Search results for: Credit Default Swap (CDS)
125 Optimal Allocation Between Subprime Structured Mortgage Products and Treasuries
Authors: MP. Mulaudzi, MA. Petersen, J. Mukuddem-Petersen , IM. Schoeman, B. de Waal, JM. Manale
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This conference paper discusses a risk allocation problem for subprime investing banks involving investment in subprime structured mortgage products (SMPs) and Treasuries. In order to solve this problem, we develop a L'evy process-based model of jump diffusion-type for investment choice in subprime SMPs and Treasuries. This model incorporates subprime SMP losses for which credit default insurance in the form of credit default swaps (CDSs) can be purchased. In essence, we solve a mean swap-at-risk (SaR) optimization problem for investment which determines optimal allocation between SMPs and Treasuries subject to credit risk protection via CDSs. In this regard, SaR is indicative of how much protection investors must purchase from swap protection sellers in order to cover possible losses from SMP default. Here, SaR is defined in terms of value-at-risk (VaR). Finally, we provide an analysis of the aforementioned optimization problem and its connections with the subprime mortgage crisis (SMC).
Keywords: Investors; Jump Diffusion Process, Structured Mortgage Products, Treasuries, Credit Risk, Credit Default Swaps, Tranching Risk, Counterparty Risk, Value-at-Risk, Swaps-at-Risk, Subprime Mortgage Crisis.
Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 1731124 Dissociation of CDS from CVA Valuation under Notation Changes
Authors: R. Henry, J-B. Paulin, St. Fauchille, Ph. Delord, K. Benkirane, A. Brunel
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In this paper the CVA computation of interest rate swap is presented based on its rating. Rating and probability default given by Moody’s Investors Service are used to calculate our CVA for a specific swap with different maturities. With this computation the influence of rating variation can be shown on CVA. Application is made to the analysis of Greek CDS variation during the period of Greek crisis between 2008 and 2011. The main point is the determination of correlation between the fluctuation of Greek CDS cumulative value and the variation of swap CVA due to change of rating.
Keywords: CDS, Computation, CVA, Greek Crisis, Interest Rate Swap, Maturity, Rating, Swap.
Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 2503123 Sovereign Credit Risk Measures
Authors: Kristýna Pokorná, Petr Teplý
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This paper focuses on sovereign credit risk meaning a hot topic related to the current Eurozone crisis. In the light of the recent financial crisis, market perception of the creditworthiness of individual sovereigns has changed significantly. Before the outbreak of the financial crisis, market participants did not differentiate between credit risk born by individual states despite different levels of public indebtedness. In the proceeding of the financial crisis, the market participants became aware of the worsening fiscal situation in the European countries and started to discriminate among government issuers. Concerns about the increasing sovereign risk were reflected in surging sovereign risk premium. The main of this paper is to shed light on the characteristics of the sovereign risk with the special attention paid to the mutual relation between credit spread and the CDS premium as the main measures of the sovereign risk premium.Keywords: cointegration, credit default swap, credit risk, credit spread, sovereign risk
Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 1955122 Cash Flow Optimization on Synthetic CDOs
Authors: Timothée Bligny, Clément Codron, Antoine Estruch, Nicolas Girodet, Clément Ginet
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Collateralized Debt Obligations are not as widely used nowadays as they were before 2007 Subprime crisis. Nonetheless there remains an enthralling challenge to optimize cash flows associated with synthetic CDOs. A Gaussian-based model is used here in which default correlation and unconditional probabilities of default are highlighted. Then numerous simulations are performed based on this model for different scenarios in order to evaluate the associated cash flows given a specific number of defaults at different periods of time. Cash flows are not solely calculated on a single bought or sold tranche but rather on a combination of bought and sold tranches. With some assumptions, the simplex algorithm gives a way to find the maximum cash flow according to correlation of defaults and maturities. The used Gaussian model is not realistic in crisis situations. Besides present system does not handle buying or selling a portion of a tranche but only the whole tranche. However the work provides the investor with relevant elements on how to know what and when to buy and sell.
