Search results for: fuzzy probability score

Authors: Narupon Kunbootsri, J. Kraipoj, K. Phandech, P. Sirasaporn

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Physiotherapy is one of the treatments for frozen shoulder but there was no data about the treatment of physiotherapy. Moreover, it is question about onset of symptom before physiotherapy program and obtaining physical modalities and delayed start physiotherapy program lead to delayed improvement. Thus the aim of this study was to investigate physiotherapy program for frozen shoulder on pain score, onset of symptom and obtaining physical modalities. A retrospective study design was conducted. 182 medical records of patients with frozen shoulder were reviewed. These frozen shoulders were treated at physiotherapy unit, department of Rehabilitation last 3 years (January, 2014- December, 2016). The data consist of onset of symptom, pain score and obtaining physical modalities were recorded. There was a statistically significant improve in pain score, pretreatment score mean 7.24±1.52 and the last follow up pain score mean 3.88± 1.0 [mean difference 3.18 with 95%CI were [2.45- 3.92]. In addition, the onset of symptoms was 145 days before obtaining physiotherapy program. The physical modalities used frequently were hot pack 14.8% and ultrasound diathermy 13.7%. In conclusion, the retrospective study show physiotherapy program including, hot pack and ultrasound diathermy seem to be useful for frozen shoulder in term of pain score. But onset of symptom is too long to start physiotherapy programs.

Keywords: frozen shoulder, physiotherapy, pain score, onset of symptom, physical modality

Procedia PDF Downloads 148

Authors: Caio Marcelo Nunes, Anderson da Silva Soares, Gustavo Teodoro Laureano, Clarimar Jose Coelho

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This paper presents a methodology to pixel recognition in aerial images using fuzzy $c$-means algorithm. This algorithm is a alternative to recognize areas considering uncertainties and inaccuracies. Traditional clustering technics are used in recognizing of multispectral images of earth's surface. This technics recognize well-defined borders that can be easily discretized. However, in the real world there are many areas with uncertainties and inaccuracies which can be mapped by clustering algorithms that use fuzzy sets. The methodology presents in this work is applied to multispectral images obtained from Landsat-5/TM satellite. The pixels are joined using the $c$-means algorithm. After, a classification process identify the types of surface according the patterns obtained from spectral response of image surface. The classes considered are, exposed soil, moist soil, vegetation, turbid water and clean water. The results obtained shows that the fuzzy clustering identify the real type of the earth's surface.

Keywords: aerial images, fuzzy clustering, image processing, pattern recognition

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Authors: Jinming Ma, Tianbing Xia, Janusz Getta

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This paper presents the application of fuzzy set theory to implement of mobile advertisement anti-fraud systems. Mobile anti-fraud is a method aiming to identify mobile advertisement fraudsters. One of the main problems of mobile anti-fraud is the lack of evidence to prove a user to be a fraudster. In this paper, we implement an application by using fuzzy set theory to demonstrate how to detect cheaters. The advantage of our method is that the hardship in detecting fraudsters in small data samples has been avoided. We achieved this by giving each user a suspicious degree showing how likely the user is cheating and decide whether a group of users (like all users of a certain APP) together to be fraudsters according to the average suspicious degree. This makes the process more accurate as the data of a single user is too small to be predictable.

Keywords: mobile internet, advertisement, anti-fraud, fuzzy set theory

Procedia PDF Downloads 148

Authors: Diego Saqui, José H. Saito, José R. Campos, Lúcio A. de C. Jorge

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Hyperspectral images and remote sensing are important for many applications. A problem in the use of these images is the high volume of data to be processed, stored and transferred. Dimensionality reduction techniques can be used to reduce the volume of data. In this paper, an approach to band selection based on clustering algorithms is presented. This approach allows to reduce the volume of data. The proposed structure is based on Fuzzy C-Means (or K-Means) and NWHFC algorithms. New attributes in relation to other studies in the literature, such as kurtosis and low correlation, are also considered. A comparison of the results of the approach using the Fuzzy C-Means and K-Means with different attributes is performed. The use of both algorithms show similar good results but, particularly when used attributes variance and kurtosis in the clustering process, however applicable in hyperspectral images.

