Search results for: non parametric methods

Authors: Dursun Aydın

Abstract:

In this paper, estimation of the linear regression model is made by ordinary least squares method and the partially linear regression model is estimated by penalized least squares method using smoothing spline. Then, it is investigated that differences and similarity in the sum of squares related for linear regression and partial linear regression models (semi-parametric regression models). It is denoted that the sum of squares in linear regression is reduced to sum of squares in partial linear regression models. Furthermore, we indicated that various sums of squares in the linear regression are similar to different deviance statements in partial linear regression. In addition to, coefficient of the determination derived in linear regression model is easily generalized to coefficient of the determination of the partial linear regression model. For this aim, it is made two different applications. A simulated and a real data set are considered to prove the claim mentioned here. In this way, this study is supported with a simulation and a real data example.

Keywords: Partial Linear Regression Model, Linear RegressionModel, Residuals, Deviance, Smoothing Spline.

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Authors: Mehdi Kheradmand, Mehdi Azhdary Moghaddam, Abdolreza Zahiri, Mohadeseh Kheradmand

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Determining the flow discharge in meandering channels with a compound cross section is associated with problems due to the complex hydraulic structure of the flow in the meander belt, which can be attributed to different and ever-changing geometric shapes of the meander. This research paper intends to study the accuracy of several one-dimensional experimental methods in determining the flow discharge. To this end, the results of laboratory data related to four meandering compound channels have been used, and the accuracy of three important methods to determine the flow discharge have been checked in these channels.

Keywords: Flow discharge determination, meandering compound channel, compound section, meandering rivers.

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Authors: Ayesha Sohail, Khadija Maqbool, Anila Asif, Haroon Ahmad

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These days, the field of tissue engineering is getting serious attention due to its usefulness. Bone tissue engineering helps to address and sort-out the critical sized and non-healing orthopedic problems by the creation of manmade bone tissue. We will design and validate an efficient numerical model, which will simulate the effective diffusivity in bone tissue engineering. Our numerical model will be based on the finite element analysis of the diffusion-reaction equations. It will have the ability to optimize the diffusivity, even at multi-scale, with the variation of time. It will also have a special feature “parametric sweep”, with which we will be able to predict the oxygen, glucose and cell density dynamics, more accurately. We will fix these problems by modifying the governing equations, by selecting appropriate spatio-temporal finite element schemes and by transient analysis.

Keywords: Bone tissue engineering, Transient Analysis, Scaffolds, fabrication techniques.

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Authors: Eduardo C. Guardia, Jose W. M. Lima, Afonso H. M. Santos

Abstract:

This paper presents a nonparametric method to obtain the hazard rate “Bathtub curve” for power system components. The model is a mixture of the three known phases of a component life, the decreasing failure rate (DFR), the constant failure rate (CFR) and the increasing failure rate (IFR) represented by three parametric Weibull models. The parameters are obtained from a simultaneous fitting process of the model to the Kernel nonparametric hazard rate curve. From the Weibull parameters and failure rate curves the useful lifetime and the characteristic lifetime were defined. To demonstrate the model the historic time-to-failure of distribution transformers were used as an example. The resulted “Bathtub curve” shows the failure rate for the equipment lifetime which can be applied in economic and replacement decision models.

Keywords: Bathtub curve, failure analysis, lifetime estimation, parameter estimation, Weibull distribution.

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Authors: Osa D Egonwa

Abstract:

In the 21^st century, the disciplinary boundaries of past centuries that we often create through mainstream art historical classification, techniques and sources may have been eroded by visual culture, which seems to provide a more inclusive umbrella for the new ways artists go about the creative process and its resultant commodities. Over the past four decades, artists in Africa have resorted to new materials, techniques and themes which have affected our ways of research on these artists and their art. Frontline artists such as El Anatsui, Yinka Shonibare, Erasmus Onyishi are demonstrating that any material is just suitable for artistic expression. Most of times, these materials come with their own techniques/effects and visual syntax: a combination of materials compounds techniques, formal aesthetic indexes, halo effects, and iconography. This tends to challenge the categories and we lean on to view, think and talk about them. This renders our main stream art historical research methods inadequate, thus suggesting new discursive concepts, terms and theories. This paper proposed the Africanist eclectic methods derived from the dual framework of Masquerade Theory and What Comes Behind Six is More Than Seven. This paper shares thoughts/research on art historical methods, terminological re-alignments on classification/source data, presentational format and interpretation arising from the emergent trends in our subject. The outcome provides useful tools to mediate new thoughts and experiences in recent African art and visual culture.

