study encompasses the specific objectives as (i) to investigate the longitudinal heterogeneity and seasonal variations of physicochemical parameters, nutrients and biological characteristics of KR water and (ii) to examine the extent of degradation of water quality in KR. 15 sampling points were identified by uniform stratified method and a systematic monthly sampling strategy was selected due to high dynamic nature in its hydrological characteristics. The physicochemical parameters, major ions, nutrients and Chlorophyll a (Chl a) were analysed. Trophic status of KR was classified by using Carlson's Trophic State Index (TSI). All statistical analyses were performed by using Statistical Package for Social Sciences programme, version-16.0. Spatial maps were prepared for Chl a using Arc GIS. Observations in KR pointed out that electrical conductivity and major ions are highly variable factors as it receives inflow from the catchment with different land use activities. The study of major ions in KR exhibited different trends in their values and it could be concluded that as the monsoon progresses the major ions in the water decreases or water quality stabilizes. The inflow point of KR showed comparatively higher concentration of nutrients including nitrate, soluble reactive phosphorus (SRP), total phosphors (TP), total suspended phosphorus (TSP) and total dissolved phosphorus (TDP) during monsoon seasons. This evidently showed the input of significant amount of nutrients from the catchment side through agricultural runoff. High concentration of TDP and TSP at the lacustrine zone of the reservoir during summer season evidently revealed that there was a significant release of phosphorus from the bottom sediments. Carlson’s TSI of KR ranged between 81 and 92 during northeast monsoon and summer seasons. High and permanent Cyanobacterial bloom in KR could be mainly due to the internal loading of phosphorus from the bottom sediments. According to Carlson’s TSI classification Krishnagiri reservoir was ranked in the hyper-eutrophic category. This study provides necessary basic data on the spatio-temporal variations of water quality in KR and also proves the impact of point and NPS pollution from the catchment area. High TSI warrants a greater threat for the recovery of internal P loading and hyper-eutrophic condition of KR. Several expensive internal measures for the reduction of internal loading of P were introduced by many scientists. However, the outcome of the present research suggests for the innovative algae harvesting technique for the removal of sediment nutrients.

Keywords: Hyper-eutrophication, Krishnagiri reservoir, nutrients, NPS pollution.

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Authors: Sujana Dhar, Asis Mazumdar

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The effects of global warming on India vary from the submergence of low-lying islands and coastal lands to the melting of glaciers in the Indian Himalayas, threatening the volumetric flow rate of many of the most important rivers of India and South Asia. In India, such effects are projected to impact millions of lives. As a result of ongoing climate change, the climate of India has become increasingly volatile over the past several decades; this trend is expected to continue. Climate change is one of the most important global environmental challenges, with implications for food production, water supply, health, energy, etc. Addressing climate change requires a good scientific understanding as well as coordinated action at national and global level. The climate change issue is part of the larger challenge of sustainable development. As a result, climate policies can be more effective when consistently embedded within broader strategies designed to make national and regional development paths more sustainable. The impact of climate variability and change, climate policy responses, and associated socio-economic development will affect the ability of countries to achieve sustainable development goals. A very well calibrated Soil and Water Assessment Tool (R2 = 0.9968, NSE = 0.91) was exercised over the Khatra sub basin of the Kangsabati River watershed in Bankura district of West Bengal, India, in order to evaluate projected parameters for agricultural activities. Evapotranspiration, Transmission Losses, Potential Evapotranspiration and Lateral Flow to reach are evaluated from the years 2041-2050 in order to generate a picture for sustainable development of the river basin and its inhabitants. India has a significant stake in scientific advancement as well as an international understanding to promote mitigation and adaptation. This requires improved scientific understanding, capacity building, networking and broad consultation processes. This paper is a commitment towards the planning, management and development of the water resources of the Kangsabati River by presenting detailed future scenarios of the Kangsabati river basin, Khatra sub basin, over the mentioned time period. India-s economy and societal infrastructures are finely tuned to the remarkable stability of the Indian monsoon, with the consequence that vulnerability to small changes in monsoon rainfall is very high. In 2002 the monsoon rains failed during July, causing profound loss of agricultural production with a drop of over 3% in India-s GDP. Neither the prolonged break in the monsoon nor the seasonal rainfall deficit was predicted. While the general features of monsoon variability and change are fairly well-documented, the causal mechanisms and the role of regional ecosystems in modulating the changes are still not clear. Current climate models are very poor at modelling the Asian monsoon: this is a challenging and critical region where the ocean, atmosphere, land surface and mountains all interact. The impact of climate change on regional ecosystems is likewise unknown. The potential for the monsoon to become more volatile has major implications for India itself and for economies worldwide. Knowledge of future variability of the monsoon system, particularly in the context of global climate change, is of great concern for regional water and food security. The major findings of this paper were that of all the chosen projected parameters, transmission losses, soil water content, potential evapotranspiration, evapotranspiration and lateral flow to reach, display an increasing trend over the time period of years 2041- 2050.

Keywords: Change, future water availability scenario, modeling, SWAT, global warming, sustainability.

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