Keywords: band selection, fuzzy c-means, k-means, hyperspectral image

Procedia PDF Downloads 372

Authors: Thidathit Prachanukool, Chaiyaporn Yuksen, Welawat Tienpratarn, Sorravit Savatmongkorngul, Panvilai Tangkulpanich, Chetsadakon Jenpanitpong, Yuranan Phootothum, Malivan Phontabtim, Promphet Nuanprom

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Background: Ruptured appendicitis has a high morbidity and mortality and requires immediate surgery. The Alvarado Score is used as a tool to predict the risk of acute appendicitis, but there is no such score for predicting rupture. This study aimed to developed the prediction score to determine the likelihood of ruptured appendicitis in an Asian population. Methods: This study was diagnostic, retrospectively cross-sectional and exploratory model at the Emergency Medicine Department in Ramathibodi Hospital between March 2016 and March 2018. The inclusion criteria were age >15 years and an available pathology report after appendectomy. Clinical factors included gender, age>60 years, right lower quadrant pain, migratory pain, nausea and/or vomiting, diarrhea, anorexia, fever>37.3°C, rebound tenderness, guarding, white blood cell count, polymorphonuclear white blood cells (PMN)>75%, and the pain duration before presentation. The predictive model and prediction score for ruptured appendicitis was developed by multivariable logistic regression analysis. Result: During the study period, 480 patients met the inclusion criteria; of these, 77 (16%) had ruptured appendicitis. Five independent factors were predictive of rupture, age>60 years, fever>37.3°C, guarding, PMN>75%, and duration of pain>24 hours to presentation. A score > 6 increased the likelihood ratio of ruptured appendicitis by 3.88 times. Conclusion: Using the Ramathibodi Welawat Ruptured Appendicitis Score. (RAMA WeRA Score) developed in this study, a score of > 6 was associated with ruptured appendicitis.

Keywords: predictive model, risk score, ruptured appendicitis, emergency room

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Authors: Morteza Khorrami

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The logic as an intellectual infrastructure plays an essential role in the Islamic sciences. Hence, there are a few of the verses of the Holy Quran that their interpretation is not possible due to lack of proper logic. In many verses in the Quran, argument and the respondent has requested from the audience that shows the logic rule is in the Quran. The paper which use a descriptive and analytic method, tries to show the role of logic in understanding of the Quran reasoning methods and display some of Quranic statements with mathematical symbols and point that we can help these symbols for interesting and interpretation and answering to some questions and doubts. In this paper, this problem has been mentioned that the Quran did not use two-valued logic (Aristotelian) in all cases, but the fuzzy logic can also be searched in the Quran.

Keywords: aristotelian logic, fuzzy logic, interpretation, Holy Quran

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Authors: Issam M Hajjaji, Adel Tajoury, Salah R Benhamid

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The MENA region has the highest prevalence of diabetes in the world. Various risk scores were developed, not all appropriate locally. The objective of this study is to apply the FINDRISC Score to adult Libyan males to determine its significance, sensitivity, specificity and Positive Predictive Values as an initial screening tool for type 2 diabetes, and suggest a cut-off point. Methods: 600 subjects answered the questionnaire at their place of work, and their waist, weight, height & BP were measured. Thereafter, after excluding those with known diabetes, an Oral Glucose Tolerance Test was done. Results: 414 subjects aged 19-78 completed the questionnaire and tests. 35 (8.4%) had impaired glucose tolerance (IGT) and 13 (3.1%) had diabetes (DM). The AUC-ROC for IGT was 0.614 (95% CI: 0.527-0.701), for DM 0.810 (95% CI: 0.709-0.911) and for both 0.689 (95% CI: 0.609-0.769). The Positive Predictive Value for a cut-off score of 5 were 15.5%, 11.7% & 5.7% for both conditions combined, prediabetes & diabetes respectively. The equivalent values for a cut-off score of 8 were 16.1%, 9.0% & 7.7%. The Negative Predictive Values were uniformly above 90%. Conclusions & Recommendations: The FINDRISC Score had a low predictive value for dysglycaemia in this sample and performed at a level of significance for IGT that is similar to other MENA countries, but did better for DM. A larger sample that included women is suggested, with a view of adjusting the Score to suit the local population.