Keywords: Art Historical Methods, Classifications, Concepts , Re-alignment.

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Authors: Kyogun Chang, Yoon Bok Lee

Abstract:

Fault detection determines faultexistence and detecting time. This paper discusses two layered fault detection methods to enhance the reliability and safety. Two layered fault detection methods consist of fault detection methods of component level controllers and system level controllers. Component level controllers detect faults by using limit checking, model-based detection, and data-driven detection and system level controllers execute detection by stability analysis which can detect unknown changes. System level controllers compare detection results via stability with fault signals from lower level controllers. This paper addresses fault detection methods via stability and suggests fault detection criteria in nonlinear systems. The fault detection method applies tothe hybrid control unit of a military hybrid electric vehicleso that the hybrid control unit can detect faults of the traction motor.

Keywords: Two Layered Fault Detection, Stability Analysis, Fault-Tolerant Control

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Authors: E. Farsad, S. P. Abbasi, A. Goodarzi, M. S. Zabihi

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Nowadays, quasi-continuous wave diode lasers are used in a widespread variety of applications. Temperature effects in these lasers can strongly influence their performance. In this paper, the effects of temperature have been experimentally investigated on different features of a 60W-QCW diode laser. The obtained results indicate that the conversion efficiency and operation voltage of diode laser decrease with the augmentation of the working temperature associated with a redshift in the laser peak wavelength. Experimental results show the emission peak wavelength of laser shifts 0.26 nm and the conversion efficiency decreases 1.76 % with the increase of temperature from 40 to 50 ̊C. Present study also shows the slope efficiency decreases gradually at low temperatures and rapidly at higher temperatures. Regarding the close dependence of the mentioned parameters to the operating temperature, it is of great importance to carefully control the working temperature of diode laser, particularly for medical applications.

Keywords: diode laser, experimentally, temperature, wavelength

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Authors: Norazam Arbin, Ishak Hashim

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Double-diffusive natural convection in an open top square cavity and heated from the side is studied numerically. Constant temperatures and concentration are imposed along the right and left walls while the heat balance at the surface is assumed to obey Newton-s law of cooling. The finite difference method is used to solve the dimensionless governing equations. The numerical results are reported for the effect of Marangoni number, Biot number and Prandtl number on the contours of streamlines, temperature and concentration. The predicted results for the average Nusselt number and Sherwood number are presented for various parametric conditions. The parameters involved are as follows; the thermal Marangoni number, 0 ≤ MaT ≤1000 , the solutal Marangoni number, 0 1000 c ≤ Ma ≤ , the Biot number, 0 ≤ Bi ≤ 6 , Grashof number, 5 Gr = 10 and aspect ratio 1. The study focused on both flows; thermal dominated, N = 0.8 , and compositional dominated, N = 1.3 .

Keywords: Double-diffusive, Marangoni effects, heat and mass transfer.

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Authors: H. Abaali, M. T. Lamchich, M. Raoufi

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There are a variety of reference current identification methods, for the shunt active power filter (SAPF), such as the instantaneous active and reactive power, the instantaneous active and reactive current and the synchronous detection method are evaluated and compared under ideal, non sinusoidal and unbalanced voltage conditions. The SAPF performances, for the investigated identification methods, are tested for a non linear load. The simulation results, using Matlab Power System Blockset Toolbox from a complete structure, are presented and discussed.

Keywords: Shunt active power filter, Current perturbation, Non sinusoidal and unbalanced voltage conditions.

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Authors: Shaila Rana, Wasim Alhamdani

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Effective cybersecurity training is of the utmost importance, given the plethora of attacks that continue to increase in complexity and ubiquity. VR cybersecurity training remains a starkly understudied discipline. Studies that evaluated the effectiveness of VR cybersecurity training over traditional methods are required. An engaging and interactive platform can support knowledge retention of the training material. Consequently, an effective form of cybersecurity training is required to support a culture of cybersecurity awareness. Measurements of effectiveness varied throughout the studies, with surveys and observations being the two most utilized forms of evaluating effectiveness. Further research is needed to evaluate the effectiveness of VR cybersecurity training and traditional training. Additionally, research for evaluating if VR cybersecurity training is more effective than traditional methods is vital. This paper proposes a methodology to compare the two cybersecurity training methods and their effectiveness. The proposed framework includes developing both VR and traditional cybersecurity training methods and delivering them to at least 100 users. A quiz along with a survey will be administered and statistically analyzed to determine if there is a difference in knowledge retention and user satisfaction. The aim of this paper is to bring attention to the need to study VR cybersecurity training and its effectiveness compared to traditional training methods. This paper hopes to contribute to the cybersecurity training field by providing an effective way to train users for security awareness. If VR training is deemed more effective, this could create a new direction for cybersecurity training practices.

