Search results for: emerging markets
Commenced in January 2007
Frequency: Monthly
Edition: International
Paper Count: 584

Search results for: emerging markets

584 The Many Faces of your Employees: Insights into the Emerging Markets Workforce

Authors: Urvi Shriram

Abstract:

The higher compounded growth rates coupled with favourable demographics in emerging markets portend abundant opportunities for multinational organizations. With many organizations competing for talent in these growing markets, their ability to succeed will depend on their understanding of local workforce needs and aspirations. Using data from the Towers Watson 2010 Global Workforce Study, this paper highlights differences in employee engagement, turnover risks, and attraction and retention drivers between the two markets. Apart from looking at the traditional drivers of employee engagement, the study also explores the value placed by employees on elements like a strong senior leadership, managerial capabilities and career advancement opportunities. Results reveal that emerging markets employees seem to be more engaged and value the non-traditional elements more highly than the developed markets employees.

Keywords: Attraction and retention drivers, emerging markets, employee engagement, turnover risk

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583 Does the Adoption of IFRS Influence Earnings Management towards Small Positive Profits? Evidence from Emerging Markets

Authors: Sawcen Chebaane, Hakim Ben Othman

Abstract:

This paper investigates the effect of International Financial Reporting Standards (IFRS) adoption on the frequency of earnings managements towards small positive profits. We focus on two emerging markets IFRS adopters: South Africa and Turkey. We tested our logistic regression using appropriate panelestimation techniques over a sample of 330 South African and 210 Turkish firm-year observations over the period 2002-2008. Our results document that mandatory adoption of IFRS is not associated with a reduction in earnings management towards small positive profits in emerging markets. These results contradict most of the previous findings of the studies conducted in developed countries. Based on the legal system factor, we compare the intensity of earnings management between a code law country (Turkey) and a common law country (South Africa) over the pre and post-adoption periods. Our findings show that the frequency of such earnings management practice increases significantly for the code law country.

Keywords: Civil law, common law, emerging markets, Mandatory IFRS adoption, small positive profits.

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582 Technical Trading Rules in Emerging Stock Markets

Authors: Stefaan Pauwels, Koen Inghelbrecht, Dries Heyman, Pieter Marius

Abstract:

Literature reveals that many investors rely on technical trading rules when making investment decisions. If stock markets are efficient, one cannot achieve superior results by using these trading rules. However, if market inefficiencies are present, profitable opportunities may arise. The aim of this study is to investigate the effectiveness of technical trading rules in 34 emerging stock markets. The performance of the rules is evaluated by utilizing White-s Reality Check and the Superior Predictive Ability test of Hansen, along with an adjustment for transaction costs. These tests are able to evaluate whether the best model performs better than a buy-and-hold benchmark. Further, they provide an answer to data snooping problems, which is essential to obtain unbiased outcomes. Based on our results we conclude that technical trading rules are not able to outperform a naïve buy-and-hold benchmark on a consistent basis. However, we do find significant trading rule profits in 4 of the 34 investigated markets. We also present evidence that technical analysis is more profitable in crisis situations. Nevertheless, this result is relatively weak.

Keywords: technical trading rules, Reality Check, Superior Predictive Ability, emerging stock markets, data snooping

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581 Dynamic Interrelationship among the Stock Markets of India, Pakistan and United States

Authors: A. Iqbal, N. Khalid, S. Rafiq

Abstract:

The interrelationship between international stock markets has been a key study area among the financial market researchers for international portfolio management and risk measurement. The characteristics of security returns and their dynamics play a vital role in the financial market theory. This study is an attempt to find out the dynamic linkages among the equity market of USA and emerging markets of Pakistan and India using daily data covering the period of January 2003–December 2009. The study utilizes Johansen (Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, 12, 1988) and Johansen and Juselius (Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, 52, 1990) cointegration procedure for long run relationship and Granger-causality tests based on Toda and Yamamoto (Journal of Econometrics, 66, 1995) methodology. No cointegration was found among stock markets of USA, Pakistan and India, while Granger-causality test showed the evidence of unidirectional causality running from New York stock exchange to Bombay and Karachi stock exchanges.

Keywords: Causality, Cointegration, India, Pakistan, Stock Markets, US.