Keywords: diabetes, FINDRISK, Libya, prediabetes

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Authors: Masri Baharom

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The purpose of the study is to identify the age group of children 9 who have experienced delays in gross motor development. Instrument used in this study is Test Gross Motor Development / TGMD-2 (Ulrich, 2000) which was adopted at the international level. Gross motor development data were obtained by video recording (Sony (DRC-SR42 with a 40x optical zoom capability, and software Ultimate Studio 14) on locomotor and manipulative skills. A total n = 192 persons, children of 9 years (9.30 ± .431) at Sekolah Kebangsaan Mutiara Perdana, Bayan Lepas, Penang were involved as subjects. Children age 9 years experienced delays AELS (4.61 ± .69), AEMS (5:52 ± .62) and GMDQ (7.26 ± .2.14). The findings based on descriptive rating indicated that the performance of children age 9 years acquired low levels of AELS, MSS, AEMS and very low in LSS and GMDS.

Keywords: gross motor development score, locomotor standard score, age equivalent locomotor score, manipulative standard score, age equivalent manipulative score

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Authors: Suparat Niwitpong, Sa-aat Niwitpong

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Statistical inference of normal mean with known coefficient of variation has been investigated recently. This phenomenon occurs normally in environment and agriculture experiments when the scientist knows the coefficient of variation of their experiments. In this paper, we constructed new confidence intervals for the normal population mean with known coefficient of variation. We also derived analytic expressions for the coverage probability of each confidence interval. To confirm our theoretical results, Monte Carlo simulation will be used to assess the performance of these intervals based on their coverage probabilities.

Keywords: confidence interval, coverage probability, expected length, known coefficient of variation

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Authors: Volker Wannack

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The aim of this paper is to present a concept for addressing the Oracle Problem in the context of hydrogen production using renewable energy sources. The proposed approach relies on the authentication of the electricity used for hydrogen production by multiple surrounding actors with similar electricity generation facilities, which attest to the authenticity of the electricity production. The concept introduces an Authenticity Score assigned to each certificate, as well as a Trust Score assigned to each witness. Each certificate must be attested by different actors with a sufficient Trust Score to achieve an Authenticity Score above a predefined threshold, thereby demonstrating that the produced hydrogen is indeed "green."

Keywords: hydrogen, blockchain, sustainability, structural change

Procedia PDF Downloads 33

Authors: Salehah Tahkin, Norlaila Mustafa, Dayang Anita Abdul Aziz

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Knowledge of medical ethics is important to all practitioners so the best care can be delivered to all patients through safe practice. Surgeons are not exceptions to this. Knowledge, attitude, and practice (KAP) of medical ethics among paediatric surgeons and trainees in Malaysia has not been evaluated before. This study aims to determine the level of KAP regarding medical ethics among these groups. This was a cross-sectional study involving three groups of samples, i.e., paediatric surgeons (PS), paediatric surgical trainees (PST), and medical officers with a special interest in paediatric surgery (MO). A validated KAP questionnaire was used. Standard formulas were used to calculate objective indexes for measuring KAP, which were then compared for statistical significance across different sample groups; p less than 0.05 is taken as significant. The index is rated into 5 classes using a score of 0 to 10, i.e., poor (1-2.99), fair (3-4.99), good (5-6.99), very good (7-8.99), and excellent (9-10). There were 117 samples, i.e., PS n=45 (38.5%), PST n=25 (21.3%), and MO n=47 (40.2%). For knowledge, all three groups display a good index score (mean score of 5.44). For attitude, PS and MO also display an index score of good (mean score of 5.81), while the PST index score was fair (4.82). For practice, our study shows a highest score of 7.14 (very good) among PST. However, these differences were not statistically significant (p> 0.05). Conclusion: Training in paediatric surgery must continue to emphasize professionalism and medical ethics education to deliver the best health care services.

Keywords: KAP, medical ethics, paediatric, surgeons, trainees

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Authors: X. L. Nguyen, T. Y. Chou, F. Y. Min, F. C. Lin, T. V. Hoang, Y. M. Huang

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In Vietnam, land use planning is utilized as an efficient tool for the local government to adjust land use. However, planned locations are facing disapproval from people who live near these planned sites because of environmental problems. The selection of these locations is normally based on the subjective opinion of decision-makers and is not supported by any scientific methods. Many researchers have applied Multi-Criteria Analysis (MCA) methods in which Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) is the most popular techniques in combination with Fuzzy set theory for the subject of rationality assessment of land use planning locations. In this research, the Fuzzy set theory and Analytic Network Process (ANP) multi-criteria-based technique were used for the assessment process. The Fuzzy Analytic Hierarchy Process was also utilized, and the output results from two methods were compared to extract the differences. The 20 planned landfills in Hung Ha district, Thai Binh province, Vietnam was selected as a case study. The comparison results indicate that there are different between weights computed by AHP and ANP methods and the assessment outputs produced from these two methods also slight differences. After evaluation of existing planned sites, some potential locations were suggested to the local government for possibility of land use planning adjusts.

