Search results for: symbolic exchange

Authors: Sherri Franklin-Guy

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Play activities have long been utilized to support the development of expressive language in young children. More specifically, stages of symbolic play, or pretend play, have served as indicators of levels of cognitive development, the foundation of language. This presentation will examine the relationship between symbolic play and language development in toddlers and preschoolers. Implications for clinicians and educators will be discussed.

Keywords: cognition, language development, pretend play, symbolic play

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Authors: Letizia Maria Drammis, Maria Antonella Brandimonte

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The idea that people use space representations to think about time and number received support from several lines of research. However, how these representations develop in children and then shape space-time and space-number mappings is still a debated issue. In the present study, 40 children (20 pre-schoolers and 20 elementary-school children) performed 4 main tasks, which required the use of more concrete (non-symbolic) or more abstract (symbolic) space-time and space-number associations. In the non-symbolic conditions, children were required to order pictures of everyday-life events occurring in a specific temporal order (Temporal sequences) and of quantities varying in numerosity (Numerical sequences). In the symbolic conditions, they were asked to perform the typical time-to-position and number-to-position tasks by mapping time-related words and numbers onto lines. Results showed that children performed reliably better in the non-symbolic Time conditions than the symbolic Time conditions, independently of age, whereas only pre-schoolers performed worse in the Number-to-position task (symbolic) as compared to the Numerical sequence (non-symbolic) task. In addition, only older children mapped time-related words onto space following the typical left-right orientation, pre-schoolers’ performance being somewhat mixed. In contrast, mapping numbers onto space showed a clear left-right orientation, independently of age. Overall, these results indicate a cross-domain difference in the way younger and older children process time and number, with time-related tasks being more difficult than number-related tasks only when space-time tasks require symbolic representations.

Keywords: space-time associations, space-number associations, orientation, children

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Authors: Ampai Muensit, Maniemai Thongyou, Patcharin Lapanun

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Teen mothers have been viewed as ‘a powerless’ facing numerous pressures including poverty, immaturity of motherhood, and especially social blame.This paper argues that, to endure as an agent, they keep struggling to overcome all difficulties in their everyday life by using certain symbols to negotiate the situations they encounter, and to obtain a social position without surrendering to the dominating socio-cultural structure. Guided by Bourdieu’s theory of practice, this study looks at how teen mothers use symbolic capital in their motherhood practices. Although motherhood practices can be found in different contexts with various types of capital utilization, this paper focuses on the use of symbolic capitals in teen mothers’ practices within the contexts of the community. The study employs a qualitative methodology; data was collected from 12 informants through life history, in-depth interview, observation and the content analytical method was employed for data analysis. The findings show that child and motherhood were key symbolic capitals in motherhood practices. Employing such capitals teen mothers can achieve an acceptance from community – particularly from the new community. These symbolic capitals were the important sources of teen mothers’ power to turn the tide by changing their status – from “the powerless” to be “the agent”. The use of symbolic capitals also related to habitus of teen mothers in better compromising for an appropriate social position.

Keywords: teen mother, motherhood practice, symbolic capital, community

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Authors: Tri Wijayanti Septiarini, Agus Maman Abadi, Muhammad Rifki Taufik

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The exchange rate of IDR/USD can be the indicator to analysis Indonesian economy. The exchange rate as a important factor because it has big effect in Indonesian economy overall. So, it needs the analysis data of exchange rate. There is decomposition data of exchange rate of IDR/USD to be frequency and time. It can help the government to monitor the Indonesian economy. This method is very effective to identify the case, have high accurate result and have simple structure. In this paper, data of exchange rate that used is weekly data from December 17, 2010 until November 11, 2014.

Keywords: the exchange rate, fuzzy mamdani, discrete wavelet transforms, fuzzy wavelet

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Authors: K. Umbleja, M. Ichino, H. Yaguchi

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In this paper, we propose a coloring method for multivariate data visualization by using parallel coordinates based on dissimilarity and tree structure information gathered during hierarchical clustering. The proposed method is an extension for proximity-based coloring that suffers from a few undesired side effects if hierarchical tree structure is not balanced tree. We describe the algorithm by assigning colors based on dissimilarity information, show the application of proposed method on three commonly used datasets, and compare the results with proximity-based coloring. We found our proposed method to be especially beneficial for symbolic data visualization where many individual objects have already been aggregated into a single symbolic object.

