Search results for: Probabilistic regression automata
Commenced in January 2007
Frequency: Monthly
Edition: International
Paper Count: 993

Search results for: Probabilistic regression automata

723 Finding a Solution, all Solutions, or the Most Probable Solution to a Temporal Interval Algebra Network

Authors: André Trudel, Haiyi Zhang

Abstract:

Over the years, many implementations have been proposed for solving IA networks. These implementations are concerned with finding a solution efficiently. The primary goal of our implementation is simplicity and ease of use. We present an IA network implementation based on finite domain non-binary CSPs, and constraint logic programming. The implementation has a GUI which permits the drawing of arbitrary IA networks. We then show how the implementation can be extended to find all the solutions to an IA network. One application of finding all the solutions, is solving probabilistic IA networks.

Keywords: Constraint logic programming, CSP, logic, temporalreasoning.

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722 Effect of Soil Corrosion in Failures of Buried Gas Pipelines

Authors: Saima Ali, Pathamanathan Rajeev, Imteaz A. Monzur

Abstract:

In this paper, a brief review of the corrosion mechanism in buried pipe and modes of failure is provided together with the available corrosion models. Moreover, the sensitivity analysis is performed to understand the influence of corrosion model parameters on the remaining life estimation. Further, the probabilistic analysis is performed to propagate the uncertainty in the corrosion model on the estimation of the renaming life of the pipe. Finally, the comparison among the corrosion models on the basis of the remaining life estimation will be provided to improve the renewal plan.

Keywords: Corrosion, pit depth, sensitivity analysis, exposure period.

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721 Performance Evaluation Standards and Innovation: An Empirical Investigation

Authors: F. Apaydın

Abstract:

In this empirical research, how marketing managers evaluate their firms- performances and decide to make innovation is examined. They use some standards which are past performance of the firm, target performance of the firm, competitor performance, and average performance of the industry to compare and evaluate the firms- performances. It is hypothesized that marketing managers and owners of the firm compare the firms- current performance with these four standards at the same time to decide when to make innovation relating to any aspects of the firm, either management style or products. Relationship between the comparison of the firm-s performance with these standards and innovation are searched in the same regression model. The results of the regression analysis are discussed and some recommendations are made for future studies and applicants.

Keywords: Innovation, performance evaluation standards

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720 Impact of Grade Sensitivity on Learning Motivation and Academic Performance

Authors: Salwa Aftab, Sehrish Riaz

Abstract:

The objective of this study was to check the impact of grade sensitivity on learning motivation and academic performance of students and to remove the degree of difference that exists among students regarding the cause of their learning motivation and also to gain knowledge about this matter since it has not been adequately researched. Data collection was primarily done through the academic sector of Pakistan and was depended upon the responses given by students solely. A sample size of 208 university students was selected. Both paper and online surveys were used to collect data from respondents. The results of the study revealed that grade sensitivity has a positive relationship with the learning motivation of students and their academic performance. These findings were carried out through systematic correlation and regression analysis.

Keywords: Academic performance, correlation, grade sensitivity, learning motivation, regression.

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719 A Statistical Model for the Geotechnical Parameters of Cement-Stabilised Hightown’s Soft Soil: A Case Stufy of Liverpool, UK

Authors: Hassnen M. Jafer, Khalid S. Hashim, W. Atherton, Ali W. Alattabi

Abstract:

This study investigates the effect of two important parameters (length of curing period and percentage of the added binder) on the strength of soil treated with OPC. An intermediate plasticity silty clayey soil with medium organic content was used in this study. This soft soil was treated with different percentages of a commercially available cement type 32.5-N. laboratory experiments were carried out on the soil treated with 0, 1.5, 3, 6, 9, and 12% OPC by the dry weight to determine the effect of OPC on the compaction parameters, consistency limits, and the compressive strength. Unconfined compressive strength (UCS) test was carried out on cement-treated specimens after exposing them to different curing periods (1, 3, 7, 14, 28, and 90 days). The results of UCS test were used to develop a non-linear multi-regression model to find the relationship between the predicted and the measured maximum compressive strength of the treated soil (qu). The results indicated that there was a significant improvement in the index of plasticity (IP) by treating with OPC; IP was decreased from 20.2 to 14.1 by using 12% of OPC; this percentage was enough to increase the UCS of the treated soil up to 1362 kPa after 90 days of curing. With respect to the statistical model of the predicted qu, the results showed that the regression coefficients (R2) was equal to 0.8534 which indicates a good reproducibility for the constructed model.

Keywords: Cement admixtures, soft soil stabilisation, geotechnical parameters, unconfined compressive strength, multi-regression model.

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718 A Renovated Cook's Distance Based On The Buckley-James Estimate In Censored Regression

Authors: Nazrina Aziz, Dong Q. Wang

Abstract:

There have been various methods created based on the regression ideas to resolve the problem of data set containing censored observations, i.e. the Buckley-James method, Miller-s method, Cox method, and Koul-Susarla-Van Ryzin estimators. Even though comparison studies show the Buckley-James method performs better than some other methods, it is still rarely used by researchers mainly because of the limited diagnostics analysis developed for the Buckley-James method thus far. Therefore, a diagnostic tool for the Buckley-James method is proposed in this paper. It is called the renovated Cook-s Distance, (RD* i ) and has been developed based on the Cook-s idea. The renovated Cook-s Distance (RD* i ) has advantages (depending on the analyst demand) over (i) the change in the fitted value for a single case, DFIT* i as it measures the influence of case i on all n fitted values Yˆ∗ (not just the fitted value for case i as DFIT* i) (ii) the change in the estimate of the coefficient when the ith case is deleted, DBETA* i since DBETA* i corresponds to the number of variables p so it is usually easier to look at a diagnostic measure such as RD* i since information from p variables can be considered simultaneously. Finally, an example using Stanford Heart Transplant data is provided to illustrate the proposed diagnostic tool.

Keywords: Buckley-James estimators, censored regression, censored data, diagnostic analysis, product-limit estimator, renovated Cook's Distance.

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717 6D Posture Estimation of Road Vehicles from Color Images

Authors: Yoshimoto Kurihara, Tad Gonsalves

Abstract:

Currently, in the field of object posture estimation, there is research on estimating the position and angle of an object by storing a 3D model of the object to be estimated in advance in a computer and matching it with the model. However, in this research, we have succeeded in creating a module that is much simpler, smaller in scale, and faster in operation. Our 6D pose estimation model consists of two different networks – a classification network and a regression network. From a single RGB image, the trained model estimates the class of the object in the image, the coordinates of the object, and its rotation angle in 3D space. In addition, we compared the estimation accuracy of each camera position, i.e., the angle from which the object was captured. The highest accuracy was recorded when the camera position was 75°, the accuracy of the classification was about 87.3%, and that of regression was about 98.9%.

Keywords: AlexNet, Deep learning, image recognition, 6D posture estimation.

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716 How Do Crisis Affect Economic Policy?

Authors: Eva Kotlánová

Abstract:

After recession that began in 2007 in the United States and subsequently spilled over the Europe we could expect recovery of economic growth. According to the last estimation of economic progress of European countries, this recovery is not strong enough. Among others, it will depend on economic policy, where and in which way, the economic indicators will proceed. Economic theories postulate that the economic subjects prefer stably, continual economic policy without repeated and strong fluctuations. This policy is perceived as support of economic growth. Mostly in crises period, when the government must cope with consequences of recession, the economic policy becomes unpredictable for many subjects and economic policy uncertainty grows, which have negative influence on economic growth. The aim of this paper is to use panel regression to prove or disprove this hypothesis on the example of five largest European economies in the period 2008–2012.