Keywords: Analytic Hierarchy Process, Analytic Network Process, Fuzzy set theory, land use planning

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Authors: E. Rama Devi Jothilingam

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Diabetes mellitus is now one of the most common non communicable diseases globally. India leads the world with largest number of diabetic subjects earning the title "diabetes capital of the world". In order to reduce the mortality rate, a fuzzy expert system is designed to predict the severity of cardiac and renal problems of diabetic patients using fuzzy logic. Since uncertainty is inherent in medicine, fuzzy logic is used in this research work to remove the inherent fuzziness of linguistic concepts and uncertain status in diabetes mellitus which is the prime cause for the cardiac arrest and renal failure. In this work, the controllable risk factors "blood sugar, insulin, ketones, lipids, obesity, blood pressure and protein/creatinine ratio" are considered as input parameters and the "the stages of cardiac" (SOC)" and the stages of renal" (SORD) are considered as the output parameters. The triangular membership functions are used to model the input and output parameters. The rule base is constructed for the proposed expert system based on the knowledge from the medical experts. Mamdani inference engine is used to infer the information based on the rule base to take major decision in diagnosis. Mean of maximum is used to get a non fuzzy control action that best represent possibility distribution of an inferred fuzzy control action. The proposed system also classifies the patients with high risk and low risk using fuzzy c means clustering techniques so that the patients with high risk are treated immediately. The system is validated with Matlab and is used as a tracking system with accuracy and robustness.

Keywords: Diabetes mellitus, fuzzy expert system, Mamdani, MATLAB

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Authors: Nafisa Banu

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The present study is an attempt to analyze the regional disparities in the level of education in West Bengal. The data based on secondary sources obtained from a census of India. The study is divided into four sections. The first section presents introductions, objectives and brief descriptions of the study area, second part discuss the methodology and data base, while third and fourth comprise the empirical results, interpretation, and conclusion respectively. For showing the level of educational development, 8 indicators have been selected and Z- score and composite score techniques have been applied. The present study finds out there are large variations of educational level due to various historical, economical, socio-cultural factors of the study area.

Keywords: education, regional disparity, literacy rate, Z-score, composite score

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Authors: Seon Soon Choi

Abstract:

It is necessary to predict a fatigue crack propagation life for estimation of structural integrity. Because of an uncertainty and a randomness of a structural behavior, it is also required to analyze stochastic characteristics of the fatigue crack propagation life at a specified fatigue crack size. The essential purpose of this study is to present the good probability distribution fit for the fatigue crack propagation life at a specified fatigue crack size in magnesium alloys under various fatigue load ratio conditions. To investigate a stochastic crack growth behavior, fatigue crack propagation experiments are performed in laboratory air under several conditions of fatigue load ratio using AZ31. By Anderson-Darling test, a goodness-of-fit test for probability distribution of the fatigue crack propagation life is performed and the good probability distribution fit for the fatigue crack propagation life is presented. The effect of load ratio on variability of fatigue crack propagation life is also investigated.

Keywords: fatigue crack propagation life, load ratio, magnesium alloys, probability distribution

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Authors: Mohammed A. Hajeeh

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This paper examines the behavior of a system, which upon failure is either replaced with certain probability p or imperfectly repaired with probability q. The system is analyzed using Kolmogorov's forward equations method; the analytical expression for the steady state availability is derived as an indicator of the system’s performance. It is found that the analysis becomes more complex as the number of imperfect repairs increases. It is also observed that the availability increases as the number of states and replacement probability increases. Using such an approach in more complex configurations and in dynamic systems is cumbersome; therefore, it is advisable to resort to simulation or heuristics. In this paper, an example is provided for demonstration.