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580 Risk Management Analysis: An Empirical Study Using Bivariate GARCH

Authors: Chin Wen Cheong

Abstract:

This study employs a bivariate asymmetric GARCH model to reveal the hidden dynamics price changes and volatility among the emerging markets of Thailand and Malaysian after the Asian financial crisis from January 2001 to December 2008. Our results indicated that the equity markets are sharing the common information (shock) that transmitted among each others. These empirical findings are used to demonstrate the importance of shock and volatility dynamic transmissions in the cross-market hedging and market risk.

Keywords: multivariate ARCH, structural change, value at risk.

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579 European and International Bond Markets Integration

Authors: Dimitris Georgoutsos, Petros M. Migiakis

Abstract:

The concurrent era is characterised by strengthened interactions among financial markets and increased capital mobility globally. In this frames we examine the effects the international financial integration process has on the European bond markets. We perform a comparative study of the interactions of the European and international bond markets and exploit Cointegration analysis results on the elimination of stochastic trends and the decomposition of the underlying long run equilibria and short run causal relations. Our investigation provides evidence on the relation between the European integration process and that of globalisation, viewed through the bond markets- sector. Additionally the structural formulation applied, offers significant implications of the findings. All in all our analysis offers a number of answers on crucial queries towards the European bond markets integration process.

Keywords: financial integration, bond markets, cointegration

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578 Statistical Study of Drink Markets: Case Study

Authors: Seyed Habib A. Rahmati, Arash Haji Karimi, Reza Saffari, Zeeya Rashvand

Abstract:

An important official knowledge in each country is to have a comprehensive knowledge about markets of each group of products. Drink markets are one the most important markets of each country as a sub-group of nourishment markets. This paper is going to study these markets in Iran. To do so, first, two drink products are selected as pilot, including milk and concentrate. Then, for each product, two groups of information are estimated for the last five years, including 1) total consumption (demand) and 2) total production. Finally, the two groups of productions are compared statistically by means of two statistical tests called t test and Mann- Whitney test. The implemented Different related tables and figures are also illustrated to show the method more explicitly.

Keywords: Market evaluation, Drink, Estimation, Mann- Whitney test

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577 Big Five Traits and Loneliness among Turkish Emerging Adults

Authors: Hasan Atak

Abstract:

Emerging adulthood, between the ages of 18 and 25, as a distinct developmental stage extending from adolescence to young adulthood. The proportions composing the five-factor model are neuroticism, extraversion, openness to experience, agreeableness, and conscientiousness. In the literature, there is any study which includes the relationship between emerging adults loneliness and personality traits. Therefore, the relationship between emerging adults loneliness and personality traits have to be investigated. This study examines the association between the Big Five personality traits, and loneliness among Turkish emerging adults. A total of 220 emerging adults completed the NEO Five Factor Inventory (NEO-FFI), and the The UCLA Loneliness Scale (UCLALS). Correlation analysis showed that three Big Five personality dimensions which are Neuroticism (positively), and Extraversion and Aggreableness (negatively) are moderately correlated with emerging adults loneliness. Regression analysis shows that Extraversion, Aggreableness and Neuroticism are the most important predictors of emerging adults loneliness. Results can be discussed in the context of emerging adulthood theory.

Keywords: Personality, Big Five Traits, Loneliness, Turkish Emerging Adults

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576 The Characteristics of Thai Movies and Factors Contributing to Becoming Widely Known in International Markets

Authors: Tanyatorn Panyasopon

Abstract:

Many Thai movies have been very popular domestically and internationally. Some movies were box office hits and receiving awards. However, there has not yet been research about how Thai movies can sell in international markets The objectives of the research were 1) To analyze the characteristics of Thai movies that can sell to world audiences; 2) To investigate the factors making Thai movies into foreign markets. Thai film professionals were interviewed. Their ideas were analyzed to find out what factors contributing to Thai movies widely seen in worldwide markets. Nine foreign audiences were also interviewed to reveal what characteristics of Thai movies would be well accepted by the markets. The results showed that major characteristics of Thai movies proving successful worldwide were cultural and exotic Thai movies, outstanding genres, well-known actors, music and songs. Factors contributing to global market were marketing, qualities of Thai movies, and financial support from the government.

Keywords: Characteristics, factors, international markets, Thai movies.

