Search results for: substitutional inference
Commenced in January 2007
Frequency: Monthly
Edition: International
Paper Count: 317

Search results for: substitutional inference

287 Application of Adaptive Neuro Fuzzy Inference Systems Technique for Modeling of Postweld Heat Treatment Process of Pressure Vessel Steel AASTM A516 Grade 70

Authors: Omar Al Denali, Abdelaziz Badi

Abstract:

The ASTM A516 Grade 70 steel is a suitable material used for the fabrication of boiler pressure vessels working in moderate and lower temperature services, and it has good weldability and excellent notch toughness. The post-weld heat treatment (PWHT) or stress-relieving heat treatment has significant effects on avoiding the martensite transformation and resulting in high hardness, which can lead to cracking in the heat-affected zone (HAZ). An adaptive neuro-fuzzy inference system (ANFIS) was implemented to predict the material tensile strength of post-weld heat treatment (PWHT) experiments. The ANFIS models presented excellent predictions, and the comparison was carried out based on the mean absolute percentage error between the predicted values and the experimental values. The ANFIS model gave a Mean Absolute Percentage Error of 0.556 %, which confirms the high accuracy of the model.

Keywords: prediction, post-weld heat treatment, adaptive neuro-fuzzy inference system, mean absolute percentage error

Procedia PDF Downloads 118
286 Risk Assessment of Natural Gas Pipelines in Coal Mined Gobs Based on Bow-Tie Model and Cloud Inference

Authors: Xiaobin Liang, Wei Liang, Laibin Zhang, Xiaoyan Guo

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Pipelines pass through coal mined gobs inevitably in the mining area, the stability of which has great influence on the safety of pipelines. After extensive literature study and field research, it was found that there are a few risk assessment methods for coal mined gob pipelines, and there is a lack of data on the gob sites. Therefore, the fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method is widely used based on expert opinions. However, the subjective opinions or lack of experience of individual experts may lead to inaccurate evaluation results. Hence the accuracy of the results needs to be further improved. This paper presents a comprehensive approach to achieve this purpose by combining bow-tie model and cloud inference. The specific evaluation process is as follows: First, a bow-tie model composed of a fault tree and an event tree is established to graphically illustrate the probability and consequence indicators of pipeline failure. Second, the interval estimation method can be scored in the form of intervals to improve the accuracy of the results, and the censored mean algorithm is used to remove the maximum and minimum values of the score to improve the stability of the results. The golden section method is used to determine the weight of the indicators and reduce the subjectivity of index weights. Third, the failure probability and failure consequence scores of the pipeline are converted into three numerical features by using cloud inference. The cloud inference can better describe the ambiguity and volatility of the results which can better describe the volatility of the risk level. Finally, the cloud drop graphs of failure probability and failure consequences can be expressed, which intuitively and accurately illustrate the ambiguity and randomness of the results. A case study of a coal mine gob pipeline carrying natural gas has been investigated to validate the utility of the proposed method. The evaluation results of this case show that the probability of failure of the pipeline is very low, the consequences of failure are more serious, which is consistent with the reality.

Keywords: bow-tie model, natural gas pipeline, coal mine gob, cloud inference

Procedia PDF Downloads 221
285 Prediction of Compressive Strength in Geopolymer Composites by Adaptive Neuro Fuzzy Inference System

Authors: Mehrzad Mohabbi Yadollahi, Ramazan Demirboğa, Majid Atashafrazeh

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Geopolymers are highly complex materials which involve many variables which makes modeling its properties very difficult. There is no systematic approach in mix design for Geopolymers. Since the amounts of silica modulus, Na2O content, w/b ratios and curing time have a great influence on the compressive strength an ANFIS (Adaptive neuro fuzzy inference system) method has been established for predicting compressive strength of ground pumice based Geopolymers and the possibilities of ANFIS for predicting the compressive strength has been studied. Consequently, ANFIS can be used for geopolymer compressive strength prediction with acceptable accuracy.

Keywords: geopolymer, ANFIS, compressive strength, mix design

Procedia PDF Downloads 806
284 Fuzzy Inference System for Determining Collision Risk of Ship in Madura Strait Using Automatic Identification System

Authors: Emmy Pratiwi, Ketut B. Artana, A. A. B. Dinariyana

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Madura Strait is considered as one of the busiest shipping channels in Indonesia. High vessel traffic density in Madura Strait gives serious threat due to navigational safety in this area, i.e. ship collision. This study is necessary as an attempt to enhance the safety of marine traffic. Fuzzy inference system (FIS) is proposed to calculate risk collision of ships. Collision risk is evaluated based on ship domain, Distance to Closest Point of Approach (DCPA), and Time to Closest Point of Approach (TCPA). Data were collected by utilizing Automatic Identification System (AIS). This study considers several ships’ domain models to give the characteristic of marine traffic in the waterways. Each encounter in the ship domain is analyzed to obtain the level of collision risk. Risk level of ships, as the result in this study, can be used as guidance to avoid the accident, providing brief description about safety traffic in Madura Strait and improving the navigational safety in the area.