Keywords: data visualization, dissimilarity-based coloring, proximity-based coloring, symbolic data

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Authors: K. Umbleja, M. Ichino

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Symbolic data mining has been developed to analyze data in very large datasets. It is also useful in cases when entry specific details should remain hidden. Symbolic data mining is quickly gaining popularity as datasets in need of analyzing are becoming ever larger. One type of such symbolic data is a histogram, which enables to save huge amounts of information into a single variable with high-level of granularity. Other types of symbolic data can also be described in histograms, therefore making histogram a very important and general symbolic data type - a method developed for histograms - can also be applied to other types of symbolic data. Due to its complex structure, analyzing histograms is complicated. This paper proposes a method, which allows to compare two histogram-valued variables and therefore find a dissimilarity between two histograms. Proposed method uses the Ichino-Yaguchi dissimilarity measure for mixed feature-type data analysis as a base and develops a dissimilarity measure specifically for histogram data, which allows to compare histograms with different number of bins and bin widths (so called general histogram). Proposed dissimilarity measure is then used as a measure for clustering. Furthermore, linkage method based on weighted averages is proposed with the concept of cluster compactness to measure the quality of clustering. The method is then validated with application on real datasets. As a result, the proposed dissimilarity measure is found producing adequate and comparable results with general histograms without the loss of detail or need to transform the data.

Keywords: dissimilarity measure, hierarchical clustering, histograms, symbolic data analysis

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Authors: Edris Rawashdeh, I. Abu-Falahah, H. M. Jaradat

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The variable-coefficient non-linear dispersive wave equation is investigated with the aid of symbolic computation. By virtue of a newly developed simplified bilinear method, multi-soliton solutions for such an equation have been derived. Effects of the inhomogeneities of media and nonuniformities of boundaries, depicted by the variable coefficients, on the soliton behavior are discussed with the aid of the characteristic curve method and graphical analysis.

Keywords: dispersive wave equations, multiple soliton solution, Hirota Bilinear Method, symbolic computation

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Authors: N. Fusun Oyman Serteller

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In this paper, the techniques to solve time dependent electromagnetic wave propagation equations based on the Finite Difference Method (FDM) are proposed by comparing the results with Finite Element Method (FEM) in 2D while discussing some special simulation examples.  Here, 2D dynamical wave equations for lossy media, even with a constant source, are discussed for establishing symbolic manipulation of wave propagation problems. The main objective of this contribution is to introduce a comparative study of two suitable numerical methods and to show that both methods can be applied effectively and efficiently to all types of wave propagation problems, both linear and nonlinear cases, by using symbolic computation. However, the results show that the FDM is more appropriate for solving the nonlinear cases in the symbolic solution. Furthermore, some specific complex domain examples of the comparison of electromagnetic waves equations are considered. Calculations are performed through Mathematica software by making some useful contribution to the programme and leveraging symbolic evaluations of FEM and FDM.

Keywords: finite difference method, finite element method, linear-nonlinear PDEs, symbolic computation, wave propagation equations

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Authors: Yu Chen

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In line with existing philosophical approaches, this research proposes a conceptual model with an innovative spatial vision and aesthetic principles for Artificial Intelligence (AI) application in brand advertising. The model first identifies the major constituencies in contemporary advertising on three spatial levels—physical, psychological, and symbolic. The model further incorporates the relationships among AI, aesthetics, branding, and advertising and their interactions with the major actors in all spaces. It illustrates that AI may follow the aesthetic principles-- beauty, elegance, and simplicity-- to reinforce brand identity and consistency in advertising, to collaborate with stakeholders, and to satisfy different advertising objectives on each level. It proposes that, with aesthetic guidelines, AI may assist consumers to emerge into the physical, psychological, and symbolic advertising spaces and helps transcend the tangible advertising messages to meaningful brand symbols. Conceptually, the research illustrates that even though consumers’ engagement with brand mostly begins with physical advertising and later moves to psychological-symbolic, AI-assisted advertising should start with the understanding of brand symbolic-psychological and consumer aesthetic preferences before the physical design to better resonate. Limits of AI and future AI functions in advertising are discussed.

