Search results for: link growth probability

Authors: Zviad Ghadua, Biswa Bhattacharya

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The Flash Flood Guidance (FFG) provides the rainfall amount of a given duration necessary to cause flooding. The approach is based on the development of rainfall-runoff curves, which helps us to find out the rainfall amount that would cause flooding. An alternative approach, mostly experimented with Italian Alpine catchments, is based on determining threshold discharges from past events and on finding whether or not an oncoming flood has its magnitude more than some critical discharge thresholds found beforehand. Both approaches suffer from large uncertainties in forecasting flash floods as, due to the simplistic approach followed, the same rainfall amount may or may not cause flooding. This uncertainty leads to the question whether a probabilistic model is preferable over a deterministic one in forecasting flash floods. We propose the use of a Bayesian probabilistic approach in flash flood forecasting. A prior probability of flooding is derived based on historical data. Additional information, such as antecedent moisture condition (AMC) and rainfall amount over any rainfall thresholds are used in computing the likelihood of observing these conditions given a flash flood has occurred. Finally, the posterior probability of flooding is computed using the prior probability and the likelihood. The variation of the computed posterior probability with rainfall amount and AMC presents the suitability of the approach in decision making in an uncertain environment. The methodology has been applied to the Posina basin in Italy. From the promising results obtained, we can conclude that the Bayesian approach in flash flood forecasting provides more realistic forecasting over the FFG.

Keywords: flash flood, Bayesian, flash flood guidance, FFG, forecasting, Posina

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Authors: Francis Mugabi, Kevin Duffy, Joseph J. Y. T Mugisha, Obiora Collins

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Bluetongue virus (BTV) has 27 serotypes, with some of them coexisting in patchy (different) environments, which make its control difficult. Wind-aided midge movement is a known mechanism in the spread of BTV. However, its effects on the probability of coexistence of multiple BTV serotypes are not clear. Deterministic and stochastic models for r BTV serotypes in n discrete patches connected by midge and/or cattle movement are formulated and analyzed. For the deterministic model without midge and cattle movement, using the comparison principle, it is shown that if the patch reproduction number R0 < 1, i=1,2,...,n, j=1,2,...,r, all serotypes go extinct. If R^j_i0>1, competitive exclusion takes place. Using numerical simulations, it is shown that when the n patches are connected by midge movement, coexistence takes place. To account for demographic and movement variability, the deterministic model is transformed into a continuous-time Markov chain stochastic model. Utilizing a multitype branching process, it is shown that the midge movement can have a large effect on the probability of coexistence of multiple BTV serotypes. The probability of coexistence can be brought to zero when the control interventions that directly kill the adult midges are applied. These results indicate the significance of wind-aided midge movement and vector control interventions on the coexistence and control of multiple BTV serotypes in patchy environments.

Keywords: bluetongue virus, coexistence, multiple serotypes, midge movement, branching process

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Authors: Fryanto Anugrah Rhamdhani Rhamdhani, Hana Riana Permatasari

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The aim of this study analyzes the inclusive of economic growth and analyzes the inclusive of economic growth determinant in regency and city (West Java Province). The background this study Economic Growth can do not afford to reduce poverty, Disparity and expand The Workforce. Referring Central Bureau Of Statistic West Java Province report in 2015 recorded only 5 regions able reduce poverty, 3 regions able reduce Gini Ratio and 7 regions able Workforce Absorption, meanwhile, 11 regions was improved Economic Growth. The Inclusive of Economic Growth definition based on various literature means the quality Economic Growth able reduce Poverty, Gini Ratio, and Workforce absorption. This study adopted the measurement Inclusive Economic of Growth Klassen and analyzes factor in Term Reducing Poverty, Gini Ratio, and the workforce Absorption. Data used panels data composite time series and cross-section including 25 regency and cities regions from Central Bureau Of Statistic West Java Province during 2014-2015. As a result, the measurement inclusive economic of growth Klassen 2014-2015 from 25 regency and cities shows all region does not inclusive reducing Poverty, only 2 regions able reduce Gini Ratio and 3 regions able increase Workforce absorption. Different from the result the measurement Inclusive Economic of Growth for workforce absorption, several regions shows a negative coefficient indicates Economic Growth decline Workforce absorption. The outcome of this study analyzes factor of Inclusive economic of Growth, so that give recommendations for government achieve inclusive economic of growth toward Sustainable Economic. Can be Concluded above low-quality Economic Growth, that due to all region does not inclusive Economic of Growth.