Keywords: Synthetic Collateralized Debt Obligation (CDO), Credit Default Swap (CDS), Cash Flow Optimization, Probability of Default, Default Correlation, Strategies, Simulation, Simplex.
Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 1904121 Credit Spread Changes and Volatility Spillover Effects
Authors: Thomas I. Kounitis
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The purpose of this paper is to investigate the influence of a number of variables on the conditional mean and conditional variance of credit spread changes. The empirical analysis in this paper is conducted within the context of bivariate GARCH-in- Mean models, using the so-called BEKK parameterization. We show that credit spread changes are determined by interest-rate and equityreturn variables, which is in line with theory as provided by the structural models of default. We also identify the credit spread change volatility as an important determinant of credit spread changes, and provide evidence on the transmission of volatility between the variables under study.Keywords: Credit spread changes, GARCH-in-Mean models, structural framework, volatility transmission.
Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 1653120 Simultaneous Term Structure Estimation of Hazard and Loss Given Default with a Statistical Model using Credit Rating and Financial Information
Authors: Tomohiro Ando, Satoshi Yamashita
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The objective of this study is to propose a statistical modeling method which enables simultaneous term structure estimation of the risk-free interest rate, hazard and loss given default, incorporating the characteristics of the bond issuing company such as credit rating and financial information. A reduced form model is used for this purpose. Statistical techniques such as spline estimation and Bayesian information criterion are employed for parameter estimation and model selection. An empirical analysis is conducted using the information on the Japanese bond market data. Results of the empirical analysis confirm the usefulness of the proposed method.Keywords: Empirical Bayes, Hazard term structure, Loss given default.
Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 1667119 Credit Risk Management and Analysis in an Iranian Bank
Authors: Isa Nakhai Kamal Abadi, Esmaeel Saberi, Ehsan Mirjafari
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While financial institutions have faced difficulties over the years for a multitude of reasons, the major cause of serious banking problems continues to be directly related to lax credit standards for borrowers and counterparties, poor portfolio risk management, or a lack of attention to changes in economic or other circumstances that can lead to a deterioration in the credit standing of a bank's counterparties. Credit risk is most simply defined as the potential that a bank borrower or counterparty will fail to meet its obligations in accordance with agreed terms. The goal of credit risk management is to maximize a bank's risk-adjusted rate of return by maintaining credit risk exposure within acceptable parameters. Banks need to manage the credit risk inherent in the entire portfolio as well as the risk in individual credits or transactions. Banks should also consider the relationships between credit risk and other risks. The effective management of credit risk is a critical component of a comprehensive approach to risk management and essential to the long-term success of any banking organization. In this research we also study the relationship between credit risk indices and borrower-s timely payback in Karafarin bank.Keywords: Financial Ratios; Spearman Test; Bank OperationsRisk
Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 1771118 Italian Central Guarantee Fund: An Analysis of the Guaranteed SMEs’ Default Risk
Authors: M. C. Arcuri, L. Gai, F. Ielasi
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Italian Central Guarantee Fund (CGF) has the purpose to facilitate Small and Medium-sized Enterprises (SMEs)’ access to credit. The aim of the paper is to study the evaluation method adopted by the CGF with regard to SMEs requiring its intervention. This is even more important in the light of the recent CGF reform. We analyse an initial sample of more than 500.000 guarantees from 2012 to 2018. We distinguish between a counter-guarantee delivered to a mutual guarantee institution and a guarantee directly delivered to a bank. We investigate the impact of variables related to the operations and the SMEs on Altman Z’’-score and the score consistent with CGF methodology. We verify that the type of intervention affects the scores and the initial condition changes with the new assessment criterions.
Keywords: Banks, default risk, Italian Guarantee Fund, mutual guarantee institutions.
Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 1106117 Assessment of Mortgage Applications Using Fuzzy Logic
Authors: Swathi Sampath, V. Kalaichelvi
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The assessment of the risk posed by a borrower to a lender is one of the common problems that financial institutions have to deal with. Consumers vying for a mortgage are generally compared to each other by the use of a number called the Credit Score, which is generated by applying a mathematical algorithm to information in the applicant’s credit report. The higher the credit score, the lower the risk posed by the candidate, and the better he is to be taken on by the lender. The objective of the present work is to use fuzzy logic and linguistic rules to create a model that generates Credit Scores.