Keywords: AI, spatial, aesthetic, brand advertising

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Authors: R. Henry, H. Andriamboavonjy, J. B. Paulin, S. Drahy, R. Gourichon

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During past decade, Chinese monetary policy has been to maintain stability of exchange rate CNY/USD by creating parity between the two currencies. This policy, against market equilibrium, impacts the exchange rate in having low Yuan currency, and keeping attractiveness of Chinese industries. Using macroeconomic and statistic approach, the impact of such policy onto CNY/USD exchange rate is quantitatively determined. It is also pointed out how Chinese banks respect Basel III ratios, in particular the foreign exchange ratio. The main analysis is focusing on how Chinese banks will respect these ratios in the future.

Keywords: macroeconomics models, yuan floating exchange rate, basel iii, china banking system

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Authors: Manuel Alves, Angelica Reis, Armindo Lobo, Valdemar Leiras

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In industry 4.0, it is common to have a lot of sensor data. In this deluge of data, hints of possible problems are difficult to spot. The digital twin concept aims to help answer this problem, but it is mainly used as a monitoring tool to handle the visualisation of data. Failure detection is of paramount importance in any industry, and it consumes a lot of resources. Any improvement in this regard is of tangible value to the organisation. The aim of this paper is to add the ability to forecast test failures, curtailing detection times. To achieve this, several anomaly detection algorithms were compared with a symbolic regression approach. To this end, Isolation Forest, One-Class SVM and an auto-encoder have been explored. For the symbolic regression PySR library was used. The first results show that this approach is valid and can be added to the tools available in this context as a low resource anomaly detection method since, after training, the only requirement is the calculation of a polynomial, a useful feature in the digital twin context.

Keywords: anomaly detection, digital twin, industry 4.0, symbolic regression

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Authors: Felix Liedel

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The rise of artificial intelligence has numerous and far-reaching consequences. In addition to the obvious consequences for entire professions, the increasing interaction with chatbots also has a wide range of social consequences and implications. We are already increasingly used to interacting with digital chatbots, be it in virtual consulting situations, creative development processes or even in building personal or intimate virtual relationships. A media-theoretical classification of these phenomena has so far been difficult, partly because the interactive element in the exchange with artificial intelligence has undeniable similarities to human-to-human communication but is not identical to it. The proposed study, therefore, aims to reformulate the concept of symbolic interaction in the tradition of George Herbert Mead as symbolic interactivity in communication with chatbots. In particular, Mead's socio-psychological considerations will be brought into dialog with the specific conditions of digital media, the special dispositive situation of chatbots and the characteristics of artificial intelligence. One example that illustrates this particular communication situation with chatbots is so-called consensus fiction: In face-to-face communication, we use symbols on the assumption that they will be interpreted in the same or a similar way by the other person. When briefing a chatbot, it quickly becomes clear that this is by no means the case: only the bot's response shows whether the initial request corresponds to the sender's actual intention. This makes it clear that chatbots do not just respond to requests. Rather, they function equally as projection surfaces for their communication partners but also as distillations of generalized social attitudes. The personalities of the chatbot avatars result, on the one hand, from the way we behave towards them and, on the other, from the content we have learned in advance. Similarly, we interpret the response behavior of the chatbots and make it the subject of our own actions with them. In conversation with the virtual chatbot, we enter into a dialog with ourselves but also with the content that the chatbot has previously learned. In our exchanges with chatbots, we, therefore, interpret socially influenced signs and behave towards them in an individual way according to the conditions that the medium deems acceptable. This leads to the emergence of situationally determined digital identities that are in exchange with the real self but are not identical to it: In conversation with digital chatbots, we bring our own impulses, which are brought into permanent negotiation with a generalized social attitude by the chatbot. This also leads to numerous media-ethical follow-up questions. The proposed approach is a continuation of my dissertation on moral decision-making in so-called interactive films. In this dissertation, I attempted to develop a concept of symbolic interactivity based on Mead. Current developments in artificial intelligence are now opening up new areas of application.