Keywords: Economic Crises in Europe, Economic Policy, Uncertainty, Panel Analysis Regression.

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715 A DMB-TCA Simulation Method for On-Road Traffic Travel Demand Impact Analysis

Authors: Zundong Zhang, Limin Jia, Zhao Tian, Yanfang Yang

Abstract:

Travel Demands influence micro-level traffic behavior, furthermore traffic states. In order to evaluate the effect of travel demands on traffic states, this paper introduces the Demand- Motivation-Behaviors (DMB) micro traffic behavior analysis model which denotes that vehicles behaviors are determines by motivations that relies on traffic demands from the perspective of behavior science. For vehicles, there are two kinds of travel demands: reaching travel destinations from orientations and meeting expectations of travel speed. To satisfy travel demands, the micro traffic behaviors are delivered such as car following behavior, optional and mandatory lane changing behaviors. Especially, mandatory lane changing behaviors depending on travel demands take strong impact on traffic states. In this paper, we define the DMB-based cellular automate traffic simulation model to evaluate the effect of travel demands on traffic states under the different δ values that reflect the ratio of mandatory lane-change vehicles.

Keywords: Demand-Motivation-Behavior, Mandatory Lane Changing, Traffic Cellular Automata.

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714 Modelling Dengue Fever (DF) and Dengue Haemorrhagic Fever (DHF) Outbreak Using Poisson and Negative Binomial Model

Authors: W. Y. Wan Fairos, W. H. Wan Azaki, L. Mohamad Alias, Y. Bee Wah

Abstract:

Dengue fever has become a major concern for health authorities all over the world particularly in the tropical countries. These countries, in particular are experiencing the most worrying outbreak of dengue fever (DF) and dengue haemorrhagic fever (DHF). The DF and DHF epidemics, thus, have become the main causes of hospital admissions and deaths in Malaysia. This paper, therefore, attempts to examine the environmental factors that may influence the recent dengue outbreak. The aim of this study is twofold, firstly is to establish a statistical model to describe the relationship between the number of dengue cases and a range of explanatory variables and secondly, to identify the lag operator for explanatory variables which affect the dengue incidence the most. The explanatory variables involved include the level of cloud cover, percentage of relative humidity, amount of rainfall, maximum temperature, minimum temperature and wind speed. The Poisson and Negative Binomial regression analyses were used in this study. The results of the analyses on the 915 observations (daily data taken from July 2006 to Dec 2008), reveal that the climatic factors comprising of daily temperature and wind speed were found to significantly influence the incidence of dengue fever after 2 and 3 weeks of their occurrences. The effect of humidity, on the other hand, appears to be significant only after 2 weeks.

Keywords: Dengue Fever, Dengue Hemorrhagic Fever, Negative Binomial Regression model, Poisson Regression model.

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713 Diagnosis of Ovarian Cancer with Proteomic Patterns in Serum using Independent Component Analysis and Neural Networks

Authors: Simone C. F. Neves, Lúcio F. A. Campos, Ewaldo Santana, Ginalber L. O. Serra, Allan K. Barros

Abstract:

We propose a method for discrimination and classification of ovarian with benign, malignant and normal tissue using independent component analysis and neural networks. The method was tested for a proteomic patters set from A database, and radial basis functions neural networks. The best performance was obtained with probabilistic neural networks, resulting I 99% success rate, with 98% of specificity e 100% of sensitivity.

Keywords: Cancer ovarian, Proteomic patterns in serum, independent component analysis and neural networks.

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712 Improving Classification in Bayesian Networks using Structural Learning

Authors: Hong Choon Ong

Abstract:

Naïve Bayes classifiers are simple probabilistic classifiers. Classification extracts patterns by using data file with a set of labeled training examples and is currently one of the most significant areas in data mining. However, Naïve Bayes assumes the independence among the features. Structural learning among the features thus helps in the classification problem. In this study, the use of structural learning in Bayesian Network is proposed to be applied where there are relationships between the features when using the Naïve Bayes. The improvement in the classification using structural learning is shown if there exist relationship between the features or when they are not independent.

