Search results for: real estate price risk

Authors: Li Yang

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Tourism is employed by many countries to facilitate socioeconomic development and to assist in the heritage preservation. An “ethnic culture boom” is currently driving the tourism industry in China. Ethnic minorities, commonly portrayed as primitive, colorful and exotic, have become a big tourist draw. Many cultural attractions have been built throughout China to meet the demands of domestic tourists. Sacred cultural heritage sites have been rehabilitated as a major component of ethnic tourism. The purpose of this study is to examine the interconnected consequences of tourism development and tourism-related leisure property development and, and to discuss, in a broader context, issues and considerations that are pertinent to the management and development of ethnic attractions. The role of real estate in tourism development and its sociocultural consequences are explored. An empirical research was conducted in Yiren Ancient Town (literally, "Ancient Town of Yi People") in Chuxiong City, Yunnan Province, China. Multiple research methods, including in-depth interviews, informal discussions, on-site observations, and secondary data review were employed to measure residents and tourism decision-makers’ perceptions of ethnic tourism and to explore the impacts of tourism on local community. Key informants from government officials, tourism developers and local communities were interviewed individually to gather what they think about benefits and costs of tourism, and what their concerns about and hopes for tourism development are. Yiren Ancient Town was constructed in classical Yi architecture style featuring tranquil garden scenery. Commercial streets, entertainment complexes, and accommodation facilities occupied the center of the town, creating culturally distinctive and visually stimulating places for tourists. A variety of activities are presented to visitors, including walking tours of the town, staged dance shows, musical performances, ethnic festivals and ceremonies, tasting minority food and wedding shows. This study reveals that tourism real estate has transformed the town from a traditional neighborhood into diverse real estate landscapes. Ethnic architecture, costumes, festivals and folk culture have been represented, altered and reinvented through the tourist gaze and mechanisms of cultural production. Tourism is now a new economic driver of the community providing opportunities for the creation of small businesses. There was a general appreciation in the community that tourism has created many employment opportunities, especially for self-employment. However, profit-seeking is a primary motivation for the government, developers, businesses, and other actors involved in the tourism development process. As the town has attracted an increasing number of visitors, commercialization and business competition are intense in the town. Many residents complained about elevated land prices, making the town and the surroundings comparatively high-value locales. Local community is also concerned about the decline of traditional ethnic culture and an erosion of the sense of identity and place. A balance is difficult to maintain between protection and development. The preservation of ethnic culture and heritage should be enhanced if long-term sustainable development of tourism is to occur and the loss of ethnic identities is to be avoided.

Keywords: ancient town, ethnic tourism, local community, real estate, China

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Authors: Sumit Sen, Sohan Khedekar, Umang Shinde, Shivam Bhargava

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This study has been undertaken to investigate whether the deep learning models are able to predict the future stock prices by training the model with the historical stock price data. Since this work required time series analysis, various models are present today to perform time series analysis such as Recurrent Neural Network LSTM, ARIMA and Facebook Prophet. Applying these models the movement of stock price of stocks are predicted and also tried to provide the future prediction of the stock price of a stock. Final product will be a stock price prediction web application that is developed for providing the user the ease of analysis of the stocks and will also provide the predicted stock price for the next seven days.

Keywords: Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average, Deep Learning, Long Short Term Memory, Time-series

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Authors: Erindi Allaj

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This paper studies arbitrage pricing theory in financial markets with transaction costs. We extend the existing theory to include the more realistic possibility that the price at which the investors trade is dependent on the traded volume. The investors in the market always buy at the ask and sell at the bid price. Transaction costs are composed of two terms, one is able to capture the implicit transaction costs and the other the price impact. Moreover, a new definition of a self-financing portfolio is obtained. The self-financing condition suggests that continuous trading is possible, but is restricted to predictable trading strategies which have left and right limit and finite quadratic variation. That is, predictable trading strategies of infinite variation and of finite quadratic variation are allowed in our setting. Within this framework, the existence of an equivalent probability measure is equivalent to the absence of arbitrage opportunities, so that the first fundamental theorem of asset pricing (FFTAP) holds. It is also proved that, when this probability measure is unique, any contingent claim in the market is hedgeable in an L2-sense. The price of any contingent claim is equal to the risk-neutral price. To better understand how to apply the theory proposed we provide an example with linear transaction costs.

