Search results for: threshold estimation

Authors: Oksana G. Cherednichenko, Anastasia L. Pilyugina, Sergey N.Lukashenko, Elena G. Gubitskaya

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The estimation of accumulated radiation doses in people professionally exposed to ionizing radiation was performed using methods of biological (chromosomal aberrations frequency in lymphocytes) and physical (radionuclides analysis in urine, whole-body radiation meter, individual thermoluminescent dosimeters) dosimetry. A group of 84 "A" category employees after their work in the territory of former Semipalatinsk test site (Kazakhstan) was investigated. The dose rate in some funnels exceeds 40 μSv/h. After radionuclides determination in urine using radiochemical and WBC methods, it was shown that the total effective dose of personnel internal exposure did not exceed 0.2 mSv/year, while an acceptable dose limit for staff is 20 mSv/year. The range of external radiation doses measured with individual thermo-luminescent dosimeters was 0.3-1.406 µSv. The cytogenetic examination showed that chromosomal aberrations frequency in staff was 4.27±0.22%, which is significantly higher than at the people from non-polluting settlement Tausugur (0.87±0.1%) (р ≤ 0.01) and citizens of Almaty (1.6±0.12%) (р≤ 0.01). Chromosomal type aberrations accounted for 2.32±0.16%, 0.27±0.06% of which were dicentrics and centric rings. The cytogenetic analysis of different types group radiosensitivity among «professionals» (age, sex, ethnic group, epidemiological data) revealed no significant differences between the compared values. Using various techniques by frequency of dicentrics and centric rings, the average cumulative radiation dose for group was calculated, and that was 0.084-0.143 Gy. To perform comparative individual dosimetry using physical and biological methods of dose assessment, calibration curves (including own ones) and regression equations based on general frequency of chromosomal aberrations obtained after irradiation of blood samples by gamma-radiation with the dose rate of 0,1 Gy/min were used. Herewith, on the assumption of individual variation of chromosomal aberrations frequency (1–10%), the accumulated dose of radiation varied 0-0.3 Gy. The main problem in the interpretation of individual dosimetry results is reduced to different reaction of the objects to irradiation - radiosensitivity, which dictates the need of quantitative definition of this individual reaction and its consideration in the calculation of the received radiation dose. The entire examined contingent was assigned to a group based on the received dose and detected cytogenetic aberrations. Radiosensitive individuals, at the lowest received dose in a year, showed the highest frequency of chromosomal aberrations (5.72%). In opposite, radioresistant individuals showed the lowest frequency of chromosomal aberrations (2.8%). The cohort correlation according to the criterion of radio-sensitivity in our research was distributed as follows: radio-sensitive (26.2%) — medium radio-sensitivity (57.1%), radioresistant (16.7%). Herewith, the dispersion for radioresistant individuals is 2.3; for the group with medium radio-sensitivity — 3.3; and for radio-sensitive group — 9. These data indicate the highest variation of characteristic (reactions to radiation effect) in the group of radio-sensitive individuals. People with medium radio-sensitivity show significant long-term correlation (0.66; n=48, β ≥ 0.999) between the values of doses defined according to the results of cytogenetic analysis and dose of external radiation obtained with the help of thermoluminescent dosimeters. Mathematical models based on the type of violation of the radiation dose according to the professionals radiosensitivity level were offered.

Keywords: biodosimetry, chromosomal aberrations, ionizing radiation, radiosensitivity

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Authors: Kavitha Madhu, Karthik K. Srinivasan, R. Sivanandan

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Indian traffic can be considered as mixed and heterogeneous due to the presence of various types of vehicles that operate with weak lane discipline. Consequently, vehicles can position themselves anywhere in the traffic stream depending on availability of gaps. The choice of lateral positioning is an important component in representing and characterizing mixed traffic. The field data provides evidence that the trajectory of vehicles in Indian urban roads have significantly varying longitudinal and lateral components. Further, the notion of headway which is widely used for homogeneous traffic simulation is not well defined in conditions lacking lane discipline. From field data it is clear that following is not strict as in homogeneous and lane disciplined conditions and neighbouring vehicles ahead of a given vehicle and those adjacent to it could also influence the subject vehicles choice of position, speed and acceleration. Given these empirical features, the suitability of using headway distributions to characterize mixed traffic in Indian cities is questionable, and needs to be modified appropriately. To address these issues, this paper attempts to analyze the time gap distribution between consecutive vehicles (in a time-sense) crossing a section of roadway. More specifically, to characterize the complex interactions noted above, the influence of composition, manoeuvre types, and lateral placement characteristics on time gap distribution is quantified in this paper. The developed model is used for evaluating various performance measures such as link speed, midblock delay and intersection delay which further helps to characterise the vehicular fuel consumption and emission on urban roads of India. Identifying and analyzing exact interactions between various classes of vehicles in the traffic stream is essential for increasing the accuracy and realism of microscopic traffic flow modelling. In this regard, this study aims to develop and analyze time gap distribution models and quantify it by lead lag pair, manoeuvre type and lateral position characteristics in heterogeneous non-lane based traffic. Once the modelling scheme is developed, this can be used for estimating the vehicle kilometres travelled for the entire traffic system which helps to determine the vehicular fuel consumption and emission. The approach to this objective involves: data collection, statistical modelling and parameter estimation, simulation using calibrated time-gap distribution and its validation, empirical analysis of simulation result and associated traffic flow parameters, and application to analyze illustrative traffic policies. In particular, video graphic methods are used for data extraction from urban mid-block sections in Chennai, where the data comprises of vehicle type, vehicle position (both longitudinal and lateral), speed and time gap. Statistical tests are carried out to compare the simulated data with the actual data and the model performance is evaluated. The effect of integration of above mentioned factors in vehicle generation is studied by comparing the performance measures like density, speed, flow, capacity, area occupancy etc under various traffic conditions and policies. The implications of the quantified distributions and simulation model for estimating the PCU (Passenger Car Units), capacity and level of service of the system are also discussed.