Keywords: repairable models, imperfect, availability, exponential distribution

Procedia PDF Downloads 263

Authors: Ahmad Hashim, Masri Baharom

Abstract:

The purpose of the study is to identify the age group of children 9 who have experienced delays in gross motor development. Instrument used in this study is Test Gross Motor Development / TGMD-2 (Ulrich, 2000) which was adopted at the international level. Gross motor development data were obtained by video recording (Sony (DRC-SR42 with a 40x optical zoom capability, and software Ultimate Studio 14) on locomotor and manipulative skills. A total n = 192 persons, children of 9 years (9.30 ± .431) at Sekolah Kebangsaan Mutiara Perdana, Bayan Lepas, Penang were involved as subjects. Children age 9 years experienced delays AELS (4.61 ± .69), AEMS (5:52 ± .62) and GMDQ (7.26 ± .2.14). The findings based on descriptive rating indicated that the performance of children age 9 years acquired low levels of AELS, MSS, AEMS and very low in LSS and GMDS.

Keywords: gross motor development score, locomotor standard score, age equivalent locomotor score, manipulative standard score, age equivalent manipulative score

Procedia PDF Downloads 384

Authors: Hamidreza Fallah Lajimi, Elham Karami, Alireza Arab, Fatemeh Alinasab

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Being responsive is an increasingly important skill for firms in today’s global economy; thus firms must be agile. Naturally, it follows that an organization’s agility depends on its supply chain being agile. However, achieving supply chain agility is a function of other abilities within the organization. This paper analyses results from a survey of 71 Iran manufacturing companies in order to identify some of the factors for agile organizations in managing their supply chains. Then we classification this company in four cluster with fuzzy c-mean technique and with Four validations functional determine automatically the optimal number of clusters.

Keywords: agile supply chain, clustering, fuzzy clustering, business engineering

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Authors: Mahdi Alshamasin, Riad Al-Kasasbeh, Nikolay Korenevskiy

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We apply mathematical models for the interaction of the internal and biologically active points of meridian structures. Amongst the diseases for which reflex diagnostics are effective are those of the stomach disease. It is shown that use of fuzzy logic decision-making yields good results for the prediction and early diagnosis of gastrointestinal tract diseases, depending on the reaction energy of biologically active points (acupuncture points). It is shown that good results for the prediction and early diagnosis of diseases from the reaction energy of biologically active points (acupuncture points) are obtained by using fuzzy logic decision-making.

Keywords: acupuncture points, fuzzy logic, diagnostically important points (DIP), confidence factors, membership functions, stomach diseases

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Authors: Busaba Phurksaphanrat

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This research proposes a pre-emptive fuzzy goal programming model for multi-objective multi-mode resource constrained project scheduling problem. The objectives of the problem are minimization of the total time and the total cost of the project. Objective in a multi-mode resource-constrained project scheduling problem is often a minimization of make-span. However, both time and cost should be considered at the same time with different level of important priorities. Moreover, all elements of cost functions in a project are not included in the conventional cost objective function. Incomplete total project cost causes an error in finding the project scheduling time. In this research, pre-emptive fuzzy goal programming is presented to solve the multi-objective multi-mode resource constrained project scheduling problem. It can find the compromise solution of the problem. Moreover, it is also flexible in adjusting to find a variety of alternative solutions.

Keywords: multi-mode resource constrained project scheduling problem, fuzzy set, goal programming, pre-emptive fuzzy goal programming

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Authors: David G. Maxinez, Andrés Ferreyra Ramírez, Liliana Castillo Sánchez, Nancy Adán Mendoza, Carlos Aviles Cruz

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This research describes the use of fuzzy logic in detection, assessment, analysis and evaluation of children with behavioral disorders. It shows how to acquire and analyze ambiguous, vague and full of uncertainty data coming from the input variables to get an accurate assessment result for each of the typologies presented by children with behavior problems. Behavior disorders analyzed in this paper are: hyperactivity (H), attention deficit with hyperactivity (DAH), conduct disorder (TD) and attention deficit (AD).

Keywords: alteration, behavior, centroid, detection, disorders, economic, fuzzy logic, hyperactivity, impulsivity, social

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Authors: E. Mike Dison, T. Pathinathan

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Computing with Words (CWW) and Possibilistic Relational Universal Fuzzy (PRUF) are the two concepts which widely represent and measure the vaguely defined natural phenomenon. In this paper, we study the positional alteration of the phrases by which the impact of a natural language proposition gets affected and/or modified. We observe the gradations due to sensitivity/feeling of a statement towards the positional alterations. We derive the classification and modification of the meaning of words due to the positional alteration. We present the results with reference to set theoretic interpretations.