Keywords: arbitrage pricing theory,
transaction costs, fundamental theorems of arbitrage, financial markets

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Authors: Mike Tsionas

Abstract:

The paper develops new indices of financial stability based on an explicit model of expected utility maximization by financial institutions subject to the classical technology restrictions of neoclassical production theory. The model can be estimated using standard econometric techniques, like GMM for dynamic panel data and latent factor analysis for the estimation of co-variance matrices. An explicit functional form for the utility function is not needed and we show how measures of risk aversion and prudence (downside risk aversion) can be derived and estimated from the model. The model is estimated using data for Eurozone countries and we focus particularly on (i) the use of the modeling approach as an “early warning mechanism”, (ii) the bank- and country-specific estimates of risk aversion and prudence (downside risk aversion), and (iii) the derivation of a generalized measure of risk that relies on loan-price uncertainty.

Keywords: financial stability, banking, expected utility maximization, sub-prime crisis, financial crisis, eurozone, PIIGS

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Authors: Zareen Shahid

Abstract:

Rapid increase in population has resulted in uncontrolled and unplanned growth of metropolitan cities in Pakistan. Pakistan is facing unprecedented challenges of acute housing shortages, unhealthy living conditions and a non-existent or dilapidated infrastructure across the country. The government of Pakistan has also failed to devise a comprehensive and long-term strategy to cope with the problem of housing and better infrastructure development and management that has resulted in congestion, overcrowding and deterioration of environment in cities. On the other hand public has developed intense faith upon Defence Housing Authority (DHA) Lahore. This research paper is about to observe the difference in residential estate development and services provided by DHA Lahore. This paper attempts to identify the factors which are contributing towards the success of DHA and recommend measures for improvement in public sector for betterment.

Keywords: residential estate, development and management, defence housing authority

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Authors: Yo Fukutani, Shuji Moriguchi, Takuma Kotani, Terada Kenjiro

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If risk management of the assets owned by companies, risk assessment of real estate portfolio, and risk identification of the entire region are to be implemented, it is necessary to consider simultaneous damage to multiple buildings. In this research, the Sagami Trough earthquake tsunami that could have a significant effect on the Japanese capital region is focused on, and a method is proposed for simultaneous damage assessment using copulas that can take into consideration the correlation of tsunami depths and building damage between two sites. First, the tsunami inundation depths at two sites were simulated by using a nonlinear long-wave equation. The tsunamis were simulated by varying the slip amount (five cases) and the depths (five cases) for each of 10 sources of the Sagami Trough. For each source, the frequency distributions of the tsunami inundation depth were evaluated by using the response surface method. Then, Monte-Carlo simulation was conducted, and frequency distributions of tsunami inundation depth were evaluated at the target sites for all sources of the Sagami Trough. These are marginal distributions. Kendall’s tau for the tsunami inundation simulation at two sites was 0.83. Based on this value, the Gaussian copula, t-copula, Clayton copula, and Gumbel copula (n = 10,000) were generated. Then, the simultaneous distributions of the damage rate were evaluated using the marginal distributions and the copulas. For the correlation of the tsunami inundation depth at the two sites, the expected value hardly changed compared with the case of no correlation, but the damage rate of the ninety-ninth percentile value was approximately 2%, and the maximum value was approximately 6% when using the Gumbel copula.

Keywords: copulas, Monte-Carlo simulation, probabilistic risk assessment, tsunamis

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Authors: George Hadjinicola, Andreas Soteriou

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This paper examines the relationship between the number of price promotions that a firm should conduct per year and the level of safety stocks that the firm should maintain. Price promotions result in temporary sales increases, which affect the operations function through (1) an increase in the quantities demanded and (2) an increase in safety stocks required to maintain the desired service level. We propose a modeling framework where both price promotions and improved service levels, operationalized through higher safety stocks, can affect sales. We treat the annual number of promotions as a decision variable. We identify market conditions where the operations function, through improved safety stocks, can complement price promotions or even play the leading role in sales increases.