Keywords: automatic identification system, collision risk, DCPA, fuzzy inference system, TCPA

Procedia PDF Downloads 517
283 Optimizing Communications Overhead in Heterogeneous Distributed Data Streams

Authors: Rashi Bhalla, Russel Pears, M. Asif Naeem

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In this 'Information Explosion Era' analyzing data 'a critical commodity' and mining knowledge from vertically distributed data stream incurs huge communication cost. However, an effort to decrease the communication in the distributed environment has an adverse influence on the classification accuracy; therefore, a research challenge lies in maintaining a balance between transmission cost and accuracy. This paper proposes a method based on Bayesian inference to reduce the communication volume in a heterogeneous distributed environment while retaining prediction accuracy. Our experimental evaluation reveals that a significant reduction in communication can be achieved across a diverse range of dataset types.

Keywords: big data, bayesian inference, distributed data stream mining, heterogeneous-distributed data

Procedia PDF Downloads 128
282 Bayesian Parameter Inference for Continuous Time Markov Chains with Intractable Likelihood

Authors: Randa Alharbi, Vladislav Vyshemirsky

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Systems biology is an important field in science which focuses on studying behaviour of biological systems. Modelling is required to produce detailed description of the elements of a biological system, their function, and their interactions. A well-designed model requires selecting a suitable mechanism which can capture the main features of the system, define the essential components of the system and represent an appropriate law that can define the interactions between its components. Complex biological systems exhibit stochastic behaviour. Thus, using probabilistic models are suitable to describe and analyse biological systems. Continuous-Time Markov Chain (CTMC) is one of the probabilistic models that describe the system as a set of discrete states with continuous time transitions between them. The system is then characterised by a set of probability distributions that describe the transition from one state to another at a given time. The evolution of these probabilities through time can be obtained by chemical master equation which is analytically intractable but it can be simulated. Uncertain parameters of such a model can be inferred using methods of Bayesian inference. Yet, inference in such a complex system is challenging as it requires the evaluation of the likelihood which is intractable in most cases. There are different statistical methods that allow simulating from the model despite intractability of the likelihood. Approximate Bayesian computation is a common approach for tackling inference which relies on simulation of the model to approximate the intractable likelihood. Particle Markov chain Monte Carlo (PMCMC) is another approach which is based on using sequential Monte Carlo to estimate intractable likelihood. However, both methods are computationally expensive. In this paper we discuss the efficiency and possible practical issues for each method, taking into account the computational time for these methods. We demonstrate likelihood-free inference by performing analysing a model of the Repressilator using both methods. Detailed investigation is performed to quantify the difference between these methods in terms of efficiency and computational cost.

Keywords: Approximate Bayesian computation(ABC), Continuous-Time Markov Chains, Sequential Monte Carlo, Particle Markov chain Monte Carlo (PMCMC)

Procedia PDF Downloads 179
281 A Methodology of Using Fuzzy Logics and Data Analytics to Estimate the Life Cycle Indicators of Solar Photovoltaics