Keywords: inclusive economic growth, Gini ratio, poverty, workforce

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Authors: Petr Gurný

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One of the most important tasks in the risk management is the correct determination of probability of default (PD) of particular financial subjects. In this paper a possibility of determination of financial institution’s PD according to the credit-scoring models is discussed. The paper is divided into the two parts. The first part is devoted to the estimation of the three different models (based on the linear discriminant analysis, logit regression and probit regression) from the sample of almost three hundred US commercial banks. Afterwards these models are compared and verified on the control sample with the view to choose the best one. The second part of the paper is aimed at the application of the chosen model on the portfolio of three key Czech banks to estimate their present financial stability. However, it is not less important to be able to estimate the evolution of PD in the future. For this reason, the second task in this paper is to estimate the probability distribution of the future PD for the Czech banks. So, there are sampled randomly the values of particular indicators and estimated the PDs’ distribution, while it’s assumed that the indicators are distributed according to the multidimensional subordinated Lévy model (Variance Gamma model and Normal Inverse Gaussian model, particularly). Although the obtained results show that all banks are relatively healthy, there is still high chance that “a financial crisis” will occur, at least in terms of probability. This is indicated by estimation of the various quantiles in the estimated distributions. Finally, it should be noted that the applicability of the estimated model (with respect to the used data) is limited to the recessionary phase of the financial market.

Keywords: credit-scoring models, multidimensional subordinated Lévy model, probability of default

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Authors: Temesgen Yaekob Ergano, Sure Pulla Rao

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The study on financial development and economic growth in Sub-Saharan Africa utilizes System GMM analysis to investigate the relationship between financial development indicators and economic performance in the region. The research findings reveal significant impacts of various financial indicators on economic growth, such as the positive influence of bank liquid reserves to bank assets ratio (R/A), trade openness, and the broad money to total reserves ratio (M/R) on the economic growth of Sub-Saharan Africa. Additionally, the study highlights the negative impact of domestic credit provided to the private sector by banks (D_bank) on economic growth, emphasizing the importance of prudent credit allocation to avoid over-indebtedness and financial crises. These results provide valuable insights for policymakers aiming to foster sustainable economic growth in the region by leveraging financial development effectively.

Keywords: financial development, economic growth, Sub-Saharan Africa, system GMM analysis, financial indicators.

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Authors: Saila Tykkyläinen

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The purpose of this study is to pave the way for more focused accumulation of knowledge on social enterprise growth. The body of research touching upon the phenomenon is somewhat fragmented. In order to make an effort to create a solid common ground, this study draws from the theoretical starting points and guidelines developed within small firm growth research. By analyzing their use in social enterprise growth literature, the study offers insights on whether the proven theories and concepts from small firm context could be more systematically applied when investigating growth of social enterprises. Towards this end, the main findings from social enterprise growth research are classified under the three research streams on growth. One of them focuses on factors of growth, another investigates growth as a process and the third is interested in outcomes of growth. During the analysis, special attention is paid on exploring how social mission of the company and the pursuit of augmenting its social impact are dealt within those lines of research. The next step is to scrutinize and discuss some of the central building blocks of growth research, namely the unit of analysis, conceptualization of a firm and operationalizing growth, in relation to social enterprise studies. It appears that the social enterprise growth literature stresses the significance of 'social' both as a main driver and principle outcome of growth. As for the growth process, this emphasis is manifested by special interest in strategies and models tailored to disseminate social impact beyond organizational limits. Consequently, this study promotes more frequent use of business activity as a unit of analysis in the social enterprise context. Most of the times, it is their products, services or programs with which social enterprises and entrepreneurs aim to create the impact. Thus the focus should be placed on activities rather than on organizations. The study also seeks to contribute back to the small firm growth research. Even though the recommendation to think of business activities as an option for unit of analysis stems from there, it is all too rarely used. Social entrepreneurship makes a good case for testing and developing the approach further.

Keywords: conceptual study, growth, scaling, social enterprise

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Authors: Khalid Yousuf Ahmed

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At the beginning of growth period, East Asian countries achieved impressive economic growth for the decades. They transformed from agricultural economy toward industrialization and contributed to dynamic structural transformation. The achievements were driven by government-led development policies that implemented effective innovation policy to boost technological capability of local firms. Recently, most Sub-Saharan African have been showing sustainable growth. Exceptionally, Ethiopia has been recording double-digit growth for a decade. Hence, Ethiopia has claimed to follow the footstep of East Asia development model. The study is going to examine whether Ethiopia can replicate innovation and economic growth model of East Asia by using Japan, Taiwan, South Korea and China as a case to illustrate their model of growth. This research will be based on empirical data gathering and extended theory of national innovation system and economic growth theory. Moreover, the methodology is based on Knowledge Assessment Methodology (KAM) and also employing cross-countries regression analysis. The results explained that there is a significant relationship between innovation indicators and economic growth in East Asian countries while the relationship is non-existing for Ethiopia except implementing similar policies and achieving similar growth trend. Therefore, Ethiopia needs to introduce inclusive policies that give priority to improving human capital and invest on the knowledge-based economy to replicate East Asian Model.

Keywords: economic growth, FDI, endogenous growth theory, East Asia model

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Authors: Chiung-Ju Huang

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This study utilizes a frequency domain approach over the period of 1996 to 2013 to examine the causal relationship between governance and economic growth in ten Asian countries, which have different levels of democracy; classified as “Free”, “Partly Free”, and “Not Free” countries. The empirical results show that there is no Granger causality running from governance to economic growth in “Not Free” countries and “Partly Free” countries with the exception of Singapore. As for “Free” countries such as South Korea and Taiwan, there is a one-way causality running from governance to economic growth. The findings of this study indicate that policy makers in South Korea, Taiwan, and Singapore could use governance index to improve their predictions of the future economic growth.