Keywords: Bayesian Network, Classification, Naïve Bayes, Structural Learning.

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711 Choosing between the Regression Correlation, the Rank Correlation, and the Correlation Curve

Authors: Roger L Goodwin

Abstract:

This paper presents a rank correlation curve. The traditional correlation coefficient is valid for both continuous variables and for integer variables using rank statistics. Since the correlation coefficient has already been established in rank statistics by Spearman, such a calculation can be extended to the correlation curve. This paper presents two survey questions. The survey collected non-continuous variables. We will show weak to moderate correlation. Obviously, one question has a negative effect on the other. A review of the qualitative literature can answer which question and why. The rank correlation curve shows which collection of responses has a positive slope and which collection of responses has a negative slope. Such information is unavailable from the flat, ”first-glance” correlation statistics.

Keywords: Bayesian estimation, regression model, rank statistics, correlation, correlation curve.

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710 Probability of Globality

Authors: Eva Eggeling, Dieter W. Fellner, Torsten Ullrich

Abstract:

The objective of global optimization is to find the globally best solution of a model. Nonlinear models are ubiquitous in many applications and their solution often requires a global search approach; i.e. for a function f from a set A ⊂ Rn to the real numbers, an element x0 ∈ A is sought-after, such that ∀ x ∈ A : f(x0) ≤ f(x). Depending on the field of application, the question whether a found solution x0 is not only a local minimum but a global one is very important. This article presents a probabilistic approach to determine the probability of a solution being a global minimum. The approach is independent of the used global search method and only requires a limited, convex parameter domain A as well as a Lipschitz continuous function f whose Lipschitz constant is not needed to be known.

Keywords: global optimization, probability theory, probability of globality

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709 Automatic Sleep Stage Scoring with Wavelet Packets Based on Single EEG Recording

Authors: Luay A. Fraiwan, Natheer Y. Khaswaneh, Khaldon Y. Lweesy

Abstract:

Sleep stage scoring is the process of classifying the stage of the sleep in which the subject is in. Sleep is classified into two states based on the constellation of physiological parameters. The two states are the non-rapid eye movement (NREM) and the rapid eye movement (REM). The NREM sleep is also classified into four stages (1-4). These states and the state wakefulness are distinguished from each other based on the brain activity. In this work, a classification method for automated sleep stage scoring based on a single EEG recording using wavelet packet decomposition was implemented. Thirty two ploysomnographic recording from the MIT-BIH database were used for training and validation of the proposed method. A single EEG recording was extracted and smoothed using Savitzky-Golay filter. Wavelet packets decomposition up to the fourth level based on 20th order Daubechies filter was used to extract features from the EEG signal. A features vector of 54 features was formed. It was reduced to a size of 25 using the gain ratio method and fed into a classifier of regression trees. The regression trees were trained using 67% of the records available. The records for training were selected based on cross validation of the records. The remaining of the records was used for testing the classifier. The overall correct rate of the proposed method was found to be around 75%, which is acceptable compared to the techniques in the literature.

Keywords: Features selection, regression trees, sleep stagescoring, wavelet packets.

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708 A Brief Study about Nonparametric Adherence Tests

Authors: Vinicius R. Domingues, Luan C. S. M. Ozelim

Abstract:

The statistical study has become indispensable for various fields of knowledge. Not any different, in Geotechnics the study of probabilistic and statistical methods has gained power considering its use in characterizing the uncertainties inherent in soil properties. One of the situations where engineers are constantly faced is the definition of a probability distribution that represents significantly the sampled data. To be able to discard bad distributions, goodness-of-fit tests are necessary. In this paper, three non-parametric goodness-of-fit tests are applied to a data set computationally generated to test the goodness-of-fit of them to a series of known distributions. It is shown that the use of normal distribution does not always provide satisfactory results regarding physical and behavioral representation of the modeled parameters.