Keywords: price promotions, safety stocks, marketing/operations interface, mathematical model

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Authors: Salako Rotimi, Oshungade Stephen, Ojewoye Opeyemi

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The maintenance of price stability is one of the macroeconomic challenges facing Nigeria as a nation. This paper attempts to build a co-integration multivariate time series model for inflation movement in Nigeria using data extracted from the abstract of statistics of the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) from 2008 to 2017. The Johansen cointegration test suggests at least one co-integration vector describing the long run relationship between Consumer Price Index (CPI), Food Price Index (FPI) and Non-Food Price Index (NFPI). All three series show increasing pattern, which indicates a sign of non-stationary in each of the series. Furthermore, model predictability was established with root-mean-square-error, mean absolute error, mean average percentage error, and Theil’s unbiased statistics for n-step forecasting. The result depicts that the long run coefficient of a consumer price index (CPI) has a positive long-run relationship with the food price index (FPI) and non-food price index (NFPI).

Keywords: economic, inflation, model, series

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Authors: Minseo Jo

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The purpose of this paper is to examine the factors in the hedonic price models, that has significance impact in determining the price of apartments. There are many variables employed in the hedonic price models and their effectiveness vary differently according to the researchers and the regions they are analysing. In order to consider various conditions, the meta-regression analysis has been selected for the study. In this paper, four meta-independent variables, from the 65 hedonic price models to analysis. The factors that influence the prices of apartments, as well as including factors that influence the prices of apartments, regions, which are divided into two of the research performed, years of research performed, the coefficients of the functions employed. The covariance between the four meta-variables and p-value of the coefficients and the four meta-variables and number of data used in the 65 hedonic price models have been analyzed in this study. The six factors that are most important in deciding the prices of apartments are positioning of apartments, the noise of the apartments, points of the compass and views from the apartments, proximity to the public transportations, companies that have constructed the apartments, social environments (such as schools etc.).

Keywords: hedonic price model, housing price, meta-regression analysis, characteristics

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Authors: Sayedramin Hashemianesfehani, Seyed Hossein Hosseinilargani

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In this study, we attempt to realize that to what extent the increase in selected commodities in Iran Market is originated from the implementation of the targeted subsidies law. Hence, an econometric model based on existing theories of increasing and transferring prices in order to transferring inflation is developed. In other words, world price index and virtual variables defined for targeted subsidies has significant and positive impact on the producer price index. The obtained results indicated that the targeted subsidies act in Iran has influential long and short-term impacts on producer price indexes. Finally, world prices of dairy products and dairy price with respect to major parameters is carried out to obtain some managerial ‎results.

Keywords: econometric models, targeted subsidies, consumer price index (CPI), producer price index (PPI)

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Authors: Garba Inuwa Kuta, Mohammed, Adamu, Mohammed Ahmed Emigilati, Ibrahim Ishiaku, Kudu Dangana

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The study sought to identify the problems of solid waste management in General Mohammed InuwaWushishi Housing Estate. The two broad types of data, the secondary and primary data were used in the study. Questionnaires and personal observations were also used to collect some of the data. Factors impeding the effective and efficient solid waste management were identified. The study revealed that sacks disposal method and open dumping are the most commonly used method of disposal, about 30.0% of the respondent use sacks disposal method in the estate while 24.9% dump their refuse on the floor. Wrong attitudes and perceptions of the people about sanitation issues contributed to solid waste management problems of General Mohammed InuwaWushishi Housing Estate. Majority of the households did not educate their members on the need to clean their surroundings and refuse to buy drum for waste disposal from Niger State Environmental Protection Agency (NISEPA) on the basis that the drums are expensive. Virtually, all the people depended on Niger State Environmental Protection Agency (NISEPA) facilities for the disposal of their household refuse. Solid waste management problems were partly the results of NISEPA’s inability to cope with the situation because of lack of equipment. It was recommended that there should be an increase in enlightenment to the people on domestic waste disposal to keep the surroundings clean.