Keywords: economic growth, frequency domain, governance, granger causality

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Authors: Hamid Abchir, Mohammed Sabak2

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We construct an infinite family of links which are both almost alternating and quasi-alternating from a given either almost alternating diagram representing a quasi-alternating link, or connected and reduced alternating tangle diagram. To do that we use what we call a dealternator extension which consists in replacing the dealternator by a rational tangle extending it. We note that all non-alternating and quasi-alternating Montesinos links can be obtained in that way. We check that all the obtained quasi-alternating links satisfy Conjecture 3.1 of Qazaqzeh et al. (JKTR 22 (6), 2013), that is the crossing number of a quasi-alternating link is less than or equal to its determinant. We also prove that the converse of Theorem 3.3 of Qazaqzeh et al. (JKTR 24 (1), 2015) is false.

Keywords: quasi-alternating links, almost alternating links, tangles, determinants

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Authors: Mohammad Noor Hisham Osman, Ahmed Razman Abdul Latiff, Zaidi Mat Daud, Zulkarnain Muhamad Sori

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The problem that Malaysian auditors do not issue going concern opinion (GC opinion) to seriously financially distressed companies is still a pressing issue. Policy makers, particularly the Financial Statement Review Committee (FSRC) of Malaysian Institute of Accountant, have raised this issue as early as in 2009. Similar problem happened in the US, UK, and many developing countries. It is important for auditors to issue GC opinion properly because such opinion is one signal about the viability of a company much needed by stakeholders. There are at least two unanswered questions or research gaps in the literature on determinants of GC opinion. Firstly, is client’s probability of failure associated with GC opinion issuance? Secondly, to what extent influential owners (management, family, and institution) moderate the association between client probability of failure and GC opinion issuance. The objective of this study is, therefore, twofold; (1) To examine the extent of the relationship between the probability of client failure and the issuance of GC opinion and (2) To examine the level of management, family, and institutional ownerships moderate the association between client probability of failure and the issuance of GC opinion. This study is quantitative in nature, and the sources of data are secondary (mainly company’s annual reports). A total of four hypotheses have been developed and tested on data accumulated from annual reports of seriously financially distressed Malaysian public listed companies. Data from 2006 to 2012 on a sample of 644 observations have been analyzed using panel logistic regression. It is found that certainty (rather than probability) of client failure affects the issuance of GC opinion. In addition, it is found that only the level of family ownership does positively moderate the relationship between client probability of failure and GC opinion issuance. This study is a contribution to auditing literature as its findings can enhance our understanding about audit quality; particularly on the variables that are associated with the issuance of GC opinion. The findings of this study shed light on the roles family owners in GC opinion issuance process, and this would open ways for the researcher to suggest measures that can be used to tackle the problem of auditors do not want to issue GC opinion to financially distressed clients. The measures to be suggested can be useful to policy makers in formulating future promulgations.

Keywords: audit quality, auditing, auditor characteristics, going concern opinion, Malaysia

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Authors: Md Fazlul Kader, Soo Young Shin

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In this paper, we consider a cognitive relay network (CRN) in which the primary receiver (PR) is protected by peak transmit power $\bar{P}_{ST}$ and/or peak interference power Q constraints. In addition, the interference effect from the primary transmitter (PT) is considered to show its impact on the performance of the CRN. We investigate the outage probability (OP) and outage capacity (OC) of the CRN by deriving closed-form expressions over Rayleigh fading channel. Results show that both the OP and OC improve by increasing the cooperative relay nodes as well as when the PT is far away from the SR.

Keywords: cognitive relay, outage, interference limited, decode-and-forward (DF)

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Authors: Mohamed Adnan Landolsi, Ali F. Almutairi

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The paper addresses the problem of line-of-sight (LOS) vs. non-line-of-sight (NLOS) propagation link identification in ultra-wideband (UWB) wireless networks, which is necessary for improving the accuracy of radiolocation and positioning applications. A LOS/NLOS likelihood hypothesis testing approach is applied based on exploiting distinctive statistical features of the channel impulse response (CIR) using parameters related to the “skewness” of the CIR and its root mean square (RMS) delay spread. A log-normal fit is presented for the probability densities of the CIR parameters. Simulation results show that different environments (residential, office, outdoor, etc.) have measurable differences in their CIR parameters’ statistics, which is then exploited in determining the nature of the propagation channels. Correct LOS/NLOS channel identification rates exceeding 90% are shown to be achievable for most types of environments. Additional improvement is also obtained by combining both CIR skewness and RMS delay statistics.