Keywords: artificial intelligence, chatbot, media theory, symbolic interactivity

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Authors: Seung Yeon Son

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In today’s rapidly changing and increasingly complex environment, organizations have relied on their members’ positive attitude toward their employers. In particular, employees’ organizational commitment (primarily, the effective component) has been recognized as an essential component of organizational functioning and success. Hence, identifying the determinants of effective commitment is one of the most important research issues. This study tested the influence of leader-member exchange (LMX) and exchange ideology on employee’s effective commitment. In addition, the interactive effect of LMX and exchange ideology was examined. Data from 198 members of the Korean military supports each of the hypotheses. Lastly, implications for research and directions for future research are discussed.

Keywords: affective commitment, exchange ideology, leader-member exchange, commitment

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Authors: Karima Menad, Ahmed Feddag

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In this study, large crystals of the zeolite NaA were synthesized by hydrothermal way. By following this zeolite was used to recover two heavy metals that are allowing the most dangerous toxic, lead and cadmium. The synthesized zeolite was analyzed by XRD and SEM aims to verify its purity and its good morphology; after it was undergoing ion exchange operations by aqueous solution with lead and cadmium in two salts Pb(CH3COOH)2 and CdCl2 at different concentrations. The exchange was carried out under the effect of two temperatures (25 °C and 60 °C). The contents of Pb++, Cd++ and Na+ were analyzed by atomic absorption and the results are given in the form of exchange rates. At the end the samples are analyzed by XRD exchanged to confirm their conservation of their zeolite framework. It is found that the exchange rate increases with the increase of initial concentration and the best results are found for the temperature of 60 °C.

Keywords: exchange rate, ion exchange, LTA zeolite, zeolite NaA

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Authors: Victor Ademulegun Arijeniwa

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This is a sociolinguistic study of Olu Obafemi’s Naira Has No Gender as a microcosm of life experiences. The paper assesses how Olu Obafemi’s use of language in the dramatic world serves as both social relationships and symbolic order of communicative roadmap that are capable of yielding well expressed and richly articulated sociolinguistic implications. Being the interface between language and social institutions, sociolinguistics and its application is highly utilitarian in linguistics analysis, especially where the language of a text appears to be deeply tensed, such as found in dramatic texts. The aim of this paper has been (i) to assess the symbolic orderly presentation of form in Olu Obafemi’Naira Has No Gender; (ii) to find out the linguistic elements and textual organization that represent social relationships in Olu Obafemi’s Naira Has No Gender. Using qualitative research design in data generation with insights from John Gumperz Interactional Sociolinguistics Theory with particular reference to contextualization cues and miscommunication, the paper identifies the implication of the dramatic discourse on society.

Keywords: sociolinguistics, Microcosm, contextualisation, miscommunication variable, identity, symbolic order

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Authors: G. G. Kagramanov, E. N. Farnosova, Linn Maung Maung

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The technologies of ion exchange and nanofiltration can be used for treatment of wastewater containing copper and other heavy metal ions to decrease the environmental risks. Nanofiltration characteristics under water treatment of heavy metals have been studied. The influence of main technical process parameters - pressure, temperature, concentration and pH value of the initial solution on flux and rejection of nanofiltration membranes has been considered. And ion exchange capacities of resins in removal of heavy metal ions from wastewater have been determined.

Keywords: exchange capacity, heavy metals, ion exchange, membrane separation, nanofiltration

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Authors: Rudan Xue, Annika Moscati, Rehel Zeleke Kebede, Peter Johansson

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Successful buildings’ simulation and analysis inevitably require information exchange between multiple building information modeling (BIM) software. The BIM infor-mation exchange based on IFC is widely used. However, Industry Foundation Classifi-cation (IFC) files are not always reliable and information can get lost when using dif-ferent software for modeling and simulations. In this research, interviews with lighting simulation experts and a case study provided by a company producing lighting devices have been the research methods used to identify the necessary steps and data for suc-cessful information exchange between lighting simulation tools and authoring design tools. Model creation, information exchange, and model simulation have been identi-fied as key aspects for the success of information exchange. The paper concludes with recommendations for improved information exchange and more reliable simulations that take all the needed parameters into consideration.

