Search results for: natural hazard risks

Authors: B. G. Muhammad, S. M. Jafar

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Neutron Activation Analysis (NAA) and Inductively Coupled Plasma Mass Spectrometry (ICP-MS) were employed to analyze the level of trace elements concentrations in sediment samples and their bioaccumulation in some aquatic species selected randomly from surface water resources in the Northern peninsula of Malaysia. The NAA results of the sediment samples indicated a wide range in concentration of different elements were observed. Fe, K, and Na were found to have major concentration values that ranges between 61,000 ± 1400 to 4,500 ± 100 ppm, 20100±1000 to 3100±600 and 3,100±600 and 200±10 ppm, respectively. Traces of heavy metals with much more contamination health concern, such as Cr and As, were also identified in many of the samples analyzed. The average specific activities of 40K, 232Th and 226Ra in soil and the corresponding radium equivalent activity and the external hazard index were all found to be lower than the maximum permissible limits (370 Bq kg-1 and 1).

Keywords: external hazard index, Neutron Activation Analysis, radium equivalent, trace elements concentrations

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Authors: Eakarat Boonreang

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The past two decades, Thailand faced the natural disasters, for instance, Gay typhoon in 1989, tsunami in 2004, and huge flood in 2011. The disaster management in Thailand was improved both structure and mechanism for cope with the natural disaster since 2007. However, the natural disaster management in Thailand has various problems, for examples, cooperation between related an organizations have not unity, inadequate resources, the natural disaster management of public sectors not proactive, people has not awareness the risk of the natural disaster, and communities did not participate in the natural disaster management. Objective of this study is to find the methods for capacity building in the natural disaster management of Thailand. The concept and information about the capacity building and the natural disaster management of Thailand were reviewed and analyzed by classifying and organizing data. The result found that the methods for capacity building in the natural disaster management of Thailand should be consist of 1)link operation and information in the natural disaster management between nation, province, local and community levels, 2)enhance competency and resources of public sectors which relate to the natural disaster management, 3)establish proactive natural disaster management both planning and implementation, 4)decentralize the natural disaster management to local government organizations, 5)construct public awareness in the natural disaster management to community, 6)support Community Based Disaster Risk Management (CBDRM) seriously, and 7)emphasis on participation in the natural disaster management of all stakeholders.

Keywords: capacity building, Community Based Disaster Risk Management (CBDRM), Natural Disaster Management, Thailand

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Authors: Muhamad Aris Burhanudin, Angga Firmansyas, Bagus Jaya Santosa

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Earthquakes are natural hazard that can trigger the most dangerous hazard, tsunami. 26 December 2004, a giant earthquake occurred in north-west Andalas Island. It made giant tsunami which crushed Sumatra, Bangladesh, India, Sri Lanka, Malaysia and Singapore. More than twenty thousand people dead. The occurrence of earthquake and tsunami can not be avoided. But this hazard can be mitigated by earthquake forecasting. Early preparation is the key factor to reduce its damages and consequences. We aim to investigate quantitatively on pattern of earthquake. Then, we can know the trend. We study about earthquake which has happened in Andalas island, Indonesia one last decade. Andalas is island which has high seismicity, more than a thousand event occur in a year. It is because Andalas island is in tectonic subduction zone of Hindia sea plate and Eurasia plate. A tsunami forecasting is needed to mitigation action. Thus, a Tsunami Forecasting Method is presented in this work. Neutral Network has used widely in many research to estimate earthquake and it is convinced that by using Backpropagation Method, earthquake can be predicted. At first, ANN is trained to predict Tsunami 26 December 2004 by using earthquake data before it. Then after we get trained ANN, we apply to predict the next earthquake. Not all earthquake will trigger Tsunami, there are some characteristics of earthquake that can cause Tsunami. Wrong decision can cause other problem in the society. Then, we need a method to reduce possibility of wrong decision. Fuzzy TOPSIS is a statistical method that is widely used to be decision seconder referring to given parameters. Fuzzy TOPSIS method can make the best decision whether it cause Tsunami or not. This work combines earthquake prediction using neural network method and using Fuzzy TOPSIS to determine the decision that the earthquake triggers Tsunami wave or not. Neural Network model is capable to capture non-linear relationship and Fuzzy TOPSIS is capable to determine the best decision better than other statistical method in tsunami prediction.