Keywords: lateral movement, mixed traffic condition, simulation modeling, vehicle following models

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Authors: L. Salomon, P. Sklenar

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The Andes hold the highest plant species diversity in the world. How this occurred is one of the most intriguing questions in studies addressing the origin and patterning of plant diversity worldwide. Recently, the explosive adaptive radiations found in high Andean groups have been pointed as triggers to this spectacular diversity. The Andes is the species-richest area for the biggest genus from the Asteraceae family: Senecio. There, the genus presents an incredible diversity of species, striking growth form variation, and large niche span. Even when some studies tried to disentangle the evolutionary story for some Andean species in Senecio, they obtained partially resolved and low supported phylogenies, as expected for recently radiated groups. The high-throughput sequencing (HTS) approaches have proved to be a powerful tool answering phylogenetic questions in those groups whose evolutionary stories are recent and traditional techniques like Sanger sequencing are not informative enough. Although these tools have been used to understand the evolution of an increasing number of Andean groups, nowadays, their scope has not been applied for Senecio. This project aims to contribute to a better knowledge of the mechanisms shaping the hyper diversity of Senecio in the Andean region, using HTS focusing on Senecio ser. Culcitium (Asteraceae), recently recircumscribed. Firstly, reconstructing a highly resolved and supported phylogeny, and after assessing the role of allopatric differentiation, hybridization, and genome duplication in the diversification of the group. Using the Hyb-Seq approach, combining target enrichment using Asteraceae COS loci baits and genome skimming, more than 100 new accessions were generated. HybPhyloMaker and HybPiper pipelines were used for the phylogenetic analyses, and another pipeline in development (Paralogue Wizard) was used to deal with paralogues. RAxML was used to generate gene trees and Astral for species tree reconstruction. Phyparts were used to explore as first step of gene tree discordance along the clades. Fully resolved with moderated supported trees were obtained, showing Senecio ser. Culcitium as monophyletic. Within the group, some species formed well-supported clades with morphologically related species, while some species would not have exclusive ancestry, in concordance with previous studies using amplified fragment length polymorphism (AFLP) showing geographical differentiation. Discordance between gene trees was detected. Paralogues were detected for many loci, indicating possible genome duplications; ploidy level estimation using flow cytometry will be carried out during the next months in order to identify the role of this process in the diversification of the group. Likewise, TreeSetViz package for Mesquite, hierarchical likelihood ratio congruence test using Concaterpillar, and Procrustean Approach to Cophylogeny (PACo), will be used to evaluate the congruence among different inheritance patterns. In order to evaluate the influence of hybridization and Incomplete Lineage Sorting (ILS) in each resultant clade from the phylogeny, Joly et al.'s 2009 method in a coalescent scenario and Paterson’s D-statistic will be performed. Even when the main discordance sources between gene trees were not explored in detail yet, the data show that at least to some degree, processes such as genome duplication, hybridization, and/or ILS could be involved in the evolution of the group.

Keywords: adaptive radiations, Andes, genome duplication, hybridization, Senecio

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Authors: Linna Li

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The capability to move around places is doubtless very important for individuals to maintain good health and social functions. People’s activities in space and time have long been a research topic in behavioral and socio-economic studies, particularly focusing on the highly dynamic urban environment. By analyzing groups of people who share similar activity patterns, many socio-economic and socio-demographic problems and their relationships with individual behavior preferences can be revealed. Los Angeles, known for its large population, ethnic diversity, cultural mixing, and entertainment industry, faces great transportation challenges such as traffic congestion, parking difficulties, and long commuting. Understanding people’s travel behavior and movement patterns in this metropolis sheds light on potential solutions to complex problems regarding urban mobility. This project visualizes people’s trajectories in Greater Los Angeles (L.A.) Area over a period of two months using Twitter data. A Python script was used to collect georeferenced tweets within the Greater L.A. Area including Ventura, San Bernardino, Riverside, Los Angeles, and Orange counties. Information associated with tweets includes text, time, location, and user ID. Information associated with users includes name, the number of followers, etc. Both aggregated and individual activity patterns are demonstrated using various geovisualization techniques. Locations of individual Twitter users were aggregated to create a surface of activity hot spots at different time instants using kernel density estimation, which shows the dynamic flow of people’s movement throughout the metropolis in a twenty-four-hour cycle. In the 3D geovisualization interface, the z-axis indicates time that covers 24 hours, and the x-y plane shows the geographic space of the city. Any two points on the z axis can be selected for displaying activity density surface within a particular time period. In addition, daily trajectories of Twitter users were created using space-time paths that show the continuous movement of individuals throughout the day. When a personal trajectory is overlaid on top of ancillary layers including land use and road networks in 3D visualization, the vivid representation of a realistic view of the urban environment boosts situational awareness of the map reader. A comparison of the same individual’s paths on different days shows some regular patterns on weekdays for some Twitter users, but for some other users, their daily trajectories are more irregular and sporadic. This research makes contributions in two major areas: geovisualization of spatial footprints to understand travel behavior using the big data approach and dynamic representation of activity space in the Greater Los Angeles Area. Unlike traditional travel surveys, social media (e.g., Twitter) provides an inexpensive way of data collection on spatio-temporal footprints. The visualization techniques used in this project are also valuable for analyzing other spatio-temporal data in the exploratory stage, thus leading to informed decisions about generating and testing hypotheses for further investigation. The next step of this research is to separate users into different groups based on gender/ethnic origin and compare their daily trajectory patterns.