Keywords: UWB, propagation, LOS, NLOS, identification

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Authors: Takashi Shimizu, Tomoaki Hashimoto

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Recently, crystal growth technologies have made progress by the requirement for the high quality of crystal materials. To control the crystal growth dynamics actively by external forces is useuful for reducing composition non-uniformity. In this study, a control method based on model predictive control using thermal inputs is proposed for crystal growth dynamics of semiconductor materials. The control system of crystal growth dynamics considered here is governed by the continuity, momentum, energy, and mass transport equations. To establish the control method for such thermal fluid systems, we adopt model predictive control known as a kind of optimal feedback control in which the control performance over a finite future is optimized with a performance index that has a moving initial time and terminal time. The objective of this study is to establish a model predictive control method for crystal growth dynamics of semiconductor materials.

Keywords: model predictive control, optimal control, process control, crystal growth

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Authors: Yao Fu, Xingli Zhang, Jiannong Shi

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Visual working memory (VWM) capacity is the ability to maintain and manipulate short-term information which is not currently available. It is well known for its significance to form the basis of numerous cognitive abilities and its limitation in holding information. VWM span, the most popular measurable indicator, is found to reach the adult level (3-4 items) around 12-13 years’ old, while less is known about the precision development of the VWM capacity. By using simultaneously delayed responses paradigm, the present study investigates the development of VWM precision among 6-18-year-old children and young adults, besides its possible relationships with fluid intelligence and span. Results showed that precision and span both increased with age, and precision reached the maximum in 16-17 age-range. Moreover, when remembering 3 simultaneously presented items, the probability of remembering target item correlated with fluid intelligence and the probability of wrap errors (misbinding target and non-target items) correlated with age. When remembering more items, children had worse performance than adults due to their wrap errors. Compared to span, VWM precision was effective predictor of intelligence even after controlling for age. These results suggest that unlike VWM span, precision developed in a slow, yet longer fashion. Moreover, decreasing probability of wrap errors might be the main reason for the development of precision. Last, precision correlated more closely with intelligence than span in childhood and adolescence, which might be caused by the probability of remembering target item.

Keywords: fluid intelligence, precision, visual working memory, wrap errors

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Authors: Ammal M. Metwally, Walaa A. Basha, Ghada A. Abdel-Latif, Amira S. El Rifay

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Introduction: Improving breastfeeding practices does not always link to interventions relying on improving nutrition awareness and education alone but needs cultural and behavioral insights. Aim: Our study provided educational intervention through the use of the social marketing (SM) approach, which was respectable to societal norms allowing more conscious choices by mothers to achieve the maximum potential of physical growth of their infants. This study evaluated the effectiveness of the used approach for improving breastfeeding practices and the physical growth of infants aged up to 2 years. Methodology: A quasi-experimental intervention design with a posttest-only control design was done over three years duration to motivate mothers’ voluntary behavioral change toward breastfeeding promotion using SM principles: product, price, place, and promotion. The interventions targeted 464 pregnant women in their last trimester, mothers of children up to 2 years, and 1454 women in their childbearing period. Results: Most mothers showed increased awareness about the benefits of breastfeeding and became interested in breastfeeding their children outside the house using the breastfeeding cover (Gawn). Breastfeeding initiation, exclusive breastfeeding under six months, frequency of breastfeeding per day, and percentage of children who continued breastfeeding till two years were significantly increased (from 30%, 23 %, 56%, and 32% to 62 %, 47.3 %, 69 %, and 43.5 %). With the attention of the nutritional educational sessions three or more times, the majority of indicators had the most significant improvement. The females who recorded underweight results over males during the first two years of life significantly improved after the intervention (from 53.8 % to 15.4%, respectively). At the same time, females that were found to be obese before the intervention (7.7 %) became no longer obese. Conclusions: Nutritional interventions that are based on the use SM approach showed improvement for the majority of the key performance indicators. Although they doubled their value before the intervention, the majority were still modest (below 50 %). With sustained use of the SM approach, infants will achieve their maximum potential for physical growth by providing economically disadvantaged mothers with breastfeeding support.

Keywords: social marketing approach, early breastfeeding initiation, exclusive breastfeeding, responsiveness to cues of hunger and satiety, physical growth of infants

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Authors: Chi Zhang, Hua-Peng Chen

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With the increasingly demanding resources in the word, renewable and clean energy has been considered as an alternative way to replace traditional ones. Thus, one of practical examples for using wind energy is wind turbine, which has gained more attentions in recent research. Like most offshore structures, the blades, which is the most critical components of the wind turbine, will be subjected to millions of loading cycles during service life. To operate safely in marine environments, the blades are typically made from fibre reinforced composite materials to resist fatigue delamination and harsh environment. The fatigue crack development of blades is uncertain because of indeterminate mechanical properties for composite and uncertainties under offshore environment like wave loads, wind loads, and humid environments. There are three main delamination failure modes for composite blades, and the most common failure type in practices is subjected to mixed mode loading, typically a range of opening (mode 1) and shear (mode 2). However, the fatigue crack development for mixed mode cannot be predicted as deterministic values because of various uncertainties in realistic practical situation. Therefore, selecting an effective stochastic model to evaluate the mixed mode behaviour of wind turbine blades is a critical issue. In previous studies, gamma process has been considered as an appropriate stochastic approach, which simulates the stochastic deterioration process to proceed in one direction such as realistic situation for fatigue damage failure of wind turbine blades. On the basis of existing studies, various Paris Law equations are discussed to simulate the propagation of the fatigue crack growth. This paper develops a Paris model with the stochastic deterioration modelling according to gamma process for predicting fatigue crack performance in design service life. A numerical example of wind turbine composite materials is investigated to predict the mixed mode crack depth by Paris law and the probability of fatigue failure by gamma process. The probability of failure curves under different situations are obtained from the stochastic deterioration model for comparisons. Compared with the results from experiments, the gamma process can take the uncertain values into consideration for crack propagation of mixed mode, and the stochastic deterioration process shows a better agree well with realistic crack process for composite blades. Finally, according to the predicted results from gamma stochastic model, assessment strategies for composite blades are developed to reduce total lifecycle costs and increase resistance for fatigue crack growth.