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575 Dynamic Interaction Network to Model the Interactive Patterns of International Stock Markets

Authors: Laura Lukmanto, Harya Widiputra, Lukas

Abstract:

Studies in economics domain tried to reveal the correlation between stock markets. Since the globalization era, interdependence between stock markets becomes more obvious. The Dynamic Interaction Network (DIN) algorithm, which was inspired by a Gene Regulatory Network (GRN) extraction method in the bioinformatics field, is applied to reveal important and complex dynamic relationship between stock markets. We use the data of the stock market indices from eight countries around the world in this study. Our results conclude that DIN is able to reveal and model patterns of dynamic interaction from the observed variables (i.e. stock market indices). Furthermore, it is also found that the extracted network models can be utilized to predict movement of the stock market indices with a considerably good accuracy.

Keywords: complex dynamic relationship, dynamic interaction network, interactive stock markets, stock market interdependence.

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574 Software Vulnerability Markets: Discoverers and Buyers

Authors: Abdullah M. Algarni, Yashwant K. Malaiya

Abstract:

Some of the key aspects of vulnerability—discovery, dissemination, and disclosure—have received some attention recently. However, the role of interaction among the vulnerability discoverers and vulnerability acquirers has not yet been adequately addressed. Our study suggests that a major percentage of discoverers, a majority in some cases, are unaffiliated with the software developers and thus are free to disseminate the vulnerabilities they discover in any way they like. As a result, multiple vulnerability markets have emerged. In some of these markets, the exchange is regulated, but in others, there is little or no regulation. In recent vulnerability discovery literature, the vulnerability discoverers have remained anonymous individuals. Although there has been an attempt to model the level of their efforts, information regarding their identities, modes of operation, and what they are doing with the discovered vulnerabilities has not been explored.

Reports of buying and selling of the vulnerabilities are now appearing in the press; however, the existence of such markets requires validation, and the natures of the markets need to be analyzed. To address this need, we have attempted to collect detailed information. We have identified the most prolific vulnerability discoverers throughout the past decade and examined their motivation and methods. A large percentage of these discoverers are located in Eastern and Western Europe and in the Far East. We have contacted several of them in order to collect firsthand information regarding their techniques, motivations, and involvement in the vulnerability markets. We examine why many of the discoverers appear to retire after a highly successful vulnerability-finding career. The paper identifies the actual vulnerability markets, rather than the hypothetical ideal markets that are often examined. The emergence of worldwide government agencies as vulnerability buyers has significant implications. We discuss potential factors that can impact the risk to society and the need for detailed exploration.

Keywords: Risk management, software security, vulnerability discoverers, vulnerability markets.

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573 A New Method for Complex Goods Selection in Electronic Markets

Authors: Mohammad Ali Tabarzad, Caro Lucas, Nassim Jafarzadeh Eslami

Abstract:

After the development of the Internet a suitable discipline for trading goods electronically has been emerged. However, this type of markets is not still mature enough in order to become independent and get closer to seller/buyer-s needs. Furthermore, the buyable and sellable goods in these markets still don-t have essential standards for being well-defined. In this paper, we will present a model for development of a market which can contain goods with variable definitions and we will also investigate its characteristics. Besides, by noticing the fact that people have different discriminations, it-s figured out that the significance of each attribute of a specific product may vary from different people-s view points. Consequently we-ll present a model for weighting and accordingly different people-s view points could be satisfied. These two aspects will be discussed completely throughout this paper.

Keywords: Electronic markets, selection of multi attributegoods, data infusion.

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572 Correlation of the Rate of Imperfect Competition and Profit in Banking Markets

Authors: Jan Cernohorsky

Abstract:

This article aims to assess the evolution of imperfect competition in selected banking markets, in particular in the banking markets of Slovakia, Poland, Hungary, Slovenia and Croatia. Another objective is to assess the evolution of the relationship of imperfect competition and profit development in the banking markets. The article first provides an overview of literature on the topic. It then measures the degree of imperfect competition in individual markets using the Herfindahl-Hirschman Index. The commonly used indicator of total assets was chosen as an indicator. Based on this measurement, the individual banking sectors are categorized into theoretical definitions of the various types of imperfect competition - namely all surveyed banking sectors falling within the theoretical definition of monopolistic competition. Subsequently, using correlation analysis, i.e., the Pearson correlation coefficient, or the Spearman correlation coefficient, the connection between the evolution of imperfect competition and the development of the gross profit on selected banking markets was surveyed. It was found that with the exception of the banking market in Slovenia, where there is a positive correlation; there is no correlation between the evolution of imperfect competition and profit development in the selected markets. This means a recommendation for the regulators that it is not appropriate to rationalize a higher degree of regulation in granting banking licenses on the size of the profits attained in the banking market, as the relationship between the degree of concentration in the banking market and the amount of profit according to our measurements does not exist.