Keywords: housing estate, assessment, solid waste, disposal, management

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Authors: Shashwat Gangwal

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This paper analyses the effect of adding Bitcoin, to the portfolio (stocks, bonds, Baltic index, MXEF, gold, real estate and crude oil) of an international investor by using daily data available from 2^nd of July, 2010 to 2^{nd of} August, 2016. We conclude that adding Bitcoin to portfolio, over the course of the considered period, always yielded a higher Sharpe ratio. This means that Bitcoin’s returns offset its high volatility. This paper, recognizing the fact that Bitcoin is a relatively new asset class, gives the readers a basic idea about the working of the virtual currency, the increasing number developments in the financial industry revolving around it, its unique features and the detailed look into its continuously growing acceptance across different fronts (Banks, Merchants and Countries) globally. We also construct optimal portfolios to reflect the highly lucrative and largely unexplored opportunities associated with investment in Bitcoin.

Keywords: bitcoin, financial instruments, portfolio management, risk adjusted return

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Authors: F. Gökgöz, M. E. Atmaca

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Electricity has an indispensable role in human daily life, technological development and economy. It is a special product or service that should be instantaneously generated and consumed. Sources of the world are limited so that effective and efficient use of them is very important not only for human life and environment but also for technological and economic development. Competitive electricity market is one of the important way that provides suitable platform for effective and efficient use of electricity. Besides benefits, it brings along some risks that should be carefully managed by a market player like Electricity Generation Company. Risk management is an essential part in market players’ decision making. In this paper, risk management through diversification is applied with the help of Value at Risk methods for case studies. Performance of optimal electricity sale solutions are measured and the portfolio performance has been evaluated via Sharpe-Ratio, and compared with conventional approach. Biennial historical electricity price data of Turkish Day Ahead Market are used to demonstrate the approach.

Keywords: electricity market, portfolio optimization, risk management, value at risk

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Authors: Mehdi Janbaz

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The global financial crisis and the credit crunch that followed magnified the importance of credit risk management and its crucial role in the stability of all financial sectors and the whole of the system. Many believe that risks faced by the sovereign sector are highly interconnected with banking risks and most likely to trigger and reinforce each other. This study aims to examine (1) the impact of banking and interbank risk factors on the sovereign credit risk of Eurozone, and (2) how the EU Credit Default Swaps spreads dynamics are affected by the Crude Oil price fluctuations. The hypothesizes are tested by employing fitting risk measures and through a four-staged linear modeling approach. The sovereign senior 5-year Credit Default Swap spreads are used as a core measure of the credit risk. The monthly time-series data of the variables used in the study are gathered from the DataStream database for a period of 2008-2019. First, a linear model test the impact of regional macroeconomic and market-based factors (STOXX, VSTOXX, Oil, Sovereign Debt, and Slope) on the CDS spreads dynamics. Second, the bank-specific factors, including LIBOR-OIS spread (the difference between the Euro 3-month LIBOR rate and Euro 3-month overnight index swap rates) and Euribor, are added to the most significant factors of the previous model. Third, the global financial factors including EURO to USD Foreign Exchange Volatility, TED spread (the difference between 3-month T-bill and the 3-month LIBOR rate based in US dollars), and Chicago Board Options Exchange (CBOE) Crude Oil Volatility Index are added to the major significant factors of the first two models. Finally, a model is generated by a combination of the major factor of each variable set in addition to the crisis dummy. The findings show that (1) the explanatory power of LIBOR-OIS on the sovereign CDS spread of Eurozone is very significant, and (2) there is a meaningful adverse co-movement between the Crude Oil price and CDS price of Eurozone. Surprisingly, adding TED spread (the difference between the three-month Treasury bill and the three-month LIBOR based in US dollars.) to the analysis and beside the LIBOR-OIS spread (the difference between the Euro 3M LIBOR and Euro 3M OIS) in third and fourth models has been increased the predicting power of LIBOR-OIS. Based on the results, LIBOR-OIS, Stoxx, TED spread, Slope, Oil price, OVX, FX volatility, and Euribor are the determinants of CDS spreads dynamics in Eurozone. Moreover, the positive impact of the crisis period on the creditworthiness of the Eurozone is meaningful.