Authors: Thor Alexis Sazon, Alexander Guzman-Urbina, Yasuhiro Fukushima

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This study outlines the method of how to develop a surrogate life cycle model based on fuzzy logic using three fuzzy inference methods: (1) the conventional Fuzzy Inference System (FIS), (2) the hybrid system of Data Analytics and Fuzzy Inference (DAFIS), which uses data clustering for defining the membership functions, and (3) the Adaptive-Neuro Fuzzy Inference System (ANFIS), a combination of fuzzy inference and artificial neural network. These methods were demonstrated with a case study where the Global Warming Potential (GWP) and the Levelized Cost of Energy (LCOE) of solar photovoltaic (PV) were estimated using Solar Irradiation, Module Efficiency, and Performance Ratio as inputs. The effects of using different fuzzy inference types, either Sugeno- or Mamdani-type, and of changing the number of input membership functions to the error between the calibration data and the model-generated outputs were also illustrated. The solution spaces of the three methods were consequently examined with a sensitivity analysis. ANFIS exhibited the lowest error while DAFIS gave slightly lower errors compared to FIS. Increasing the number of input membership functions helped with error reduction in some cases but, at times, resulted in the opposite. Sugeno-type models gave errors that are slightly lower than those of the Mamdani-type. While ANFIS is superior in terms of error minimization, it could generate solutions that are questionable, i.e. the negative GWP values of the Solar PV system when the inputs were all at the upper end of their range. This shows that the applicability of the ANFIS models highly depends on the range of cases at which it was calibrated. FIS and DAFIS generated more intuitive trends in the sensitivity runs. DAFIS demonstrated an optimal design point wherein increasing the input values does not improve the GWP and LCOE anymore. In the absence of data that could be used for calibration, conventional FIS presents a knowledge-based model that could be used for prediction. In the PV case study, conventional FIS generated errors that are just slightly higher than those of DAFIS. The inherent complexity of a Life Cycle study often hinders its widespread use in the industry and policy-making sectors. While the methodology does not guarantee a more accurate result compared to those generated by the Life Cycle Methodology, it does provide a relatively simpler way of generating knowledge- and data-based estimates that could be used during the initial design of a system.

Keywords: solar photovoltaic, fuzzy logic, inference system, artificial neural networks

Procedia PDF Downloads 129
280 Applying of an Adaptive Neuro-Fuzzy Inference System (ANFIS) for Estimation of Flood Hydrographs

Authors: Amir Ahmad Dehghani, Morteza Nabizadeh

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This paper presents the application of an Adaptive Neuro-Fuzzy Inference System (ANFIS) to flood hydrograph modeling of Shahid Rajaee reservoir dam located in Iran. This was carried out using 11 flood hydrographs recorded in Tajan river gauging station. From this dataset, 9 flood hydrographs were chosen to train the model and 2 flood hydrographs to test the model. The different architectures of neuro-fuzzy model according to the membership function and learning algorithm were designed and trained with different epochs. The results were evaluated in comparison with the observed hydrographs and the best structure of model was chosen according the least RMSE in each performance. To evaluate the efficiency of neuro-fuzzy model, various statistical indices such as Nash-Sutcliff and flood peak discharge error criteria were calculated. In this simulation, the coordinates of a flood hydrograph including peak discharge were estimated using the discharge values occurred in the earlier time steps as input values to the neuro-fuzzy model. These results indicate the satisfactory efficiency of neuro-fuzzy model for flood simulating. This performance of the model demonstrates the suitability of the implemented approach to flood management projects.

Keywords: adaptive neuro-fuzzy inference system, flood hydrograph, hybrid learning algorithm, Shahid Rajaee reservoir dam

Procedia PDF Downloads 451
279 Generalized Mean-Field Theory of Phase Unwrapping via Multiple Interferograms

Authors: Yohei Saika

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On the basis of Bayesian inference using the maximizer of the posterior marginal estimate, we carry out phase unwrapping using multiple interferograms via generalized mean-field theory. Numerical calculations for a typical wave-front in remote sensing using the synthetic aperture radar interferometry, phase diagram in hyper-parameter space clarifies that the present method succeeds in phase unwrapping perfectly under the constraint of surface- consistency condition, if the interferograms are not corrupted by any noises. Also, we find that prior is useful for extending a phase in which phase unwrapping under the constraint of the surface-consistency condition. These results are quantitatively confirmed by the Monte Carlo simulation.

Keywords: Bayesian inference, generalized mean-field theory, phase unwrapping, multiple interferograms, statistical mechanics

Procedia PDF Downloads 453
278 Application of Neuro-Fuzzy Technique for Optimizing the PVC Membrane Sensor

Authors: Majid Rezayi, Sh. Shahaboddin, HNM E. Mahmud, A. Yadollah, A. Saeid, A. Yatimah

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In this study, the adaptive neuro-fuzzy inference system (ANFIS) was applied to obtain the membrane composition model affecting the potential response of our reported polymeric PVC sensor for determining the titanium (III) ions. The performance statistics of the artificial neural network (ANN) and linear regression models for potential slope prediction of membrane composition of titanium (III) ion selective electrode were compared with ANFIS technique. The results show that the ANFIS model can be used as a practical tool for obtaining the Nerntian slope of the proposed sensor in this study.