Keywords: Kolmogorov-Smirnov, Anderson-Darling, Cramer-Von-Mises, Nonparametric adherence tests.

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707 A Study of the Trade-off Energy Consumption-Performance-Schedulability for DVFS Multicore Systems

Authors: Jalil Boudjadar

Abstract:

Dynamic Voltage and Frequency Scaling (DVFS) multicore platforms are promising execution platforms that enable high computational performance, less energy consumption and flexibility in scheduling the system processes. However, the resulting interleaving and memory interference together with per-core frequency tuning make real-time guarantees hard to be delivered. Besides, energy consumption represents a strong constraint for the deployment of such systems on energy-limited settings. Identifying the system configurations that would achieve a high performance and consume less energy while guaranteeing the system schedulability is a complex task in the design of modern embedded systems. This work studies the trade-off between energy consumption, cores utilization and memory bottleneck and their impact on the schedulability of DVFS multicore time-critical systems with a hierarchy of shared memories. We build a model-based framework using Parametrized Timed Automata of UPPAAL to analyze the mutual impact of performance, energy consumption and schedulability of DVFS multicore systems, and demonstrate the trade-off on an actual case study.

Keywords: Time-critical systems, multicore systems, schedulability analysis, performance, memory interference, energy consumption.

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706 Text Retrieval Relevance Feedback Techniques for Bag of Words Model in CBIR

Authors: Nhu Van NGUYEN, Jean-Marc OGIER, Salvatore TABBONE, Alain BOUCHER

Abstract:

The state-of-the-art Bag of Words model in Content- Based Image Retrieval has been used for years but the relevance feedback strategies for this model are not fully investigated. Inspired from text retrieval, the Bag of Words model has the ability to use the wealth of knowledge and practices available in text retrieval. We study and experiment the relevance feedback model in text retrieval for adapting it to image retrieval. The experiments show that the techniques from text retrieval give good results for image retrieval and that further improvements is possible.

Keywords: Relevance feedback, bag of words model, probabilistic model, vector space model, image retrieval

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705 Comparative Study - Three Artificial Intelligence Techniques for Rain Domain in Precipitation Forecast

Authors: Nabilah Filzah Mohd Radzuan, Andi Putra, Zalinda Othman, Azuraliza Abu Bakar, Abdul Razak Hamdan

Abstract:

Precipitation forecast is important in avoid incident of natural disaster which can cause loss in involved area. This review paper involves three techniques from artificial intelligence namely logistic regression, decisions tree, and random forest which used in making precipitation forecast. These combination techniques through VAR model in finding advantages and strength for every technique in forecast process. Data contains variables from rain domain. Adaptation of artificial intelligence techniques involved on rain domain enables the process to be easier and systematic for precipitation forecast.

Keywords: Logistic regression, decisions tree, random forest, VAR model.

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704 Determinants of the U.S. Current Account

Authors: Shuh Liang

Abstract:

This article provides empirical evidence on the effect of domestic and international factors on the U.S. current account deficit. Linear dynamic regression and vector autoregression models are employed to estimate the relationships during the period from 1986 to 2011. The findings of this study suggest that the current and lagged private saving rate and foreign current account for East Asian economies have played a vital role in affecting the U.S. current account. Additionally, using Granger causality tests and variance decompositions, the change of the productivity growth and foreign domestic demand are determined to influence significantly the change of the U.S. current account. To summarize, the empirical relationship between the U.S. current account deficit and its determinants is sensitive to alternative regression models and specifications.

Keywords: Current account deficit, productivity growth, foreign demand, vector autoregression.