Keywords: CDS, crude oil, interbank risk, LIBOR-OIS, OVX, sovereign credit risk, TED

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Authors: Mohammed El-Arbi Khalfallah, Mohamed Lakhdar Hadji

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Managing and controlling risk is a topic research in the world of finance. Before a risky situation, the stakeholders need to do comparison according to the positions and actions, and financial institutions must take measures of a particular market risk and credit. In this work, we study a model of risk measure in finance: Value at Risk (VaR), which is a new tool for measuring an entity's exposure risk. We explain the concept of value at risk, your average, tail, and describe the three methods for computing: Parametric method, Historical method, and numerical method of Monte Carlo. Finally, we briefly describe advantages and disadvantages of the three methods for computing value at risk.

Keywords: average value at risk, conditional value at risk, tail value at risk, value at risk

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Authors: Yuan Tian, Benhe Gao

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This paper aims to investigate a two stage supply chain of one leading supplier and one following retailer that experiences two factors perturbation out of supplier's production cost, retailer's marginal cost and retail price in stochastic demand environment. Granted that risk neutral condition has long been discussed, little attention has been given to disruptions under the premise of risk neutral supplier and risk aversion retailer. We establish the optimal order quantity and revealed the profit distribution coefficient in risk-neutral static model, make adjustment under disruption scenario, and then select utility function method for risk aversion model. Using buy-back contract policy, the improvement of parameters can achieve channel coordination where Pareto optimal is realized.

Keywords: supply chain coordination, disruption management, buy-back contract, lose aversion

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Authors: Charles-Olivier Amédée-Manesme, Benoit Faye, Eric Le Fur

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In this paper, the heterogeneity of the Bordeaux Legends 50 wine market price segment is addressed. For this purpose, quantile regression is applied – with market segmentation based on wine bottle price quantile – and the hedonic price of wine attributes is computed for various price segments of the market. The approach is applied to a major privately held data set which consists of approximately 30,000 transactions over the 2003–2014 period. The findings suggest that the relative hedonic prices of several wine attributes differ significantly among deciles. In particular, the elasticity coefficient of the expert ratings shows strong variation among prices. If - as suggested in the literature - expert ratings have a positive influence on wine price on average, they have a clearly decreasing impact over the quantiles. Finally, the lower the wine price, the higher the potential for price appreciation over time. Other variables such as chateaux or vintage are also shown to vary across the distribution of wine prices. While enhancing our understanding of the complex market dynamics that underlie Bordeaux wines’ price, this research provides empirical evidence that the QR approach adequately captures heterogeneity among wine price ranges, which simultaneously applies to wine stock, vintage and auctions’ house.

Keywords: hedonics, market segmentation, quantile regression, heterogeneity, wine economics

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Authors: Bel Abed Ines Mariem

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Different stock markets keep changing their exchange structure for the only purpose of improving the functioning of their markets. This paper investigates the effects of the transfer from one trading category to another in the Tunisian Stock Exchange on market price and liquidity. The sample consists of 40 securities transferred from call auction to continuous auction and conversely during the period between 2004 and 2013. The methodology used is the event study. Empirical results show an interesting phenomenon observed; stocks transferred to the call system have experienced an improvement on their price and liquidity especially for less liquid ones. However, price and liquidity for stocks transferred from call system to continuous system have decreased.

Keywords: microstructure, call auction, continuous auction, price, liquidity and event study

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Authors: S. K. Ashiquer Rahman

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Recently, oil has become more influential in almost every economic sector as a key material. As can be seen from the news, when there are some changes in an oil price or OPEC announces a new strategy, its effect spreads to every part of the economy directly and indirectly. That’s a reason why people always observe the oil price and try to forecast the changes of it. The most important factor affecting the price is its supply which is determined by the number of wildcats drilled. Therefore, a study about the number of wellheads and other economic variables may give us some understanding of the mechanism indicated by the amount of oil supplies. In this paper, we will consider a relationship between the number of wellheads and three key factors: the price of the wellhead, domestic output, and GNP constant dollars. We also add trend variables in the models because the consumption of oil varies from time to time. Moreover, this paper will use an econometrics method to estimate parameters in the model, apply some tests to verify the result we acquire, and then conclude the model.