Keywords: Credit scoring, fuzzy logic, mortgage, risk assessment.
Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 2744116 Easy Shopping by Electronic Credit
Authors: M. Kargar, A. Isazadeh, F. Fartash, T. Saderi
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In this paper we suggest a method for setting electronic credits for the customers. In this method banks and market-sites help each other to make doing large shopping through internet so easy. By developing this system, the people who have less money to buy most of the things they want, become able to buy all of them just through a credit. This credit is given by market-sites through a banking control on it. The method suggested can stop being imprisoned because of banking debts.Keywords: E-Business, E-Credit, Market-site, Buy-site, Bank, E-Commerce.
Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 1486115 A Optimal Subclass Detection Method for Credit Scoring
Authors: Luciano Nieddu, Giuseppe Manfredi, Salvatore D'Acunto, Katia La Regina
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In this paper a non-parametric statistical pattern recognition algorithm for the problem of credit scoring will be presented. The proposed algorithm is based on a clustering k- means algorithm and allows for the determination of subclasses of homogenous elements in the data. The algorithm will be tested on two benchmark datasets and its performance compared with other well known pattern recognition algorithm for credit scoring.
Keywords: Constrained clustering, Credit scoring, Statistical pattern recognition, Supervised classification.
Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 2049114 Modeling Default Probabilities of the Chosen Czech Banks in the Time of the Financial Crisis
Authors: Petr Gurný
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One of the most important tasks in the risk management is the correct determination of probability of default (PD) of particular financial subjects. In this paper a possibility of determination of financial institution’s PD according to the creditscoring models is discussed. The paper is divided into the two parts. The first part is devoted to the estimation of the three different models (based on the linear discriminant analysis, logit regression and probit regression) from the sample of almost three hundred US commercial banks. Afterwards these models are compared and verified on the control sample with the view to choose the best one. The second part of the paper is aimed at the application of the chosen model on the portfolio of three key Czech banks to estimate their present financial stability. However, it is not less important to be able to estimate the evolution of PD in the future. For this reason, the second task in this paper is to estimate the probability distribution of the future PD for the Czech banks. So, there are sampled randomly the values of particular indicators and estimated the PDs’ distribution, while it’s assumed that the indicators are distributed according to the multidimensional subordinated Lévy model (Variance Gamma model and Normal Inverse Gaussian model, particularly). Although the obtained results show that all banks are relatively healthy, there is still high chance that “a financial crisis” will occur, at least in terms of probability. This is indicated by estimation of the various quantiles in the estimated distributions. Finally, it should be noted that the applicability of the estimated model (with respect to the used data) is limited to the recessionary phase of the financial market.
Keywords: Credit-scoring Models, Multidimensional Subordinated Lévy Model, Probability of Default.
Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 1919113 The Need for Selective Credit Policy Implementation: Case of Croatia
Authors: Drago Jakovcevic, Mihovil Andelinovic, Igor Husak
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The aim of this paper is to explore the economic circumstances in which the selective credit policy, the least used instrument of four types of instruments on disposal to central banks, should be used. The most significant example includes the use of selective credit policies in response to the emergence of the global financial crisis by the FED. Specifics of the potential use of selective credit policies as the instigator of economic growth in Croatia, a small open economy, are determined by high euroization of financial system, fixed exchange rate and long-term trend growth of external debt that is related to the need to maintain high levels of foreign reserves. In such conditions, the classic forms of selective credit policies are unsuitable for the introduction. Several alternative approaches to implement selective credit policies are examined in this paper. Also, thorough analysis of distribution of selective monetary policy loans among economic sectors in Croatia is conducted in order to minimize the risk of investing funds and maximize the return, in order to influence the GDP growth.
Keywords: Global crisis, Selective credit policy, Small open economy.
Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 1618112 Join and Meet Block Based Default Definite Decision Rule Mining from IDT and an Incremental Algorithm
Authors: Chen Wu, Jingyu Yang
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Using maximal consistent blocks of tolerance relation on the universe in incomplete decision table, the concepts of join block and meet block are introduced and studied. Including tolerance class, other blocks such as tolerant kernel and compatible kernel of an object are also discussed at the same time. Upper and lower approximations based on those blocks are also defined. Default definite decision rules acquired from incomplete decision table are proposed in the paper. An incremental algorithm to update default definite decision rules is suggested for effective mining tasks from incomplete decision table into which data is appended. Through an example, we demonstrate how default definite decision rules based on maximal consistent blocks, join blocks and meet blocks are acquired and how optimization is done in support of discernibility matrix and discernibility function in the incomplete decision table.Keywords: rough set, incomplete decision table, maximalconsistent block, default definite decision rule, join and meet block.
Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 1288111 Enhancement Approaches for Supporting Default Hierarchies Formation for Robot Behaviors
Authors: Saeed Mohammed Baneamoon, Rosalina Abdul Salam
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Robotic system is an important area in artificial intelligence that aims at developing the performance techniques of the robot and making it more efficient and more effective in choosing its correct behavior. In this paper the distributed learning classifier system is used for designing a simulated control system for robot to perform complex behaviors. A set of enhanced approaches that support default hierarchies formation is suggested and compared with each other in order to make the simulated robot more effective in mapping the input to the correct output behavior.
Keywords: Learning Classifier System, Default Hierarchies, Robot Behaviors.
Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 1424110 Measured versus Default Interstate Traffic Data in New Mexico, USA
Authors: M. A. Hasan, M. R. Islam, R. A. Tarefder
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This study investigates how the site specific traffic data differs from the Mechanistic Empirical Pavement Design Software default values. Two Weigh-in-Motion (WIM) stations were installed in Interstate-40 (I-40) and Interstate-25 (I-25) to developed site specific data. A computer program named WIM Data Analysis Software (WIMDAS) was developed using Microsoft C-Sharp (.Net) for quality checking and processing of raw WIM data. A complete year data from November 2013 to October 2014 was analyzed using the developed WIM Data Analysis Program. After that, the vehicle class distribution, directional distribution, lane distribution, monthly adjustment factor, hourly distribution, axle load spectra, average number of axle per vehicle, axle spacing, lateral wander distribution, and wheelbase distribution were calculated. Then a comparative study was done between measured data and AASHTOWare default values. It was found that the measured general traffic inputs for I-40 and I-25 significantly differ from the default values.Keywords: AASHTOWare, Traffic, Weigh-in-Motion, Axle load Distribution.
Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 1699109 Solving Facility Location Problem on Cluster Computing
Authors: Ei Phyo Wai, Nay Min Tun
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Computation of facility location problem for every location in the country is not easy simultaneously. Solving the problem is described by using cluster computing. A technique is to design parallel algorithm by using local search with single swap method in order to solve that problem on clusters. Parallel implementation is done by the use of portable parallel programming, Message Passing Interface (MPI), on Microsoft Windows Compute Cluster. In this paper, it presents the algorithm that used local search with single swap method and implementation of the system of a facility to be opened by using MPI on cluster. If large datasets are considered, the process of calculating a reasonable cost for a facility becomes time consuming. The result shows parallel computation of facility location problem on cluster speedups and scales well as problem size increases.Keywords: cluster, cost, demand, facility location
Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 1486108 The Role and Effectiveness of Audit Committee in Corporate Governance of Credit Institutions
Authors: Tina Vuko, Marija Maretić, Marko Čular
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The aim of this study is to analyze the role and effectiveness of internal mechanism (audit committee) of corporate governance on credit institutions performance in Croatia. Based on research objective, sample of 78 credit institutions listed on Zagreb Stock Exchange, from 2007 to 2012, has been collected and efficiency index of audit committee (EIAC) has been created. Based on the sample and created EIAC, conclusions are as follows: audit committees of credit institutions have medium efficiency, based on EIAC measurement; there is a significant difference in audit committee effectiveness, in observed period; there is no positive relationship between audit committee effectiveness and credit institution performance; there is a significant difference between level of audit committee effectiveness and audit firm type. Future research should contain increased number of elements in EIAC creation and increased sample, for all obligators who need to establish audit committee.