Keywords: Banking system, imperfect competition, profitability.

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571 A Fuzzy Mixed Integer Multi-Scenario Portfolio Optimization Model

Authors: M. S. Osman, A. A. Tharwat, I. A. El-Khodary, A. G. Chalabi

Abstract:

In this paper, we propose a multiple objective optimization model with respect to portfolio selection problem for investors looking forward to diversify their equity investments in a number of equity markets. Based on Markowitz-s M-V model we developed a Fuzzy Mixed Integer Multi-Objective Nonlinear Programming Problem (FMIMONLP) to maximize the investors- future gains on equity markets, reach the optimal proportion of the budget to be invested in different equities. A numerical example with a comprehensive analysis on artificial data from several equity markets is presented in order to illustrate the proposed model and its solution method. The model performed well compared with the deterministic version of the model.

Keywords: Equity Markets, Future Scenarios, PortfolioSelection, Multiple Criteria Fuzzy Optimization

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570 Examining Effects of Electronic Market Functions on Decrease in Product Unit Cost and Response Time to Customer

Authors: Maziyar Nouraee

Abstract:

Electronic markets in recent decades contribute remarkably in business transactions. Many organizations consider traditional ways of trade non-economical and therefore they do trade only through electronic markets. There are different categorizations of electronic markets functions. In one classification, functions of electronic markets are categorized into classes as information, transactions, and value added. In the present paper, effects of the three classes on the two major elements of the supply chain management are measured. The two elements are decrease in the product unit cost and reduction in response time to the customer. The results of the current research show that among nine minor elements related to the three classes of electronic markets functions, six factors and three factors influence on reduction of the product unit cost and reduction of response time to the customer, respectively.

Keywords: Electronic Commerce, Electronic Market, B2B Trade, Supply Chain Management.

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569 Mobile Assembly of Electric Vehicles: Decentralized, Low-Invest and Flexible

Authors: Achim Kampker, Kai Kreiskoether, Johannes Wagner, Sarah Fluchs

Abstract:

The growing speed of innovation in related industries requires the automotive industry to adapt and increase release frequencies of new vehicle derivatives which implies a significant reduction of investments per vehicle and ramp-up times. Emerging markets in various parts of the world augment the currently dominating established main automotive markets. Local content requirements such as import tariffs on final products impede the accessibility of these micro markets, which is why in the future market exploitation will not be driven by pure sales activities anymore but rather by setting up local assembly units. The aim of this paper is to provide an overview of the concept of decentralized assembly and to discuss and critically assess some currently researched and crucial approaches in production technology. In order to determine the scope in which complementary mobile assembly can be profitable for manufacturers, a general cost model is set up and each cost driver is assessed with respect to varying levels of decentralization. One main result of the paper is that the presented approaches offer huge cost-saving potentials and are thus critical for future production strategies. Nevertheless, they still need to be further exploited in order for decentralized assembly to be profitable for companies. The optimal level of decentralization must, however, be specifically determined in each case and cannot be defined in general.

Keywords: Automotive assembly, e-mobility, production technology, small series assembly.

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568 Operative Public Space for Rural Brazil Strategies for Starting Up Economic, Social and Environmental Development of Rural Communities in Emerging Countries: The Goiabeira Case

Authors: Alessandra Battisti, Silvia Cimini

Abstract:

This article stands in the context of rural communities in Brazil, where, like many others emerging countries, the overwhelming increasing markets and the overcrowded cities are leaving behind informal settlements based on obsolete agricultural economies and techniques. The pilot project for the community of Goiabeira reflects the attempt to imagine a development model that privileges the actual improvement of living conditions, the education and training, the social inclusion and participation of the dwellers of rural communities. Through the inclusion of operative public space, the aim is for them to become self-sustaining, encouraging the use of local resources for appropriate architectural, ecological and energy technologies and devices, that are efficient, affordable and foster community participation, in the respect of the surrounding environment.