Keywords: earthquake, fuzzy TOPSIS, neural network, tsunami

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Authors: Manpreet Kaur

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The effect of external and internal exposure in outdoor and indoor environment can be significantly gauged by natural radionuclides. Therefore, it is a consequential to approximate the level of radionuclide contents in soil samples of any area and the risks associated with it. Rate of radon emerging from soil is also one of the prominent parameters for the assessment of radon levels in environmental. In present study, natural radionuclide contents viz. ²³²Th, ²³⁸U and ⁴⁰K and radon/thoron exhalation rates were evaluated operating thallium doped sodium iodide gamma radiation detector and advanced Smart Rn Duo technique in the soil samples from 30 villages of Jammu district, Jammu and Kashmir, India. Radon flux rate was also measured by using surface chamber technique. Results obtained with two different methods were compared to investigate the cause of emanation factor in the soil profile. The radon mass exhalation rate in the soil samples has been found varying from 15 ± 0.4 to 38 ± 0.8 mBq kg⁻¹ h⁻¹ while thoron surface exhalation rate has been found varying from 90 ± 22 to 4880 ± 280 Bq m⁻² h⁻¹. The mean value of radium equivalent activity (99 ± 27 Bq kg⁻¹) was appeared to be well within the admissible limit of 370 Bq kg⁻¹ suggested by Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (2009) report. The values of various parameters related to radiological hazards were also calculated and all parameters have been found to be well below the safe limits given by various organizations. The outcomes pointed out that region was protected from danger as per health risks effects associated with these radionuclide contents is concerned.

Keywords: absorbed dose rate, exhalation rate, human health, radionuclide

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Authors: Shaya Alshahrani

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Perceived risks play a major role in consumer intentions, behaviors, attitudes, and decisions about online shopping in the KSA. This paper investigates the influence of six perceived risk dimensions on Saudi consumers: product risk, information risk, financial risk, privacy and security risk, delivery risk, and terms and conditions risk empirically. To ensure the success of this study, a random survey was distributed to reflect the consumers’ perceived risk and to enable the generalization of the results. Data were collected from 323 respondents in the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia (KSA): 50 who had never shopped online and 273 who had done so. The results indicated that all six risks influenced the respondents’ perceptions of online shopping. The non-online shoppers perceived financial and delivery risks as the most significant barriers to online shopping. This was followed closely by performance, information, and privacy and security risks. Terms and conditions were perceived as less significant. The online consumers considered delivery and performance risks to be the most significant influences on internet shopping. This was followed closely by information and terms and conditions. Financial and privacy and security risks were perceived as less significant. This paper argues that introducing adequate legal solutions to addressing related problems arising from this study is an urgent need. This may enhance consumer trust in the KSA online market, increase consumers’ intentions regarding online shopping, and improve consumer protection.

Keywords: perceived risk, online contracts, Saudi Arabia, consumer protection

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Authors: Chang Hsueh-Sheng, Chen Tzu-Ling

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Earthquake is an unpredictable natural disaster and intensive earthquakes have caused serious impacts on social-economic system, environmental and social resilience, and further increase vulnerability. Due to earthquakes do not kill people, buildings do. When buildings located nearby earthquake-prone areas and constructed upon poorer soil areas might result in earthquake-induced ground damage. In addition, many existing buildings built before any improved seismic provisions began to be required in building codes and inappropriate land usage with highly dense population might result in much serious earthquake disaster. Indeed, not only do earthquake disaster impact seriously on urban environment, but urban growth might increase the vulnerability. Since 1980s, ‘Cutting down risks and vulnerability’ has been brought up in both urban planning and architecture and such concept has way beyond retrofitting of seismic damages, seismic resistance, and better anti-seismic structures, and become the key action on disaster mitigation. Land use planning and zoning are two critical non-structural measures on controlling physical development while it is difficult for zoning boards and governing bodies restrict development of questionable lands to uses compatible with the hazard without credible earthquake loss projection. Therefore, identifying potential earthquake exposure, vulnerability people and places, and urban development areas might become strongly supported information for decision makers. Taiwan locates on the Pacific Ring of Fire where a seismically active zone is. Some of the active faults have been found close by densely populated and highly developed built environment in the cities. Therefore, this study attempts to base on the perspective of carrying capacity and draft out micro-zonation according to both vulnerability index and urban growth index while considering spatial variances of multi factors via geographical weighted principle components (GWPCA). The purpose in this study is to construct supported information for decision makers on revising existing zoning in high-risk areas for a more compatible use and the public on managing risks.

Keywords: earthquake disaster, vulnerability, urban growth, carrying capacity, /geographical weighted principle components (GWPCA), bivariate spatial association statistic

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Authors: Arie Pujiwati, Kengo Nakamura, Noriaki Watanabe, Takeshi Komai

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Coal mining is well known to cause considerable environmental impacts, including trace element contamination of soil. This study aimed to assess the trace element (As, Cd, Co, Cu, Ni, Pb, Sb, and Zn) contamination of soil in the vicinity of coal mining activities, using the case study of Asam-asam River basin, South Kalimantan, Indonesia, and to assess the human health risk, incorporating total and bioavailable (water-leachable and acid-leachable) concentrations. The results show the enrichment of As and Co in soil, surpassing the background soil value. Contamination was evaluated based on the index of geo-accumulation, I_geo and the pollution index, PI. I_geo values showed that the soil was generally uncontaminated (I_geo ≤ 0), except for elevated As and Co. Mean PI for Ni and Cu indicated slight contamination. Regarding the assessment of health risks, the Hazard Index, HI showed adverse risks (HI > 1) for Ni, Co, and As. Further, Ni and As were found to pose unacceptable carcinogenic risk (risk > 1.10^-5). Farming, settlement, and plantation were found to present greater risk than coal mines. These results show that coal mining activity in the study area contaminates the soils by particular elements and may pose potential human health risk in its surrounding area. This study is important for setting appropriate countermeasure actions and improving basic coal mining management in Indonesia.