Keywords: geovisualization, human mobility pattern, Los Angeles, social media

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Authors: Sebastian Kehne, Alexander Epple, Werner Herfs

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A new method for optimal selection of components for multi-axes forward-feed drive systems is proposed in which the choice of motors, gear boxes and ball screw drives is optimized. Essential is here the synchronization of electrical and mechanical frequency behavior of all axes because even advanced controls (like H∞-controls) can only control a small part of the mechanical modes – namely only those of observable and controllable states whose value can be derived from the positions of extern linear length measurement systems and/or rotary encoders on the motor or gear box shafts. Further problems are the unknown processing forces like cutting forces in machine tools during normal operation which make the estimation and control via an observer even more difficult. To start with, the open source Modelica Feed Drive Library which was developed at the Laboratory for Machine Tools, and Production Engineering (WZL) is extended from one axis design to the multi axes design. It is capable to simulate the mechanical, electrical and thermal behavior of permanent magnet synchronous machines with inverters, different gear boxes and ball screw drives in a mechanical system. To keep the calculation time down analytical equations are used for field and torque producing equivalent circuit, heat dissipation and mechanical torque at the shaft. As a first step, a small machine tool with a working area of 635 x 315 x 420 mm is taken apart, and the mechanical transfer behavior is measured with an impulse hammer and acceleration sensors. With the frequency transfer functions, a mechanical finite element model is built up which is reduced with substructure coupling to a mass-damper system which models the most important modes of the axes. The model is modelled with Modelica Feed Drive Library and validated by further relative measurements between machine table and spindle holder with a piezo actor and acceleration sensors. In a next step, the choice of possible components in motor catalogues is limited by derived analytical formulas which are based on well-known metrics to gain effective power and torque of the components. The simulation in Modelica is run with different permanent magnet synchronous motors, gear boxes and ball screw drives from different suppliers. To speed up the optimization different black-box optimization methods (Surrogate-based, gradient-based and evolutionary) are tested on the case. The objective that was chosen is to minimize the integral of the deviations if a step is given on the position controls of the different axes. Small values are good measures for a high dynamic axes. In each iteration (evaluation of one set of components) the control variables are adjusted automatically to have an overshoot less than 1%. It is obtained that the order of the components in optimization problem has a deep impact on the speed of the black-box optimization. An approach to do efficient black-box optimization for multi-axes design is presented in the last part. The authors would like to thank the German Research Foundation DFG for financial support of the project “Optimierung des mechatronischen Entwurfs von mehrachsigen Antriebssystemen (HE 5386/14-1 | 6954/4-1)” (English: Optimization of the Mechatronic Design of Multi-Axes Drive Systems).

Keywords: ball screw drive design, discrete optimization, forward feed drives, gear box design, linear drives, machine tools, motor design, multi-axes design

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Authors: Kaleem Kashif, Tayyaba Anam, Yizhi Wu

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This paper introduces a methodology for advancing Italian speech vowels landmark detection within the distinctive feature-based speech recognition domain. Leveraging the legacy tool 'xkl' by integrating combined convolutional neural networks (CNNs) and recurrent neural networks (RNNs), the study presents a comprehensive enhancement to the 'xkl' legacy software. This integration incorporates re-assigned spectrogram methodologies, enabling meticulous acoustic analysis. Simultaneously, our proposed model, integrating combined CNNs and RNNs, demonstrates unprecedented precision and robustness in landmark detection. The augmentation of re-assigned spectrogram fusion within the 'xkl' software signifies a meticulous advancement, particularly enhancing precision related to vowel formant estimation. This augmentation catalyzes unparalleled accuracy in landmark detection, resulting in a substantial performance leap compared to conventional methods. The proposed model emerges as a state-of-the-art solution in the distinctive feature-based speech recognition systems domain. In the realm of deep learning, a synergistic integration of combined CNNs and RNNs is introduced, endowed with specialized temporal embeddings, harnessing self-attention mechanisms, and positional embeddings. The proposed model allows it to excel in capturing intricate dependencies within Italian speech vowels, rendering it highly adaptable and sophisticated in the distinctive feature domain. Furthermore, our advanced temporal modeling approach employs Bayesian temporal encoding, refining the measurement of inter-landmark intervals. Comparative analysis against state-of-the-art models reveals a substantial improvement in accuracy, highlighting the robustness and efficacy of the proposed methodology. Upon rigorous testing on a database (LaMIT) speech recorded in a silent room by four Italian native speakers, the landmark detector demonstrates exceptional performance, achieving a 95% true detection rate and a 10% false detection rate. A majority of missed landmarks were observed in proximity to reduced vowels. These promising results underscore the robust identifiability of landmarks within the speech waveform, establishing the feasibility of employing a landmark detector as a front end in a speech recognition system. The synergistic integration of re-assigned spectrogram fusion, CNNs, RNNs, and Bayesian temporal encoding not only signifies a significant advancement in Italian speech vowels landmark detection but also positions the proposed model as a leader in the field. The model offers distinct advantages, including unparalleled accuracy, adaptability, and sophistication, marking a milestone in the intersection of deep learning and distinctive feature-based speech recognition. This work contributes to the broader scientific community by presenting a methodologically rigorous framework for enhancing landmark detection accuracy in Italian speech vowels. The integration of cutting-edge techniques establishes a foundation for future advancements in speech signal processing, emphasizing the potential of the proposed model in practical applications across various domains requiring robust speech recognition systems.