Keywords: Reinforced fibre composite, Wind turbine blades, Fatigue delamination, Mixed failure mode, Stochastic process.

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Authors: Adeleke Omolade

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The study investigated the impacts of capital goods' import and human capital on the economic growth of the Sub Sahahra Africa (SSA). 30 countries were used in the Panel- ARDL analysis where economic growth is the dependent variables and capital goods' import, human capital, primary export, investment exchange rate, among others were used as the independent variables. The result from the panel analysis indicates that capital goods' import will significantly and positively influence economic growth but human capital fails to have significant positive impact on economic growth of the SSA. Earlier the trend analysis and the correlation results have shown that there is a weak association between capital goods' import and human capital in the SSA. The results offer an expository analysis that reveals that the quality of the human capital is very germane to the effective utilization of capital goods' import for the purpose of growth in a primary goods' export dominated region like the SSA.

Keywords: capital goods import, economic growth, human capital, Sub-Sahara Africa

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Authors: Abdelkader Hocine, Abdelhakim Maizia

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The exponential growth of reinforced fibers composite materials use has prompted researchers to step up their work on the prediction of their reliability. Owing to differences between the properties of the materials used for the composite, the manufacturing processes, the load combinations and types of environment, the prediction of the reliability of composite materials has become a primary task. Through failure criteria, TSAI-WU and the maximum stress, the reliability of multilayer tubular structures under pressure is the subject of this paper, where the failure probability of is estimated by the method of Monte Carlo.

Keywords: composite, design, monte carlo, tubular structure, reliability

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Authors: Bin Li

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In the era of the digital economy, digital transformation has gradually become a strategic choice for enterprise development, but there is a relative lack of systematic research from the perspective of enterprise growth. Based on the sample of Chinese A-share listed companies from 2011 to 2021, this paper constructs A digital transformation index system and an enterprise growth composite index to empirically test the impact of enterprise digital transformation on enterprise growth and its mechanism. The results show that digital transformation can significantly promote corporate growth. The mechanism analysis finds that reducing operating costs, optimizing human capital structure, promoting R&D output and improving digital innovation capability play an important intermediary role in the process of digital transformation promoting corporate growth. At the same time, the level of external digital infrastructure and the strength of organizational resilience play a positive moderating role in the process of corporate digital transformation promoting corporate growth. In addition, while further analyzing the heterogeneity of enterprises, this paper further deepens the analysis of the driving factors and digital technology support of digital transformation, as well as the three dimensions of enterprise growth, thus deepening the research depth of enterprise digital transformation.

Keywords: digital transformation, enterprise growth, digital technology, digital infrastructure, organization resilience, digital innovation

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Authors: Alain Villemeur

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The relationships between the profit share in income on the one hand and the growth rates of output and employment on the other hand have been studied for 17 advanced economies since 1961. The vast majority (98%) of annual values for the profit share fall between 20% and 40%, with an average value of 33.9%. For the 17 advanced economies, Gross Domestic Product and productivity growth rates tend to fall as the profit share in income rises. For the employment growth rates, the relationships are complex; nevertheless, over long periods (1961-2000), it appears that the more job-creating economies are Australia, Canada, and the United States; they have experienced a profit share close to 1/3. This raises a number of questions, not least the value of 1/3 for the profit share and its role in macroeconomic fundamentals. To explain these facts, an endogenous growth model is developed. This growth and distribution model reconciles the great ideas of Kaldor (economic growth as a chain reaction), of Keynes (effective demand and marginal efficiency of capital) and of Ricardo (importance of the wage-profit distribution) in an economy facing creative destruction. A production function is obtained, depending mainly on the growth of employment, the rate of net investment and the profit share in income. In theory, we show the existence of incentives: an incentive for job creation when the profit share is less than 1/3 and another incentive for job destruction in the opposite case. Thus, increasing the profit share can boost the employment growth rate until it reaches the value of 1/3; otherwise lowers the employment growth rate. Three key findings can be drawn from these considerations. The first reveals that the best GDP and productivity growth rates are obtained with a profit share of less than 1/3. The second is that maximum job growth is associated with a 1/3 profit share, given the existence of incentives to create more jobs when the profit share is less than 1/3 or to destroy more jobs otherwise. The third is the decline in performance (GDP growth rate and productivity growth rate) when the profit share increases. In conclusion, increasing the profit share in income weakens GDP growth or productivity growth as a long-term trend, contrary to the trickle-down hypothesis. The employment growth rate is maximum for a profit share in income of 1/3. All these lessons suggest macroeconomic policies considering the profit share in income.