Keywords: price, domestic output, GNP, trend variable, wildcat activity

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Authors: Tai-Yue Wang, Yi-Ho Chen

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In this study, we investigate a two-echelon supply chain with two suppliers and three retailers among which one retailer dominates other retailers. A price competition demand function is used to model this dominant retailer, which is leading market. The promotion strategies and negotiation schemes are integrated to form decision-making models under different scenarios. These models are then formulated into different mathematical programming models. The decision variables such as promotional costs, retailer prices, wholesale price, and order quantity are included in these models. At last, the distributions of promotion costs under different cost allocation strategies are discussed. Finally, an empirical example used to validate our models. The results from this empirical example show that the profit model will create the largest profit for the supply chain but with different profit-sharing results. At the same time, the more risk a member can take, the more profits are distributed to that member in the utility model.

Keywords: supply chain, price promotion, mathematical models, dominant retailer

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Authors: Ernawati Mustafa Kamal, Hasnanywati Hassan, Atasya Osmadi

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The housing industry is crucial for sustainable development of every country. Housing is a basic need that can enhance the quality of life. Owning a house is therefore the main aim of individuals. However, affordability has become a critical issue towards homeownership. In recent years, housing price in the main cities has increased tremendously to unaffordable level. This paper investigates factors influencing the housing price from developer’s perspective and provides recommendation on strategies to tackle this issue. Online and face-to-face survey was conducted on housing developers operating in Penang, Malaysia. The results indicate that (1) location; (2) macroeconomics factor; (3) demographic factors; (4) land/zoning and; (5) industry factors are the main factors influencing the housing price. This paper contributes towards better understanding on developers’ view on how the housing price is determined and form a basis for government to help tackle the housing affordability issue.

Keywords: factors influence, house price, housing developers, Malaysia

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Authors: Ulas Cinar, Omer Faruk Ugurlu, Selcuk Cebi

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Occupational safety risk management is the most important element of a safe working environment. Effective risk management can only be possible with accurate analysis and evaluations. Scoring-based risk assessment methods offer considerable ease of application as they convert linguistic expressions into numerical results. It can also be easily adapted to any field. Contrary to all these advantages, important problems in scoring-based methods are frequently discussed. Effective measurability is one of the most critical problems. Existing methods allow experts to choose a score equivalent to each parameter. Therefore, experts prefer the score of the most likely outcome for risk. However, all other possible consequences are neglected. Assessments of the existing methods express the most probable level of risk, not the real risk of the enterprises. In this study, it is aimed to develop a method that will present a more comprehensive evaluation compared to the existing methods by evaluating the probability and severity scores, all sub-parameters, and potential results, and a new scoring-based method is proposed in the literature.

Keywords: occupational health and safety, risk assessment, scoring based risk assessment method, underground mining, weighted risk scores

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Authors: Min Wang, Sergey Utev

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The lessons from the 2007-09 global financial crisis have driven scientific research, which considers the design of new methodologies and financial models in the global market. The quantum mechanics approach was introduced in the unpredictable stock market modeling. One famous quantum tool is Feynman path integral method, which was used to model insurance risk by Tamturk and Utev and adapted to formalize the path-dependent option pricing by Hao and Utev. The research is based on the path-dependent calculation method, which is motivated by the Feynman path integral method. The path calculation can be studied in two ways, one way is to label, and the other is computational. Labeling is a part of the representation of objects, and generating functions can provide many different ways of representing share price paths. In this paper, the recent works on graphical theoretical construction of individual share price path via matroid is presented. Firstly, a study is done on the knowledge of matroid, relationship between lattice path matroid and Tutte polynomials and ways to connect points in the lattice path matroid and Tutte polynomials is suggested. Secondly, It is found that a general binary tree can be validly constructed from a connected lattice path matroid rather than general lattice path matroid. Lastly, it is suggested that there is a way to represent share price paths via a general binary tree, and an algorithm is developed to construct share price paths from general binary trees. A relationship is also provided between lattice integer points and Tutte polynomials of a transversal matroid. Use this way of connection together with the algorithm, a share price path can be constructed from a given connected lattice path matroid.