Keywords: landmark detection, acoustic analysis, convolutional neural network, recurrent neural network

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Authors: Ekta Yadav, Sukanta Bhattacharya, Brijesh Yadav, Ariel Hus, Jagjit Yadav

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Background and Significance: Respiratory exposure to toxicants (chemicals or particulates) causes disruption of lung homeostasis leading to lung toxicity/injury manifested as pulmonary inflammation, edema, and/or other effects depending on the type and extent of exposure. This emphasizes the need for investigating toxicant type-specific mechanisms to understand therapeutic targets. Aquaporins, aka water channels, are known to play a role in lung homeostasis. Particularly, the two major lung aquaporins AQP5 and AQP1 expressed in alveolar epithelial and vasculature endothelia respectively allow for movement of the fluid between the alveolar air space and the associated vasculature. In view of this, the current study is focused on understanding the regulation of lung aquaporins and other targets during inhalation exposure to toxic chemicals (Cigarette smoke chemicals) versus toxic particles (Carbon nanoparticles) or co-exposures to understand their relevance as markers of injury and intervention. Methodologies: C57BL/6 mice (5-7 weeks old) were used in this study following an approved protocol by the University of Cincinnati Institutional Animal Care and Use Committee (IACUC). The mice were exposed via oropharyngeal aspiration to multiwall carbon nanotube (MWCNT) particles suspension once (33 ugs/mouse) followed by housing for four weeks or to Cigarette smoke Extract (CSE) using a daily dose of 30µl/mouse for four weeks, or to co-exposure using the combined regime. Control groups received vehicles following the same dosing schedule. Lung toxicity/injury was assessed in terms of homeostasis changes in the lung tissue and lumen. Exposed lungs were analyzed for transcriptional expression of specific targets (AQPs, surfactant protein A, Mucin 5b) in relation to tissue homeostasis. Total RNA from lungs extracted using TRIreagent kit was analyzed using qRT-PCR based on gene-specific primers. Total protein in bronchoalveolar lavage (BAL) fluid was determined by the DC protein estimation kit (BioRad). GraphPad Prism 5.0 (La Jolla, CA, USA) was used for all analyses. Major findings: CNT exposure alone or as co-exposure with CSE increased the total protein content in the BAL fluid (lung lumen rinse), implying compromised membrane integrity and cellular infiltration in the lung alveoli. In contrast, CSE showed no significant effect. AQP1, required for water transport across membranes of endothelial cells in lungs, was significantly upregulated in CNT exposure but downregulated in CSE exposure and showed an intermediate level of expression for the co-exposure group. Both CNT and CSE exposures had significant downregulating effects on Muc5b, and SP-A expression and the co-exposure showed either no significant effect (Muc5b) or significant downregulating effect (SP-A), suggesting an increased propensity for infection in the exposed lungs. Conclusions: The current study based on the lung toxicity mouse model showed that both toxicant types, particles (CNT) versus chemicals (CSE), cause similar downregulation of lung innate defense targets (SP-A, Muc5b) and mostly a summative effect when presented as co-exposure. However, the two toxicant types show differential induction of aquaporin-1 coinciding with the corresponding differential damage to alveolar integrity (vascular permeability). Interestingly, this implies the potential of AQP1 as a differential marker of toxicant type-specific lung injury.

Keywords: aquaporin, gene expression, lung injury, toxicant exposure

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Authors: Atabaev I. G., Fayziev Sh. A., Irmatova Sh. K.

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Raw materials with high content of Kalium oxide widely used in ceramic technology for prevention or decreasing of deformation of ceramic goods during drying process and under thermal annealing. Becouse to low melting temperature it is also used to decreasing of the temperature of thermal annealing during fabrication of ceramic goods [1,2]. So called “Porceline or China stones” - quartz-sericite (muscovite) minerals is also can be used for prevention of deformation as the content of Kalium oxide in muscovite is rather high (SiO2, + KAl2[AlSi3O10](OH)2). [3] . To estimation of possibility of use of this mineral for ceramic manufacture, in the presented article the influence of thermal processing on phase and a chemical content of this raw material is investigated. As well as to other ceramic raw materials (kaoline, white burning clays) the basic requirements of the industry to quality of "a porcelain stone» are following: small size of particles, relative high uniformity of disrtribution of components and phase, white color after burning, small content of colorant oxides or chromophores (Fe2O3, FeO, TiO2, etc) [4,5]. In the presented work natural minerale from the Boynaksay deposit (Uzbekistan) is investigated. The samples was mechanically polished for investigation by Scanning Electron Microscope. Powder with size of particle up to 63 μm was used to X-ray diffractometry and chemical analysis. The annealing of samples was performed at 900, 1120, 1350oC during 1 hour. Chemical composition of Boynaksay raw material according to chemical analysis presented in the table 1. For comparison the composition of raw materials from Russia and USA are also presented. In the Boynaksay quartz – sericite the average parity of quartz and sericite makes 55-60 and 30-35 % accordingly. The distribution of quartz and sericite phases in raw material was investigated using electron probe scanning electronic microscope «JEOL» JXA-8800R. In the figure 1 the scanning electron microscope (SEM) micrograps of the surface and the distributions of Al, Si and K atoms in the sample are presented. As it seen small granular, white and dense mineral includes quartz, sericite and small content of impurity minerals. Basically, crystals of quartz have the sizes from 80 up to 500 μm. Between quartz crystals the sericite inclusions having a tablet form with radiant structure are located. The size of sericite crystals is ~ 40-250 μm. Using data on interplanar distance [6,7] and ASTM Powder X-ray Diffraction Data it is shown that natural «a porcelain stone» quartz – sericite consists the quartz SiO2, sericite (muscovite type) KAl2[AlSi3O10](OH)2 and kaolinite Al203SiO22Н2О (See Figure 2 and Table 2). As it seen in the figure 3 and table 3a after annealing at 900oC the quartz – sericite contains quartz – SiO2 and muscovite - KAl2[AlSi3O10](OH)2, the peaks related with Kaolinite are absent. After annealing at 1120oC the full disintegration of muscovite and formation of mullite phase Al203 SiO2 is observed (the weak peaks of mullite appears in fig 3b and table 3b). After annealing at 1350oC the samples contains crystal phase of quartz and mullite (figure 3c and table 3с). Well known Mullite gives to ceramics high density, abrasive and chemical stability. Thus the obtained experimental data on formation of various phases during thermal annealing can be used for development of fabrication technology of advanced materials. Conclusion: The influence of thermal annealing in the interval 900-1350oC on phase composition and structure of quartz-sericite minerale is investigated. It is shown that during annealing the phase content of raw material is changed. After annealing at 1350oC the samples contains crystal phase of quartz and mullite (which gives gives to ceramics high density, abrasive and chemical stability).