Keywords: Virtual reality cybersecurity training, VR cybersecurity training, traditional cybersecurity training, evaluating efficacy.

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Authors: M. E. Abou-Hashem El Dib, M. K. Swailem, M. M. Metwally, A. I. El Awady

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The present work illustrates a parametric study for the effect of stiffeners on the performance of slender built up steel I-columns. To achieve the desired analysis, finite element technique is used to develop nonlinear three-dimensional models representing the investigated columns. The finite element program (ANSYS 13.0) is used as a calculation tool for the necessary nonlinear analysis. A validation of the obtained numerical results is achieved. The considered parameters in the study are the column slenderness ratio and the horizontal stiffener's dimensions as well as the number of stiffeners. The dimensions of the stiffeners considered in the analysis are the stiffener width and the stiffener thickness. Numerical results signify a considerable effect of stiffeners on the performance and failure load of slender built up steel I-columns.

Keywords: Steel I-columns, local buckling, slender, stiffener, thin walled section.

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Authors: I. Nassiri, B. Goliaei, M. Tavassoli

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The ability to distinguish missense nucleotide substitutions that contribute to harmful effect from those that do not is a difficult problem usually accomplished through functional in vivo analyses. In this study, instead current biochemical methods, the effects of missense mutations upon protein structure and function were assayed by means of computational methods and information from the databases. For this order, the effects of new missense mutations in exon 5 of PTEN gene upon protein structure and function were examined. The gene coding for PTEN was identified and localized on chromosome region 10q23.3 as the tumor suppressor gene. The utilization of these methods were shown that c.319G>A and c.341T>G missense mutations that were recognized in patients with breast cancer and Cowden disease, could be pathogenic. This method could be use for analysis of missense mutation in others genes.

Keywords: Bioinformatics, missense mutations, PTEN tumorsuppressor gene.

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Authors: Kyoung Hoon Kim

Abstract:

Gas turbine systems with wet compression have a potential for future power generation, since they can offer a high efficiency and a high specific power with a relatively low cost. In this study influence of ambient condition on the performance of the wet compression process is investigated with a non-equilibrium analytical modeling based on droplet evaporation. Transient behaviors of droplet diameter and temperature of mixed air are investigated for various ambient temperatures. Special attention is paid for the effects of ambient temperature, pressure ratio, and water injection ratios on the important wet compression variables including compressor outlet temperature and compression work. Parametric studies show that downing of the ambient temperature leads to lower compressor outlet temperature and consequently lower consumption of compression work even in wet compression processes.

Keywords: water injection, droplet evaporation, wet compression, gas turbine, ambient condition

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Authors: A. Rouili

Abstract:

In the present paper the results of a numerical study are presented, numerical models were developed to simulate the behaviour of vertical massive dikes. The proposed models were developed according to the geometry, boundary conditions, loading conditions and initial conditions of a physical model taken as reference. The results obtained were compared to the experimental data. As far as the overall behaviour, the displacements and the failure mechanisms of the dikes is concerned, the numerical results were in good agreement with the experimental results, which clearly indicates a good quality of numerical modelling. The validated numerical models were used in a parametric study were the displacements and failure mechanisms were fully investigated. Out of the results obtained, some conclusions and recommendations related to the design of massive dikes are proposed.

Keywords: Water conservation, dikes, risk assessment and numerical modelling.

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Authors: Adnan Al-Smadi

Abstract:

One of the primary uses of higher order statistics in signal processing has been for detecting and estimation of non- Gaussian signals in Gaussian noise of unknown covariance. This is motivated by the ability of higher order statistics to suppress additive Gaussian noise. In this paper, several methods to test for non- Gaussianity of a given process are presented. These methods include histogram plot, kurtosis test, and hypothesis testing using cumulants and bispectrum of the available sequence. The hypothesis testing is performed by constructing a statistic to test whether the bispectrum of the given signal is non-zero. A zero bispectrum is not a proof of Gaussianity. Hence, other tests such as the kurtosis test should be employed. Examples are given to demonstrate the performance of the presented methods.