Keywords: coal mine, risk, trace elements, soil

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Authors: M. Ndaw, G. Mendy, S. Ouya

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Risk management in banking sector is a key issue linked to financial system stability and its importance has been elevated by technological developments and emergence of new financial instruments. In this paper, we improve the model previously defined for quantifying internal control impact on banking risks by automatizing the residual criticality estimation step of FMECA. For this, we defined three equations and a maturity coefficient to obtain a mathematical model which is tested on all banking processes and type of risks. The new model allows an optimal assessment of residual criticality and improves the correlation rate that has become 98%.

Keywords: risk, control, banking, FMECA, criticality

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Authors: M. Bokhtiar Hasan, M. Delowar Hossain, Abu N. M. Wahid

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The principal aim of the study is to find out a way to effectively manage the agricultural risks like price volatility, weather risks, and fund shortage. To hedge price volatility, farmers sometimes make contracts with agro-traders but fail to protect themselves effectively due to not having legal framework for such contracts. The study extensively reviews existing literature and find evidence that the majority studies either deal with price volatility or weather risks. If we could address these risks through a single model, it would be more useful to both the farmers and traders. Intrinsically, the authors endeavor in this regard, and the key contribution of this study basically lies in it. Initially, we conduct a small survey aspiring to identify the shortcomings of existing contracts. Later, we propose a model encompassing forward and insurance contracts together where forward contract will be used to hedge price volatility and insurance contract will be used to protect weather risks. Contribution/Originality: The study adds to the existing literature through proposing an integrated model comprising of forward contract and crop insurance which will support both farmers and traders to cope with the agricultural risks like price volatility, weather hazards, and fund shortage. JEL Classifications: O13, Q13

Keywords: agriculture, forward contract, insurance contract, risk management, model

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Authors: Saleh Alzahrani, Halim Boussabaine

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Many of Public Private Partnership (PPP) are developed based on a public project is to be awarded to a private party within a one contractual framework. PPP project risks typically include the development and construction of a new asset as well as its operation. Certainly the most severe consequences of risks through the construction period are price and time overruns. These events are among the most generally used situation in value for money analysis risks. The sources of risk change during the time in PPP project. In traditional procurement, the public sector usually has to cover all prices suffering from these risks. At least there is plenty to suggest that price suffering is a norm in some of the projects that are delivered under traditional procurement. This paper will find the impact of exogenous risk factors into actual construction price into PPP projects. The paper will present a brief literature review on PPP risk pricing strategies and then using system dynamics (SD) to analyses of the risks associated with the estimated project price. Based on the finding from these analyses a risk pricing association model is presented and discussed. The paper concludes with thoughts for future research.

Keywords: public private partnership (PPP), risk, risk pricing, system dynamics (SD)

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Authors: Ankit Tyagi, Reet Kamal Tiwari, Naveen James

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In India, landslides are the most frequently occurring disaster in the regions of the Himalayas and the Western Ghats. The steep slopes and land use in these areas are quite apprehensive. In the recent past, many landslide hazard zonation (LHZ) works have been carried out in the Himalayas. However, the preparation of LHZ maps considering temporal factors such as seismic ground shaking, seismic amplification at surface level, and rainfall are limited. Hence this study presents a comprehensive use of the multi-criteria decision-making (MCDM) method in landslide risk assessment. In this research, we conducted both geospatial and geotechnical analysis to minimize the danger of landslides. Geospatial analysis is performed using high-resolution satellite data to produce landslide causative factors which were given weightage using the MCDM method. The geotechnical analysis includes a slope stability check, which was done to determine the potential landslide slope. The landslide risk map can provide useful information which helps people to understand the risk of living in an area.

Keywords: landslide hazard zonation, PHA, AHP, GIS

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Authors: Fatemeh Rouhi, Hadi Nassiri