Keywords: adaptive neuro fuzzy inference, PVC sensor, titanium (III) ions, Nerntian slope

Procedia PDF Downloads 251
277 Non-Linear Causality Inference Using BAMLSS and Bi-CAM in Finance

Authors: Flora Babongo, Valerie Chavez

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Inferring causality from observational data is one of the fundamental subjects, especially in quantitative finance. So far most of the papers analyze additive noise models with either linearity, nonlinearity or Gaussian noise. We fill in the gap by providing a nonlinear and non-gaussian causal multiplicative noise model that aims to distinguish the cause from the effect using a two steps method based on Bayesian additive models for location, scale and shape (BAMLSS) and on causal additive models (CAM). We have tested our method on simulated and real data and we reached an accuracy of 0.86 on average. As real data, we considered the causality between financial indices such as S&P 500, Nasdaq, CAC 40 and Nikkei, and companies' log-returns. Our results can be useful in inferring causality when the data is heteroskedastic or non-injective.

Keywords: causal inference, DAGs, BAMLSS, financial index

Procedia PDF Downloads 126
276 An Integrated Fuzzy Inference System and Technique for Order of Preference by Similarity to Ideal Solution Approach for Evaluation of Lean Healthcare Systems

Authors: Aydin M. Torkabadi, Ehsan Pourjavad

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A decade after the introduction of Lean in Saskatchewan’s public healthcare system, its effectiveness remains a controversial subject among health researchers, workers, managers, and politicians. Therefore, developing a framework to quantitatively assess the Lean achievements is significant. This study investigates the success of initiatives across Saskatchewan health regions by recognizing the Lean healthcare criteria, measuring the success levels, comparing the regions, and identifying the areas for improvements. This study proposes an integrated intelligent computing approach by applying Fuzzy Inference System (FIS) and Technique for Order of Preference by Similarity to Ideal Solution (TOPSIS). FIS is used as an efficient approach to assess the Lean healthcare criteria, and TOPSIS is applied for ranking the values in regards to the level of leanness. Due to the innate uncertainty in decision maker judgments on criteria, principals of the fuzzy theory are applied. Finally, FIS-TOPSIS was established as an efficient technique in determining the lean merit in healthcare systems.

Keywords: lean healthcare, intelligent computing, fuzzy inference system, healthcare evaluation, technique for order of preference by similarity to ideal solution, multi-criteria decision making, MCDM

Procedia PDF Downloads 135
275 A Mixed Thought Pattern and the Question of Justification: A Feminist Project

Authors: Angana Chatterjee

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The feminist scholars point out the various problematic issues in the traditional mainstream western thought and theories. The thought practices behind the discriminatory and oppressive social practices are based on concepts that play a pivotal role in theorisation. Therefore, many feminist philosophers take up reformation or reconceptualisation projects. Such projects have bearings on various aspects of philosophical thought, namely, ontology, epistemology, logic, ethics, social, political thought, and so on. In tune with this spirit, the present paper suggests a well-established thought pattern which is not western but has got the potential to deal with the problems of mainstream western thought culture that are identified by the feminist critics. The Indian thought pattern is theorised in the domain of Indian logic, which is a study of inference patterns. As, in the Indian context, the inference is considered as a source of knowledge, certain epistemological questions are linked with the discussion of inference. One of the key epistemological issues is one regarding justification. The study about the nature of derivation of knowledge from available evidence, and the nature of the evidence itself, are integral parts of the discipline called Indian logic. But if we contrast the western tradition of thought with the Indian one, we can find that the Indian logic has got some peculiar features which may be shown to deal with the problems identified by the feminist scholars in western thought culture more plausibly. The tradition of western logic, starting from Aristotle, has been maintaining sharp differences between two forms of reasoning, namely, deductive and inductive. These two different forms of reasoning have been theorised and dealt with separately within the domain of the study called ‘logic.’ There are various philosophical problems that are raised around concepts and issues regarding both deductive and inductive reasoning. Indian logic does not distinguish between deduction and induction as thought patterns, but their distinction is very usual to make in the western tradition. Though there can be found various interpretations about this peculiarity of Indian thought pattern, these mixed patterns were actually very close to the cross-cultural pattern in which human beings would tend to argue or infer from the available data or evidence. The feminist theories can successfully operate in the domain of lived experience if they make use of such a mixed pattern of reasoning or inference. By offering sound inferential knowledge on contextual evidences, the Indian thought pattern is potent to serve the feminist purposes in a meaningful way.