Keywords: appositive, computing with words, possibilistic relational universal fuzzy (PRUF), semantic sentiment analysis, set-theoretic interpretations

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Authors: U. Chattaraj, D. Meena

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Growth of traffic brings various negative effects, such as road accidents. To avoid such problems, a model is developed for the purpose of highway safety. In such areas, fuzzy logic is the most well-known simulation in the larger field. A model is accomplished for hilly and steep terrain based on Fuzzy Inference System (FIS), for which output is super elevation and input data is horizontal radius, vertical gradient, accident rate (AR). This result shows that the system can be efficaciously applied as for highway safety tool distinguishing hazards components correlated to the characteristics of the highway and has a great influence to the making of decision for accident precaution in transportation models. From this model, a positive relationship between geometric elements, accident rate, and super elevation is also identified.

Keywords: accident rate, fuzzy inference system, fuzzy logic, gradient, radius, super elevation

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Authors: Hatem A. El-Mezayen, Hossam Darwesh

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Background/Aim: Hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) is often diagnosed at advanced stage where effective therapies are lacking. Identification of new scoring system is needed to discriminate HCC patients from those with chronic liver disease. Based on the link between vascular endothelial growth factor (VEGF) and HCC progression, we aimed to develop a novel score based on combination of VEGF and routine laboratory tests for early prediction of HCC. Methods: VEGF was assayed for HCC group (123), liver cirrhosis group (210) and control group (50) by Enzyme Linked Immunosorbent Assay (ELISA). Data from all groups were retrospectively analyzed including α feto protein (AFP), international normalized ratio (INR), albumin and platelet count, transaminases, and age. Areas under ROC curve were used to develop the score. Results: A novel index named hepatocellular carcinoma-vascular endothelial growth factor score (HCC-VEGF score)=1.26 (numerical constant) + 0.05 ×AFP (U L-1)+0.038 × VEGF(ng ml-1)+0.004× INR –1.02 × Albumin (g l-1)–0.002 × Platelet count × 109 l-1 was developed. HCC-VEGF score produce area under ROC curve of 0.98 for discriminating HCC patients from liver cirrhosis with sensitivity of 91% and specificity of 82% at cut-off 4.4 (ie less than 4.4 considered cirrhosis and greater than 4.4 considered HCC). Conclusion: Hepatocellular carcinoma-VEGF score could replace AFP in HCC screening and follow up of cirrhotic patients.

Keywords: Hepatocellular carcinoma, cirrhosis, HCV, diagnosis, tumor markers

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Authors: Alireza Gholami, Amir H. D. Markazi

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In this paper, an observer-based direct adaptive fuzzy sliding mode (OAFSM) algorithm is proposed. In the proposed algorithm, the zero-input dynamics of the plant could be unknown. The input connection matrix is used to combine the sliding surfaces of individual subsystems, and an adaptive fuzzy algorithm is used to estimate an equivalent sliding mode control input directly. The fuzzy membership functions, which were determined by time consuming try and error processes in previous works, are adjusted by adaptive algorithms. The other advantage of the proposed controller is that the input gain matrix is not limited to be diagonal, i.e. the plant could be over/under actuated provided that controllability and observability are preserved. An observer is constructed to directly estimate the state tracking error, and the nonlinear part of the observer is constructed by an adaptive fuzzy algorithm. The main advantage of the proposed observer is that, the measured outputs is not limited to the first entry of a canonical-form state vector. The closed-loop stability of the proposed method is proved using a Lyapunov-based approach. The proposed method is applied numerically on a multi-link robot manipulator, which verifies the performance of the closed-loop control. Moreover, the performance of the proposed algorithm is compared with some conventional control algorithms.

Keywords: adaptive algorithm, fuzzy systems, membership functions, observer

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Authors: Thierry Ganomanana, Dominique Hervé, Solo Randriamahaleo

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Management of Malagasy renewable natural re-sources allows, in the case of forest, the mobilization of several actors with norms and/or territory. The interaction in this socio-ecosystem is represented by a graph of two different relationships in which most of action chains, from individual activities under the continuous of forest dynamic and discrete interventions by institutional, are also studied. The fuzzy set theory is adapted to graduate the elements of the set Illegal Activities in the space of sanction’s institution by his severity and in the space of degradation of forest by his extent.