Keywords: quartz-sericite, kaolinite, mullite, thermal processing

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Authors: Utkarsh A. Mishra, Ankit Bansal

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At high temperature, radiative heat transfer is the dominant mode of heat transfer. It is governed by various phenomena such as photon emission, absorption, and scattering. The solution of the governing integrodifferential equation of radiative transfer is a complex process, more when the effect of participating medium and wavelength properties are taken into consideration. Although a generic formulation of such radiative transport problem can be modeled for a wide variety of problems with non-gray, non-diffusive surfaces, there is always a trade-off between simplicity and accuracy of the problem. Recently, solutions of complicated mathematical problems with statistical methods based on randomization of naturally occurring phenomena have gained significant importance. Photon bundles with discrete energy can be replicated with random numbers describing the emission, absorption, and scattering processes. Photon Monte Carlo (PMC) is a simple, yet powerful technique, to solve radiative transfer problems in complicated geometries with arbitrary participating medium. The method, on the one hand, increases the accuracy of estimation, and on the other hand, increases the computational cost. The participating media -generally a gas, such as CO₂, CO, and H₂O- present complex emission and absorption spectra. To model the emission/absorption accurately with random numbers requires a weighted sampling as different sections of the spectrum carries different importance. Importance sampling (IS) was implemented to sample random photon of arbitrary wavelength, and the sampled data provided unbiased training of MC estimators for better results. A better replacement to uniform random numbers is using deterministic, quasi-random sequences. Halton, Sobol, and Faure Low-Discrepancy Sequences are used in this study. They possess better space-filling performance than the uniform random number generator and gives rise to a low variance, stable Quasi-Monte Carlo (QMC) estimators with faster convergence. An optimal supervised learning scheme was further considered to reduce the computation costs of the PMC simulation. A one-dimensional plane-parallel slab problem with participating media was formulated. The history of some randomly sampled photon bundles is recorded to train an Artificial Neural Network (ANN), back-propagation model. The flux was calculated using the standard quasi PMC and was considered to be the training target. Results obtained with the proposed model for the one-dimensional problem are compared with the exact analytical and PMC model with the Line by Line (LBL) spectral model. The approximate variance obtained was around 3.14%. Results were analyzed with respect to time and the total flux in both cases. A significant reduction in variance as well a faster rate of convergence was observed in the case of the QMC method over the standard PMC method. However, the results obtained with the ANN method resulted in greater variance (around 25-28%) as compared to the other cases. There is a great scope of machine learning models to help in further reduction of computation cost once trained successfully. Multiple ways of selecting the input data as well as various architectures will be tried such that the concerned environment can be fully addressed to the ANN model. Better results can be achieved in this unexplored domain.

Keywords: radiative heat transfer, Monte Carlo Method, pseudo-random numbers, low discrepancy sequences, artificial neural networks

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Authors: Kazuhiro Tateda, Elisa Gonzalez, Shuhei Ito, Kirstin Heinrich, Kevin Sweetland, Pingping Zhang, Catia Ferreira, Michael Pride, Jennifer Moisi, Sharon Gray, Bennett Lee, Fred Angulo