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Earning forecast is a key element in economic decisions but there are some situations, such as conflicts of interest in financial reporting, complexity and lack of direct access to information has led to the phenomenon of information asymmetry among individuals within the organization and external investors and creditors that appear. The adverse selection and moral hazard in the investor's decision and allows direct assessment of the difficulties associated with data by users makes. In this regard, the role of trustees in corporate governance disclosure is crystallized that includes controls and procedures to ensure the lack of movement in the interests of the company's management and move in the direction of maximizing shareholder and company value. Therefore, the earning forecast of companies in the capital market and the need to identify factors influencing this study was an attempt to make relationship between moral hazard and corporate governance with earning forecast quality companies operating in the capital market and its impact on Earnings Forecasts quality by the company to be established. Getting inspiring from the theoretical basis of research, two main hypotheses and sub-hypotheses are presented in this study, which have been examined on the basis of available models, and with the use of Panel-Data method, and at the end, the conclusion has been made at the assurance level of 95% according to the meaningfulness of the model and each independent variable. In examining the models, firstly, Chow Test was used to specify either Panel Data method should be used or Pooled method. Following that Housman Test was applied to make use of Random Effects or Fixed Effects. Findings of the study show because most of the variables are positively associated with moral hazard with earnings forecasts quality, with increasing moral hazard, earning forecast quality companies listed on the Tehran Stock Exchange is increasing. Among the variables related to corporate governance, board independence variables have a significant relationship with earnings forecast accuracy and earnings forecast bias but the relationship between board size and earnings forecast quality is not statistically significant.

Keywords: corporate governance, earning forecast quality, moral hazard, financial sciences

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Authors: Urooj Saeed, Sajid Rashid Ahmad, Iqra Khalid, Sahar Mirza, Imtiaz Younas

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Pakistan, a flood-prone country, has experienced worst floods in the recent past which have caused extensive damage to the urban and rural areas by loss of lives, damage to infrastructure and agricultural fields. Poor flood management system in the country has projected the risks of damages as the increasing frequency and magnitude of floods are felt as a consequence of climate change; affecting national economy directly or indirectly. To combat the needs of flood emergency, this paper focuses on remotely sensed data based approach for rapid mapping and monitoring of flood extent and its damages so that fast dissemination of information can be done, from local to national level. In this research study, spatial extent of the flooding caused by heavy rains of 2014 has been mapped by using space borne data to assess the crop damages and affected population in sixteen districts of Punjab. For this purpose, moderate resolution imaging spectroradiometer (MODIS) was used to daily mark the flood extent by using Normalised Difference Water Index (NDWI). The highest flood value data was integrated with the LandScan 2014, 1km x 1km grid based population, to calculate the affected population in flood hazard zone. It was estimated that the floods covered an area of 16,870 square kilometers, with 3.0 million population affected. Moreover, to assess the flood damages, Object Based Image Analysis (OBIA) aided with spectral signatures was applied on Landsat image to attain the thematic layers of healthy (0.54 million acre) and damaged crops (0.43 million acre). The study yields that the population of Jhang district (28% of 2.5 million population) was affected the most. Whereas, in terms of crops, Jhang and Muzzafargarh are the ‘highest damaged’ ranked district of floods 2014 in Punjab. This study was completed within 24 hours of the peak flood time, and proves to be an effective methodology for rapid assessment of damages due to flood hazard

Keywords: flood hazard, space borne data, object based image analysis, rapid damage assessment

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Authors: Sherly M. A., Subhankar Karmakar, Terence Chan, Christian Rau

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Floods are one of the most frequent natural disasters, causing widespread devastation, economic damage and threat to human lives. Hydrologic impacts of climate change and intensification of urbanization are two root causes of increased flood occurrences, and recent research trends are oriented towards understanding these aspects. Due to rapid urbanization, population of cities across the world has increased exponentially leading to improperly planned developments. Climate change due to natural and anthropogenic activities on our environment has resulted in spatiotemporal changes in rainfall patterns. The combined effect of both aggravates the vulnerability of urban populations to floods. In this context, an efficient and effective flood risk management with its core component as flood risk mapping is essential in prevention and mitigation of flood disasters. Urban flood risk mapping involves zoning of an urban region based on its flood risk, which depicts the spatiotemporal pattern of frequency and severity of hazards, exposure to hazards, and degree of vulnerability of the population in terms of socio-economic, environmental and infrastructural aspects. Although vulnerability is a key component of risk, its assessment and mapping is often less advanced than hazard mapping and quantification. A synergic effort from technical experts and social scientists is vital for the effectiveness of flood risk management programs. Despite an increasing volume of quality research conducted on urban flood risk, a comprehensive multidisciplinary approach towards flood risk mapping still remains neglected due to which many of the input parameters and definitions of flood risk concepts are imprecise. Thus, the objectives of this review are to introduce and precisely define the relevant input parameters, concepts and terms in urban flood risk mapping, along with its methodology, current status and limitations. The review also aims at providing thought-provoking insights to potential future researchers and flood management professionals.