Keywords: Economical development, environment conservation, local resources, participation and social inclusion.

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567 Agricultural Commodities Volatility in Some Selected Markets in the Northern and Western States in Nigeria

Authors: T. Danjuma, N. M. Ike-Muonso, H. C. Chinwenyi

Abstract:

The price volatility of agricultural commodities in Nigeria market is very essential and understanding its future evolution is important for informed decision making to policymakers. In this paper, we examined the volatilities of some agricultural commodities such as maize (white), cowpeas (brown) and sorghum (white) in Mubi and Dawanau markets in the Northern part of the country and compared its volatilities with the same agricultural commodities from Lagos and Ibadan markets in the Western part of Nigeria.

Keywords: Agricultural commodity, agricultural market, derivatives, volatility, price.

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566 University-Industry Technology Transfer and Technology Transfer Offices in Emerging Economies

Authors: José Carlos Rodríguez, Mario Gómez

Abstract:

The aim of this paper is to get insight on the nature of university-industry technology transfer (UITT) and technology transfer offices (TTOs) activity at universities in the case of emerging economies. In relation to the process of transferring knowledge/technology in the case of emerging economies, knowledge/technology transfer in these economies are more reactive than in developed economies due to differences in maturity of technologies. It is assumed in this paper that knowledge/technology transfer is a complex phenomenon, and thus the paper contributes to get insight on the nature of UITT and TTOs creation in the case of emerging economies by using a system dynamics model of knowledge/technology transfer in these countries. The paper recognizes the differences between industrialized countries and emerging economies on these phenomena.

Keywords: University-industry technology transfer, technology transfer offices, technology transfer models, emerging economies.

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565 Applications of Stable Distributions in Time Series Analysis, Computer Sciences and Financial Markets

Authors: Mohammad Ali Baradaran Ghahfarokhi, Parvin Baradaran Ghahfarokhi

Abstract:

In this paper, first we introduce the stable distribution, stable process and theirs characteristics. The a -stable distribution family has received great interest in the last decade due to its success in modeling data, which are too impulsive to be accommodated by the Gaussian distribution. In the second part, we propose major applications of alpha stable distribution in telecommunication, computer science such as network delays and signal processing and financial markets. At the end, we focus on using stable distribution to estimate measure of risk in stock markets and show simulated data with statistical softwares.

Keywords: stable distribution, SaS, infinite variance, heavy tail networks, VaR.

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564 Similar Cultural Factors Compensate for Communication Problems in Japan's Software Globalization Business

Authors: Phong Tran

Abstract:

A research effort to find the reality of the business of Japan-s software globalization of enterprise-level business software systems has found that while the number of Japan-made enterpriselevel software systems is comparable with those of the other G7 countries, the business is limited to the East and Southeast Asian markets. This indicates that this business has a problem in the European and USA markets. Based on the knowledge that the research has established, the research concludes that the communication problems arise from the lack of individualists' communication styles and foreign language skills in Japan's software globalization is compensated by similarities in certain Japanese cultural factors and Japan's cultural power in the East and Southeast Asian markets and that this business does not have this compensation factor in the European and American markets due to dissimilarities and no cultural power.

Keywords: Cultural factors, global business, Japan, software globalization.

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563 Underpricing of IPOs during Hot and Cold Market Periods on the South African Stock Exchange (JSE)

Authors: Brownhilder N. Neneh, A. Van Aardt Smit

Abstract:

Underpricing is one anomaly in initial public offerings (IPO) literature that has been widely observed across different stock markets with different trends emerging over different time periods. This study seeks to determine how IPOs on the JSE performed on the first day, first week and first month over the period of 1996-2011. Underpricing trends are documented for both hot and cold market periods in terms of four main sectors (cyclical, defensive, growth stock and interest rate sensitive stocks). Using a sample of 360 listed companies on the JSE, the empirical findings established that IPOs on the JSE are significantly underpriced with an average market adjusted first day return of 62.9%. It is also established that hot market IPOs on the JSE are more underpriced than the cold market IPOs. Also observed is the fact that as the offer price per share increases above the median price for any given period, the level of underpricing decreases substantially. While significant differences exist in the level of underpricing of IPOs in the four different sectors in the hot and cold market periods, interest rates sensitive stocks showed a different trend from the other sectors and thus require further investigation to uncover this pattern.