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Clostridium difficile (C. difficile) is the most common cause of antibiotic-associated diarrhea and infectious diarrhea in healthcare settings. Japan has an aging population; the elderly are at increased risk of hospitalization, antibiotic use, and C. difficile infection (CDI). Little is known about the population-based incidence and disease burden of CDI in Japan although limited hospital-based studies have reported a lower incidence than the United States. To understand CDI disease burden in Japan, CLOUD (Clostridium difficile Infection Burden of Disease in Adults in Japan) was developed. CLOUD will derive population-based incidence estimates of the number of CDI cases per 100,000 population per year in Ota-ku (population 723,341), one of the districts in Tokyo, Japan. CLOUD will include approximately 14 of the 28 Ota-ku hospitals including Toho University Hospital, which is a 1,000 bed tertiary care teaching hospital. During the 12-month patient enrollment period, which is scheduled to begin in November 2018, Ota-ku residents > 50 years of age who are hospitalized at a participating hospital with diarrhea ( > 3 unformed stools (Bristol Stool Chart 5-7) in 24 hours) will be actively ascertained, consented, and enrolled by study surveillance staff. A stool specimen will be collected from enrolled patients and tested at a local reference laboratory (LSI Medience, Tokyo) using QUIK CHEK COMPLETE® (Abbott Laboratories). which simultaneously tests specimens for the presence of glutamate dehydrogenase (GDH) and C. difficile toxins A and B. A frozen stool specimen will also be sent to the Pfizer Laboratory (Pearl River, United States) for analysis using a two-step diagnostic testing algorithm that is based on detection of C. difficile strains/spores harboring toxin B gene by PCR followed by detection of free toxins (A and B) using a proprietary cell cytotoxicity neutralization assay (CCNA) developed by Pfizer. Positive specimens will be anaerobically cultured, and C. difficile isolates will be characterized by ribotyping and whole genomic sequencing. CDI patients enrolled in CLOUD will be contacted weekly for 90 days following diarrhea onset to describe clinical outcomes including recurrence, reinfection, and mortality, and patient reported economic, clinical and humanistic outcomes (e.g., health-related quality of life, worsening of comorbidities, and patient and caregiver work absenteeism). Studies will also be undertaken to fully characterize the catchment area to enable population-based estimates. The 12-month active ascertainment of CDI cases among hospitalized Ota-ku residents with diarrhea in CLOUD, and the characterization of the Ota-ku catchment area, including estimation of the proportion of all hospitalizations of Ota-ku residents that occur in the CLOUD-participating hospitals, will yield CDI population-based incidence estimates, which can be stratified by age groups, risk groups, and source (hospital-acquired or community-acquired). These incidence estimates will be extrapolated, following age standardization using national census data, to yield CDI disease burden estimates for Japan. CLOUD also serves as a model for studies in other countries that can use the CLOUD protocol to estimate CDI disease burden.

Keywords: Clostridium difficile, disease burden, epidemiology, study protocol

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Authors: Dhekra Khazri, Hakim Gabtni

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Because of Sidi Bouzid water table overexploitation, this study aims at integrating geophysical methods to determinate aquifers geometry assessing their geological situation and geophysical characteristics. However in highly tectonic zones controlled by Atlassic structural features with NE-SW major directions (central Tunisia), Bouguer gravimetric responses of some areas can be as much dominated by the regional structural tendency, as being non-identified or either defectively interpreted such as the case of Sidi Bouzid basin. This issue required a residual gravity anomaly elaboration isolating the Sidi Bouzid basin gravity response ranging between -8 and -14 mGal and crucial for its aquifers geometry characterization. Several gravity techniques helped constructing the Sidi Bouzid basin's residual gravity anomaly, such as Upwards continuation compared to polynomial regression trends and power spectrum analysis detecting deep basement sources at (3km), intermediate (2km) and shallow sources (1km). A 3D Euler Deconvolution was also performed detecting deepest accidents trending NE-SW, N-S and E-W with depth values reaching 5500 m and delineating the main outcropping structures of the study area. Further gravity treatments highlighted the subsurface geometry and structural features of Sidi Bouzid basin over Horizontal and vertical gradient, and also filters based on them such as Tilt angle and Source Edge detector locating rooted edges or peaks from potential field data detecting a new E-W lineament compartmentalizing the Sidi Bouzid gutter into two unequally residual anomaly and subsiding domains. This subsurface morphology is also detected by the used 2D seismic reflection sections defining the Sidi Bouzid basin as a deep gutter within a tectonic set of negative flower structures, and collapsed and tilted blocks. Furthermore, these structural features were confirmed by forward gravity modeling process over several modeled residual gravity profiles crossing the main area. Sidi Bouzid basin (central Tunisia) is also of a big interest cause of the unknown total thickness and the undefined substratum of its siliciclastic Tertiary package, and its aquifers unbounded structural subsurface features and deep accidents. The Combination of geological, hydrogeological and geophysical methods is then of an ultimate need. Therefore, a geophysical methods integration based on gravity survey supporting available seismic data through forward gravity modeling, enhanced lateral and vertical extent definition of the basin's complex sedimentary fill via 3D gravity models, improved depth estimation by a depth to basement modeling approach, and provided 3D isochronous seismic mapping visualization of the basin's Tertiary complex refining its geostructural schema. A subsurface basin geomorphology mapping, over an ultimate matching between the basin's residual gravity map and the calculated theoretical signature map, was also displayed over the modeled residual gravity profiles. An ultimate multidisciplinary geophysical study of the Sidi Bouzid basin aquifers can be accomplished via an aeromagnetic survey and a 4D Microgravity reservoir monitoring offering temporal tracking of the target aquifer's subsurface fluid dynamics enhancing and rationalizing future groundwater exploitation in this arid area of central Tunisia.