Keywords: advanced countries, GDP growth, employment growth, profit share, economic policies

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Authors: Eric Shannon, Mark J. McGuire, John P. Parmigiani

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A hazard associated with the use of timber harvesters is chain shot. Harvester saw chain is subjected to large dynamic mechanical stresses which can cause it to fracture. The resulting open loop of saw chain can fracture a second time and create a projectile consisting of several saw-chain links referred to as a chain shot. Its high kinetic energy enables it to penetrate operator enclosures and be a significant hazard. Accurate data on projectile composition, mass, and speed are needed for the design of both operator enclosures resistant to projectile penetration and for saw chain resistant to fracture. The work presented here contributes to providing this data through the use of a test machine designed and built at Oregon State University. The machine’s enclosure is a standard shipping container. To safely contain any anticipated chain shot, the container was lined with both 9.5 mm AR500 steel plates and 50 mm high-density polyethylene (HDPE). During normal operation, projectiles are captured virtually undamaged in the HDPE enabling subsequent analysis. Standard harvester components are used for bar mounting and chain tensioning. Standard guide bars and saw chains are used. An electric motor with flywheel drives the system. Testing procedures follow ISO Standard 11837. Chain speed at break was approximately 45.5 m/s. Data was collected using both a 75 cm solid bar (Oregon 752HSFB149) and 90 cm solid bar (Oregon 902HSFB149). Saw chains used were 89 Drive Link .404”-18HX loops made from factory spools. Standard 16-tooth sprockets were used. Projectile speed was measured using both a high-speed camera and a chronograph. Both rotational and translational kinetic energy are calculated. For this study 50 chain shot events were executed. Results showed that projectiles consisted of a variety combinations of drive links, tie straps, and cutter links. Most common (occurring in 60% of the events) was a drive-link / tie-strap / drive-link combination having a mass of approximately 10.33 g. Projectile mass varied from a minimum of 2.99 g corresponding to a drive link only to a maximum of 18.91 g corresponding to a drive-link / tie-strap / drive-link / cutter-link / drive-link combination. Projectile translational speed was measured to be approximately 270 m/s and rotational speed of approximately 14000 r/s. The calculated translational and rotational kinetic energy magnitudes each average over 600 J. This study provides useful information for both timber harvester manufacturers and saw chain manufacturers to design products that reduce the hazards associated with timber harvesting.

Keywords: chain shot, timber harvesters, safety, testing

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Authors: Zeyu Zhang, Guisheng Yin, Ziying Zhang, Liguo Zhang

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This paper mainly studies the path planning method based on ant colony optimization (ACO), and proposes heuristic integration ant colony optimization (HIACO). This paper not only analyzes and optimizes the principle, but also simulates and analyzes the parameters related to the application of HIACO in path planning. Compared with the original algorithm, the improved algorithm optimizes probability formula, tabu table mechanism and updating mechanism, and introduces more reasonable heuristic factors. The optimized HIACO not only draws on the excellent ideas of the original algorithm, but also solves the problems of premature convergence, convergence to the sub optimal solution and improper exploration to some extent. HIACO can be used to achieve better simulation results and achieve the desired optimization. Combined with the probability formula and update formula, several parameters of HIACO are tested. This paper proves the principle of the HIACO and gives the best parameter range in the research of path planning.

Keywords: ant colony optimization, heuristic integration, path planning, probability formula

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Authors: Atefeh Bagherianziarat, Dana Hamplova

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The inverse social gradient in life satisfaction (LS) is a well-established research finding. To estimate the influence of inequality on LS, most of the studies have explored the effect of the objective aspects of inequality or individuals’ socioeconomic status (SES). However, relatively fewer studies have confirmed recently the significant effect of the subjective aspect of inequality or subjective socioeconomic status (SSS) on life satisfaction over and above SES. In other words, it is confirmed by some studies that individuals’ perception of their unequal status in society or SSS can moderate the impact of their absolute unequal status on their life satisfaction. Nevertheless, this newly confirmed moderating link has not been affirmed to work likewise in societies with different levels of social inequality and also for people who believe in the value of equality, at different levels. In this study, we compared the moderative influence of subjective inequality on the link between objective inequality and life satisfaction. In particular, we focus on differences across welfare state regimes based on Esping-Andersen's theory. Also, we explored the moderative role of believing in the value of equality on the link between objective and subjective inequality on LS in the given societies. Since our studied variables were measured at both individual and country levels, we applied a multilevel analysis to the European Social Survey data (round 9). The results showed that people in deferent regimes reported statistically meaningful different levels of life satisfaction that is explained to different extends by their household income and their perception of their income inequality. The findings of the study supported the previous findings of the moderator influence of perceived inequality on the link between objective inequality and LS. However, this link is different in various welfare state regimes. The results of the multilevel modeling showed that country-level subjective equality is a positive predictor for individuals’ life satisfaction, while the GINI coefficient that was considered as the indicator of absolute inequality has a smaller effect on life satisfaction. Also, country-level subjective equality moderates the confirmed link between individuals’ income and their life satisfaction. It can be concluded that both individual and country-level subjective inequality slightly moderate the effect of individuals’ income on their life satisfaction.