Keywords: Underpricing, hot and cold markets, South Africa, JSE.

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562 Comparative Analysis of Concentration in Insurance Markets in New EU Member States

Authors: T. Pavic Kramaric, M. Kitic

Abstract:

The purpose of this article is to analyze the market structure as well as the degree of concentration in insurance markets in new EU member states. The analysis was conducted using several most commonly used concentration indicators such as concentration ratio, Herfindahl-Hirschman index and entropy index. These indicators were calculated for the 2000-2010 period on the basis of total gross written premium as the most relevant indicator of market power in insurance markets. The results of the analysis showed that in all observed countries the level of concentration decreased, though with significantly different intensity. Yet, in some countries, the level of concentration remains very high.

Keywords: insurance market, concentration, new EU member states

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561 FACTS Impact on Grid Stability and Power Markets

Authors: Abdulrahman Alsuhaibani, Martin Macken

Abstract:

FACTS devices have great influence on the grid stability and power markets price. Recently, there is intent to integrate a large scale of renewable energy sources to the power system which in turn pushes the power system to operate closer to the security limits. This paper discusses the power system stability and reliability improvement that could be achieved by using FACTS. There is a comparison between FACTS devices to evaluate their performance for different functions. A case study has also been made about its effect on reducing generation cost and minimizing transmission losses which have good impact on efficient and economic operation of electricity markets.

Keywords: FACTS, grid stability, spot price, Optimal Power Flow.

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560 Non-Standard Monetary Policy Measures and Their Consequences

Authors: Aleksandra Nocoń (Szunke)

Abstract:

The study is a review of the literature concerning the consequences of non-standard monetary policy, which are used by central banks during unconventional periods, threatening banking sector instability. In particular, the attention was paid to the effects of non-standard monetary policy tools for financial markets. However, the empirical evidence about their effects and real consequences for financial markets is still not final. The main aim of the study is to survey consequences of standard and non-standard monetary policy instruments, implemented during the global financial crisis in the United States, United Kingdom and euro area, with particular attention to the results for the stabilization of global financial markets. The study consists mainly of the empirical review, indicating the impact of the implementation of these tools for financial markets. The following research methods were used in the study: literature studies, including domestic and foreign literature, cause and effect analysis and statistical analysis.

Keywords: Asset purchase facility, consequences of monetary policy instruments, non-standard monetary policy, Quantitative Easing.

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559 Is the Liberalization Policy Effective on Improving the Bivariate Cointegration of Current Accounts, Foreign Exchange, Stock Prices? Further Evidence from Asian Markets

Authors: Chen-Yin Kuo

Abstract:

This paper fist examines three set of bivariate cointegrations between any two of current accounts, stock markets, and currency exchange markets in ten Asian countries. Furthermore, we examined the effect of country characters on this bivariate cointegration. Our findings suggest that for three sets of cointegration test, each sample country at least exists one cointegration. India consistently exhibited a bi-directional causal relationship between any two of three indicators. Unlike Pan et al. (2007) and Phylaktis and Ravazzolo (2005), we found that such cointegration is influenced by three characteristics: capital control; flexibility in foreign exchange rates; and the ratio of trade to GDP. These characteristics are the result of liberalization in each Asian country. This implies that liberalization policies are effective on improving the cointegration between any two of financial markets and current account for ten Asian countries.

Keywords: Current account, stock price, foreign exchange rate, country characteristics, bivariate cointegration, bi-directional causal relationships.

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558 Towards An Extended International HRM Model for Emerging Multinational Enterprises

Authors: Connie Zheng

Abstract:

This paper critiques several exiting strategic international human resource management (SIHRM) frameworks and discusses their limitations to apply directly to emerging multinational enterprises (EMNEs), especially those generated from China and other BRICS nations. To complement the existing SIHRM frameworks, key variables relevant to emerging economies are identified and the extended model with particular reference to EMNEs is developed with several research propositions. It is believed that the extended model would better capture the recent development of MNEs in transition, and alert emerging international managers to address several human resource management challenges in the global context

Keywords: China, human resource, MNEs, strategy

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557 An Application of Extreme Value Theory as a Risk Measurement Approach in Frontier Markets