Keywords: Non-Gaussian, bispectrum, kurtosis, hypothesistesting, histogram.

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Authors: O. Pop, C. Barbulescu, M. Nemes, St. Kilyeni

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The tracing methods determine the contribution the power system sources have in their supplying. These methods can be used to assess the transmission prices, but also to recover the transmission fixed cost. In this paper is presented the influence of the modification of commons structure has on the specific price of transfer and on active power losses. The authors propose a power losses allocation method, based on Kirschen-s method. The system operator must make use of a few basic principles about allocation. The only necessary information is the power flows on system branches and the modifications applied to power system buses. In order to illustrate this method, the 25-bus test system is used, elaborated within the Electrical Power Engineering Department, from Timisoara, Romania.

Keywords: Power systems, P-U bus, P-Q bus, loss allocation, traceability methods.

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Authors: Jinsuk Yang, Choongjae Joo, Kyoungsu Oh

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Existing methods in which the animation data of all frames are stored and reproduced as with vertex animation cannot be used in mobile device environments because these methods use large amounts of the memory. So 3D animation data reduction methods aimed at solving this problem have been extensively studied thus far and we propose a new method as follows. First, we find and remove frames in which motion changes are small out of all animation frames and store only the animation data of remaining frames (involving large motion changes). When playing the animation, the removed frame areas are reconstructed using the interpolation of the remaining frames. Our key contribution is to calculate the accelerations of the joints of individual frames and the standard deviations of the accelerations using the information of joint locations in the relevant 3D model in order to find and delete frames in which motion changes are small. Our methods can reduce data sizes by approximately 50% or more while providing quality which is not much lower compared to original animations. Therefore, our method is expected to be usefully used in mobile device environments or other environments in which memory sizes are limited.

Keywords: Data Reduction, Interpolation, Vertex Animation, 3D Animation.

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Authors: Sahar Noori, Seyed Amir Hossein, Mohammad Ebrahimi

Abstract:

This paper is devoted to predict laminar and turbulent heating rates around blunt re-entry spacecraft at hypersonic conditions. Heating calculation of a hypersonic body is normally performed during the critical part of its flight trajectory. The procedure is of an inverse method, where a shock wave is assumed, and the body shape that supports this shock, as well as the flowfield between the shock and body, are calculated. For simplicity the normal momentum equation is replaced with a second order pressure relation; this simplification significantly reduces computation time. The geometries specified in this research, are parabola and ellipsoids which may have conical after bodies. An excellent agreement is observed between the results obtained in this paper and those calculated by others- research. Since this method is much faster than Navier-Stokes solutions, it can be used in preliminary design, parametric study of hypersonic vehicles.

Keywords: Aerodynamic Heating, Blunt Body, Hypersonic Flow, Laminar, Turbulent.

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Authors: Almudena Konrad, Tomás Galguera

Abstract:

Lack of motivation and interest is a serious obstacle to students’ learning computing skills. A need exists for a knowledge base on effective pedagogy and curricula to teach computer programming. This paper presents results from research evaluating a six-year project designed to teach complex concepts in computer programming collaboratively, while supporting students to continue developing their computer thinking and related coding skills individually. Utilizing a quasi-experimental, mixed methods design, the pedagogical approaches and methods were assessed in two contrasting groups of students with different socioeconomic status, gender, and age composition. Analyses of quantitative data from Likert-scale surveys and an evaluation rubric, combined with qualitative data from reflective writing exercises and semi-structured interviews yielded convincing evidence of the project’s success at both teaching and inspiring students.

Keywords: Computational thinking, computing education, computer programming curriculum, logic, teaching methods.

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Authors: B. A. Lawal, B. R. Singh, G. A. Babaji, P. A. Tsado

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The two widely used methods base on the sedimentation principle (Bouyoucos hydrometer and International pipette) for particle-size analysis were comparatively evaluated on soils collected from various locations in Sudan savanna of Nigeria particularly from Sokoto and Zamfara States. The hydrometer method under-estimated the silt and over-estimated the clay content. Also, the hydrometer reading proved difficult and tended to submerge when floated for clay reading in the suspension of very sandy soils (900g kg-1 sand). Furthermore, the results from the two methods were validated by subjecting the data to USDA soil textural triangle to determine their textural class names. The outcome was that 91.67 % of the experimental soils retained the same textural class names irrespective of the method. Thus, Bouyoucos hydrometer method may conveniently find a place in routine work in view of its simplicity, rapidity, and strong correlation with the pipette method.