Keywords: flood risk, flood hazard, flood vulnerability, flood modeling, urban flooding, urban flood risk mapping

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Authors: G. O. Avwiri, E. O. Agbalagba, C. P. Ononugbo

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Activity concentrations of natural radionuclides (226Ra, 232Th and 40K) in the soil, sediment and water of oil producing communities in Delta and Rivers States were determined using γ-ray spectrometry. The mean soil/sediment activity concentration of 226Ra, 232Th and 40K in onshore west in Delta state is 40.2±5.1Bqkg-1, 29.9±4.2Bqkg-1 and 361.5±20.0Bqkg-1 respectively, the corresponding values obtained in onshore east1 of Rivers state is 20.9±2.8Bqkg-1, 19.4±2.5Bqkg-1and 260.0±14.1Bqkg-1 respectively. While the mean activity concentration of 226Ra, 232Th and 40K in onshore east2 of Rivers state is 29.3±3.5Bqkg-1, 21.6±2.6Bqkg-1 and 262.1±14.6Bqkg-1 respectively. These values obtained show enhanced NORMs but are well within the world range. All the radiation hazard indices examined in soil have mean values lower than their maximum permissible limits. In drinking water, the obtained average values of226Ra, 228Ra and 40K is 8.4±0.9, 7.3±0.7 and 29.9±2.2Bql-1 respectively for well water, 4.5±0.6, 5.1±0.4 and 20.9±2.0Bql-1 respectively for borehole water and 11.3±1.2, 8.5±0.7 and 32.4±3.7Bql-1 respectively for river water in onshore west. For onshore east1, average activity concentration of 226Ra, 228Ra and 40K is 8.3±1.0, 8.6±1.1 and 39.6±3.3Bql-1 respectively for well water, 3.8±0.8, 4.9±0.6 and 35.7±4.1Bql-1 respectively for borehole water and 5.5±0.8, 5.4±0.7 and 36.9±3.8Bql-1 respectively for river water. While in onshore east2 average value of 226Ra, 228Ra and 40K is 10.1±1.1, 8.3±1.0 and 50.0±3.9Bql-1 respectively for well water, 4.7±0.9, 4.0±0.4 and 28.8±3.0Bql-1 respectively for borehole water and 7.7±0.9, 6.1±0.8 and 27.1±2.9Bql-1 respectively for river water and the average activity concentrations in the produced water226Ra, 228Ra and 40K is 5.182.14Bql-1, 6.042.48Bql-1 and 48.7813.67Bql-1 respectively. These values obtained are well above world average values of 1.0, 0.1 and 10Bql-1 for 226Ra, 228Ra and 40K respectively, those of the control site values and most reported values around the world. Though the hazard indices (Raeq, Hex, Hin) examined in water is still within the tolerable level, the committed effective dose estimated are above ICPR 0.1 mSvy-1 permissible limits. The overall results show that soil and sediment in the area are safe radiologically, but the result indicates some level of water pollution in the studied area.

Keywords: radioactivity, soil, sediment and water, Niger Delta, gamma detector

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Authors: Varun Joshi, M. S. Rawat

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The Indian Himalayan Region (IHR) is inherently fragile and susceptible to landslide hazard due to its extremely weak geology, highly rugged topography and heavy monsoonal rainfall. One of the most common hazards in the IHR is landslide, and this event is particularly frequent in Himalayan states of India i.e. Jammu & Kashmir, Himachal Pradesh, Uttarakhand, Sikkim, Manipur and Arunachal Pradesh. Landslides are mostly triggered by extreme rainfall events but the incidence increases during monsoon months (June to September). Natural slopes which are otherwise stable but they get destabilized due to anthropogenic activities like construction of various developmental activities and deforestation. These activities are required to fulfill the developmental needs and upliftment of societal status in the region. Landslides also trigger during major earthquakes and reported most observable and damaging phenomena. Studies indicate that the landslide phenomenon has increased many folds due to developmental activities in Himalayan region. Gradually increasing and devastating consequences of landslides turned into one of the most important hydro-geological hazards in Himalayan states especially in Uttarakhand and Sikkim states of India. The recent most catastrophic rainfall in June 2013 in Uttarakhand lead to colossal loss of life and property. The societal damage due to this incident is still to be recovered even after three years. Sikkim earthquake of September 2011 is witnessed for triggering of large number of coseismic landslides. The rescue and relief team faced huge problem in helping the trapped villagers in remote locations of the state due to road side blockade by landslides. The recent past incidences of landslides in Uttarakhand, as well as Sikkim states, created a new domain of research in terms of understanding the phenomena of landslide and management of disaster in such situation. Every year at many locations landslides trigger which force dwellers to either evacuate their dwelling or lose their life and property. The communication and transportation networks are also severely affected by landslides at several locations. Many times the drinking water supply disturbed and shortage of daily need household items reported during monsoon months. To minimize the severity of landslide in IHR requires in-depth research and developmental planning. For most of the areas in the present study, landslide hazard zonation is done on 1:50,000 scale. The land use planning maps on extensive basis are not available. Therefore, there is a need of large-scale landslide hazard zonation and land use planning maps. If the scientist conduct research on desired aspects and their outcome of research is utilized by the government in developmental planning then the incidents of landslide could be minimized, subsequent impact on society, life and property would be reduced. Along with the scientific research, there is another need of awareness generation in the region for stake holders and local dwellers to combat with the landslide hazard, if triggered in their location.