Keywords: aquifer geometry, geophysics, 3D gravity modeling, improved depths, source edge detector

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Authors: Jeremie Coullon, Robert J. Webber

Abstract:

We introduce a Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) sam-pler for infinite-dimensional inverse problems. Our sam-pler is based on the affine invariant ensemble sampler, which uses interacting walkers to adapt to the covariance structure of the target distribution. We extend this ensem-ble sampler for the first time to infinite-dimensional func-tion spaces, yielding a highly efficient gradient-free MCMC algorithm. Because our ensemble sampler does not require gradients or posterior covariance estimates, it is simple to implement and broadly applicable. In many Bayes-ian inverse problems, Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) meth-ods are needed to approximate distributions on infinite-dimensional function spaces, for example, in groundwater flow, medical imaging, and traffic flow. Yet designing efficient MCMC methods for function spaces has proved challenging. Recent gradi-ent-based MCMC methods preconditioned MCMC methods, and SMC methods have improved the computational efficiency of functional random walk. However, these samplers require gradi-ents or posterior covariance estimates that may be challenging to obtain. Calculating gradients is difficult or impossible in many high-dimensional inverse problems involving a numerical integra-tor with a black-box code base. Additionally, accurately estimating posterior covariances can require a lengthy pilot run or adaptation period. These concerns raise the question: is there a functional sampler that outperforms functional random walk without requir-ing gradients or posterior covariance estimates? To address this question, we consider a gradient-free sampler that avoids explicit covariance estimation yet adapts naturally to the covariance struc-ture of the sampled distribution. This sampler works by consider-ing an ensemble of walkers and interpolating and extrapolating between walkers to make a proposal. This is called the affine in-variant ensemble sampler (AIES), which is easy to tune, easy to parallelize, and efficient at sampling spaces of moderate dimen-sionality (less than 20). The main contribution of this work is to propose a functional ensemble sampler (FES) that combines func-tional random walk and AIES. To apply this sampler, we first cal-culate the Karhunen–Loeve (KL) expansion for the Bayesian prior distribution, assumed to be Gaussian and trace-class. Then, we use AIES to sample the posterior distribution on the low-wavenumber KL components and use the functional random walk to sample the posterior distribution on the high-wavenumber KL components. Alternating between AIES and functional random walk updates, we obtain our functional ensemble sampler that is efficient and easy to use without requiring detailed knowledge of the target dis-tribution. In past work, several authors have proposed splitting the Bayesian posterior into low-wavenumber and high-wavenumber components and then applying enhanced sampling to the low-wavenumber components. Yet compared to these other samplers, FES is unique in its simplicity and broad applicability. FES does not require any derivatives, and the need for derivative-free sam-plers has previously been emphasized. FES also eliminates the requirement for posterior covariance estimates. Lastly, FES is more efficient than other gradient-free samplers in our tests. In two nu-merical examples, we apply FES to challenging inverse problems that involve estimating a functional parameter and one or more scalar parameters. We compare the performance of functional random walk, FES, and an alternative derivative-free sampler that explicitly estimates the posterior covariance matrix. We conclude that FES is the fastest available gradient-free sampler for these challenging and multimodal test problems.

Keywords: Bayesian inverse problems, Markov chain Monte Carlo, infinite-dimensional inverse problems, dimensionality reduction

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Authors: Heather E. Ewart, Keith Jensen, Rebecca N. Cliffe

Abstract:

Fragmentation and changes in the structural composition of tropical forests – as a result of intensifying anthropogenic disturbance – are increasing pressures on local biodiversity. Species with low dispersal abilities have some of the highest extinction risks in response to environmental change, as even small-scale environmental variation can substantially impact their space use and energetic balance. Understanding the implications of forest disturbance is therefore essential, ultimately allowing for more effective and targeted conservation initiatives. Here, the impact of different levels of forest disturbance on the space use, energetics, movement and behavior of 18 brown-throated sloths (Bradypus variegatus) were assessed in the South Caribbean of Costa Rica. A multi-scale framework was used to measure forest disturbance, including large-scale (landscape-level classifications) and fine-scale (within and surrounding individual home ranges) forest composition. Three landscape-level classifications were identified: primary forests (undisturbed), secondary forests (some disturbance, regenerating) and urban forests (high levels of disturbance and fragmentation). Finer-scale forest composition was determined using measurements of habitat structure and quality within and surrounding individual home ranges for each sloth (home range estimates were calculated using autocorrelated kernel density estimation [AKDE]). Measurements of forest quality included tree connectivity, density, diameter and height, species richness, and percentage of canopy cover. To determine space use, energetics, movement and behavior, six sloths in urban forests, seven sloths in secondary forests and five sloths in primary forests were tracked using a combination of Very High Frequency (VHF) radio transmitters and Global Positioning System (GPS) technology over an average period of 120 days. All sloths were also fitted with micro data-loggers (containing tri-axial accelerometers and pressure loggers) for an average of 30 days to allow for behavior-specific movement analyses (data analysis ongoing for data-loggers and primary forest sloths). Data-loggers included determination of activity budgets, circadian rhythms of activity and energy expenditure (using the vector of the dynamic body acceleration [VeDBA] as a proxy). Analyses to date indicate that home range size significantly increased with the level of forest disturbance. Female sloths inhabiting secondary forests averaged 0.67-hectare home ranges, while female sloths inhabiting urban forests averaged 1.93-hectare home ranges (estimates are represented by median values to account for the individual variation in home range size in sloths). Likewise, home range estimates for male sloths were 2.35 hectares in secondary forests and 4.83 in urban forests. Sloths in urban forests also used nearly double (median = 22.5) the number of trees as sloths in the secondary forest (median = 12). These preliminary data indicate that forest disturbance likely heightens the energetic requirements of sloths, a species already critically limited by low dispersal ability and rates of energy acquisition. Energetic and behavioral analyses from the data-loggers will be considered in the context of fine-scale forest composition measurements (i.e., habitat quality and structure) and are expected to reflect the observed home range and movement constraints. The implications of these results are far-reaching, presenting an opportunity to define a critical index of habitat connectivity for low dispersal species such as sloths.