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703 Estimating Regression Effects in Com Poisson Generalized Linear Model

Authors: Vandna Jowaheer, Naushad A. Mamode Khan

Abstract:

Com Poisson distribution is capable of modeling the count responses irrespective of their mean variance relation and the parameters of this distribution when fitted to a simple cross sectional data can be efficiently estimated using maximum likelihood (ML) method. In the regression setup, however, ML estimation of the parameters of the Com Poisson based generalized linear model is computationally intensive. In this paper, we propose to use quasilikelihood (QL) approach to estimate the effect of the covariates on the Com Poisson counts and investigate the performance of this method with respect to the ML method. QL estimates are consistent and almost as efficient as ML estimates. The simulation studies show that the efficiency loss in the estimation of all the parameters using QL approach as compared to ML approach is quite negligible, whereas QL approach is lesser involving than ML approach.

Keywords: Com Poisson, Cross-sectional, Maximum Likelihood, Quasi likelihood

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702 General Regression Neural Network and Back Propagation Neural Network Modeling for Predicting Radial Overcut in EDM: A Comparative Study

Authors: Raja Das, M. K. Pradhan

Abstract:

This paper presents a comparative study between two neural network models namely General Regression Neural Network (GRNN) and Back Propagation Neural Network (BPNN) are used to estimate radial overcut produced during Electrical Discharge Machining (EDM). Four input parameters have been employed: discharge current (Ip), pulse on time (Ton), Duty fraction (Tau) and discharge voltage (V). Recently, artificial intelligence techniques, as it is emerged as an effective tool that could be used to replace time consuming procedures in various scientific or engineering applications, explicitly in prediction and estimation of the complex and nonlinear process. The both networks are trained, and the prediction results are tested with the unseen validation set of the experiment and analysed. It is found that the performance of both the networks are found to be in good agreement with average percentage error less than 11% and the correlation coefficient obtained for the validation data set for GRNN and BPNN is more than 91%. However, it is much faster to train GRNN network than a BPNN and GRNN is often more accurate than BPNN. GRNN requires more memory space to store the model, GRNN features fast learning that does not require an iterative procedure, and highly parallel structure. GRNN networks are slower than multilayer perceptron networks at classifying new cases.

Keywords: Electrical-discharge machining, General Regression Neural Network, Back-propagation Neural Network, Radial Overcut.

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701 A Multiple Linear Regression Model to Predict the Price of Cement in Nigeria

Authors: Kenneth M. Oba

Abstract:

This study investigated factors affecting the price of cement in Nigeria, and developed a mathematical model that can predict future cement prices. Cement is key in the Nigerian construction industry. The changes in price caused by certain factors could affect economic and infrastructural development; hence there is need for proper proactive planning. Secondary data were collected from published information on cement between 2014 and 2019. In addition, questionnaires were sent to some domestic cement retailers in Port Harcourt in Nigeria, to obtain the actual prices of cement between the same periods. The study revealed that the most critical factors affecting the price of cement in Nigeria are inflation rate, population growth rate, and Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth rate. With the use of data from United Nations, International Monetary Fund, and Central Bank of Nigeria databases, amongst others, a Multiple Linear Regression model was formulated. The model was used to predict the price of cement for 2020-2025. The model was then tested with 95% confidence level, using a two-tailed t-test and an F-test, resulting in an R2 of 0.8428 and R2 (adj.) of 0.6069. The results of the tests and the correlation factors confirm the model to be fit and adequate. This study will equip researchers and stakeholders in the construction industry with information for planning, monitoring, and management of present and future construction projects that involve the use of cement.

Keywords: Cement price, multiple linear regression model, Nigerian Construction Industry, price prediction.