Keywords: coseismic, Indian Himalayan Region, landslide hazard zonation, Sikkim, societal, Uttarakhand

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Authors: Sasan Aryaee, Mahdi Ravanshadnia

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Naturally, any activity is associated with risk, and humans have understood this concept from very long times ago and seek to identify its factors and sources. On the one hand, proper risk management can cause problems such as delays and unforeseen costs in the development projects, temporary or permanent loss of services, getting lost or information theft, complexity and limitations in processes, unreliable information caused by rework, holes in the systems and many such problems. In the present study, a model has been presented to rank the environmental risks of oil and gas projects. The statistical population of the study consists of all executives active in the oil and gas fields, that the statistical sample is selected randomly. In the framework of the proposed method, environmental risks of oil and gas projects were first extracted, then a questionnaire based on these indicators was designed based on Likert scale and distributed among the statistical sample. After assessing the validity and reliability of the questionnaire, environmental risks of oil and gas projects were ranked using the VIKOR method of multiple-criteria decision-making. The results showed that the best options for HSE planning of oil and gas projects that caused the reduction of risks and personal injury and casualties and less than other options is costly for the project and it will add less time to the duration of implementing the project is the entering of dye to the environment when painting the generator pond and the presence of the rigger near the crane.

Keywords: ranking, multi-criteria decision making, oil and gas projects, HSEmanagement, environmental risks

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Authors: Federico Valenzuela-Beltran, Sonia E. Ruiz, Alfredo Reyes-Salazar, Juan Bojorquez

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A reliability-based methodology which uses structural demand hazard curves to consider the increment of the ductility demands of structures with tilting is proposed. The approach considers the effect of two orthogonal components of the ground motions as well as the influence of soil-structure interaction. The approach involves the calculation of ductility demand hazard curves for symmetric systems and, alternatively, for systems with different degrees of asymmetry. To get this objective, demand hazard curves corresponding to different global ductility demands of the systems are calculated. Next, Uniform Exceedance Rate Spectra (UERS) are developed for a specific mean annual rate of exceedance value. Ratios between UERS corresponding to asymmetric and to symmetric systems located in soft soil of the valley of Mexico are obtained. Results indicate that the ductility demands corresponding to tilted structures may be several times higher than those corresponding to symmetric structures, depending on several factors such as tilting angle and vibration period of structure and soil.

Keywords: asymmetric yielding, seismic performance, structural reliability, tilted structures

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Authors: Saleh Alzahrani, Halim Boussabaine

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The majority of Public Private Partnership (PPP) are developed based on the rationale that the design, construction, operation, and financing of a public project is to be awarded to a private party within a single contractual framework. PPP project risks normally include the development and construction of a new asset as well as its operation for decades. Undoubtedly the most serious consequences of risks during the construction period are price and time overruns. These events are amongst the most broadly used scenarios in value for money analysis risks. The sources of risk change over the life cycle of a PPP project. In traditional procurement, the public sector normally has to cover all price distress from these risks. At least there is plenty evidence to suggest that price distress is a norm in some of the projects that are delivered under traditional procurement. This paper will find the impact of construction risk factors into actual construction price into PPP projects. The paper will present a brief literature review on PPP risk pricing strategies, and then using system dynamics (SD) to analyses of the risks associated with the estimated project price. Based on the finding from these analyses a risk pricing association model is presented and discussed. The paper concludes with thoughts for future research.

Keywords: Public Private Partnership (PPP), Risk, Risk Pricing, System Dynamics (SD), construction price

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Authors: Werner Grommes

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The institute of occupational safety and health works in a working group for building a normative standard for illuminated warning vests and did a lot of experiments and measurements as basic work (cooperation). Intelligent car headlamps are able to suppress conventional warning vests with retro-reflective stripes as a disturbing light. Illuminated warning vests are therefore required for occupational safety. However, they must not pose any danger to the wearer or other persons. Here, the risks of the batteries (lithium types), the maximum brightness (glare) and possible interference radiation from the electronics on the implant carrier must be taken into account. The all-around visibility, as well as the required range, play an important role here. For the study, many luminance measurements of already commercially available LEDs and electroluminescent warning vests, as well as their electromagnetic interference fields and aspects of electrical safety, were measured. The results of this study showed that LED lighting is all far too bright and causes strong glare. The integrated controls with pulse modulation and switching regulators cause electromagnetic interference fields. Rechargeable lithium batteries can explode depending on the temperature range. Electroluminescence brings even more hazards. A test method was developed for the evaluation of visibility at distances of 50, 100, and 150 m, including the interview of test persons. A measuring method was developed for the detection of glare effects at close range with the assignment of the maximum permissible luminance. The electromagnetic interference fields were tested in the time and frequency ranges. A risk and hazard analysis were prepared for the use of lithium batteries. The range of values for luminance and risk analysis for lithium batteries were discussed in the standards working group. These will be integrated into the standard. This paper gives a brief overview of the topics of illuminated warning vests, which takes into account the risks and hazards for the vest wearer or others