Keywords: combinatorial construction, graphical representation, matroid, path calculation, share price, Tutte polynomial

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Authors: S. Masud, J. Merson, D. F. Robinson

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The management of environmental resources requires engagement of a range of stakeholders including public/private agencies and different community groups to implement sustainable conservation practices. The challenge which is often ignored is the analysis of agencies involved and their power relations. One of the barriers identified is the difference in risk perceptions among the agencies involved that leads to disjointed efforts of assessing and managing risks. Wood et al 2012, explains that it is important to have an integrated approach to risk management where decision makers address stakeholder perspectives. This is critical for an effective risk management policy. This abstract is part of a PhD research that looks into barriers to flood management under a changing climate and intends to identify bottlenecks that create maladaptation. Experiences are drawn from international practices in the UK and examined in the context of Australia through exploring the flood governance in a highly flood-prone region in Australia: the Hawkesbury Ne-pean catchment as a case study. In this research study several aspects of governance and management are explored: (i) the complexities created by the way different agencies are involved in assessing flood risks (ii) different perceptions on acceptable flood risk level; (iii) perceptions on community engagement in defining acceptable flood risk level; (iv) Views on a holistic flood risk management approach; and, (v) challenges of centralised information system. The study concludes that the complexity of managing a large catchment is exacerbated by the difference in the way professionals perceive the problem. This has led to: (a) different standards for acceptable risks; (b) inconsistent attempt to set-up a regional scale flood management plan beyond the jurisdictional boundaries: (c) absence of a regional scale agency with license to share and update information (d) Lack of forums for dialogue with insurance companies to ensure an integrated approach to flood management. The research takes the Hawkesbury-Nepean catchment as case example and draws from literary evidence from around the world. In addition, conclusions were extrapolated from eighteen semi-structured interviews from agencies involved in flood risk management in the Hawkesbury-Nepean catchment of NSW, Australia. The outcome of this research is to provide a better understanding of complexity in assessing risks against a rapidly changing climate and contribute towards developing effective risk communication strategies thus enabling better management of floods and achieving increased level of support from insurance companies, real-estate agencies, state and regional risk managers and the affected communities.

Keywords: adaptive governance, flood management, flood risk communication, stakeholder risk perceptions

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Authors: Jingxian An, Wei Yu

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The commercial value (retail price) of wine is mostly determined by the wine quality, ageing potential, and oak influence. This paper reveals that wine quality, ageing potential, and oak influence are favourably correlated, hence positively influencing the commercial value of Pinot noir wines. Oak influence is the most influential of these three sensory attributes on the price set by wine traders and estimated by experienced customers. In the meanwhile, this study gives winemakers with chemical instructions for raising total phenolics, which can improve wine quality, ageing potential, and oak influence, all of which can increase a wine’s economic worth.

Keywords: retail price, ageing potential, wine quality, oak influence

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Authors: Adel Almasarwah

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This study investigates the nature of association between profit warnings and stock price informativeness in the context of Jordan as an emerging country. The analysis is based on the response of stock price synchronicity to profit warnings percentages that have been published in Jordanian firms throughout the period spanning 2005–2016 in the Amman Stock Exchange. The standard of profit warnings indicators have related negatively to stock price synchronicity in Jordanian firms, meaning that firms with a high portion of profit warnings integrate with more firm-specific information into stock price. Robust regression was used rather than OLS as a parametric test to overcome the variances inflation factor (VIF) and heteroscedasticity issues recognised as having occurred during running the OLS regression; this enabled us to obtained stronger results that fall in line with our prediction that higher profit warning encourages firm investors to collect and process more firm-specific information than common market information.

Keywords: Profit Warnings, Jordanian Firms, Stock Price Informativeness, Synchronicity

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Authors: Ahmad Dahlan Salleh, Nik Abdul Rahim Nik Abdul Ghani, Muhamad Firdaus M. Hatta