Keywords: feminist thought, Indian logic, inference, justification, mixed thought pattern

Procedia PDF Downloads 72
274 Effective Supply Chain Coordination with Hybrid Demand Forecasting Techniques

Authors: Gurmail Singh

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Effective supply chain is the main priority of every organization which is the outcome of strategic corporate investments with deliberate management action. Value-driven supply chain is defined through development, procurement and by configuring the appropriate resources, metrics and processes. However, responsiveness of the supply chain can be improved by proper coordination. So the Bullwhip effect (BWE) and Net stock amplification (NSAmp) values were anticipated and used for the control of inventory in organizations by both discrete wavelet transform-Artificial neural network (DWT-ANN) and Adaptive Network-based fuzzy inference system (ANFIS). This work presents a comparative methodology of forecasting for the customers demand which is non linear in nature for a multilevel supply chain structure using hybrid techniques such as Artificial intelligence techniques including Artificial neural networks (ANN) and Adaptive Network-based fuzzy inference system (ANFIS) and Discrete wavelet theory (DWT). The productiveness of these forecasting models are shown by computing the data from real world problems for Bullwhip effect and Net stock amplification. The results showed that these parameters were comparatively less in case of discrete wavelet transform-Artificial neural network (DWT-ANN) model and using Adaptive network-based fuzzy inference system (ANFIS).

Keywords: bullwhip effect, hybrid techniques, net stock amplification, supply chain flexibility

Procedia PDF Downloads 97
273 Analyzing the Practicality of Drawing Inferences in Automation of Commonsense Reasoning

Authors: Chandan Hegde, K. Ashwini

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Commonsense reasoning is the simulation of human ability to make decisions during the situations that we encounter every day. It has been several decades since the introduction of this subfield of artificial intelligence, but it has barely made some significant progress. The modern computing aids also have remained impotent in this regard due to the absence of a strong methodology towards commonsense reasoning development. Among several accountable reasons for the lack of progress, drawing inference out of commonsense knowledge-base stands out. This review paper emphasizes on a detailed analysis of representation of reasoning uncertainties and feasible prospects of programming aids for drawing inferences. Also, the difficulties in deducing and systematizing commonsense reasoning and the substantial progress made in reasoning that influences the study have been discussed. Additionally, the paper discusses the possible impacts of an effective inference technique in commonsense reasoning.

Keywords: artificial intelligence, commonsense reasoning, knowledge base, uncertainty in reasoning

Procedia PDF Downloads 158
272 Probabilistic Approach of Dealing with Uncertainties in Distributed Constraint Optimization Problems and Situation Awareness for Multi-agent Systems

Authors: Sagir M. Yusuf, Chris Baber

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In this paper, we describe how Bayesian inferential reasoning will contributes in obtaining a well-satisfied prediction for Distributed Constraint Optimization Problems (DCOPs) with uncertainties. We also demonstrate how DCOPs could be merged to multi-agent knowledge understand and prediction (i.e. Situation Awareness). The DCOPs functions were merged with Bayesian Belief Network (BBN) in the form of situation, awareness, and utility nodes. We describe how the uncertainties can be represented to the BBN and make an effective prediction using the expectation-maximization algorithm or conjugate gradient descent algorithm. The idea of variable prediction using Bayesian inference may reduce the number of variables in agents’ sampling domain and also allow missing variables estimations. Experiment results proved that the BBN perform compelling predictions with samples containing uncertainties than the perfect samples. That is, Bayesian inference can help in handling uncertainties and dynamism of DCOPs, which is the current issue in the DCOPs community. We show how Bayesian inference could be formalized with Distributed Situation Awareness (DSA) using uncertain and missing agents’ data. The whole framework was tested on multi-UAV mission for forest fire searching. Future work focuses on augmenting existing architecture to deal with dynamic DCOPs algorithms and multi-agent information merging.

Keywords: DCOP, multi-agent reasoning, Bayesian reasoning, swarm intelligence

Procedia PDF Downloads 92
271 Anticipation of Bending Reinforcement Based on Iranian Concrete Code Using Meta-Heuristic Tools

Authors: Seyed Sadegh Naseralavi, Najmeh Bemani

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In this paper, different concrete codes including America, New Zealand, Mexico, Italy, India, Canada, Hong Kong, Euro Code and Britain are compared with the Iranian concrete design code. First, by using Adaptive Neuro Fuzzy Inference System (ANFIS), the codes having the most correlation with the Iranian ninth issue of the national regulation are determined. Consequently, two anticipated methods are used for comparing the codes: Artificial Neural Network (ANN) and Multi-variable regression. The results show that ANN performs better. Predicting is done by using only tensile steel ratio and with ignoring the compression steel ratio.