Keywords: Corporate Governance, Audit Committee, Financial Institutions, Efficiency Index of Audit Committee.
Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 2611107 Conceptual Frameworks of Carbon Credit Registry System for Thailand
Authors: Akekaluck Hemtanon, Bunyarit Uyyanonvara
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This research explores on the development of the structure of Carbon Credit Registry System those accords to the need of future events in Thailand. This research also explores the big picture of every connected system by referring to the design of each system, the Data Flow Diagram, and the design in term of the system-s data using DES standard. The purpose of this paper is to show how to design the model of each system. Furthermore, this paper can serve as guideline for designing an appropriate Carbon Credit Registry System.
Keywords: CDM, CDM BE, Annex I County, Non-Annex I country, CERs, Kyoto Protocol.
Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 1629106 Comparison between XGBoost, LightGBM and CatBoost Using a Home Credit Dataset
Authors: Essam Al Daoud
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Gradient boosting methods have been proven to be a very important strategy. Many successful machine learning solutions were developed using the XGBoost and its derivatives. The aim of this study is to investigate and compare the efficiency of three gradient methods. Home credit dataset is used in this work which contains 219 features and 356251 records. However, new features are generated and several techniques are used to rank and select the best features. The implementation indicates that the LightGBM is faster and more accurate than CatBoost and XGBoost using variant number of features and records.
Keywords: Gradient boosting, XGBoost, LightGBM, CatBoost, home credit.
Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 9462105 A Comparison of Different Soft Computing Models for Credit Scoring
Authors: Nnamdi I. Nwulu, Shola G. Oroja
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It has become crucial over the years for nations to improve their credit scoring methods and techniques in light of the increasing volatility of the global economy. Statistical methods or tools have been the favoured means for this; however artificial intelligence or soft computing based techniques are becoming increasingly preferred due to their proficient and precise nature and relative simplicity. This work presents a comparison between Support Vector Machines and Artificial Neural Networks two popular soft computing models when applied to credit scoring. Amidst the different criteria-s that can be used for comparisons; accuracy, computational complexity and processing times are the selected criteria used to evaluate both models. Furthermore the German credit scoring dataset which is a real world dataset is used to train and test both developed models. Experimental results obtained from our study suggest that although both soft computing models could be used with a high degree of accuracy, Artificial Neural Networks deliver better results than Support Vector Machines.Keywords: Artificial Neural Networks, Credit Scoring, SoftComputing Models, Support Vector Machines.
Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 2129104 Two Stage Fuzzy Methodology to Evaluate the Credit Risks of Investment Projects
Authors: O. Badagadze, G. Sirbiladze, I. Khutsishvili
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The work proposes a decision support methodology for the credit risk minimization in selection of investment projects. The methodology provides two stages of projects’ evaluation. Preliminary selection of projects with minor credit risks is made using the Expertons Method. The second stage makes ranking of chosen projects using the Possibilistic Discrimination Analysis Method. The latter is a new modification of a well-known Method of Fuzzy Discrimination Analysis.
Keywords: Expert valuations, expertons, investment project risks, positive and negative discriminations, possibility distribution.
Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 1738103 Impact Assessment of Credit Policy and Medical Credit Facility (MCF) on Nigerian Private Sector Health Market: Evidence from Eight Nigerian States
Authors: Chimaobi V. Okolo, Kenneth A. Okpala, Johnbull S. Ogboi
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A teeming set of doctors that graduated from various universities within and outside Nigeria with the hope of practicing in the country, has their hope shattered because of poor financing, lack of medical equipments and a very weak healthcare systems. Such hydra headed challenges, allows room for quackery which increasingly contributes to the cause of mortality in Nigeria. With a view of reversing the challenges of healthcare delivery and financing in Nigeria, African Health Market for Equity (AHME), a project funded by the Bill and Melinda Gates foundation [With contribution from Department For International Development (DFID)] and currently implemented in three African Countries (Nigeria, Kenya and Ghana) over a Five (5) year period supports the healthcare sector via Medical credit fund (MCF). The study examines the impact of credit policy and medical credit funding on Nigerian health market. Ordinary least square analysis, correlation and granger causality tests were employed to measure the extent to which the Nigerian healthcare market has been influenced. Medical credit fund significantly and positively influenced average monthly turnover of private healthcare providers and Commercial bank’s lending rate had a weak relationship with access to credit/approved loans (13.46%). The programme has so far made 13.91% progress, which is very poor, considering the minimum targeted private health care providers (437.6) and expected number of loan approvals (180.4) for the two years. Medical credit policy in Nigeria should be revised to include private healthcare providers in rural area for more positive impact and increased returns. Good brand advert and sensitization of the programme to stakeholders and health pressure group, and an extension of the programme beyond five years is necessary to better address the issues raised in the study.Keywords: Credit, health market, medical credit facility, policy.
Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 1747102 A Comprehensive Survey on Machine Learning Techniques and User Authentication Approaches for Credit Card Fraud Detection
Authors: Niloofar Yousefi, Marie Alaghband, Ivan Garibay
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With the increase of credit card usage, the volume of credit card misuse also has significantly increased, which may cause appreciable financial losses for both credit card holders and financial organizations issuing credit cards. As a result, financial organizations are working hard on developing and deploying credit card fraud detection methods, in order to adapt to ever-evolving, increasingly sophisticated defrauding strategies and identifying illicit transactions as quickly as possible to protect themselves and their customers. Compounding on the complex nature of such adverse strategies, credit card fraudulent activities are rare events compared to the number of legitimate transactions. Hence, the challenge to develop fraud detection that are accurate and efficient is substantially intensified and, as a consequence, credit card fraud detection has lately become a very active area of research. In this work, we provide a survey of current techniques most relevant to the problem of credit card fraud detection. We carry out our survey in two main parts. In the first part, we focus on studies utilizing classical machine learning models, which mostly employ traditional transnational features to make fraud predictions. These models typically rely on some static physical characteristics, such as what the user knows (knowledge-based method), or what he/she has access to (object-based method). In the second part of our survey, we review more advanced techniques of user authentication, which use behavioral biometrics to identify an individual based on his/her unique behavior while he/she is interacting with his/her electronic devices. These approaches rely on how people behave (instead of what they do), which cannot be easily forged. By providing an overview of current approaches and the results reported in the literature, this survey aims to drive the future research agenda for the community in order to develop more accurate, reliable and scalable models of credit card fraud detection.
Keywords: credit card fraud detection, user authentication, behavioral biometrics, machine learning, literature survey
Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 544101 Analysis on the Relationship between Rating and Economic Growth for the European Union Emergent Economies
Authors: Monica Dudian , Raluca Andreea Popa
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This article analyses the relationship between sovereign credit risk rating and gross domestic product for Central and Eastern European Countries for the period 1996 – 2010. In order to study the metioned relationship, we have used a numerical transformation of the risk qualification, thus: we marked 0 the lowest risk; then, we went on ascending, with a pace of 5, up to the score of 355 corresponding to the maximum risk. The used method of analysis is that of econometric modelling with EViews 7.0. programme. This software allows the analysis of data into a pannel type system, involving a mix of periods of time and series of data for different entities. The main conclusion of the work is the one confirming the negative relationship between the sovereign credit risk and the gross domestic product for the Central European and Eastern countries during the reviewed period.Keywords: credit rating agencies, economic growth, gross domestic product, sovereign credit risk rating.
Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 2432100 About the Case Portfolio Management Algorithms and Their Applications
Authors: M. Chumburidze, N. Salia, T. Namchevadze
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This work deals with case processing problems in business. The task of strategic credit requirements management of cases portfolio is discussed. The information model of credit requirements in a binary tree diagram is considered. The algorithms to solve issues of prioritizing clusters of cases in business have been investigated. An implementation of priority queues to support case management operations has been presented. The corresponding pseudo codes for the programming application have been constructed. The tools applied in this development are based on binary tree ordering algorithms, optimization theory, and business management methods.
Keywords: Credit network, case portfolio, binary tree, priority queue, stack.
Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 7699 Multiclass Support Vector Machines with Simultaneous Multi-Factors Optimization for Corporate Credit Ratings
Authors: Hyunchul Ahn, William X. S. Wong
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Corporate credit rating prediction is one of the most important topics, which has been studied by researchers in the last decade. Over the last decade, researchers are pushing the limit to enhance the exactness of the corporate credit rating prediction model by applying several data-driven tools including statistical and artificial intelligence methods. Among them, multiclass support vector machine (MSVM) has been widely applied due to its good predictability. However, heuristics, for example, parameters of a kernel function, appropriate feature and instance subset, has become the main reason for the critics on MSVM, as they have dictate the MSVM architectural variables. This study presents a hybrid MSVM model that is intended to optimize all the parameter such as feature selection, instance selection, and kernel parameter. Our model adopts genetic algorithm (GA) to simultaneously optimize multiple heterogeneous design factors of MSVM.
Keywords: Corporate credit rating prediction, feature selection, genetic algorithms, instance selection, multiclass support vector machines.
Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 141198 Role of Credit on Production Efficiency of Farming Sector in Pakistan(A Data Envelopment Analysis)
Authors: Saima Ayaz, Zakir Hussain, Maqbool Hussain Sial
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The study identified the sources of production inefficiency of the farming sector in district Faisalabad in the Punjab province of Pakistan. Data Envelopment Analysis (DEA) technique was utilized at farm level survey data of 300 farmers for the year 2009. The overall mean efficiency score was 0.78 indicating 22 percent inefficiency of the sample farmers. Computed efficiency scores were then regressed on farm specific variables using Tobit regression analysis. Farming experience, education, access to farming credit, herd size and number of cultivation practices showed constructive and significant effect on the farmer-s technical efficiency.Keywords: Agricultural credit, DEA, Technical efficiency, Tobit analysis
Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 235197 The Impact of Bank Consolidation on the Performance of SMES in Nigeria
Authors: Okolo Chimaobi Valentine
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This paper seeks to assess the implications of bank consolidation on the performance of small and medium scale enterprises in the Nigerian economy. Multiple linear regression technique and correlation matrix test were employed to measure the extent to which small and medium scale enterprises asset size, survival and access to credit were influenced. The result showed that bank deposit (BD) and bank credit (L or BC) impacted on asset size and survival of small and medium scale enterprises. None of the variables had significant impact on SMEs access to credit. There is a shift of focus by commercial banks away from small and medium scale enterprises (small customers), which is evidenced by the significant negative influence of bank credit to both the survival and asset size of small and medium enterprises. While micro finance banks work hard at providing funds to small and medium scale entrepreneurs, their capacity to meet the needs of these entrepreneurs is constrained. CBN should make policies that will boost micro finance bank’s capital and also monitor closely the management of the banks to ensure prudent financing of small and medium scale investments.Keywords: Bank consolidation, small and medium enterprises.
Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 390896 Corporate Credit Rating using Multiclass Classification Models with order Information
Authors: Hyunchul Ahn, Kyoung-Jae Kim
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Corporate credit rating prediction using statistical and artificial intelligence (AI) techniques has been one of the attractive research topics in the literature. In recent years, multiclass classification models such as artificial neural network (ANN) or multiclass support vector machine (MSVM) have become a very appealing machine learning approaches due to their good performance. However, most of them have only focused on classifying samples into nominal categories, thus the unique characteristic of the credit rating - ordinality - has been seldom considered in their approaches. This study proposes new types of ANN and MSVM classifiers, which are named OMANN and OMSVM respectively. OMANN and OMSVM are designed to extend binary ANN or SVM classifiers by applying ordinal pairwise partitioning (OPP) strategy. These models can handle ordinal multiple classes efficiently and effectively. To validate the usefulness of these two models, we applied them to the real-world bond rating case. We compared the results of our models to those of conventional approaches. The experimental results showed that our proposed models improve classification accuracy in comparison to typical multiclass classification techniques with the reduced computation resource.Keywords: Artificial neural network, Corporate credit rating, Support vector machines, Ordinal pairwise partitioning
Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 3440