Keywords: Hydrometer and pipette methods, particle-size analysis, sedimentation.

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Authors: Wen-Lung Huang, Shih-Pin Chen

Abstract:

This paper investigates the optimization problem of multi-product aggregate production planning (APP) with fuzzy data. From a comprehensive viewpoint of conserving the fuzziness of input information, this paper proposes a method that can completely describe the membership function of the performance measure. The idea is based on the well-known Zadeh-s extension principle which plays an important role in fuzzy theory. In the proposed solution procedure, a pair of mathematical programs parameterized by possibility level a is formulated to calculate the bounds of the optimal performance measure at a . Then the membership function of the optimal performance measure is constructed by enumerating different values of a . Solutions obtained from the proposed method contain more information, and can offer more chance to achieve the feasible disaggregate plan. This is helpful to the decision-maker in practical applications.

Keywords: fuzzy data, aggregate production planning, membership function, parametric programming

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Authors: Vijay Shankar

Abstract:

Evapotranspiration (ET) is a major component of the hydrologic cycle and its accurate estimation is essential for hydrological studies. In past, various estimation methods have been developed for different climatological data, and the accuracy of these methods varies with climatic conditions. Reference crop evapotranspiration (ET0) is a key variable in procedures established for estimating evapotranspiration rates of agricultural crops. Values of ET0 are used with crop coefficients for many aspects of irrigation and water resources planning and management. Numerous methods are used for estimating ET0. As per internationally accepted procedures outlined in the United Nations Food and Agriculture Organization-s Irrigation and Drainage Paper No. 56(FAO-56), use of Penman-Monteith equation is recommended for computing ET0 from ground based climatological observations. In the present study, seven methods have been selected for performance evaluation. User friendly software has been developed using programming language visual basic. The visual basic has ability to create graphical environment using less coding. For given data availability the developed software estimates reference evapotranspiration for any given area and period for which data is available. The accuracy of the software has been checked by the examples given in FAO-56.The developed software is a user friendly tool for estimating ET0 under different data availability and climatic conditions.

Keywords: Crop coefficient, Crop evapotranspiration, Field moisture, Irrigation Scheduling.

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Authors: M. Ali, K. Masood

Abstract:

In this paper methodology to exploit creeping wave for body area network BAN communication reliability are described. Creeping wave propagation effects are visualized & analyzed. During this work Dipole, IA antennas various antennas were redesigned using existing designs and their propagation characteristics were verified for optimum performance when used on BANs. These antennas were then applied on body shapes-including rectangular, spherical and cylindrical so that all the effects of actual human body can be taken nearly into account. Parametric simulation scheme was devised so that on Body channel characterization can be visualized at front, curved and back region. In the next phase multiple inputs multiple output MIMO scheme was introduced where virtual antennas were used in order to diminish the effects of antennas on the propagation of waves. Results were, extracted and analyzed at different heights. Finally based on comparative measurement and analysis it was concluded that on body propagation can be exploited to gain spatial diversity.

Keywords: BAN, Creeping Wave, MIMO, WIAs.

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Authors: M. Kucukali Ozturk, Y. Beceren, B. Nergis

Abstract:

The study discussed in this paper was conducted in an attempt to investigate effects of different drying methods (line dry and tumble dry) on viscose single jersey fabrics knitted with ring yarn.

Keywords: Color change, dimensional properties, drying method, fabric tightness, physical properties.

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Authors: Deepak Kumar, Vivek Kumar, V. P. Singh

Abstract:

This paper describes a steady state model of a multiple effect evaporator system for simulation and control purposes. The model includes overall as well as component mass balance equations, energy balance equations and heat transfer rate equations for area calculations for all the effects. Each effect in the process is represented by a number of variables which are related by the energy and material balance equations for the feed, product and vapor flow for backward, mixed and split feed. For simulation 'fsolve' solver in MATLAB source code is used. The optimality of three sequences i.e. backward, mixed and splitting feed is studied by varying the various input parameters.

Keywords: MATLAB "fsolve" solver, multiple effectevaporators, black liquor, feeding sequences.