Keywords: BIM, data exchange, interoperability issues, lighting simulations

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Authors: Akeel Noori Almulla Hwaish

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Architectural design is influenced by the actual thermal behaviour of building components, and this in turn depends not only on their steady and periodic thermal characteristics, but also on exposure effects, orientation, surface colour, and climatic fluctuations at the given location. Design data and environmental parameters should be produced in an accurate way for specified locations, so that architects and engineers can confidently apply them in their design calculations that enable precise evaluation of the influence of various parameters relating to each component of the envelope, which indicates overall thermal performance of building. The present paper will be carried out with an objective of thermal behaviour assessment and characteristics of the opaque and transparent parts of one of the very unique components used as a symbolic distinguished element of building envelope, its thermal behaviour under the impact of solar temperatures, and its role in heat exchange related to a specific U-value of specified construction materials alternatives. The research method will consider the specified Hot-Dry weather and new mosque in Baghdad, Iraq as a case study. Also, data will be presented in light of the criteria of indoor thermal comfort in terms of design parameters and thermal assessment for a“model dome”. Design alternatives and considerations of energy conservation, will be discussed as well using comparative computer simulations. Findings will be incorporated to outline the conclusions clarifying the important role of the dome in heat exchange of the whole building envelope for approaching an indoor thermal comfort level and further research in the future.

Keywords: building envelope, sustainable design, dome impact, hot-climates, heat exchange

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Authors: Saad Bin Nasir

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The study identifies the impact of inflation and foreign exchange rate on foreign direct investment in Pakistan. Inflation and exchange rates are used as independent variables and foreign direct investment is taken as dependent variable. Discreet time series data has been used from the period of 1999 to 2009. The results of regression analysis reveal that high inflation has negative impact on foreign direct investment and higher exchange rates has positive impact on foreign direct investment in Pakistan. The inflation and foreign exchange rates both are insignificant in the analysis.

Keywords: inflation rate, foreign exchange rate, foreign direct investment, foreign assets

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Authors: K. Menad, A. Faddeg

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Zeolites are a family of mineral compounds. With special properties that have led to several important industrial applications. Ion exchange has enabled the first industrial application in the field of water treatment. The exchange by aqueous pathway is the method most used in the case of such microporous materials and this technique will be used in this work. The objective of this work is to find performance materials for the recovery of heavy metals such as cadmium. The study is to compare the properties of different ion exchange zeolite Na-X, Na-A, their physical mixture and the composite A (LTA) / X (FAU). After the synthesis of various zeolites X and A, it was designed a model Core-Shell to form a composite zeolite A on zeolite X. Finally, ion exchange studies were performed on these zeolite materials. The cation is exclusively tested for cadmium, a toxic element and is harmful to health and the environment.

Keywords: zeolite A, zeolite X, ion exchange, water treatment

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Authors: Luyao Liu, Dekui Yuan, Xu Li

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As one of the most important bays of China, the water exchange capacity of Bohai Bay can influence the economic development and urbanization of surrounding cities. However, the rapid reclamation has influenced the weak water exchange capacity of this semi-enclosed bay in recent years. This paper sets two hydrodynamic models of Bohai Bay with two shorelines before and after reclamation. The mean value and distribution of Turn-over Time, the distribution of residual current, and the feature of the tracer path are compared. After comparison, it is found that Bohai Bay keeps these characteristics; the spending time of water exchange in the northern is longer than southern, and inshore is longer than offshore. However, the mean water exchange time becomes longer after reclamation. In addition, the material spreading is blocked because of the inwardly extending shorelines, and the direction changed from along the shoreline to towards the center after reclamation.

Keywords: Bohai Bay, water exchange, reclamation, turn-over time

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Authors: Tabassum Riaz

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This study provides a complete examination of the stock prices behavior in the Karachi stock exchange. It examines that whether Karachi stock exchange can be described as mean reversion or not. For this purpose daily, weekly and monthly index data from Karachi stock exchange ranging from period July 1, 1997 to July 2, 2011 was taken. After employing the Multiple variance ratio and unit root tests it is concluded that stock market follow mean reversion behavior and hence have reverting trend which opens the door for the active invest management. Thus technical analysis may be help to identify the potential areas for value creation.