Keywords: adaptive neuro fuzzy inference system, anticipate method, artificial neural network, concrete design code, multi-variable regression

Procedia PDF Downloads 246
270 Modeling of Age Hardening Process Using Adaptive Neuro-Fuzzy Inference System: Results from Aluminum Alloy A356/Cow Horn Particulate Composite

Authors: Chidozie C. Nwobi-Okoye, Basil Q. Ochieze, Stanley Okiy

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This research reports on the modeling of age hardening process using adaptive neuro-fuzzy inference system (ANFIS). The age hardening output (Hardness) was predicted using ANFIS. The input parameters were ageing time, temperature and percentage composition of cow horn particles (CHp%). The results show the correlation coefficient (R) of the predicted hardness values versus the measured values was of 0.9985. Subsequently, values outside the experimental data points were predicted. When the temperature was kept constant, and other input parameters were varied, the average relative error of the predicted values was 0.0931%. When the temperature was varied, and other input parameters kept constant, the average relative error of the hardness values predictions was 80%. The results show that ANFIS with coarse experimental data points for learning is not very effective in predicting process outputs in the age hardening operation of A356 alloy/CHp particulate composite. The fine experimental data requirements by ANFIS make it more expensive in modeling and optimization of age hardening operations of A356 alloy/CHp particulate composite.

Keywords: adaptive neuro-fuzzy inference system (ANFIS), age hardening, aluminum alloy, metal matrix composite

Procedia PDF Downloads 121
269 Mathematical Modeling for Diabetes Prediction: A Neuro-Fuzzy Approach

Authors: Vijay Kr. Yadav, Nilam Rathi

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Accurate prediction of glucose level for diabetes mellitus is required to avoid affecting the functioning of major organs of human body. This study describes the fundamental assumptions and two different methodologies of the Blood glucose prediction. First is based on the back-propagation algorithm of Artificial Neural Network (ANN), and second is based on the Neuro-Fuzzy technique, called Fuzzy Inference System (FIS). Errors between proposed methods further discussed through various statistical methods such as mean square error (MSE), normalised mean absolute error (NMAE). The main objective of present study is to develop mathematical model for blood glucose prediction before 12 hours advanced using data set of three patients for 60 days. The comparative studies of the accuracy with other existing models are also made with same data set.

Keywords: back-propagation, diabetes mellitus, fuzzy inference system, neuro-fuzzy

Procedia PDF Downloads 228
268 Identification of Bayesian Network with Convolutional Neural Network

Authors: Mohamed Raouf Benmakrelouf, Wafa Karouche, Joseph Rynkiewicz

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In this paper, we propose an alternative method to construct a Bayesian Network (BN). This method relies on a convolutional neural network (CNN classifier), which determinates the edges of the network skeleton. We train a CNN on a normalized empirical probability density distribution (NEPDF) for predicting causal interactions and relationships. We have to find the optimal Bayesian network structure for causal inference. Indeed, we are undertaking a search for pair-wise causality, depending on considered causal assumptions. In order to avoid unreasonable causal structure, we consider a blacklist and a whitelist of causality senses. We tested the method on real data to assess the influence of education on the voting intention for the extreme right-wing party. We show that, with this method, we get a safer causal structure of variables (Bayesian Network) and make to identify a variable that satisfies the backdoor criterion.

Keywords: Bayesian network, structure learning, optimal search, convolutional neural network, causal inference

Procedia PDF Downloads 142
267 Diagnosis of the Lubrification System of a Gas Turbine Using the Adaptive Neuro-Fuzzy Inference System

Authors: H. Mahdjoub, B. Hamaidi, B. Zerouali, S. Rouabhia

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The issue of fault detection and diagnosis (FDD) has gained widespread industrial interest in process condition monitoring applications. Accordingly, the use of neuro-fuzzy technic seems very promising. This paper treats a diagnosis modeling a strategic equipment of an industrial installation. We propose a diagnostic tool based on adaptive neuro-fuzzy inference system (ANFIS). The neuro-fuzzy network provides an abductive diagnosis. Moreover, it takes into account the uncertainties on the maintenance knowledge by giving a fuzzy characterization of each cause. This work was carried out with real data of a lubrication circuit from the gas turbine. The machine of interest is a gas turbine placed in a gas compressor station at South Industrial Centre (SIC Hassi Messaoud Ouargla, Algeria). We have defined the zones of good and bad functioning, and the results are presented to demonstrate the advantages of the proposed method.