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Authors: A. G. Sifalakis, E. P. Papadopoulou, Y. G. Saridakis

Abstract:

A generalized Dirichlet to Neumann map is one of the main aspects characterizing a recently introduced method for analyzing linear elliptic PDEs, through which it became possible to couple known and unknown components of the solution on the boundary of the domain without solving on its interior. For its numerical solution, a well conditioned quadratically convergent sine-Collocation method was developed, which yielded a linear system of equations with the diagonal blocks of its associated coefficient matrix being point diagonal. This structural property, among others, initiated interest for the employment of iterative methods for its solution. In this work we present a conclusive numerical study for the behavior of classical (Jacobi and Gauss-Seidel) and Krylov subspace (GMRES and Bi-CGSTAB) iterative methods when they are applied for the solution of the Dirichlet to Neumann map associated with the Laplace-s equation on regular polygons with the same boundary conditions on all edges.

Keywords: Elliptic PDEs, Dirichlet to Neumann Map, Global Relation, Collocation, Iterative Methods, Jacobi, Gauss-Seidel, GMRES, Bi-CGSTAB.

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Authors: Mária Stachová, Lukáš Sobíšek

Abstract:

Data mining incorporates a group of statistical methods used to analyze a set of information, or a data set. It operates with models and algorithms, which are powerful tools with the great potential. They can help people to understand the patterns in certain chunk of information so it is obvious that the data mining tools have a wide area of applications. For example in the theoretical chemistry data mining tools can be used to predict moleculeproperties or improve computer-assisted drug design. Classification analysis is one of the major data mining methodologies. The aim of thecontribution is to create a classification model, which would be able to deal with a huge data set with high accuracy. For this purpose logistic regression, Bayesian logistic regression and random forest models were built using R software. TheBayesian logistic regression in Latent GOLD software was created as well. These classification methods belong to supervised learning methods. It was necessary to reduce data matrix dimension before construct models and thus the factor analysis (FA) was used. Those models were applied to predict the biological activity of molecules, potential new drug candidates.

Keywords: data mining, classification, drug design, QSAR

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Authors: S. H. Yahaya, J. M. Ali, T.A. Abdullah

Abstract:

The exploration of this paper will focus on the Cshaped transition curve. This curve is designed by using the concept of circle to circle where one circle lies inside other. The degree of smoothness employed is curvature continuity. The function used in designing the C-curve is Bézier-like cubic function. This function has a low degree, flexible for the interactive design of curves and surfaces and has a shape parameter. The shape parameter is used to control the C-shape curve. Once the C-shaped curve design is completed, this curve will be applied to design spur gear tooth. After the tooth design procedure is finished, the design will be analyzed by using Finite Element Analysis (FEA). This analysis is used to find out the applicability of the tooth design and the gear material that chosen. In this research, Cast Iron 4.5 % Carbon, ASTM A-48 is selected as a gear material.

Keywords: Bézier-like cubic function, Curvature continuity, Cshapedtransition curve, Spur gear tooth.

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Authors: R. Mahjoub, K. Maghsoudi Mehraban

Abstract:

Since the heart of the hybrid system is the fuel cell and it has vital impact on efficiency and performance of cycle, in this study, the major modeling of electrochemical reaction within the fuel cell is analyzed. Also, solid oxide fuel cell is integrated with the gas turbine and thermodynamic analysis on different elements of hybrid system is applied. Next, in predefined operational points of hybrid cycle, the simulation results are obtained. Then, different source of irreversibility in fuel cell is modeled and influence of different major parameters on different irreversibility is computed and applied. Then, the effect of important parameters such as thickness and surface of electrolyte fuel cell are simulated in fuel cell and its dependency to these parameters is explained. At the end of the paper, different impact of parameters on fuel cell with a gas turbine and current density and voltage of fuel cell are simulated.

Keywords: Electrochemical analysis, Gas turbine, Hybrid system, Irreversibility analysis.

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Authors: C. V. Pietreanu, S. E. Zaharia, C. Dinu

Abstract:

The present research is built on three major pillars, commencing by making some considerations on accident investigation methods and pointing out both defining aspects and differences between linear and non-linear analysis. The traditional linear focus on accident analysis describes accidents as a sequence of events, while the latest systemic models outline interdependencies between different factors and define the processes evolution related to a specific (normal) situation. Linear and non-linear accident analysis methods have specific limitations, so the second point of interest is mirrored by the aim to discover the drawbacks of systemic models which becomes a starting point for developing new directions to identify risks or data closer to the cause of incidents/accidents. Since communication represents a critical issue in the interaction of human factor and has been proved to be the answer of the problems made by possible breakdowns in different communication procedures, from this focus point, on the third pylon a new error-modeling instrument suitable for risk assessment/accident analysis will be elaborated.

Keywords: Accident analysis, multi-factorial error modeling, risk, systemic methods.

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