Keywords: mean reversion, random walk, technical analysis, Karachi stock exchange

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Authors: W. Scott Jackson

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This paper explains the declension of Puritan clerical power following the Great Migration up until when Massachusetts lost its charter in 1684. Historian Perry Miller argued that an overall declension in Puritan culture occurred during this period. However, that notion has been dispelled. There is a resurging field exploring declension in areas outside of Miller’s scope of Puritan culture. I determine that colonial New England existed as a functional theocracy by using Pierre Bourdieu’s theory of symbolic capital to explain clerical power through symbolic and religious misdirection and conversion. I explore civil and economic power struggles in colonial New England during the decades following the Great Migration to establish that Puritan culture did not largely decline. Instead, it was the Puritan clergy’s power that waned during this period.

Keywords: Bourdieu, Historical Sociology, Symbolic Capital, Puritan

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Authors: Davit Shahnazaryan, Diogo Gomes, Mher Safaryan

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Many symbolic computations and manipulations required in the analysis of partial differential equations (PDE) or systems of PDEs are tedious and error-prone. These computations arise when determining conservation laws, entropies or integral identities, which are essential tools for the study of PDEs. Here, we discuss a new Mathematica package for the symbolic analysis of PDEs that automate multiple tasks, saving time and effort. Methodologies: During the research, we have used concepts of linear algebra and partial differential equations. We have been working on creating algorithms based on theoretical mathematics to find results mentioned below. Major Findings: Our package provides the following functionalities; finding symmetry group of different PDE systems, generation of polynomials invariant with respect to different symmetry groups; simplification of integral quantities by integration by parts and null Lagrangian cleaning, computing general forms of expressions by integration by parts; finding equivalent forms of an integral expression that are simpler or more symmetric form; determining necessary and sufficient conditions on the coefficients for the positivity of a given symbolic expression. Conclusion: Using this package, we can simplify integral identities, find conserved and dissipated quantities of time-dependent PDE or system of PDEs. Some examples in the theory of mean-field games and semiconductor equations are discussed.

Keywords: partial differential equations, symbolic computation, conserved and dissipated quantities, mathematica

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Authors: Mourad Zmami Oussema BenSalha

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The current research aims to assess empirically the reaction of private investment to exchange rate fluctuations in Tunisia using a sample of 548 firms operating in manufacturing industries between 1997 and 2002. The micro-econometric model we estimate is based on an accelerator-profit specification investment model increased by two variables that measure the variation and the volatility of exchange rates. Estimates using the system the GMM method reveal that the effects of the exchange rate depreciation on investment are negative since it increases the cost of imported capital goods. Turning to the exchange rate volatility, as measured by the GARCH (1,1) model, our findings assign a significant role to the exchange rate uncertainty in explaining the sluggishness of private investment in Tunisia in the full sample of firms. Other estimation attempts based on various sub samples indicate that the elasticities of investment relative to the exchange rate volatility depend upon many firms’ specific characteristics such as the size and the ownership structure.

Keywords: investment, exchange rate volatility, manufacturing firms, system GMM, Tunisia

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Authors: Sayed Ahmed

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Religious activities that have evolved the sacred into a dynamic cultural phenomenon in the public realm of Sylhet, Bangladesh, and the spatiality of sacred sites and everyday practices in certain built forms have framed these phenomena. Religious rituals in Sylhet gave birth to unique practices of their own and have a vast impact even on contemporary spatial practices, while most Western researchers are not hopeful about the future of religion. However, despite extensive research on urban morphology and religion separately, there is limited literature on the relationship between these two topics to capture religious perceptions and experiences in urban spaces. This research will try to fill the existing gap and explain sacred within the range of Western sociological and philosophical tools implemented in third-world contexts, which was never highlighted before. This perspective of research puts forth the argument that urban morphology influences sacred experiences and how consecrated entities and religious activities shape the city's structure in return. The methodology of the research will map key morphological and religious variables. This mapping might include festival trajectories, street life observations, pedestrian densities, religious activities, public and private interface types with religious commodification, and the identification of blurred boundaries between sacred and profane on smaller to broader urban scales. To relate the derived cartography, illustrative (not representative) interviews about religious signs and symbols will be conducted and compared accordingly. The possible findings might reintroduce the diversity of religious practices in urban places and develop a decent concept of how sacred and urban morphology are mutually reinforcing the city, which has remained a vital nutrient for the survival of its inhabitants. Such infrequent conceptualizations of urban morphology and its relationship to symbolic sacralization are truly ‘outside’ to those that exist in the West.