Keywords: fault detection and diagnosis, lubrication system, turbine, ANFIS, training, pattern recognition

Procedia PDF Downloads 457
266 On the Framework of Contemporary Intelligent Mathematics Underpinning Intelligent Science, Autonomous AI, and Cognitive Computers

Authors: Yingxu Wang, Jianhua Lu, Jun Peng, Jiawei Zhang

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The fundamental demand in contemporary intelligent science towards Autonomous AI (AI*) is the creation of unprecedented formal means of Intelligent Mathematics (IM). It is discovered that natural intelligence is inductively created rather than exhaustively trained. Therefore, IM is a family of algebraic and denotational mathematics encompassing Inference Algebra, Real-Time Process Algebra, Concept Algebra, Semantic Algebra, Visual Frame Algebra, etc., developed in our labs. IM plays indispensable roles in training-free AI* theories and systems beyond traditional empirical data-driven technologies. A set of applications of IM-driven AI* systems will be demonstrated in contemporary intelligence science, AI*, and cognitive computers.

Keywords: intelligence mathematics, foundations of intelligent science, autonomous AI, cognitive computers, inference algebra, real-time process algebra, concept algebra, semantic algebra, applications

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265 Optimizing Boiler Combustion System in a Petrochemical Plant Using Neuro-Fuzzy Inference System and Genetic Algorithm

Authors: Yul Y. Nazaruddin, Anas Y. Widiaribowo, Satriyo Nugroho

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Boiler is one of the critical unit in a petrochemical plant. Steam produced by the boiler is used for various processes in the plant such as urea and ammonia plant. An alternative method to optimize the boiler combustion system is presented in this paper. Adaptive Neuro-Fuzzy Inference System (ANFIS) approach is applied to model the boiler using real-time operational data collected from a boiler unit of the petrochemical plant. Nonlinear equation obtained is then used to optimize the air to fuel ratio using Genetic Algorithm, resulting an optimal ratio of 15.85. This optimal ratio is then maintained constant by ratio controller designed using inverse dynamics based on ANFIS. As a result, constant value of oxygen content in the flue gas is obtained which indicates more efficient combustion process.

Keywords: ANFIS, boiler, combustion process, genetic algorithm, optimization.

Procedia PDF Downloads 226
264 First Principle Calculation of The Magnetic Properties of Mn-doped 6H-SiC

Authors: M. Al Azri, M. Elzain, K. Bouziane, S. M. Chérif

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The electronic and magnetic properties of 6H-SiC with Mn impurities have been calculated using ab-initio calculations. Various configurations of Mn sites and Si and C vacancies were considered. The magnetic coupling between the two Mn atoms at substitutional and interstitials sites with and without vacancies is studied as a function of Mn atoms interatomic distance. It was found that the magnetic interaction energy decreases with increasing distance between the magnetic atoms. The energy levels appearing in the band gap due to vacancies and due to Mn impurities are determined. The calculated DOS’s are used to analyze the nature of the exchange interaction between the impurities. The band coupling model based on the p-d and d-d level repulsions between Mn and SiC has been used to describe the magnetism observed in each configuration. Furthermore, the impacts of applying U to Mn-d orbital on the magnetic moment have also been investigated. The results are used to understand the experimental data obtained on Mn- 6H-SiC (as-implanted and as –annealed) for various Mn concentration (CMn = 0.7%, 1.6%, 7%).

Keywords: ab-initio calculations, diluted magnetic semiconductors, magnetic properties, silicon carbide

Procedia PDF Downloads 259
263 A Concept for Design of Road Super-Elevation Based on Horizontal Radius, Vertical Gradient and Accident Rate

Authors: U. Chattaraj, D. Meena

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Growth of traffic brings various negative effects, such as road accidents. To avoid such problems, a model is developed for the purpose of highway safety. In such areas, fuzzy logic is the most well-known simulation in the larger field. A model is accomplished for hilly and steep terrain based on Fuzzy Inference System (FIS), for which output is super elevation and input data is horizontal radius, vertical gradient, accident rate (AR). This result shows that the system can be efficaciously applied as for highway safety tool distinguishing hazards components correlated to the characteristics of the highway and has a great influence to the making of decision for accident precaution in transportation models. From this model, a positive relationship between geometric elements, accident rate, and super elevation is also identified.

Keywords: accident rate, fuzzy inference system, fuzzy logic, gradient, radius, super elevation

Procedia PDF Downloads 186
262 Proof of Concept Design and Development of a Computer-Aided Medical Evaluation of Symptoms Web App: An Expert System for Medical Diagnosis in General Practice

Authors: Ananda Perera

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Computer-Assisted Medical Evaluation of Symptoms (CAMEOS) is a medical expert system designed to help General Practices (GPs) make an accurate diagnosis. CAMEOS comprises a knowledge base, user input, inference engine, reasoning module, and output statement. The knowledge base was developed by the author. User input is an Html file. The physician user collects data in the consultation. Data is sent to the inference engine at servers. CAMEOS uses set theory to simulate diagnostic reasoning. The program output is a list of differential diagnoses, the most probable diagnosis, and the diagnostic reasoning.