Keywords: biodiversity conservation, forest disturbance, movement ecology, sloths

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Authors: Gospel Iyioku, Jana Mazancova, Jiri Hejkrlik

Abstract:

The “Agricultural Promotion Policy (2016–2020)” represents a strategic initiative by the Nigerian government to address domestic food shortages and the challenges in exporting products at the required quality standards. Hindered by an inefficient system for setting and enforcing food quality standards, coupled with a lack of market knowledge, the Federal Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Development (FMARD) aims to enhance support for the production and activities of key crops like cashew. By collaborating with farmers, processors, investors, and stakeholders in the cashew sector, the policy seeks to define and uphold high-quality standards across the cashew value chain. Given the challenges and opportunities faced by Nigerian cashew farmers, active participation in cashew marketing groups becomes imperative. These groups serve as essential platforms for farmers to collectively navigate market intricacies, access resources, share knowledge, improve output quality, and bolster their overall bargaining power. Through engagement in these cooperative initiatives, farmers not only boost their economic prospects but can also contribute significantly to the sustainable growth of the cashew industry, fostering resilience and community development. This study explores the perceptions and intentions of farmers regarding their involvement in cashew marketing cooperatives, utilizing an expanded version of the Theory of Planned Behaviour. Drawing insights from a diverse sample of 321 cashew farmers in Southwest Nigeria, the research sheds light on the factors influencing decision-making in cooperative participation. The demographic analysis reveals a diverse landscape, with a substantial presence of middle-aged individuals contributing significantly to the agricultural sector and cashew-related activities emerging as a primary income source for a substantial proportion (23.99%). Employing Structural Equation Modelling (SEM) with Maximum Likelihood Robust (MLR) estimation in R, the research elucidates the associations among latent variables. Despite the model’s complexity, the goodness-of-fit indices attest to the validity of the structural model, explaining approximately 40% of the variance in the intention to join cooperatives. Moral norms emerge as a pivotal construct, highlighting the profound influence of ethical considerations in decision-making processes, while perceived behavioural control presents potential challenges in active participation. Attitudes toward joining cooperatives reveal nuanced perspectives, with strong beliefs in enhanced connections with other farmers but varying perceptions on improved access to essential information. The SEM analysis establishes positive and significant effects of moral norms, perceived behavioural control, subjective norms, and attitudes on farmers’ intention to join cooperatives. The knowledge construct positively affects key factors influencing intention, emphasizing the importance of informed decision-making. A supplementary analysis using partial least squares (PLS) SEM corroborates the robustness of our findings, aligning with covariance-based SEM results. This research unveils the determinants of cooperative participation and provides valuable insights for policymakers and practitioners aiming to empower and support this vital demographic in the cashew industry.

Keywords: marketing cooperatives, theory of planned behaviour, structural equation modelling, cashew farmers

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Authors: Veenapani Rajeev Verma

Abstract:

Context: Assessing facility readiness is paramount as it can indicate capacity of facilities to provide essential care for resilience to health challenges. In the context of decentralization, estimation of supply side readiness indices at sub national level is imperative for effective evidence based policy but remains a colossal challenge due to lack of dependable and representative data sources. Setting: District Poonch of Jammu and Kashmir was selected for this study. It is remote, rural district with unprecedented topographical barriers and is identified as high priority by government. It is also a fragile area as is bounded by Line of Control with Pakistan bearing the brunt of cease fire violations, military skirmishes and sporadic militant attacks. Hilly geographical terrain, rudimentary/absence of road network and impoverishment are quintessential to this area. Objectives: Objective of the study is to a) Evaluate the service readiness of health facilities and create a concise index subsuming plethora of discrete indicators and b) Ascertain supply side barriers in service provisioning via stakeholder’s analysis. Study also strives to expand analytical domain unravelling context and area specific intricacies associated with service delivery. Methodology: Mixed method approach was employed to triangulate quantitative analysis with qualitative nuances. Facility survey encompassing 90 Subcentres, 44 Primary health centres, 3 Community health centres and 1 District hospital was conducted to gauge general service availability and service specific availability (depth of coverage). Compendium of checklist was designed using Indian Public Health Standards (IPHS) in form of standard core questionnaire and scorecard generated for each facility. Information was collected across dimensions of amenities, equipment, medicines, laboratory and infection control protocols as proposed in WHO’s Service Availability and Readiness Assesment (SARA). Two stage polychoric principal component analysis employed to generate a parsimonious index by coalescing an array of tracer indicators. OLS regression method used to determine factors explaining composite index generated from PCA. Stakeholder analysis was conducted to discern qualitative information. Myriad of techniques like observations, key informant interviews and focus group discussions using semi structured questionnaires on both leaders and laggards were administered for critical stakeholder’s analysis. Results: General readiness score of health facilities was found to be 0.48. Results indicated poorest readiness for subcentres and PHC’s (first point of contact) with composite score of 0.47 and 0.41 respectively. For primary care facilities; principal component was characterized by basic newborn care as well as preparedness for delivery. Results revealed availability of equipment and surgical preparedness having lowest score (0.46 and 0.47) for facilities providing secondary care. Presence of contractual staff, more than 1 hr walk to facility, facilities in zone A (most vulnerable) to cross border shelling and facilities inaccessible due to snowfall and thick jungles was negatively associated with readiness index. Nonchalant staff attitude, unavailability of staff quarters, leakages and constraint in supply chain of drugs and consumables were other impediments identified. Conclusions/Policy Implications: It is pertinent to first strengthen primary care facilities in this setting. Complex dimensions such as geographic barriers, user and provider behavior is not under precinct of this methodology.

Keywords: effective coverage, principal component analysis, readiness index, universal health coverage

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