Keywords: illuminated warning vest, optical tests and measurements, risks, hazards, optical glare effects, LED, E-light, electric luminescent

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Authors: Shih-Kuei Lin

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The characterization of the arbitrage-free dynamics of interest rates is developed in this study under the presence of Markov jump risks, when the term structure of the interest rates is modeled through simple forward rates. We consider Markov jump risks by allowing randomness in jump sizes, independence between jump sizes and jump times. The Markov jump diffusion model is used to capture empirical phenomena and to accurately describe interest jump risks in a financial market. We derive the arbitrage-free model of simple forward rates under the spot measure. Moreover, the analytical pricing formulas for a cap and a floor are derived under the forward measure when the jump size follows a lognormal distribution. In our empirical analysis, we find that the LIBOR market model with Markov jump risk better accounts for changes from/to different states and different rates.

Keywords: arbitrage-free, cap and floor, Markov jump diffusion model, simple forward rate model, volatility smile, EM algorithm

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Authors: Ezgi Nevruz, Kasirga Yildirak, Ashis SenGupta

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Comparing or ranking risks is the main motivating factor behind the human trait of making choices. Cumulative prospect theory (CPT) is a preference theory approach that evaluates perception and bias in decision making under risk and uncertainty. We aim to investigate the aggregate claims of different risk classes in terms of their comparability and amenability to ordering when the impact of risk perception is considered. For this aim, we prioritize the aggregate claims taken as actuarial risks by using various stochastic ordering relations. In order to prioritize actuarial risks, we use stochastic relations such as stochastic dominance and stop-loss dominance that are proposed in the frame of partial order theory. We take into account the dependency of the individual claims exposed to similar environmental risks. At first, we modify the zero-utility premium principle in order to obtain a solution for the stop-loss premium under CPT. Then, we propose a stochastic stop-loss dominance of the aggregate claims and find a relation between the stop-loss dominance and the first-order stochastic dominance under the dependence assumption by using properties of the familiar as well as some emerging multivariate claim distributions.

Keywords: cumulative prospect theory, partial order theory, risk perception, stochastic dominance, stop-loss dominance

Procedia PDF Downloads 299

Authors: Érick Aragão Ribeiro, George André Pereira Thé, José Marques Soares

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Several problems in industrial supervision software development projects may lead to the delay or cancellation of projects. These problems can be avoided or contained by using identification methods, analysis and control of risks. These procedures can give an overview of the possible problems that can happen in the projects and what are the immediate solutions. Therefore, we propose a risk management method applied to the teaching and development of industrial supervision software. The method is developed through a literature review and previous projects can be divided into phases of management and have basic features that are validated with experimental research carried out by mechatronics engineering students and professionals. The management is conducted through the stages of identification, analysis, planning, monitoring, control and communication of risks. Programmers use a method of prioritizing risks considering the gravity and the possibility of occurrence of the risk. The outputs of the method indicate which risks occurred or are about to happen. The first results indicate which risks occur at different stages of the project and what risks have a high probability of occurring. The results show the efficiency of the proposed method compared to other methods, showing the improvement of software quality and leading developers in their decisions. This new way of developing supervision software helps students identify design problems, evaluate software developed and propose effective solutions. We conclude that the risk management optimizes the development of the industrial process control software and provides higher quality to the product.

Keywords: supervision software, risk management, industrial supervision, project management

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Authors: Michael Ajide Oyinloye

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The natural environment is made up of air, water and soil. The release of emission of industrial waste into anyone of the components of the environment causes pollution. Industrial pollution significantly threatens the inherent right of people, to the enjoyment of a safe and secure environment. The aim of this paper is to assess the effect of environmental pollution and health risks of residents living near Ewekoro Cement factory. The research made use of IKONOS imagery for Geographical Information System (GIS) to buffer and extract buildings that are less than 1 km to the plant, within 1 km to 5 km and above 5 km to the factory. Also, a questionnaire was used to elicit information on the socio-economic factors, the effect of environmental pollution on residents and measures adopted to control industrial pollution on the residents. Findings show that most buildings that between less than 1 km and 1 km to 5 km to the factory have high health risk in the study area. The study recommended total relocation for the residents of the study area to reduce risk health problems.

Keywords: environmental pollution, health risk, GIS, satellite imagery, ewekoro

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Authors: Hazem M. Al-Mofleh

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In this paper, a new four-parameter univariate continuous distribution called the Normal-Generalized Hyperbolic Secant Distribution (NGHS) is defined and studied. Some general and structural distributional properties are investigated and discussed, including: central and non-central n-th moments and incomplete moments, quantile and generating functions, hazard function, Rényi and Shannon entropies, shapes: skewed right, skewed left, and symmetric, modality regions: unimodal and bimodal, maximum likelihood (MLE) estimators for the parameters. Finally, two real data sets are used to demonstrate empirically its flexibility and prove the strength of the new distribution.