Keywords: fuzzy set, graph, institution, renewable resource, system

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Authors: Julio Vicente Cateia

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This paper aims to assess the role of informality and trade facilitation on the export probability of Guinea-Bissau. We include informality in the Féchet function, which gives the expression for the country's supply probability. We find that Guinea-Bissau is about 7.2% less likely to export due to the 1% increase in informality. The export's probability increases by about 1.7%, 4%, and 1.1% due to a 1% increase in trade facilitation, R&D stock, and year of education. These results are significant at the usual levels. We suggest a development agenda aimed at reducing the level of informality in this country.

Keywords: development, trade, informality, trade facilitation, economy of Guinea-Bissau

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Authors: Nafiseh Mollaei, Reihaneh Kardehi Moghaddam

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In case of Diabetes Mellitus the controlling of insulin is very difficult. This illness is an incurable disease affecting millions of people worldwide. Glucose is a sugar which provides energy to the cells. Insulin is a hormone which supports the absorption of glucose. Fuzzy control strategy is attractive for glucose control because it mimics the first and second phase responses that the pancreas beta cells use to control glucose. We propose two control algorithms a type-1 fuzzy controller and an interval type-2 fuzzy method for the insulin infusion. The closed loop system has been simulated for different patients with different parameters, in present of the food intake disturbance and it has been shown that the blood glucose concentrations at a normoglycemic level of 110 mg/dl in the reasonable amount of time. This paper deals with type 1 diabetes as a nonlinear model, which has been simulated in MATLAB-SIMULINK environment. The novel model, termed the Augmented Minimal Model is used in the simulations. There are some uncertainties in this model due to factors such as blood glucose, daily meals or sudden stress. In addition to eliminate the effects of uncertainty, different control methods may be utilized. In this article, fuzzy controller performance were assessed in terms of its ability to track a normoglycemic set point (110 mg/dl) in response to a [0-10] g meal disturbance. Finally, the development reported in this paper is supposed to simplify the insulin delivery, so increasing the quality of life of the patient.

Keywords: interval type-2, fuzzy controller, minimal augmented model, uncertainty

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Authors: Arindam Chaudhuri

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The research presents epsilon- hierarchical fuzzy twin support vector regression (epsilon-HFTSVR) based on epsilon-fuzzy twin support vector regression (epsilon-FTSVR) and epsilon-twin support vector regression (epsilon-TSVR). Epsilon-FTSVR is achieved by incorporating trapezoidal fuzzy numbers to epsilon-TSVR which takes care of uncertainty existing in forecasting problems. Epsilon-FTSVR determines a pair of epsilon-insensitive proximal functions by solving two related quadratic programming problems. The structural risk minimization principle is implemented by introducing regularization term in primal problems of epsilon-FTSVR. This yields dual stable positive definite problems which improves regression performance. Epsilon-FTSVR is then reformulated as epsilon-HFTSVR consisting of a set of hierarchical layers each containing epsilon-FTSVR. Experimental results on both synthetic and real datasets reveal that epsilon-HFTSVR has remarkable generalization performance with minimum training time.

Keywords: regression, epsilon-TSVR, epsilon-FTSVR, epsilon-HFTSVR

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Authors: Nicholas Marinus Batt, Angus Radford, Khaled Saraya

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Pulmonary Embolus Severity Index (PESI) score is a well-validated decision-making score grading mortality rates (MR) in patients with a suspected or confirmed diagnosis of pulmonary embolism (PE) into 5 classes. Thirty and 90 days MR in class I and II are lower allowing the treatment of these patients as outpatients. In a London District General Hospital (DGH) with mixed ethnicity and high disease burden, we looked at MR at 1, 3, and 7 days of all PESI score classes. Our pilot study of 112 patients showed MR of 0% in class I, II, and III. The current study includes positive Computed Tomographic Scans (CT scans) for PE over the following three years (total of 555). MR was calculated for all PESI score classes at 1, 3 & 7 days. Thirty days MR was additionally calculated to validate the study. Our initial results so far are in line with our pilot studies. Further subgroup analysis accounting for the local co-morbidities and disease burden and its impact on the MR will be undertaken.

Keywords: Pulmonary Embolism (PE), Pulmonary Embolism Severity Index (PESI) score, mortality rate (MR), CT pulmonary artery

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