Keywords: CDSS, computerized decision support systems, expert systems, general practice, diagnosis, diagnostic systems, primary care diagnostic system, artificial intelligence in medicine

Procedia PDF Downloads 127
261 Adaptive Neuro Fuzzy Inference System Model Based on Support Vector Regression for Stock Time Series Forecasting

Authors: Anita Setianingrum, Oki S. Jaya, Zuherman Rustam

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Forecasting stock price is a challenging task due to the complex time series of the data. The complexity arises from many variables that affect the stock market. Many time series models have been proposed before, but those previous models still have some problems: 1) put the subjectivity of choosing the technical indicators, and 2) rely upon some assumptions about the variables, so it is limited to be applied to all datasets. Therefore, this paper studied a novel Adaptive Neuro-Fuzzy Inference System (ANFIS) time series model based on Support Vector Regression (SVR) for forecasting the stock market. In order to evaluate the performance of proposed models, stock market transaction data of TAIEX and HIS from January to December 2015 is collected as experimental datasets. As a result, the method has outperformed its counterparts in terms of accuracy.

Keywords: ANFIS, fuzzy time series, stock forecasting, SVR

Procedia PDF Downloads 217
260 Study of ANFIS and ARIMA Model for Weather Forecasting

Authors: Bandreddy Anand Babu, Srinivasa Rao Mandadi, C. Pradeep Reddy, N. Ramesh Babu

Abstract:

In this paper quickly illustrate the correlation investigation of Auto-Regressive Integrated Moving and Average (ARIMA) and daptive Network Based Fuzzy Inference System (ANFIS) models done by climate estimating. The climate determining is taken from University of Waterloo. The information is taken as Relative Humidity, Ambient Air Temperature, Barometric Pressure and Wind Direction utilized within this paper. The paper is carried out by analyzing the exhibitions are seen by demonstrating of ARIMA and ANIFIS model like with Sum of average of errors. Versatile Network Based Fuzzy Inference System (ANFIS) demonstrating is carried out by Mat lab programming and Auto-Regressive Integrated Moving and Average (ARIMA) displaying is produced by utilizing XLSTAT programming. ANFIS is carried out in Fuzzy Logic Toolbox in Mat Lab programming.

Keywords: ARIMA, ANFIS, fuzzy surmising tool stash, weather forecasting, MATLAB

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259 The Formulation of Inference Fuzzy System as a Valuation Subsidiary Based Particle Swarm Optimization for Solves the Issue of Decision Making in Middle Size Soccer Robot League

Authors: Zahra Abdolkarimi, Naser Zouri

Abstract:

The actual purpose of RoboCup is creating independent team of robots in 2050 based of FiFa roles to bring the victory in compare of world star team. There is unbelievable growing of Robots created a collection of complex and motivate subject in robotic and intellectual ornate, also it made a mechatronics style base of theoretical and technical way in Robocop. Decision making of robots depends to environment reaction, self-player and rival player with using inductive Fuzzy system valuation subsidiary to solve issue of robots in land game. The measure of selection in compare with other methods depends to amount of victories percentage in the same team that plays accidentally.

Keywords: particle swarm optimization, chaos theory, inference fuzzy system, simulation environment rational fuzzy system, mamdani and assilian, deffuzify

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258 Failure Inference and Optimization for Step Stress Model Based on Bivariate Wiener Model

Authors: Soudabeh Shemehsavar

Abstract:

In this paper, we consider the situation under a life test, in which the failure time of the test units are not related deterministically to an observable stochastic time varying covariate. In such a case, the joint distribution of failure time and a marker value would be useful for modeling the step stress life test. The problem of accelerating such an experiment is considered as the main aim of this paper. We present a step stress accelerated model based on a bivariate Wiener process with one component as the latent (unobservable) degradation process, which determines the failure times and the other as a marker process, the degradation values of which are recorded at times of failure. Parametric inference based on the proposed model is discussed and the optimization procedure for obtaining the optimal time for changing the stress level is presented. The optimization criterion is to minimize the approximate variance of the maximum likelihood estimator of a percentile of the products’ lifetime distribution.

Keywords: bivariate normal, Fisher information matrix, inverse Gaussian distribution, Wiener process

Procedia PDF Downloads 297