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Risk management has implications on pricing, governance arrangements, business practices and strategy. Nowadays, home financing contract offers more in the risk transfer form to increase bank profit. This is parallel with Islamic jurisprudence method al-Kharaj bi al-thaman (gain accompanies liability for loss) and al-ghurm bil ghunm (gain is justified with risk) that determine the matching between risk transfer and returns. Malaysian financing trend is to buy house. Besides, exists transparency lacking risk transfer issues to the clients because of not been informed clearly. Terms and conditions of each financing also do not reflect clearly that the risk has been transferred to the client, justifying a determination price been made. The assumption on risk occurrence is also inaccurate as each risk is different with the type of financing contract. This makes the Islamic Financial Services Act 2013 in providing standards that transparent and consistent can be used by Islamic financial institution less effective. This study examines how far the level of the risk and obligation incurred by bank and client under various Islamic home financing contract. This research is qualitative by using two methods, document analysis, and semi-structured interviews. Document analysis from literature review to identify profile, themes and risk transfer element in home financing from Islamic jurisprudence perspective. This study finds that need to create a risk transfer parameter by banks which are consistent with risk transfer theory according to Islamic jurisprudence. This study has potential to assist the authority in Islamic finance such as The Central Bank of Malaysia (Bank Negara Malaysia) in regulating Islamic banking industry so that the risk transfer valuation in home financing contract based on home financing good practice and determined risk limits.

Keywords: risk transfer, home financing contract, Sharia compliant, Malaysia

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Authors: Keith Dominic T. Li

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The soaring prices of residential properties in Hong Kong has become a social problem that even the middle class is having dif?iculties in purchasing homes. In making policies to curb the prices, it is important to determine the factors that contribute to the property in?lation. Many researches attribute this in?lation to macroeconomic factors especially the interest rate. However, it is important to remember that Hong Kong is under a Currency Board system which makes its interest rate exogenously determined. This research aims to show the signi?icance of the money supply on Hong Kong residential property prices in post-1997 Asian Financial Crisis period. Using money supply data, macroeconomic fundamentals, and demographic variables from 2000Q1 to 2013Q2, the factors contributed to residential property price in?lation are estimated to calculate the share of each explanatory variable in disparity. It is found that the Hong Kong property market is mainly driven by investment and that the in?lation on Hong Kong residential property prices can explained by the increase in the Hang Seng Index and in the money supply M2.

Keywords: real estate, Hong Kong, property market, monetary economics, monetary policy

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Authors: Mohammad Azam

Abstract:

The purpose of this study is to investigate risk and real excess portfolio returns using inflation adjusted risk-free rates, a measuring technique that focuses on the momentum augmented Fama-French six-factor model and use monthly data from 1994 to 2022. With the exception of profitability, the data show that market, size, value, momentum, and investment factors are all strongly associated to excess portfolio stock returns using ordinary lease square regression technique. According to the Gibbons, Ross, and Shanken test, the momentum augmented Fama-French six-factor model outperforms the market. This technique discovery may be utilised by academics and professionals to acquire an in-depth knowledge of the Pakistan Stock Exchange across a broad stock pattern for investing decisions and portfolio construction.

Keywords: real excess portfolio returns, momentum augmented fama & french five-factor model, GRS-test, pakistan stock exchange

Procedia PDF Downloads 76

Authors: Ayorinde B. Ogunremi, Kehinde A. Adewoyin, Adebamwo Adebayo

Abstract:

Record of radionuclide concentration in an environment is essential to ensure human safety due to exposure to ionizing radiation. This study aimed at assessing the radionuclide concentration and doses from soil samples in the study area. Twenty soil samples were collected and dried in the oven at 110°C to remove the moisture, pulverized, and sieved. 200 g of each of the samples were sealed in cylindrical sample holders; they were left for four weeks to attain secular equilibrium between ²²⁶Ra and its decay daughters, after which the sample was analyzed using gamma-ray spectrometry. After the well-guided procedure for the calibrations, the analysis of the samples was carried out using a well-calibrated NaI (TI) and well-shielded detector coupled to a computer resident quantum MCA2100 R Multichannel analyzer for 36,000 s. The mean activity concentrations of ⁴⁰K, ²²⁶Ra, and ²³²Th obtained were calculated to be 272.37 ± 33.58, 10.97 ± 3.24, 9.39 ± 2.27 Bqkg-1 respectively. The average absorbed dose obtained was 22.10 nGy/h. The radium equivalent activity (Raeq) was estimated to be 43.27 Bq/kg. The activity concentrations (Bq/kg) were below the recommended values, which are 420, 33, and 45 for ⁴⁰K, ²²⁶Ra, and ²³²Th, respectively. Considering the results, we conclude thus, the radiation level within the estate poses no significant health risk on dwellers and workers.

Keywords: absorbed, effective, multichannel, radionuclide

Procedia PDF Downloads 180