Keywords: sylhet, religion, urban morphology, symbolic exchange, Baudrillard

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Authors: Zahid Ahmad, Nosheen Imran, Nauman Ali, Farah Amir

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The objective of the study is to forecast the US Dollar and Pak Rupee exchange rate by using time series models. For this purpose, daily exchange rates of US and Pakistan for the period of January 01, 2007 - June 2, 2017, are employed. The data set is divided into in sample and out of sample data set where in-sample data are used to estimate as well as forecast the models, whereas out-of-sample data set is exercised to forecast the exchange rate. The ADF test and PP test are used to make the time series stationary. To forecast the exchange rate ARIMA model and GARCH model are applied. Among the different Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) models best model is selected on the basis of selection criteria. Due to the volatility clustering and ARCH effect the GARCH (1, 1) is also applied. Results of analysis showed that ARIMA (0, 1, 1 ) and GARCH (1, 1) are the most suitable models to forecast the future exchange rate. Further the GARCH (1,1) model provided the volatility with non-constant conditional variance in the exchange rate with good forecasting performance. This study is very useful for researchers, policymakers, and businesses for making decisions through accurate and timely forecasting of the exchange rate and helps them in devising their policies.

Keywords: exchange rate, ARIMA, GARCH, PAK/USD

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Authors: Siphat Lim

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The result of the study revealed that the interaction between money, exchange rate, and price level was mainly derived from the policy-induced by the central bank. Furthermore, the variation of inflation was explained weakly by exchange rate and money supply. In the period of twelfth-month, the variation of inflation which caused by exchange rate and money supply were not more than 1.78 percent and 9.77 percent, respectively.

Keywords: money supply, exchange rate, price level, VAR model

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Authors: Wong Hock Tsen

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This study aims to investigate the impact of exchange rate volatility on real export in Malaysia. The moving standard deviation with order three (MSD(3)) is used for the measurement of exchange rate volatility. The conventional and partially asymmetric autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) models are used in the estimations. This study finds exchange rate volatility to have significant impact on real total export and some sub-categories of real total export. Moreover, this study finds that the positive or negative exchange rate volatility tends to have positive or negative impact on real export. Exchange rate volatility can be harmful to export of Malaysia.

Keywords: exchange rate volatility, autoregressive distributed lag, export, Malaysia

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Authors: Ifeoma Patricia Osamor, Ayotunde Qudus Saka, Godwin Omoregbee, Hikmat Oreoluwalomo Omolaja

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Persistent fall in the value of Nigeria's currency compared to other foreign currencies, constant fluctuations in the exchange rate, and an increase in the price of goods and services necessitated the examination of the effects of exchange rate fluctuations on the economic performance of the manufacturing sector in Nigeria. An ex-post facto research design was adopted. Manufacturing gross domestic product (MGDP) was proxied for performance; Naira/Dollar exchange rate (NDE), Naira/Pounds exchange rate (NPE), Foreign exchange supply (FES) were used for exchange rate fluctuations; and inflation rate (INF) was a control variable. Data were collected from CBN Statistical Bulletin (2020) also World Development Indicators of the World Bank, while data collected were analysed using descriptive analysis, unit root, bounds cointegration test, and ARDL. Findings showed that changes in Naira/Dollar exchange rate (NDE) and Naira/Pound Sterling exchange rate negatively but significantly impact the economic performance of the manufacturing sector, while foreign exchange supply leads to an insignificant positive effect on the economic performance of the manufacturing. The study concludes that exchange rate fluctuations negatively impact the performance of the manufacturing sector in Nigeria and, therefore, recommends that government should encourage export diversification through agriculture, agro-investment, and agro-allied industries that would boost export in order to improve the value of the Naira, thereby stabilizing the exchange rate.

Keywords: exchange rate, economic performance, gross domestic product, inflation rate, foreign exchange supply

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