Keywords: bimodality, estimation, hazard function, moments, Shannon’s entropy

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Authors: Ritsuko Kawasaki (Aiba), Takeshi Hiromatsu

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Management is required to understand all information security risks within an organization, and to make decisions on which information security risks should be treated in what level by allocating how much amount of cost. However, such decision-making is not usually easy, because various measures for risk treatment must be selected with the suitable application levels. In addition, some measures may have objectives conflicting with each other. It also makes the selection difficult. Moreover, risks generally have trends and it also should be considered in risk treatment. Therefore, this paper provides the extension of the model proposed in the previous study. The original model supports the selection of measures by applying a combination of weighted average method and goal programming method for multi-objective analysis to find an optimal solution. The extended model includes the notion of weights to the risks, and the larger weight means the priority of the risk.

Keywords: information security risk treatment, selection of risk measures, risk acceptance, multi-objective optimization

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Authors: Alfred Kamate Siviri, Angelus Mafikiri Tsongo, Jean Robert Kala Kamdjoug

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Digitalization and information systems well organized have been selected as relevant measures to mitigate operational risks within organizations. Unfortunately, information system comes with new threats that can cause severe damage and quick organization lockout. This study aims to measure perceived information system risks and their effects on operational risks within the microfinance institution in D.R. Congo. Also, the factors influencing the operational risk are identified, and the link between operational risk with other risks and performance is to be assessed. The study proposes a research model drawn on the combination of Resources-Based-View, dynamic capabilities, the agency theory, the Information System Security Model, and social theories of risk. Therefore, we suggest adopting a mixed methods research with the sole aim of increasing the literature that already exists on perceived operational risk assessment and its link with other risk and performance, a focus on IT risk.

Keywords: Democratic Republic Congo, information system risk, microfinance performance, operational risk

Procedia PDF Downloads 195

Authors: Dorota Rucińska

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This theoretical paper combines the academic discourse regarding a specific part of dark tourism. Based on the literature analysis, distinction of natural disasters in thanatourism was investigated, which is connected with dynamic geographical conditions. Natural disasters used to play an important role in social life by their appearance in myths and religions. Nowadays, tourists pursuing natural hazards can be divided into three groups: Those interested in natural hazards themselves; those interested in landscape deformation and experiencing emotions shortly after extreme events - natural disasters - occur; and finally those interested in historic places log after an extreme event takes place. An important element of the natural disaster tourism is quick access to information on the location of a disaster and the destination of a potential excursion. Natural disaster tourism suits alternative tourism, yet it is opposed culture tourism, and sustainable tourism. The paper compares types and groups of tourists. It also considers the contradictions that describe dualism, which exists in dark tourism.

Keywords: dark tourism, dualism, natural disasters, natural hazards, thanatoursim

Procedia PDF Downloads 354

Authors: Nimrod Bantigue

Abstract:

The Department of Education is continuously providing safe teaching-learning facilities and hazard-free environments to the learners. To achieve this goal, teachers’ awareness of DepEd’s DRRM programs and activities is extremely important; thus, this descriptive correlational quantitative study was conceptualized. This research answered four questions on the profile and level of awareness of the 153 teacher respondents of Oriental Mindoro National High School for the academic year 2018-2019. Stratified proportional sampling was employed, and both descriptive and inferential statistics were utilized to treat data. The findings revealed that the majority of the teachers at OMNHS are female and are in the age bracket of 20-40. Most are married and pursue graduate studies. They have moderate awareness of the Department of Education’s DRRM programs and activities in terms of assessment of risks activities, planning activities, implementation activities during disaster and evaluation and monitoring activities with 3.32, 3.12, 3.40 and 3.31 as computed means, respectively. Further, the result showed a significant relationship between the profile of the respondents such as age, civil status and educational attainment and the level of awareness. On the contrary, sex does not have a significant relationship with the level of awareness. The Support School DRRM program with Utilization Guide on School DRRM Manual was proposed to increase, improve and strengthen the weakest areas of awareness rated in each DRRM activity, such as assessment of risks, planning, and implementation during disasters and monitoring and evaluation.

Keywords: awareness, management, monitoring, risk reduction

Procedia PDF Downloads 183

Authors: E. Harrer, M. Mauerhofer, T. Werginz

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As a result of intensive competition, the building sector is suffering from a high degree of rivalry. Furthermore, there can be observed an unbalanced distribution of project risks. Clients are aimed to shift their own risks into the sphere of the constructors or planners. The consequence of this is that the number of conflicts between the involved parties is inordinately high or even increasing; an alternative approach to counter on that developments are cooperative project forms in the construction sector. This research compares conventional contract models and models with partnering agreements to examine the influence on project risks by an early integration of the involved parties. The goal is to show up deviations in different project stages from the design phase to the project transfer phase. These deviations are evaluated by a survey of experts from the three spheres: clients, contractors and planners. By rating the influence of the participants on specific risk factors it is possible to identify factors which are relevant for a smooth project execution.

Keywords: building projects, contract models, partnering, project risks

Procedia PDF Downloads 246