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700 Designing Social Care Policies in the Long Term: A Study Using Regression, Clustering and Backpropagation Neural Nets

Authors: Sotirios Raptis

Abstract:

Linking social needs to social classes using different criteria may lead to social services misuse. The paper discusses using ML and Neural Networks (NNs) in linking public services in Scotland in the long term and advocates, this can result in a reduction of the services cost connecting resources needed in groups for similar services. The paper combines typical regression models with clustering and cross-correlation as complementary constituents to predict the demand. Insurance companies and public policymakers can pack linked services such as those offered to the elderly or to low-income people in the longer term. The work is based on public data from 22 services offered by Public Health Services (PHS) Scotland and from the Scottish Government (SG) from 1981 to 2019 that are broken into 110 years series called factors and uses Linear Regression (LR), Autoregression (ARMA) and 3 types of back-propagation (BP) Neural Networks (BPNN) to link them under specific conditions. Relationships found were between smoking related healthcare provision, mental health-related health services, and epidemiological weight in Primary 1(Education) Body Mass Index (BMI) in children. Primary component analysis (PCA) found 11 significant factors while C-Means (CM) clustering gave 5 major factors clusters.

Keywords: Probability, cohorts, data frames, services, prediction.

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699 An Integrated Predictor for Cis-Regulatory Modules

Authors: Darby Tien-Hao Chang, Guan-Yu Shiu, You-Jie Sun

Abstract:

Various cis-regulatory module (CRM) predictors have been proposed in the last decade. Several well-established CRM predictors adopted different categories of prediction strategies, including window clustering, probabilistic modeling and phylogenetic footprinting. Appropriate integration of them has a potential to achieve high quality CRM prediction. This study analyzed four existing CRM predictors (ClusterBuster, MSCAN, CisModule and MultiModule) to seek a predictor combination that delivers a higher accuracy than individual CRM predictors. 465 CRMs across 140 Drosophila melanogaster genes from the RED fly database were used to evaluate the integrated CRM predictor proposed in this study. The results show that four predictor combinations achieved superior performance than the best individual CRM predictor.

Keywords: Cis-regulatory module, transcription factor binding site.

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698 Factors for Entry Timing Choices Using Principal Axis Factorial Analysis and Logistic Regression Model

Authors: Mat Isa, C. M., Mohd Saman, H., Mohd Nasir, S. R., Jaapar, A.

Abstract:

International market expansion involves a strategic process of market entry decision through which a firm expands its operation from domestic to the international domain. Hence, entry timing choices require the needs to balance the early entry risks and the problems in losing opportunities as a result of late entry into a new market. Questionnaire surveys administered to 115 Malaysian construction firms operating in 51 countries worldwide have resulted in 39.1 percent response rate. Factor analysis was used to determine the most significant factors affecting entry timing choices of the firms to penetrate the international market. A logistic regression analysis used to examine the firms’ entry timing choices, indicates that the model has correctly classified 89.5 per cent of cases as late movers. The findings reveal that the most significant factor influencing the construction firms’ choices as late movers was the firm factor related to the firm’s international experience, resources, competencies and financing capacity. The study also offers valuable information to construction firms with intention to internationalize their businesses.

Keywords: Factors, early movers, entry timing choices, late movers, Logistic Regression Model, Principal Axis Factorial Analysis, Malaysian construction firms.

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697 Model-Driven and Data-Driven Approaches for Crop Yield Prediction: Analysis and Comparison

Authors: Xiangtuo Chen, Paul-Henry Cournéde

Abstract:

Crop yield prediction is a paramount issue in agriculture. The main idea of this paper is to find out efficient way to predict the yield of corn based meteorological records. The prediction models used in this paper can be classified into model-driven approaches and data-driven approaches, according to the different modeling methodologies. The model-driven approaches are based on crop mechanistic modeling. They describe crop growth in interaction with their environment as dynamical systems. But the calibration process of the dynamic system comes up with much difficulty, because it turns out to be a multidimensional non-convex optimization problem. An original contribution of this paper is to propose a statistical methodology, Multi-Scenarios Parameters Estimation (MSPE), for the parametrization of potentially complex mechanistic models from a new type of datasets (climatic data, final yield in many situations). It is tested with CORNFLO, a crop model for maize growth. On the other hand, the data-driven approach for yield prediction is free of the complex biophysical process. But it has some strict requirements about the dataset. A second contribution of the paper is the comparison of these model-driven methods with classical data-driven methods. For this purpose, we consider two classes of regression methods, methods derived from linear regression (Ridge and Lasso Regression, Principal Components Regression or Partial Least Squares Regression) and machine learning methods (Random Forest, k-Nearest Neighbor, Artificial Neural Network and SVM regression). The dataset consists of 720 records of corn yield at county scale provided by the United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) and the associated climatic data. A 5-folds cross-validation process and two accuracy metrics: root mean square error of prediction(RMSEP), mean absolute error of prediction(MAEP) were used to evaluate the crop prediction capacity. The results show that among the data-driven approaches, Random Forest is the most robust and generally achieves the best prediction error (MAEP 4.27%). It also outperforms our model-driven approach (MAEP 6.11%). However, the method to calibrate the mechanistic model from dataset easy to access offers several side-perspectives. The mechanistic model can potentially help to underline the stresses suffered by the crop or to identify the biological parameters of interest for breeding purposes. For this reason, an interesting perspective is to combine these two types of approaches.

Keywords: Crop yield prediction, crop model, sensitivity analysis, paramater estimation, particle swarm optimization, random forest.

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696 ELD79-LGD2006 Transformation Techniques Implementation and Accuracy Comparison in Tripoli Area, Libya

Authors: Jamal A. Gledan, Othman A. Azzeidani

Abstract:

During the last decade, Libya established a new Geodetic Datum called Libyan Geodetic Datum 2006 (LGD 2006) by using GPS, whereas the ground traversing method was used to establish the last Libyan datum which was called the Europe Libyan Datum 79 (ELD79). The current research paper introduces ELD79 to LGD2006 coordinate transformation technique, the accurate comparison of transformation between multiple regression equations and the three – parameters model (Bursa-Wolf). The results had been obtained show that the overall accuracy of stepwise multi regression equations is better than that can be determined by using Bursa-Wolf transformation model.

Keywords: Geodetic datum, horizontal control points, traditional similarity transformation model, unconventional transformation techniques.

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695 The Influence of Interest, Beliefs, and Identity with Mathematics on Achievement

Authors: Asma Alzahrani, Elizabeth Stojanovski

Abstract:

This study investigated factors that influence mathematics achievement based on a sample of ninth-grade students (N  =  21,444) from the High School Longitudinal Study of 2009 (HSLS09). Key aspects studied included efficacy in mathematics, interest and enjoyment of mathematics, identity with mathematics and future utility beliefs and how these influence mathematics achievement. The predictability of mathematics achievement based on these factors was assessed using correlation coefficients and multiple linear regression. Spearman rank correlations and multiple regression analyses indicated positive and statistically significant relationships between the explanatory variables: mathematics efficacy, identity with mathematics, interest in and future utility beliefs with the response variable, achievement in mathematics.

Keywords: Mathematics achievement, math efficacy, mathematics interest, identity.

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694 Free Fatty Acid Assessment of Crude Palm Oil Using a Non-Destructive Approach

Authors: Siti Nurhidayah Naqiah Abdull Rani, Herlina Abdul Rahim, Rashidah Ghazali, Noramli Abdul Razak

Abstract:

Near infrared (NIR) spectroscopy has always been of great interest in the food and agriculture industries. The development of prediction models has facilitated the estimation process in recent years. In this study, 110 crude palm oil (CPO) samples were used to build a free fatty acid (FFA) prediction model. 60% of the collected data were used for training purposes and the remaining 40% used for testing. The visible peaks on the NIR spectrum were at 1725 nm and 1760 nm, indicating the existence of the first overtone of C-H bands. Principal component regression (PCR) was applied to the data in order to build this mathematical prediction model. The optimal number of principal components was 10. The results showed R2=0.7147 for the training set and R2=0.6404 for the testing set.

Keywords: Palm oil, fatty acid, NIRS, regression.

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