Keywords: individual values, life satisfaction, multilevel analysis, objective inequality, subjective inequality, welfare regimes status

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Authors: Charles Amoatey

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The issue of risk in the mining industry is a global phenomenon and the Ghanaian mining industry is not exempted. The main purpose of this study is to identify the critical risk factors affecting the mining industry. The study takes an integrated view of the mining industry by examining the contribution of various risk factors to mining project failure in Ghana. A questionnaire survey was conducted to solicit the critical risk factors from key mining practitioners. About 80 respondents from 11 mining firms participated in the survey. The study identified 22 risk factors contributing to mining project failure in Ghana. The five most critical risk factors based on both probability of occurrence and impact were: (1) unstable commodity prices, (2) inflation/exchange rate, (3) land degradation, (4) high cost of living and (5) government bureaucracy for obtaining licenses. Furthermore, the study found that risk assessment in the mining sector has a direct link with mining project sustainability. Mitigation measures for addressing the identified risk factors were discussed. The key findings emphasize the need for a comprehensive risk management culture in the entire mining industry.

Keywords: risk, assessment, mining, Ghana

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Authors: Vincenzo Russo, Rosella Giacometti

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The paper aims to assess the insurance industry's resilience under Solvency II against adverse scenarios. Starting from the economic balance sheet available under Solvency II for insurance and reinsurance undertakings, we assume that assets and liabilities follow a bivariate geometric Brownian motion (GBM). Then, using the results available under Margrabe's formula, we establish an analytical solution to calibrate the volatility of the asset-liability ratio. In such a way, we can estimate the probability of default and the probability of breaching the undertaking's Solvency Capital Requirement (SCR). Furthermore, since estimating the volatility of the Solvency Ratio became crucial for insurers in light of the financial crises featured in the last decades, we introduce a novel measure that we call Resiliency Ratio. The Resiliency Ratio can be used, in addition to the Solvency Ratio, to evaluate the insurance industry's resilience in case of adverse scenarios. Finally, we introduce a simplified stress test tool to evaluate the economic balance sheet under stressed conditions. The model we propose is featured by analytical tractability and fast calibration procedure where only the disclosed data available under the Solvency II public reporting are needed for the calibration. Using the data published regularly by the European Insurance and Occupational Pensions Authority (EIOPA) in an aggregated form by country, an empirical analysis has been performed to calibrate the model and provide the related results at the country level.

Keywords: Solvency II, solvency ratio, volatility of the asset-liability ratio, probability of default, probability to breach the SCR, resilience ratio, stress test

Procedia PDF Downloads 56

Authors: Maimuna Nontji

Abstract:

The life cycle of rice plant has three phases of growth; they are the vegetative, reproductive and maturation phase. They greatly affect the life of dynamics metanotrof bacterial as reducer methane emissions in the rice field, both of population and on the rate of growth. The aim of this study was to analyze the population and growth rate of methanotrof isolates which has been isolated in previous studies. Isolates were taken at all the life cycle of rice plant. Population of analysis was conducted by standard plate count method and growth rate was analysed by logarithmic calculation. The results showed that each isolate varied in population and growth rate. The highest population was obtained in the isolates Gowa Methanotrof Reproductive (GMR 8) about 7.06 x 10 11 cfu / ml on 3 days of incubation and the lowest population was obtained in the Gowa Methanotrof Maturation (GMP 5) about 0.27 x 10 11 cfu / ml on 7 day of incubation. Some isolate were demonstrated in long growth rate about 5 days of incubation and another are 3 days.

Keywords: emission, methanotrof, methane, population

Procedia PDF Downloads 423

Authors: Ahmed M. Eed, Adam H. Burgoyne

Abstract:

Jojoba (Simmondsia chinensis (Link) Schneider), is a desert shrub which tolerates saline, alkyle soils and drought. The seeds contain a characteristic liquid wax of economic importance in industry as a machine lubricant and cosmetics. A major problem in seed propagation is that jojoba is a dioecious plant whose sex is not easily determined prior to flowering (3-4 years from germination). To overcome this phenomenon, asexual propagation using vegetative methods such as cutting can be used. This research was conducted to find out the effect of different Plant Growth Regulators (PGRs) and rooting media on Jojoba rhizogenesis. An experiment was carried out in a Factorial Completely Randomized Design (FCRD) with three replications, each with sixty cuttings per replication in fiberglass house of Natural Jojoba Corporation at Yemen. The different rooting media used were peat moss + perlite + vermiculite (1:1:1), peat moss + perlite (1:1) and peat moss + sand (1:1). Plant materials used were semi-hard wood cuttings of jojoba plants with length of 15 cm. The cuttings were collected in the month of June during 2012 and 2013 from the sub-terminal growth of the mother plants of Amman farm and introduced to Yemen. They were wounded, treated with Indole butyric acid (IBA), α-naphthalene acetic acid (NAA) or Indole-3-acetic acid (IAA) all @ 4000 ppm (part per million) and cultured on different rooting media under intermittent mist propagation conditions. IBA gave significantly higher percentage of rooting (66.23%) compared to NAA and IAA in all media used. However, the lowest percentage of rooting (5.33%) was recorded with IAA in the medium consisting of peat moss and sand (1:1). No significant difference was observed at all types of PGRs used with rooting media in respect of root length. Maximum number of roots was noticed in medium consisting of peat moss, perlite and vermiculite (1:1:1); peat moss and perlite (1:1) and peat moss and sand (1:1) using IBA, NAA and IBA, respectively. The interaction among rooting media was statistically significant with respect to rooting percentage character. Similarly, the interactions among PGRs were significant in terms of rooting percentage and also root length characters. The results demonstrated suitability of propagation of jojoba plants by semi-hard wood cuttings.

Keywords: cutting, IBA, Jojoba, propagation, rhizogenesis

Procedia PDF Downloads 321

Authors: Osman Kök, İlhami̇ Tüzün, Yaşar Aluç

Abstract:

This study was conducted to explore the effect of direct current (DC) applications on the growth of microalgae Chlorella vulgaris KKU71, isolated from highly saline freshwater. Experiments were implemented based upon the cross-combinations of both the intensity and duration of electric applications, generating a full factorial design of 10V, 20V, 30V, and 5s, 30s, 60s, respectively. Growth parameters of cultures were monitored on Optical Density (OD), Cell Count (CC), Chlorophyll-a, b (Chl-a, b), and Total Carotenoids (TCar). All DC-assisted treatments stimulated the growth and thus led to higher values of growth parameters such as OD, CC, Chl-a, and TCar. Monotonically increasing with the intensity and duration of DC applications, wet and dry biomass yields of the harvested algae reached their highest level at 30V-60s in all sets of treatments. In addition, this increase between DC applications was listed as C(control)<10V<20V<30V and C<5s<30s<60s. As a result, direct current applications increased the biomass.

Keywords: Chlorella Vulgaris, direct current, growth, biomass

Procedia PDF Downloads 112

Authors: Ali Reza Mirzagoltabar Roshan, H. Ahmadi Taleshian, A. Eliasi

Abstract:

This paper examines the effects of viscous and viscoelastic dampers as an efficient technique for seismic pounding mitigation. To aim that, 15 steel frame models with different numbers of stories and bays and also with different types of ductility were analyzed under 10 different earthquake records for assigned values of link damping and stiffness and the most suitable values of damper parameters (damping and stiffness) are presented. Moreover, it is demonstrated that viscous dampers can perform as efficiently as viscoelastic alternative with a more economical aspect for pounding mitigation purposes.

Keywords: adjacent buildings, separation distance, seismic pounding mitigation, viscoelastic link

Procedia PDF Downloads 300

Authors: Rukhsana Kausar, Issam Malki

Abstract:

The integration and assimilation of ethnic minority immigrants (EMIs) and their subsequent generations remains a serious unsettled issue in most of the host countries. This study conducts the labour market gender analysis to investigate specifically whether second generation of ethnic minority immigrants in the UK is gaining access to professional and managerial employment and advantaged occupational positions on par with their native counterparts. The data used to examine the labour market achievements of EMIs is taken from Labour Force Survey (LFS) for the period 2014-2018. We apply a multivalued treatment under ignorability as proposed by Cattaneo (2010), which refers to treatment effects under the assumptions of (i) selection – on – observables and (ii) common support. We report estimates of Average Treatment Effect (ATE), Average Treatment Effect on the Treated (ATET), and Potential Outcomes Means (POM) using three estimators, including the Regression Adjustment (RA), Augmented Inverse Probability Weighting (AIPW) and Inverse Probability Weighting- Regression Adjustment (IPWRA). We consider two cases: the case with four categories where the first-generation natives are the base category, the second case combine all natives as a base group. Our findings suggest the following. Under Case 1, the estimated probabilities and differences across groups are consistently similar and highly significant. As expected, first generation natives have the highest probability for higher career attainment among both men and women. The findings also suggest that first generation immigrants perform better than the remaining two groups, including the second-generation natives and immigrants. Furthermore, second generation immigrants have higher probability to attain higher professional career, while this is lower for a managerial career. Similar conclusions are reached under Case 2. That is to say that both first – generation and second – generation immigrants have a lower probability for higher career and managerial attainment. First – generation immigrants are found to perform better than second – generation immigrants.

Keywords: immigrnats, second generation, occupational attainment, ethnicity

Procedia PDF Downloads 85