Authors: Dany Ng Cheong Vee, Preethee Nunkoo Gonpot, Noor-Ul-Hacq Sookia

Abstract:

In this paper, we consider the application of Extreme Value Theory as a risk measurement tool. The Value at Risk, for a set of indices, from six Stock Exchanges of Frontier markets is calculated using the Peaks over Threshold method and the performance of the model index-wise is evaluated using coverage tests and loss functions. Our results show that “fattailedness” alone of the data is not enough to justify the use of EVT as a VaR approach. The structure of the returns dynamics is also a determining factor. This approach works fine in markets which have had extremes occurring in the past thus making the model capable of coping with extremes coming up (Colombo, Tunisia and Zagreb Stock Exchanges). On the other hand, we find that indices with lower past than present volatility fail to adequately deal with future extremes (Mauritius and Kazakhstan). We also conclude that using EVT alone produces quite static VaR figures not reflecting the actual dynamics of the data.

Keywords: Extreme Value theory, Financial Crisis 2008, Frontier Markets, Value at Risk.

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556 Impact of Regulation on Trading in Financial Derivatives in Europe

Authors: H. Florianová, J. Nešleha

Abstract:

Financial derivatives are considered to be risky investment instruments which could possibly bring another financial crisis. As prevention, European Union and its member states have released new legal acts adjusting this area of law in recent years. There have been several cases in history of capital markets worldwide where it was shown that legislature may affect behavior of subjects on capital markets. In our paper we analyze main events on selected European stock exchanges in order to apply them on three chosen markets - Czech capital market represented by Prague Stock Exchange, German capital market represented by Deutsche Börse and Polish capital market represented by Warsaw Stock Exchange. We follow time series of development of the sum of listed derivatives on these three stock exchanges in order to evaluate popularity of those exchanges. Afterwards we compare newly listed derivatives in relation to the speed of development of these exchanges. We also make a comparison between trends in derivatives and shares development. We explain how a legal regulation may affect situation on capital markets. If the regulation is too strict, potential investors or traders are not willing to undertake it and move to other markets. On the other hand, if the regulation is too vague, trading scandals occur and the market is not reliable from the prospect of potential investors or issuers. We see that making the regulation stricter usually discourages subjects to stay on the market immediately although making the regulation vaguer to interest more subjects is usually much slower process.

Keywords: Capital markets, financial derivatives, investors' behavior, regulation.

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555 Exploration of Sweet Potato Cultivar Markets Availability in North West Province, South Africa

Authors: V. M. Mmbengwa, J. R. M. Mabuso, C. P. Du Plooy, S. Laurrie, H. D. van Schalkwyk

Abstract:

Sweet potato products are necessary for the provision of essential nutrients in every household, regardless of their poverty status. Their consumption appears to be highly influenced by socioeconomic factors, such as malnutrition, food insecurity and unemployment. Therefore, market availability is crucial for these cultivars to resolve some of the socio-economic factors. The aim of the study was to investigate market availability of sweet potato cultivars in the North West Province. In this study, both qualitative and quantitative research methodologies were used. Qualitative methodology was used to explain the quantitative outcomes of the variables. On the other hand, quantitative results were used to test the hypothesis. The study used SPSS software to analyse the data. Crosstabulation and Chi-square statistics were used to obtain the descriptive and inferential analyses, respectively. The study found that the Blesbok cultivar is dominating the markets of the North West Province, with the Monate cultivar dominating in the Bojanala Platinum (75%) and Dr Ruth Segomotsi Mompati (25%) districts. It is also found that a unit increase in the supply of sweet potato cultivars in both local and district municipal markets is accompanied by a reduced demand of 28% and 33% at district and local markets, respectively. All these results were found to be significant at p<0.05. The results further revealed that in four out of nine local municipality markets, the Blesbok cultivar seems to be solely available in those four local municipal markets of North West Province. It can be concluded that Blesbok, relative to other cultivars, is the most commercialised sweet potato variety and that consumers across this Province are highly aware of it. For other cultivars to assume market prominence in this Province, a well-designed marketing campaign for creating awareness may be required. This campaign may be based on nutritional advantages of different cultivars, of which Blesbok is relatively inferior, compared to orange-fleshed sweet potato varieties.

Keywords: Cultivar, malnutrition, markets, sweet potato.

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